Improve your odds of living forever

Improve Your Odds of Living Forever

Presented by Richard Junker
Waterloo Optimists
Waterloo, IA
July 27, 2010

Agenda
•Mortality Improvement
•HistoricalTrends
•Causes of Death
•Improving Your Own Mortality Profile
•Conclusion: Invest in Yourself--Exercise

11/13/2012

Mortality Improvement

Richard Junker 11/13/2012

Historical Trends
______________________________________________

U.S. Population Life Expectancy by
Calendar Year


U.S. Total Life Expectancy at Birth by
Year505560657075808590193519371939
1941194319451947194919511953195519
5719591961196319651967196919711973
1975197719791981198319851871989199
1199319951997999200120032005Calend
ar


Historical Trends
_________________
U.S. Population Mortality Rates by Calendar Year


U.S. Population Mortality Rates by Calendar Year


Take-way:
Mortality has been continuously improving for all age groups.

Historical Trends
_________________

U.S. Population Life Tables –dx Curves
(dx ~Number dying each year of original 100% of lives)


Historical Trends

_________________
U.S. Population Life Tables –dxCurves


Historical Trends
_________________

Mortality Trends by Nation


Historical Trends
_________________

Causes of Death


Mortality Improvement
_________________

Causes of Death


Take-away
CDC estimates that nearly 1 out of every 5 U.S. deaths (or over
400,000) is due to smoking-related causes
•Primary causes include lung and related cancers, heart
disease, and respiratory diseases

Gray area portrays current percentages alive at each attained age, while the
colored areas show additional life years that would result if each of the three
primary cause of death were removed.

Slowing the Slide
_________________
Pace of decline and how to mute it


Pace of Physical Decline in the US Male
Maximum Weights
for Health (Body-Mass Index) One Six-Foot Man
Through the Ages
HT. AGE: 25 35 45 55 65 Here's how a reasonably tall, mostly fit man
5'8" 153 163 174 184 196 would track, BMI-wise, over most of his adult life:
5'9" 157 168 179 190 201
5'10" 162 173 184 195 207 AGE 35 45 55 65
5'11“ 167 178 190 201 213 WEIGHT 183 195 207 219
6'0" 171 183 195 207 219 BMI 25.0 26.5 28.0 30.0
6'1" 176 188 200 213 225

Note: As these are maximum
healthy weights, subtract three to
Male pattern baldness
eight pounds for perhaps a safer is apparent in:
target. --BOB CONDOR, Esquire, AGE 25 35 45 65
May 2003 % OF MEN 12 37 45 65

Necessary but not Sufficient:
Health and Long Life
While long and
healthy lives may
not guarantee
happiness, many
might accept
them as
necessary
conditions.

Obesity is the Successor to Smoking as
the Great Drag on Longevity

•Next after smoking, lifestyle behaviors most threatening our health
are poor diet and inadequate exercise leading to obesity.
•Obesity is becoming the new smoking.
•In the early 1960s, the Surgeon General classified only 13 percent
of
U.S. adults as obese, i.e., (BMI) exceeded 30.
•By 2005, more than one-fourth of all adults met this criterion.
•Without a reversal in this trend, obesity could lead to a decline in
U.S. life expectancy for the first time since the mid-19th century.
•The health threat is especially ominous for children and
adolescents.

The cure for the ills of health care
financing lay in the following simple,
commonsense steps for individuals to
take on more personal responsibility for
their own wellness:
i. Don't smoke vi. Buckle up
ii. Avoid habit-forming vii. Exercise
drugs regularly
iii. Stay lean viii. Sleep soundly
iv. Monitor blood pressure ix. Drink
and cholesterol responsibly
v. Eat sensibly x. Manage stress

The Wages of Exercise is Life.
Richard 6:23

•Put a price tag on the savings you will realize from
avoiding major degenerative diseases in your later
years of life. Say $500,000.
•Assume you exercise 30 minutes a day for 50 years,
doing exactly what Dr. Deepak Chopra and Dr. Oz tell
you to do to be healthy.
•That’s 180 hours a year, or 9,000 hours of exercise in
your adult lifetime before age 70.
•Your rate of pay for exercising comes to $55 per hour.
•How much do you make an hour at work?

Decision Point:
What should you do with your next free hour–
grub some more assets with mental work, relax
with Homer Simpson, or head to the gym?


Conclusion—The Choice is Yours:
Adopt a Live-Clean Diet and
Exercise Thirty Minutes a Day

From This: To this:


Ground We Covered
•Mortality Improvement--No, we will not live forever!
•Historical Trends-- It’s getting better all the time.
•Causes of Death--By surprise, please!
•Improving Your Own Mortality Profile--Just do it!
•Conclusion: Invest in Yourself--Exercise

11/13/2012

Sources
•Mortality Improvement
Doug Knowling, FSA, MAAA, Senior Vice President and Chief Actuary and
Tim Rozar, FSA, MAAA, Vice President and Actuary
RGA U.S. Division
May 14, 2008

•How A Man Ages
May 1, 2002, 12:00 AM
http://www.esquire.com/features/ESQ0502-MAY_HAMA_1?click=main_sr
By Curtis Pesmen
May 1, 2003, 12:00 AM
http://www.esquire.com/ESQ0503-MAY_AGES?click=main_sr

•Healthy People 2010: A Systematic Approach to Health Improvement
http://www.healthypeople.gov/document/html/uih/uih_2.htm


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