1. The Future of Learning (Yours) Eric Grant, LDT 05 Futurist, Edupreneur email: [email_address] twitter: senatorgrant

3. Discussion: Education in the Flat World

4. Lecture: Tools Used by the Pros

5. Activity: Scenario Development

6. Lecture: Products of the Pros

7. Discussion: What's Next?

9. Here Comes Everybody by Clay Shirky

10. Wikinomics by Dan Tapscott

11. Disrupting Class by Clayton Christensen

12. A Whole New Mind by Daniel Pink

13. Generations by Strauss and Howe

16. Futures Studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel.

17. The discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends.

18. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can often be depicted in terms of pendulum shifts The future sometimes looks like a long tail Source: Longtail.com Source: Wikipedia

19. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The S-Curve is popular for forecasting adoption of new technologies and products But the Hype Cycle is usually more accurate Source: Gartner via Wikipedia Source: Wikipedia

20. Some Fun Foresight Shapes The future can be depicted as a “cone of uncertainty” It becomes more uncertain the further out you try to look Trends that seem obvious now become wilder and more unpredictable

22. often coupled with data visualizations, such as maps

24. experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds

25. after each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments

26. participants are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of the group

27. it is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer

29. (now) plausible, but unexpectedly important situations and problems that exist in some small form in the present day, combined with narratives about where those situations may lead

31. example: How can we support continuing / lifelong learning in 2020?

32. example: How can we ensure equity and access for all students in 2020?

33. example: How can organizations maximize the potential of workers in 2020?

36. ex. What will the purpose of education be? Citizens? Workers?

37. ex: How will teachers be trained in 10 years?

38. ex: Will the world become flatter or isolated?

40. Arrange your critical uncertainties in a Cartesian plane (aka 2x2) Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid

41. Tools of the Pros: Scenario Planning Step 3: Imagine details of each quadrant Focal Issue: How can we design learning environments that ensure success for all learners in 2020? Learning Outcomes Where Learning Takes Place Any Time, Any Place In School Static Fluid Scenario B: Supply and Demand for Democracy Scenario A: America Competes Scenario C: Hot, Flat, and Crowded Scenario D: Teacher-At-Large

43. Step 5: Figure out how your (organization, institution, family, project, etc) could act most effectively in each situation

44. Step 6: Over the next year or two, watch for signs that one of these scenarios might be playing out

45. Step 7: Revise your scenarios every few years

50. First Version 2006 to 2016 (2006)

51. Second Version 2020 (March 2009)

52. Created by KnowledgeWorks Foundation and Institute for the Future

53. http://www.kwfdn.org/map

55. Amplified Organizations

56. The Maker Economy

57. Platforms for Resilience

58. A New Civic Discourse

59. Pattern Recognition

61. Annual; latest version January 2010

62. Produced by New Media Consortium and Educause Learning Intiative

63. http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Main_Page

65. The notion of collective intelligence is redefining how we think about ambiguity and imprecision

66. Experience with and affinity for games as learning tools is an increasingly universal characteristic among those entering higher education and the workforce

67. Visualization tools are making information more meaningful and insights more intuitive

68. As more than one billion phones are produced each year, mobile phones are benefiting from unprecedented innovation, driven by global competition

70. How can all of this help us?