The Doomsday Upon Us, Marketing Festival, Prague, March 2019
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Is marketing "the activity, set of institutions, and processes for creating, communicating, delivering, and exchanging offerings that have value for customers, clients, partners, and society at large" or, thanks to data, machine learning & AI, has it crossed the fine line of manipulating audiences for the benefit of the few?
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The Doomsday Upon Us, Marketing Festival, Prague, March 2019
- 1. THE DOOMSDAY UPON US Photo by Shashank Sahay on Unsplash Stéphane Hamel
- 5. Photo by Greyson Joralemon on Unsplash
- 6. There’s an imminent and ever-present peril faced by those in positions of power.
- 7. Dr. Philip Kotler, 1972 “Marketing is the science and art of exploring, creating, and delivering value to satisfy the needs of a target market at a profit.
- 10. Data is the new oil • Unscrupulous digging • Waste disposal • Traceability • Bi-products • Oligarchy Photo by Robin Sommer on Unsplash
- 11. What’s your breaking point? Photo by Atik sulianami on Unsplash
- 12. Photo by Kevin Jarrett on Unsplash
- 13. Photo by Joao Tzanno on Unsplash
- 15. “man is shot dead in front of his screaming wife.” “a person is holding an umbrella in the air.” NORMAN norman-ai.mit.edu
- 16. “man killed by speeding driver.” “a close up of a wedding cake on a table.” NORMAN norman-ai.mit.edu
- 21. Such powerful tools also bring with them new questions and responsibilities. Sergey Brin April 2018
- 22. GPT2 REVIEW
- 23. AI is a fundamental existential risk for human civilization and I don’t think people fully appreciate that. Elon Musk July 2017
- 25. Welcome to the era of fake everything
- 27. 1. Well being 2. Respect for autonomy 3. Protection of privacy and intimacy 4. Solidarity 5. Democratic participation 6. Equity 7. Diversity inclusion 8. Prudence 9. Responsibility 10. Sustainable development www.montrealdeclaration-responsibleai.com
- 28. Stéphane Hamel Data is the raw material of my craft.
- 29. Credits (the fine prints) Copyright © 2019 by Stéphane Hamel/immeria inc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without the express permission of the author, except in brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews (with proper citation of source). No commercial use of this material is permitted. Immeria Consulting Servies inc. http://StephaneHamel.net shamel@immeria.net
Notas del editor
- Wow! I’m so glad to be here! To me, every conference is a source of inspiration, an opportunity to question what I do, a venue to meet real-life human beings instead of talking to a machine. We heard how brands needs to adapt and evolve, how our perception toward money is driving behavioural changes. Christopher shared how a super cool job can turn into a nightmare that has global consequences. I don’t know for you, but for me, it feels like a group therapy – but I’m also worried about the future. So… my name is Stéphane Hamel, data is the raw material of my craft, and I’m an addict. ----- Marketing Festival Prague, Czech Republic, March 20th, 2019 Time: 35 minutes Audience: 1500-2300 Q&A: 5-10 minutes by MC and from Sli.do Audience: marketers Background https://unsplash.com/photos/vwJFEkK8Kcs Font: https://www.fontspace.com/chequered-ink/enter-the-harbinger
- Let’s face it - marketers have been playing with their toys for 10 to 15 years – they despised IT while they enjoyed accessing nice 3D pie-charts – well… they looked nice at the time! But in any case, those were supposed to show without a shadow of a doubt what a fantastic job marketers were doing. The first time marketers had been so excited was when the BLINK HTML tag was introduced! ---- http://www.ymex.se/stat-adv/ https://www.lexiconn.com/ecommerce/shopsite/urchin.html
- Web analytics followed the path of the Web Master. It was democratized. Everybody and their dog jumped on the bandwagon. Who in his right mind wouldn’t want to be data driven, right? Of course marketers complained about data quality or whatever else because complaining is just part of the job definition. But one thing for sure - marketers didn’t miss an opportunity to claim loud and clear how THEY were so smart, how THEY were so brilliant and destined to spend more on technology than any CIO or CTO and naturally reign on the CEO throne. Web analytics was renamed “digital analytics”, because… because you have to follow the trend, don’t you? Actually, it’s a ploy that has been used by vendors and consultants for decades: define a new terminology around your discipline to make it sound special and justify your fees! Big Data was fun for a while, but it was all about the technology – it sounded too IT. Machine Learning and AI is the new craze - that’s the real thing! Marketers are eager to make it their own, or at least pretend to be the new Gods of data.
- Let me ask you a question – would you say your organization is customer centric? Of course you are!
- Are you data driven? I bet you are! The next question is: Just between us, nobody is listening, tell me, what precisely are you doing which demonstrates you are customer centric and data driven? It’s a difficult question to answer – but I trust you – or at least, you aspire to use the latest and greatest technology to become more customer centric and more data driven.
- But... Ladies & gentlemen, the Sword of Damocles is over our heads. And here’s why. ------- Damocles is a figure featured in a single moral anecdote commonly referred to as "the Sword of Damocles", an allusion to the imminent and ever-present peril faced by those in positions of power. Damocles was an obsequious courtier in the court of Dionysius II of Syracuse, a 4th-century BC tyrant of Syracuse, Sicily. Wikipedia
- How do YOU define marketing? The best products or services for the benefits of your customers, at a reasonable profit? Really? As it was defined almost 50 years ago by Kotler? --------- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/taking-advantage-data-without-people-rik-van-der-kooi/ https://kotlermarketing.com/phil_questions.shtml#answer3 Image: http://osmanfatihcengiz.com/philip-kotlerin-ardindan/
- Or, maybe, like me, you feel it has turned into “how can I manipulate target audiences so they do what I want them to do?” In fact, as we find ways to activate more and more data, we put ourselves in a position with consumers that I would describe as “fueling the crisis of trust”. By being less transparent than we could be, by not doing enough to educate consumers or to self-regulate, and with so many data leaks and abuses - voluntary or not - we act against consumers and ultimately our own best interests. We must admit that we have a problem. ------ Image : https://freedomfightersblog.com/2018/02/22/puppet-strings/
- For ordinary people not living in our data bubble, Cambridge Analytica was the first, shocking demonstration of what happens when data is abused at scale. We are all data people, we are all marketers – don’t tell me you wouldn’t be thrilled to work with a dataset of 87M rich profiles… because you would be lying. What got them isn’t the fact they collected all this data – the technology allowed it, it was clever, it was sneaky, but it worked. It’s not even the fact they used the data – to the contrary, they had very smart data scientists like Chris. So, then, what was the real problem? The real issue, in my opinion, is ordinary people found out about it! In a way, it’s all good until consumers realize they don’t have control – it’s all good until people realize they fell to propaganda. As marketers, we’re all dependent on data just like we’re still dependent on oil to fuel our cars. What about the other Cambridges out there? Experian claims to have 300M profiles from. 126M households, more than 50 years of historical information, thousands of attributes, interests and attitudes – and is being used by political parties. In fact, it just came out this week that Trump is spending 7 times more on Facebook than it’s nearest rival. More than all of them combined. ------- Image: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/blog/2011/04/21/president-s-facebook-town-hall-budgets-values-engagement https://www.businessinsider.com/data-hacks-breaches-biggest-of-2018-2018-12#7-cambridge-analytica-87-million-15 https://medium.com/analytics-vidhya/analyzing-medium-posts-to-understand-impact-of-cambridge-analytica-scandal-5841f46703d6 https://www.adweek.com/digital/a-researchers-quiz-app-deceptively-harvested-data-for-political-research-facebook-alleges/ https://www.news.com.au/technology/online/social/if-trump-gets-reelected-this-will-probably-have-a-lot-to-do-with-it/news-story/b85dedb7a346bb438883cf83fc53e60f
- In fact, “data is the new oil” is just too good an analogy! Greed often lead to unscrupulous digging on private or protected lands The half-life of data is very short and few companies truly have plans for proper disposal Once in the Big Data pipeline, traceability becomes almost impossible The primary purpose of data collection is quickly forgotten in favor of analysis bi-products And at a global level, just like oil, data is controlled and processed by an oligarchy ----- Image: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-decc-budget-details-show-limited-scope-for-cuts/stock-oil-refinery-night-uk-scotland
- As a consumer, when will you say “that’s enough”! Your behavior is being scrutinized, your data is being pulled in all directions without the ability to see what’s at the other end of the forces pulling it. --- Image: https://unsplash.com/photos/0ujNS9PMFhM
- Take a simple example - are you using an ad blocker? While 25 to 30% of the general population block ads, when I ask the question to audiences of marketers and data people like yourself, the ratio is much higher – typically over 50% and sometimes up to 80%. Isn't it odd that we don't want to do upon ourselves what we impose to our visitors, users and customers? We want data but we don't want to share our own? Maybe because we know how the machine works! -------- Image: https://unsplash.com/photos/fhilsHdHa9s
- As a digital marketer and analyst, what is YOUR limit? We comfort ourselves by hearing no evil, seeing no evil, speaking no evil. We comfort ourselves by saying “I have nothing to hide” “The info is already public anyway” “Any technology can be used for good or evil” “Everybody does it” ------- Image: https://unsplash.com/photos/1NacmxqfPZA
- Let’s be blunt and stop lying to ourselves. We are the equivalent of WWII scientists who didn’t realize they were working on the next generation of chemical warfare. You, as an individual, will have your data breached and abused. You, as a marketer, might think you are merely a cog in the machine – you are doing nothing wrong, but you might be contributing to the Devil’s work. Maybe the risks are better exposed with examples. ------- Source: http://krowdthink.com/ Image: https://www.erglawfirm.com/2013/10/30/little-known-fact-tampa-bay-has-endured-two-oil-spills-in-past-20-years/#lightbox[gallery]/0/
- In April of last year, the MIT created Norman – an AI bot trained to recognize inkblots – a psychological test developed a century ago. You've seen those kind of images. Without thinking too much about it, what do you see? Maybe you see something like “a person holding an umbrella in the air”. But if you have the genes of a psychopath, you might see “a man is shot dead in front of his screaming wife”… In fact, they created the world's first psychopath AI to demonstrate how data used to teach a machine learning algorithm can significantly influence its behavior. --------- The Rorschach test is a psychological test in which subjects' perceptions of inkblots are recorded and then analyzed using psychological interpretation. So what might possibly happen if we ask AI to interpret those? --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test http://norman-ai.mit.edu/
- Let’s look at another one. Do you see ”a close up of a wedding cake on a table” or a “man killed by speeding driver”? Did you feel a little chill when I revealed the evil version? Now transpose this to something else.
- Three years ago, Microsoft launched Tay.ai – a chatbot hidden behind the avatar of a 19-year-old girl. Tay was able to make jokes, comment pictures, tell stories, play games, and mirror users’ statements back to them. Just like Norman, one of the things the AI learned was how to make offensive and racist statements… It only took 16 hours to become a racist and sexist monster saying things I can’t even share here. It didn't take a day to loose control! Maybe what is even scarier is Tay did such a good job – even using emojis in the right context – in many ways, she passed the Turing test. Most people wouldn’t be able to say she was a bot. -------- https://www.vox.com/2016/3/24/11299034/twitter-microsoft-tay-robot-hate-racist-sexist https://www.techrepublic.com/article/why-microsofts-tay-ai-bot-went-wrong/ https://twitter.com/TayandYou
- This kind of machine learning evil-doing has been an issue since the beginning. In the early 2000, research was being done on agents that learned to socially interact together. In one simulation, there were two agents, named Adam and Eve. Another agent named Stan was introduced, the poor guy just wanted to be social but wasn’t very good at it, so he was often hanging around and kind of lonely. Since Adam & Eve were hungry around the time they saw Stan, they learned to associate food with Stan. The correlation was strong! After a while… once they had eaten all the apples, they hate Stan... -------- https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-creepiest-thing-any-AI-has-done-so-far/answer/Mike-Sellers https://onmogul.com/stories/the-creepiest-thing-ai-has-done-so-far-virtual-cannibalism Image: https://steemit.com/celestialchallenge/@alexchang/the-story-of-adam-eve-the-serpent-and-the-forbidden-fruit-daily-celestial-challenge-saturday-agriculture
- In another story, robots were trained to herd more sheep into a virtual pen than their competing robots. One robot got a single sheep in the pen and shot the door – than turned around and killed all the other bots… Why bother herding the sheep if there’s an easier way to win? ------ https://www.quora.com/profile/Shay-Zykova Image: https://www.galwaydaily.com/courts/galway-farmer-fined-e1-in-council-crackdown-on-sheep-pen/
- Now, let’s keep those examples in mind and switch to actual, recent applications of similar concepts. You’ve certainly heard about Google Duplex. It clearly demonstrated the state and extent of AI voice recognition and synthesis. It clearly passes the Turing Test. Of course, Google say the AI will disclose itself… yeah… right… maybe Google will, but others using similar technology won’t. Like any other technology, it can be used for good, but also for evil. ------- Image: https://www.engadget.com/2018/05/10/google-duplex-ai-identification/ Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5VN56jQMWM
- Should we be worried? Am I being paranoid or falling for conspiracy theories? Heck! Even Google’s own co-founder is worried. ------- https://www.wired.com/story/mortal-danger-chinas-push-into-ai/ https://www.wired.com/story/elon-forget-killer-robots-focus-on-the-real-ai-problems/ https://www.macobserver.com/news/french-defence-secretary-cyber-war-has-begun/ https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9065522/alibaba-s-jack-ma-technology-could-result-in-a-new-world-war/
- Just a few weeks ago, the non-profit OpenAI, backed by Elon Musk, indicated it wouldn’t publish the result of its research on text generation because it is just too good. OpenAI was trained on 8 million web pages and was able to “adapt to the style and content of the conditioning text,” allowing the user to “generate realistic and coherent continuations about a topic of their choosing.” Given a sentence about unicorns, the AI wrote an amazingly convincing fiction. Given only the words “Hillary Clinton and George Soros”, it generated a convincing political conspiracy fakenews. ------ https://www.wired.com/story/ai-text-generator-too-dangerous-to-make-public/ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/14/elon-musk-backed-ai-writes-convincing-news-fiction https://futurism.com/amazing-new-ai-churns-out-coherent-paragraphs-of-text Image: https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/
- Again, data scientists quickly lost control of their creation. Again, something that could be used for Good could easily tip on the Evil side. And we have several examples of tech leaders expressing their concern. ------ https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/feb/14/elon-musk-backed-ai-writes-convincing-news-fiction https://hbr.org/2019/03/how-will-we-prevent-ai-based-forgery
- (play video) Worrying? A professor from the University of Washington who worked on this kind of deepfake said “every technology can be used in some negative way and so we all should work towards making sure it’s not going to happen”. Yes? How are you making sure of that? Rest assured if it can be done, it will be – regardless of policies and legal frameworks. To be honest, there are counter measures that are able to detect artificial voices and altered videos and pictures. But ordinary people won’t see the difference… ---- Enter Artificial Intelligence (AI) and what is known as “deepfake” videos. The term “deepfake” is a synthesis of two words: deep learning and fake. Deep learning allows AI to understand things about you, like your face and body, from readily available images and video. Using a machine-learning technique called a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), you only need to combine the source video and imagery into a targeted video to be used for the fake. Deepfakes are a recent phenomenon, emerging in 2017 as a threat initially involving the porn industry; unfortunately, Hollywood actresses like Scarlett Johansson were too easy of a target for deepfake porn videos. By the very nature of her work, there is a tremendous number of images and hundreds of hours of video with which to work. The result is a product that soon will be indistinguishable from the real thing. But this is only the beginning. This escalation has gotten the attention of our Department of Defense, specifically the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). They’ve even been holding contests to create the best deepfake videos on the planet in order to test their new tools for ferreting out AI-generated photos, videos and even audio recordings. ---- https://youtu.be/cQ54GDm1eL0 https://youtu.be/AmUC4m6w1wo https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/426536-the-age-of-deepfake-when-seeing-is-no-longer-necessarily-believing http://niessnerlab.org/projects/thies2016face.html
- Given what we’ve just seen; Given the state of AI today; Given the fake clickfarms; Given the potential for mass-scale manipulation and propaganda; Given the ease of creating fakenews and deepfake videos. What are we going to do?
- Maybe it won’t prevent Evil minds from doing their evil work. But as marketers, you should know about and embrace the Montreal Declaration of Responsible AI principles. ----- https://www.montrealdeclaration-responsibleai.com/the-declaration Image: https://www.mindbridge.ai/montreal-declaration-responsible-ai/montreal-declaration/
- It has ten principles: For example, the 1st principle states ”the development and use of AI must permit the growth of the well-being of all humans”. The 2nd one says “AI must be used with respect for people’s autonomy, and with the goal of increasing people’s control over their lives and their surroundings” And of course, the 3rd one is super important: “Privacy and intimacy must be protected from intrusion by AIs and by data-acquisition and archiving systems”. It goes on to cover democratic scrutiny and control, equitable society, cultural diversity and not restricting choices and personal experience. Adverse consequences must be anticipated and responsibility must not be delegated to machines. Even if you are not into machine learning and AI, read and embrace those principles. Consider it your small contribution to do what’s Good and let’s hope we will not live the dark, gloomy doomsday ahead of us. ------ Well-being: The development and use of artificial-intelligence systems must permit the growth of the well-being of all sentient beings. Respect for autonomy: AIS must be developed and used with respect for people’s autonomy, and with the goal of increasing people’s control over their lives and their surroundings. Protection of privacy and intimacy: Privacy and intimacy must be protected from intrusion by AIS and by data-acquisition and archiving systems. Solidarity: The development of AIS must be compatible with maintaining the bonds of solidarity among people and generations. Democratic participation: AIS must meet intelligibility, justifiability and accessibility criteria, and must be subjected to democratic scrutiny, debate and control. Equity: The development and use of AIS must contribute to the creation of a just and equitable society. Diversity inclusion: The development and use of AIS must be compatible with maintaining social and cultural diversity, and must not restrict the scope of lifestyle choices and personal experience. Prudence: Every person involved in AIS development must exercise caution by anticipating, as far as possible, the potential adverse consequences of AIS use, and by taking appropriate measures to avoid them. Responsibility: The development and use of AIS must not contribute to diminishing the responsibility of human beings when decisions must be made. Sustainable development: The development and use of AIS must be carried out so as to ensure strong environmental sustainability of the planet. https://www.montrealdeclaration-responsibleai.com/the-declaration
- I’m Stéphane Hamel, and data is the raw material of my craft. Thank you!