Leuven Climate Week 2016 — The opportunity of sustainable mobility
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This is a short presentation to kick off Leuven Climate Week 2016. Or how fossil transportation systems are ripe for disruption and how sustainable transportation systems help reduce carbon and air pollution impact, but also *improve* people's mobility and lives.
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Leuven Climate Week 2016 — The opportunity of sustainable mobility
- 1. The challenge and opportunity of a low carbon economy sustainable mobility Serge de Gheldere @sergedg futureproofed.com
- 3. Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 0 2250 4500 6750 9000 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 MillionMetricTonsofCarbon Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC
- 4. Global Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuels 0 2250 4500 6750 9000 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 MillionMetricTonsofCarbon Source: U.S. Department of Energy/CDIAC
- 6. The energy trapped by man-made global warming pollution is now “…equivalent to exploding Hiroshima atomic bombs per day 365 days per year.” 400,000 James Hansen Former Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
- 7. 14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record Have Occurred Since the Year 2001 Data: NASA/GISS
- 8. 2005 2007 2002 1998 2009 2006 2012 2011 2004 2010 2013 2014 2003 2015 14 of the 15 Hottest Years on Record Have Occurred Since the Year 2001 Data: NASA/GISS
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- 16. © 2010 Julien Goldstein/The New York Times/Redux
- 17. “I had 400 acres of wheat, and now it’s all desert.” Ahmed Abdullah, Syrian farmer October 2010 © 2010 Julien Goldstein/The New York Times/Redux
- 18. Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years World Economic Forum, 2016
- 19. 1. Water crisis 2. Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation 3. Extreme weather events 4. Food crisis 5. Profound social instability Global risks of highest concern for the next 10 years World Economic Forum, 2016
- 20. All of this is now, and with ‘only’ 0.8 °C
- 21. Reduction routes A B 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 22. Yearlyemissions Reduction routes A B 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 23. Yearlyemissions Reduction routes A B Fixed yearly reduction percentage 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 24. Yearlyemissions Reduction routes A B Fixed yearly reduction percentage Fixed yearly reduction quantity 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 25. Yearlyemissions Reduction routes A B Fixed yearly reduction percentage Fixed yearly reduction quantity Delayed reduction 2020 2030 2040 2050
- 26. Emissionsperyear A B “Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions C 2010 2050 2100
- 27. Emissionsperyear A B “Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions Carbon budget C 2010 2050 2100
- 28. Emissionsperyear A B “Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions Carbon budget Budget trespass C 2010 2050 2100
- 29. Emissionsperyear A B “Overspending” on carbon budget and net negative emissions Carbon budget Budget trespass C Net negative emissions 2010 2050 2100
- 30. CO2eemissionsEU(Mton/jaar) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 -40% -95% Reduction routes to -95% in 2050 -79% -58% Europe Science
- 34. Must we change?
- 35. Can we change?
- 38. 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Global Wind Energy Capacity 1980 – Present WindCapacity(Megawatts) Data: Earth Policy Institute
- 39. 0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 Global Wind Energy Capacity 1980 – Present WindCapacity(Megawatts) Data: Earth Policy Institute
- 40. 0 € 50 € 100 € 150 € 200 € 250 € 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Onshore Wind Cost 1984 – 2014 EurosPerMegawattHour Megawatts Deployed Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
- 41. 0 € 50 € 100 € 150 € 200 € 250 € 0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Onshore Wind Cost 1984 – 2014 EurosPerMegawattHour Megawatts Deployed 1984 1990 2000 2004 2014 Data: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
- 42. $0 B $30 B $60 B $90 B 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$USBillion Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis
- 43. $0 B $30 B $60 B $90 B 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020E 2025E Global Lithium Ion Battery Market$USBillion Source: Navigant and Bernstein estimates and analysis Small Batteries Vehicle Batteries Energy Storage Systems
- 44. $500 $1.000 $1.500 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $USperkWh Data: 2014 Citigroup Large Lithium Ion Battery Cost Trend
- 45. $500 $1.000 $1.500 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 $USperkWh Data: 2014 Citigroup Large Lithium Ion Battery Cost Trend
- 48. 917 PJ =
- 49. Can we change?
- 50. Will we change?
- 51. Landbouw & Natuur 4% Industrie 14% Transport 24% Handel & diensten 26% Huishoudens 32% Huishoudens Handel & diensten Transport Industrie Landbouw & Natuur Energieproductie A B - - - - - - - - scope 1 & 2 transport van personen scope 1 & 2 televisie thuis scope 1 & 2 niet energie Fermob colors materialen & diensten transport van personen energieverbruik vaste activa vracht direct afval - water afval verpakking producten niet energetisch Future- proofed Futureproofed kg ! !"#$
- 52. The density of the Belgian highway network is far above European average Density of Highway network, km / 1000 km2 57 20 35 26 58 19 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 EU-27 15 EU-15 Luxembourg Average EU-15 UK 15 eNetherlands Germany France 17 Denmark Belgium ▪ This high density is an asset regarding logistic activities, but makes it more difficult to perform a modal switch away from road transport for passenger and goods transportation NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 53. 1976 2000
- 54. Prognose 2050 (KUL, Poelmans, 2010) In 1976 was 7,2% van de Vlaamse oppervlakte bebouwd. Eind jaren tachtig nam dat toe tot 12% en begin 2000 zaten we al aan 18%. Als de bebouwing tegen het huidige tempo doorgaat, dan zal in 2050 maar liefst 41,5% van Vlaanderen bebouwd zijn (KUL, Poelmans, 2010), … … een groot deel daarvan alleen met de auto bereikbaar, met de stedelijke leefbaarheid als eerste slachtoffer.
- 55. NOx air pollution map Europe
- 56. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 58. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 61. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 69. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 70. Question A B C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 90% 50% 13%
- 71. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13%
- 72. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Engine loss 62%
- 73. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 74. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Drivetrain loss 6% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 75. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Accessory loss 2% Drivetrain loss 6% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 76. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Braking resistance 6% Accessory loss 2% Drivetrain loss 6% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 77. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Rolling resistance 4% Braking resistance 6% Accessory loss 2% Drivetrain loss 6% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 78. Question C How much of the petrol is effectively used to move a car from A to B? 13% Aerodynamic drag 3% Rolling resistance 4% Braking resistance 6% Accessory loss 2% Drivetrain loss 6% Idling loss 17% Engine loss 62%
- 81. Well to wheel efficiencies power plants, is about 41%.21 With this efficiency, our electric car has a well-to-wheel energy efficiency of 0.83 km/MJ, still the most efficient car on the road. Of course, fuel-cell cars are also multi-fuel cars, since hydrogen can be produced from water using electricity from any source. But this is a very inefficient way to use electricity. Consider the following chart: Hydrogen Production Battery Electric Car Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 86% Fuel-Cell Car Grid-to-Motor Efficiency = 25% Electricity from Grid Inverter & Electric Motor in Car Li-ion Battery 93% efficient H2O Electrolysis 70% efficient H2 Compressor 90% efficient H2 Fuel Cell 40% efficient Electricity from Grid Charger 93% efficient Inverter & Electric Motor in Car It is obvious that when we start with electricity (however it is produced), it is hard to beat the 86% efficiency of the currently available lithium-ion batteries and chargers. Even when we assume extremely high efficiencies for electrolysis, compression, and the fuel cell, the fuel-cell car requires more than three times as much electricity from the grid to drive the same distance. 50% 31%
- 84. 18%
- 90. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
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- 96. 5 levers for decarbonising Belgian transport sector 1.Reduce transport kms 2.Increase occupancy level 3.Modal shift 4.Increase efficiency 5.Use renewable energy Klimaat.be NAAR EEN KOOLSTOFARME MAATSCHAPPIJ Scenario’s voor een koolstofarm België tegen 2050 Samenvatting van de bevindingen
- 97. We are the people who could be shaping the next industrial revolution.
- 99. ‘Vuile gammele treinen. Stinkende, troosteloze files waar je ziek van wordt. Willen we dat nu echt? Nog altijd?’ Milieupoliticoloog Hans Bruyninckx (49), sinds vijf maanden hoofd van het Europees Milieu Agentschap in Kopenhagen, over de oppeppende kracht van schone lucht, helder water en kennis over de opwarmende wereldbol. tekst: Barbara Debusschere foto’s: Thomas Sweertvaegher Choose your future