Synthetic methane production prospective modelling up to 2050 in the European Union 16–17th november 2023, Turin, Italy, etsap meeting, etsap winter workshop, semi-annual meeting, november 2023, Politecnico di Torino Lingotto, Torino Ms. Marie Codet, Centre de mathématiques appliquées - Mines ParisTech; France

1. Centre for Applied
Mathematics
Modelling synthetic methane
production up to 2050 in the
European Union
Marie CODET – PhD candidate

2. 2
CONTEXT &
METHODOLOGY

3. 3
CONTEXT
Academic supervision Study sponsor
→ Conditions for the emergence of a synthetic methane
(eCH4) industry in the EU by 2050?

4. 4
Upgrading
Upgrading
Hydrothermal
gasification
Pyrogasificati
on
Electrolyser
Anaerobic
digestion
In-situ
biometha
nation
Ex-situ
biometh
anation
Catalytic
methana
tion
Fuel cell
Landfill gas
Microalgae
Intermediate crops
Non organic
waste
Waste other
than food indus
Water treatment
sludge
Farming &
agriculture waste
Food industry
waste
Municipal organic
residues
Capture
Boiler
Burner
Cold unit
Cogener
ator
Water
Gas
grid
Elec
grid
Heating
network
District
cooling
Industry
Biogas
Compressed
H2
REFERENCE ENERGY SYSTEM

5. 5
METHANATION PROCESS IN TIAM-FR

6. 6
BIOGAS PRODUCTION IN TIAM-FR

7. 7
Base_N50
• Europe Net Zero 2050
• Low biomass potential
• Base :
oCAPEX & OPEX : eCH4 units & electrolysers
oCO2 cost
oeCH4 units perf
• No subsidy for methanation units’ CAPEX
Common
H2 & eCH4 cost : dependant
variables
→ Electrolysers main
contributors to eCH4 units’
cost (Götz, 2016)
BASE HYPOTHESIS

8. 8
(+ RePowerEU)
14 REGULAR SCENARIOS, 15 CASES

9. 9
RESULTS

10. 10
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
(PJ)
CCUGAS03
CCUGAS02
CCUGAS04
CCUGAS03
IN EEU, CCUGAS EMERGES FROM 2050

11. 11
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
2030 2040 2050
CCUGAS03 : ONLY TECHNO TO EMERGE IN 2050
(PJ)

12. 12
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
2030 2040 2050
(PJ)
CCUGAS03 : ONLY TECHNO TO EMERGE IN 2050

13. 13
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.05
2030 2040 2050
base_n50_3~0003 ech4_repowereu~0003
(PJ)
REPOWEREU MEASURES ENCOURAGES ECH4 PRODUCTION
IN WEU

14. 14
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2030 2040 2050
CCUGAS01 CCUGAS03
(PJ)
ECH4 PRODUCTION IN WEU IN THE
BASE_N50_NOSTORAGE_3~0003 SCENARIO

15. 15
380000000.00
390000000.00
400000000.00
410000000.00
420000000.00
430000000.00
440000000.00
450000000.00
(mUSD2010)
TOTAL DISCOUNTED COST OF THE SYSTEM

16. 16
380000000.00
390000000.00
400000000.00
410000000.00
420000000.00
430000000.00
440000000.00
450000000.00
TOTAL DISCOUNTED COST OF THE SYSTEM
(mUSD2010)

17. 17
CONCLUSIONS

18. 18
LIMITS AND INCONSISTENCIES
Geographical
breakdown
2030 eCH4
production
Biogas SubRES
file

19. 19
RECOMMENDATIONS MADE TO ORANO
Small competitive
market
Maintaining
market watch
Prospective
modeling

20. 20
PERSPECTIVES
Nuclear for H2
production
Looping AD &
methanation
Materials : my
PhD !
Russian
imports

21. Thank you for your
attention!
Marie Codet
Marie.codet@minesparis.psl.eu
+33 6 79 45 19 80

22. 22
APPENDIXES

23. 23
BASE VALUES FOR CCUGAS PROCESSES
Performances
OPEX
CAPEX

24. 24
OPTIMISTIC VALUES FOR CCUGAS PROCESSES
Performances
OPEX
CAPEX

25. 25
PESSIMISTIC VALUES FOR CCUGAS PROCESSES
Performances
CAPEX
OPEX

26. 26
BASE PERFORMANCE VALUES FOR ELECTROLYSERS

27. 27
BASE COST VALUES FOR ELECTROLYSERS

28. 28
HIGH PERFORMANCE VALUES FOR ELECTROLYSERS

29. 29
OPTIMISTIC COST VALUES FOR ELECTROLYSERS

30. 30
PESSIMISTIC PERFORMANCE VALUES FOR
ELECTROLYSERS

31. 31
PESSIMISTIC COST VALUES FOR ELECTROLYSERS

32. 32
SUBSIDY VALUES IN USD2010/GJ

33. 33
NO CO2 STORAGE SCENARIO

34. 34
CO2 PRICES SCENARIO
1 : No CO2 cost hypothesis
3 : Base CO2 cost hypothesis
5 : High CO2 cost hypothesis

35. 35
FOCUS ON THE REPOWEREU UC SCENARIO