The document discusses various possible futures for Bitcoin, ranging from failure to widespread global adoption. It outlines challenges like powerful opponents in the banking and government sectors that could launch attacks on the Bitcoin protocol or price. However, it also presents potential pathways to success, such as a stable price leading to Bitcoin becoming a standard part of the global economy. Ultimately, the document considers a variety of long-term scenarios for Bitcoin through the next century as technology and adoption changes.

1. Ron Gross
Bitcoil

3.  4 years into the adoption curve
 X1000 price increase since 2010
 Services
 Legal / regulatory

7.  Future predictions affect
the present
 Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped
Currency

8.  Bitcoin fails
 Bitcoin stagnates
 Bitcoin wins

10.  Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies
 Payment processors
 Banks
 Governments ?
 Various attacks are possible
 Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%)
 Price manipulation
 Regulatory attacks
 Hacking

11.  People lose faith in Bitcoin
 A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0
 The way down might take a while, like
the way up

13.  Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level
 It becomes some small percent of the world
economy
 Used for some purposes, mostly on the
internet
 Growth in user base and monetary value halts

14.  Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is
using it.
 Bitcoin users can still:
 Hold their own money
 Send it to whoever they want
 Use advanced features
 People move in and out of the Bitcoin
economy at will

16.  More and more people see the benefits
 They trade Fiat money for BTC
 Bitcoin is a major part of the world
economy

17.  Banks and payment processors
cooperate instead of compete
 Insured BTC deposits
 Government issues Fiat backed by BTC
(Gold Standard 2.0)

18.  Bitcoin becomes boring
 Several great wallets to choose from
 Everything JustWorks

19.  Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank
 Distributed exchanges
 Lower exchange fees
 Managed wallets

20.  Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency
 Ripple is also a competitor
 Maybe something else entirely?

21.  Block reward drops to zero around 2050
 Transaction fee structure change
 Hash function upgraded
(Quantum resistant)
 Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)
 Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)

22. ron.gross@gmail.com
ripper234.com/about

23.  https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
 http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an-
estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png
 https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist
 http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
 http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-
users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1
&timespan=all&scale=1&address=