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1Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS
BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS
29 JANUARY 2015
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
2Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE
Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.
Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of
Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions.
Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.
Resources plays: Our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.
The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this document “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for
convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those
who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell
companies” as used in this document refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred
to as “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to
indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical
fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and
assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations,
beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’,
‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of
factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this
presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results;
(e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and
targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and
regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l)
political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the
reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary
statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal
Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2013 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking
statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 29 January, 2015. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-
looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-
looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at
all.
We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the
SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by
calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
3Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
BEN VAN BEURDEN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
4Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
FOCUS ON HSSE
2014 UPDATE
Injuries – TRCF/million working hours
Goal Zero on safety
Injuries – TRCF/million working hours
Spills - operational
Volume in thousand tonnes
Energy intensity – refineries
Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)
Process safety
Number of incidents
million working hours
Working hours (RHS)TRCF
 HSSE priority
 Performance + transparency
Tier 1 incidents Tier 2 incidents
5Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
EXECUTING A CONSISTENT, LONG-TERM STRATEGY
 Unrelenting focus on HSSE
 Technology, integration and scale
 Disciplined capital investment by strategic theme
 Growth in cash flow through cycle
 Competitive shareholder returns
Total shareholder returns growth – 10 years
Index 1/1/2005 =100
 2014+ drive to rebalance growth and returns
Shell S&P500 FTSE100
6Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2050 outlook
 Population increases from 7 to 9 billion
 Enabled by cheap and reliable energy
Realities
 Requirement to mitigate climate change
 Oil supply -70% by 2030 without new investment
 Key role of gas & CCS
ENERGY TRANSITIONS
Long-term energy supply mix
Million boe per day
Gas
Biomass
Wind
Coal
Nuclear
Other renewables
Solar
Shell activities
Oil
 Energy transitions underway
+50%
+50%
7Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
Oil market downturn
 Entering 2015 with low oil prices
 Requirement for $500 billion industry investment
in upstream oil during 2014-20
 Under-spending amplifies price spike risks
Shell response
 Long-term $70 - $90 - $110 Brent oil price
screens unchanged
 Planning for low prices 2015+; uncertain
recovery timing
 Hard choices on our growth pipeline + options
 Opportunity to reduce costs
OIL MARKET + SHELL RESPONSE
Source: IEA estimates
Oil supply
Million barrels of oil per day
8Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
2014 DELIVERY
CCS earnings + ROACE excluding identified items
Earnings + ROACE
$ billion
Cash flow
$ billion
Dividend, buyback + gearing
$ billion
%
%
Upstream
Downstream
Corporate/Other
Dividend announced Buyback
CFFO CFFI
ROACE (RHS)
Free cash flow (RHS)
Gearing (RHS)
$ billion
Gearing
range
 Well-positioned into oil market downturn
 Asset sales delivered ahead of oil price
decline
 Enhanced free cash flow + lower gearing
9Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2014 DELIVERY
BALANCING GROWTH AND RETURNS
CCS earnings excluding identified items
 CCS earnings $22.6 billion; CFFO $45.0 billion
 Dividend growth + buyback
 Restructuring in Oil Products + North America
resources plays
 Moderated spending + growth
 Improved free cash flow; reduced gearing
 Early completion of 14-15 divestment plan
 4 operated deep-water start-ups
 Repsol LNG integration: >$1 billion CFFO impact
 New options in FEED; improved exploration
Improve our financial performance
Enhance our capital efficiency
Deliver new projects
10Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
More rigorous portfolio management Taking hard choices on funnel
~140 performance units add focus
 Increased shareholding requirements for
management
 Bottom line focus
 Credible, competitive + affordable plans
Resilience
Attractiveness
FEED
FID On-stream
Identify&Assess Select Define Execute Operate
ASPIRED
PORTFOLIO
ATTRACTIVENESS
Growth & returns
Opportunity scale
RESILIENCE
Risk, performance
&
uncertainty
STRATEGIC
INTENT
RESULTS
& PAY-
OUT
Grow
Exit
Fix/maintain
CHANGING EMPHASIS IN 2014+
SHARPER PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT + APPRAISAL
11Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PRIORITIES 2015+
 Choices on new options
 Supply chain management
 Managing affordability +
financial flexibility
 Preserving our competitive
growth pipeline in downturn
 Continued ramp-up of 2014
start-ups
 2015 transition year into
2016/17+ growth
 Returns and cash flow
 Competitive returns for
shareholders
 Restructuring underperforming
businesses
 Cost reduction programmes
Competitive financial
performance
Capital efficiency Project delivery
12Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING
 Optimise footprint
 Integrated value capture
 Selective investment in growth
markets
 Capital discipline and project
delivery
 Strong ROACE, 27% 2014
 Free cash flow reduction:
 Investment-heavy phase
 Cost and profitability pressures
 Late-life asset challenges
Resources plays Oil Products Upstream engine
Dry gas AcquisitionsLRS
 NA portfolio reduction completed
 2015+ reduction of International
portfolio
 Capital ceiling + cost reduction
Capital investment in $ billion
Asset sales (incl. MLP)
$ billion $ billion kboe per day (Shell share)
CFFO Production (RHS)
Capital investment
-30%
13Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
RESTRUCTURING RESOURCES PLAYS PORTFOLIO
Production excludes volumes from divestments
Production
kboe per day
Capital investment
$ billion
E&A
On-stream
Gas Liquids Rich
Colombia
Argentina
Neuquen
Ukraine
Oman Sichuan
Changbei
Arrow CBM
Changbei 2
Russia
Americas InternationalLiquids Gas
Permian
Appalachia
W. Canada LRS
W. Canada gas
 2014: North America portfolio
restructured ($3.3 billion asset
sales / 110 kboe/d)
 2015+:
 International portfolio reduction
+ possible write-downs
 Potential to further reduce
spending
Tunisia
-30%
`
Germany
Algeria
Turkey
14Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
Cash flow + ROACE
COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
DOWNSTREAM ENGINE
CCS earnings excluding identified items
%
Earnings 2013 to 2014
$ billion
Operating performance
% unplanned downtime
Cash flow ROACE (RHS)
Refining Chemicals
$ billion
 Self-help + improved joint venture
performance
 Launched new cost drive at end 2014
 10-12% ROACE + $10 billion p.a. CFFO
potential
15Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING: OIL PRODUCTS
Equity refinery positions
Portfolio change
Resilience
Attractiveness
Selective Growth:
 China
 LNG for transport
 Premium fuels + lubes
 Refinery crude flexibility
 others
Fix:
 Motiva
 Singapore fuels
 Pernis + Rheinland
 Malaysia
 Moerdijk
 others
Exit:
Italy 
Australia 
Norway
Denmark
others
 2014 asset sales + MLP: >$4 billion
 Ongoing divestments
 Efficiency + cost drive
 completed
Million b/d
Refining capacity
Europe Asia, Oceania, Africa
Americas
~ -20%
# of refineries
Refineries (RHS)
16Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING: UPSTREAM ENGINE
* 2018/19 potential, Shell share
Upstream engine portfolio Managed decline of legacy positions
kboe per day (Shell share)
 Restructuring focused on UKCS
 Reducing overheads
 Divesting assets
 Free cash flow improvement
 Operating costs and operational performance
 Exit tail-end and underperforming assets
 2017+ start-up of growth projects
Resilience
Attractiveness
~95
kboe/d*
Selective growth:
 Schiehallion
 Clair Ph2
 Val d’ Agri ph2
 Tempa Rossa
 Beryl
 Corrib
Maintain
 Norway
 NAM
 Malaysia
 Oman
 New Zealand
 Philippines
Fix
Denmark
Brunei
Gabon onshore
Exit / Dilute /
Decommissioning:
Nelson
Anasuria
Sean
Brent decommissioning
others
Netherlands
Oman
Malaysia
Norway
Brunei
UK
Abu Dhabi
Others
14 kboe/d
17Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
INVESTMENT PRIORITIES + PERFORMANCE
1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, Arctic, heavy oil
Engines (Downstream, Upstream engine)
 Free cash flow businesses
 Maintain competitiveness
 Asset integrity + selective growth
Growth priority (Integrated Gas, deep water)
 Global leadership established
 High-grading our rich opportunity set
Longer term (resources plays, future opportunities1)
 Major potential; managing non-technical risks
 Slower pace + capital allocation
 Investment choices driven on a global thematic basis
 Assets tested for attractiveness + resilience
ROACE (%)
CFFO in billion $
Downstream
engine
Upstream engine
Integrated gas
Deep water
Resources plays
Future opportunities
2014
(Brent $99/bbl)
2013
(Brent $109/bbl)
Bubble size represents
year-end capital employed
18Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE, CREDIBLE + AFFORDABLE PLANS
MODERATING OUR SPENDING + GROWTH OUTLOOK
2014 acquisitions: Repsol LNG
$ billion total capital investment $ billion organic capital investment
 Project re-phasing / deferral
 Supply chain savings
 Dilutions + exits
> -15%
 2015 organic spending lower than 2014
 Retaining options for medium term
 Flexibility to reduce further
Upstream
Downstream / Corporate
Acquisitions
2015
potential
2015
plan
19Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
SIMON HENRY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
20Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
21Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
Q4 2014 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; ROACE 12 months rolling
Earnings Q4 2013 to Q4 2014
$ billion
Q4
2013
Q4
2014
$ billion
UPSTREAM 2.5 1.7
DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 0.6 1.6
CORPORATE & MINORITIES (0.1) (0.0)
CCS NET EARNINGS 2.9 3.3
CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 0.46 0.52
CASH FROM OPERATIONS 6.0 9.6
ROACE (%) 8.9 10.2
SHARE BUYBACKS 1.0 1.0
DIVIDENDS 2.8 3.0
DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE 0.45 0.47
Environment Choice
22Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
Q4 2014 PERFORMANCE
Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items
Upstream earnings + cash flow
$ billion
Oil and gas production
million boe/d
Downstream earnings + cash flow
$ billion
Availability and sales volumes
%
million tonnes per annum
Upstream International Upstream Americas
Cash flow from operations (RHS)
sales volumes
Refinery availability
Chemicals availability Oil products (million bbls/d) (RHS)
Chemicals (million tonnes) (RHS)Oil Products Chemicals
CFFO (RHS)
Gas Oil LNG Sales volumes (RHS)
$ billion
$ billion
23Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PRELIMINARY RESULTS
SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION
1 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and price impacts
2 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders
2014 Reserves performance
 2014 RRR 26%
 2012-14 RRR 67%
 Reserves life at end 2014 ~11.2 years
2012-14 Reserves average performance
 Organic1 additions ~1.0 billion boe
 Production ~1.2 billion boe
 Organic reserves replacement 85%
Reserves Replacement SEC proved reserves
Major reserves additions
2012-14 Reserves additions
2012-14 2014
Organic 85% 47%
Organic incl. price effects 76% 50%
SEC proved reserves2 67% 26%
(billion boe) 2012 2013 2014
Organic reserves additions 1.0 1.5 0.5
Production 1.2 1.2 1.2
SEC proved reserves2 13.6 13.9 13.1
24Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
OIL + GAS RESOURCES FUNNEL
Converting resources to production…
Billion boe
Baronia EOR /
Tukau Timur
Bonga Main ph3
Coulomb ph2
Longer-term upside
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
On-stream
Execute (under construction)
Select/Define
Production
Bonga North West
Cardamom
Gumusut-Kakap
Mars B
Petai
Sabah gas KBB
 Asset sales + capital ceiling
 Fewer FIDs in 2014
 Maintaining attractive project
flow
Appomattox
Browse
resources plays
Val d’Agri ph2
Vito
others
25Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION
EXECUTING A CONSISTENT AND SUCCESSFUL EXPLORATION STRATEGY
ARCTIC
Long-term potential for
industry
FRONTIER
Build-up of acreage in
under-explored basins
HEARTLANDS
New plays in Shell
producing basins
NEAR-FIELD High-value add-ons
Prospect
size
(million boe)
Time to
development
(years)
15+
10+
3+
<3 5-50
50-250
>250
>500
Spend includes acquisitions
 Low-cost access to new barrels: balancing exploration risk and returns
2015 spend
Frontier / Arctic
NFE
Heartlands / Libra
26Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
EXPLORATION: 2014 PERFORMANCE
Malaysia heartlands
 NFE success, 3
heartland discoveries,
1 successful appraisal
 ~300 mmboe for Shell
in 2014
Gabon deep-water frontier
 Sub-salt deep-water gas
discovery
 Shell 75%, operator
Frontier
Near-field
Frontier basin
 Improved delivery in 2014
 10 frontier + heartlands successes
 41 near-field finds
Australia heartlands
 2014: Lympstone discovery
 NFE success
2014 drilling success
Heartlands
GOM deep-water heartlands
 2014: Rydberg, Kaikias, Power Nap
+ Gettysburg discoveries
 >1300 mmboe for Shell 2009+
Brazil - Libra
NW1 successful appraisal
C-1 well drilling
Shell 20%
27Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2015 OUTLOOK
Macro sensitivity @ $70-110/bbl Brent
2014 asset sales + license expiries
(2015 vs. 2014 impact)
-100 kboe/d; -0.3 mtpa LNG
~-75 kbpd refining capacity; -145 kbpd marketing
~-$1 billion divestment tax charge impacting CFFO
Maintenance downtime / other
(2015 vs. 2014 impact)
-60 kboe/d (Pearl T1, AOSP, GOM, others)
Reduced Chemicals availability (80% in 2015 vs.
85% in 2014)
Ramp-up of 2014 + 2015 start-ups
Macro
$10/bbl Brent +/- ~$3.3 billion CFFO/earnings per
annum
Q1-Q1 outlook:
 Maintenance -90 kboe/d (Pearl + Auger)
 Divestment, license expiry, Majnoon cost
recovery: ~ -200 kboe/d
 Moerdijk chemicals downtime
Pearl GTL, Qatar
28Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITIES
Priorities for cash
1. Debt service
2. Dividends: growth policy
3. Capital investment: disciplined
through-cycle growth
4. Return surplus cash: buybacks
Cash performance
Investment
Balance sheet
CFFO
Pay-out
Cash dividend Buyback
Gearing
CFFI
$ billion
%
$ billion
$ billion
$ billion
Net debt
 Balancing cash in / cash out
across cycle
 Maintaining strong balance
sheet
29Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
Short term Medium term
Strategic
long term
CONSISTENT DELIVERY OF COST REDUCTION PROGRAMMES
MULTI-BILLION $ OPPORTUNITY IN SHELL + SUPPLY CHAIN
North America resources plays
$ million 2014 savings (opex + capex)
Supply chain
Drilling, projects and operating costs excludes portfolio effects
Contract renegotiations
Design to cost/Design to value
Use of EFAs/location choice
Price
Design
Demand
>15%
savings
Supply chain
 Low-cost countries + global suppliers
 Standardisation
Overheads
 Right-sizing with asset sales
 Offshoring + efficiency drive
 Multi-billion dollar reduction in supply chain
 Operating cost reduction 2014-15
30Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2014
Woodside 9.5%
Wheatstone LNG
Australia downstream
Italy downstream
US midstream MLP
NA non-core LRS
Pinedale + Haynesville dry gas
BC-10 dilution
ADCO license expiry
Nigeria onshore
315 kboe/d oil + gas
~120,000 b/d refining capacity
240,000 b/d marketing
0.6 mtpa LNG
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
EARLY DELIVERY OF 2014-15 $15 BILLION DIVESTMENT PLAN
Divestment/exitAsset sales add focus
$ billion
Asset sales + MLP proceeds
 $5-6 billion p.a. ongoing divestment
 2015 divestments likely lower pace
Early delivery
of 2014-15
target Australia upstream
refocus
Monetise non-core
Oil Products
Resources plays
reduction
ongoing footprint reduction
31Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PORTFOLIO CHOICES DRIVING PROFITABILITY
Upstream CFFO*
$ billion
Production
million boe per day
 Enhancing profitability
+25%
* CFFO excludes working capital + oil & gas price effects
Underlying +2%
32Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
 Growth priorities unchanged
 Driving competitive cash flow
CAPITAL EFFICIENCY
INVESTMENT PRIORITIES
1 Resources plays, Majnoon, infill drilling
Organic capital investmentInvestment themes
Growth priorities: 40%
Longer term: 25%
Engines: 35%
2015
organic capital
investment
50%
10%
40%
Pre-FID large
project options
Base
Short-cycle
projects1
Post-FID large
projects
Conventional
exploration
2015
organic capital
investment
CFFO impact
of 2015 investment
’15-’16
’17-’18
‘19+
33Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
CASH PERFORMANCE + PAY-OUT
Cash flow
$ billion
Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments1
 2014 dividend and buyback $15 billion
 2015 dividend ~$12 billion
 Buybacks in 2015 subject to oil prices
 Gearing likely to increase in 2015
$ billion
Gearing and pay-out
Dividend track record
$ billion
Dividends announced
2012-2014 2014
Dividend Free cash flow
%
Gearing (RHS)Buybacks
Pay-out
Dividend is dividend announced
1 Includes MLP proceeds
34Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
BEN VAN BEURDEN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
35Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
PROJECT DELIVERY
36Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
 BC-10 ph3
 Bonga Main ph3
 Corrib
 Erha North ph2
 Forcados Yokri
 Gbaran-Ubie ph2
 Gorgon LNG
 ML South
 NA LRS/tight gas
 Stones
2017-192015-16
PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Production
kboe per day (Shell share) million tonnes per annum
 >700 kboe/d + 7.5 mtpa LNG under
construction
 High-margin production
 Growth uptick 2017+
2015-16 start-ups2014 start-ups
LNG volume (RHS)2017-19 start-ups
 Mars B 
 Bonga NW 
 Cardamom 
 Baronia /Tukau Timur
 Carmon Creek
 Clair ph2
 Coulomb
 Kashagan ph1
 Malikai
 MMLS LNG (Elba)
 Prelude FLNG
 Rabab Harweel
 Schiehallion
 Southern Swamp
 Tempa Rossa
 TNP loopline
 Gumusut-Kakap 
 Petai 
 Sabah gas KBB 
2014
Shell-operated
 started up
37Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PROJECT DELIVERY
MANAGING OUR OPPORTUNITY SET
2015-16 FID options 17 potential FIDs 2015-16
 >$15 billion spending mitigation planned
2015-17:
 Re-phasing / deferral
 Supply chain
 Dilutions + exits
Downstream
Upstream
Options deferred /
cancelled
FID choices
2015-16
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES
Carmon Creek ph3+4
postponed
Majnoon full field
RESOURCES
PLAYS
World-wide restructuring Canada, Lower 48,
Argentina, other
DEEP WATER
Deferral of FIDs
Slower pace in Nigeria
Appomattox
Vito
Bonga South West
Libra pilot FPSO vessel
INTEGRATED
GAS
Asia Pacific slow-down
Arrow LNG greenfield
cancelled
Elba LNG (site)
LNG Canada T1+2
Browse LNG
UPSTREAM
ENGINE
Selected base projects Val d’Agri ph2
Bokor
DOWNSTREAM
ENGINE
Al Karaana chemicals
cancelled
Selected base projects
Pennsylvania chem.
Geismar alpha olefins
China chemicals
Debottleneck projects
> 700 kboe/d
~12 mtpa LNG
2.7 mtpa chemicals
38Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE: BALANCING GROWTH AND RETURNS
Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities
ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items
Cash flow from operations
$ billion
Free cash flow
$ billion
ROACE – underlying
%
Total shareholder return (2012-2014)
%
Shell Peer group
Shell competitors
39Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PRIORITIES 2015+
 Choices on new options
 Supply chain management
 Managing affordability +
financial flexibility
 Preserving our competitive
growth pipeline in downturn
 Continued ramp-up of 2014
start-ups
 2015 transition year into
2016/17+ growth
 Returns and cash flow
 Competitive returns for
shareholders
 Restructuring underperforming
businesses
 Cost reduction programmes
Competitive financial
performance
Capital efficiency Project delivery
40Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS
41Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
KEY UPSTREAM PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Deep water
Integrated gas
Resources plays
Future opportunities
Upstream engine
42Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
PRE-FID OPTIONS
POTENTIAL 2015-2016 FEEDS AND FIDS
Deep water
Integrated gas
Resources plays
Future opportunities
Downstream engine
Upstream engine
43Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2014 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION: EXAMPLES
Frontier: Gabon deep water Heartland: GOM NFE: Oman, Lekhwair campaign
Noble Globetrotter 2 Exploration drilling in North Oman
 Leopard sub-salt gas discovery
 Multi-TCF potential
 New gas play
 Shell 75%
 4 deep-water oil discoveries
 Rydberg oil discovery in Norphlet
 ~110 million boe (Shell 57%)
 Kaikias oil discovery
 ~35 million boe (Shell 100%)
 Assessing new Power Nap +
Gettysburg finds
 11 wells drilled in 2014
 ~150 million barrels oil (100%)
 Further potential Greater
Lekhwair area
 Shell 34%
Mars
Kaikias
Nakika
Vito
Appomattox
Mars B
Rydberg
Ram Powell
Ursa
On-stream
FEED
2014 exploration success
Brutus
100 km
Power Nap
Gettysburg
44Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
DELIVER NEW PROJECTS
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Upstream project status
Construction time elapsed %
 Oversight and accountability
 Track record
Construction time elapsed %
photo
Corrib gas: national grid into Bellanaboy facility
45Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
2014
$ billion
CCS earnings CFFO
2014 organic
capital
investment
Capital
employed
ROACE
Engines
DOWNSTREAM
ENGINE
6 11 6 49 11%
UPSTREAM
ENGINE
5 8 7 18 27%
GrowthPriorities
INTEGRATED
GAS
10 13 6 58 18%
DEEP WATER
3 6 7 24 12%
LongerTerm
RESOURCES
PLAYS
(2) 0 4 20 (9)%
FUTURE
OPPORTUNITIES1
1 5 5 30 2%
DECONSTRUCTING OUR PORTFOLIO
Mature + drives free cash flow
Profitable + growing
Returns impacted by growth spend
CCS earnings excluding identified items; ROACE based on CCS earnings excluding identified items
1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, Arctic, heavy oil
46Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION + APPRAISAL: KEY WELLS 2015-2016
‘15 ‘16
Frontier
Heartlands
 2015 drilling in 14 basins
Albania
US GOM
Brunei
Nigeria
Australia
Gabon
Turkey
China
Malaysia
Namibia
Canada
Denmark
Egypt
Brazil: Libra
Alaska
New Zealand
47Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015
FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS
BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS
29 JANUARY 2015
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

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Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2014 results analyst webcast presentation

  • 1. 1Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS 29 JANUARY 2015 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
  • 2. 2Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 DEFINITIONS & CAUTIONARY NOTE Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. Resources plays: Our use of the term ‘resources plays’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this document “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this document refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Companies over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and companies over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘risks’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘should’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including potential litigation and regulatory measures as a result of climate changes; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended 31 December, 2013 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, 29 January, 2015. Neither Royal Dutch Shell nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward- looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward- looking statements contained in this presentation. There can be no assurance that dividend payments will match or exceed those set out in this presentation in the future, or that they will be made at all. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discovery potential, that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.
  • 3. 3Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
  • 4. 4Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 FOCUS ON HSSE 2014 UPDATE Injuries – TRCF/million working hours Goal Zero on safety Injuries – TRCF/million working hours Spills - operational Volume in thousand tonnes Energy intensity – refineries Energy Intensity Index (EEITM) Process safety Number of incidents million working hours Working hours (RHS)TRCF  HSSE priority  Performance + transparency Tier 1 incidents Tier 2 incidents
  • 5. 5Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 EXECUTING A CONSISTENT, LONG-TERM STRATEGY  Unrelenting focus on HSSE  Technology, integration and scale  Disciplined capital investment by strategic theme  Growth in cash flow through cycle  Competitive shareholder returns Total shareholder returns growth – 10 years Index 1/1/2005 =100  2014+ drive to rebalance growth and returns Shell S&P500 FTSE100
  • 6. 6Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2050 outlook  Population increases from 7 to 9 billion  Enabled by cheap and reliable energy Realities  Requirement to mitigate climate change  Oil supply -70% by 2030 without new investment  Key role of gas & CCS ENERGY TRANSITIONS Long-term energy supply mix Million boe per day Gas Biomass Wind Coal Nuclear Other renewables Solar Shell activities Oil  Energy transitions underway +50% +50%
  • 7. 7Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 Oil market downturn  Entering 2015 with low oil prices  Requirement for $500 billion industry investment in upstream oil during 2014-20  Under-spending amplifies price spike risks Shell response  Long-term $70 - $90 - $110 Brent oil price screens unchanged  Planning for low prices 2015+; uncertain recovery timing  Hard choices on our growth pipeline + options  Opportunity to reduce costs OIL MARKET + SHELL RESPONSE Source: IEA estimates Oil supply Million barrels of oil per day
  • 8. 8Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2014 DELIVERY CCS earnings + ROACE excluding identified items Earnings + ROACE $ billion Cash flow $ billion Dividend, buyback + gearing $ billion % % Upstream Downstream Corporate/Other Dividend announced Buyback CFFO CFFI ROACE (RHS) Free cash flow (RHS) Gearing (RHS) $ billion Gearing range  Well-positioned into oil market downturn  Asset sales delivered ahead of oil price decline  Enhanced free cash flow + lower gearing
  • 9. 9Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2014 DELIVERY BALANCING GROWTH AND RETURNS CCS earnings excluding identified items  CCS earnings $22.6 billion; CFFO $45.0 billion  Dividend growth + buyback  Restructuring in Oil Products + North America resources plays  Moderated spending + growth  Improved free cash flow; reduced gearing  Early completion of 14-15 divestment plan  4 operated deep-water start-ups  Repsol LNG integration: >$1 billion CFFO impact  New options in FEED; improved exploration Improve our financial performance Enhance our capital efficiency Deliver new projects
  • 10. 10Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 More rigorous portfolio management Taking hard choices on funnel ~140 performance units add focus  Increased shareholding requirements for management  Bottom line focus  Credible, competitive + affordable plans Resilience Attractiveness FEED FID On-stream Identify&Assess Select Define Execute Operate ASPIRED PORTFOLIO ATTRACTIVENESS Growth & returns Opportunity scale RESILIENCE Risk, performance & uncertainty STRATEGIC INTENT RESULTS & PAY- OUT Grow Exit Fix/maintain CHANGING EMPHASIS IN 2014+ SHARPER PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT + APPRAISAL
  • 11. 11Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PRIORITIES 2015+  Choices on new options  Supply chain management  Managing affordability + financial flexibility  Preserving our competitive growth pipeline in downturn  Continued ramp-up of 2014 start-ups  2015 transition year into 2016/17+ growth  Returns and cash flow  Competitive returns for shareholders  Restructuring underperforming businesses  Cost reduction programmes Competitive financial performance Capital efficiency Project delivery
  • 12. 12Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING  Optimise footprint  Integrated value capture  Selective investment in growth markets  Capital discipline and project delivery  Strong ROACE, 27% 2014  Free cash flow reduction:  Investment-heavy phase  Cost and profitability pressures  Late-life asset challenges Resources plays Oil Products Upstream engine Dry gas AcquisitionsLRS  NA portfolio reduction completed  2015+ reduction of International portfolio  Capital ceiling + cost reduction Capital investment in $ billion Asset sales (incl. MLP) $ billion $ billion kboe per day (Shell share) CFFO Production (RHS) Capital investment -30%
  • 13. 13Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE RESTRUCTURING RESOURCES PLAYS PORTFOLIO Production excludes volumes from divestments Production kboe per day Capital investment $ billion E&A On-stream Gas Liquids Rich Colombia Argentina Neuquen Ukraine Oman Sichuan Changbei Arrow CBM Changbei 2 Russia Americas InternationalLiquids Gas Permian Appalachia W. Canada LRS W. Canada gas  2014: North America portfolio restructured ($3.3 billion asset sales / 110 kboe/d)  2015+:  International portfolio reduction + possible write-downs  Potential to further reduce spending Tunisia -30% ` Germany Algeria Turkey
  • 14. 14Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 Cash flow + ROACE COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE DOWNSTREAM ENGINE CCS earnings excluding identified items % Earnings 2013 to 2014 $ billion Operating performance % unplanned downtime Cash flow ROACE (RHS) Refining Chemicals $ billion  Self-help + improved joint venture performance  Launched new cost drive at end 2014  10-12% ROACE + $10 billion p.a. CFFO potential
  • 15. 15Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING: OIL PRODUCTS Equity refinery positions Portfolio change Resilience Attractiveness Selective Growth:  China  LNG for transport  Premium fuels + lubes  Refinery crude flexibility  others Fix:  Motiva  Singapore fuels  Pernis + Rheinland  Malaysia  Moerdijk  others Exit: Italy  Australia  Norway Denmark others  2014 asset sales + MLP: >$4 billion  Ongoing divestments  Efficiency + cost drive  completed Million b/d Refining capacity Europe Asia, Oceania, Africa Americas ~ -20% # of refineries Refineries (RHS)
  • 16. 16Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE PORTFOLIO RESTRUCTURING: UPSTREAM ENGINE * 2018/19 potential, Shell share Upstream engine portfolio Managed decline of legacy positions kboe per day (Shell share)  Restructuring focused on UKCS  Reducing overheads  Divesting assets  Free cash flow improvement  Operating costs and operational performance  Exit tail-end and underperforming assets  2017+ start-up of growth projects Resilience Attractiveness ~95 kboe/d* Selective growth:  Schiehallion  Clair Ph2  Val d’ Agri ph2  Tempa Rossa  Beryl  Corrib Maintain  Norway  NAM  Malaysia  Oman  New Zealand  Philippines Fix Denmark Brunei Gabon onshore Exit / Dilute / Decommissioning: Nelson Anasuria Sean Brent decommissioning others Netherlands Oman Malaysia Norway Brunei UK Abu Dhabi Others 14 kboe/d
  • 17. 17Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 INVESTMENT PRIORITIES + PERFORMANCE 1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, Arctic, heavy oil Engines (Downstream, Upstream engine)  Free cash flow businesses  Maintain competitiveness  Asset integrity + selective growth Growth priority (Integrated Gas, deep water)  Global leadership established  High-grading our rich opportunity set Longer term (resources plays, future opportunities1)  Major potential; managing non-technical risks  Slower pace + capital allocation  Investment choices driven on a global thematic basis  Assets tested for attractiveness + resilience ROACE (%) CFFO in billion $ Downstream engine Upstream engine Integrated gas Deep water Resources plays Future opportunities 2014 (Brent $99/bbl) 2013 (Brent $109/bbl) Bubble size represents year-end capital employed
  • 18. 18Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE, CREDIBLE + AFFORDABLE PLANS MODERATING OUR SPENDING + GROWTH OUTLOOK 2014 acquisitions: Repsol LNG $ billion total capital investment $ billion organic capital investment  Project re-phasing / deferral  Supply chain savings  Dilutions + exits > -15%  2015 organic spending lower than 2014  Retaining options for medium term  Flexibility to reduce further Upstream Downstream / Corporate Acquisitions 2015 potential 2015 plan
  • 19. 19Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
  • 20. 20Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
  • 21. 21Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 Q4 2014 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items; ROACE 12 months rolling Earnings Q4 2013 to Q4 2014 $ billion Q4 2013 Q4 2014 $ billion UPSTREAM 2.5 1.7 DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 0.6 1.6 CORPORATE & MINORITIES (0.1) (0.0) CCS NET EARNINGS 2.9 3.3 CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 0.46 0.52 CASH FROM OPERATIONS 6.0 9.6 ROACE (%) 8.9 10.2 SHARE BUYBACKS 1.0 1.0 DIVIDENDS 2.8 3.0 DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE 0.45 0.47 Environment Choice
  • 22. 22Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 Q4 2014 PERFORMANCE Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items Upstream earnings + cash flow $ billion Oil and gas production million boe/d Downstream earnings + cash flow $ billion Availability and sales volumes % million tonnes per annum Upstream International Upstream Americas Cash flow from operations (RHS) sales volumes Refinery availability Chemicals availability Oil products (million bbls/d) (RHS) Chemicals (million tonnes) (RHS)Oil Products Chemicals CFFO (RHS) Gas Oil LNG Sales volumes (RHS) $ billion $ billion
  • 23. 23Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PRELIMINARY RESULTS SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION 1 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and price impacts 2 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders 2014 Reserves performance  2014 RRR 26%  2012-14 RRR 67%  Reserves life at end 2014 ~11.2 years 2012-14 Reserves average performance  Organic1 additions ~1.0 billion boe  Production ~1.2 billion boe  Organic reserves replacement 85% Reserves Replacement SEC proved reserves Major reserves additions 2012-14 Reserves additions 2012-14 2014 Organic 85% 47% Organic incl. price effects 76% 50% SEC proved reserves2 67% 26% (billion boe) 2012 2013 2014 Organic reserves additions 1.0 1.5 0.5 Production 1.2 1.2 1.2 SEC proved reserves2 13.6 13.9 13.1
  • 24. 24Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 OIL + GAS RESOURCES FUNNEL Converting resources to production… Billion boe Baronia EOR / Tukau Timur Bonga Main ph3 Coulomb ph2 Longer-term upside 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 On-stream Execute (under construction) Select/Define Production Bonga North West Cardamom Gumusut-Kakap Mars B Petai Sabah gas KBB  Asset sales + capital ceiling  Fewer FIDs in 2014  Maintaining attractive project flow Appomattox Browse resources plays Val d’Agri ph2 Vito others
  • 25. 25Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION EXECUTING A CONSISTENT AND SUCCESSFUL EXPLORATION STRATEGY ARCTIC Long-term potential for industry FRONTIER Build-up of acreage in under-explored basins HEARTLANDS New plays in Shell producing basins NEAR-FIELD High-value add-ons Prospect size (million boe) Time to development (years) 15+ 10+ 3+ <3 5-50 50-250 >250 >500 Spend includes acquisitions  Low-cost access to new barrels: balancing exploration risk and returns 2015 spend Frontier / Arctic NFE Heartlands / Libra
  • 26. 26Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 EXPLORATION: 2014 PERFORMANCE Malaysia heartlands  NFE success, 3 heartland discoveries, 1 successful appraisal  ~300 mmboe for Shell in 2014 Gabon deep-water frontier  Sub-salt deep-water gas discovery  Shell 75%, operator Frontier Near-field Frontier basin  Improved delivery in 2014  10 frontier + heartlands successes  41 near-field finds Australia heartlands  2014: Lympstone discovery  NFE success 2014 drilling success Heartlands GOM deep-water heartlands  2014: Rydberg, Kaikias, Power Nap + Gettysburg discoveries  >1300 mmboe for Shell 2009+ Brazil - Libra NW1 successful appraisal C-1 well drilling Shell 20%
  • 27. 27Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2015 OUTLOOK Macro sensitivity @ $70-110/bbl Brent 2014 asset sales + license expiries (2015 vs. 2014 impact) -100 kboe/d; -0.3 mtpa LNG ~-75 kbpd refining capacity; -145 kbpd marketing ~-$1 billion divestment tax charge impacting CFFO Maintenance downtime / other (2015 vs. 2014 impact) -60 kboe/d (Pearl T1, AOSP, GOM, others) Reduced Chemicals availability (80% in 2015 vs. 85% in 2014) Ramp-up of 2014 + 2015 start-ups Macro $10/bbl Brent +/- ~$3.3 billion CFFO/earnings per annum Q1-Q1 outlook:  Maintenance -90 kboe/d (Pearl + Auger)  Divestment, license expiry, Majnoon cost recovery: ~ -200 kboe/d  Moerdijk chemicals downtime Pearl GTL, Qatar
  • 28. 28Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 CAPITAL EFFICIENCY FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK AND PRIORITIES Priorities for cash 1. Debt service 2. Dividends: growth policy 3. Capital investment: disciplined through-cycle growth 4. Return surplus cash: buybacks Cash performance Investment Balance sheet CFFO Pay-out Cash dividend Buyback Gearing CFFI $ billion % $ billion $ billion $ billion Net debt  Balancing cash in / cash out across cycle  Maintaining strong balance sheet
  • 29. 29Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 Short term Medium term Strategic long term CONSISTENT DELIVERY OF COST REDUCTION PROGRAMMES MULTI-BILLION $ OPPORTUNITY IN SHELL + SUPPLY CHAIN North America resources plays $ million 2014 savings (opex + capex) Supply chain Drilling, projects and operating costs excludes portfolio effects Contract renegotiations Design to cost/Design to value Use of EFAs/location choice Price Design Demand >15% savings Supply chain  Low-cost countries + global suppliers  Standardisation Overheads  Right-sizing with asset sales  Offshoring + efficiency drive  Multi-billion dollar reduction in supply chain  Operating cost reduction 2014-15
  • 30. 30Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2014 Woodside 9.5% Wheatstone LNG Australia downstream Italy downstream US midstream MLP NA non-core LRS Pinedale + Haynesville dry gas BC-10 dilution ADCO license expiry Nigeria onshore 315 kboe/d oil + gas ~120,000 b/d refining capacity 240,000 b/d marketing 0.6 mtpa LNG CAPITAL EFFICIENCY EARLY DELIVERY OF 2014-15 $15 BILLION DIVESTMENT PLAN Divestment/exitAsset sales add focus $ billion Asset sales + MLP proceeds  $5-6 billion p.a. ongoing divestment  2015 divestments likely lower pace Early delivery of 2014-15 target Australia upstream refocus Monetise non-core Oil Products Resources plays reduction ongoing footprint reduction
  • 31. 31Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PORTFOLIO CHOICES DRIVING PROFITABILITY Upstream CFFO* $ billion Production million boe per day  Enhancing profitability +25% * CFFO excludes working capital + oil & gas price effects Underlying +2%
  • 32. 32Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015  Growth priorities unchanged  Driving competitive cash flow CAPITAL EFFICIENCY INVESTMENT PRIORITIES 1 Resources plays, Majnoon, infill drilling Organic capital investmentInvestment themes Growth priorities: 40% Longer term: 25% Engines: 35% 2015 organic capital investment 50% 10% 40% Pre-FID large project options Base Short-cycle projects1 Post-FID large projects Conventional exploration 2015 organic capital investment CFFO impact of 2015 investment ’15-’16 ’17-’18 ‘19+
  • 33. 33Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 CASH PERFORMANCE + PAY-OUT Cash flow $ billion Cash flow from operations Cash flow from investments1  2014 dividend and buyback $15 billion  2015 dividend ~$12 billion  Buybacks in 2015 subject to oil prices  Gearing likely to increase in 2015 $ billion Gearing and pay-out Dividend track record $ billion Dividends announced 2012-2014 2014 Dividend Free cash flow % Gearing (RHS)Buybacks Pay-out Dividend is dividend announced 1 Includes MLP proceeds
  • 34. 34Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 BEN VAN BEURDEN CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
  • 35. 35Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC PROJECT DELIVERY
  • 36. 36Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015  BC-10 ph3  Bonga Main ph3  Corrib  Erha North ph2  Forcados Yokri  Gbaran-Ubie ph2  Gorgon LNG  ML South  NA LRS/tight gas  Stones 2017-192015-16 PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Production kboe per day (Shell share) million tonnes per annum  >700 kboe/d + 7.5 mtpa LNG under construction  High-margin production  Growth uptick 2017+ 2015-16 start-ups2014 start-ups LNG volume (RHS)2017-19 start-ups  Mars B   Bonga NW   Cardamom   Baronia /Tukau Timur  Carmon Creek  Clair ph2  Coulomb  Kashagan ph1  Malikai  MMLS LNG (Elba)  Prelude FLNG  Rabab Harweel  Schiehallion  Southern Swamp  Tempa Rossa  TNP loopline  Gumusut-Kakap   Petai   Sabah gas KBB  2014 Shell-operated  started up
  • 37. 37Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PROJECT DELIVERY MANAGING OUR OPPORTUNITY SET 2015-16 FID options 17 potential FIDs 2015-16  >$15 billion spending mitigation planned 2015-17:  Re-phasing / deferral  Supply chain  Dilutions + exits Downstream Upstream Options deferred / cancelled FID choices 2015-16 FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES Carmon Creek ph3+4 postponed Majnoon full field RESOURCES PLAYS World-wide restructuring Canada, Lower 48, Argentina, other DEEP WATER Deferral of FIDs Slower pace in Nigeria Appomattox Vito Bonga South West Libra pilot FPSO vessel INTEGRATED GAS Asia Pacific slow-down Arrow LNG greenfield cancelled Elba LNG (site) LNG Canada T1+2 Browse LNG UPSTREAM ENGINE Selected base projects Val d’Agri ph2 Bokor DOWNSTREAM ENGINE Al Karaana chemicals cancelled Selected base projects Pennsylvania chem. Geismar alpha olefins China chemicals Debottleneck projects > 700 kboe/d ~12 mtpa LNG 2.7 mtpa chemicals
  • 38. 38Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE: BALANCING GROWTH AND RETURNS Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items Cash flow from operations $ billion Free cash flow $ billion ROACE – underlying % Total shareholder return (2012-2014) % Shell Peer group Shell competitors
  • 39. 39Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PRIORITIES 2015+  Choices on new options  Supply chain management  Managing affordability + financial flexibility  Preserving our competitive growth pipeline in downturn  Continued ramp-up of 2014 start-ups  2015 transition year into 2016/17+ growth  Returns and cash flow  Competitive returns for shareholders  Restructuring underperforming businesses  Cost reduction programmes Competitive financial performance Capital efficiency Project delivery
  • 40. 40Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 QUESTIONS & ANSWERS FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS
  • 41. 41Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 KEY UPSTREAM PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Deep water Integrated gas Resources plays Future opportunities Upstream engine
  • 42. 42Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 PRE-FID OPTIONS POTENTIAL 2015-2016 FEEDS AND FIDS Deep water Integrated gas Resources plays Future opportunities Downstream engine Upstream engine
  • 43. 43Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2014 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION: EXAMPLES Frontier: Gabon deep water Heartland: GOM NFE: Oman, Lekhwair campaign Noble Globetrotter 2 Exploration drilling in North Oman  Leopard sub-salt gas discovery  Multi-TCF potential  New gas play  Shell 75%  4 deep-water oil discoveries  Rydberg oil discovery in Norphlet  ~110 million boe (Shell 57%)  Kaikias oil discovery  ~35 million boe (Shell 100%)  Assessing new Power Nap + Gettysburg finds  11 wells drilled in 2014  ~150 million barrels oil (100%)  Further potential Greater Lekhwair area  Shell 34% Mars Kaikias Nakika Vito Appomattox Mars B Rydberg Ram Powell Ursa On-stream FEED 2014 exploration success Brutus 100 km Power Nap Gettysburg
  • 44. 44Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 DELIVER NEW PROJECTS PROJECT MANAGEMENT Upstream project status Construction time elapsed %  Oversight and accountability  Track record Construction time elapsed % photo Corrib gas: national grid into Bellanaboy facility
  • 45. 45Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 2014 $ billion CCS earnings CFFO 2014 organic capital investment Capital employed ROACE Engines DOWNSTREAM ENGINE 6 11 6 49 11% UPSTREAM ENGINE 5 8 7 18 27% GrowthPriorities INTEGRATED GAS 10 13 6 58 18% DEEP WATER 3 6 7 24 12% LongerTerm RESOURCES PLAYS (2) 0 4 20 (9)% FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES1 1 5 5 30 2% DECONSTRUCTING OUR PORTFOLIO Mature + drives free cash flow Profitable + growing Returns impacted by growth spend CCS earnings excluding identified items; ROACE based on CCS earnings excluding identified items 1 Iraq, Nigeria onshore (SPDC), Kazakhstan, Arctic, heavy oil
  • 46. 46Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 CONVENTIONAL EXPLORATION + APPRAISAL: KEY WELLS 2015-2016 ‘15 ‘16 Frontier Heartlands  2015 drilling in 14 basins Albania US GOM Brunei Nigeria Australia Gabon Turkey China Malaysia Namibia Canada Denmark Egypt Brazil: Libra Alaska New Zealand
  • 47. 47Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 29 January, 2015 FOURTH QUARTER 2014 RESULTS BALANCING GROWTH & RETURNS 29 JANUARY 2015 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC