Influência dos modelos climáticos na saúde humana
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1. O documento descreve um projeto de pesquisa sobre os impactos das mudanças climáticas na saúde humana no Brasil, incluindo a identificação de ondas de calor e secas, a modelagem de taxas de morbidade e mortalidade, e a estimativa de custos sociais e setoriais. 2. A pesquisa usará dados climáticos diários de municípios brasileiros com uma resolução espacial de 20km x 20km para analisar os impactos nas taxas de saúde, consumo de energia, investimentos em sane
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Influência dos modelos climáticos na saúde humana
- 1. 1 1 Instituição: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada Contatos: jose.feres@ipea.gov.br (21) 3515 8558 José Féres / Saúde humana
- 2. 2 Saúde Humana • Identificação de ondas de calor/frio e secas prolongadas •Estimação econométrica de equações epidemiológicas/demanda de energia •Simulação a partir de projeções dos modelos climatológicos •Valoração econômica das perdas setoriais •Construção de indicadores de vulnerabilidade Modelagem •Variação das taxas de morbi-mortalidade segundo grupos demográficos (idade/gênero) e regiões demográficas (unidades da federação) •Custos sociais (perdas de bem-estar) Impactos setoriais •Gastos com controle de endemias •Consumo de energia •Investimentos em saneamento Medidas adaptativas •Focalização das políticas de adaptação nos grupos demográficos/regiões mais vulneráveisRecomendações
- 3. 3 Como vamos trabalhar ? • Recorte geográfico: município • Dados solicitados: precipitação diária, temperaturas diárias (max. e min.), umidade relativa do ar (diária) e umidade do solo. Formato: csv • Nível de resolução horizontal a ser adotado para análise: 20 km x 20 km – Resoluções maiores exigem aproximações para pequenos municípios • Interações com outras equipes setoriais: – basicamente equipe de climatologia
Notas del editor
- Concept of NAMAs introduced in Bali in 2007. Bali Action Plan. This called for enhanced national and international action on mitigation of climate change, including consideration of “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity-building, in a measurable, reportable and verifiable manner”, as well as measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, by all developed country Parties. The significance of this was that it was the first time that developing countries agreed to take on quantified commitments.Copenhagen. Agreed Mitigation actions taken by Non-Annex I Parties will be subject to their domestic measurement, reporting and verification the result of which will be reported through their biennial update reports every two years.Nationally appropriate mitigation actions seeking international support will be recorded in a registry along with relevant technology, finance and capacity building support.These supported nationally appropriate mitigation actions will be subject to international measurement, reporting and verification in accordance with guidelines adopted by the Conference of the Parties.The Cancun AgreementsIn 2010, the Cancun Conference of the Parties (COP16) adopted the Cancun Agreements. These had a number of elements.It agreed a broad framework for MRV:Agreed principle of four-yearly national communications with less detailed biennial update reports every two years.Agreed common reporting format for developed countries GHG inventories (did not previously exist, although there were the IPPC guidelines).Agreed to establish a process of international assessment and review (IAR) for developed countries and international consultation and analysis for developing countries (ICA).Confirmed moves to set up registry for reporting on developing countries’ NAMAs.Agreed to have a common format for reporting of climate finance provided by developed countries.Called on developing countries to report on the climate finance they receive (but no common format proposed).Durban:On MRV:Revised and strengthened 2006 IPPC guidelines on GHG inventories for developed countries.Guidelines adopted that will now be used by countries to develop their first biennial reports and biennial update reports in the next three years.Developed countries must submit their first BR in January 2014. Will include info on GHG emissions, progress in implementing the country’s quantified economy-wide GHG reduction target, projected emissions for 2020 and 2030 and the provision of financial, technological and other support to developing countries.Developing countries must submit their first BUR in December 2014. Will include a national GHG inventory report, information on mitigation actions and their effects (including methodologies, assumptions and descriptions of domestic MRV processes), and information on support needed and received.The modalities to review these reports, through international assessment and review (IAR) and international consultations and analysis (ICA), were also set in Durban.Developed country BRs will be reviewed every 2 years through IAR process – a technical review by experts and a multilateral assessment under the UNFCCC’s Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) involving all parties.Developing country BURs will be reviewed through a process of ICA – a technical analysis by a team of experts in consultation with the Party concerned, and a facilitative sharing of views under the SBI, open to all Parties.IAR and ICA processes to be reviewed no later than 2016 and 2017 respectively, based on first round of reviews.The final text requires that Annex I Parties submit relevant information in a common template. However for non-Annex I countries the text fails to require Parties to report in a template similar to that of Annex I Parties and only “invites” non-Annex I Parties to submit further information on their actions. Furthermore, there is a lack of specificity regarding the information that Parties are invited to provide. The text refers to “underlying assumptions and methodologies” but the additional detail necessary for enhancing understanding of the emissions reductions associated with the actions is lacking. SBSTA tasked with developing general guidelines for developing countries to perform domestic MRV on their pledged mitigation activities.