Predicted impacts of climate change on crops include major yield declines and the loss of conservation lands as agriculture geographically shifts with changing temperature and rainfall patterns. Such projections, however, rarely include options for growers to change their practices in step with climate change. Negative impacts of climate change on crops could be mitigated by adaptation strategies, including exploiting existing diversity within crops. Here I review this possibility for winegrapes, with a focus globally and locally in the Okanagan winegrowing region. Globally, winegrapes possess tremendous diversity across their 1,100 planted cultivars (varieties) in traits that affect responses to climate, such as phenology (timing of recurring seasonal events such as budburst, flowering and veraison) and drought tolerance. Shifting cultivars can help maintain most current growing regions in place given moderate levels of warming, but benefits decline at higher warming levels. Thus, cultivar diversity can greatly reduce agricultural losses globally, but its effectiveness will depend on global decisions regarding future emissions and how well the approach can be adapted to spatial and temporal scales relevant to growers. Working with growers in the Okanagan, I am developing new models at relevant local scales to predict phenology, from budburst to sugar maturity, for winegrapes. Such models can help build resilient local agricultural systems by guiding management each season and, in the longer-term, by guiding planting decisions through future projections. Beyond winegrowers in the Okanagan, this general approach may apply to diverse crops across BC (e.g., apples, cherries, blueberries).
22. Future predicted regions at 2ºC
Morales-Castilla et al.
Cultivar diversity 0°C
1 11
Cultivar diversity 2ºC
23. Future predicted regions at 2ºC
Morales-Castilla et al.
Cultivar diversity 0°C
1 11
Cultivar diversity 2ºC
Cultivar diversity more than halved projected
losses of current winegrowing areas, decreasing
areas lost from 56% to 24%.
24. Next steps
• More variety-specific
models
• Modeling winegrape
phenology for a warming
Okanagan