Intervención de José Luis García Ruiz y Teodosio Pérez Amaral, Universidad Complutense, en el marco del seminario El espíritu empresarial 14 y 15 d eoctubre de 2010.

1. UN MODELO EMPÍRICO DE EMPRESARIALIDAD PARA LA ESPAÑA DEL SIGLO XX José Luis García Ruiz (UCM) & Teodosio Pérez Amaral (UCM)

12. A SCHUMPETERIAN MODEL (and V) Technological Change (TCH) is measured by the ratio of new patents granted to residents per million of inhabitants. Source: Saiz (2005). Spain has been chronically weak in the technological realm (Ortiz Villajos 1999), but ups and downs are recognizable in the graph. Interest rates (IR) . Nominal long run interest rates have been taken from Carreras and Tafunell (2004), completed with series from the web of the Bank of Spain. Anti-inflation policies did move interest rates upwards between mid-1960s and mid-1980s.

14. A CONTROL VARIABLE IN THE DEMAND SIDE (and II) Per capita income (PCI) is measured in constant euros of 2000. Sources: GDP in Maluquer de Motes (2009) and Population in Maluquer de Motes (2008). Three phases can be identified in the evolution of Spanish per capita income during the twentieth century: 1) 1901-1939, when the slight improvements made in the first three decades were lost during the crisis of the 1930s; 2) 1940-1960, which was a period of slow post-bellum recovery; 3) 1961-2000, where a trend of accelerated growth is easy to be recognized.

16. A CONTROL VARIABLE IN THE SUPPLY SIDE (and II) Working Population Growth (WPG) is measured by rates of change in working population using as source Nicolau (2005). The series shows an upward trend in the first half of the twentieth century with two dramatic falls in 1919 (after the boom of the WWI years) and 1938-1939 (the last years of the Civil War). In the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s the growth of the working population was clearly below that of the GDP. In those years of the Franco’s dictatorship, women were generally absent from the labor markets. This situation changed with the return to democracy in 1977.

18. CONTROL VARIABLES IN THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK (and II) Higher Education (HE) are university students as a percentage of 20-24 years old population. Source: Núñez (2005) and Instituto de Evaluación (2000-2009). The figures were flat at very low levels before the Civil War, increased smoothly during the First Francoism and grew very fast in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s. Tax Rates (TR) are direct taxes as a percentage of GDP in current prices. Source: Comín and Díaz-Fuentes 2005. It is easy to observe that fiscal pressure was kept very low in Spain (less than 5 percent) before the reform that took place immediately after the democratic elections of 1977.

19. ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ITS DETERMINANTS (I) An unclear relationship between entrepreneurship and patent granting, TCH The bibariate relationship between entrepreneurship and interest rate IR is backward bending, which is unusual.

20. ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ITS DETERMINANTS (II) A clear positive relationship between entrepreneurship and per capita income, PCI A slight positive relationship between entrepreneurship and working population growth: WPG

21. ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ITS DETERMINANTS (IV) A positive relationship between entrepreneurship and higher education, HE A positive relationship between entrepreneurship and tax rate, TR. Specially clear from 1978 on.