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ANALYST: Kiril Mugerman SECTOR: Mining kmugerman@iagto.ca (514) 284 4175
What is graphite?
Why are companies suddenly exploring for it?
Why the rush?
These are some of the questions that investors have already found answers to
through the multitude of companies presently active in the sector. However, this
is not all what investors want to know. What has not been properly addressed is
what makes one deposit stand out above others, how to recognize a company
with the right assets and what to expect from exploration companies in the next
12 to 24 months.
In this report we review the fundamentals behind graphite supply and demand
which are ultimately pointing towards supply shortage in the upcoming years.
Our model for future graphite supply and demand suggests that a minimum of 4
new mines and as many as 23 will be needed to go into production outside of
India and China between now and 2020 to satisfy the growth in demand.
CONCLUSION
This report reviews 36 companies and 98 properties which are presently being
explored for graphite across the globe. We separate these companies based on the
stage of their project into three risk groups. The Top Tier is made up of 3
companies with advanced projects and 3 with historical resources that could be
quickly upgraded to 43-101 status. This group offers investors both short and
long term growth.
The Mid Tier includes 12 companies with established targets, most of them drill
ready. We expect several large discoveries to come from this group that could
offer the largest return for investors in the graphite sector.
The Lower Tier comprises the remaining 18 companies forming the highest risk
investment at the moment in the sector.
Disclaimer: The opinions put forth in this report are those of the mining analyst. Great care should
be taken when making judgments based on this report. Please see the legal disclosures at the end of
the report for more information.
May 1st
, 2012
GRAPHITE
GRAPHITE –Black Gold of the 21st
Century
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Company
Flagship
Project
Location
M&I
(Mt)
M&I
Grade
(%Cg)
Inferred
(Mt)
Inferred
Grade
(%Cg)
Recovery
(%)
Purity
(%C)
Flake Distribution
Northern Graphite Corp. Bissett Creek ON, Canada 25.98 1.81 55.04 1.57 97.1 96.7 80% @ +32/+50/+80
Focus Metals Inc. Lac Knife QC, Canada 4.94 15.76 3.00 15.58 85.9 N/A 85% @ +48/+65/+150/+200
Talga Gold Ltd. Nunasvaara Sweden 3.6 23 N/A N/A 87% @ +80/+140
Flinders Resrouces Ltd. Woxna Sweden 6.93* 8.82* N/A 94* 68% @ +80/+200*
Uragold Bay Resources Inc. Asbury Mine QC, Canada 0.58* 10* 85* 90* 75% @ +80/+200*
Standard Graphite Corp. Mousseau East QC, Canada 1.11* 8.28* N/A N/A 60% @ +100*
Northern Graphite Corp. (TSX.V: NGC)
Price (04/30/2012) $2.22
Avg. Volume 90 Days 802,600
52 week High/Low $3.42 - $0.71
Shares Outstanding (M) 45.6
Market Cap ($M) 100.3
Focus Metals Inc. (TSX.V: FMS)
Price (04/30/2012) $0.98
Avg. Volume 90 Days 619,802
52 week High/Low $1.33 - $0.52
Shares Outstanding (M) 90.4
Market Cap ($M) 92.2
Talga Gold Ltd. (ASX: TLG)
Price (04/30/2012) $0.51
Avg. Volume 90 Days 261,032
52 week High/Low $0.52 - $0.12
Shares Outstanding (M) 46.4
Market Cap ($M) 21.8
Flinders Resources Ltd. (TSX.V: FDR)
Price (04/30/2012) $2.16
Avg. Volume 90 Days 213,802
52 week High/Low $3.02 - $1.60
Shares Outstanding (M) 44.5
Market Cap ($M) 96.2
Uragold Bay Resources (TSX.V: UBR)
Price (04/30/2012) $0.035
Avg. Volume 90 Days 682,611
52 week High/Low $0.07 - $0.02
Shares Outstanding (M) 156.1
Market Cap ($M) 5.5
Standard Graphite Corp. (TSX.V: SGH)
Price (04/30/2012) $0.465
Avg. Volume 90 Days 298,554
52 week High/Low $1.08 - $0.12
Shares Outstanding (M) 22.4
Market Cap ($M) 10.4
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
2 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Table of Contents
CARBON –OIL, DIAMONDS, GRAPHITE AND MORE.......................................................... 3
PROPERTIES OF GRAPHITE...................................................................................................... 4
TYPES OF GRAPHITE AND GRAPHITE DEPOSITS.............................................................. 4
GROUP I (FLAKE) – METAMORPHOSED SILICA & CARBONATE RICH SEDIMENTARY ROCKS ........................5
GROUP II (AMORPHOUS) – METAMORPHOSED COAL / CARBON RICH SEDIMENTS........................................6
GROUP III (VEIN / FLAKE / AMORPHOUS) – HYDROTHERMAL / SKARN / MAGMATIC....................................6
LAB WORK – GRADE, SIZE AND METALLURGY................................................................. 6
GRADE DETERMINATION .............................................................................................................................. 6
FLAKE SIZE DETERMINATION .......................................................................................................................7
PROCESSING AND BENEFICIATION.................................................................................................................8
USES OF GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 9
SYNTHETIC / NATURAL .................................................................................................................................9
SPHERICAL FLAKE GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 10
EXPANDED FLAKE GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 10
GRAPHITE IN BATTERIES & ENERGY STORAGE APPLICATIONS................................................................... 11
GRAPHITE IN NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS....................................................................................................... 11
GRAPHENE – THE MIRACLE MATERIAL ...................................................................................................... 12
GLOBAL RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND FUTURE TRENDS.......................................... 14
GRAPHITE PRICES ..................................................................................................................... 17
WHY THE RUSH FOR LARGE FLAKE - THE COST FACTOR.......................................... 19
GRAPHITE – FROM EXPLORATION TO MINING............................................................... 20
KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAPHITE DEPOSITS ........................................................................................ 21
GRAPHITE EXPLORATION - CLASS OF 2012 ................................................................................................. 22
CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................... 28
LEGAL DISCLOSURE ................................................................................................................. 29
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CARBON –OIL, DIAMONDS, GRAPHITE AND MORE
Carbon forms a multitude of compounds both organic (e.g. oil, gas) and
inorganic (e.g. calcite, carbon dioxide) but additionally, takes on crystalline
forms composed purely of carbon (diamond, graphite and coal). These
minerals are among several carbon allotropes, or structural variations of the
element carbon. Other allotropes include graphene, fullerenes and other
structures which are part of a large area of research in the fields of
nanomaterials and high-technology. All allotropes form distinct shapes and
exhibit different physical properties (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Carbon allotropes
Some allotrope structures of carbon: a) diamond; b) individual layers are graphene / combined layers
form graphite; c) lonsdaleite; d-f) fullerenes; g) amorphous carbon / coal; h) carbon nanotube
Source: Wikipedia: Carbon
Graphite was already known to the prehistoric man, later used by the
Egyptians and it became well known in the 16th
century after the discovery of
the Borrowdale mine in England. Uses of graphite since then evolved from
the early refractory uses to pencils, applications in the steel manufacturing,
the electric industry and today in the energy storage applications.
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PROPERTIES OF GRAPHITE
Graphite is a non-metallic, opaque mineral of grey to black color with
metallic luster. It possesses properties of both metals and non-metals, which
make it ideal for many industrial applications. The mineral is flexible, soft
(1-2 on the Mohs scale), compressible and malleable. It has low frictional
resistance which gives it a greasy texture making it an efficient lubricant. It is
thermally and electrically conductive. Its melting point is above 3,550°C in a
non-oxidizing environment and the vaporization temperature is around
4500°C and mostly infusible. It is nontoxic, chemically inert and has high
resistance to corrosion. Graphite has low thermal expansion and shrinkage
with high thermal shock resistance. Graphite has low density (1.1-1.7 g/cm3
)
relative to conductive metals such as aluminum and copper. Ultimately, all
its properties vary depending on the purity and size of the graphite crystal. 1
TYPES OF GRAPHITE AND GRAPHITE DEPOSITS
Overall, natural graphite takes on three distinct types (flake, vein and
amorphous) that differ in purity, crystal size and shape and deposit style. All
three kinds form platy hexagonal crystals giving them their flaky appearance.
Amorphous graphite does not exhibit this texture due to the small size of the
crystals and instead, appears as massive graphite. In addition, there is
engineered synthetic graphite manufactured by calcination and subsequent
graphitization of petroleum coke with purity reaching up to 99.99% carbon.
The general requirements for the majority of graphite deposits are simple –
high grade metamorphism (prolonged heat exposure under high pressure
conditions) of carbonaceous or graphitic country rocks. These metamorphic
conditions are typically found where large mountain building events took
place in Earth’s history (e.g. the metasedimentary unit of the Grenville
Orogeny), high grade metamorphic basement rocks (e.g. the Precambrian
shield) or at the contacts of the two. Figure 2 shows some of the major
graphite provinces in relation to these geological occurrences. A variation of
factors such as the composition of the country rock, tectonic setting,
temperature, pressure, oxygen and other conditions will determine the
deposit style and the type of graphite present. A minority of graphite deposits
will form under different conditions such as contact metamorphism (skarn
style), hydrothermal, magmatic or residual styles of mineralization. The main
styles of deposit and the types of graphite associated with them are described
below2
.
1
Merchant Research & Consulting Ltd. Graphite market review 2011 and various graphite producers filings
2
Industrial Minerals & Rocks: commodities, markets and uses. 7th Edition, 2006
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Figure 2: Global potential for graphite deposits
Arrows are pointing to major graphite occurrences around the world
Source: USGS, IAS
GROUP I (FLAKE) – METAMORPHOSED SILICA & CARBONATE RICH SEDIMENTARY
ROCKS
This group of deposits constitutes a large part of global graphite production.
In the case of the silica metamorphosed rocks, the deposits are typically
associated with quartz-mica schist, quartzite and gneiss. These types of
deposits show average grades of around 10%-12% Cg (Graphitic carbon),
but can go as low as 2% and as high as 60% Cg. The mineralized zones are
in the form of lenses or layers depending on the degree of structural
deformation and range from flat lying to sub vertical. Even though these
deposits are known for their large flakes, crystal size actually varies a lot,
reflecting the grain size of the parent sedimentary rock. Graphite is relatively
well disseminated in, less deformed, lower grade layers with widths over
50m in thickness while lenses tend to be smaller and higher grade. In length,
individual deposits can extend over several thousands of meters. The purity
of the graphite in these deposits tends to be between 85% and 98% carbon.
Examples of such deposits in Canada are Bissett Creek and Lac Knife.
In the case of the carbonate rich metamorphosed rocks, the deposits are
hosted within marbles often intertwined with quartzite and gneiss. The
average grade in marble hosted deposits ranges from 1% to 10% Cg. These
deposits tend to be structurally complex with large variations in grade over
short distances. These deposits can produce the entire range of flake sizes
with purities between 85% and 98% carbon. The best example of such
deposits is the Lac-des-Iles mine in Quebec, Canada.
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GROUP II (AMORPHOUS) – METAMORPHOSED COAL / CARBON RICH SEDIMENTS
The amorphous graphite deposits are formed by metamorphism of coal or
carbon-rich sediments and constitute a large part of the global graphite
production. The product is microcrystalline graphite less than 70 microns
(200 Mesh) in size. Graphite is found in seams similar to coal deposits and is
often folded and faulted. The deposits typically range from 30% to over 90%
Cg with content of non-graphitic content varying significantly from one
deposit to another. Graphite from these deposits tends to be of lower purity
ranging from 60% to 90% carbon. Some of the best examples of such
deposits are found in China and Mexico.
GROUP III (VEIN / FLAKE / AMORPHOUS) – HYDROTHERMAL / SKARN / MAGMATIC
These deposits can be associated both with metamorphosed calcareous
sedimentary and with non-calcareous host rocks. The styles of mineralization
are uncommon, poorly understood and additionally, highly localized. The
best example is the high purity Sri Lanka deposits that run at over 90% Cg
with a purity of over 98% carbon. Depending on the host rock and the heat
source, these deposits can produce both amorphous graphite and flake
graphite (Woxna deposit, Sweden) with variable grades and purities. Overall,
these types of deposits have high variability in flake size, purity and resource
size.
LAB WORK – GRADE, SIZE AND METALLURGY
Graphite exploration companies often quote historical graphite grades, visual
grades and flake size. Unfortunately, this only works as a very rough
indication at best for both grade and flake size. We discuss below various
analytical methods presently accepted, what they are used for, what results to
expect and how to interpret them.
GRADE DETERMINATION
To determine the grade in either a surface or drilling sample, the most
accurate method used today is the LECO test which uses nitric acid digestion
versus in contrast to older methods like the LOI, Double-LOI and
Thermogravimetry which use heating and burning of the sample at different
temperatures under various atmospheric conditions. To illustrate, the Bissett
Creek deposit shows a 30% to 40% reduction in graphitic carbon content
when analyzed by LECO versus Double-LOI test.
As for visual estimations of grade and flake size, these can be highly
subjective estimates. In core, graphite tends to smear easily making it look
more graphitic than it actually is.
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FLAKE SIZE DETERMINATION
The next step in identifying the economics of the deposit is to determine the
flake size distribution. This is done in several steps starting with a
petrographic thin-section study and a microprobe analysis. This gives an
accurate indication of flake sizes in the sample, but in no way does this
indicate whether these flakes would be easily liberated, concentrated and
whether their size would be conserved. In many cases, the processing and
beneficiation procedure will break down some of the larger flakes and create
finer graphite particles. This study does provide an initial indication to the
initial grinding needed to liberate the flakes using floatation.
The flake sizes to be used in determining the economics of the deposit should
come from analyzing fully processed samples by either wet or dry screening,
with the final measurements done under a microscope.
Figure 3: (A) Thin section microprobe analysis (~ 150 Mesh)
(B) Processed dry (+12 Mesh) flake graphite
Source: (A) Zenyatta Ventures and (B) Northern Graphite fillings
The actual flake sizes are reported in either microns or mesh sizes and are
usually distributed between several sizes indicating what percentage of the
recovered graphite flakes fall into large, medium and fine categories. Several
versions of the categories exist with one of the more common ones presented
in Figure 4. The “+” and the “–” before the mesh size are used to describe a
range, with “+” indicating that particles larger than that specific size are
retained in a sieve while the “–” indicates that particles finer than that
specific size pass through the sieve. For example, “–48 +80” means that the
majority of the flakes are retained by the 80 mesh sieve but pass through the
48 mesh sieve.
A B
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Figure 4: Mesh Sizes & Graphite Classifications
Source: AGM Container Controls Inc.
PROCESSING AND BENEFICIATION
The recovery of flake graphite is generally achieved through flotation and
screening after primary crushing and grinding. Grinding size is project
specific and requires multiple optimization test runs to achieve the ideal
recovery and flake sizes. The main additive used in froth flotation to assist
graphite separation from gangue minerals is pine oil. The flotation process is
repeated several times in order to clean the graphite concentrate. Additional
upgrading of the carbon grade can be achieved through thermal treatment or
acid leaching.
The concentrate is analyzed for any undesirable oxides or trace metals, for
flake size distribution, humidity level and for final carbon grade – key
parameters that determine the selling price. That concentrate can then be
submitted to end-users for product evaluation.
The main problem expected at the beneficiation stage is complications with
overall recovery and of the larger graphite flakes. Recovery of the larger
graphite flakes might require significant finer grinding that will eventually
destroy the larger flakes and reduce the graphite selling price. Recoveries are
expected to exceed 90% in most cases but ore bodies flooded with silica or
which are significantly oxidized might show much lower recoveries. A
potential solution could be acid upgrading or acid liberation, but this is cost
intensive and will likely make a project uneconomical.
Graphite Classification
US Sieve
#
Mesh
Size
Microns
(µm)
Millimeters
(mm)
Common Material
4 4 4760 4.760
8 8 2380 2.380
16 14 1190 1.190 Typical ground coffee
25 24 707 0.707 Beach Sand
30 28 595 0.595 Table salt
50 48 297 0.297 Sugar
60 60 250 0.250 Fine Sand / Human hair
70 65 210 0.210
80 80 177 0.177
100 100 149 0.149
120 115 125 0.125
140 150 105 0.105
170 170 88 0.088
200 200 74 0.074 Portland Cement
230 250 63 0.063
325 325 44 0.044 Silt
400 400 37 0.037 Plant Pollen
1200 1200 12 0.012 Red Blood Cell
4800 4800 2 0.002 Cigarette Smoke
-100 TO +200 MESH
FINE FLAKE
-200 MESH
AMORPHOUS
-48 TO +80 MESH
LARGE FLAKE
-80 TO +100 MESH
MEDIUM FLAKE
+48 MESH
EXTRA LARGE
FLAKE
LARGERFLAKES
FINERFLAKES
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USES OF GRAPHITE
The uses of graphite, both existing and up and coming, have been
extensively presented by the exploration companies and analysts, discussed
by newsletter writers and graphite related websites. Graphite has been
referred to as the material used in every industry yet in small enough
quantities that no one talks about it. The major consumers of graphite are the
steel and refractory industries at over 40% of global production followed by
lubricants and expanded graphite applications and carbon products. The
biggest growth is currently in the energy applications. Graphite substitution
is not considered a major issue especially in the traditional refractory,
lubricant and steel industries. In the more emerging uses, graphite could
eventually be engineered out later in the future either due to high costs or due
to the emergence of a superior composite material.
Below is a short summary of some of these uses divided by synthetic, natural
or processed graphite together with a quick review of graphene and its
potential uses.
SYNTHETIC / NATURAL
There is a certain overlap in uses between natural and synthetic graphite that
is controlled by price and purity. Synthetic graphite, less conductive than the
natural counterpart, is significantly more expensive. It can be engineered to
the exact required specifications through one of its various forms, the main
kinds being:
Primary – 99.9% purity synthetic graphite is made in electric
furnaces from calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Main
usage is in electrodes and carbon brushes.
Secondary – powder or scrap synthetic graphite is produced from
heating calcined petroleum pitch. Main usage is in refractories.
Fibrous – produced from organic materials such as rayon, tar pitch
and other synthetic organic polymer resins. Main usage is in
insulation and as a reinforcement agent in polymer composites.
Alternatively, natural graphite can be upgraded to the same specification
through intensive thermal and chemical upgrading. China introduced low
cost chemical purification methods for fine graphite in the ‘90s but these
methods are not economical in Western countries. Since then, processing and
purification has been improved and projects with high purity large flake
graphite that require less purification have emerged. Natural graphite has
another advantage in that it can be processed into other forms such as
spherical and expanded graphite. Each of these forms changes graphite
properties and makes it more adaptable to specific industry requirements.
With these advancements, the overlap between synthetic and natural graphite
applications is expected to grow.
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SPHERICAL FLAKE GRAPHITE
Spherical flake graphite (SFG) is produced from milling flake graphite into
spherical shapes. Due to the strong anisotropic nature of graphite crystal, i.e.
its properties change from one plane to another, the process is needed for
applications where properties of the crystal flat plane (basal) are favored over
those of the crystal edges or vice versa (Figure 5). This is particularly
important for energy storage applications like Li-Ion batteries where graphite
is used as the anode material. The SFG can undergo additional surface
coating which stabilizes the material and enhances its performance. SFG sells
at a premium when compared to natural flakes with prices starting at $5000/t
for non-coated and increasing significantly for coated spherical graphite.
Production methods of SFG are well established and can be adopted by
mining operations to increase product value. The process is destructive in
terms of flake size as 30% to 70% can be lost to low value small size
fragments. Loss ratio is project specific.
Figure 5: Spherical flake graphite
Source: Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2003, 42, 4203-4206
EXPANDED FLAKE GRAPHITE
Expanded graphite or exfoliated graphite is produced by a chemical
treatment that forces the graphene layers in graphite to separate and therefore
expand in volume in an accordion-like fashion. Similarly to spherical
graphite, this is done to take advantage of one graphite crystal plane over the
other. In the case of expanded graphite, it often undergoes rolling to form
sheets or other mechanical processes to prepare the graphite for specific
applications.
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Figure 6: Expanded flake graphite – theory and microscope view
Source: Asbury Carbons filings
GRAPHITE IN BATTERIES & ENERGY STORAGE APPLICATIONS
Fuel cells, Li-Ion and other kinds of batteries and photovoltaic solar cells
represent some of the largest growth areas for graphite. Presently, the
industry is still evolving in terms of materials and compositions being highly
variable. Therefore flake, synthetic and polymers of graphite and other
materials have been used to date. For example, our research indicates that the
amount of graphite used in the anode of Li-Ion batteries varies based on
cathode and anode chemical composition, energy and size requirements and
other factors. Based on that, a light vehicle battery could consume as much as
20x more graphite as it does lithium metal or it could be as little as 5-10x.
R&D work is presently underway by many manufacturers experimenting
with graphite-silicate polymers, various spherical graphite blends, purities
and other materials. We expect graphite parameters in the batteries and
energy storage industries to fluctuate significantly over the next 2-5 years as
standards are adopted, fuel cells developed and electric, hybrid and plug-in
vehicles grow in demand.
GRAPHITE IN NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS
From the earliest days of the nuclear power industry, graphite was one of the
main components in the traditional reactor where it was used as the
moderator in nuclear control rods. For this particular application, high purity
graphite is required and therefore the material of choice is predominantly
synthetic. On the other hand, generation IV nuclear reactors (e.g. pebble bed
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reactor) are expected to be able to use both synthetic and natural graphite.
The fuel in the reactor is uranium dioxide particles coated by synthetic
graphite embedded in machined graphite spheres made of natural and
synthetic graphite. Exact ratios are hard to estimate as the only prototype is
still being developed in China. Industry estimates are that anywhere between
25% to 75% graphite is expected to be natural with the rest synthetic. This
can amount for as much as 200 tonnes of natural graphite for the
commissioning of the HTR-PM prototype in China and then an additional 40
to 70 tonnes to renew the fuel spheres. We believe it could become a high
volume application for natural graphite.
GRAPHENE – THE MIRACLE MATERIAL
An additional source of growth for graphite demand is the applications of
graphene, a one atom thick layer of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb
lattice that ultimately forms flakes of graphite when stacked together.
Produced in laboratories for the first time less than 10 years ago, the material
is a hot topic of research in the scientific community and in the R&D labs of
high tech companies. Graphene has a unique set of properties that show
potential to be used in a wide range of applications such as transistors, high
sensitivity sensors, transparent conductive films for touch screen displays,
more efficient solar cells and electrodes in energy storage devices. IBM has
already fabricated a simple graphene based integrated circuit and Samsung
has demonstrated a prototype flexible display, supposedly graphene based.
One of the main obstacles to all these applications becoming a reality is the
lack of economically viable large scale graphene production. Several
methods exist to produce both natural graphene (from flake graphite) and
synthetic graphene, but all have certain limitations. Graphene production is
still in its infancy and therefore it is hard to speculate which manufacturing
method, whether natural or synthetic, will become the method of choice.
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Figure 7: Graphite uses
– Major source; – minor source of graphite for that particular use
Source: SGL Group, Superior Graphite, Asbury carbons, Industrial Minerals and other graphite producers
public filings, IAS
Usage Synthetic Amorphous Flake Vein
Expanded
Graphite
Spherical
Graphite
Graphite fibers, nanotubes & nanoparticles - Insulation,
reinforcing agent in polymers for solar cells, electrical circuits,
military, wind energy, aerospace and automotive applications
Refractories - crucibles, carbon-magnesite bricks (liners in
electric arc furnaces and steel ladles), alumina-graphite casting
ware, gunning and ramming mixes for monolithic refractories,
stopper heads for steel ladles
Batteries & energy storage - batteries, fuel cells, photovoltaic
solar cells
Construction materials - fillers, infrared shielding, heat
conductivity, heating systems, etc…
Industrial paint pigment and coatings - high resistance to
weathering and inertness
Lubricants - used in forging, thread anti-seize agent, gear
lubricant in mining equipment, drilling mud additives
Electrical components, powder metallurgy, plastic and resin
additives
Carbon brushes and bearings in motors & generators
Electrodes for electric arc furnaces
Graphite grinding wheels - mirror grinding and polishing
Friction materials - brake linings, pads
Nuclear reactors
Foundry mold facings
Pencils
Rubber additives
Steel making - carbon raiser additives
Catalysts
Graphite foil, heat sinks, gaskets, seals
Flame retardants additives
Graphene
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GLOBAL RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND FUTURE TRENDS
Current global reserves are estimated at 76Mt of graphite. China holds over
70% followed by India and Mexico at 14% and 4% respectively (Figure 8).
As exploration picks up over the next several years, a significant increase in
world reserves is expected.
Figure 8: Global Reserves - 2011
Source: USGS, IAS
Current production of natural graphite comes predominantly from China
(70%) and India (12%). The remaining production is distributed between
Brazil, North Korea, Canada, Sri Lanka, Mexico and several countries in
Europe and Africa. Similar to many other metals, China has dominated in
graphite production since the late ‘90s when the country flooded the market
with cheap flake and amorphous graphite.
Going forward, China still holds the largest reserves and it should be in
position to scale up their production. With the introduction of a 20% export
duty, a 17% VAT, new regulatory measures and the consolidation of existing
graphite mines, China has clearly indicated that it is trying to preserve their
graphite resources. These measures created supply restrictions at a time when
demand was growing, causing the price increase seen over the last 24-36
months. Besides China, Asia has additional major producers in India, North
Korea and Sri Lanka that can increase production organically.
In North America, Canada has the largest potential in adding supply. It
already has one major producer and several existing deposits close to
infrastructure that could be taken to production in the next 2-3 years. The
United States has not produced graphite in over 20 years but has included
graphite in the critical resources list in 2010. It has one active exploration
project in Alaska. Mexico has large reserves, the technical expertise and the
infrastructure to significantly increase its amorphous graphite production.
In South America, Brazil is the major source of graphite production with
large enough reserves and infrastructure to allow production growth.
72%
14%
4%
1%
1%
8%
China
India
Mexico
Madagascar
Brazil
Other Countries
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Europe has been commercially producing amorphous, flake and vein type
graphite for over 500 years and is in position to increase its production if
graphite prices remain at current levels. There are multiple active or recently
operational mines throughout Europe including Norway, Ukraine, Austria,
Germany, Romania, Czech Republic, Sweden and Turkey. Past producing
mines are already in the process of being reopened and exploration activity
has picked up. We see strong production growth coming from Europe in light
of higher prices and supply risks.
Australia has been a graphite producer in the past but its main large flake
mine was shut down in 1993 due to declining prices. Since then, exploration
for graphite has restarted and the mine is being reactivated. Australia has all
the ingredients to become a large flake producer over the next few years.
Africa is currently a small graphite producer with Madagascar and
Zimbabwe the two main producing countries. Previously a large producer,
many mines also closed due to declining graphite prices. All African graphite
deposits are plagued with poor infrastructure, high energy costs and high-risk
geopolitical jurisdictions. African graphite is world renowned for its large
and high purity flake that command high prices in today’s markets. There are
many deposits identified in African countries such as Mozambique, South
Africa, Uganda, Angola, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Namibia with several
exploration and production companies already busy acquiring the properties.
Africa has the potential to increase its production, however with the high risk
associated with operating on the continent, it would take the right
combination of deposit, location and company to start production of an
industrial metal that is yet to show its true face.
Figure 9: Production of Natural Graphite
Source: USGS, IAS
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
Graphite(Mt)
Total India China
Country Production (t)
Brazil 76,000
Canada 25,000
China 800,000
India 140,000
North Korea 30,000
Madagascar 5,000
Mexico 7,000
Norway 2,000
Romania 20,000
Sri Lanka 8,000
Ukraine 6,000
Other Countries 185,000
Total for 2010 1,125,000
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
16 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Looking at the period starting from 1994 to 2010 (Figure 9), the production
of natural graphite maintained a stable demand all the way until 1999 when
demand started growing at an overall annual rate of 4% to 6%. This growth
is attributed to both traditional uses of graphite coming from the
development of BRIC countries as well as from advances in the high tech
uses of graphite.
Assuming there was no major excess in supply in the mentioned period, we
use linear regression to estimate our base case growth in graphite demand at
approximately 2.5%. We then consider two growth scenarios, one at 4% and
the other at 6% (Figure 10). The 4% case assumes that amorphous and vein
graphite grow at a stable 2.5% annual rate (same as base case) and flake
graphite grows at an increasing annual rate from 4% to 8%. In this case, the
proportion of flake graphite to total demand grows from an initial 34% to
40%. The 6% growth case assumes the demand for all types of graphite
increases equally.
Based on these growth parameters, we estimate the number of additional
mines that will need to go into production to satisfy the global demand from
2012 to 2020. We take into account a conservative estimate for mine
depletion, organic growth and new mines in India and North Korea and
consider two cases for China: one at 1% production growth and the other at
2% growth. We assume that new mines will predominantly open in Canada,
Europe, Brazil, Australia, Africa and Mexico with an annual production
ranging between 15-20Ktpy.
Figure 10: Summary of Supply & Demand Estimates
*23 additional mines are not enough to meet the demand in that specific case
Source: IAS
1% China
Growth
2% China
Growth
2.5% Base Case 7 4
4% Growth Case 12 8
6% Growth Case 23* 23
Annual Demand
Growth
Additional Mines Required
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
17 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Graphite(Mt)
Supply Estimate (23 new mines) Supply Estimate (8 new mines) Supply Estimate (4 new mines)
Demand @ 6% Demand @ 4% Demand Base Case
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Graphite(Mt)
Supply Estimate (23 new mines*) Supply Estimate (12 new mines) Supply Estimate (7 new mines)
Demand @ 6% Demand @ 4% Demand Base Case
Figure 11: Estimated Supply and Demand – 2011 to 2020
*23 additional mines are not enough to meet the demand in that specific case
Source: IAS
GRAPHITE PRICES
The recent increase in graphite prices is undoubtedly the main cause for the
increased interest in this industry today, however ironically it is this metric
that has the least amount of data available. Graphite prices, just like most
industrial metals, are negotiated directly between the buyer and the seller
based on a common posted price. The main data available today is supplied
by Indusrial Minerals Magazine, the source of most graphite specific
research in the industry (Figure 12). The main parameters used in pricing
graphite are flake size and purity along with other factors such as ash content
and composition, humidity and sulfur content determining the final price.
The variation in these parameters creates a price range for a specific flake
size and purity as seen in Figure 12. The benchmark purity in the industry is
94-97% C for natural graphite. Increase in flake size at a constant purity adds
a gradual premium to the product (Figure 13) while a decrease in purity at
the same flake size causes a significant decrease in price (Figure 14). Prices
for upgraded purities or modified products such as spherical or expanded
graphite are not commonly quoted but are known to go as high as $20,000/t.
1% Production Growth in China
2% Production Growth in China
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
18 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 12: Graphite Price 2000-2011: Large Flake +80, 94-97% C
Source: Northern Graphite, Industrial Minerals Magazine
Figure 13: Average Graphite Price 2010-2012: Variation in flake size
Source: Industrial Minerals Magazine, IAS
Figure 14: Average Graphite Price 2010-2012: Variation in purity
Source: Industrial Minerals Magazine, IAS
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Large Flake +80 94-97%C
Medium Flake +100 94-97%C
Amorphous 80-85%C
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Medium Flake +100-80 94-97%C
Medium Flake +100-80 90%C
Medium Flake +100-80 85-87%C
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
19 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GraphitePrice($/t)
Graphite(Mt)
Supply Estimate (4 new mines) Demand Base Case Avg. Large Flake +80, 94-97%C Estimated Price
Looking at the last 20 years, graphite prices sustained a low at below $1000/t
from the early 90’s to 2005 caused by the low cost Chinese graphite
production. Subsequently, new demand from the green tech sector, export
restrictions, stricter environmental regulations, mine depletion and rising
energy and transportation costs have all contributed to a rebound of graphite
prices in the recent years. Looking forward, and not withstanding significant
global events, we estimate future large flake and high purity graphite prices
based on the rebound level seen in the last 2 years together with our demand
growth base case model (Figure 15).
Figure 15: Average Graphite Prices 2010-2012: Variation in purity
Source: IAS
WHY THE RUSH FOR LARGE FLAKE - THE COST FACTOR
It is now fairly clear what potential graphite holds if all these new
technologies are adopted over the next 10 years. The main question
remaining is if the hunt for large flake deposits is justified or not? Do you
really need large flake or can the cheaper fine and amorphous material do the
same job?
Our discussions with manufacturers of graphite end products have
highlighted one common theme – all flakes can be worked with, but the
purification cost does not always allow it. As a rule of thumb, the larger the
flake, the higher the purity of the concentrate and therefore less treatment is
required to bring the graphite to above 97% C. This reduces production costs
for the miner who can then sell it at prices normally achieved through
chemical and thermal upgrading. The Chinese cost structure and lax
environmental regulations have allowed this purification at low cost in the
past, suppressing prices throughout the ‘90s. Recent changes in these
regulations and increases in energy and transportation costs have driven the
prices up to levels where high purity and thus larger flake deposits outside of
China can once more be economical. Prices for the lower quality amorphous
and flake graphite destined to traditional uses that do not require major
chemical and thermal upgrading, are significantly lower; production margins
1% Production Growth in China
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
20 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
are therefore less economical for projects outside of China. In addition to
that, indications are that production of SFG, which commands premium
prices, is more cost efficient when manufactured from larger flake as loss is
minimized.
Overall, there are mixed indications as to how much large and high purity
flake graphite China can produce at low cost going forward. Deposits with
larger flake production are therefore better positioned to weather the storm if
China does increase production significantly forcing prices down again.
GRAPHITE – FROM EXPLORATION TO MINING
Graphite is a common mineral that is found in many geological environments
but is mostly found in trace quantities or as an alteration mineral. Based on
the type of graphite explored, for a deposit to be economical it needs to have
a combination of characteristics. The exploration part is relatively quick and
straight forward. Initial discoveries are done by prospecting for graphite
showings in outcrops. This is then followed up by a geophysical conductivity
survey, also known as electromagnetic survey (EM), which is used to better
delineate the mineralized zones. The EM survey is very efficient due to
graphite’s conductivity. Nonetheless, due to the structural complexity of
many graphite deposits, anomalies may result from interfering conductive
effects and therefore need to be accepted only as an indication of potential
mineralization and not the size of the deposit. Furthermore, the lower grade
disseminated deposits might not respond well to an EM survey and therefore
could be identified primarily by prospecting. These potential targets would
then be followed up by surface mapping and sometimes trenching used to
understand the structural complexity of the ore body and to plan the drilling
exploration program. This concludes the target generation stage.
The next stage is the resource identification and definition portion which
includes drilling and metallurgical studies. Drilling programs are relatively
shallow as most deposits tend to be open pit operations. Some high grade
amorphous and vein graphite mines are underground but still relatively
shallow. Based on these parameters and depending on the structural
complexity of the deposit, around 10,000 to 15,000m of drilling are required
to properly delineate an ore body. Metallurgical sampling should begin
shortly after initial drilling as this will determine the economics of the
project in terms of recovery, separation, purity and flake distribution. Ideally,
a resource estimate should be produced once initial metallurgical data is
available. Without metallurgical data, even a large deposit might prove to be
uneconomical as recoveries, purity and flake distribution might prove to be
non favorable. The cost of these two stages will vary depending on the
existing infrastructure, jurisdiction and the remoteness of the project.
Overall, these costs could range from $2M to $5M and depending on the
pace of exploration, could be completed as quickly as 12-24 months.
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
21 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Not all graphite discoveries follow that order. Some ore bodies are identified
through exploration for massive sulphides, gold and other metals. In that
case, the timeline and the cost structure changes. An example of that is the
Green Giant deposit of Energizer Resources where the company used to
explore for vanadium and the Albany deposit by Zenyatta Ventures that was
first explored for massive sulphides.
Pre-feasibility, feasibility, permitting and development are project specific in
terms of time but as a rough estimate, total cost is expected to be between
$100 and $200M.
KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAPHITE DEPOSITS
For a graphite deposit to be economical, we estimate that the ore body needs
to contain over 500,000 tonnes of in situ graphite to support over 20 years of
mine life at a production rate around 15 to 20Ktpy. Most flake deposits are
relatively low grade and primarily open pittable operations. Hydrothermal,
magmatic, vein and amorphous deposits can be both open pittable and
underground. The economics of every deposit depend on five key
parameters:
Ore body geometry (shallow, flat dipping, etc.)
Recoveries (flake liberation from simple crushing and grinding)
Grade & Size
Purity of graphite (without chemical or thermal upgrade)
Flake size distribution
Out of these 5 parameters, grade & size act as a buffer between purity and
flake distribution and ore body geometry and recoveries (Figure 16). The two
main factors controlling the price of graphite are purity and flake size
distribution which are related. As mentioned earlier, without using any
thermal or acid beneficiation, as flake size increases so does the purity and
therefore the price of graphite. On the other hand, main operating costs of the
deposit will depend on the geometry of the deposit and recoveries.
Considering that most graphite deposits will be structurally complex, the
geometry of the ore body will determine the amount of waste rock processed
while mining. To summarize, the steeper the deposit or the lower the
recoveries, the higher the purity and larger flake size are required to make a
project economical.
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
22 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 16: Key parameters for a graphite deposit
Source: IAS
GRAPHITE EXPLORATION - CLASS OF 2012
The last time a large number of graphite projects were being explored or
developed was during the ‘90s. Since then, the best deposits were either
acquired by large graphite producers (e.g. IMERYS, GK Graphite) or by
state owned companies, the smaller deposits abandoned and several mines
mothballed. The class of 2012 will face a similar destiny as we do not expect
the majority of the junior exploration companies to take their deposits into
production. Only the best deposits, if discovered in the beginning of the
demand growth cycle, have the potential to get developed by the actual
exploration company. The key to development will be vertical integration
through graphite upgrading although it will require a competent management
team with the industry knowledge and experience. Other projects will get
acquired by the likes of IMERYS and GK Graphite with the potential of
more major producers such as Superior Graphite and Asbury Carbons
returning to mining and exploration. Finally, a push by companies from
China and India is expected to take place as both nations look to secure
supply outside of their own borders.
As of end of April 2012, we identify 36 public exploration companies that
are targeting graphite. The number of projects exploded as of November
2011 when project acquisitions from private owners grew to over 12 projects
per month (Figure 17). Now, this amounts for a total of 98 projects
distributed across North and South America, Africa, Europe and Australia
(Figure 18).
Grade & Size
Purity &
Flake Distribution
Recoveries &
Ore Body Geometry
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
23 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 17: Global growth in number of graphite projects
Source: Graphite focused exploration companies public filings and IAS
With such a large number of projects being added, it is inevitable that a large
portion of them will end up as low quality targets, never reaching
development or even resource definition drilling. We therefore use all the
key characteristics presented in this report to create categories into which we
classify all the 98 projects (Figure 19). Based on this division, we isolate 6
companies with 7 projects that we focus on as our Top Tier. This is followed
by 12 companies in the Mid Tier and 18 companies in the Lower Tier.
Companies with projects across several categories are ranked based on their
most advanced project. The 6 categories are defined as:
1. Target generation – Projects that are undergoing historic data
compilation with ongoing or historical geophysical work. Some of
these projects have been staked strategically close to existing or past
producing mines and require reconnaissance field work. Other
projects have been staked based on showings of graphite during
exploration for other metals.
2. Early stage exploration – Projects with active field work (trenching
or drilling), with historical drilling targeting graphite or with past
producing assets from 20 to 60 years ago. Assay results and early
metallurgical data is sometimes available.
3. Resource definition & historical resources – Active drilling
delineating a resource or projects with historical resources that
require confirmation drilling.
4. Advanced exploration – Active drilling to increase and / or upgrade
the resource with ongoing metallurgical test work. Projects with
recent history of commercial production including historical
resources, metallurgical work and historical infrastructure.
5. PFS & BFS – Projects with ongoing pre-feasibility or bankable
feasibility studies.
6. Development – Development of the mine and the processing
facilities.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pre Nov
2011
Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Numberof Projects
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
24 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 18: Geographic distribution of graphite exploration projects
Source: Company Filings
Figure 19: Stages of exploration by company – as of May 1st
, 2012
Note: Several companies appear in multiple categories as they have several projects in different stages.
Source: IAS
In addition to these companies, we are tracking several private companies
that are intending to go public in the upcoming months with projects that
would fit the top and mid tier categories. For the projects in the lower tier,
we expect some to reach the mid tier status by the end of the year.
A performance analysis of the three individual groups (Figure 20-22)
highlights that investor interest in early stage graphite projects reached a
saturation point in April. The Mid Tier companies representing the fastest
growth potential with their drill ready projects grew steadily in the last 6
months while the Top Tier companies peaked in early April.
The Top Tier companies have the highest expectations as they need to
produce quality results and make the right moves to bring their projects
closer to production in order to benefit from the first mover advantage and
the high graphite prices. The Mid Tier group will supply the next crop of
high quality projects offering the largest growth potential in the short term.
Top Tier
6 companies
Mid Tier
12 companies
Lower Tier
18 companies
Stage Companies
Total
Projects
North
America
South
America
Africa Europe Australia
1 27 69 50 0 1 0 19
2 14 22 12 1 2 5 2
3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0
4 3 4 1 0 0 3 0
5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Companies Tracked: 36 Projects Tracked: 98
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
25 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
The Lower Tier has the growth potential investors are looking for but due to
financing risks and lower project quality will see a large amount of projects
abandoned over the next 12-24 months.
Figure 20: 6 Month performance of Top Tier companies
Source: Goolge Finance
Figure 21: 6 Month performance of Mid Tier companies
Source: Goolge Finance
Figure 22: 6 Month performance of Lower Tier companies
Source: Goolge Finance
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
26 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 23: Comparison of Graphite Invested Exploration Companies
Source: Bloomberg, IAS
Figure 24: Comparison of Top Tier Graphite Exploration Companies
*Historical data. Non 43-101 compliant.
Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, IAS,
Company Ticker
Mkt Cap
(M$)
Projects
Flagship
Project
Jurisdiction
M&I
(Mt)
M&I
Grade
(%Cg)
Inferred
(Mt)
Inferred
Grade
(%Cg)
Recovery
(%)
Purity
(%C)
Flake Distribution
Northern Graphite Corp. NGC 100 1 Bissett Creek Ontario, Canada 25.98 1.81 55.04 1.57 97.1 96.7 80% @ +32/+50/+80
Focus Metals Inc. FMS 84 1 Lac Knife Quebec, Canada 4.94 15.76 3.00 15.58 85.9 N/A 85% @ +48/+65/+150/+200
Talga Gold Ltd. TLG.AX 19 7 Nunasvaara Sweden 3.6 23 N/A N/A 87% @ +80/+140
Flinders Resrouces Ltd. FDR 95 1 Woxna Sweden 6.93* 8.82* N/A 94* 68% @ +80/+200*
Uragold Bay Resources Inc. UBR 5 2 Asbury Mine Quebec, Canada 0.58* 10* 85* 90* 75% @ +80/+200*
Standard Graphite Corp. SGH 11 13 Mousseau East QC & ON, Canada 1.11* 8.28* N/A N/A 60% @ +100*
NGC
FMS
TLG.AX
FDR
UBR
SGH
AXE.AX
EGZ
GPH
LRA
LMR
SRK
SYR.AX
ZEN
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
MarketCap($M)
Top Tier
Mid Tier
Lower Tier
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
27 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
Figure 25: Mid and Lower Tier Graphite Exploration Companies
Source: Bloomberg, IAS
Company Ticker Tier
Mkt Cap
(M$)
Projects Jurisdiction
Archer Exploration Ltd. AXE.AX Mid 31 9 Australia
Canada Rare Earths Inc. CJC Mid 3 5 Quebec, Canada
Energizer Resources Inc. EGZ Mid 45 1 Madagascar
Graphite One Resources Inc. GPH Mid 21 1 Alaska, USA
Greenlight Resources Inc. GR Mid 2 2 NS & NB, Canada
Lara Exploration Ltd. LRA Mid 29 1 Brazil
Lomiko Metals Inc. LMR Mid 7 1 Quebec, Canada
Soldi Ventures Inc. SOV Mid 3 2 Quebec, Canada
Strike Graphite Corp. SRK Mid 14 3 Sask. & QC, Canada
Syrah Resources Limited SYR.AX Mid 162 2 Mozambique, Tanzania
Velocity Minerals Ltd. VLC Mid 6 3 Quebec, Canada
Zenyatta Ventures Ltd. ZEN Mid 22 1 Ontario, Canada
Amseco Exploration Ltd. AEL Lower 3 7 Quebec, Canada
Anglo Swiss Resources Inc. ASW Lower 9 1 BC, Canada
Atocha Resources Inc. ATT Lower 2 2 Quebec, Canada
Big North Graphite Corp. NRT Lower 2 2 QC & ON, Canada
Bravura Ventures Corp. BVQ Lower 1 3 Quebec, Canada
Canadian Mining Company Inc. CNG Lower 2 1 Mexico
Caribou King Resources Ltd. CKR Lower 2 3 Ontario, Canada
Cavan Ventures Inc. CVN Lower 2 2 QC & Sask, Canada
First Graphite Corp. FGR Lower 5 3 QC, BC & Sask, Canada
Galaxy Capital Corp. GXY Lower 2 2 Quebec, Canada
Geomega Resources Inc. GMA Lower 12 1 Quebec, Canada
Kent Exploration Inc. KEX Lower 3 1 New Zealand
Lincoln Minerals Ltd. LML.AX Lower 25 1 South Australia
Logan Copper Inc. LC Lower 1 1 Quebec, Canada
Monax Mining Limited MOX.AX Lower 10 1 South Australia
Pinestar Gold Inc. PNS Lower 3 9 NSW, SA & W. Australia
Rare Earth Metals Inc. RA Lower 6 1 Ontario, Canada
Terra Firma Resources Inc. TFR Lower 2 1 Ontario, Canada
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
28 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
CONCLUSION
Growth in demand has triggered Chinese export regulations which in
turn have resulted in a price increase, forming ideal conditions for the
graphite sector and attracting many exploration companies across the globe
in a short period of time. Our analysis of the entire sector confirms the
supply shortage scenario highly speculated by the industry and suggests that
a minimum of 4 new mines and as many as 23 will be needed to go into
production outside of India and China between now and 2020 to cope with
the growth in demand.
We identify 36 companies, out of which 6 qualify for our Top Tier category.
These companies operate the most advanced projects that could be taken into
production in a short time frame. Companies in this group are likely to enjoy
the first-mover advantage and produce returns for investors in both the short
and the long term. In our Mid Tier, we identify 22 projects operated by 12
Companies that have legitimate targets still requiring several exploration
campaigns to delineate the deposit. We expect several large discoveries to
come from this group that could ultimately provide the largest return for
investors in this sector. Our final group, the Lower Tier, represents the
highest risk category with many projects expected not to be taken even to the
initial drilling stages.
As the exploration season heats up, investors will need to look for the first
indications of which companies are wasting time and which are advancing
step by step in establishing the right deposit, the right management and most
importantly the right graphite to start production in the next 3 to 5 years.
Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
29 of 31 Kiril Mugerman
LEGAL DISCLOSURE
Investment Recommendation Rating System
Top Pick: The stock represents our best investment ideas, the greatest potential value appreciation.
Strong Buy: The stock is expected to deliver a return exceeding 13% over the next 12 months.
Buy: The stock is expected to deliver a return between 9% and 13% over the next 12 months.
Hold: The stock is expected to deliver a return between 5% and 9% over the next 12 months.
Sell: The stock is expected to deliver a return lower than 5% over the next 12 months.
Speculative Buy: Stock bears significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria.
Investment in the stock may result in material loss.
Distribution of Ratings, as of April 30, 2012
Rating
Coverage
Universe
Top Pick 2%
Strong Buy 21%
Buy 14%
Speculative Buy 21%
Hold 7%
Tender 5%
Not Rated 30%
Sell 0%
100%
General: The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be
reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and
interpretation of this information and are not to be constructed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities
mentioned herein. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.
Research analyst certification: The authoring research analyst(s) certify that the publication accurately reflects his/her
personal opinions and recommendations about the issuer company and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or the company.
Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in
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case the prior express written consent the institutional department of Industrial Alliance Securities.
Company related disclosures:
Issuer Company Ticker Applicable Disclosures
Northern Graphite Corp. TSX.V: NGC 7a, 8b
Disclosure Legend
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Graphite Sector Overview May 1st
, 2012
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Graphite

  • 1. ANALYST: Kiril Mugerman SECTOR: Mining kmugerman@iagto.ca (514) 284 4175 What is graphite? Why are companies suddenly exploring for it? Why the rush? These are some of the questions that investors have already found answers to through the multitude of companies presently active in the sector. However, this is not all what investors want to know. What has not been properly addressed is what makes one deposit stand out above others, how to recognize a company with the right assets and what to expect from exploration companies in the next 12 to 24 months. In this report we review the fundamentals behind graphite supply and demand which are ultimately pointing towards supply shortage in the upcoming years. Our model for future graphite supply and demand suggests that a minimum of 4 new mines and as many as 23 will be needed to go into production outside of India and China between now and 2020 to satisfy the growth in demand. CONCLUSION This report reviews 36 companies and 98 properties which are presently being explored for graphite across the globe. We separate these companies based on the stage of their project into three risk groups. The Top Tier is made up of 3 companies with advanced projects and 3 with historical resources that could be quickly upgraded to 43-101 status. This group offers investors both short and long term growth. The Mid Tier includes 12 companies with established targets, most of them drill ready. We expect several large discoveries to come from this group that could offer the largest return for investors in the graphite sector. The Lower Tier comprises the remaining 18 companies forming the highest risk investment at the moment in the sector. Disclaimer: The opinions put forth in this report are those of the mining analyst. Great care should be taken when making judgments based on this report. Please see the legal disclosures at the end of the report for more information. May 1st , 2012 GRAPHITE GRAPHITE –Black Gold of the 21st Century SECTOR OVERVIEW Company Flagship Project Location M&I (Mt) M&I Grade (%Cg) Inferred (Mt) Inferred Grade (%Cg) Recovery (%) Purity (%C) Flake Distribution Northern Graphite Corp. Bissett Creek ON, Canada 25.98 1.81 55.04 1.57 97.1 96.7 80% @ +32/+50/+80 Focus Metals Inc. Lac Knife QC, Canada 4.94 15.76 3.00 15.58 85.9 N/A 85% @ +48/+65/+150/+200 Talga Gold Ltd. Nunasvaara Sweden 3.6 23 N/A N/A 87% @ +80/+140 Flinders Resrouces Ltd. Woxna Sweden 6.93* 8.82* N/A 94* 68% @ +80/+200* Uragold Bay Resources Inc. Asbury Mine QC, Canada 0.58* 10* 85* 90* 75% @ +80/+200* Standard Graphite Corp. Mousseau East QC, Canada 1.11* 8.28* N/A N/A 60% @ +100* Northern Graphite Corp. (TSX.V: NGC) Price (04/30/2012) $2.22 Avg. Volume 90 Days 802,600 52 week High/Low $3.42 - $0.71 Shares Outstanding (M) 45.6 Market Cap ($M) 100.3 Focus Metals Inc. (TSX.V: FMS) Price (04/30/2012) $0.98 Avg. Volume 90 Days 619,802 52 week High/Low $1.33 - $0.52 Shares Outstanding (M) 90.4 Market Cap ($M) 92.2 Talga Gold Ltd. (ASX: TLG) Price (04/30/2012) $0.51 Avg. Volume 90 Days 261,032 52 week High/Low $0.52 - $0.12 Shares Outstanding (M) 46.4 Market Cap ($M) 21.8 Flinders Resources Ltd. (TSX.V: FDR) Price (04/30/2012) $2.16 Avg. Volume 90 Days 213,802 52 week High/Low $3.02 - $1.60 Shares Outstanding (M) 44.5 Market Cap ($M) 96.2 Uragold Bay Resources (TSX.V: UBR) Price (04/30/2012) $0.035 Avg. Volume 90 Days 682,611 52 week High/Low $0.07 - $0.02 Shares Outstanding (M) 156.1 Market Cap ($M) 5.5 Standard Graphite Corp. (TSX.V: SGH) Price (04/30/2012) $0.465 Avg. Volume 90 Days 298,554 52 week High/Low $1.08 - $0.12 Shares Outstanding (M) 22.4 Market Cap ($M) 10.4
  • 2. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 2 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Table of Contents CARBON –OIL, DIAMONDS, GRAPHITE AND MORE.......................................................... 3 PROPERTIES OF GRAPHITE...................................................................................................... 4 TYPES OF GRAPHITE AND GRAPHITE DEPOSITS.............................................................. 4 GROUP I (FLAKE) – METAMORPHOSED SILICA & CARBONATE RICH SEDIMENTARY ROCKS ........................5 GROUP II (AMORPHOUS) – METAMORPHOSED COAL / CARBON RICH SEDIMENTS........................................6 GROUP III (VEIN / FLAKE / AMORPHOUS) – HYDROTHERMAL / SKARN / MAGMATIC....................................6 LAB WORK – GRADE, SIZE AND METALLURGY................................................................. 6 GRADE DETERMINATION .............................................................................................................................. 6 FLAKE SIZE DETERMINATION .......................................................................................................................7 PROCESSING AND BENEFICIATION.................................................................................................................8 USES OF GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 9 SYNTHETIC / NATURAL .................................................................................................................................9 SPHERICAL FLAKE GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 10 EXPANDED FLAKE GRAPHITE ..................................................................................................................... 10 GRAPHITE IN BATTERIES & ENERGY STORAGE APPLICATIONS................................................................... 11 GRAPHITE IN NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS....................................................................................................... 11 GRAPHENE – THE MIRACLE MATERIAL ...................................................................................................... 12 GLOBAL RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND FUTURE TRENDS.......................................... 14 GRAPHITE PRICES ..................................................................................................................... 17 WHY THE RUSH FOR LARGE FLAKE - THE COST FACTOR.......................................... 19 GRAPHITE – FROM EXPLORATION TO MINING............................................................... 20 KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAPHITE DEPOSITS ........................................................................................ 21 GRAPHITE EXPLORATION - CLASS OF 2012 ................................................................................................. 22 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................................... 28 LEGAL DISCLOSURE ................................................................................................................. 29
  • 3. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 3 of 31 Kiril Mugerman CARBON –OIL, DIAMONDS, GRAPHITE AND MORE Carbon forms a multitude of compounds both organic (e.g. oil, gas) and inorganic (e.g. calcite, carbon dioxide) but additionally, takes on crystalline forms composed purely of carbon (diamond, graphite and coal). These minerals are among several carbon allotropes, or structural variations of the element carbon. Other allotropes include graphene, fullerenes and other structures which are part of a large area of research in the fields of nanomaterials and high-technology. All allotropes form distinct shapes and exhibit different physical properties (Figure 1). Figure 1: Carbon allotropes Some allotrope structures of carbon: a) diamond; b) individual layers are graphene / combined layers form graphite; c) lonsdaleite; d-f) fullerenes; g) amorphous carbon / coal; h) carbon nanotube Source: Wikipedia: Carbon Graphite was already known to the prehistoric man, later used by the Egyptians and it became well known in the 16th century after the discovery of the Borrowdale mine in England. Uses of graphite since then evolved from the early refractory uses to pencils, applications in the steel manufacturing, the electric industry and today in the energy storage applications.
  • 4. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 4 of 31 Kiril Mugerman PROPERTIES OF GRAPHITE Graphite is a non-metallic, opaque mineral of grey to black color with metallic luster. It possesses properties of both metals and non-metals, which make it ideal for many industrial applications. The mineral is flexible, soft (1-2 on the Mohs scale), compressible and malleable. It has low frictional resistance which gives it a greasy texture making it an efficient lubricant. It is thermally and electrically conductive. Its melting point is above 3,550°C in a non-oxidizing environment and the vaporization temperature is around 4500°C and mostly infusible. It is nontoxic, chemically inert and has high resistance to corrosion. Graphite has low thermal expansion and shrinkage with high thermal shock resistance. Graphite has low density (1.1-1.7 g/cm3 ) relative to conductive metals such as aluminum and copper. Ultimately, all its properties vary depending on the purity and size of the graphite crystal. 1 TYPES OF GRAPHITE AND GRAPHITE DEPOSITS Overall, natural graphite takes on three distinct types (flake, vein and amorphous) that differ in purity, crystal size and shape and deposit style. All three kinds form platy hexagonal crystals giving them their flaky appearance. Amorphous graphite does not exhibit this texture due to the small size of the crystals and instead, appears as massive graphite. In addition, there is engineered synthetic graphite manufactured by calcination and subsequent graphitization of petroleum coke with purity reaching up to 99.99% carbon. The general requirements for the majority of graphite deposits are simple – high grade metamorphism (prolonged heat exposure under high pressure conditions) of carbonaceous or graphitic country rocks. These metamorphic conditions are typically found where large mountain building events took place in Earth’s history (e.g. the metasedimentary unit of the Grenville Orogeny), high grade metamorphic basement rocks (e.g. the Precambrian shield) or at the contacts of the two. Figure 2 shows some of the major graphite provinces in relation to these geological occurrences. A variation of factors such as the composition of the country rock, tectonic setting, temperature, pressure, oxygen and other conditions will determine the deposit style and the type of graphite present. A minority of graphite deposits will form under different conditions such as contact metamorphism (skarn style), hydrothermal, magmatic or residual styles of mineralization. The main styles of deposit and the types of graphite associated with them are described below2 . 1 Merchant Research & Consulting Ltd. Graphite market review 2011 and various graphite producers filings 2 Industrial Minerals & Rocks: commodities, markets and uses. 7th Edition, 2006
  • 5. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 5 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 2: Global potential for graphite deposits Arrows are pointing to major graphite occurrences around the world Source: USGS, IAS GROUP I (FLAKE) – METAMORPHOSED SILICA & CARBONATE RICH SEDIMENTARY ROCKS This group of deposits constitutes a large part of global graphite production. In the case of the silica metamorphosed rocks, the deposits are typically associated with quartz-mica schist, quartzite and gneiss. These types of deposits show average grades of around 10%-12% Cg (Graphitic carbon), but can go as low as 2% and as high as 60% Cg. The mineralized zones are in the form of lenses or layers depending on the degree of structural deformation and range from flat lying to sub vertical. Even though these deposits are known for their large flakes, crystal size actually varies a lot, reflecting the grain size of the parent sedimentary rock. Graphite is relatively well disseminated in, less deformed, lower grade layers with widths over 50m in thickness while lenses tend to be smaller and higher grade. In length, individual deposits can extend over several thousands of meters. The purity of the graphite in these deposits tends to be between 85% and 98% carbon. Examples of such deposits in Canada are Bissett Creek and Lac Knife. In the case of the carbonate rich metamorphosed rocks, the deposits are hosted within marbles often intertwined with quartzite and gneiss. The average grade in marble hosted deposits ranges from 1% to 10% Cg. These deposits tend to be structurally complex with large variations in grade over short distances. These deposits can produce the entire range of flake sizes with purities between 85% and 98% carbon. The best example of such deposits is the Lac-des-Iles mine in Quebec, Canada.
  • 6. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 6 of 31 Kiril Mugerman GROUP II (AMORPHOUS) – METAMORPHOSED COAL / CARBON RICH SEDIMENTS The amorphous graphite deposits are formed by metamorphism of coal or carbon-rich sediments and constitute a large part of the global graphite production. The product is microcrystalline graphite less than 70 microns (200 Mesh) in size. Graphite is found in seams similar to coal deposits and is often folded and faulted. The deposits typically range from 30% to over 90% Cg with content of non-graphitic content varying significantly from one deposit to another. Graphite from these deposits tends to be of lower purity ranging from 60% to 90% carbon. Some of the best examples of such deposits are found in China and Mexico. GROUP III (VEIN / FLAKE / AMORPHOUS) – HYDROTHERMAL / SKARN / MAGMATIC These deposits can be associated both with metamorphosed calcareous sedimentary and with non-calcareous host rocks. The styles of mineralization are uncommon, poorly understood and additionally, highly localized. The best example is the high purity Sri Lanka deposits that run at over 90% Cg with a purity of over 98% carbon. Depending on the host rock and the heat source, these deposits can produce both amorphous graphite and flake graphite (Woxna deposit, Sweden) with variable grades and purities. Overall, these types of deposits have high variability in flake size, purity and resource size. LAB WORK – GRADE, SIZE AND METALLURGY Graphite exploration companies often quote historical graphite grades, visual grades and flake size. Unfortunately, this only works as a very rough indication at best for both grade and flake size. We discuss below various analytical methods presently accepted, what they are used for, what results to expect and how to interpret them. GRADE DETERMINATION To determine the grade in either a surface or drilling sample, the most accurate method used today is the LECO test which uses nitric acid digestion versus in contrast to older methods like the LOI, Double-LOI and Thermogravimetry which use heating and burning of the sample at different temperatures under various atmospheric conditions. To illustrate, the Bissett Creek deposit shows a 30% to 40% reduction in graphitic carbon content when analyzed by LECO versus Double-LOI test. As for visual estimations of grade and flake size, these can be highly subjective estimates. In core, graphite tends to smear easily making it look more graphitic than it actually is.
  • 7. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 7 of 31 Kiril Mugerman FLAKE SIZE DETERMINATION The next step in identifying the economics of the deposit is to determine the flake size distribution. This is done in several steps starting with a petrographic thin-section study and a microprobe analysis. This gives an accurate indication of flake sizes in the sample, but in no way does this indicate whether these flakes would be easily liberated, concentrated and whether their size would be conserved. In many cases, the processing and beneficiation procedure will break down some of the larger flakes and create finer graphite particles. This study does provide an initial indication to the initial grinding needed to liberate the flakes using floatation. The flake sizes to be used in determining the economics of the deposit should come from analyzing fully processed samples by either wet or dry screening, with the final measurements done under a microscope. Figure 3: (A) Thin section microprobe analysis (~ 150 Mesh) (B) Processed dry (+12 Mesh) flake graphite Source: (A) Zenyatta Ventures and (B) Northern Graphite fillings The actual flake sizes are reported in either microns or mesh sizes and are usually distributed between several sizes indicating what percentage of the recovered graphite flakes fall into large, medium and fine categories. Several versions of the categories exist with one of the more common ones presented in Figure 4. The “+” and the “–” before the mesh size are used to describe a range, with “+” indicating that particles larger than that specific size are retained in a sieve while the “–” indicates that particles finer than that specific size pass through the sieve. For example, “–48 +80” means that the majority of the flakes are retained by the 80 mesh sieve but pass through the 48 mesh sieve. A B
  • 8. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 8 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 4: Mesh Sizes & Graphite Classifications Source: AGM Container Controls Inc. PROCESSING AND BENEFICIATION The recovery of flake graphite is generally achieved through flotation and screening after primary crushing and grinding. Grinding size is project specific and requires multiple optimization test runs to achieve the ideal recovery and flake sizes. The main additive used in froth flotation to assist graphite separation from gangue minerals is pine oil. The flotation process is repeated several times in order to clean the graphite concentrate. Additional upgrading of the carbon grade can be achieved through thermal treatment or acid leaching. The concentrate is analyzed for any undesirable oxides or trace metals, for flake size distribution, humidity level and for final carbon grade – key parameters that determine the selling price. That concentrate can then be submitted to end-users for product evaluation. The main problem expected at the beneficiation stage is complications with overall recovery and of the larger graphite flakes. Recovery of the larger graphite flakes might require significant finer grinding that will eventually destroy the larger flakes and reduce the graphite selling price. Recoveries are expected to exceed 90% in most cases but ore bodies flooded with silica or which are significantly oxidized might show much lower recoveries. A potential solution could be acid upgrading or acid liberation, but this is cost intensive and will likely make a project uneconomical. Graphite Classification US Sieve # Mesh Size Microns (µm) Millimeters (mm) Common Material 4 4 4760 4.760 8 8 2380 2.380 16 14 1190 1.190 Typical ground coffee 25 24 707 0.707 Beach Sand 30 28 595 0.595 Table salt 50 48 297 0.297 Sugar 60 60 250 0.250 Fine Sand / Human hair 70 65 210 0.210 80 80 177 0.177 100 100 149 0.149 120 115 125 0.125 140 150 105 0.105 170 170 88 0.088 200 200 74 0.074 Portland Cement 230 250 63 0.063 325 325 44 0.044 Silt 400 400 37 0.037 Plant Pollen 1200 1200 12 0.012 Red Blood Cell 4800 4800 2 0.002 Cigarette Smoke -100 TO +200 MESH FINE FLAKE -200 MESH AMORPHOUS -48 TO +80 MESH LARGE FLAKE -80 TO +100 MESH MEDIUM FLAKE +48 MESH EXTRA LARGE FLAKE LARGERFLAKES FINERFLAKES
  • 9. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 9 of 31 Kiril Mugerman USES OF GRAPHITE The uses of graphite, both existing and up and coming, have been extensively presented by the exploration companies and analysts, discussed by newsletter writers and graphite related websites. Graphite has been referred to as the material used in every industry yet in small enough quantities that no one talks about it. The major consumers of graphite are the steel and refractory industries at over 40% of global production followed by lubricants and expanded graphite applications and carbon products. The biggest growth is currently in the energy applications. Graphite substitution is not considered a major issue especially in the traditional refractory, lubricant and steel industries. In the more emerging uses, graphite could eventually be engineered out later in the future either due to high costs or due to the emergence of a superior composite material. Below is a short summary of some of these uses divided by synthetic, natural or processed graphite together with a quick review of graphene and its potential uses. SYNTHETIC / NATURAL There is a certain overlap in uses between natural and synthetic graphite that is controlled by price and purity. Synthetic graphite, less conductive than the natural counterpart, is significantly more expensive. It can be engineered to the exact required specifications through one of its various forms, the main kinds being: Primary – 99.9% purity synthetic graphite is made in electric furnaces from calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch. Main usage is in electrodes and carbon brushes. Secondary – powder or scrap synthetic graphite is produced from heating calcined petroleum pitch. Main usage is in refractories. Fibrous – produced from organic materials such as rayon, tar pitch and other synthetic organic polymer resins. Main usage is in insulation and as a reinforcement agent in polymer composites. Alternatively, natural graphite can be upgraded to the same specification through intensive thermal and chemical upgrading. China introduced low cost chemical purification methods for fine graphite in the ‘90s but these methods are not economical in Western countries. Since then, processing and purification has been improved and projects with high purity large flake graphite that require less purification have emerged. Natural graphite has another advantage in that it can be processed into other forms such as spherical and expanded graphite. Each of these forms changes graphite properties and makes it more adaptable to specific industry requirements. With these advancements, the overlap between synthetic and natural graphite applications is expected to grow.
  • 10. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 10 of 31 Kiril Mugerman SPHERICAL FLAKE GRAPHITE Spherical flake graphite (SFG) is produced from milling flake graphite into spherical shapes. Due to the strong anisotropic nature of graphite crystal, i.e. its properties change from one plane to another, the process is needed for applications where properties of the crystal flat plane (basal) are favored over those of the crystal edges or vice versa (Figure 5). This is particularly important for energy storage applications like Li-Ion batteries where graphite is used as the anode material. The SFG can undergo additional surface coating which stabilizes the material and enhances its performance. SFG sells at a premium when compared to natural flakes with prices starting at $5000/t for non-coated and increasing significantly for coated spherical graphite. Production methods of SFG are well established and can be adopted by mining operations to increase product value. The process is destructive in terms of flake size as 30% to 70% can be lost to low value small size fragments. Loss ratio is project specific. Figure 5: Spherical flake graphite Source: Angew. Chem. Int. Ed. 2003, 42, 4203-4206 EXPANDED FLAKE GRAPHITE Expanded graphite or exfoliated graphite is produced by a chemical treatment that forces the graphene layers in graphite to separate and therefore expand in volume in an accordion-like fashion. Similarly to spherical graphite, this is done to take advantage of one graphite crystal plane over the other. In the case of expanded graphite, it often undergoes rolling to form sheets or other mechanical processes to prepare the graphite for specific applications.
  • 11. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 11 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 6: Expanded flake graphite – theory and microscope view Source: Asbury Carbons filings GRAPHITE IN BATTERIES & ENERGY STORAGE APPLICATIONS Fuel cells, Li-Ion and other kinds of batteries and photovoltaic solar cells represent some of the largest growth areas for graphite. Presently, the industry is still evolving in terms of materials and compositions being highly variable. Therefore flake, synthetic and polymers of graphite and other materials have been used to date. For example, our research indicates that the amount of graphite used in the anode of Li-Ion batteries varies based on cathode and anode chemical composition, energy and size requirements and other factors. Based on that, a light vehicle battery could consume as much as 20x more graphite as it does lithium metal or it could be as little as 5-10x. R&D work is presently underway by many manufacturers experimenting with graphite-silicate polymers, various spherical graphite blends, purities and other materials. We expect graphite parameters in the batteries and energy storage industries to fluctuate significantly over the next 2-5 years as standards are adopted, fuel cells developed and electric, hybrid and plug-in vehicles grow in demand. GRAPHITE IN NUCLEAR APPLICATIONS From the earliest days of the nuclear power industry, graphite was one of the main components in the traditional reactor where it was used as the moderator in nuclear control rods. For this particular application, high purity graphite is required and therefore the material of choice is predominantly synthetic. On the other hand, generation IV nuclear reactors (e.g. pebble bed
  • 12. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 12 of 31 Kiril Mugerman reactor) are expected to be able to use both synthetic and natural graphite. The fuel in the reactor is uranium dioxide particles coated by synthetic graphite embedded in machined graphite spheres made of natural and synthetic graphite. Exact ratios are hard to estimate as the only prototype is still being developed in China. Industry estimates are that anywhere between 25% to 75% graphite is expected to be natural with the rest synthetic. This can amount for as much as 200 tonnes of natural graphite for the commissioning of the HTR-PM prototype in China and then an additional 40 to 70 tonnes to renew the fuel spheres. We believe it could become a high volume application for natural graphite. GRAPHENE – THE MIRACLE MATERIAL An additional source of growth for graphite demand is the applications of graphene, a one atom thick layer of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycomb lattice that ultimately forms flakes of graphite when stacked together. Produced in laboratories for the first time less than 10 years ago, the material is a hot topic of research in the scientific community and in the R&D labs of high tech companies. Graphene has a unique set of properties that show potential to be used in a wide range of applications such as transistors, high sensitivity sensors, transparent conductive films for touch screen displays, more efficient solar cells and electrodes in energy storage devices. IBM has already fabricated a simple graphene based integrated circuit and Samsung has demonstrated a prototype flexible display, supposedly graphene based. One of the main obstacles to all these applications becoming a reality is the lack of economically viable large scale graphene production. Several methods exist to produce both natural graphene (from flake graphite) and synthetic graphene, but all have certain limitations. Graphene production is still in its infancy and therefore it is hard to speculate which manufacturing method, whether natural or synthetic, will become the method of choice.
  • 13. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 13 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 7: Graphite uses – Major source; – minor source of graphite for that particular use Source: SGL Group, Superior Graphite, Asbury carbons, Industrial Minerals and other graphite producers public filings, IAS Usage Synthetic Amorphous Flake Vein Expanded Graphite Spherical Graphite Graphite fibers, nanotubes & nanoparticles - Insulation, reinforcing agent in polymers for solar cells, electrical circuits, military, wind energy, aerospace and automotive applications Refractories - crucibles, carbon-magnesite bricks (liners in electric arc furnaces and steel ladles), alumina-graphite casting ware, gunning and ramming mixes for monolithic refractories, stopper heads for steel ladles Batteries & energy storage - batteries, fuel cells, photovoltaic solar cells Construction materials - fillers, infrared shielding, heat conductivity, heating systems, etc… Industrial paint pigment and coatings - high resistance to weathering and inertness Lubricants - used in forging, thread anti-seize agent, gear lubricant in mining equipment, drilling mud additives Electrical components, powder metallurgy, plastic and resin additives Carbon brushes and bearings in motors & generators Electrodes for electric arc furnaces Graphite grinding wheels - mirror grinding and polishing Friction materials - brake linings, pads Nuclear reactors Foundry mold facings Pencils Rubber additives Steel making - carbon raiser additives Catalysts Graphite foil, heat sinks, gaskets, seals Flame retardants additives Graphene
  • 14. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 14 of 31 Kiril Mugerman GLOBAL RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND FUTURE TRENDS Current global reserves are estimated at 76Mt of graphite. China holds over 70% followed by India and Mexico at 14% and 4% respectively (Figure 8). As exploration picks up over the next several years, a significant increase in world reserves is expected. Figure 8: Global Reserves - 2011 Source: USGS, IAS Current production of natural graphite comes predominantly from China (70%) and India (12%). The remaining production is distributed between Brazil, North Korea, Canada, Sri Lanka, Mexico and several countries in Europe and Africa. Similar to many other metals, China has dominated in graphite production since the late ‘90s when the country flooded the market with cheap flake and amorphous graphite. Going forward, China still holds the largest reserves and it should be in position to scale up their production. With the introduction of a 20% export duty, a 17% VAT, new regulatory measures and the consolidation of existing graphite mines, China has clearly indicated that it is trying to preserve their graphite resources. These measures created supply restrictions at a time when demand was growing, causing the price increase seen over the last 24-36 months. Besides China, Asia has additional major producers in India, North Korea and Sri Lanka that can increase production organically. In North America, Canada has the largest potential in adding supply. It already has one major producer and several existing deposits close to infrastructure that could be taken to production in the next 2-3 years. The United States has not produced graphite in over 20 years but has included graphite in the critical resources list in 2010. It has one active exploration project in Alaska. Mexico has large reserves, the technical expertise and the infrastructure to significantly increase its amorphous graphite production. In South America, Brazil is the major source of graphite production with large enough reserves and infrastructure to allow production growth. 72% 14% 4% 1% 1% 8% China India Mexico Madagascar Brazil Other Countries
  • 15. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 15 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Europe has been commercially producing amorphous, flake and vein type graphite for over 500 years and is in position to increase its production if graphite prices remain at current levels. There are multiple active or recently operational mines throughout Europe including Norway, Ukraine, Austria, Germany, Romania, Czech Republic, Sweden and Turkey. Past producing mines are already in the process of being reopened and exploration activity has picked up. We see strong production growth coming from Europe in light of higher prices and supply risks. Australia has been a graphite producer in the past but its main large flake mine was shut down in 1993 due to declining prices. Since then, exploration for graphite has restarted and the mine is being reactivated. Australia has all the ingredients to become a large flake producer over the next few years. Africa is currently a small graphite producer with Madagascar and Zimbabwe the two main producing countries. Previously a large producer, many mines also closed due to declining graphite prices. All African graphite deposits are plagued with poor infrastructure, high energy costs and high-risk geopolitical jurisdictions. African graphite is world renowned for its large and high purity flake that command high prices in today’s markets. There are many deposits identified in African countries such as Mozambique, South Africa, Uganda, Angola, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Namibia with several exploration and production companies already busy acquiring the properties. Africa has the potential to increase its production, however with the high risk associated with operating on the continent, it would take the right combination of deposit, location and company to start production of an industrial metal that is yet to show its true face. Figure 9: Production of Natural Graphite Source: USGS, IAS .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 Graphite(Mt) Total India China Country Production (t) Brazil 76,000 Canada 25,000 China 800,000 India 140,000 North Korea 30,000 Madagascar 5,000 Mexico 7,000 Norway 2,000 Romania 20,000 Sri Lanka 8,000 Ukraine 6,000 Other Countries 185,000 Total for 2010 1,125,000
  • 16. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 16 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Looking at the period starting from 1994 to 2010 (Figure 9), the production of natural graphite maintained a stable demand all the way until 1999 when demand started growing at an overall annual rate of 4% to 6%. This growth is attributed to both traditional uses of graphite coming from the development of BRIC countries as well as from advances in the high tech uses of graphite. Assuming there was no major excess in supply in the mentioned period, we use linear regression to estimate our base case growth in graphite demand at approximately 2.5%. We then consider two growth scenarios, one at 4% and the other at 6% (Figure 10). The 4% case assumes that amorphous and vein graphite grow at a stable 2.5% annual rate (same as base case) and flake graphite grows at an increasing annual rate from 4% to 8%. In this case, the proportion of flake graphite to total demand grows from an initial 34% to 40%. The 6% growth case assumes the demand for all types of graphite increases equally. Based on these growth parameters, we estimate the number of additional mines that will need to go into production to satisfy the global demand from 2012 to 2020. We take into account a conservative estimate for mine depletion, organic growth and new mines in India and North Korea and consider two cases for China: one at 1% production growth and the other at 2% growth. We assume that new mines will predominantly open in Canada, Europe, Brazil, Australia, Africa and Mexico with an annual production ranging between 15-20Ktpy. Figure 10: Summary of Supply & Demand Estimates *23 additional mines are not enough to meet the demand in that specific case Source: IAS 1% China Growth 2% China Growth 2.5% Base Case 7 4 4% Growth Case 12 8 6% Growth Case 23* 23 Annual Demand Growth Additional Mines Required
  • 17. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 17 of 31 Kiril Mugerman 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Graphite(Mt) Supply Estimate (23 new mines) Supply Estimate (8 new mines) Supply Estimate (4 new mines) Demand @ 6% Demand @ 4% Demand Base Case 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Graphite(Mt) Supply Estimate (23 new mines*) Supply Estimate (12 new mines) Supply Estimate (7 new mines) Demand @ 6% Demand @ 4% Demand Base Case Figure 11: Estimated Supply and Demand – 2011 to 2020 *23 additional mines are not enough to meet the demand in that specific case Source: IAS GRAPHITE PRICES The recent increase in graphite prices is undoubtedly the main cause for the increased interest in this industry today, however ironically it is this metric that has the least amount of data available. Graphite prices, just like most industrial metals, are negotiated directly between the buyer and the seller based on a common posted price. The main data available today is supplied by Indusrial Minerals Magazine, the source of most graphite specific research in the industry (Figure 12). The main parameters used in pricing graphite are flake size and purity along with other factors such as ash content and composition, humidity and sulfur content determining the final price. The variation in these parameters creates a price range for a specific flake size and purity as seen in Figure 12. The benchmark purity in the industry is 94-97% C for natural graphite. Increase in flake size at a constant purity adds a gradual premium to the product (Figure 13) while a decrease in purity at the same flake size causes a significant decrease in price (Figure 14). Prices for upgraded purities or modified products such as spherical or expanded graphite are not commonly quoted but are known to go as high as $20,000/t. 1% Production Growth in China 2% Production Growth in China
  • 18. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 18 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 12: Graphite Price 2000-2011: Large Flake +80, 94-97% C Source: Northern Graphite, Industrial Minerals Magazine Figure 13: Average Graphite Price 2010-2012: Variation in flake size Source: Industrial Minerals Magazine, IAS Figure 14: Average Graphite Price 2010-2012: Variation in purity Source: Industrial Minerals Magazine, IAS $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Large Flake +80 94-97%C Medium Flake +100 94-97%C Amorphous 80-85%C $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Medium Flake +100-80 94-97%C Medium Flake +100-80 90%C Medium Flake +100-80 85-87%C
  • 19. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 19 of 31 Kiril Mugerman 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GraphitePrice($/t) Graphite(Mt) Supply Estimate (4 new mines) Demand Base Case Avg. Large Flake +80, 94-97%C Estimated Price Looking at the last 20 years, graphite prices sustained a low at below $1000/t from the early 90’s to 2005 caused by the low cost Chinese graphite production. Subsequently, new demand from the green tech sector, export restrictions, stricter environmental regulations, mine depletion and rising energy and transportation costs have all contributed to a rebound of graphite prices in the recent years. Looking forward, and not withstanding significant global events, we estimate future large flake and high purity graphite prices based on the rebound level seen in the last 2 years together with our demand growth base case model (Figure 15). Figure 15: Average Graphite Prices 2010-2012: Variation in purity Source: IAS WHY THE RUSH FOR LARGE FLAKE - THE COST FACTOR It is now fairly clear what potential graphite holds if all these new technologies are adopted over the next 10 years. The main question remaining is if the hunt for large flake deposits is justified or not? Do you really need large flake or can the cheaper fine and amorphous material do the same job? Our discussions with manufacturers of graphite end products have highlighted one common theme – all flakes can be worked with, but the purification cost does not always allow it. As a rule of thumb, the larger the flake, the higher the purity of the concentrate and therefore less treatment is required to bring the graphite to above 97% C. This reduces production costs for the miner who can then sell it at prices normally achieved through chemical and thermal upgrading. The Chinese cost structure and lax environmental regulations have allowed this purification at low cost in the past, suppressing prices throughout the ‘90s. Recent changes in these regulations and increases in energy and transportation costs have driven the prices up to levels where high purity and thus larger flake deposits outside of China can once more be economical. Prices for the lower quality amorphous and flake graphite destined to traditional uses that do not require major chemical and thermal upgrading, are significantly lower; production margins 1% Production Growth in China
  • 20. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 20 of 31 Kiril Mugerman are therefore less economical for projects outside of China. In addition to that, indications are that production of SFG, which commands premium prices, is more cost efficient when manufactured from larger flake as loss is minimized. Overall, there are mixed indications as to how much large and high purity flake graphite China can produce at low cost going forward. Deposits with larger flake production are therefore better positioned to weather the storm if China does increase production significantly forcing prices down again. GRAPHITE – FROM EXPLORATION TO MINING Graphite is a common mineral that is found in many geological environments but is mostly found in trace quantities or as an alteration mineral. Based on the type of graphite explored, for a deposit to be economical it needs to have a combination of characteristics. The exploration part is relatively quick and straight forward. Initial discoveries are done by prospecting for graphite showings in outcrops. This is then followed up by a geophysical conductivity survey, also known as electromagnetic survey (EM), which is used to better delineate the mineralized zones. The EM survey is very efficient due to graphite’s conductivity. Nonetheless, due to the structural complexity of many graphite deposits, anomalies may result from interfering conductive effects and therefore need to be accepted only as an indication of potential mineralization and not the size of the deposit. Furthermore, the lower grade disseminated deposits might not respond well to an EM survey and therefore could be identified primarily by prospecting. These potential targets would then be followed up by surface mapping and sometimes trenching used to understand the structural complexity of the ore body and to plan the drilling exploration program. This concludes the target generation stage. The next stage is the resource identification and definition portion which includes drilling and metallurgical studies. Drilling programs are relatively shallow as most deposits tend to be open pit operations. Some high grade amorphous and vein graphite mines are underground but still relatively shallow. Based on these parameters and depending on the structural complexity of the deposit, around 10,000 to 15,000m of drilling are required to properly delineate an ore body. Metallurgical sampling should begin shortly after initial drilling as this will determine the economics of the project in terms of recovery, separation, purity and flake distribution. Ideally, a resource estimate should be produced once initial metallurgical data is available. Without metallurgical data, even a large deposit might prove to be uneconomical as recoveries, purity and flake distribution might prove to be non favorable. The cost of these two stages will vary depending on the existing infrastructure, jurisdiction and the remoteness of the project. Overall, these costs could range from $2M to $5M and depending on the pace of exploration, could be completed as quickly as 12-24 months.
  • 21. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 21 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Not all graphite discoveries follow that order. Some ore bodies are identified through exploration for massive sulphides, gold and other metals. In that case, the timeline and the cost structure changes. An example of that is the Green Giant deposit of Energizer Resources where the company used to explore for vanadium and the Albany deposit by Zenyatta Ventures that was first explored for massive sulphides. Pre-feasibility, feasibility, permitting and development are project specific in terms of time but as a rough estimate, total cost is expected to be between $100 and $200M. KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF GRAPHITE DEPOSITS For a graphite deposit to be economical, we estimate that the ore body needs to contain over 500,000 tonnes of in situ graphite to support over 20 years of mine life at a production rate around 15 to 20Ktpy. Most flake deposits are relatively low grade and primarily open pittable operations. Hydrothermal, magmatic, vein and amorphous deposits can be both open pittable and underground. The economics of every deposit depend on five key parameters: Ore body geometry (shallow, flat dipping, etc.) Recoveries (flake liberation from simple crushing and grinding) Grade & Size Purity of graphite (without chemical or thermal upgrade) Flake size distribution Out of these 5 parameters, grade & size act as a buffer between purity and flake distribution and ore body geometry and recoveries (Figure 16). The two main factors controlling the price of graphite are purity and flake size distribution which are related. As mentioned earlier, without using any thermal or acid beneficiation, as flake size increases so does the purity and therefore the price of graphite. On the other hand, main operating costs of the deposit will depend on the geometry of the deposit and recoveries. Considering that most graphite deposits will be structurally complex, the geometry of the ore body will determine the amount of waste rock processed while mining. To summarize, the steeper the deposit or the lower the recoveries, the higher the purity and larger flake size are required to make a project economical.
  • 22. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 22 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 16: Key parameters for a graphite deposit Source: IAS GRAPHITE EXPLORATION - CLASS OF 2012 The last time a large number of graphite projects were being explored or developed was during the ‘90s. Since then, the best deposits were either acquired by large graphite producers (e.g. IMERYS, GK Graphite) or by state owned companies, the smaller deposits abandoned and several mines mothballed. The class of 2012 will face a similar destiny as we do not expect the majority of the junior exploration companies to take their deposits into production. Only the best deposits, if discovered in the beginning of the demand growth cycle, have the potential to get developed by the actual exploration company. The key to development will be vertical integration through graphite upgrading although it will require a competent management team with the industry knowledge and experience. Other projects will get acquired by the likes of IMERYS and GK Graphite with the potential of more major producers such as Superior Graphite and Asbury Carbons returning to mining and exploration. Finally, a push by companies from China and India is expected to take place as both nations look to secure supply outside of their own borders. As of end of April 2012, we identify 36 public exploration companies that are targeting graphite. The number of projects exploded as of November 2011 when project acquisitions from private owners grew to over 12 projects per month (Figure 17). Now, this amounts for a total of 98 projects distributed across North and South America, Africa, Europe and Australia (Figure 18). Grade & Size Purity & Flake Distribution Recoveries & Ore Body Geometry
  • 23. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 23 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 17: Global growth in number of graphite projects Source: Graphite focused exploration companies public filings and IAS With such a large number of projects being added, it is inevitable that a large portion of them will end up as low quality targets, never reaching development or even resource definition drilling. We therefore use all the key characteristics presented in this report to create categories into which we classify all the 98 projects (Figure 19). Based on this division, we isolate 6 companies with 7 projects that we focus on as our Top Tier. This is followed by 12 companies in the Mid Tier and 18 companies in the Lower Tier. Companies with projects across several categories are ranked based on their most advanced project. The 6 categories are defined as: 1. Target generation – Projects that are undergoing historic data compilation with ongoing or historical geophysical work. Some of these projects have been staked strategically close to existing or past producing mines and require reconnaissance field work. Other projects have been staked based on showings of graphite during exploration for other metals. 2. Early stage exploration – Projects with active field work (trenching or drilling), with historical drilling targeting graphite or with past producing assets from 20 to 60 years ago. Assay results and early metallurgical data is sometimes available. 3. Resource definition & historical resources – Active drilling delineating a resource or projects with historical resources that require confirmation drilling. 4. Advanced exploration – Active drilling to increase and / or upgrade the resource with ongoing metallurgical test work. Projects with recent history of commercial production including historical resources, metallurgical work and historical infrastructure. 5. PFS & BFS – Projects with ongoing pre-feasibility or bankable feasibility studies. 6. Development – Development of the mine and the processing facilities. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Pre Nov 2011 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Numberof Projects
  • 24. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 24 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 18: Geographic distribution of graphite exploration projects Source: Company Filings Figure 19: Stages of exploration by company – as of May 1st , 2012 Note: Several companies appear in multiple categories as they have several projects in different stages. Source: IAS In addition to these companies, we are tracking several private companies that are intending to go public in the upcoming months with projects that would fit the top and mid tier categories. For the projects in the lower tier, we expect some to reach the mid tier status by the end of the year. A performance analysis of the three individual groups (Figure 20-22) highlights that investor interest in early stage graphite projects reached a saturation point in April. The Mid Tier companies representing the fastest growth potential with their drill ready projects grew steadily in the last 6 months while the Top Tier companies peaked in early April. The Top Tier companies have the highest expectations as they need to produce quality results and make the right moves to bring their projects closer to production in order to benefit from the first mover advantage and the high graphite prices. The Mid Tier group will supply the next crop of high quality projects offering the largest growth potential in the short term. Top Tier 6 companies Mid Tier 12 companies Lower Tier 18 companies Stage Companies Total Projects North America South America Africa Europe Australia 1 27 69 50 0 1 0 19 2 14 22 12 1 2 5 2 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 3 4 1 0 0 3 0 5 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Companies Tracked: 36 Projects Tracked: 98
  • 25. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 25 of 31 Kiril Mugerman The Lower Tier has the growth potential investors are looking for but due to financing risks and lower project quality will see a large amount of projects abandoned over the next 12-24 months. Figure 20: 6 Month performance of Top Tier companies Source: Goolge Finance Figure 21: 6 Month performance of Mid Tier companies Source: Goolge Finance Figure 22: 6 Month performance of Lower Tier companies Source: Goolge Finance
  • 26. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 26 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 23: Comparison of Graphite Invested Exploration Companies Source: Bloomberg, IAS Figure 24: Comparison of Top Tier Graphite Exploration Companies *Historical data. Non 43-101 compliant. Source: Bloomberg, Company filings, IAS, Company Ticker Mkt Cap (M$) Projects Flagship Project Jurisdiction M&I (Mt) M&I Grade (%Cg) Inferred (Mt) Inferred Grade (%Cg) Recovery (%) Purity (%C) Flake Distribution Northern Graphite Corp. NGC 100 1 Bissett Creek Ontario, Canada 25.98 1.81 55.04 1.57 97.1 96.7 80% @ +32/+50/+80 Focus Metals Inc. FMS 84 1 Lac Knife Quebec, Canada 4.94 15.76 3.00 15.58 85.9 N/A 85% @ +48/+65/+150/+200 Talga Gold Ltd. TLG.AX 19 7 Nunasvaara Sweden 3.6 23 N/A N/A 87% @ +80/+140 Flinders Resrouces Ltd. FDR 95 1 Woxna Sweden 6.93* 8.82* N/A 94* 68% @ +80/+200* Uragold Bay Resources Inc. UBR 5 2 Asbury Mine Quebec, Canada 0.58* 10* 85* 90* 75% @ +80/+200* Standard Graphite Corp. SGH 11 13 Mousseau East QC & ON, Canada 1.11* 8.28* N/A N/A 60% @ +100* NGC FMS TLG.AX FDR UBR SGH AXE.AX EGZ GPH LRA LMR SRK SYR.AX ZEN 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 MarketCap($M) Top Tier Mid Tier Lower Tier
  • 27. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 27 of 31 Kiril Mugerman Figure 25: Mid and Lower Tier Graphite Exploration Companies Source: Bloomberg, IAS Company Ticker Tier Mkt Cap (M$) Projects Jurisdiction Archer Exploration Ltd. AXE.AX Mid 31 9 Australia Canada Rare Earths Inc. CJC Mid 3 5 Quebec, Canada Energizer Resources Inc. EGZ Mid 45 1 Madagascar Graphite One Resources Inc. GPH Mid 21 1 Alaska, USA Greenlight Resources Inc. GR Mid 2 2 NS & NB, Canada Lara Exploration Ltd. LRA Mid 29 1 Brazil Lomiko Metals Inc. LMR Mid 7 1 Quebec, Canada Soldi Ventures Inc. SOV Mid 3 2 Quebec, Canada Strike Graphite Corp. SRK Mid 14 3 Sask. & QC, Canada Syrah Resources Limited SYR.AX Mid 162 2 Mozambique, Tanzania Velocity Minerals Ltd. VLC Mid 6 3 Quebec, Canada Zenyatta Ventures Ltd. ZEN Mid 22 1 Ontario, Canada Amseco Exploration Ltd. AEL Lower 3 7 Quebec, Canada Anglo Swiss Resources Inc. ASW Lower 9 1 BC, Canada Atocha Resources Inc. ATT Lower 2 2 Quebec, Canada Big North Graphite Corp. NRT Lower 2 2 QC & ON, Canada Bravura Ventures Corp. BVQ Lower 1 3 Quebec, Canada Canadian Mining Company Inc. CNG Lower 2 1 Mexico Caribou King Resources Ltd. CKR Lower 2 3 Ontario, Canada Cavan Ventures Inc. CVN Lower 2 2 QC & Sask, Canada First Graphite Corp. FGR Lower 5 3 QC, BC & Sask, Canada Galaxy Capital Corp. GXY Lower 2 2 Quebec, Canada Geomega Resources Inc. GMA Lower 12 1 Quebec, Canada Kent Exploration Inc. KEX Lower 3 1 New Zealand Lincoln Minerals Ltd. LML.AX Lower 25 1 South Australia Logan Copper Inc. LC Lower 1 1 Quebec, Canada Monax Mining Limited MOX.AX Lower 10 1 South Australia Pinestar Gold Inc. PNS Lower 3 9 NSW, SA & W. Australia Rare Earth Metals Inc. RA Lower 6 1 Ontario, Canada Terra Firma Resources Inc. TFR Lower 2 1 Ontario, Canada
  • 28. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 28 of 31 Kiril Mugerman CONCLUSION Growth in demand has triggered Chinese export regulations which in turn have resulted in a price increase, forming ideal conditions for the graphite sector and attracting many exploration companies across the globe in a short period of time. Our analysis of the entire sector confirms the supply shortage scenario highly speculated by the industry and suggests that a minimum of 4 new mines and as many as 23 will be needed to go into production outside of India and China between now and 2020 to cope with the growth in demand. We identify 36 companies, out of which 6 qualify for our Top Tier category. These companies operate the most advanced projects that could be taken into production in a short time frame. Companies in this group are likely to enjoy the first-mover advantage and produce returns for investors in both the short and the long term. In our Mid Tier, we identify 22 projects operated by 12 Companies that have legitimate targets still requiring several exploration campaigns to delineate the deposit. We expect several large discoveries to come from this group that could ultimately provide the largest return for investors in this sector. Our final group, the Lower Tier, represents the highest risk category with many projects expected not to be taken even to the initial drilling stages. As the exploration season heats up, investors will need to look for the first indications of which companies are wasting time and which are advancing step by step in establishing the right deposit, the right management and most importantly the right graphite to start production in the next 3 to 5 years.
  • 29. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 29 of 31 Kiril Mugerman LEGAL DISCLOSURE Investment Recommendation Rating System Top Pick: The stock represents our best investment ideas, the greatest potential value appreciation. Strong Buy: The stock is expected to deliver a return exceeding 13% over the next 12 months. Buy: The stock is expected to deliver a return between 9% and 13% over the next 12 months. Hold: The stock is expected to deliver a return between 5% and 9% over the next 12 months. Sell: The stock is expected to deliver a return lower than 5% over the next 12 months. Speculative Buy: Stock bears significantly higher risk that typically cannot be valued by normal fundamental criteria. Investment in the stock may result in material loss. Distribution of Ratings, as of April 30, 2012 Rating Coverage Universe Top Pick 2% Strong Buy 21% Buy 14% Speculative Buy 21% Hold 7% Tender 5% Not Rated 30% Sell 0% 100% General: The information and any statistical data contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. The opinions expressed are based upon our analysis and interpretation of this information and are not to be constructed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Research analyst certification: The authoring research analyst(s) certify that the publication accurately reflects his/her personal opinions and recommendations about the issuer company and that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views as to the securities or the company. Copyright: This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or further distributed or published or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions or conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express written consent the institutional department of Industrial Alliance Securities. Company related disclosures: Issuer Company Ticker Applicable Disclosures Northern Graphite Corp. TSX.V: NGC 7a, 8b Disclosure Legend 1. In the past 12 months, Industrial Alliance Securities has performed investment banking services for the issuer covered in this report (hereafter “the issuer”). 2. In the past 12 months, Industrial Alliance Securities has received compensation for investment banking services to the issuer. 3. In the past 12 months, Industrial Alliance Securities has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the issuer. 4. Industrial Alliance Securities makes a market in the securities of the issuer.
  • 30. Graphite Sector Overview May 1st , 2012 30 of 31 Kiril Mugerman 5. Industrial Alliance Securities beneficially owned 1% or more of the common equity (including derivatives exercisable or convertible within 60 days) of the issuer as of the month end preceding this report. 6. a. The Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s), who cover the issuer discussed, members of the research analyst’s household, research associate(s) or other individual(s) involved directly or indirectly in producing this report have a long position in its common equity securities. b. The Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s), who cover the issuer discussed, members of the research analyst’s household, research associate(s) or other individual(s) involved directly or indirectly in producing this report have a short position in its common equity securities. 7. a. The Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s) and/or associate(s) has visited the material operations of the issuer, and the related travel expenses have not been paid for by the issuer. b. The Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s) and/or associate(s) has visited the material operations of the issuer, and the related travel expenses have been paid for partially or fully by the issuer. 8. If the Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s) and/or associate(s) has visited the material operations of the issuer, a. The visit was conducted with Management on the premises of the head office or other administrative center of the issuer. b. The visit was conducted at the material operating facilities of the issuer including, but not restricted to, production plants, mines, fields, warehouses, distribution centers, or other facilities directly related to day- to-day operations. 9. The Industrial Alliance Securities research analyst(s) and/or associate(s) had communication with the issuer regarding the verification of factual material in this research publication. 10. In the past 12 months, the issuer is (or has been) a client of Industrial Alliance Securities and received non- banking and non-securities related services for which Industrial Alliance Securities received or expects to receive compensation. 11. In the past 12 months, a partner, director or officer of Industrial Alliance Securities or any analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this publication has provided services (other than for investment advisory or trade execution purposes) to the issuer for remuneration. 12. An officer or director of Industrial Alliance Securities, outside of the Equity Research Department, or a member of his/her household is an officer or director of the issuer or acts in an advisory capacity to the issuer. 13. The Industrial Alliance Securities supervisory analyst serves as an officer, director or employee of the issuer or acts in an advisory capacity to the issuer. 14. A director or officer of the issuer (or any of its affiliates) serves on the board of the Industrial Alliance Securities. 15. The publishing date for this research report falls within the restricted period for any recent IPO, secondary offering or lock-up agreement between the issuer and Industrial Alliance Securities. Research Dissemination Policy Industrial Alliance makes its research available in electronic and printed formats and makes every effort to disseminate research simultaneously to all eligible clients. Research is available to our institutional clients via Bloomberg and First Call as well as through our sales representatives via email, fax or regular mail. Electronic versions are distributed in PDF format. Industrial Alliance Securities is a Registered Trader on the Toronto Stock Exchange for the company that is the subject of this report.
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