Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture of Afghanistan

Climate Change Scenarios for
Agriculture of Afghanistan
C L IMAT E C HANGE ADAP T AT IO N P RO J EC T
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, IRRIGATION AND LIVESTOCK
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN
Submitted by
MGTWELL CONSULTING SERVICES

Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture of Afghanistan
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Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture
of Afghanistan
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PROJECT
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION AND LIVESTOCK
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN
May 2017
MgtWell Consulting Services, Kabul

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This publication was produced for the Climate Change Adaptation Project, MAIL, GoIRA by
MgtWell Consulting Services through a project awarded ID no. 00087639 through the
GEF/UNDP Grant No. 00076056 between the period of August 2016 and May 2017.
There is no copyright attached to this publication. It may be reproduced in whole or in part
without prior permission. However, the source must be acknowledged.
May 2017
Contact:
Climate Change Adaptation Project
Amu Building, Ministry of Agriculture,
Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul, Afghanistan.
Agromet/GIS unit of DSMI/ MAIL,
100 Barg Building, Ministry of Agriculture
Irrigation and Livestock, Kabul, Afghanistan.

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Foreword
In Afghanistan, majority of the population are dependent on Agriculture. Improving agriculture
is vital for Afghanistan for self-sustainability. There is a significant potential for agricultural
growth. Although Afghanistan emits least greenhouse gases, it is one of the highly vulnerable
nations on earth due to climate change. By considering the impact of climate change on
agriculture, the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock with the support of GEF and in
partnership with UNDP has taken up several Climate Change Adaptation initiatives. The
project entitled "Developing Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture of Afghanistan" was
initiated in August 2016. MgtWell Consulting Services, Kabul was awarded the assignment.
The following tasks are included in the project: historical data analysis and achieving,
development of a web portal with climate data, and "Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture
of Afghanistan". This report contains the findings of the project related to climate change
scenarios. The scenarios are computed by focusing on seven agro-climatic zones. This is the
first such report published which contain scenarios computed at zonal level, i.e., all the agro-
climatic zones of Afghanistan. The scenarios are developed for two time slices i.e., 2017-36
and 2037-56. The report includes, stakeholder perception on agriculture, historical climate
trends, climate change scenarios, crop water demands and adaptation measures for major
agricultural crops. It concludes with useful recommendations. I am sure the findings are going
to be very useful to farmers and related stakeholders in Afghanistan as well as for the
development of strategies for sustainable agriculture.
This document has evolved from the intensive work undertaken during the last 10 month's
period. The team members consisting of a multi-disciplinary team have used the latest tools
and methods covering all the aspects relevant to the scenarios development process. This
document presents the analysis in a systematic manner with graphs, maps, data and
summaries. The summaries of the adaptation measures for the major crops and
recommendations are very much useful for future action plans to bring into practice. I would
like to thank the team of MgtWell consulting services for the excellent work. I would also like
to thank all the stakeholders who have shared the weather and climate data, participated in the
process and made suggestions. Agrometeorological Unit of the Ministry of Agriculture,
irrigation and Livestock is one of the main stakeholders in the project who have contributed
most of the data for analysis.
I hope this document proves worthy and is frequently referred by all the people relevant to
agriculture, climate change and other related sectors.
Abdul Raheem Daud, Rahimi
Advisor to Minister & Program Director of CCAP/CBARD
Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock

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Table of Contents
Foreword 3
Acronyms and Abbreviations 9
Executive Summary 11
Chapter 1 21
1 Introduction 21
1.1 Background 21
1.2 About climate change adaptation project, Objectives, and Tasks 24
1.3 Agro-climatic zones in Afghanistan 25
1.4 Scope and organization of this report 27
Chapter 2 29
2 Geography, Climate, and Agriculture in Afghanistan 29
2.1 Central Agro-Climatic Zone (CACZ) 30
2.2 Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone 36
2.3 Northern Agro-Climatic Zone 41
2.4 North-Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone 46
2.5 Southern Agro-Climatic Zone 52
2.6 South-Western Agro-Climatic Zone 57
2.7 Western Agro-Climatic Zone 62
Summary 67
Chapter 3 69
3 Stakeholders perception of climate change on agriculture 69
3.1 Primary Stakeholder Perception Analysis 70
3.2 Afghanistan - Secondary Stakeholders Perceptions 79
Summary 80
Chapter 4 83
4 Cultivation Practices of Major Crops and Effect of Climate Change 83
4.1 Wheat 83
4.2 Barley 85
4.3 Maize 87
4.4 Rice 89

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4.5 Grape 92
4.6 Cotton 95
4.7 Melon 97
4.8 Potato 98
4.9 Water Melon 100
4.10 Almond 101
4.11 Apple 104
4.12 Pomegranate 106
4.13 Apricot 108
4.14 Onion 110
4.15 Citrus 111
4.16 Saffron 113
4.17 Olive 115
4.18 Peach 116
4.19 Plum 118
4.20 Walnuts 119
Summary 121
Chapter 5 125
5 Climate Trends: Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature over Afghanistan 125
5.1 Linear Regression Trend Analysis 126
5.2 Assessment of Precipitation trends 126
5.3 Assessment of Temperature trends 144
Summary 150
Chapter 6 151
6 Climate Change Scenarios of Precipitation and Temperature over Afghanistan 151
6.1 Introduction 151
6.2 Dynamic Downscaling Model Climate Change Scenarios 151
6.3 Statistical Downscaling Model Climate Change Scenarios 173
Summary 214
Chapter 7 215
7 Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptation Measures 215
7.1 Estimation of crop water demands through Evapotranspiration (ET) model 215

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Summary 236
7.2 Adaptation Measures 236
Summary 240
Chapter 8 259
8 Summary, Adaptation Measures, and Recommendations 259
8.1 Summary 259
8.2 Adaptation measures 266
8.3 Recommendations 270
Acknowledgements 273
References 275

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Acronyms and Abbreviations
ACF Action Centre La Faim
ACZ Agro-Climatic Zone
AMD Afghanistan Meteorological Department
AMU Agrometeorological Unit
APHRODITE Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration towards
Evaluation of Water Resources
AWS Automatic Weather Station
BOM Bureau of Meteorology
CART Center for Advanced Research and Technology
CCAM Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model
CCAP Climate Change Adaptation Project
CCI Commission for Climatology (World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme)
CCSM4 Community Climate System Model 4
CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability (World Climate Research Programme)
CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
CMMYT Centro Internacional de Mejoramiento de Maíz y Trigo
CNRM Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques
CODEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment
CRU Climate Research Unit
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
CSO Central Statistics Organization
CWD Consecutive Wet Days
CWR Crop Water Requirements
DACAAR Danish Committee for Aid to Afghan Refugees
ETCCDMI Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
GCMs General Circulation Model / Global Climate Model
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GIS Geographical Information System
GoIRA Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

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IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IWR Irrigation Water Requirement
MADERA Mission d' Aide au Development des Economies Rurales en Afghanistan
MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
MPI-M Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
NAPA National Adaptation Programme of Action for Climate Change
NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NEPA National Environmental Protection Agency
NGOs Non-Governmental Organization
NIWR Net Irrigation Water Requirement
NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
RCM Regional Climate Model
RCPs Representative Concentration Pathways
SDII Simple Daily Intensity Index
UC DAVIS The University of California, Davis
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
USGS United States Geological Survey

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Executive Summary
The Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) and the Government of the Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) with the support of GEF/UNDP have launched the "Climate
Change Adaptation Project, Developing Climate Change Scenarios for Agriculture of
Afghanistan." The project is implemented by MgtWell Consulting Services, Kabul, Afghanistan.
The project was started on 3rd August 2016, and its duration is ten months. One of the task of
the project is analyzing the stakeholders perception about the impact of climate change on
agriculture, analysis of historical climate data, preparation of climate change scenarios the two
time slices year 2017-36 and 2037-56, and analyzing the impact of climate change scenarios
on agriculture.
In this document, after explaining the geography, climate and agriculture of each agro-climatic
zone, we explain about stakeholder's perception on agriculture. Next, we explain cultivation
practices of major crops along with the effect of climate change on those crops. Subsequently,
we explain about the analysis of historical weather data and compute the climate change
scenarios. Finally, we explain the impact of scenarios on agriculture and discuss the adaptation
measures.
In this executive summary, we briefly summarize the contributions.
1.Introduction
The main task is the development of climate downscaling for the seven agro-climatic zones,
i.e., covering all the 34 provinces of Afghanistan, in order to generate future climate change
scenarios for agriculture for policy development and further impact analyses on agricultural
sector. For analysis we considered the seven agro-climatic zones of Afghanistan. The
classification of agro-climatic zones was published in the "Beekeeping survey report (2014),
published by Beekeeping and Animal Husbandry Development Project (BAHDP) and
Beekeeping Development Project (BDP), Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
(MAIL). The zones are as follows: Central agro-climatic zone (CACZ), Eastern agro-climatic
zone (EACZ), Northern agro-climatic zone (NACZ), North-East agro-climatic zone (NEACZ),
Southern agro-climatic zone (SACZ), South-West agro-climatic zone (SWACZ), and Western
agro-climatic zone (WACZ).
2. Geography, Land use, Population, Climate Crops:
Geography: The central and north-eastern agro-climatic zones are in the mountainous parts of
Afghanistan. The lowest elevation is at 229 meters it is located in the Amu Darya river basin.
The highest point is located in the North-east agro-climatic zone that is at 6986 meters. The
average elevation is low in the Northern agro-climatic zone, that is at 2225 meters. This place
usually has cold winters and hot summers. Agro-climatic zones with average elevation below
3000 meters are: Western agro-climatic zone (2398 meters), South-western agro-climatic zone
(2486 meters) and Southern agro-climatic zone (2760 meters). The areas with average
elevation above 3000 meters are North-eastern agro-climatic zone (3483 meters), central agro-
climatic zone (3053 meters) and eastern agro-climatic zone (3036 meters). Eastern agro-
climatic zone has a contrast topography, it has low land areas with warmer climate and the
high lands are having cooler climate. The majority of the population living in low lands usually

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experience relatively warmer climate in this zone. The agriculture production due to viable
climate in this zone is suitable for cultivation of diverse crops.
Land usage: Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas, 2012, percentage of arable land is as
follows: Central (9.82%), Eastern (6.8%), Southern (10.6%), South-western (6.2%), Western
(8%), Northern (27.2%) and Northeastern (17%). The highest percentage of arable land is in
Northern zone and lowest percentage of arable land is in the South-western zone.
About population: The southern agro-climatic zone has the highest rural population of 97.5 %.
Central agro-climatic zone has the highest urban population of 56.6%, this is because of the
presence of capital city Kabul in Kabul Province. All the other agro-climatic zones are having
rural population above 74%.
About Climate: As per the climate classification scheme of Köppen-Geiger system, Afghanistan
broadly represents the following types of climates. The parts of central agro-climatic zone have
mid-latitude steppe climate, desert climate and Mediterranean climate. The parts of eastern
agro-climatic zone have Mediterranean climate; and tropical and subtropical - steppe and
desert climates. The parts of northern agro-climatic zone have mid-latitude steppe and desert
climate; and Mediterranean climate. The north-eastern agro-climatic zone has Mediterranean
climate and mid-latitude steppe and desert climate. The parts of southern agro-climatic zone
have Mediterranean climate to mid-latitude steppe and desert climate. The parts of south-
western agro-climatic zone has mid-latitude steppe, and desert climate; tropical and
subtropical desert climate; and Mediterranean climate. The western agro-climatic zone has
tropical and subtropical desert climate; mid-latitude steppe and desert climate; and
Mediterranean climate.
About crops: Wheat, Maize, Barley and Rice are the main crops cultivated in the most of the
zones covering arable area. Grapes and pomegranates are the major fruits in all the zones
based on the coverage area. Potato and onion are the major vegetable crops grown in all
zones.
3. Stakeholders Perception of Climate Change on Agriculture
We studied the effect and perception of climate variability over past 30 years on agriculture
through field study by interacting with the farmers and officials concerned with the agriculture
and line departments. We have collected both quantitative and qualitative data on the
following aspects: Irrigation sources; Rainfall trend of 30 years; Rainfall variability of 15 years;
Snowfall trend of 30 years; Snowfall variability of 15 years; Temperature trend of 30 years;
Temperature variability of 15 years; Flood trend of 30 years; Water availability of 30 years;
Drought occurrence of 30 years; Details of fodder crops; Irrigation sources; Seasonality of
crops and Climate change adaptation. Also information was collected from the officials related
to adaptation to climate change, climate smart agriculture practices, and training on climate
change mitigation and adaptation.
The farmer's perception is summarized as follows:
• The rainfall was high 30 to 26 years ago. The rainfall was low 25 to 16 years ago. Since
15 years the rainfall is normal.
• The snowfall was high 30 years ago. The snowfall was low 20 years ago. It is normal
since 15 years.

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• The temperatures were low 30 years ago. The average temperatures were normal
between 25 to 6 years ago. The average temperatures are high since last 5 years.
• There were frequent floods 30 years ago. The floods were normal 15 to 1 years ago.
Presently the floods are normal.
• The water availability was high in Afghanistan 30 to 26 years ago. The water
availability was low 25 to 16 years ago. The availability of water is normal since 15
years in most parts of the country.
• The drought was low during the period 30 to 26 years ago. Experienced a severe
drought in many parts of Afghanistan during the period 25 to 16 years ago. The drought
since 15 years has been normal.
• The main source of irrigation for the majority of the habitations in all the agro-climatic
zones is from canals or local streams and rivers.
• The fodder used for feeding the livestock is very diverse such as wheat straw, alfalfa,
clover, maize, weeds, barley straw, rice straw / hay, mung bean straw, bean straw, and
desert weed / wild crop. The main sources of fodder for cattle are: wheat straw, alfalfa,
clover, and maize are used as feed. the small ruminants graze mostly on desert weed
and wild crop.
• Majority of the crops are sowed in spring and summer.
Regarding the climate change, the respondents said that
• There is a change in the amount of rainfall during the rainy season.
• There is a decrease in the average quantity of rainfall during the rainy season.
• There is a shift in the timing of the onset of rain during the rainy season
• Rainfall starts later than normal occurrence.
• The number of rainy days is becoming less.
• Rainfall is varying as compared to the normal rain fall.
• There is a decrease in recurrences of floods.
• About 50 % of them agreed that there is increase in the intensity of floods.
• The majority of them have experienced that there is an increase in recurrence of
droughts and increase in the severity of the droughts.
• The average temperature is increasing.
Regarding climate change adaptation, majority of them have adopted to a change in date of
planting the crops. The respondents have said that the climate change can lead to the following
impacts: Prolonged drought; Reduction of rainfall; Cause flooding; Reduction of crop yield;
Increase in temperature; Increase in deforestation and Cause water shortage. The farmers
believe that the changes in the local climate will continue in the future too. Such as low
rainfall, low snowfall, high temperature, and reoccurrence of drought. The other impacts
would be that there would be a low yield of the majority of crops. On the whole, there would
be a decrease in crop production.
The response from the officials concerning to agriculture is as follows:
Regarding adaptation to climate change for Agriculture everyone agreed upon the following
aspects:
• Enhance the capacity of the primary and secondary stakeholders in understanding
climate change and agriculture, through education and training.
• Enhance the awareness and provide the information on climate change and
agriculture.

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• More research needs to be done in the area of Climate Change and Agriculture and
disseminate the research results to farmers and secondary stakeholders.
• Develop and introduce new crop varieties to increase the tolerance and suitability of
plants to temperature, moisture, and other relevant climatic conditions.
• Develop and/or strengthen early warning systems that provide daily weather
predictions and seasonal forecasts.
• Strengthen timely dissemination of weather forecasting information to farmers.
• Introduce the crop insurance for reducing the risk due to climate variability and
extreme events.
• Develop and strengthen water management innovations to address the risk of
moisture deficiencies and increasing frequency of droughts.
• Develop and implement policies and programs to influence farm-level land and
water resource use and management practices.
Regarding climate-smart agricultural practices they expressed the following practices:
minimum tillage, crop rotation, soil protection, appropriate seeds, terraces, control weeds and
best use of agriculture inputs.
Regarding training on climate change mitigation and adaptation they observed that very few
officials have participated in the training programmes. So, there is a requirement of dedicated
capacity building programme for the concerned officials in the areas of climate change
mitigation and adaptation for agriculture.
On the whole, the interactions with the primary stakeholders clearly show that the farmers are
feeling the climate change impact due to increased temperature values and decreased
precipitation. There is a change in the seasonality of the crops due to the variability of
occurrence of precipitation/ rainfall.
4. Cultivation practices of major crops and effect of climate change
We explained the cultivation practices of 20 major perennial and annual crops cultivated in
Afghanistan. The crops are, Wheat, Barley, Maize, Rice, Grape, Cotton, Melon, Potato, Water
Melon, Almond, Apple, Pomegranate, Apricot, Onion, Citrus, Saffron, Olive, Peach, Plum and
Walnuts. We also discussed the effect of climate change, especially low precipitation and high
temperature on these crops. Wheat, Barley, Maize, and Rice are major food crops.
The summary of effect of climate change on different crops is as follows.
(i) Wheat: The climate change effect on Wheat crop is significant. The reduction of
rainfall by 10–20% reduces the expected yield 10–20% for wheat. The increase in
rainfall by 10–20% increases the expected yield 9–18% for wheat. The increase of
temperature is more advantageous for wheat yield when the rainfall increased. The
increase of temperature by 1–2 C for wheat had adverse impacts on yield for dry
scenarios, particularly for 60 days. The increase of air temperature (with no change
in rainfall) by 1, 2, 3 and 4 C resulted in deviating the expected yield -17%, +4%,
+43% and +113% for Wheat.
(ii) Barley: Barley is more sensitive to stress in growth stage during jointing, booting
and heading. To optimize yield, soil moisture levels should remain above 50 % of
available moisture in the active root zone from seeding to the soft dough stage.
The reduction of rainfall by 10–20% reduced the expected yield by 4–8% for

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barley. The increase in rainfall by 10–20% increased the expected yield by 3–5%
for barley. The increase of air temperature (with no change in rainfall) by 1, 2,3
and 4 C resulted in deviating the expected yield by -14%, -28%, -38% and -46%
for barley. The extreme scenario of climate change (+4 C temperatures and -20%
rainfalls) resulted in decreasing the average yield of barley by 51%. At flowering
barley can tolerate 1deg. C lower frost than wheat. A frost of -4deg. C at head
height during flowering can cause between 5-30% yield loss. A frost of -5deg. C or
lower at head height can cause 100% yield loss. Later maturing and shorter stature
varieties are preferred for early planting to avoid tall lush early growth.
(iii) Maize: Drought has a significant effect on maize production in Afghanistan
especially where irrigation infrastructure is limited. Drought during the crop
establishment stage can kill young plants, reducing the plant density. The main
effect of the drought in the vegetative period is to reduce leaf growth, so the crop
intercepts less sunlight. Around flowering (from about two weeks before siling to
two weeks after silking), maize is very sensitive to moisture stress. Grain yield can
be seriously affected if drought occurs during this period. During the grain-filling
period, the main effect of drought is to reduce kernel size. The occurrence of
moisture stress usually varies greatly from year to year. If you observe symptoms of
stress one year, you still need to examine weather records and talk to farmers to
find out if it is a common problem. If drought is a common problem, it will reduce
yield by more than 20% in one year out of four. The maize crop can tolerate a
wide range of temperatures (from 5 to 45oC), but very low or very high
temperatures can have a negative effect on yield. The crop is often affected by low
sunlight when extended periods of cloudy weather occur, especially if they
coincide with flowering.
(iv) Rice: A decline in rainfall during rice growing season would increase rice yield by
4.92% and 16.75% respectively when a decline of 5% and 15% in rainfall occurs.
An increase in temperature by 0.3oC is associated with decline in rice yield by
0.05%. The increase in yields is found to be 2.09% and 4.33% when temperature
may increase by 1.5 deg. C and 3.0 deg. C, respectively. Although rice yield may
rise, an increase in temperature would induce rising demand for irrigation water
due to more evapo-transpiration.
(v) Grape: Late rains would lead to production of low quality fruits. The general trend
is that the yield is most sensitive to water stress at flowering. As the season
progresses, the vine becomes less sensitive. However, yield losses of up to 25%
can occur late in the season if the vine is severely water stressed. Water stress – At
any time will decrease fruit size but the development is particularly sensitive
during rapid berry growth for the 2 to 3 weeks after bloom. High temperature and
late rains would contribute to increase in fungal diseases and pests. Early frost
would lead to loss of flowers and shoots.
(vi) Cotton: Cotton is known as a drought tolerant crop – in part because after periods
of stress (and due to its indeterminate growth), it will produce new leaves and
flowers. Cotton is very sensitive to frost.
(vii) Melon: Fairly resistant to moderate drought, but normally needs irrigation. Low at
any time. Requires warm temperatures and a high light intensity
(viii) Potato: Shallow, sparse root system, Medium-high needs; frequent light irrigation
best. Under warmer climate conditions and where water is not limiting, plants will
transpire more; this accounts for the 6.5–11.4%increase in crop
evapotranspiration. The combine defects of reduced rainfall (−7 to−12%) and

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increased evapotranspiration results in a significant increase in average irrigation
need of 14–30%, depending on the site and emissions scenario. At temperatures
of 12-13 deg. C, emergence is achieved within 12-30 days. Potato plant is
sensitive at very low temperatures. At temperature of 3 deg. C serious damage is
caused to the foliage and at temperature below minus 2 deg. C, plants will entirely
freeze and destroyed.
(ix) Water melon: Watermelons need water throughout the season, but a particularly
important time when to water watermelons is while they are setting and growing
fruit. The reason for this is that watermelon fruit is made up of 92 percent water.
This means that the plant must take up an enormous amount of water while the
fruit is developing. If this water is not available to the plant at this time, the fruit
will not be able to grow to its full potential and may stunt the fruit or cause it to
fall off the vine.
(x) Almond: Low rain will decrease the amount of water and slow down the
fertilization process. High temperature would increase the demand for water
consumption in field.
(xi) Apple: The apple’s water need is high, about 800mm per year. Needs cool
winters. -20 deg. C. causes freeze damage. Needs cool winters. Freeze damage
occurs at -20 deg. C. Flowers and young fruit killed at -2 deg. C.
(xii) Pomegranate: If rainfall during the growing season isn’t frequent, pomegranate
orchards should be watered every 7-10 days, with more frequent irrigations for
light to medium soils, less frequent for heavy soils. Despite not requiring a winter
chilling period, the pomegranate is reasonably cold tolerant provided the onset of
winter is gradual and the plant is fully dormant - withstanding temperatures down
to -12deg. C. Sudden frosts in autumn before the plant has adjusted or in late
spring, when in active growth can kill stems and trunks of the plant.
(xiii) Apricot: If frost occurs in spring just before or during bloom, the crop can be
destroyed. Drought tolerance is moderate, needs irrigation throughout the growing
season. Prefers Mediterranean or continental climate, warm moist summer result
in poor flower initiation i.e., not suited to Khost, frost tolerance a problem due to
early flowering. The temperature -4 deg. C. will damage swelling buds, -2 deg. C.
will damage flowers and -1 deg. C. will damage small fruit. Prefer dry areas
especially with low rainfall at blossom and maturity.
(xiv) Onion: Onion is very sensitive to water stress under climate conditions confirm
that onion produced from seed cannot be grown without irrigation in the climatic
conditions in some region.
(xv) Citrus: Citrus, a perennial evergreen tree, requires available soil moisture
throughout the year-- generally a minimum of 115 to 130 cm of water annually.
Mature trees require more water than young trees but young trees require more
frequent irrigation because of limited root systems. It can have disease problems in
high humidity tropics.
(xvi) Saffron: Saffron can tolerate extreme temperatures (-18 deg. C. to +40 deg. C.), but
it prefers a climate with wet winters and hot, dry summers.
(xvii) Olive: Climate change threatens agro-ecosystems of olive which is an ancient
drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance
in the Mediterranean basin. Studies have shown that the flowering period of olive
trees is highly dependent on the yearly spring temperatures, which are rising
steadily over time.

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(xviii) Peach: Moderate but adequate water needed to size fruit. Plentiful water supply
required, especially in final fruiting stage. Nectarines and peaches are prone to
cracking if heavy rain falls close to harvest. Ideal fruit development in temperate
regions with warm-hot summers. Low cold tolerance. T<-4˚ C damages buds.
Small fruits are damaged at -1˚ C.
(xix) Plum: Plums are shallow rooted and fast growing plants hence need sufficient
moisture during growing period. Plum prefers temperate climate.
(xx) Walnuts: The walnut tree needs plenty of moisture. The chief injury to walnuts
from high temperatures occurs on the fruit, causing sunburn, which may result in
blank nuts, if it occurs early in the season, or in partly developed kernels and thin
spots on the shells if it appears late in the summer.
5. Climate Trends: Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature over Afghanistan
The temperature of Afghanistan has been increased for the entire country in recent years of
2004 to 2016. The trend analysis reveals that precipitation has been decreased for most parts of
the Afghanistan in recent years. Whereas, the extreme indices study reveals that precipitation
has shown an increasing trend for the zones of North-East, South, East and West zones of
Afghanistan. Decreasing trends in the precipitation extreme indices have been observed for
North, South-West and Central zones of Afghanistan for the period of 2004 to 2016.
6. Climate Change Scenarios of Precipitation and Temperature over Afghanistan
We have developed the climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperatures are
developed for statistical and dynamical downscaling results. The report consists of dynamic
downscaling climate change scenarios with RCM. The precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperatures climate change scenarios for future scenarios of 2017 to 2036 and 2037 to 2056
for RCPs 45 and 85 with RCM. And Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization (CSIRO), Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), USA are developed for Central Zone of Afghanistan. The
scenarios are developed for two future time slices of 2017 to 2036 and 2037 to 2056 and
compared with the historical period of 1970 to 2005. Overall it is observed that an overall
increase in the precipitation is predicted for all zones with the statistical downscaling results.
More specifically, the precipitation of rainy months are expecting to increase and dry months
are getting more drier under climate change.
7. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Adaptation Measures
Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) is computed to analyze the impact of climate change on
agriculture. In all the zones, June and July month has higher PET values, while January,
February and December have relatively lower PET values. No conclusive pattern of change in
PET over time is observed over the entire Afghanistan. Different zones show a relatively higher
PET in different duration. The monthly average PET over Centre zone varies from 1 to 110 mm.
A relatively higher PET is observed during 2017-2036. In North zone, monthly average PET
values vary from 5 to 170 mm. A relatively higher PET is observed during 2037-2056. In North-
East zone monthly average PET values varies from 1 to 130 mm. A relatively higher PET is
observed during 1970-2005. In South zone monthly average PET values varies from 5 to 105
mm. A relatively higher PET is observed during 2037-2056. In South-West zone monthly
average PET values varies from 5 to 200 mm. A relatively higher PET is observed during 2017-
2036. In West zone monthly average PET values varies from 5 to 210 mm. A relatively higher

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PET is observed during 2017-2036. All the zones show an increase in the PET in future except
the North-East zone. The increase in PET over time is marginal in South zone, while there is a
significant increase in South-West, West and North Zone.
Historical irrigation water demand
The historical climate data is taken from CORDEX at daily timestep. The zonal average
monthly irrigation water demand varies from 0.2 to 5.5 BCM. East, South and West zone has
the relatively lower irrigation water demand, while North and South-West zone has the
relatively higher irrigation water demand. Similarly, In January, February, March and
September month has the relatively lower irrigation water demand, while in May, June and July
month has the relatively higher irrigation water demand.
The historical climate data is taken from CORDEX at daily timestep. The crop acreage data
was available only for year 2015 and similar cropping pattern is assumed for all the years. The
zonal average annual irrigation water demand varies from 2.5 to 20 BCM. East, South and
West zone has the relatively lower irrigation water demand, while North and South-West zone
has the relatively higher irrigation water demand.
Future irrigation water demand
zonal average annual irrigation water demand varies from 3.5 to 25 BCM. East and South zone
has the relatively lower irrigation water demand, while North and South-West zone has the
relatively higher irrigation water demand.
zonal average annual irrigation water demand varies from 3.5 to 25 BCM. East and West zone
has the relatively lower irrigation water demand, while North and South-West zone has the
relatively higher irrigation water demand.
There is significant increase in future annual average water demand for North and South-West
zones. While, other zones show a relative marginal increase in irrigation water demand for
future data compared to the historical data.
Adaptation Measures for Major Crops
The major adaptation practices for improving Wheat, Barley, Maize, and Rice production in
Afghanistan include: introduction of new varieties; modern seeding methods of application;
laser levelling of the fields for water use efficiency and even growth; mechanical planting (line
planting) for efficient in time planting and cope with the labour demands during the peak
season; introduction of highly efficient irrigation systems; improving soil moisture & water
conservation through mulching.
The major adaptation practices for melon, water melon and potato include: introduction of
new hybrid varieties for higher and quality production; laser levelling of the fields for water use
efficiency and even growth; Global GAP application to insure the new emerging export
markets; introduction of highly efficient irrigation systems of drip irrigation; improving soil
moisture & water conservation through mulching; IPM application to insure the quality and

19
safety of the products.
The major adaptation practices for grapes, apple, pomegranate apricot, citrus, olive, peach,
plum, almond, and walnuts include: introduction of new market-oriented varieties for higher
and quality production; Global GAP application to ensure the new emerging export markets;
High density orchards establishment of apples, pears, plums for higher and quality production;
Trellising for grapes as well as for high density orchards of apple, pears and plums;
introduction of highly efficient irrigation systems of furrow and drip irrigation; IPM application
to ensure the quality and safety of the products; applying biofertilizer of FYM and compost to
enrich the soil fertility and water conservation.
The major adaptation practices for cotton and saffron crops include: introduction of new
varieties for higher and quality production; Ridges planting to increasing the yield and
simplifying the practices; Laser leveling to ensure the irrigation and harvesting properly;
introduction of highly efficient irrigation systems of furrow and drip irrigation; IPM application
to ensure the quality and safety of the products; applying biofertilizer of FYM and compost to
enrich the soil fertility and water conservation; Gin will be used for pressing cotton.
Recommendations
1. Because of presence of mountains occupying the central part of Afghanistan the
climate varies drastically within short distance. So, for quality and relevant climate
change analysis results at province and sub-province level, agro-meteorological
stations need to be established at the earliest, one station for every 10 km distance,
covering all parts of Afghanistan. As the land under cultivation in Afghanistan is
limited and mostly located to the river banks and valleys, the weather stations must be
located especially in all those places.
2. Based on the real-time meteorological data collected through weather stations,
agriculture support systems have to be developed. Systems should be operated by
providing farmers with weather-dependent agricultural content and adaptation
measures.
3. Based on realtime weather and crop data, index-based crop insurance should be
introduced to protect the farmers from climate related hazards.
4. The most vulnerable agro-climatic zones due to climate change in the next 40 years
are: Eastern Agro-climatic zone and Western Agro-climatic zone. Special focus should
be given on these zones for climate change adaptation.
5. Human resources who 0have the knowledge of climate change and weather
variability are essential for the success of climate change related initiatives/programs.
So, extensive capacity building and capacity development programmes are to be
initiated by the agriculture department, extension department and line departments.
6. Farmer require timely knowledge on scientific agricultural practices which change
over time due to climate change. IT-based farm-specific and location-specific
agricultural advisory systems should be operated by exploiting latest advances in
information technology and agriculture. The IT-based systems can utilize the expertise
of specialists in an efficient manner and regularly based on requirements.
7. There is a need for research and development of the crops / plants verities required to
adopt to the changes in climate and resources. That is, crop development (for changed
climatic conditions), involvement of the Government agencies (focus in breeding
programme), corporations (developing and marketing new crop varieties), and also

20
producers (selecting and growing new crops).
8. As an adaptation measure for climate change, livestock-farming should be exploited.
Diversify livestock types and varieties to address the environmental variations and
economic risks associated with climate change.
9. The climate adaptation measures from places with similar climate change scenarios in
the world by computing climate analogues should be studied. Efforts should be made
to replicate the relevant climate smart practices.
10. For the future sustainability of agriculture, information and training on climate smart
agriculture practices should be provided to the farmers. Initially need to focus on
highly vulnerable agro-climatic zones.
11. Minor climatic variations can have a major impact on agricultural output even in a
single growing season, so long-term agricultural productivity and food security will be
affected by ongoing climate change. Therefore, climate change impacts on agriculture
are to be assessed from time to time to cope with the changes in agriculture and
develop adaptation measures.
12. In the curriculum of agriculture and allied courses, climate change aspects need to be
included.
13. Efforts should be made to have dedicated weather satellite for Afghanistan which can
be used for getting weather data in a compressive and holistic manner, for supporting
the farmers, planners, policy makers and other stakeholders.
14. The weather information of all weather stations, should be maintained in a web portal.
The web portal developed under this project should be maintained and integrated
with other existing information systems. And also the improved versions of software
should be developed and refined based on the demand from the stakeholders and user
feedback.
15. The scenarios indicate that the temperature is increasing and precipitation is
decreasing. So, the underlying hydrological system is sensitive to climate change. The
changes in temperature and precipitation may result in changes in soil moisture,
ground water recharge and runoff. Agricultural production depends on the availability
of water, either as precipitation or in the form of irrigation. Considering Afghanistan
having an arid and semi-arid climate and future water demands for increased crop
production, there is a need to develop several irrigation projects and watershed
management activities for sustainable agriculture.
16. The global warming due to climate change increases temperature value at higher
altitudes and latitudes. More land will become suitable for agriculture with longer
growing seasons and increased warmth. Suitable agricultural technologies need to be
developed to take advantage of these opportunities.
17. The adoption of technological innovations, for example, green house and poly-house
technologies, should be adopted as a strategy for adaptation in agriculture to climate
change.
18. Diversification for source of household income in order to address the risk of climate-
related income losses in Agriculture.
19. Considering the climate change scenarios, adaptation plans for agriculture should be
developed for all the provinces of Afghanistan.

21
Chapter 1
1 Introduction
1.1 Background
Afghanistan is landlocked multiethnic country located in the heart of South-Central Asia.
Afghanistan remains one of the poorest countries in the world today, with an estimated
population of 27.10 million (CSO, 2015-16) and a per capita GDP of USD 594.3 (World Bank,
2015). Currently, Afghanistan is among the countries with low levels of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. The Global Adaptation Index (2012) ranked Afghanistan as the most vulnerable
countries in the world under climate change.
Afghanistan has extensive development and climate adaptation needs. Afghanistan is highly
prone to natural disasters throughout its 34 provinces. As a result of climate change, it is
anticipated that the incidence of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods, and
droughts will likely increase, as will climate change-linked disasters such as glacial lake
outflows. The majority of Afghanistan's population relies directly or indirectly on the available
natural resources for their livelihoods so with these climatic changes the foundation of the
country's economy, stability, and food security is under threat. The country has a need to
promote and strengthen adaptation strategies that aim at improving water management and use
efficiency; improved agricultural practices and research; rangeland management; development
of a disaster management strategy; development and research into climate and early warning
systems; improved food security; and diversification of livelihoods.
Appropriate support in the form of finance, capacity building, technology and legal assistance
is needed for Afghanistan to make substantial progress on social and economic fronts while
maintaining low per capita GHG emission levels. While Afghanistan has made measurable
progress in human development over the past six years, it remains one of the poorest and most
vulnerable countries in the world. It is ranked 169 in UNDP’s Human Development Report
2016 which is considered as low human development. The University of Notre Dame Global
Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN), summarizes a country's vulnerability to climate change and
other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience, with 175 rank
given to Afghanistan recognizes as the most vulnerable country in 2015. Its vulnerability rank
is 172, it measures a country's exposure, sensitivity and ability to adapt to the negative impact
of climate change. ND-GAIN measures the overall vulnerability by considering vulnerability in
six life-supporting sectors – food, water, health, ecosystem service, human habitat and
infrastructure. Its readiness rank is 173, it measures a country’s ability to leverage investments
and convert them to adaptation actions. ND-GAIN measures overall readiness by considering
three components – economic readiness, governance readiness and social readiness.
Taking into account the country's exposure, sensitivity and ability to cope with climate-related
hazards. Climate change scenarios for Afghanistan suggest temperature increases of up to 4deg.
C by the 2060s (from 1970-1999 averages) and a corresponding decrease in rainfall. The
biophysical effects of climate change are expected to be significant; droughts are likely to be
the norm by 2030 leading to associated dynamics of desertification and land degradation

22
(Source: National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)). About 85% of Afghans are
dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. Coping with the impacts of climate change is a
major challenge for development in Afghanistan given that its adverse effects are likely to be
most severely felt by the poor and marginalized due to their high dependence on subsistence
agriculture and limited capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes.
Additionally, Afghanistan is a landlocked, mountainous country, and one of the most climate
data-poor regions on Earth, where the fundamental processes relating to climate change,
climate variability and their impacts are poorly understood, making climate monitoring,
modeling and developing climate change projections particularly challenging.
1.1.1 Climate change trends, impacts, and vulnerabilities
Afghanistan is ranked among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the adverse impacts
of climate change. Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) report has documented an increase of 0.6 deg. C in
the country’s mean annual temperature since 1960. The climate projections (2008-2090)
assessed was that the mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 4.0 deg. C by
the 2060s, and 2.0 to 6.2 deg. C by the 2090s. The range of projections by 2090 under any
one emissions scenario is around 1.5 to 2.5 deg. C.
Mean rainfall over Afghanistan has decreased slightly (at an average rate of 0.5mm per month
(or 2%) per decade,) since 1960 till 2006. Based upon recent climate observations,
precipitation patterns have decreased during springtime (March-May) by approximately
40.5mm; however, the total annual precipitation has only slightly decreased by approximately
30mm since there is a slight increase in precipitation from June until November. This implies
that Afghanistan is already beginning to experience the initial adverse impacts of climate
change.
Recent climate projections, based on CORDEX regional climate models and Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs)1
, indicate that Afghanistan will face a strong overall increase in
mean annual temperature, considerably higher than global mean projections when compared
to a baseline period of 1986-2006. More specifically, under the “optimistic” scenario (RCP4.5),
the mean of the model ensembles projects a warming of approximately 1.5 deg. C until 2050
and of approximately 2.5 deg. C until 2100. For the “pessimistic” scenario (RCP8.5), the
models project an extreme warming of approximately 3 deg. C until 2050, with further
warming up to 7 deg. C by 2100 under both scenarios, there are regional differences, with
higher temperature increases at higher altitudes compared to the lowlands.
For precipitation, a significant (α=0.05) mean decrease of precipitation during springtime
1
Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are GHG emission scenarios adopted by the IPCC to
describe four possible climate futures depending on the levels of future global GHGs emitted. There
are four RCPs: 1) RCP2.6, which assumes that GHG emissions peak between 2010-2020 and then
decline; 2) RCP4.5, which assumes that GHG emissions peak around 2040 and then decline; 3)
RCP6, which assumes that GHG emissions peak around 2080 and then decline; and 4) RCP8.5,
which assumes that GHGs emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.

23
(March-May) for the North, the Central highlands and the East for both scenarios from 2006
until 2050 between 5-10 percent is seen. This decrease is offset by a slight increase in
precipitation during autumn and wintertime (October-December) in these regions. For the
Hindu Kush area, a significant and substantial increase in precipitation during the winter
season of approximately 10 percent is seen, whereas during spring season precipitation is
projected to stay stable. For the arid South of the country, the models do not project significant
trends for precipitation. The decrease of precipitation during spring is particularly relevant
since during these months the main plant growth for agricultural production takes place. In
addition, the decrease is projected to take place in the regions of the highest agricultural
productivity of Afghanistan (East, North, and Central highlands). In combination with the
overall increase in temperature and the related increase in evapotranspiration across the
country, this will most likely negatively impact the hydrological cycle, agricultural
productivity, and availability of water resources. Climatic changes are also likely to impact
upon the spread of water, food and vector-borne diseases, presenting considerable health risks
to both urban and rural populations. Finally, the aforementioned climate-induced risks and
challenges can enhance social inequalities, poverty, and food insecurity causing considerable
and fundamental threats to human life, livelihoods, property, political stability, the economy,
and the environment in Afghanistan. Based upon these climate change projections,
Afghanistan's environment will experience considerable changes over the remainder of this
century. Climate change, based on sound scientific analysis of climatic changes and
uncertainties, must be mainstreamed into sectorial planning to reduce the negative impacts of
climate change in Afghanistan and increase resilience, both in rural and urban areas.
1.1.2 Climate change adaptation
Afghanistan’s vision for addressing the adverse impacts of climate change through adaptation
aims to protect the country and its population by enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience,
effectively respond to the vulnerabilities of critical sectors, and efficiently mainstream climate
change considerations into national development policies, strategies, and plans. In order to
achieve this vision, a national strategy for climate change adaptation must include community
level vulnerabilities and build up their adaptive capacities by investment in short- and long-
term initiatives. Short-term action plans formed part of the NAPA (2009), while the NAPA will
implement both short- and long-term priorities include, but are not limited to:
• Reducing vulnerability of the country and its population through enhancement of
adaptive capacity and resilience, and deployment of disaster risk reduction
approaches;
• Integrating climate change consideration into the national planning processes;
• Promoting economic development and sustainable rural livelihoods through
sustainable management of environmental resources and increase access to
modern forms of efficient and sustainable energy services;
• Improvement of technical capacity in governmental institutions;
• Adaptive and integrated land and water management;
• Improving access by rural communities and farmers to water to support food
security, reduce poverty and improve agricultural productions; and

24
• Raising awareness for people of Afghanistan on climate change impacts and
adaptation measures.
1.2 About climate change adaptation project, Objectives, and Tasks
Weather stations were first installed in limited quantities in Afghanistan before the 1940s,
increasing to approximately 60 stations around Afghanistan until 1984. However, from 1983 to
2003 no meteorological data was collected. During the 2000s some NGOs and multilateral
organizations installed weather stations in different parts of the country e.g. Danish Committee
for Aid to Afghan Refugees (DACAAR), Mission d' Aide au Development des Economies
Rurales en Afghanistan (MADERA), Action Centre La Faim (ACF) and Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO). In 2002 the need for the rehabilitation of existing stations was expressed,
with FAO undertaking an inventory of all existing stations and installation of new rain gauges.
Government employees MAIL, Afghanistan's Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation & Livestock
(MAIL) were trained in data collection, after which a total of 70 stations were active (five
manual stations, five automatic weather stations [AWS] and 60 rain gauges). From 1st January
2004, USGS continued installing rain gauges, including four automated weather stations in
2013. Currently AGROMET/MAIL has data from two types of stations; 113 manual rain gauges
and 15 automated agro-meteorology stations. From the manual rain gauge stations daily
Precipitation (rainfall and snow) data is collected. From the Automated Stations daily data on
the following parameters is collected: precipitation, air temperature average, solar radiation,
soil temperature, relative humidity, sun shine hours, barometric pressure average,
evapotranspiration, soil moisture, wind direction average. There is a need to centrally collect
all these data, as well as develop a centrally managed quality control and archiving system.
Outputs from global climate models are often of limited utility for a country like Afghanistan,
where the topography is complex. The coarseness of their spatial resolution (1-3 deg. C, -100 -
300 km) means that several aspects of climate dynamics that occur at smaller spatial scales,
including clouds and precipitation, and many of the controls on these events such as
topography and land cover, are imperfectly resolved by General Circulation Modes (GCMs). In
a country as topographically heterogeneous as Afghanistan, the lack of fine-resolution climate
change projections is problematic for sector analyses of climate change impacts (e.g.
agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, biodiversity, etc.). Projections are therefore ideally
needed at finer spatial scales, such as basins, watersheds, agro-ecological zone- or
administrative unit scales. While this suggests a requirement for climate downscaling, it is
important that uncertainties associated with future projections (including those due to the
choice of downscaling method) are carefully considered. It is, therefore, important to carefully
balance the computational requirement/limitations of dynamical downscaling with the ability
to sample a wide range of GCMs through statistical methods. Future climate scenarios should,
therefore, be based on robust projections, developed through a combination of information
from GCMs, dynamical and statistical downscaling, with clearly defined confidence limits.
Climate information collected from weather stations (and associated trends/changes over time),
as well as projections of future climate developed through downscaling and the GCM models,
will be used to assess impacts on agriculture in Afghanistan. Furthermore, a web-based
mechanism for presenting, downloading and understanding these different sources of climate
information is required to be able to distribute these data for sectorial impact.

25
The objective of this assignment is to support Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
(MAIL) to undertake quality control and archiving of historical meteorological data in
Afghanistan, and the development of climate downscaling for the seven agro-climatic zones,
i.e., covering all the 34 provinces of Afghanistan, in order to generate future climate change
scenarios for agriculture for policy development and further impact analyses at the sectorial
level. Capacity to undertake these activities are built within MAIL and other national and sub-
national institutes through training, technology transfer and the active participation of relevant
staff in project activities. A further objective of this assignment is to disseminate the derived
scenarios and use the gathered data and future scenarios to identify regions, crops and farming
practices, which may be subject to increasing stresses through both ongoing and future climate
change.
The objectives of the project are as follows.
• To support MAIL and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA)
to undertake quality control and archiving of historical meteorological data in
Afghanistan.
• To develop the climate change downscaling models for all the provinces of Afghanistan
in order to generate future climate change projections for policy development.
• To study the agricultural impact assessment at the sectorial level of Afghanistan.
• Capacity to undertake these activities will be built within MAIL and other national and
sub-national institutes through training, technology transfer and the active participation
of relevant staff in project activities.
• To disseminate the derived scenarios and use the gathered data and future scenarios for
crops and farming practices of agro-climatic zones which may be subject to increasing
stresses through both ongoing and future climate change.
Tasks: After the stakeholders meeting and conducting of two workshops, the above objectives
are organized into following tasks.
• Digitize, quality control and analyses of historical meteorological data.
• Dynamic climate downscaling.
• Development of a web portal.
• Workshops and dissemination.
• Developing climate change scenarios reports for all the agro-climatic zones of
Afghanistan.
1.3 Agro-climatic zones in Afghanistan
For this report, we considered the seven agro-climatic zones of Afghanistan as depicted in
Figure. 1.1. The classification of agro-climatic zones was published in the "Beekeeping survey
report (2014), published by Beekeeping and Animal Husbandry Development Project (BAHDP)
and Beekeeping Development Project (BDP), Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock
(MAIL). Shared the agro-climatic zones with CCAP and AMU and in consultation were adopted
in this report. The agro-climatic zones with provinces are depicted in Figure. 1.2. The names of
the provinces under each agro-climatic zone and the provinces covered in the field study are
given in Table 1.1.

26
Figure. 1.1 Seven agro-climatic zones of Afghanistan
Figure. 1.2: Seven agro-climatic zones of Afghanistan with provinces

27
Table 1.1: Agro-climatic zones, provinces and the provinces covered in the field study.
# Name of the agro-climatic
zones
Provinces Provinces covered in the field study
1 Central agro-climatic zone
(CACZ)
Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Panjsher,
Bamyan, Ghazni and Wardak
Bamyan, Kabul, Ghazni, Parwan,
Wardak and Kapisa
2 Eastern agro-climatic zone
(EACZ)
Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar,
Nuristan
Nangarhar, Laghman, Kunar
3 Northern agro-climatic zone
(NACZ)
Balkh, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan
and Sar-e-pul
Jawzjan, Balkh and Samangan
4 North-East agro-climatic zone
(NEACZ)
Takhar, Baghlan, Badakhshan,
Kunduz,
Takhar, Baghlan, Badakhshan,
Kunduz,
5 Southern agro-climatic zone
(SACZ)
Khost, Logar, Paktika and Paktia Khost and Paktia
6 South-West agro-climatic zone
(SWACZ)
Daykundi, Helmand, Kandahar,
Urozgan and Zabul
Kandahar, Urozgan and Helmand
7 Western agro-climatic zone
(WACZ)
Nimroz, Badghis, Farah, Ghor and
Herat
Herat
Total 34 22
1.4 Scope and organization of this report
This report contains the details of the work carried out for the following tasks.
• Digitize, quality control and analyses of historical meteorological data
• Dynamic climate downscaling
• Developing climate change scenarios reports for all the agro-climatic zones of
Afghanistan
The report is organized as follows: In chapter 2, we will explain about the geography, climate,
and agriculture of each agro-climatic zone. In chapter 3, we describe the stakeholder's
perception of climate change on agriculture in Afghanistan. In chapter 4, presented on the
effect of climate on crops in chapter 5, we present the historical climate trends in Afghanistan.
In chapter 6, we explain the climate change scenarios. In chapter 7, we discuss the impact on
agriculture and provide the adaptation measures. The last section contains summary,
adaptation measures and recommendations.

28

29
Chapter 2
2 Geography, Climate, and Agriculture in Afghanistan
In this chapter, we explain the geography, climate, and crops of each agro-climatic zone
(ACZ). The geography, climate and crops of Afghanistan is largely influenced by the high
mountains and valleys which are present in almost all the provinces. The elevation map of
Afghanistan is shown in Figure 2.1.
For each ACZ, we provide
(i) The details of provinces, elevation, land use and population.
(ii) The information about the climate of Afghanistan is provided as per Köppen-
Geiger classification system which is a vegetation-based empirical climate
classification system developed by German botanist-climatologist Wladimir
Köppen (https://en.climate-data.org). The model uses weather data from weather
stations collected between collected between 1982 and 2012.
(iii) The details of major crops cultivated, planting and harvesting seasonality, and
province-wise cultivated area. The major crops are selected based on the area of
the crop under cultivation and the importance or economic value of the crop.
Figure 2.1: Elevation map of Afghanistan

30
2.1 Central Agro-Climatic Zone (CACZ)
2.1.1 Geography
The Central Agro-Climatic Zone (CACZ) is a mountainous area and occupies 66,065.19 sq.
km. from a total 655,000 sq. km. area of Afghanistan (Figure. 2.2). It is located between
32°4'30'' N to 35°53'33'' N and 66°16'55'' E to 70°17'9'' E. It consists of the seven provinces,
they are Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Panjsher, Bamyan, Ghazni and Wardak (Figure. 2.3).
Figure. 2.2: Map of Afghanistan with Central agro-climatic zone

31
Figure. 2.3: Map of Central agro-climatic zone with provinces
Elevation: The elevation details of each province are given in Table 2.1. It can be observed that
Bamyan province is located at a higher elevation, i.e., 2550 meters, as compared to other areas
in the CACZ. The provinces Parwan (Charikar at 1534 meters) and Kapisa (1500 meters) are
located at the lower elevations. On the whole in this zone, the minimum elevation is 832
meters, maximum elevation is 5413 meters, and average elevation is 3053.49 meters.
Land use: Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas 2012, the land use details are given in Table
2.2. The details of arable land are given in Table 2.3. The CACZ has only 9.82 % (6487.8 sq.
km.) arable land from the total 66,065.19 sq. km. Ghazni province has more arable land
among all the provinces in CACZ.
Population details: The population density in these provinces is the highest of any other ACZ in
the country. The details are given in Table 2.4. The population of CACZ is 6675481, which
comes to 24.6% of Afghanistan’s population. CACZ is the most populous ACZ in Afghanistan.
The population in urban area and rural area constitutes 56.6% (3776988) and 43.4%
(2898493) respectively.

32
Table 2.1: Details of geographical area, main cities, and elevation in CACZ
Province Geographical Area (in sq.
km.)
Main City / Town Elevation above mean sea
level (in meters)
Kabul 4,655.28 Paghman 2276
Kabul-Center 1805
Kapisa 1881.51 Mahmod raqi 1500
Parwan
5,589.70
Jabal o Saraj 1575
Charikar 1534
Panjsher 3,729.86 Bazarak 1991
Bamyan 17,878.33 Bamyan center 2550
Ghazni 21,750.67 Ghazni 2175
Wardak 10,579.84 Maidan Shahr 2176
Source: CSO, socio-economic and demographic survey, 2012 and Wikipedia
Table 2.2: Land use of CACZ province wise (in sq. km.)
LU/ classes Kabul Kapisa Parwan Panjsher Bamyan Ghazni Wardak Total area
Geographic
al Area
4,655.28 1881.51 5,589.70 3,729.86 17,878.33 21,750.67 10,579.84 66,065.19
Irrigated 702.26 229.7 373.25 93.9 607.82 2,543.32 657.9 5208.15
Rain-fed 64.25 15.1 114.56 8.4 158.69 622.68 296.05 1279.73
Forest &
Shrubs
85.57 149.09 10.14 30.38 3.06 128.28 3.84 410.36
Fruit Trees 50.74 1,270.82 71.03 14.6 19.72 105.88 123.87 1656.66
Vineyards 116.9 8.39 72.81 0 0.32 144.83 0.66 343.91
Barren
Land
457.51 69.26 630.8 87.11 1,363.11 1,710.09 697.82 5015.7
Sand cover 0 1.05 0.04 0 0 0.00 0.1 1.19
Range Land 2,850.92 94.3 4,087.41 3,198.59 15,434.62 15,475.37 8,606.51 49,747.72
Permanent
Snow
0 1.29 122.06 254.04 172.28 0.00 84.92 634.59
Built Up 267.52 20.54 65.31 4.62 19.65 198.20 67.17 643.01
Water
bodies &
Marshland
59.6 21.96 42.31 38.23 99.06 822.03 41.02 1124.21
Total 4,655.28 1,881.51 5,589.70 3,729.86 17,878.33 21,750.67 10,579.84 66,065.19
Source: Land Cover Atlas of Afghanistan, FAO, December 2012.

33
Table 2.3: CACZ Arable land (in sq. km.)
Provinces Kabul Kapisa Parwan Panjsher Bamyan Ghazni Wardak Total
Geographical Area 4,655.2
8
1881.51 5,589.7
0
3,729.8
6
17,878.
33
21,750.
67
10,579.
84
66,065
Arable Land (Rainfed) 64.25 15.1 114.56 8.4 158.69 622.68 296.05 1279
Arable Land
(Irrigated)
702.26 229.7 373.25 93.9 607.82 2,543.3
2
657.9 5208
Arable Land (Total) 766.5 244.8 487.8 102.3 766.5 3166 953.9 6487
Rank of the total
Arable Land among
provinces
3 6 5 7 4 1 2
Arable Land in
Percentage of the
geographical area of
respective provinces
16.5 13.0 8.7 2.7 4.3 14.6 9.0
Table 2.4: CACZ population (numbers)
CACZ Population Rural Urban
Kabul 673111 3699866
Kapisa 439460 1550
Parwan 604948 59554
Wardak 593187 3100
Bamyan 434300 12918
Panjsher 153487 -
Total 2898493 3776988
Total CACZ (Rural+ Urban) 6675481
Total Afghanistan Population 27101365
The population of CACZ in percentage as compared to
Afghanistan. 24.6
Source: CSO, 2015/16
2.1.2 Climate
The climate details for each province are as follows.
• Kabul: The climate here is classified as BSk by the Köppen-Geiger system. The
local steppe climate influences Kabul. Kabul receives little rainfall during the
year. The average annual temperature is 11.4 deg. C and the annual total
precipitation is 362 mm. The driest month is June with about 1 mm of rainfall.
Most precipitation falls in March, with an average of 88 mm. The warmest month
of the year is July with an average temperature of 23.2 deg. C. In January, the
average temperature is -2.9 deg. C. It is the lowest average temperature of the
whole year.
• Kapisa: The climate is warm and temperate in Bazar-e Gulbahar. The winters are
rainier than the summers in Bazar-e Gulbahar. The Köppen-Geiger climate
classification is Csa. The average temperature in Bazar-e Gulbahar is 14.4 deg.
C. The rainfall here averages 482 mm. The driest month is August, with 1 mm of
rainfall. The greatest amount of precipitation occurs in April, with an average of

34
133 mm. The warmest month of the year is July, with an average temperature of
26.7 deg. C. The lowest average temperatures in the year occur in January when
it is around 1.3 deg. C.
• Parwan: The local steppe climate influences Charikar. During the year there is
little rainfall. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is BSk. The average
temperature in (Charikar) is 14.4 deg. C. Precipitation here averages 412 mm.
The driest month is June, with 1 mm of rainfall. Most of the precipitation here
falls in April, averaging 112 mm. The warmest month of the year is July, with an
average temperature of 26.7 deg. C. January is the coldest month, with
temperatures averaging 1.2 deg. C.
• Panjsher: Bazarak's climate is classified as warm and temperate. The rain in
Bazarak falls mostly in the winter, with relatively little rain in the summer.
According to Köppen and Geiger, this climate is classified as Csa. The average
temperature in Bazarak is 11.3 deg. C. Precipitation here averages 647 mm. The
least amount of rainfall occurs in August. The average in this month is 3 mm. In
April, the precipitation reaches its peak, with an average of 166 mm. The
temperatures are highest on average in July, at around 22.8 deg. C. At -0.8 deg. C
on average, January is the coldest month of the year.
• Bamyan: The climate here is considered to be a local steppe climate. There is not
much rainfall in Kart-E-Sulh Village all year long. According to Köppen and
Geiger, this climate is classified as BSk. The average annual temperature in Kart-
E-Sulh Village is 6.7 deg. C. The average annual rainfall is 124 mm. The driest
month is August, with 0 mm of rain. In February, the precipitation reaches its
peak, with an average of 21 mm. July is the warmest month of the year. The
temperature in July averages 17.7 deg. C. At -6.6 deg. C on average, January is
the coldest month of the year.
• Ghazni: Jadna's climate is a local steppe climate. There is little rainfall
throughout the year. This climate is considered to be BSk according to the
Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The temperature here averages 10.5 deg.
C. Precipitation is the lowest in June, with an average of 0 mm. The greatest
amount of precipitation occurs in February, with an average of 53 mm. At an
average temperature of 24.8 deg. C, July is the hottest month of the year. The
lowest average temperatures in the year occur in January when it is around -7.5
deg. C.
• Wardak: Here, the climate is cold and temperate. In winter, there is much more
rainfall in Maidan Shar than in summer. This climate is considered to be Dsc
according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. In Maidan Shar, the
average annual temperature is 8.8 deg. C. Precipitation here averages 373 mm.
Precipitation is the lowest in June, with an average of 0 mm. Most precipitation
falls in March, with an average of 95 mm. At an average temperature of 21.2
deg. C, July is the hottest month of the year. In January, the average temperature
is -6.4 deg. C. It is the lowest average temperature of the whole year.
In the CACZ, in the parts of Kabul, Parwan, and Ghazni provinces there is mid-latitude steppe
and desert climate. In part of Kapisa, Panjshir and Wardak the climate is Mediterranean.

35
2.1.3 Details of crops
CACZ is ideal for producing cereal crops, fruits, and vegetables. The details of category,
planting month and harvesting month for each major crop are given in Table 2.5. For each
crop, the details of cultivated area for each province are given in Table 2.6. Wheat is the main
crop cultivated in the CACZ. It covers more cultivable land than any other crop. Ghazni and
Bamyan farmers cultivate wheat as a major crop. Wardak is famous for producing apples for
markets inside the country and neighboring countries. The other main crops cultivated in
CACZ are maize, barley, grape, apricot, peach, pomegranate, almond, and potato.
Table 2.5: The major crops of CACZ
# Crops Category Planting (Month) Harvesting (Month)
1 Wheat Cereals October June
2 Maize Cereals April July
3 Barley Cereals April June
4 Grape Fruits March September
5 Apples Fruits March September
6 Apricot Fruits March June
7 Peach Fruits March July
8 Pomegranate Fruits March September
9 Almond Nuts March September
10 Potato Vegetables April September
Source: AMU-MAIL, 2016
Table 2.6: CACZ crops (Area in Hectares)
No
. Aspect
Kabul Kapisa Parwan Panjsher Bamyan Ghazni Wardak Total
1 Wheat 36350 17450 33170 6082 46500 98280 18020 255852
2 Maize 700 2400 11350 1090 1885 2180 950 20555
3 Barley 400 1100 423 62 3800 5820 1000 12605
4 Grape 10690 108 7281 0 32 9904 66 28081
5 Apple 2525 360 499 300 330 981 3787 8782
6 Apricot 276 137 492 123 137 2185 1377 4727
7 Peach 375 48 464 19 28 303 117 1354
8 Pomegranate 0 600 100 0 0 0 0 700
9 Almond 52 90 280 65 30 400 100 1017
10 Potato 887 200 130 400 10486 4400 3200 19703
Ref: AMU-MAIL, 2016

36
2.2 Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone
2.2.1 Geography
The Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone (EACZ) occupies 25067.75 sq. km. from a total 655,000 sq.
km. area of Afghanistan (Figure. 2.4). It is located between 33°56'30'' N to 36°02'39'' N and
69°28'47'' E to 71°40'43'' E. It consists of the four provinces: Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, and
Nuristan (Figure. 2.5).
Figure. 2.4: Map of Afghanistan with Eastern agro-climate zone.

37
Figure. 2.5: Map of East agro-climate zone with provinces
Elevation: The elevation details of each province are given in Table 2.7. It can be observed that
Nuristan is located at a higher elevation level, i.e., 2762 meters, as compared to other areas in
the EACZ. Nangarhar (Jalalabad at 573 meters) and Laghman (Mehterlam at 768 meters) are
located at the lower elevation levels. On the whole, the minimum elevation is 379 meters,
maximum elevation is 5929 meters, and the average is 3035.95 meters.
Land use: The land use details, province-wise, are given in Table 2.8. The details of arable land
are given in Table 2.9. Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas 2012, the provinces of EACZ
have only 6.8 % (16,959 sq. km.) of arable land from the total 25067.75 sq. km. area.
Nangarhar province has more arable land among all the provinces in EACZ.
Population details: EACZ has a total of 2,262,661 population, which makes 8.3 % of the
country total population. The population details are given in Table 2.10. Eleven percent
(249929) are living in the urban area, and 89 % (2012732) are living in the rural area.
Table 2.7: Details of geographical area, main cities, and elevation in EACZ
Province Geographical Area (in sq. km.) Main City /
Town
Elevation above mean sea level (in
Meters)
Kunar 4,848.34 Asmar 934
Laghman 3,835.50 Mehterlam 768
Nangarhar 7,397.20 Jalalabad 573
Nuristan 8,986.71 Kamdesh 1965
Parun 2762

38
Table 2.8: Land use of EACZ, province wise (in sq. km.)
LU/ classes Kunar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Total area
Geographical Area 4848.34 3835.5 7397.2 8986.71 25,067.75
Irrigated 268.88 221.26 1074.52 94.54 1659.2
Rain-fed 19.39 0.59 11.25 5.47 36.7
Forest & Shrubs 2909.43 843.23 644.96 2248.01 6645.63
Fruit Trees 1.27 4.76 28.89 9.56 44.48
Vineyards 0.1 0.66 9.74 0.01 10.51
Barren Land 130.83 694.58 2428.31 555.66 3809.38
Sand cover 4.45 0 0 4.45
Range Land 1435.71 1975.04 2810.32 5873.06 12094.13
Permanent Snow 0.01 0.56 167.85 168.42
Built Up 15.35 19.01 106.7 1.35 142.41
Water bodies & Marshland 67.38 71.93 281.95 31.21 452.47
Total 9,696.68 7,671.02 14,794.40 17,973.43 50,135.53
Source: Land Cover Atlas of Afghanistan, FAO, December, 2012.
Table 2.9: EACZ Arable land (in sq. km.)
Provinces Kunar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Total
Geographical Area 4848.34 3835.5 7397.2 8986.71 25067.75
Arable Land (Rainfed) 19.39 0.59 11.25 5.47 36.7
Arable Land (Irrigated) 268.88 221.26 1074.52 94.54 1659.2
Arable Land (Total) 288.27 221.85 1085.77 100.01 1695.9
Rank of the total Arable Land among
provinces
2 3 1 4
Arable Land in Percentage of the
geographical area of respective
provinces
5.9 5.8 14.7 1.1 6.8
Table 2.10: EACZ population (numbers)
EACZ Provinces/ Population Rural Urban
Kunar 213250 13952
Laghman 440420 5168
Nangarhar 1286579 230809
Nuristan 72483
Total 2012732 249929
Total EACZ (Rural+ Urban) 2262661
The population of EACZ in percentage as compared to Afghanistan. 8.3
Source; CSO, 2015/16
2.2.2 Climate
• Kunar: Asadabad is the main center of Kunar. Asadabad's climate is classified as
warm and temperate. The rain in Asadabad falls mostly in the winter, with

39
relatively little rain in the summer. This location is classified as Csa by Köppen
and Geiger. The average annual temperature is 19.4 deg. C in Asadabad.
Precipitation here averages to 532 mm.
• Laghman: The climate in Mehterlam the center of Laghman province is referred
to as a local steppe climate. During the year there is little rainfall. The climate
here is classified as BSh by the Köppen-Geiger system. The average temperature
in Mehterlam is 19.2 deg. C. The rainfall here averages 355 mm.
• Nangarhar: Jalalabad has a desert climate. There is virtually no rainfall during the
year. This location is classified as BWh by Köppen and Geiger. The average
temperature in Jalalabad is 21.5 deg. C. About 206 mm of precipitation falls
annually.
• Nuristan: In Nuristan, the climate of Wecir Hamlet is as such: Here, the climate
is cold and temperate. The winter months are much rainier than the summer
months in Wecir Hamlet. According to Köppen and Geiger, this climate is
classified as Dsb. The temperature here averages 7.3 deg. C. The average annual
rainfall is 917 mm.
Overall, for EACZ, the climate is Mediterranean in parts of Kunar province and the climate is
tropical and subtropical steppe in parts of Laghman. In parts of Nangarhar, the climate is
Tropical and subtropical desert climate.
EACZ is ideal for producing cereal crops, fruits, and vegetables. The details of category,
crop, the details of cultivated area for each province are given in Table 2.12. Wheat is the
main crop covering more cultivable land than other crops. The major crop for Nangarhar and
Kunar farmers is wheat. The other main crops cultivated in EACZ are wheat, rice, maize,
barley, citrus, peach, olive, walnuts, onion, and potato.
Table 2.11: The major crops of EACZ
# Crops Category Planting (Month) Harvesting
(Month)
Remarks
1 Wheat Cereals November May
2 Rice Cereals June November
3 Maize Cereals July October
4 Barley Cereals November May
5 Citrus Fruits March January
6 Peach Fruits March May
7 Olive Fruits March October Olive is only grown
in Eastern zone
(Ref: CSO,
2015/16)
8 Walnuts Nuts March September
9 Onion Vegetables February June
10 Potato Vegetables January June

40
Table 2.12: EACZ crops (Area in hectares)
No Aspect Kunar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Total
1 Wheat 16070 16200 72390 4630 109290
2 Maize 9000 5000 15595 13500 43095
3 Barley 755 479 170 47 1451
4 Rice 4101 7390 8026 19517
5 Orange 150 610 1772 0 2532
6 Peach 5 7 44 20 76
7 Olive in total EACZ, not province wise 2200
8 Walnuts 31 29 0 93 153
9 Onion 65 890 669 100 1724
10 Potato 10 170 487 500 1167
Ref: AMU-MAIL, 2016/ Source for olive: CSO, 2015/16

41
2.3 Northern Agro-Climatic Zone
2.3.1 Geography
The Northern agro-climatic zone (NACZ) occupies 76,732.98 sq. km. from a total 655,000 sq.
km. area of Afghanistan (Figure. 2.6). It is located between 34°52'1'' N to 37°33'20'' N and
63°52'52'' E to 68°32'37'' E. It consists of the five provinces, they are Faryab, Balkh, Jawzjan,
Samangan, and Sar-e-pul (Figure. 2.7).
Figure. 2.6: Map of Afghanistan with Northern Agro-Climate zone

42
Figure. 2.7: Map of Northern Agro-Climate zone with Provinces
Elevation: The elevation details of each province are given in Table 2.13. It can be observed
that Samangan (i.e., Aibak) is located at a higher elevation, i.e., 960 meters, as compared to
other areas in the NACZ. Faryab (Andkhoy at 319 meters) and Balkh (334 meters) are located
at lower elevations. On the whole, the minimum elevation is 229 meters, the maximum
elevation is 4238 meters, and the average is 2225 meters.
Land use: Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas 2012, the provinces of NACZ have only 27.2
% (20854.96 sq. km.) arable land from the total 76732.98 sq. km. area. The land use details,
province-wise are given in Table 2.14. The details of arable land are given in Table 2.15.
Faryab province has more arable land among all the provinces in NACZ.
Population: The population details are provided in Table 2.16. The population of NACZ is
3811566, which constitutes 14.1 % of the country’s total population. Twenty-one percent
(803148) are living in the urban area, and 79 % (3008418) are living in the rural area.

43
Table 2.13: Details of geographical area, main cities, and elevation in NACZ
km.)
Main City / Town Elevation above mean sea level
(in Meters)
Balkh 16,769.21 Maza-e-sharif 375
Balkh 334
Faryab 20662.25 Andkhoy 319
Maymana 878
Jawzjan 11,116.09 Shiberghan 362
Samangan 12,912.59 Aibak 960
Sar-e-pul 15,272.84 Sar e pul 622
Source: CSO, socio-economic and demographic survey, 2012 and Wikipedia and Wikipedia
Table 2.14: Land use of NACZ, province wise (in sq. km.)
LU/ classes Balkh Faryab Jawzjan Samangan Sar-e-pul Total area
Geographical Area 16,769.21 20,662.25 11,116.09 12,912.59 15,272.84 76,732.98
Irrigated 2,668.07 1,185.86 1,885.67 275.31 527.79 6,542.70
Rain-fed 2,683.64 4,305.86 1,372.83 2,818.56 3,131.37 14,312.26
Forest & Shrubs 62.49 65.83 10.33 118.04 52.74 309.43
Fruit Trees 41.56 25.72 2.38 16.97 14.25 100.88
Vineyards 7.21 69.02 4.94 5.52 72.78 159.47
Barren Land 741.54 228.03 128.90 788.83 458.01 2,345.31
Sand cover 4,805.10 2,968.57 5,080.32 0.00 0.00 12,853.99
Range Land 4,881.25 11,477.53 2,179.09 8,797.34 10,884.17 38,219.38
Permanent Snow 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Built Up 225.34 130.46 94.80 45.31 63.14 559.05
Water bodies &
Marshland
653.01 205.38 356.84 46.72 68.59 1,330.54
Total 16,769.21 20,662.26 11,116.10 12,912.60 15,272.84 76,733.01
Table 2.15: NACZ arable land (in sq. km.)
Provinces Balkh Faryab Jawzjan Samangan Sar-e-pul Total
Geographical Area 16769.21 20662.25 11116.09 12912.59 15272.84 76,732.98
Arable Land (Rainfed) 2683.64 4305.86 1372.83 2818.56 3131.37 14312.26
Arable Land (Irrigated) 2668.07 1185.86 1885.67 275.31 527.79 6,542.70
Arable Land (Total) 5351.71 5491.72 3258.5 3093.87 3659.16 20854.96
Rank of the total Arable Land
among provinces
2 1 3 4 5
Arable Land in Percentage of
the geographical area of
respective provinces
31.9 26.6 29.3 24.0 24.0

44
Table 2.16: NACZ population (numbers)
NACZ Provinces/ Population Rural Urban
Balkh 834878 490781
Faryab 875680 122467
Jawzjan 423860 116395
Samangan 358216 29712
Sar-e-pul 515784 43793
Total 3008418 803148
Total NACZ (Rural+ Urban) 3811566
The population of NACZ in percentage as compared to Afghanistan. 14.1
2.3.2 Climate
• Balkh: The climate here is considered to be a local steppe climate. During the
year, there is little rainfall in Balkh. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is
BSk. In Balkh, the average annual temperature is 17.4 deg. C. The rainfall here
averages 176 mm.
• Faryab: The climate in Maymana is warm and temperate. In winter, there is
much more rainfall in Maymana than in summer. The climate here is classified as
Csa by the Köppen-Geiger system. The temperature here averages 14.3 deg. C.
The rainfall here averages 372 mm.
• Jawzjan: Sheberghan is influenced by the local steppe climate. In Sheberghan,
there is little rainfall throughout the year. The Köppen-Geiger climate
classification is BSk. The average annual temperature in Sheberghan is 16.6 deg.
C. The average annual rainfall is 213 mm.
• Samangan: Samangan's climate is a local steppe climate. In Samangan, there is
little rainfall throughout the year. This climate is considered to be BSk according
to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The average temperature in
Samangan is 14.0 deg. C. In a year; the average rainfall is 277 mm.
• Sar-e-pul: The climate in Sar-e-pul is referred to as a local steppe climate. During
the year there is little rainfall. According to Köppen and Geiger, this climate is
classified as BSk. The average annual temperature in Sar-e-pul is 15.4 deg. C.
The rainfall here averages 233 mm.
Overall in parts of Northern zone, such as Balkh, Jawzjan, Samangan and Sar-e-Pul, the
climate is mid-latitude steppe and desert climate. In parts of Faryab province it has the
Mediterranean climate.
The NACZ is ideal for producing cereal crops, fruits, and vegetables. The details of category,
crop, the details of cultivated area for each province are given in Table 2.18. Wheat is the
main crop cultivated in NACZ covering more cultivable land than other crops. Balkh, Faryab

45
and Samangan farmers produce enough wheat. The other main crops cultivated in NACZ are
wheat, maize, barley, rice, grape, melon, cotton, pomegranate, almond, and onion.
Table 2.17 The major crops of NACZ
1 Wheat Cereals February June
2 Maize Cereals July October
3 Barley Cereals February May
4 Rice Cereals July November
5 Grape Fruits March July
6 Melon Fruits March
7 Cotton Industrial crop May September
8 Pomegranate Fruits March October
9 Almond Nuts March August
10 Onion Vegetables April June
Table 2.18: NACZ crops (Area in hectares)
No Aspect Balkh Faryab Jawzjan Samangan Sar-e-pul Total
1 Wheat 188450 152000 53380 109530 58020 561380
2 Maize 12300 80 310 200 350 13240
3 Barley 25600 16000 15101 3970 9850 70521
4 Rice 8540 0 0 0 700 9240
5 Grape 584.98 7123.85 557 560.79 7398 16225.08
6 Apple 549 481 25 18 266 1339
7 Melon 2142 5665 2039 970 2590 13406
8 Cotton 21000 3 717 30 130 21880
9 Almond 1537 50 120 1428 850 3985
10 Onion 800 50 100 170 22 1142
Ref: AMU-MAIL, 2016

46
2.4 North-Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone
2.4.1 Geography
North-Eastern Agro-Climatic Zone (NEACZ) is a mountainous area. It occupies 83534.01 sq.
km. from a total 655,000 sq. km. area of Afghanistan (Figure. 2.8). It is located between
35°00'00'' N to 38°29'57'' N and 68°00'00'' E to 74°53'46'' E. It consists of the four
provinces, they are Badakhshan, Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar (Figure. 2.9).
Figure. 2.8: Map of Afghanistan with North-Eastastern agro-climatic zone

47
Figure. 2.9: Map of North-Eastern agro-climatic zone with Provinces
Elevation: The details of elevation are given in Table 2.20. Badakhshan (Ashkasham) is located
at a higher elevation, i.e., 3037 meters, as compared to other areas in the NEACZ. Kunduz at
(391meters) and Baghlan (552 meters) are located at lower elevations. On the whole the
minimum elevation is 283 meters, the maximum elevation is 6986 meters, and the average
elevation is 3483.43 meters.
Land use: The land use details province-wise are given in Table 2.21. The details of arable land
are given in Table 2.22. Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas, 2012, the provinces of NEACZ
constitute only 17 % (14075.94 sq. km.) of arable land from the total 83,534 sq. km. area.
Takhar province has more arable land among all the province.
Population: The population details are given in Table 2.23. The population of NEACZ is
3855110, which constitutes 14.2% of the country’s total population. Sixteen percent
population (610042) are living in the urban area, and 84 % (3245068) population are living in
the rural area.

48
Table 2.21: Land use of NEACZ, province wise (in sq. km.)
LU/ classes Badakhshan Baghlan Kunduz Takhar Total area
Geographical Area 43,460.08 17,803.30 9,951.14 12,319.49 83,534.01
Irrigated 555.98 1,012.12 1,524.64 861.65 3954.39
Rain-fed 3,175.70 1,734.11 960.12 4,251.62 10,121.55
Forest & Shrubs 146.9 638.75 22.68 216.73 1025.06
Fruit Trees 88.79 33.52 6.49 30.16 158.96
Vineyards 0 1.35 1.06 2.41
Barren Land 8,431.96 1,346.02 2,692.08 796.56 13,266.62
Sand cover 1.21 2,277.45 0.00 2278.66
Range Land 26,989.33 12,036.98 1,869.22 5,258.68 46,154.21
Permanent Snow 3,242.27 658.99 0.00 234.11 4,135.37
Built Up 52.81 128.61 111.97 138.85 432.24
Water bodies & Marshland 775.14 214.2 485.13 530.06 2,004.53
Total 43,460.09 17,803.30 9,951.13 12,319.48 83,534.00
Table 2.22: NEACZ Arable land (in sq. km.)
Provinces Badakhshan Baghlan Kunduz Takhar Total
Geographical Area 43,460.08 17803.3 9,951.14 12,319.49 83,534.01
Arable Land (Rainfed) 3,175.70 1,734.11 960.12 4,251.62 10,121.55
Arable Land (Irrigated) 555.98 1,012.12 1,524.64 861.65 3954.39
Arable Land (Total) 3,731.68 2,746.23 2484.76 5,113.27 14,075.94
Rank of the total Arable Land among
provinces
2 3 4 1
Arable Land in Percentage of the
geographical area of respective
provinces
8.6 15.4 25.0 41.5
Table 2.20: Details of geographical area, main cities, and elevation in NEACZ
km.)
Main City / Town Elevation above mean sea
level (in Meters)
Badakhshan 43,460.08 Ashkasham 3037
Faizabad 1225
Baghlan 17803.3 Baghlan 552
Nahrin 1156
Pul-e-Khumry 684
Kunduz 9,951.14 Kunduz 391
Takhar 12,319.49 Taluqan 788

49
Table 2.23: NEACZ population (numbers)
CACZ Population Rural Urban
Badakhshan 913361 37592
Baghlan 725793 184991
Kunduz 752795 257242
Takhar 853119 130217
Total 3245068 610042
Total NEACZ (Rural+ Urban) 3855110
The population of NEACZ in percentage as compared to
Afghanistan.
14.2
2.4.2 Climate
• Badakhshan: Badakhshan has many different climates, but is dominated by Dsb
(Table 2.19).
o Darwaz: In Darwaz, the climate is cold and temperate. The winter months
are much rainier than the summer months in Darwaz. This location is
classified as Dsb by Köppen and Geiger. The average temperature in Darwaz
is 5.0 deg. C. Precipitation here averages 664 mm.
o Faizabad: The climate in Fayzabad is warm and temperate. The rain in
Fayzabad falls mostly in the winter, with relatively little rain in the summer.
The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is Csa. The average annual
temperature in Fayzabad is 13.5 deg. C. The average annual rainfall is 497
mm.
o Baharak: In Baharak, the climate is warm and temperate. The winter months
are much rainier than the summer months in Baharak. According to Köppen
and Geiger, this climate is classified as Csa. The average annual temperature
in Baharak is 12.8 deg. C. In a year; the average rainfall is 453 mm.
o Wakhan: The climate here is considered to be a local steppe climate. There is
little rainfall throughout the year. This climate is considered to be BSk
according to the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. The average
temperature in Wakhan is 7.0 deg. C. The average rainfall in a year is 230
mm.
Table 2.19: Climate classification
Classification Count Köppen-Geiger Examples
Warm, humid continental climate 6 Dsb Darwaz, Shighnan, Arakht, Eshkashem,
Zebak
Hot-summer Mediterranean climate 4 Csa Fayzabad, Kwahan, Keshem, Kishim
Hot humid continental climate 4 Dsa Baharak, Jurm, Ragh, Shahr-i-Buzurg
Cold semi-arid climates 2 BSk Wakhan, Tem-Demogan
• Baghlan: Baghlan is influenced by the local steppe climate. There is little rainfall
throughout the year. According to Köppen and Geiger, this climate is classified

50
as BSk. The average temperature in Baghlan is 15.9 deg. C. The rainfall here
averages 278 mm.
• Kunduz: The climate in Kunduz is referred to as a local steppe climate. There is
not much rainfall in Kunduz all year long. The climate here is classified as BSk
by the Köppen-Geiger system. The temperature here averages 16.8 deg. C.
Precipitation here averages 325 mm.
• Takhar
o Taloqan: The climate here is considered to be a local steppe climate. There is
little rainfall throughout the year. The climate here is classified as BSk by the
Köppen-Geiger system. The average annual temperature is 15.4 deg. C in
Taloqan. In a year, the average rainfall is 434 mm.
o Chah Ab: The climate here is mild and warm and temperate. The winter
months are much rainier than the summer months in Chah Ab. The climate
here is classified as Csa by the Köppen-Geiger system. The average annual
temperature in Chah Ab is 13.9 deg. C. The average annual rainfall is 527
mm.
Overall, the climate is varying in the North-Eastern zone due to its topography. The climate is
Mediterranean climate and mid-latitude steppe and desert climate in parts of Badakhshan,
Baghlan, Kunduz and Takhar provinces.
The details of category, planting month and harvesting month for each major crop are given in
Table 2.24. For each crop, the details of cultivated area for each province are given in Table
2.25. Wheat is the major crop cultivated in NEACZ. Rice and barley crops are other major
crops.
Table 2.24: The major crops of NEACZ
1 Wheat Cereals March July
2 Maize Cereals May September
3 Barley Cereals March June
4 Rice Cereals May September
5 Water Melon Vegetables March September
6 Cotton Industrial crop April September
7 Apple Fruits March July
8 Melon Vegetables March September
9 Almond Nuts March August
10 Potato Vegetables April September

51
Table 2.25: NEACZ crops (Area in hectares)
No Aspect Badakhshan Baghlan Kunduz Takhar Total
1 Wheat 120560 95240 186910 124810 527520
2 Maize 150 700 2400 3400 6650
3 Barley 4740 8500 2079 31493 46812
4 Rice 2236 19712 29246 18849 70043
5 Water Melon 0 3130 2612 10936 16678
6 Cotton 0 1420 960 3882 6262
7 Apple 961 410 175 1352 2898
8 Melon 50 5124 6085 5259 16518
9 Almond 280 1274 1221 478 3253
10 Potato 440 1920 180 2100 4640

52
2.5 Southern Agro-Climatic Zone
2.5.1 Geography
Southern Agro-Climatic Zone (SACZ) occupies 32876.33 sq. km. from a total 655,000 sq. km.
area of Afghanistan (Figure. 2.10). It is located between 31°36'25'' N to 34°22'19'' N and
67°48'29'' E to 70°19'42'' E. SACZ consists of the four provinces: Khost, Logar, Paktika and
Paktya (Figure. 2.11).
Figure. 2.10: Map of Afghanistan with Southern agro-climate zone

53
Figure. 2.11: Map of Southern agro-climate zone with provinces
Elevation: The elevation details are given in Table 2.26. Paktya is located at a higher elevation,
i.e., Gardez 2294 meters, as compared to other areas in the SACZ. Khost (1178 meters) and

54
Logar (Pul-e `Alam at 1931 meters) are located at lower elevations. On the whole the minimum
elevation is 883 meters, maximum elevation is 4723 meters, and average is 2759.57 meters.
Land use: The land use details, province-wise are given in Table 2.17. The details of arable
land are given in Table 2.28. Based on Afghanistan land cover atlas 2012, the provinces of
SACZ constitute only 10.6 % (3500.51 sq. km.) arable land from the total 32876.33 sq. km.
geographical area. Paktika province constitutes more arable land among all the provinces in
SACZ.
Population: The population details of SACZ are given in Table 2.29. The population of SACZ is
1,953,356, which makes 7.2 % of the country total population. The SACZ is dominated by
rural population. Two and half percent (49348) are living in the urban area and 97.5 %
(1904008) are living in the rural area.
Table 2.26: Details of geographical area, main cities, and elevation in SACZ
Province Geographical Area (in sq. km.) Main City / Town Elevation above mean sea level (in Meters)
Khost 4,284.33 Khost 1178
Logar 4,395.00 Pul-e `Alam 1931
Paktika 19,067.00 Sharan 2141
Paktya 5,130.00 Gardez 2294
Table 2.27: Land use of SACZ province wise (in sq. km.)
LU/ classes Khost Logar Paktika Paktya Total area
Geographical Area(sq. km.) 4284.33 4395 19067 5130 32,876.33
Irrigated 516.72 450.17 1405.47 660.44 3032.8
Rain-fed 25.86 223.56 129.6 88.69 467.71
Forest & Shrubs 1182.4 145.98 3066.24 990.43 5385.05
Fruit Trees 0.71 13.14 21.32 7.15 42.32
Vineyards 0 19.39 8.42 2.06 29.87
Barren Land 121.26 822.23 2236.21 44.23 3223.93
Sand cover 0 17.82 0 17.82
Range Land 2285.39 2651.55 11834.58 3263.01 20034.53
Permanent Snow 0 0 0 0 0
Built Up 65.55 45.5 89.49 34.19 234.73
Water bodies & Marshland 86.45 23.48 257.85 39.8 407.58
Total 8,568.67 8,790.00 38,134.00 10,260.00 65,752.67

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