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1.2 The impact of energy insecurity Enquiry question: What are the potential impacts of an increasingly ‘energy insecure’ world?
Energy pathways ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Describe the changes in the global energy trade since 1981?
There has been a significant increase in the export of fuels. Export growth particularly from Middle east and former Soviet Union South and central America has increased; not a major player. There has been a significant increase in imports. The countries exporting are NOT the countries importing Europe, Asia and the Asia- Pacific region are now  heavily reliant  on energy imports. The USA uses imports.  The numbers change. They have some supplies of their own. Having found out all of this, think about what it means for global energy security.
Oil  Global pathways Oil has a complex global pattern of PATHWAYS and PLAYERS (exporters and importers). The Middle east exports around 15 000 barrels per day, mainly TO Japan, Europe and CHINA.  Substantial amounts flow from Africa, Canada and South and central America TO the USA. Russia supplies some oil to CHINA, but the bulk of its exports now head to Europe. Increasingly African nations are supplying oil and other ources to China
 
“ If we stop using fossil fuels our industrial civilization will collapse and the ensuing chaos could lead to global wars that would wreck the biosphere.  If we continue to use fossil fuels, the pollution will continue to foul the world and create more resource conflicts. Damned if we do, damned if we don't.  Solving these problems is the greatest challenge ever faced by our species”
[object Object],[object Object]
Oil consumption Top 10 biggest oil consumers- barrels per day used 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm?view=consumption   Rank Country Consumption 1 United States 19,498 2 China 7,831 3 Japan 4,785 4 India 2,962 5 Russia 2,916 6 Germany 2,569 7 Brazil 2,485 8 Saudi Arabia 2,376 9 Canada 2,261 10 Korea, South 2,175 11 Mexico 2,128 12 France 1,986 13 Iran 1,741 14 United Kingdom 1,710 15 Italy 1,639
Oil production http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm?view=production   2008 Barrels per day Rank Country Production   1 Saudi Arabia 10,782   2 Russia 9,790   3 United States 8,514   4 Iran 4,174   5 China 3,973   6 Canada 3,350   7 Mexico 3,186   8 United Arab Emirates 3,046   9 Kuwait 2,741   10 Venezuela 2,643   11 Norway 2,466   12 Brazil 2,402   13 Iraq 2,385   14 Algeria 2,180   15 Nigeria 2,169  
oil producing countries
[object Object],[object Object],Summary of Reserve Data as of 2008
 
 
[object Object],BRICs Brazil, Russia,  India and China Japan, UK, Germany  and the USA Account for over ½ world’s total oil consumption
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Explain how and why oil prices have changed in the past 150yrs (10)
So what is the problem?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],What do you understand by the term Peak Oil?  Write down your definition http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHKp5vF_VoE   peak oil explained
Peak oil theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This graph shows points various oil producing areas reached peak oil
Declining Oil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impacts of peak oil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Describe the impacts a country will face having reached peak oil, under the following headings- Level of supply Supply reliability Impacts economically
How are we preparing for peak oil? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What about Gas? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where’s the prospect of new oil? Lesson 4
Can oil production increase? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The world’s oil: Conventional oil endowment (cumulative production plus mean estimates of remaining oil reserves and undiscovered oil resources) by province in billion barrels of oil (BBO) for 128 oil provinces. World data are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2000 assessment of world petroleum resources; U.S. data are from USGS (1995 assessment) and from the Minerals Management Service (1996 assessment).
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
Background  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Problems? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What has been found so far? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Why these discoveries? ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cold Comfort: Arctic Is Oil Hot Spot  ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
http://www.anwr.org/Video/View-our-ANWR-Flash-Movie.php
 
 
 
 
Opinions  “ I hope people understand, in a 20,000-square-mile area, this is 2,000 acres. It is a plot of land the size of LAX that we would want to drill to explore. ," Sarah Palin- John McCain's running mate for 2008 us PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
[object Object]
Inupiat Eskimo   “ We support the drilling- it will provide jobs for locals and Americans all over the country- it will enable Alaska to further develop energy security and it doesn’t affect us or the caribou migrations we rely on”
Other arguments in favour ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
“ Me not want any of your dirty oil spilling on me food or land- my calves might eat it or step on it”
"I strongly reject drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge because it would irreversibly damage a protected national wildlife refuge without creating sufficient oil supplies to meaningfully affect the global market price or have a discernible impact on US energy security."
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Other arguments against
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Use handouts from oxford pages 28-9 and booklet sheets to help you Looking for more energy Increasing energy insecurity has stimulated exploration of technically difficult and environmentally sensitive areas.  FOR AGAINST SOCIAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL
ANWR FOR developing AGAINST developing SOCIAL/ CULTURAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL
Canada’s Tar Sands ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],i.treehugger.com/files/canada-tar-sands-01.jpg NASA http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJrZ7ZeFHPE
The tar sands areas in Canada are about the size of Florida.
First, forests must be cleared. In this case the trees were stacked and burned.
Secondly, strip mining begins. Strip mines in the Canadian oil sands are the largest in the world.
 
The small trucks are 4 ton service trucks.
Following the strip mining, the tar sands are sent to the refinery for processing.
Emissions
Water from nearby rivers is tainted with heavy metals and oil once its used to produce steam. The steam separates the tar from the sand.
There is no known way to decontaminate this water. Some of the holding ponds are 30 sq miles.
The earthen dam on the left is over 300 feet high. The river immediately adjacent runs to the Artic.
From 2000 feet, as far as you can see it’s the same story, a strip mine, a processing plant and a holding pond.  Currently this area produces 1 million bbls/day, it 5 years it will be 5 million bbls/day, 20% of our oil supply.
Unconventional resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
While Canada has the tar sands, the U.S. has vast amounts of oil shale. The majority of oil shale is in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. The Bureau of Land Management is actively exploring options for tapping this resource.
Tar sand extraction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Tar sand extraction An area of boreal forest the size of Florida is about to be strip mined to provide a few percent of the US liquid fuel reqm’t.  First step is to remove the trees.
Homework- Case study: Turning Canada’s tar sands into oil (pages 30-31 Oxford book) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
Who are the key players in Energy Supply
 
Main Players   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What influences oil pricing?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Largest ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Use page 32 -35 of Oxford text and 20-21 of PA text and produce a mind-map of the players in the oil game. Players: Cartels State controlled companies TNCs
Why do we care about OPEC oil? Who are the main players involved in the supply?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
OPEC ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
OPEC Member Countries :  Country Joined OPEC Location Algeria 1969 Africa Angola 2007 Africa Ecuador(**) rejoined 2007 South America IR Iran* 1960 Middle East Iraq* 1960 Middle East Kuwait* 1960 Middle East SP Libyan AJ 1962 Africa Nigeria 1971 Africa Qatar 1961 Middle East Saudi Arabia* 1960 Middle East United Arab Emirates 1967 Middle East Venezuela* 1960 South America *founder Members ** Ecuador joined OPEC in 1973, suspended its membership from Dec. 1992-Oct. 2007
‘ The economics of oil’ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object]
OPEC’s role in energy supply: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
Homework- Powerful players in the global supply of energy OPEC ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Lesson7oil

  • 1. 1.2 The impact of energy insecurity Enquiry question: What are the potential impacts of an increasingly ‘energy insecure’ world?
  • 2.
  • 3. Describe the changes in the global energy trade since 1981?
  • 4. There has been a significant increase in the export of fuels. Export growth particularly from Middle east and former Soviet Union South and central America has increased; not a major player. There has been a significant increase in imports. The countries exporting are NOT the countries importing Europe, Asia and the Asia- Pacific region are now heavily reliant on energy imports. The USA uses imports. The numbers change. They have some supplies of their own. Having found out all of this, think about what it means for global energy security.
  • 5. Oil Global pathways Oil has a complex global pattern of PATHWAYS and PLAYERS (exporters and importers). The Middle east exports around 15 000 barrels per day, mainly TO Japan, Europe and CHINA. Substantial amounts flow from Africa, Canada and South and central America TO the USA. Russia supplies some oil to CHINA, but the bulk of its exports now head to Europe. Increasingly African nations are supplying oil and other ources to China
  • 6.  
  • 7. “ If we stop using fossil fuels our industrial civilization will collapse and the ensuing chaos could lead to global wars that would wreck the biosphere. If we continue to use fossil fuels, the pollution will continue to foul the world and create more resource conflicts. Damned if we do, damned if we don't. Solving these problems is the greatest challenge ever faced by our species”
  • 8.
  • 9. Oil consumption Top 10 biggest oil consumers- barrels per day used 2008 http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm?view=consumption Rank Country Consumption 1 United States 19,498 2 China 7,831 3 Japan 4,785 4 India 2,962 5 Russia 2,916 6 Germany 2,569 7 Brazil 2,485 8 Saudi Arabia 2,376 9 Canada 2,261 10 Korea, South 2,175 11 Mexico 2,128 12 France 1,986 13 Iran 1,741 14 United Kingdom 1,710 15 Italy 1,639
  • 10. Oil production http://www.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm?view=production 2008 Barrels per day Rank Country Production   1 Saudi Arabia 10,782   2 Russia 9,790   3 United States 8,514   4 Iran 4,174   5 China 3,973   6 Canada 3,350   7 Mexico 3,186   8 United Arab Emirates 3,046   9 Kuwait 2,741   10 Venezuela 2,643   11 Norway 2,466   12 Brazil 2,402   13 Iraq 2,385   14 Algeria 2,180   15 Nigeria 2,169  
  • 12.
  • 13.  
  • 14.  
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Explain how and why oil prices have changed in the past 150yrs (10)
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. This graph shows points various oil producing areas reached peak oil
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. Where’s the prospect of new oil? Lesson 4
  • 27.
  • 28. The world’s oil: Conventional oil endowment (cumulative production plus mean estimates of remaining oil reserves and undiscovered oil resources) by province in billion barrels of oil (BBO) for 128 oil provinces. World data are from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 2000 assessment of world petroleum resources; U.S. data are from USGS (1995 assessment) and from the Minerals Management Service (1996 assessment).
  • 29.
  • 30.  
  • 31.  
  • 32.  
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 42.  
  • 43.  
  • 44.  
  • 45.  
  • 46. Opinions “ I hope people understand, in a 20,000-square-mile area, this is 2,000 acres. It is a plot of land the size of LAX that we would want to drill to explore. ," Sarah Palin- John McCain's running mate for 2008 us PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
  • 47.
  • 48. Inupiat Eskimo “ We support the drilling- it will provide jobs for locals and Americans all over the country- it will enable Alaska to further develop energy security and it doesn’t affect us or the caribou migrations we rely on”
  • 49.
  • 50. “ Me not want any of your dirty oil spilling on me food or land- my calves might eat it or step on it”
  • 51. "I strongly reject drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge because it would irreversibly damage a protected national wildlife refuge without creating sufficient oil supplies to meaningfully affect the global market price or have a discernible impact on US energy security."
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54. ANWR FOR developing AGAINST developing SOCIAL/ CULTURAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICAL
  • 55.
  • 56. The tar sands areas in Canada are about the size of Florida.
  • 57. First, forests must be cleared. In this case the trees were stacked and burned.
  • 58. Secondly, strip mining begins. Strip mines in the Canadian oil sands are the largest in the world.
  • 59.  
  • 60. The small trucks are 4 ton service trucks.
  • 61. Following the strip mining, the tar sands are sent to the refinery for processing.
  • 63. Water from nearby rivers is tainted with heavy metals and oil once its used to produce steam. The steam separates the tar from the sand.
  • 64. There is no known way to decontaminate this water. Some of the holding ponds are 30 sq miles.
  • 65. The earthen dam on the left is over 300 feet high. The river immediately adjacent runs to the Artic.
  • 66. From 2000 feet, as far as you can see it’s the same story, a strip mine, a processing plant and a holding pond. Currently this area produces 1 million bbls/day, it 5 years it will be 5 million bbls/day, 20% of our oil supply.
  • 67.
  • 68. While Canada has the tar sands, the U.S. has vast amounts of oil shale. The majority of oil shale is in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. The Bureau of Land Management is actively exploring options for tapping this resource.
  • 69.
  • 70. Tar sand extraction An area of boreal forest the size of Florida is about to be strip mined to provide a few percent of the US liquid fuel reqm’t. First step is to remove the trees.
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73. Who are the key players in Energy Supply
  • 74.  
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.  
  • 79.
  • 80.
  • 81.
  • 82.
  • 83. Use page 32 -35 of Oxford text and 20-21 of PA text and produce a mind-map of the players in the oil game. Players: Cartels State controlled companies TNCs
  • 84. Why do we care about OPEC oil? Who are the main players involved in the supply?
  • 85.
  • 86.
  • 87.  
  • 88. OPEC Member Countries : Country Joined OPEC Location Algeria 1969 Africa Angola 2007 Africa Ecuador(**) rejoined 2007 South America IR Iran* 1960 Middle East Iraq* 1960 Middle East Kuwait* 1960 Middle East SP Libyan AJ 1962 Africa Nigeria 1971 Africa Qatar 1961 Middle East Saudi Arabia* 1960 Middle East United Arab Emirates 1967 Middle East Venezuela* 1960 South America *founder Members ** Ecuador joined OPEC in 1973, suspended its membership from Dec. 1992-Oct. 2007
  • 89.
  • 90.
  • 91.
  • 92.
  • 93.  
  • 94.  
  • 95.  
  • 96.

Notas del editor

  1. Presenter notes: Whatever the cause of the current rises in oil prices, there is good reason to believe we have not yet reached Hubbert’s era of “peak oil” production. One of the effects of higher prices is that oil deposits that were once considered uneconomic to exploit have now become viable. The largest of the these unconventional oil deposits is the Athabasca tar sands of Albert, Canada. Amazingly this deposit contains over half the world’s oil reserves, equal to 1.75 trillion barrels. The oil is mixed together with sand near the surface and is extracted by opencast mining using giant dumper trucks! However, it is very expensive to extract oil from tar sands, so if this source is used extensively, prices are unlikely to fall. Nevertheless, the Athabasca tar sands together with other probable large oilfields in the Arctic and Antarctica will probably stave of oil shortages for several decades to come.