Producing a Perfect PV Fleet Forecast At What Cost?
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The document discusses the costs associated with producing a perfect solar power forecast. It presents results from the SolarAnywhere forecasting model across different spatial scales and time horizons. The key finding is that achieving very high forecast accuracy requires significant costs for energy storage and curtailment. Improving forecast accuracy beyond a certain point provides diminishing returns due to these additional expenses.
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Producing a Perfect PV Fleet Forecast At What Cost?
- 1. PRODUCING A PERFECT PV FLEET FORECAST AT WHAT COST? Richard Perez, ASRC 6th PV Performance Modeling Workshop Freiburg, Germany
- 2. SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSE Forecast Measure Probabilistic metrics P50P90 © R. Perez & et al.
- 3. Deterministic metrics: MBE, MAE, RMSE Probabilistic metrics “Perfect forecast” metric SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA Forecast Measure © R. Perez & et al.
- 4. SolarAnywhere V4 --- NEW YORK – 24 HA Forecast Measure PV Fleets Load forecasts © R. Perez & et al.
- 5. © R. Perez & et al.
- 6. One year of data SolarAnywhere V4 Cloud motion vector GFS NDFD ECMWF HRRR Validation Single point : SURFARD Extended area: Satellite RMSE © R. Perez & et al.
- 7. Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York)7x7 (~ size of California) Bondville RESULTS Hour-ahead © R. Perez & et al.
- 8. Bondville Desert Rock RESULTS Day-ahead Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York)7x7 (~ size of California) © R. Perez & et al.
- 9. Desert Rock RESULTS Single point2X2 (~Size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York)7x7 (~ size of California) Hour-ahead © R. Perez & et al.
- 10. Desert Rock RESULTS Day-ahead Single point2X2 (~ size of Massachusetts)4X4 (~ size of New York)7x7 (~ size of California) © R. Perez & et al.
- 11. MAPE normalized to installed capacity Region dimension (km) © R. Perez & et al.
- 12. BONDVILLE HOUR-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State) SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS BONDVILLE DAY-AHEAD 4x4 REGION (~ New York State) © R. Perez & et al.
- 13. SOLARANYWHERE UNDERLYING MODELS %RMSE %MAE SolarAnywhere v4 %MAE ECMWF © R. Perez & et al.
- 14. Cost of a perfect forecast?Hour ahead PV Curtailment Battery cost ($/PV-kW) © R. Perez & et al.
- 15. Cost of a perfect forecast?24 hrs. ahead PV Curtailment Battery cost ($/PV-kW) © R. Perez & et al.
- 16. Cost of a perfect forecast?Model accuracy matters Thank You © R. Perez & et al.
- 18. HIGH PV PENETRATION PARADIGM STORAGE LOAD SHAPINGCURTAILMENT GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION Cost of a perfect forecast? © R. Perez & et al. Perfect forecast operations
- 19. Hanford Desert Rock Goodwin Creek Penn State Bondville Sioux Falls Boulder Fort Peck NSRDB © Perez et al.V1 V2 V3 V4
- 21. HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST 1998 6 days ahead V1 V2 V3 V4 Solar Energy Forecast Validation for Extended Areas Economic Impact of Forecast Accuracy
- 22. HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST Cloud motion NDFD GLOBAL SCALE MODELS • NCEP GFS • ECMWF CONTINENTAL SCALE MODELS • NAM HIGH RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION MODELS • RAP • HRRR Operational NWP models 1998 6 days ahead
- 23. HISTORICAL DATA REAL TIME FORECAST 1998 6 days ahead