Energy Transition in global Aviation - ETSAP Workshop Turin Mr. Felix Lippkau, IER University of Suttgart, Germany 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino

1. IER
Ressourceneffizienz
in der Industrie zur
Einhaltung des 1,5°C
Ziels
Felix Lippkau
Prof. Markus Blesl
Energy Transition in global
Aviation
ETSAP Workshop Turin
16.11 2023
IER University of Stuttgart

2. Motivation
Overview
Results
Discussion
and
limitations
Conclusion
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Agenda

3. • The global aviation sector is responsible for approx. 2.5% of global CO2 Emission
• In TIAM the aviation sector is modelled via energy input and output
• Demand is projected in PJ
• a-km and p-km not differentiated
• Generic airplane process
→ different airplane types (kerosene, hydrogen and e-fuels)
→ Demand in Bp-km
→ Interested in hydrogen and e-fuel demand
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Motivation

4. • 78 % passenger and 22% freight
transport.
• Fuel demand decreased: 2.8 MJ/p-
km in 1990 to 1.1 MJ/p-km in 2021.
• 6l/100km gasoline/diesel car has
2,11 MJ/v-km -> 2 person 1,05
MJ/p-km
• 1100 km per person a year on
global average
• 2000 – 2019: 5.68% increase p.a.
• 2019 – 2020: 66% drop in demand
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Overview of the global aviation
0,00
1.000,00
2.000,00
3.000,00
4.000,00
5.000,00
6.000,00
7.000,00
8.000,00
9.000,00
10.000,00
[Bp-km]
global passenger aviation demand

5. 16.11.2023
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Global Fleet
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
North America
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
China
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Eastern Europe
India
Airplanes in regional fleet [-]
Fleet size of different regions 2023
Narrowbody
60%
Widebody
20%
Regional Jet
12%
Other
8%
Distribution of the global fleet 2023
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
A320-200
737-800
A319-100
737-300
737-700
A321-200
Planes in stock 2023
• Approx. 28000 airplanes in global fleet
• Highly populated countries/regions (e.g.
India & Africa) with small fleet
• Airbus and Boeing mostly share the market
for passenger aviation

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Emission distribution in the global aviation
Range in km up to
PAX 500 1000 2000 3000 4500 7000 8500 10000 >10000
CO2
emissions
Global
Fleet
Commuter
<19
< 1% 4%
Regional
20-80
3% 13%
Short-range
81-165
24% 53%
Medium-
range 166-
250
43% 18%
Long-range
>250
30% 12%
Total 4% 13% 25% 14% 11% 12% 7% 7% 7%
0 -2 % 2-5 % 5 -10% 10-15%

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Cost and fuel assumption
• Hydrogen planes are overall more expensive in
terms of invest cost
• Starting 25% for small range and up to 45% for
large range
• Small range airplanes can be 4% more
efficient compared to the kerosene
technology
• For large range up to 40% more fuel
consumption is possible
-
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
kerosene hydrogen kerosene hydrogen kerosene hydrogen
small range medium range long range
[M$/passenger]
specific invest cost
-
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
kerosene hydrogen kerosene hydrogen kerosene hydrogen
small range medium range long range
[MJ/p-km]
specific fuel consumption

8. Process chain for sustainable aviation fuels
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Energy carrier in global aviation
Electricity Hydrogen e-fuel
100% 60% - 70%
CO2
Biom
ass
Best case: 44%
direct air
capture or
biomass
CHP: heat
and
electricity
optional

9. Results

10. Based on TIAM properties
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Aviation Model
• 16 regions
• Time horizon: 2019 -2100
• 12 Time-slices
• perfect foresight

11. Scenario Description Demand Efficiency increase
BAU No climate policy
1% rise in demand p.a. 20% in 2050
CO2 Tax Climate policy via CO2
tax
Hydrogen and e-fuels
are available starting
2030
CO2 Tax 2 Climate policy via CO2
tax
Hydrogen is not
considered. E-fuels
available starting 2030
Scenario description
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Results

12. CO2 Emissions related to global aviation
Results
• Net Zero 2050 with
CO2 Tax
• In BAU the CO2
emission rise to
over 1,2 Gt
• e-fuels need an
adjusted price path
-
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
CO2
emissions
[Gt]
BAU CO2 Tax 2 CO2 TAX

13. Global commulative CO2 Emissions
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Results
• Cumulative CO2 of
BAU 80 Gt in 2100.
• 420 Gt CO2
Emission available
according to the
IPCC
• 19% of CO2 Budget
for BAU 4,2% for
CO2 Tax 2 and
3,6% for CO2 Tax
-
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
[Gt]
BAU CO2 Tax 2 CO2 TAX

14. Global fuel demand for aviation
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Results
• Fuel demand can
rise to roughly 5000
TWh in 2100
• 60% increase in
overall fuel demand
for CO2 Tax
• 53% increase in
overall fuel demand
for CO2 Tax 2
• 60/40 hydrogen to
e-fuels in 2100 for
CO2 Tax
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
BAU
BAU
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
BAU
CO2
TAX
CO2
Tax
2
2019 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
hydrogen kerosene e-fuel

15. Global electricity demand for aviation
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Results
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100
[TWh]
CO2 TAX CO2 Tax 2
• Over 9000 TWh demand
in 2100 for CO2 Tax 2
• Approx. 4000 TWh
demand in 2100 for CO2
Tax
• Germany 2100
• CO2 Tax: 174 TWh
• CO2 Tax 2: 255 TWh
• Electricity production
2022: 510 TWh

16. Cost comparison
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Results
20,54
29,59 30,26
229,82
336,96
350,70
-
50,00
100,00
150,00
200,00
250,00
300,00
350,00
400,00
BAU CO2 Tax CO2 Tax 2 BAU CO2 Tax CO2 Tax 2
Stuttgart - Hamburg London - New York
[$/Flight]
• Stuttgart – Hamburg
• 550 km
• CO2 Tax + 44%
• CO2 Tax 2 + 47%
• London – New York
• 5500 km
• CO2 Tax + 46%
• CO2 Tax 2 + 52%

17. Discussion & Conclusion

18. • Only direct CO2 emissions are considered for now
• Emission factor of 73,5 g CO2/MJ considered (135 g CO2/MJ)
• Cloud building not been considered so far
• Hydrogen airplanes uncertain
• Data availability is uncertain and infrastructure costs as well
• Standalone model for now
• No competition with other sectors
• Behavioral change is possible but not considered
• A demand increase of 1 % p.a. is the lowest estimate in recent literature (often 4% or even more)
• No consideration of battery electric or fuel cell airplanes and biofuels
Discussion and limitations

19. • Net zero possible for both hydrogen and e-fuels
• Hydrogen planes will require a new infrastructure which will cause additional costs
• e-fuels are more flexible
• No change in technology is necessary
• Shares with fossil kerosene possible
• Due to climate policy flights increased by 40% in cost at a minimum
• At least 5000 TWh of sustainable aviation fuels are required in 2100
• The decision of e-fuels or hydrogen will increase the energy dependency for certain countries/regions
• Global coordination necessary
• Behavioral change would be beneficial
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Conclusion

20. • Silde 4
• IATA: Worldwide Air Transport Statistics 2021, July 2021
• C. Bergero, G. Gosnell, D. Gielen, S. Kang, M. Bazilian, and S. J. Davis, “Pathways to net-zero emissions from aviation,” Nat Sustain, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 404–414, 2023, doi: 10.1038/s41893-
022-01046-9.
• Slide 5
• https://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2023/feb/Fleet-and-MRO-Forecast-2023-2033.pdf
• Slide 6/8
• McKinsey & Company, “Hydrogen-powered aviation: A fact-based study of hydrogen technology, economics, and climate impact by 2050,” May. 2020, doi: 10.2843/471510.
• R. Sacchi et al., “How to make climate-neutral aviation fly,” Nature communications, vol. 14, no. 1, p. 3989, 2023, doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-39749-y.
• Slide 7
• D. Franzmann et al., “Green hydrogen cost-potentials for global trade,” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, vol. 45, no. 11, p. 6793, 2023, doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.05.012.
• P. Buchenberg et al., “Global Potentials and Costs of Synfuels via Fischer–Tropsch Process,” Energies, vol. 16, no. 4, p. 1976, 2023, doi: 10.3390/en16041976.
• Overall
• https://www.boeing.com/commercial/
• https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft
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Sources

21. Thanks!
E-Mail
Telefon +49 (0) 711 685 -
Fax +49 (0) 711 685 -
University of Stuttgart
Heßbrühlstr. 49a, 70565 Stuttgart
Felix Lippkau
87870
87873
Systemanalytische Methoden und Wärmemarkt
felix.lippkau@ier.uni-stuttgart.de