Conducted of FRBC, at Andhra University contact= befor download at soladd2000@yahoo.com

1. CLIMATE CHANGE , ADAPTATION AND FARMERS PERCEPTION :
IN BAHIR DAR ZURIA DISTRICT, AMHARA NATIONAL
REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA
National Conference on Forest Resilience, Biodiversity and
Climate Change, Nov.23-24,2012
BY
Solomon Addisu Legesse
Ph.D. Full Time Research Scholar, Andhra University, Science and
Technology College, Department of Environmental Sciences, Email:
soladd2000@yahoo.com

2. Outline of the presentation
1. Introduction
2. Evidences of climate change in the world/
Ethiopia
3. Climate Trend analysis of BD Zuria District
4. Farmers field experience of climate change
5. Adaptation and Constraints
6. Conclusions and way forward

3. 1. Introduction
Climate change is a change in the" average
weather" that a given region experiences.
– Indicated by elements of weather & climate
– Climate change usually expressed in terms of
temperature and rainfall variability
– If there is statistically significant variation,
According to IPCC (2001), climate change refers to any
change in climate over time whether due to natural
variability or as a result of human activity

4. …cont
The successive absorption and emission of
IR(Long wave Radiation) by the surface of the
earth resulted in green house effect.
Natural GH effect = Optimum condition for the
existence of species
Enhanced GH effect =Global Worming =
Climate related hazards

5. The Natural Greenhouse Effect
• The Earth is covered by a blanket of gas.
• The energy from the Sun reaches the
Earth’s surface, where some it is
converted to heat energy.
• Most of the heat is re-radiated towards
space, but some is trapped by the
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
• This natural effect allows the Earth’s
temperature to be kept at a level
necessary to support life.
5

6. But there is the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• Look how this is
different!
• Much more of the heat
from the sun gets
trapped in the
atmosphere
• So the Earth gets hotter
6

7. Though only 1% of atmospheric gases are greenhouse gases, they are extremely
powerful heat trappers.
By burning fossil fuels faster and faster, humans are effectively piling on more
blankets, heating the planet so much and so quickly that it’s hard for Mother
Nature and human societies to adapt.
7

8. Greenhouse Gases(1%)
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide Carbon dioxide
Nitrous oxide
Ozone
CFC’s
Hydrofluorocarbons
Methane
Perfluorinated carbons
Water
Water vapour
Sulfur hexafluoride
8

9. Top Greenhouse Gas Emitters
19.1 % - United States
9.9% - China
5.1% - Japan
4.3% - Brazil
3.8 % - Germany
2.4% - United Kingdom
1.9% - Indonesia
1.7% - Italy
The combustion of fossil fuels in power generation
9

10. 3. Evidences of climate change
in the World and Ethiopia

11. The CO2 concentration has risen by nearly 100 ppm.
The annual CO2 growth rate was larger during the last 10 years than it has
been since continuous direct atmospheric measurements began
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. (Source: Keeling, C.D. and T.P. Whorf. 2005. Atmospheric CO2 records from
sites in the SIO air sampling network. In Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change. Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.)

12. Average Temperature Over the Past 130 Years
15.0
Average Surface Temperature (°C)
(
14.8
14.6
14.4
14.2
14.0
13.8
13.6
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year 12

13. Summer Arctic sea ice declining:
Source: NOAA
Symbols indicate annual mean values while the smooth blue curve shows
decadal variations.

14. Melting Glaciers/ Ice Caps
14
http://www.savebiogems.org/images/polar/map.gif

15. Global Trends

16. 2. Evidences of climate change in Ethiopia
.
• Drying of Lakes: eg. Lake Haromaya
• Tana lake level declined by 62 cm.
• water surface shrink: area of lake Ziway
predicted to shrink to 25 km2.
• Decrease in flow Basins of rivers
• Extreme events: like Flooding, Frost in the
highlands and Drought in arid areas of the
country:
Source: Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research,2010

17. Figure: Long-term summer rainfall time series of the central highlands of Ethiopia
(1898-1997)

18. The Frequency of Drought in Ethiopia
Year interval Number of disasters Average recurrence
Average recurrence 5 Once in 40 years
12AD-787AD 6 Roughly once in 100 years
832AD-968AD 3 Roughly once in 45 years
1006AD-1200AD 4 Roughly once in 48 years
1252-1340 5 Roughly once in 18 years
1400-1789 26 Roughly once in 15 years
1800-1900 10 Roughly once in 10 years
1900-1987 14 Roughly once in 6 years
1988-2002 5 Roughly once in 3 years
Table: Frequency of occurrences of drought events in Ethiopia (Source: NMSA, 1987)

19. Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by total number
of people affected are:
Disaster Date Total Affected
Drought 2003 12,600,000
Drought May-1983 7,750,000
Drought Jun-1987 7,000,000
Drought Oct-1989 6,500,000
Drought Dec-1973 3,000,000
Drought Nov-2005 2,600,000
Drought Sep-1969 1,700,000
Drought Jul-1965 1,500,000
Drought Feb-1997 986,200
Flood 27-Oct-2006 361,600
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

20. Top 10 Natural Disasters in Ethiopia sorted by economic
damage costs are:
Disaster Date Damage US$ (000's)
Drought Dec-1973 76,000
Drought Jul-1998 15,600
Earthquake 25-Aug-1906 6,750
Flood 23-Apr-2005 5,000
Flood 15-Aug-1994 3,500
Flood 5-Aug-2006 3,200
Flood 20-May-2005 1,200
Drought Sep-1969 1,000
Flood 7-May-1968 920
Earthquake 29-Mar-1969 320
Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, www.em-dat.net

21. 3. Climate Trend analysis of BahirDar
Zuria District
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Rain fall amount

22. Study area Map

23. Cont…

24. 2. Minimum temperature change

25. 3. Annual Average Rainfall amount

26. 5. Farmers field experience of climate
change
• Agriculture is the most important sector in the
economy of Ethiopia :
It represents 47% of the country’s GDP,
contributes about 80% of the total export value
and employs 85% of the population
dependence on rainfall (over 95%).
the largest livestock population in Africa and the
tenth largest in the world.
.

27. Cont…
Variable Responde Variable Respondents
nts in % (%)
Temperature increased 78.0 Precipitation 17.3
increased
Temperature decreased/ 2.0 Precipitation 66.7
decrease
late coming and 83%
early cases of
summer rain
No change 20.0 No change 16.0

28. 5. Adaptation Vs Constraints
Variable Respondents Constraints (%)
(%)
Crop diversification 88.0* Soil fertility 41
Changing planting date 82.0 Lack of extension services 81
Changing the 58.0 Lack of information 62
management
Saving and borrowing 54.6 Access to credit 61
Soil & water 82.4 Land tenure/fragmentation 42
conservation
Planting trees 78.0 Poor potential for irrigations 82
No adaptation 10.0 No constraint 2
* The sum may not add up to 100 % due to repeated responses

29. 6. Conclusions and way forward
• Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable country
to the problems of climate change due to its
rain fed agriculture dependence and
/Subsistence/
• Climate change is severely affecting agricultural
productivity
• Farmers of BDZ District perceived the changes of
climate from their field experiences
• Farmers of BDZ District are trying to adapt
climate change effects, but still have constraints.

30. …cont
• Climate change is real and we need to be doing
something about it
• The longer we wait, the fewer our options
• Regional patterns of warming will be complicated
• Climate surprises can’t be discounted
• Climate change will create regional
agricultural winners and losers

31. THANK YOU