1. Oilwatch Monthly - September 2009
16 September 2009 - (next update: 19 October 2009)
Your coverage on the latest worldwide oil market developments
ASPO Netherlands
Rembrandt Koppelaar +31 (0)6 44082419
Oil market fundamentals and 2009 oil price movements contact@peakoil.nl
Definitions www.peakoil.nl
This year we have so far seen two distinct price bands on the oil market.
The first a price band between 40 and 50 dollars per barrel from January Crude Oil, petroleum found in liquid and semi
to April, which in May transitioned into the second price band between liquid form including deepsea oil and Powered by www.theoildrum.com
60 and 72 dollars per barrel. Looking back, the latest data from the Joint lease condensates.
Oil Data Initiative shows that this price shift coincided with a turnaround
in declining demand in OECD countries. Every month from January to Liquids, all forms of liquid fuels including
May OECD demand declined from a total of 45.31 million b/d in January to conventional, heavy, and extra heavy oil,
42.19 million b/d in May. This changed when from May to June 2009 OECD oil shale, oil sands, natural gas liquids, lease
consumption increased by 658,000 b/d to 42.85 million b/d. Oil production condensates, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids,
from May to June increased by only 190,000 b/d from 84.36 to 84.55 million and biofuels. Newsletter Index
b/d.
One Barrel of oil is equivalent to 159 litres
Unfortunately the latest data point for oil demand is June, but more recent Page 2 - 4: World Oil Production
data for oil stocks, production and price movements are available. World Page 5: OPEC Oil Production
oil production from June to July increased by 730,000 b/d and declined Page 6: Non-OPEC Oil Production
Chart 1: Oil Price Weighed Average of Blends
by 190,000 from July to August, to respectively production levels of 85.28
Page 7: OPEC Oil Consumption
and 84.88 million b/d. OECD crude oil stocks declined from April to May 140
from 1026 to 996 million barrels, to subsequently increase to 1011 million Page 8 - 12: OECD Oil Consumption
barrels in June and remain stable around that level in July. And prices went Dollars per Barrel
120 Page 13: Asia Oil Consumption
from 54.9 dollars per barrel in May to 67.7 in June, 64.6 in July, 71.4 dollars Euros per Barrel
Page 14 - 16: OECD Crude Oil Stocks
per barrel in August, and until 15 September averaged around 67 dollars
per barrel. 100 Page 17 - 19: Oil Imports & exports
Page 20: OPEC Spare Capacity
Summarizing oil prices have remained stable as well as OECD stocks, 80 Page 21 - 23: Middle East Production Charts
alongside a small increase in oil production since June. These movements
Page 24: Europe Production Charts
would imply a continued increase in oil consumption in OECD countries, 60
albeit probably a small increase given that the world increase in production Page 25 - 27: Africa Production Charts
from June to August has only been 330,000 b/d. 40 Page 28: Asia Production Charts
Page 29: Former USSR Production Charts
Rembrandt Koppelaar 20 Page 30 - 31: North America Production Charts
President ASPO Netherlands Page 32: South America Production Charts
0
Page 33: Oceania Production Charts
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Energy Information Admistration

2. ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production
World liquid fuels production World crude oil production World natural gas liquids production
In August 2009 world production of all liquid fuels declined by Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids production from natural gas fields declined
400,000 barrels per day from July according to the latest fgures show that crude oil production including lease condensates by 21,000 b/d from May to June 2009 according to the latest
of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world increased by 444,000 b/d from May to June 2009. Resulting International Petroleum Monthly of the Energy Information
liquid fuels production of 84.88 million b/d. Liquids production in total production of crude oil including lease condensates of Administration (EIA). Resulting in a total NGL production of 8.06
for July 2009 was revised upward in the IEA Oil Market Report of 71.78 million b/d. Crude oil production in the EIA International million b/d.
August from 85.15 to 85.28 million b/d. Average global liquid Petroleum Monthly for May 2009 was revised downward from
fuels production in 2009 up to August was 84.6 million b/d versus 71.8 to 71.33 million b/d. The all time high production record of
86.6 and 85.32 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. crude oil stands at 74.74 million b/d reached in July 2008.
Chart 2: Liquids Production January 2004 - August 2009 Chart 3: Crude Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 4: Liquids Production January 2004 - June 2009
90 76 8.2
8.0
75
88
7.8
74
Million barrels per day
86 7.6
73 7.4
84
72 7.2
82 7.0
71
6.8
Liquids (IEA)
80
70 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
Liquids (EIA) 6.6
78 69 6.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 2

3. World Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
World conventional crude versus liquids production ratio World unconventional liquid fuels production World energy content from liquid fuels production
Approximately 85% of world liquid fuels production in 2008 came In 2008 the biggest part of unconventional liquid fuels production In production statistics all liquid fuels are aggregated as total ‘oil’
from conventional crude oil including lease condensates. The came from Natural Gas Liquids at 11% or 7.94 million b/d. production while containing different amounts of energy per
remaining share of 15% was produced by unconventional sources Secondly, extra heavy crude and bitumen at 3.4% or 2.68 million barrel produced. For example, a barrel of crude oil contains around
including Biofuels, Extra Heavy Oil, Tar Sands, Polar Oil and Natural b/d of which 1.27 million b/d from Canadian oil sands and 1.41 5.8 million British Thermal Units while a similar barrel of natural
Gas Liquids. In absolute amounts unconventional production has million b/d from other sources. Thirdly, Biofuels at 1.8% or 1.45 gas liquids contains 4.2 million BTU. Conversion to BTU’s shows
increased steadily, from 4 million b/d at the end of the 1970s, to million b/d. A and finally Polar Oil at a production rate of 840,000 that actual available energy worldwide in June 2009 was 3.3%
approximately 12.9 mb/d in 2008, excluding lease condensates. b/d in 2008 or 1.1% of total liquids supply. lower than liquids statistics counted in barrels would suggest.
Chart 5: World Crude and Liquids production 1938 - 2008 Chart 6: Unconventional Oil Production 1938 - 2008 Chart 7: World Production in BTU January 2003 - August 2009
100 14 550
Liquids Biofuels Biofuels
90 X-Heavy crude (excl. Canada) Natural Gas Liquids
Conventional crude 525
12 Canadian Oil Sands Crude Oil
80 Polar Oil 12m rolling average
Natural Gas Liquids 500
70 10
Million barrels per day
Trillion BTU per day
475
60
8
50 450
6
40
425
30 4
400
20
2 375
10
0 0 350
1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: EIA, EIA & CAPP Source: International Energy Agency
Page 3

4. ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production
World biofuels production IEA liquid fuels versus liquids excluding biofuels production EIA liquids versus IEA liquids excluding biofuels production
Total world biofuel in August 2009 is estimated to be 1.58 million Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in August 2009 is Liquid fuels production figures published by the Energy
b/d based on statistics compiled from the Energy Information estimated to be 83.33 million b/d, a decline of 400,000 b/d from Information Administration in their International Petroleum
Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Brazilian July production according to the latest figures of the International Monthly exclude biofuels. These figures are comparable to total
ministry of Energy. With an estimated 710,000 b/d from the Energy Agency. liquids statistics published by the International Energy Agency
United States, 510,000 b/d from Brazil and 360,000 b/d from other when subtracting our estimate for world biofuels production.
countries.
Chart 8: World Biofuels Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 9: IEA Liquids comparison January 2004 - August 2009 Chart 10: EIA & EIA Liquids Comparison Jan. 2004 - August 2009
1.8 90 88
1.6 87
88
86
1.4
86 85
Million barrels per day
1.2
84
1.0 84
83
0.8 82
82
0.6
80 81
0.4
80 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
78
0.2 Biofuels (IEA) Liquids (IEA) Liquids (EIA)
79
0.0 76 78
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: IEA, EIA, Brazilian Ministry of Energy Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 4

5. OPEC Oil Production ASPO Netherlands
OPEC liquid fuels production OPEC crude oil production OPEC natural gas liquids production
Total liquid fuels production in OPEC countries increased by 50,000 Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC natural gas liquids remained stable from July to August
b/d from July to August to a level of 34.16 million b/d. Average OPEC cartel increased by 50,000 b/d to a level of 28.80 million at a level of 5.36 million b/d. Average OPEC natural gas liquids
liquid fuels production in 2009 up to August was 33.59 million b/d, from July to August 2009, according to the latest available production in 2009 up to August was 5.01 million b/d, versus 4.66
b/d, versus 36.09 and 35.02 million b/d in respectively 2008 and estimate of the IEA. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to and 4.55 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
2007. All time high production of OPEC liquid fuels stands at 36.58 August was 28.58 million b/d, versus 31.43 and 30.37 million b/d
million b/d reached in July 2008. in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 11: OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 12: OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 13: OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - August 2009
38 33 6.0
37 32
5.5
36
31
5.0
Million barrels per day
35
30
34 4.5
29
33 4.0
28
32
3.5
27
31
Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA) Natural Gas Liquids (IEA)
3.0
30 Liquids (EIA) 26 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
29 25 2.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 5

6. ASPO Netherlands Non-OPEC Oil Production
Non-OPEC liquid fuels production Non-OPEC crude oil production Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production
Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in Non-OPEC Total Non-OPEC crude oil production excluding lease condensates Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production decreased by 117,000
countries decreased by 450,000 b/d from July to August 2009. increased by 162,000 b/d to a level of 41.24 million b/d, from May from May to June to a level of 3.30 million b/d. Average Non-
Resulting in a production level of 49.17 million b/d according to to June 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the EIA. OPEC natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to August was
the International Energy Agency. Average liquid fuels production Crude oil production in the EIA International Petroleum Monthly 3.41 million b/d, versus 3.65 and 3.79 million b/d in respectively
in 2009 up to August was 49.51 million b/d, versus 49.32 and 49.34 for May 2009 was revised downward from 41.5 to 41.08 million 2008 and 2007.
million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to June was 41.51
million b/d, versus 41.32 and 41.80 million b/d in respectively
2008 and 2007.
Chart 14: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009 Chart 15: Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009 Chart 16: Non-OPEC NGL Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009
51 43 4.5
43
50
4.0
42
49
Million barrels per day
42
3.5
48
41
47
3.0
41
46
40
Liquids (IEA)
2.5
45 Crude oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
Liquids (EIA) 40
44 39 2.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 6

7. OPEC Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
OPEC oil consumption Iran oil consumption Saudi Arabia oil consumption
Oil consumption in all the OPEC oil producers combined increased Oil consumption in Iran increased by 10,000 b/d from May to June Oil consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by 193,000 b/d from
by 235,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 6.25 million b/d. to a level of 1.50 million b/d. Average Iranian oil consumption in May to June to a level of 2.2 million b/d. Average Saudi Arabian oil
Average OPEC oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 5.74 2009 up to June was 1.53 million b/d, versus 1.64 and 1.52 million consumption in 2009 up to June was 1.70 million b/d, versus 1.65
million b/d, versus 5.76 and 5.30 million b/d in respectively 2008 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
and 2007.
Chart 17: OPEC Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 18: Iran Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 19: Saudi Arabia Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
7 2.4 2.4
2.2 2.2
6
2.0 2.0
Million barrels per day
5
1.8 1.8
4 1.6 1.6
1.4 1.4
3
1.2 1.2
2
1.0 1.0
1 0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
0
Iran oil consumption (JODI) Saudi Arabia oil consumption (JODI)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.4 0.4
Iraq Venezuela 12m rolling average 12m rolling average
UAE Saudi Arabia 0.2 0.2
Qatar Nigeria
Libya Kuwait
Iran Ecuador 0.0 0.0
Angola Algeria
12m rolling average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 7

8. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption
OECD oil consumption North America oil consumption European Union oil consumption
Oil consumption in OECD countries increased by 659,000 b/d Oil consumption in North America increased by 274,000 b/d to Oil consumption in the European Union decreased by 122,000
from May to June to a level of 42.85 million b/d. Average OECD a level of 22.39 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil b/d from May to June to a level of 12.96 million b/d. Average
oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 43.87 million b/d, versus consumption in North America in 2009 up to June was 22.44 consumption in the European Union in 2009 up to June was 13.57
46.10 and 47.68 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. million b/d, versus 23.50 and 24.72 million b/d in respectively million b/d, versus 14.25 and 14.32 million b/d in respectively
2008 and 2007. 2008 and 2007.
Chart 20: OECD Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 21: North America Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 22: EU-27 Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
52.0 26.6 15.6
51.0
26.0 15.2
50.0
25.4
49.0 14.8
48.0 24.8
14.4
Million barrels per day
47.0 24.2
14.0
46.0
23.6
45.0 13.6
23.0
44.0
13.2
43.0 22.4
42.0 12.8
21.8
41.0 12.4
OECD oil consumption (JODI) 21.2 North America oil consumption (JODI) EU-27 oil consumption (JODI)
40.0
12m rolling average 12m rolling average 12.0 12m rolling average
20.6
39.0
38.0 20.0 11.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 8

9. OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
United States oil consumption Mexico oil consumption Canada oil consumption
Oil consumption in the US increased by 166,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in Mexico increased by 10,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in Canada increased by 98,000 b/d from Mau
June to a level of 18.26 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in 1.95 million b/d. Average oil consumption in Mexico in 2009 up tp June to a level of 2.02 million b/d. Average consumption in
the US in 2009 up to June was 18.61 million b/d, versus 19.50 and to June was 1.87 million b/d, versus 1.95 and 1.94 million b/d in Canada in 2009 up to June was 1.96 million b/d, versus 2.06 and
20.70 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. respectively 2008 and 2007. 2.08 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 23: US Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 24: Mexico Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 25: Canada Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
22 2.3 2.3
21 2.2
2.2
2.1
20 2.1
Million barrels per day
2.0
19 2.0
1.9
18 1.9
1.8
17 1.8
1.7
US oil consumption (JODI) Mexico oil consumption (JODI) Canada oil consumption (JODI)
16 1.7
12m rolling average 1.6 12m rolling average 12m rolling average
15 1.5 1.6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 9

10. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption
France oil consumption Germany oil consumption Italy oil consumption
Oil consumption in France remained stable from May to June at Oil consumption in Germany decreased by 100,000 b/d to a level Oil consumption in Italy increased by 58,000 b/d from May to June
1.68 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in France in 2009 up of 2.31 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in to a level of 1.54 million b/d. Average consumption in Italy in 2009
to June was 1.85 million b/d, versus 1.94 and 1.94 million b/d in Germany in 2009 up to June was 2.46 million b/d, versus 2.56 and up to June was 1.51 million b/d, versus 1.60 and 1.67 million b/d
respectively 2008 and 2007. 2.47 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 26: France Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 27: Germany Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 28: Italy Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
2.3 3.0 2.2
2.9 2.1
2.2
2.8 2.0
2.7 1.9
2.1
Million barrels per day
2.6 1.8
2.0 2.5 1.7
2.4 1.6
1.9 2.3 1.5
2.2 1.4
1.8
2.1 1.3
France oil consumption (JODI) Germany oil consumption (JODI) Italy oil consumption (JODI)
2.0 1.2
1.7
12m rolling average 12m rolling average 12m rolling average
1.9 1.1
1.6 1.8 1.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 10

11. OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
Spain oil consumption United Kingdom oil consumption Poland oil consumption
Oil consumption in Spain increased by 81,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in the United Kingdom remained stable around Oil consumption in Poland increased by 18,000 b/d from May to
June to a level of 1.46 million b/d. Average oil consumption in 1.51 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in the June to a level of 530,000 b/d. Average consumption in Poland in
Spain in 2009 up to June was 1.48 million b/d, versus 1.54 and 1.59 United Kingdom in 2009 up to June was 1.58 million b/d, versus 2009 up to June was 489,000 b/d, versus 527,000 and 507,000 b/d
million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 1.61 and 1.67 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 29: Spain Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 30: UK Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 31: Poland Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
1.8 2.2 0.8
2.1
0.7
1.7 2.0
1.9 0.6
Million barrels per day
1.6 1.8
0.5
1.7
1.5 1.6 0.4
1.5
0.3
1.4 1.4
1.3 0.2
Spain oil consumption (JODI) UK oil consumption (JODI) Poland oil consumption (JODI)
1.3 1.2
12m rolling average 12m rolling average 0.1 12m rolling average
1.1
1.2 1.0 0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 11

12. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption
Netherlands oil consumption Japan oil consumption South Korea oil consumption
Oil consumption in the Netherlands decreased by 155,000 b/d Oil consumption in Japan increased by 301,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in South Korea decreased by 37,000 b/d to a level
from May to June to a level of 687,000 million b/d. Average oil 4.18 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil consumption of 2.15 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption
consumption in the Netherlands in 2009 up to June was 868,000 in Japan in 2009 up to June was 4.45 million b/d, versus 4.92 and in South Korea in 2009 up to June was 2.29 million b/d, versus 2.21
b/d, versus 945,000 and 920,0000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 5.13 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 2.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
2007.
Chart 32: Netherlands Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 33: Japan Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 34: South Korea Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
1.2 7.0 3.0
6.5 2.8
1.1
6.0 2.6
Million barrels per day
1.0
5.5 2.4
0.9 5.0 2.2
4.5 2.0
0.8
4.0 1.8
Netherlands oil consumption (JODI) Japan oil consumption (JODI) South Korea oil consumption (JODI)
0.7
12m rolling average 3.5 12m rolling average 1.6 12m rolling average
0.6 3.0 1.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 12

13. Asia Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands
China oil consumption India oil consumption Taiwan oil consumption
Oil consumption in China increased by 654,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in India increased by 144,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in Taiwan increased by 90,000 b/d to a level of
June to a level of 8.19 million b/d. Average oil consumption in 2.96 million b/d. Average oil consumption in India in 2009 up to 1.05 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption in
China in 2009 up to June was 7.18 million b/d, versus 6.92 and June was 2.92 million b/d, versus 2.60 and 2.43 million b/d in Taiwan in 2009 up to June was 961,000 b/d, versus 978,000 and
7.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. respectively 2008 and 2007. 958,000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 35: China Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 36: India Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 37: Taiwan Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
10.0 3.4 1.4
9.5 3.2 1.3
9.0 3.0
1.2
8.5
2.8
1.1
Million barrels per day
8.0
2.6
7.5 1.0
2.4
7.0 0.9
2.2
6.5 0.8
2.0
6.0
0.7
1.8
5.5
China oil consumption (JODI) India oil consumption (JODI) 0.6 Taiwan oil consumption (JODI)
5.0 1.6
12m rolling average 12m rolling average 0.5 12m rolling average
4.5 1.4
4.0 1.2 0.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
Page 13

14. ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks
OECD crude oil stocks OECD product stocks Europe crude oil stocks
Industrial inventories of crude oil in the OECD in July 2009 Industrial product stocks in the OECD in July 2009 increased to Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Europe in July 2009
increased to a level of 1012 million from 1011 million barrels in 1470 million from 1459 million barrels in June according to the decreased to 338 million from 343 million barrels in June
June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD crude latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD product stocks are 72 million according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe crude
oil stocks are 54 million barrels higher than the five year average barrels higher than the five year average of 1398 million barrels. In oil stocks are 2 million barrels higher than the five year average of
of 958 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 1467 336 million barrels.
a total stock level of 990 million barrels was tabulated for June million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised
which has been revised upwards to 1011 million barrels in the downwards to 1459 million barrels in the September edition.
September edition.
Chart 38: OECD Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 39: OECD Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 40: Europe Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
1200 1600 425
400
1100 1500
375
Million barrels per day
1000 1400 350
325
900 1300
300
800 1200 275
250
700 1100
OECD crude oil stocks (IEA) OECD product stocks (IEA) Europe crude oil stocks (IEA)
225
600 1000 200
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 14

15. OECD Crude Oil Stocks ASPO Netherlands
Europe product stocks Pacific crude oil stocks Pacific product stocks
Industrial product stocks in OECD Europe in July 2009 remained Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Pacific in July 2009 Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to
stable at 571 million barrels from June according to the latest increased to a level of 178 million from 170 million barrels in June 170 million from 165 million barrels in June according to the latest
IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe product stocks are 21 million according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Pacific crude IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 11 million
barrels higher than the five year average of 550 million barrels. oil stocks are 8 million barrels lower than the five year average of barrels lower than the five year average of 181 million barrels.
170 million barrels.
Chart 41: Europe Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 42: Pacific Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 43: Pacific Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
650 250 250
625
225
225
600
200
575
Million barrels per day
200
175
550
525 150 175
500
125
150
475
100
450
125
Europe product stocks (IEA) Pacific crude oil stocks (IEA) Pacific product stocks (IEA)
75
425
400 50 100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 15

16. ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks
North America crude oil stocks North America product stocks US gasoline stocks
Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD North America in July Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to Gasoline stocks in the United States in August 2009 decreased to
2009 decreased to a level of 497 million from 499 million barrels 730 million from 723 million barrels in June according to the latest 209 million from 214 million barrels in July according to the latest
in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD North IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 32 million EIA Statistics. Current Gasoline stocks are 1 million barrels lower
America crude oil stocks are 44 million barrels lower than the barrels higher than the five year average of 693 million barrels. than the five year average of 208 million barrels.
five year average of 453 million barrels. In the August Oil Market
Report of the IEA a total stock level of 487 million barrels was
tabulated for June which has been revised upwards to 499 million
barrels in the September edition.
Chart 44: North America Crude Oil Stocks Jan. 2004 - May 2009 Chart 45: North America Product Stocks Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 46: United States Gasoline Stocks Jan. 2004 - July 2009
600 800 300
575
275
550 750
525
250
500 700
Million barrels per day
475
225
450 650
425 200
400 600
175
375
350 550
150
325
300 North America crude oil stocks (IEA) 500 North America product stocks (IEA) US gasoline stocks (EIA)
125
275
250 450 100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 16

17. Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands
Mexico oil exports United Kingdom oil exports Norway oil exports
Oil exports from Mexico decreased by 172,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from the United Kingdom decreased by 73,000 b/d Oil exports from Norway increased by 37,000 b/d from 4th qrt.
2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.40 million b/d. Average oil 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 876,000 b/d. Average 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.91 million b/d. Average oil
export from Mexico in 2008 was 1.55 million b/d, versus 1.85 and oil export from the United Kingdom in 2008 was 957,000 b/d, export from Norway in 2008 was 1.67 million b/d, versus 1.97 and
2.04 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. versus 1.02 and 1.00 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 2.17 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Since 2004 the United Kingdom became a net importer of oil. Net
imports were 186,000 b’/d in 1st qrt. 2009.
Chart 47: Mexico oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 48: UK oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 49: Norway oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
4.0 3.0 3.6
2.8 3.4
3.5 2.6 3.2
2.4 3.0
3.0 2.2
2.8
Million barrels per day
2.0
2.6
2.5
1.8
2.4
1.6
2.0 2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
1.5
1.8
1.0
1.6
1.0 0.8
0.6 1.4
Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA)
0.4 1.2
0.5 Liquids Production (IEA)
Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA)
0.2 Liquids imports (IEA) 1.0
0.0 0.0 0.8
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 17

18. ASPO Netherlands Oil Imports & Exports
Denmark oil exports Australia oil exports Japan oil imports
Oil exports from Denmark decreased by 17,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from Australia decreased by 47,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil imports in Japan decreased by 64,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008
2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 167,000 b/d. Average oil export 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 260,000 b/d. Average oil export to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 3.87 million b/d. Average oil import in
from Denmark in 2008 was 184,000 b/d, versus 191,000 and from Australia in 2008 was 270,000 b/d, versus 252,000 b/d and Japan in 2008 was 4.12 million b/d, versus 4.09 and 4.15 million
233,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 217,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Chart 50: Denmark oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 51: Australia oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 52: Japan Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
0.60 1.0 5.0
Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA)
0.55 0.9
Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) 4.8
0.50 Liquids imports (IEA)
0.8 Liquids imports (IEA)
4.6
0.45
0.7
Million barrels per day
0.40 4.4
0.35 0.6
4.2
0.30 0.5
4.0
0.25 0.4
0.20 3.8
0.3
0.15
3.6
0.2
0.10
Liquids (IEA)
0.1 3.4
0.05
0.00 0.0 3.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 18

19. Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands
OECD oil imports United States oil imports OECD Europe oil imports
Oil imports in the group of OECD countries decreased by 1.60 Oil imports in the United States decreased by 661,000 b/d from 4th Oil imports from OECD Europe decreased by 854,000 b/d from 4th
million b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 30.43 qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 10.84 million b/d. Average oil qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 11.98 million b/d. Average
million b/d. Average oil import in OECD countries in 2008 was import in the United States in 2008 was 11.43 million b/d, versus oil import in OECD Europe in 2008 was 12.98 million b/d, versus
32.19 million b/d, versus 32.47 and 32.7 million b/d in respectively 11.55 and 11.77 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 13.05 and 13.18 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
2007 and 2006.
Chart 53: OECD Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 54: US Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 55: OECD Europe Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
34.0 13.0 14.0
33.5
12.5
13.5
33.0
12.0
32.5
Million barrels per day
13.0
11.5
32.0
31.5 11.0 12.5
31.0
10.5
12.0
30.5
10.0
30.0
Liquids (IEA) 11.5
Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
9.5
29.5
29.0 9.0 11.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
Page 19