The outlook for Natural Gas

1. Natural Gas Outlook
Dec. 2013
Mario Tandioy
MSc. Petroleum Eng.
MBA Oil & Gas

2. Outline
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Why Natural Gas?
World Energy Demand
Natural Gas: Demand versus Supply
Global Gas Trade Markets
EU Energy Security
— Unconventional Natural Gas Resources
Conclusions
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3. Why Natural Gas?
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Because of its many properties: relatively cleanburning, abundant, safe, reliable and efficient.
It is a vital component of the world's energy mix
used for power generation, chemical industry
feedstock, transportation and residential usage.
Large capital investments in infrastructure are
continuously made on both demand and supply
sides to enable increased natural gas consumption.
“Golden age of gas”
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4. World Energy Consumption
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Total 1981: 6,429 Mtoe
Total 2011: 11,853 Mtoe
2030: expected increase in
total energy demand of
62%
Source: eia.gov
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5. Gas Demand Growth
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2013
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6. Distribution of proved gas
reserves (percentage)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013
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7. Gas Trade Markets
$9.58
$16.5
$3.62
$13.4
$14.1
$16.32
Trade flows worldwide (billion cubic metres)
Prices as at 7th June 2012 (USD/mmBtu)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013
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8. Natural Gas Spot Prices
Decoupling of oil
and gas prices
6.2x
Note: NBP = National Balancing Point (United Kingdom), representative of European gas prices
Geographical price differences in natural gas have
increased following North America shale gas revolution.
Source: IEA 2013
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9. EU Energy Security
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2011 total natural gas imports 11.0 TCF
— Liquefied Natural Gas 19% (14.5% in 2003)
— Pipeline 81%
Data sources: Economides and Wood 2009, Ratner et al. 2013
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10. Unconventional Natural Gas
Resources in Europe
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Source: IEA 2012
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11. Shale Gas Concerns
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Environmental. Fracking will generate much more
opposition in Europe than it has in the US as it
involves turning green fields into industrial sites.
Social. In the long term, with the rapid expansion
of shale gas production, operations may occur in or
near populated areas.
Fiscal terms. State ownership of oil and gas rights
can also reduce the incentives for communities to
accept development of local unconventional gas
resources.
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12. Conclusions
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Natural gas is clearly destined to play a key role in
future global energy developments for both energy
efficiency and lower emissions reasons.
Evolution towards a world gas market is expected,
or at least tighter linkages between today’s
regional markets.
Unconventional gas reserves are key to match
global demand in the near future.
Physical delivery of gas requires mainly longdistance supply chains (effects of political risks).
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