End of days for TV? Following an opportunity to particpate in BroadcastAsia last week here in Singapore, I took a gander on making a few predictions on what was in store for Asia given trends in television and the onset of online, interactive alternatives: 1) Asia will leverage its broadband roll-out in order to be among the world’s first in delivering new video-telecom, e-government, and energy-management services 2) A new breed of interactive programming that combines gaming with television-style drama will dominate the Korean and Japanese entertainment landscape 3) China will struggle with these changes; intermittently clamping down then opening up, before the real revolution in digital media takes off 4) Indian software developers will unfurl new concepts in virtual (re: “cloud”) computing that lead to server and network optimization and higher levels of operational efficiency 5) Asian broadcast & cable operators will be vying for a place alongside the telecommunications’ companies who start offering bundled voice, broadband and interactive entertainment services

1. Digital in a Downturn
Broadcasting at a Crossroads
Steve Stine
June 2009
Human Capital Management
Talent Retention
Leadership Consulting
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2. The Future of TV?
Predicting the demise of TV is nothing new…
“By all measures, TV was a superb technology for its time.
Indeed, its presence and properties defined the time. But
now its time is over. The television age is giving way to the
much richer, interactive technologies of the computer age.”
- George Gilder (Life After Television, 1994)
”The growth of personal computers is happening so rapidly that
the future open-architecture television is the PC, period…In
other words, there is no TV-set industry in the future. It is
nothing ore or less than a computer industry; displays filled
with tons of memory and lots of processing power.”
- Nicholas Negroponte (Being Digital, 1995)
Yet, TV hangs on…and some would argue, even thrives in a climate
loaded with new media and gadgetry…
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3. Television Perceptions Through Time
“Television is chewing gum for the eyes.”
- Frank Lloyd Wright (American architect and commentator)
”Pictures are for entertainment, messages should be delivered by Western
Union.”
- A. Samuel Goldwyn (American film producer)
“The media is too concentrated, too few people own too much. There's really five
companies that control 90 percent of what we read, see and hear. It's not
healthy.”
- Ted Turner (media mogul)
“Television is more interesting than people. If it were not, we would have people
standing in the corners of our rooms.”
- Alan Corenk (comedian)
“Television is an anesthetic for the pain of the modern world.”
- unknown
“Whoever controls the media, controls the mind.”
- Jim Morrison (musician)
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4. Is the Sun Setting on Television?
The TV industry is still rife with
commercial and technical issues:
Broadcast & Cable operators still
control the content levers
The advertising model is geared to
encourage TV spend above and beyond
all other mediums
Interactivity is technologically limited
and commercially discouraged
User interface (re: the remote control)
is clumsy and obsolete
Operators are reluctant to aggressively
bundle add-ons such as consoles, sling
boxes, or others, concerned that
consumers will reduce standard viewing
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5. The Broadcast & Cable Providers’ Quandary
How do I drive How can I anticipate How do I grow my
service & channel fickle viewer tastes advertising revenue
loyalty? & preferences? base?
What service
How can I ensure bundles are most
that consumer free attractive to each
time is spent consumer segment
watching TV? and why?
What can I do to
What kind of new How do I balance
counter growing
media strategy distribution charges
consumer interest in
could best reinforce against household
Web video &
regular viewership? penetration?
programming?
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6. The New Paradigm
Three interdependent phenomenon are aligning to
produce a new culture of entertainment wants & needs
1. Content – traditionally generated by a
small group of media elite is giving way
to an increasing amount of independent
and user-generated product CONTENT
2. Bandwidth – the lynchpin to Web video
– is expanding at a record pace, driving
user adoption of Web video
3. Community – Facebook, Linked-in,
Twitter, and many other Internet sub- BANDWIDTH COMMUNITY
cultures are demonstrating the “power
of the collective” and challenging the
status quo
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7. Content
Six primary applications are driving change:
1. YouTube is the single largest source for video viewing on the Web,
representing 40+ percent of all Web video viewing
2. Video Conferencing will explode as the killer application in coming years.
3. Amateur Video from more than 500 million digital camera owners around
the world who take, store, and share digital photos and video on their PCs
4. Motion Pictures - Netflix, Blockbuster, Apple, Hulu, and many others are
creating new, inexpensive and alternative means of delivering HD-quality
films to TVs, PCs, and mobile phones
5. Online Gaming, underpinned by new graphic processing power, global
gamers represent a fast-growing and heavy-user segment
6. IPTV, backed by telcos who see the writing on the wall, less they invest
now and diversify away from basic voice communication services.
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8. Bandwidth
“The U.S. Internet of 2015 will be at least 50 times larger than it was in 2006…
These changes will entail a total new investment of some US$137 billion in the
worldwide Internet infrastructure by 2010.”
- “Estimating the Exaflood” Discovery Institute, Jan 2008
“The number of servers in the U.S. nearly quintupled from 1997 to 2007.”
- International Herald Tribune, June 15, 2009
“More than 200 million users have uploaded more than 15 billion photos, making
Facebook the world’s largest photo-sharing service.”
- International Herald Tribune, June 15, 2009
Apple sold nearly US$1.9 billion in movie and music content on iTunes in 2008
- BusinessWeek, June 3, 2009
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9. Community
Online communities may be the greatest social force to be unleashed on the
human race since the advent of modern transportation
The world is “flat,” but there are well- springs of interest groups, fan clubs,
and social movements that are gaining influence and altering behaviors
Increasingly, social networks will
form the backbone of content
development, distribution and
prioritization
Human beings are “tribal” by
nature, and will therefore be
inclined toward and influenced
by their digital communities as
real-time access and quality
of communication improves
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10. The Evolutionary Impact
An inevitable shift will occur toward “interactive” mediums as they become increasingly
user-friendly and easily accessible
New content development models will emerge that are dynamic vs. static in nature
High Definition (HD) services will delay the shift to interactive mediums and devices, but it
will not be able to prevent it
News & entertainment choices will be made in line with community trends and
recommendations
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11. The Inevitability of Multi-Channel Digital Distribution
Infrastructure & Regulatory Advances Content providers & distributors are
are driving change and growth… defending against commercial change…
Telecom Service Providers are expanding Content Providers say pirating and revenue
bandwidth to the home and office cannibalization prevent them from making
changes or deploying digital
Technologists are innovating and improving
graphic processing and social media technologies Advertisers & Media Buyers prefer the high-
margin, low-risk traditional media channel and
Governments are promoting lower prices and deplore the low-margin, high-risk digital mediums
universal access to broadband and 3G mobile
services Marketers - who hold the advertising purse
strings – remain conservative and risk averse
Private Equity firms are seeing new bandwidth-
driven business opportunities and backing Consumers erroneously believe that all content
infrastructure and service deployment can and should be made available free-of-charge
Neophytes are responding to new, easy-to-use Device Manufacturers would rather “control”
technologies that offer simple access to digital media access as opposed to promoting open
content standards and open platforms
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12. Control
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13. Choice
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14. Asia Trends
Japanese broadband is the world’s fastest and cheapest
Korea has the highest broadband penetration in the world
Singapore is embarking on a state-of-the-art nationwide roll-out of high-speed networks
China is the fastest growing internet market in the world
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15. Asia Predictions
Asia will leverage its broadband roll-out in order to be among the world’s first in
delivering new video-telecom, e-government, and energy-management services
A new breed of interactive programming that combines gaming with television-style
drama will dominate the Korean and Japanese entertainment landscape
China will struggle with these changes; intermittently clamping down then opening
up, before the real revolution in digital media takes off
Indian software developers will unfurl new concepts in virtual (re: “cloud”)
computing that lead to server and network optimization and higher levels of
operational efficiency
Asian broadcast & cable operators will be vying for a place alongside the
telecommunications’ companies who start offering bundled voice, broadband and
interactive entertainment services
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16. Injecting New Talent into Old Business Models
Investors who understand the fast-moving dynamics of an internet world must lend
their experience and expertise in infusing old media and telcos with capital and talent
Traditional media companies will need to recruit and incentivize business
development and strategy leaders to generate new multi-platform products and
services designed to delight customers on all fronts
Regional telcos will need to hire talent from new and old media companies in order
to infuse their traditional “service” and “infrastructure” businesses with people who
offer “new” ways of thinking and behaving
Asian corporate leaders must assume greater risk and experimentation in order to
test a vast array of new digital media-related revenue opportunities
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17. Serving clients from 60 cities around the world
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