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Human Resource PlanningHuman Resource Planning
(HRP)(HRP)
AN OVERVIEW OF HUMANAN OVERVIEW OF HUMAN
RESOURCE PLANNINGRESOURCE PLANNING
Dr Sorab Sadri and Prof. Jayashree SadriDr Sorab Sadri and Prof. Jayashree Sadri
22
33
HRP: An OverviewHRP: An Overview
 HRP is aHRP is a processprocess ofof analyzing &analyzing &
identifyingidentifying thethe need for & availability ofneed for & availability of
human resourceshuman resources (HR) so that(HR) so that
organization can meet its objectivesorganization can meet its objectives
44
Defining HR PlanningDefining HR Planning
Strategy OrientedStrategy Oriented DEFINITIONDEFINITION
– ““A strategy for the acquisition, utilization, improvement & retention of anA strategy for the acquisition, utilization, improvement & retention of an
organization’s human resources”organization’s human resources”
– AIMS of HRPAIMS of HRP::
1.1. to ensure the optimum use of the people currently employedto ensure the optimum use of the people currently employed
2.2. to provide for the future staffing needs of the organization in terms of skills, number,to provide for the future staffing needs of the organization in terms of skills, number,
& ages of people& ages of people
– HRP establish controlHRP establish control: planner work as a “policeman” who checks whether: planner work as a “policeman” who checks whether
staffing levels are optimumstaffing levels are optimum
Process OrientedProcess Oriented DEFINITIONDEFINITION
– HRP is as aHRP is as a continuous process of analyzingcontinuous process of analyzing an organization’s HR needsan organization’s HR needs
under the changing conditions & developing the activities necessary to satisfyunder the changing conditions & developing the activities necessary to satisfy
these needs like staffing, recruitment, selection, training, etc.these needs like staffing, recruitment, selection, training, etc.
– Process aimed at assisting management to determineProcess aimed at assisting management to determine how the organizationhow the organization
should moveshould move from its current staffing position to its desired staffing positionfrom its current staffing position to its desired staffing position
55
Business Strategy & HRPBusiness Strategy & HRP
Business strategyBusiness strategy
focus (Porter)focus (Porter)
HR strategyHR strategy HRP activitiesHRP activities
Cost leadershipCost leadership
Cost controlCost control
Stable businessStable business
environmentenvironment
Efficiency & qualityEfficiency & quality
Job & employeeJob & employee
specializationspecialization
Employee efficiencyEmployee efficiency
Long HR planning scopeLong HR planning scope
Internal promotionsInternal promotions
Emphasis on trainingEmphasis on training
Hiring & training forHiring & training for
specific capabilitiesspecific capabilities
DifferentiationDifferentiation
Long term focusLong term focus
GrowthGrowth
Creativity in job behaviourCreativity in job behaviour
DecentralizationDecentralization
Shorter HR planningShorter HR planning
scopescope
Hire HR capabilitiesHire HR capabilities
requiredrequired
Flexible jobs & employeesFlexible jobs & employees
External staffingExternal staffing
Hire & train for broadHire & train for broad
competenciescompetencies
66
Business Strategy & HRPBusiness Strategy & HRP
Business strategyBusiness strategy
focus (Miles &focus (Miles &
Snow)Snow)
HR strategyHR strategy HRP activitiesHRP activities
DefenderDefender
Finds change threateningFinds change threatening
Favors strategies whichFavors strategies which
encourage continuity &encourage continuity &
securitysecurity
Bureaucratic approachBureaucratic approach
Planned & regularlyPlanned & regularly
maintained policies tomaintained policies to
provide for lean HRprovide for lean HR
Build HRBuild HR
Likely to emphasizeLikely to emphasize
training programs & internaltraining programs & internal
promotionpromotion
ProspectorProspector
Succeed on changeSucceed on change
Favors strategies ofFavors strategies of
product & / or marketproduct & / or market
developmentdevelopment
Creative & flexibleCreative & flexible
management stylemanagement style
Have high quality HRHave high quality HR
Emphasize redeploymentEmphasize redeployment
& flexibility of HR& flexibility of HR
Little opportunity for long-Little opportunity for long-
term HRPterm HRP
Acquire HRAcquire HR
Likely to emphasizeLikely to emphasize
recruitment, selection &recruitment, selection &
performance baseperformance base
compensationcompensation
77
Perspectives of HRPPerspectives of HRP
 MACRO HRP –
 Assessing & forecasting demand for & availability of skills at national /
global level
 Predict the kinds of skills that will be required in future & compare these
with what is / will be available in the country
 Eg.
 Gillette merger with P&G whereby decided to restructure & move from
business units based on geographic regions to global business units based
on product lines which resulted in redundancy of some employees
(Relocation to Singapore & VRS for others)
 MICRO HRP –
 Process of forecasting demand for & supply of HR for specific
organization
 Eg.
 Wipro (a software giant in India) raising wages / short-listing students in their
2nd
yr. of college for future employment in India
 Genpact (an IT solution company in India) launching an associate trainee
program with Osmania University in India
88
JOB ANALYSISJOB ANALYSIS
99
Terminology commonly used in JATerminology commonly used in JA
literatureliterature JOB – group of positions that have similar duties, tasks, &
responsibilities
 POSITION – set of duties & responsibilities performed
by one person
 A job is a general term, a position is more specific.
 Eg. as my job, I am a teacher. But to be specific, my position is
Elementary Gifted Specialist.
Eg. someone might work at the grocery store as their job, but
specifically, their position is produce assistant.
 JOB FAMILY – group of 2 / more jobs that have similar
duties / characteristics
 TASK – separate, distinct & identifiable work activity
 DUTY – several tasks that are performed by an individual
1010
Terminology commonly used in JATerminology commonly used in JA
literatureliterature RESPONSIBILITIES – obligations to perform certain tasks
& duties
 DUTY**BEHAVIOR SHOWING A PROPER REGARD / SENSE OF
OBLIGATION, JUSTICE MORALITY, OCCUPATION OR POSITION.
 RESPONSIBILITY**OBLIGATION,TO DO WHAT IS ASK,IF YOU
SAY YOUR GOING TO DO SOMEHTHING DO IT,TRUST,HONEST,
TO CARE FOR ANOTHER WHEN ONE
 JOB DESIGN – process to ensure that individuals have
meaningful work & one that fits in effectively with other jobs
 JOB DESCRIPTION – written summary of the content &
context of the job, outlining the tasks, duties, &
responsibilities of a job, as well as performance standards of
each job
 JOB SPECIFICATION – written statement of the KSA &
other characteristics (human requirements) that are
necessary for performing the job effectively & satisfactorily
1111
Information obtained from JAInformation obtained from JA
What is to be done? How is to be done?What is to be done? How is to be done?
(CONTENT)(CONTENT)
Under what conditions is the job to beUnder what conditions is the job to be
done (CONTEXT)done (CONTEXT)
What KSA & other characteristics areWhat KSA & other characteristics are
required to perform the job (HUMANrequired to perform the job (HUMAN
REQUIREMENTS)REQUIREMENTS)
1212
Information obtained from JAInformation obtained from JA
 JOB CONTENTJOB CONTENT
 Duties & responsibilitiesDuties & responsibilities
 Job demandsJob demands
 Machines, tools, & equipmentMachines, tools, & equipment
 Performance standardsPerformance standards
 JOB CONTEXTJOB CONTEXT
 Physical, organizational & social contextPhysical, organizational & social context
 Work conditions, & work scheduleWork conditions, & work schedule
 HUMAN REQUIREMENTSHUMAN REQUIREMENTS
 KSA,KSA,
 Education, Experience & personal attributes (personality,Education, Experience & personal attributes (personality,
interests, etc.)interests, etc.)
1313
Components of a JAComponents of a JA
 JOB DESCRIPTIONJOB DESCRIPTION
 Statement of tasks, duties, responsibilities, & contextStatement of tasks, duties, responsibilities, & context
of the jobof the job
 JOB SPECIFICATIONJOB SPECIFICATION
 KSA required to perform the job satisfactorilyKSA required to perform the job satisfactorily
 JOB EVALUATIONJOB EVALUATION
 Comparison of relative value of jobs in organizationComparison of relative value of jobs in organization
for making compensation decisionsfor making compensation decisions
1414
Methods of collecting information for JAMethods of collecting information for JA
Number of ways – may be used inNumber of ways – may be used in
combination or in isolationcombination or in isolation
METHODS:METHODS:
InterviewsInterviews
QuestionnairesQuestionnaires
ObservationsObservations
Participant diaryParticipant diary
1515
JA ProcessJA Process
 Determine purpose of JADetermine purpose of JA
 Review organization chartReview organization chart
 OC shows the division of work in organization, howOC shows the division of work in organization, how
the job in question related to other jobs, how the jobthe job in question related to other jobs, how the job
fits into the overall organization, who reports to whom,fits into the overall organization, who reports to whom,
& whom the incumbent reports to& whom the incumbent reports to
 Select representative jobs for analysisSelect representative jobs for analysis
 Analyze jobs using data gathering methodsAnalyze jobs using data gathering methods
 Check information for accuracyCheck information for accuracy
 Write JD & JS for use in HR activitiesWrite JD & JS for use in HR activities
1616
Writing JDsWriting JDs
Job title & identificationJob title & identification
Job summaryJob summary
RelationshipsRelationships
Responsibilities & dutiesResponsibilities & duties
Standards of performance & workingStandards of performance & working
conditionsconditions
Equipment & toolsEquipment & tools
Working conditionsWorking conditions
1717
HRP ProcessHRP Process
 HRP PROCESS:HRP PROCESS:
1.1. Environmental scanningEnvironmental scanning
2.2. Forecasting & analyzing demand for HRForecasting & analyzing demand for HR
3.3. Forecasting & analyzing supply of HRForecasting & analyzing supply of HR
4.4. Developing action plans to match HRDeveloping action plans to match HR
demand & supplydemand & supply
1818
Environmental ScanningEnvironmental Scanning
 Systematic process of studying & monitoring theSystematic process of studying & monitoring the
external environment of the organization in orderexternal environment of the organization in order
to pinpoint opportunities & threatsto pinpoint opportunities & threats
 Involves long range analysis of employmentInvolves long range analysis of employment
 Factors include economic factors, competitiveFactors include economic factors, competitive
trends, technological changes, socio-culturaltrends, technological changes, socio-cultural
changes, politico-legal considerations, labourchanges, politico-legal considerations, labour
force composition & supply, & demographicforce composition & supply, & demographic
trendstrends
1919
Environmental ScanningEnvironmental Scanning
 Eg., competitive pressures are likely to increase resulting inEg., competitive pressures are likely to increase resulting in
enhanced productivity requirements & HRP objective may be ‘toenhanced productivity requirements & HRP objective may be ‘to
increase employee productivity by 5% in 2 yrs.’ which will requireincrease employee productivity by 5% in 2 yrs.’ which will require
the firm to determine current employee productivity (output /the firm to determine current employee productivity (output /
employees)employees)
 Attempts to answer 2 questions:Attempts to answer 2 questions:
 Which jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months?Which jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months?
 How & where will we get people to fill (or vacate) these jobs?How & where will we get people to fill (or vacate) these jobs?
 Demand & supply of labour in loose & tight labour marketDemand & supply of labour in loose & tight labour market
 Major impact of the shortage of skilled workforce (tight labour market) inMajor impact of the shortage of skilled workforce (tight labour market) in
India has been on staff cost (increased by 35% in 2005)India has been on staff cost (increased by 35% in 2005)
 Fast growing sectors like retail, ITeS, telecom are new & do not haveFast growing sectors like retail, ITeS, telecom are new & do not have
historical talent to bank on & hence they are hiring from other sectorshistorical talent to bank on & hence they are hiring from other sectors
with skill sets that are relevant to their industrieswith skill sets that are relevant to their industries
2020
Forecasting HR DemandForecasting HR Demand
 FORECASTING ‘makes use of information fromFORECASTING ‘makes use of information from
the past & present to identify expected futurethe past & present to identify expected future
conditions’.conditions’.
 Forecasts are not perfectly accurate & as theForecasts are not perfectly accurate & as the
planning scope becomes shorter the accuracy ofplanning scope becomes shorter the accuracy of
forecasts increasesforecasts increases
 HR demand forecasts may be internal / externalHR demand forecasts may be internal / external
2121
Qualitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQualitative Methods of Demand Forecasting
Method Advantages Disadvantages
Estimatio
n
People in position estimate
the number of people the firm
will require in the next yr.
Incorporates knowledge
of corporate plans in
making estimates
May be subjective
Expert
opinion
Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business
scenarios. For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several
experts may be pooled together
Delphi Experts go through several
rounds of estimates with no
face-to-face meeting
Incorporates future plans
& knowledge of experts
related to mkt., industry
& technical development
Subjective, time
consuming & may
ignore data
Group
brainstor
ming
Face-to-face discussion based
on multiple assumptions about
future business direction
Generates lot of ideas Does not lead to
conclusion
Nominal
group
technique
Face-to-face discussion Group exchanges
facilitate plans
Subjective which may
ignore data
Simple
averaging
Simple averaging of
viewpoints
Diverse view points taken Extremes views are
masked when
averaged
2222
Quantitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQuantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting
Method Advantages Disadvantages
Trend
analysis
&
projectio
n
Based on past relationship between a business factor related to
employment & employment level itself
Simple
long-run
trend
analysis
Extrapolates past
relationship between
volume of business
activity & employment
levels into the future
Recognizes linkage
between employment
& business activity
Assumes that
volume of business
activity of firm for
forecast period will
continue at same
rate as previous
yrs
Ignores multiplicity
of factors
influencing
employment levelsRegressi
on
analysis
Regresses employment
needs onto key variables
Data driven
Uses multiple
business factors
Difficult to use &
apply
2323
Quantitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQuantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting
Method Advantages Disadvantages
Simulati
on
models
Uses probabilities of
future events to estimate
future employment levels
Makes several
assumptions about the
future regarding
external & internal
environment
Simultaneously
examines several
factors
Costly &
complicated
Workloa
d
analysis
Based on actual content of
work
HR requirements
based on expected
output of the firm
Productivity changes
taken into account
Job analysis may
not be accurate
Difficult to apply
Markov
analysis
Probabilistic
Based on past relationship
between business factor
related to employment &
employment level itself
Data driven Assumes that
nature of jobs has
not changed over
time
Applicable to
stable environment
2424
Causes of DemandCauses of Demand
EXTERNAL CHALLENGES:
– Economic developments – noticeable effect but are
difficult to estimate (Inflation, unemployment, &
changing workforce patterns)
– Social, political & legal challenges – easier to
predict, but their implications are not very clear
(Implication of abolishing mandatory retirement age in
US may not be known until a generation has lived
without “65 & out” tradition)
– Technology changes – difficult to predict & assess
but may radically alter strategic & HR plans (PC would
cause mass unemployment vis-à-vis IT field as a large
one employing millions of people directly / indirectly –
complicates HR, because it tends to reduce
employment in one dept. while increasing it in another)
2525
Causes of DemandCauses of Demand
ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS:
– As orgs. respond to changes in their environment, decisions are
made to modify the strategic plan, which commits firm to long-
range objectives – growth rates & new products, markets /
services & these objectives dictate number & types of employees
needed in future
– To achieve long-term objectives, HR specialists must develop
long-range HR plans that accommodate strategic plan
– In short run, planners find strategic plans become operational in
form of budgets
– Sales & production forecasts are less exact than budgets but
may provide even quicker notice of short-run changes in demand
for HR
– New ventures means changing HR demands – when a new
venture is begun internally from scratch, lead time may allow
planners to develop short-run & long-run employment plans –
merging HR group with Corporate Planning staff
2626
Causes of DemandCauses of Demand
WORKFORCE FACTORS (ATTRITION):
– Demand is modified by employee actions such as
 retirements,
 resignations,
 terminations,
 death, &
 leaves of absence
– Analysis Technique – Markov Analysis of
Attrition Rates
2727
Forecasting TechniquesForecasting Techniques
Trend Projection Forecasts:Trend Projection Forecasts:
– Quickest forecasting techniquesQuickest forecasting techniques
– Two simplest methods –Two simplest methods –
1.1. ExtrapolationExtrapolation: involves extending past rates of change into future: involves extending past rates of change into future
(if an avg of 20 production workers was hired each month for(if an avg of 20 production workers was hired each month for
past 2 yrs, extrapolating that trend into future means that 240past 2 yrs, extrapolating that trend into future means that 240
production workers will be added during upcoming yr.)production workers will be added during upcoming yr.)
2.2. IndexationIndexation: a method of estimating future employment needs by: a method of estimating future employment needs by
matching employment growth with an index, such as ratio ofmatching employment growth with an index, such as ratio of
production employees to sales (eg., for each million $ increase inproduction employees to sales (eg., for each million $ increase in
sales, production deptt. requires 10 new assemblers)sales, production deptt. requires 10 new assemblers)
– Both are crude approximations in short run because theyBoth are crude approximations in short run because they
assume that causes of demand remain constant which isassume that causes of demand remain constant which is
seldom the case – making it very inaccurate for long-seldom the case – making it very inaccurate for long-
range HR projectionsrange HR projections
2828
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
TREND ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONTREND ANALYSIS & PROJECTION
• Study of firm’s past employment needs over a period of yrs. to predictStudy of firm’s past employment needs over a period of yrs. to predict
future needsfuture needs
• Appropriate business factor that relates significantly to employment levelsAppropriate business factor that relates significantly to employment levels
differs across industries (University – student enrollment, Sales firm –differs across industries (University – student enrollment, Sales firm –
sales volume, Manufacturing firm – total units produced)sales volume, Manufacturing firm – total units produced)
• Steps:Steps:
1.1. Determine &Determine & identify a business factoridentify a business factor that relates to the number & type ofthat relates to the number & type of
people employedpeople employed
2.2. Identify historical trendIdentify historical trend of the relationship between this business factor & theof the relationship between this business factor & the
number of people employednumber of people employed
3.3. Determine the ratioDetermine the ratio of employees to the business factor, that is, the averageof employees to the business factor, that is, the average
output per individual employee per year – labour productivityoutput per individual employee per year – labour productivity
4.4. Determine the labour productivity ratioDetermine the labour productivity ratio for the past 5 yrs at least & calculate thefor the past 5 yrs at least & calculate the
average annual rate of change in productivityaverage annual rate of change in productivity
5.5. Calculate the human resource demandCalculate the human resource demand by dividing the business factor by theby dividing the business factor by the
productivity ratioproductivity ratio
6.6. ProjectProject human resource demand for the target year.human resource demand for the target year.
2929
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
SIMPLE LONG-RANGE TREND ANALYSISSIMPLE LONG-RANGE TREND ANALYSIS
• ExtrapolatesExtrapolates the volume of currentthe volume of current
business activity for the years for whichbusiness activity for the years for which
the forecast is being madethe forecast is being made
• Since there is a correlation betweenSince there is a correlation between
volume of business activity &volume of business activity &
employment level,employment level, linear extrapolationlinear extrapolation
would also indicate HR demand by job &would also indicate HR demand by job &
skill categoryskill category
3030
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
RATIO ANALYSISRATIO ANALYSIS
• RATIO between output & manpower deployedRATIO between output & manpower deployed
to achieve that output is established at a givento achieve that output is established at a given
point of timepoint of time
• Eg., revenue per employee, sales vol. perEg., revenue per employee, sales vol. per
salesperson, service contract per engineer, unitssalesperson, service contract per engineer, units
produced per employee, etc.,produced per employee, etc.,
• Historical ratio between:Historical ratio between:
• Some causal factor (sales volume)Some causal factor (sales volume)
• No. of employees required (number of salesperson)No. of employees required (number of salesperson)
3131
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
REGRESSION ANALYSISREGRESSION ANALYSIS
• Drawing a statistical comparison of pastDrawing a statistical comparison of past
relationship among variablesrelationship among variables
• Statistical relationship between no. ofStatistical relationship between no. of
patients (business factor) & employmentpatients (business factor) & employment
level of nurses in a nursing home may belevel of nurses in a nursing home may be
useful in forecasting the no. of employeesuseful in forecasting the no. of employees
that will be needed if the no. of patientsthat will be needed if the no. of patients
increases by say 20%increases by say 20%
3232
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
LINEAR REGRESSIONLINEAR REGRESSION
ANALYSISANALYSIS
• Relationship between twoRelationship between two
variables which is directlyvariables which is directly
& precisely proportional& precisely proportional
• Production output &Production output &
manpower are the twomanpower are the two
variables & thevariables & the
relationship between theserelationship between these
two is plotted on a graphtwo is plotted on a graph
by drawing a “line of bestby drawing a “line of best
fit”fit”
• Analysis aims at providingAnalysis aims at providing
a measure of the extent toa measure of the extent to
which changes in thewhich changes in the
values of two variables arevalues of two variables are
correlated with one anothercorrelated with one another
X
a
b Y
Manpower
Production level
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
3333
Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation
MARKOV ANALYSISMARKOV ANALYSIS
• Shows the percentage (& actual no.) of employee who remain inShows the percentage (& actual no.) of employee who remain in
each job from one yr. to the next, as also the proportion of thoseeach job from one yr. to the next, as also the proportion of those
who are promoted or transferred or who exit the organizationwho are promoted or transferred or who exit the organization
• Internal mobility among different job classifications can be forecastInternal mobility among different job classifications can be forecast
based upon past movement patterns – past patterns of employeebased upon past movement patterns – past patterns of employee
movements (transitions) used to project future patternsmovements (transitions) used to project future patterns
• Pattern is used to establish transitional probabilities & to develop aPattern is used to establish transitional probabilities & to develop a
transition matrixtransition matrix
• Transitional probabilities:Transitional probabilities:
• Indicate what will happen to the initial staffing levels in each jobIndicate what will happen to the initial staffing levels in each job
category / probability that employee from one job category will movecategory / probability that employee from one job category will move
into another job categoryinto another job category
• Determine the forecasted employee levels at the end of the yrDetermine the forecasted employee levels at the end of the yr
3434
Forecasting & Analyzing HRForecasting & Analyzing HR
SupplySupply
– Internal supply forecasts relate toInternal supply forecasts relate to
conditions inside the org. such as ageconditions inside the org. such as age
distribution of workforce, terminations,distribution of workforce, terminations,
retirements, etc.retirements, etc.
– External supply forecasts relate toExternal supply forecasts relate to
external labour market conditions &external labour market conditions &
estimates of supply of labour to beestimates of supply of labour to be
available to the firm in the future inavailable to the firm in the future in
different categoriesdifferent categories
3535
Methods of Forecasting External HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting External HR Supply
INTERRELATED FACTORS THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED IN PROJECTINGINTERRELATED FACTORS THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED IN PROJECTING
EXTERNAL HR SUPPLYEXTERNAL HR SUPPLY
• Government estimates of population available for workGovernment estimates of population available for work
• Net migration into and out of the areaNet migration into and out of the area
• Numbers entering the workplaceNumbers entering the workplace
• Numbers leaving the workplaceNumbers leaving the workplace
• Numbers graduating from schools / collegesNumbers graduating from schools / colleges
• Changing workforce compositionChanging workforce composition
• Technological shiftsTechnological shifts
• Industrial shiftsIndustrial shifts
• Trends in the industry (actions of competing employers)Trends in the industry (actions of competing employers)
• Economic forecastsEconomic forecasts
• Government regulations & pressures such as job reservations for certainGovernment regulations & pressures such as job reservations for certain
groupsgroups
3636
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY
• Obtains & stores information about each employee of the org. in a mannerObtains & stores information about each employee of the org. in a manner
that is easily accessible because it is necessary for HRPthat is easily accessible because it is necessary for HRP
• Employee information stored in the inventory relates to KSA, experience,Employee information stored in the inventory relates to KSA, experience,
& career aspirations of the present workforce of the firm& career aspirations of the present workforce of the firm
• Contents of HR InventoryContents of HR Inventory
• Personal identification informationPersonal identification information
• Biographical informationBiographical information
• Educational achievementsEducational achievements
• Employment historyEmployment history
• Information about present jobInformation about present job
• Present skills, abilities, & competenciesPresent skills, abilities, & competencies
• Future focused dataFuture focused data
• Specific actions (like training needed for achieving career goals)Specific actions (like training needed for achieving career goals)
3737
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY
• 2 types –2 types –
• Skills inventory: describes the skills &Skills inventory: describes the skills &
knowledge of non-managerial employees &knowledge of non-managerial employees &
is used primarily for making placement &is used primarily for making placement &
promotion decisionspromotion decisions
• Management inventory: contains the sameManagement inventory: contains the same
information as in skills inventory, but only forinformation as in skills inventory, but only for
managerial employees which describes themanagerial employees which describes the
work history, strengths, weaknesses,work history, strengths, weaknesses,
promotion potential, career goalspromotion potential, career goals
3838
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY
• Can be used to develop employee replacementCan be used to develop employee replacement
chartscharts
• Replacement charts – lists current jobholders &Replacement charts – lists current jobholders &
identifies possible replacements should there be aidentifies possible replacements should there be a
vacancy for reasons such as resignations, transfers,vacancy for reasons such as resignations, transfers,
promotions, etc.promotions, etc.
• Replacement charts include the following informationReplacement charts include the following information
on possible replacements like current jobon possible replacements like current job
performance, potential for promotion, trainingperformance, potential for promotion, training
experience required by replacement to be ready forexperience required by replacement to be ready for
the key positionthe key position
• Chart also details ‘when’ a replacement is neededChart also details ‘when’ a replacement is needed
for a ‘job’ – short term forecasts in naturefor a ‘job’ – short term forecasts in nature
3939
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
SUCCESSION ANALYSIS & PLANNINGSUCCESSION ANALYSIS & PLANNING
• A systematic & deliberate process of identifying,A systematic & deliberate process of identifying,
developing & tracking key individuals within the firm todeveloping & tracking key individuals within the firm to
prepare them for assuming senior & top-level positionsprepare them for assuming senior & top-level positions
in future.in future.
• Eg., SAIL poaching from global players & preparing aEg., SAIL poaching from global players & preparing a
‘defence system’ wherein 2‘defence system’ wherein 2ndnd
& 3& 3rdrd
line of command isline of command is
being prepared; IBM, ExxonMobil, GE, etc., havebeing prepared; IBM, ExxonMobil, GE, etc., have
already hired its CEO for 2010already hired its CEO for 2010
• Eg., Godrej, Marico (fly. owned business) in India haveEg., Godrej, Marico (fly. owned business) in India have
‘drop dead’ succession plan which keeps the wheel‘drop dead’ succession plan which keeps the wheel
moving where a promoter of the fly-owned firm maymoving where a promoter of the fly-owned firm may
always be around to guide the companyalways be around to guide the company
4040
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
LABOUR WASTAGE ANALYSISLABOUR WASTAGE ANALYSIS
• Traditionally LW is measured by the employeeTraditionally LW is measured by the employee
turnover index (% wastage index)turnover index (% wastage index)
• (No. of empls leave in mth / avg. empls) x 100(No. of empls leave in mth / avg. empls) x 100
• Turnover classified into:Turnover classified into:
• Avoidable separations (resignations & dismissal)Avoidable separations (resignations & dismissal)
• Unavoidable separations (retirement, death, &Unavoidable separations (retirement, death, &
marriage)marriage)
• Turnover rate = [(S-US) / M] x 100Turnover rate = [(S-US) / M] x 100
4141
Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply
ABSENTEEISM RATEABSENTEEISM RATE
No. of man-days lost due to absenceNo. of man-days lost due to absence
from work during the periodfrom work during the period
ARAR = --------------------------------------- x 100= --------------------------------------- x 100
Avg. number of Total numberAvg. number of Total number
empls. during this pd. of daysempls. during this pd. of days
4242
Thank YouThank You

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An overview of HRP

  • 1. Human Resource PlanningHuman Resource Planning (HRP)(HRP)
  • 2. AN OVERVIEW OF HUMANAN OVERVIEW OF HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNINGRESOURCE PLANNING Dr Sorab Sadri and Prof. Jayashree SadriDr Sorab Sadri and Prof. Jayashree Sadri 22
  • 3. 33 HRP: An OverviewHRP: An Overview  HRP is aHRP is a processprocess ofof analyzing &analyzing & identifyingidentifying thethe need for & availability ofneed for & availability of human resourceshuman resources (HR) so that(HR) so that organization can meet its objectivesorganization can meet its objectives
  • 4. 44 Defining HR PlanningDefining HR Planning Strategy OrientedStrategy Oriented DEFINITIONDEFINITION – ““A strategy for the acquisition, utilization, improvement & retention of anA strategy for the acquisition, utilization, improvement & retention of an organization’s human resources”organization’s human resources” – AIMS of HRPAIMS of HRP:: 1.1. to ensure the optimum use of the people currently employedto ensure the optimum use of the people currently employed 2.2. to provide for the future staffing needs of the organization in terms of skills, number,to provide for the future staffing needs of the organization in terms of skills, number, & ages of people& ages of people – HRP establish controlHRP establish control: planner work as a “policeman” who checks whether: planner work as a “policeman” who checks whether staffing levels are optimumstaffing levels are optimum Process OrientedProcess Oriented DEFINITIONDEFINITION – HRP is as aHRP is as a continuous process of analyzingcontinuous process of analyzing an organization’s HR needsan organization’s HR needs under the changing conditions & developing the activities necessary to satisfyunder the changing conditions & developing the activities necessary to satisfy these needs like staffing, recruitment, selection, training, etc.these needs like staffing, recruitment, selection, training, etc. – Process aimed at assisting management to determineProcess aimed at assisting management to determine how the organizationhow the organization should moveshould move from its current staffing position to its desired staffing positionfrom its current staffing position to its desired staffing position
  • 5. 55 Business Strategy & HRPBusiness Strategy & HRP Business strategyBusiness strategy focus (Porter)focus (Porter) HR strategyHR strategy HRP activitiesHRP activities Cost leadershipCost leadership Cost controlCost control Stable businessStable business environmentenvironment Efficiency & qualityEfficiency & quality Job & employeeJob & employee specializationspecialization Employee efficiencyEmployee efficiency Long HR planning scopeLong HR planning scope Internal promotionsInternal promotions Emphasis on trainingEmphasis on training Hiring & training forHiring & training for specific capabilitiesspecific capabilities DifferentiationDifferentiation Long term focusLong term focus GrowthGrowth Creativity in job behaviourCreativity in job behaviour DecentralizationDecentralization Shorter HR planningShorter HR planning scopescope Hire HR capabilitiesHire HR capabilities requiredrequired Flexible jobs & employeesFlexible jobs & employees External staffingExternal staffing Hire & train for broadHire & train for broad competenciescompetencies
  • 6. 66 Business Strategy & HRPBusiness Strategy & HRP Business strategyBusiness strategy focus (Miles &focus (Miles & Snow)Snow) HR strategyHR strategy HRP activitiesHRP activities DefenderDefender Finds change threateningFinds change threatening Favors strategies whichFavors strategies which encourage continuity &encourage continuity & securitysecurity Bureaucratic approachBureaucratic approach Planned & regularlyPlanned & regularly maintained policies tomaintained policies to provide for lean HRprovide for lean HR Build HRBuild HR Likely to emphasizeLikely to emphasize training programs & internaltraining programs & internal promotionpromotion ProspectorProspector Succeed on changeSucceed on change Favors strategies ofFavors strategies of product & / or marketproduct & / or market developmentdevelopment Creative & flexibleCreative & flexible management stylemanagement style Have high quality HRHave high quality HR Emphasize redeploymentEmphasize redeployment & flexibility of HR& flexibility of HR Little opportunity for long-Little opportunity for long- term HRPterm HRP Acquire HRAcquire HR Likely to emphasizeLikely to emphasize recruitment, selection &recruitment, selection & performance baseperformance base compensationcompensation
  • 7. 77 Perspectives of HRPPerspectives of HRP  MACRO HRP –  Assessing & forecasting demand for & availability of skills at national / global level  Predict the kinds of skills that will be required in future & compare these with what is / will be available in the country  Eg.  Gillette merger with P&G whereby decided to restructure & move from business units based on geographic regions to global business units based on product lines which resulted in redundancy of some employees (Relocation to Singapore & VRS for others)  MICRO HRP –  Process of forecasting demand for & supply of HR for specific organization  Eg.  Wipro (a software giant in India) raising wages / short-listing students in their 2nd yr. of college for future employment in India  Genpact (an IT solution company in India) launching an associate trainee program with Osmania University in India
  • 9. 99 Terminology commonly used in JATerminology commonly used in JA literatureliterature JOB – group of positions that have similar duties, tasks, & responsibilities  POSITION – set of duties & responsibilities performed by one person  A job is a general term, a position is more specific.  Eg. as my job, I am a teacher. But to be specific, my position is Elementary Gifted Specialist. Eg. someone might work at the grocery store as their job, but specifically, their position is produce assistant.  JOB FAMILY – group of 2 / more jobs that have similar duties / characteristics  TASK – separate, distinct & identifiable work activity  DUTY – several tasks that are performed by an individual
  • 10. 1010 Terminology commonly used in JATerminology commonly used in JA literatureliterature RESPONSIBILITIES – obligations to perform certain tasks & duties  DUTY**BEHAVIOR SHOWING A PROPER REGARD / SENSE OF OBLIGATION, JUSTICE MORALITY, OCCUPATION OR POSITION.  RESPONSIBILITY**OBLIGATION,TO DO WHAT IS ASK,IF YOU SAY YOUR GOING TO DO SOMEHTHING DO IT,TRUST,HONEST, TO CARE FOR ANOTHER WHEN ONE  JOB DESIGN – process to ensure that individuals have meaningful work & one that fits in effectively with other jobs  JOB DESCRIPTION – written summary of the content & context of the job, outlining the tasks, duties, & responsibilities of a job, as well as performance standards of each job  JOB SPECIFICATION – written statement of the KSA & other characteristics (human requirements) that are necessary for performing the job effectively & satisfactorily
  • 11. 1111 Information obtained from JAInformation obtained from JA What is to be done? How is to be done?What is to be done? How is to be done? (CONTENT)(CONTENT) Under what conditions is the job to beUnder what conditions is the job to be done (CONTEXT)done (CONTEXT) What KSA & other characteristics areWhat KSA & other characteristics are required to perform the job (HUMANrequired to perform the job (HUMAN REQUIREMENTS)REQUIREMENTS)
  • 12. 1212 Information obtained from JAInformation obtained from JA  JOB CONTENTJOB CONTENT  Duties & responsibilitiesDuties & responsibilities  Job demandsJob demands  Machines, tools, & equipmentMachines, tools, & equipment  Performance standardsPerformance standards  JOB CONTEXTJOB CONTEXT  Physical, organizational & social contextPhysical, organizational & social context  Work conditions, & work scheduleWork conditions, & work schedule  HUMAN REQUIREMENTSHUMAN REQUIREMENTS  KSA,KSA,  Education, Experience & personal attributes (personality,Education, Experience & personal attributes (personality, interests, etc.)interests, etc.)
  • 13. 1313 Components of a JAComponents of a JA  JOB DESCRIPTIONJOB DESCRIPTION  Statement of tasks, duties, responsibilities, & contextStatement of tasks, duties, responsibilities, & context of the jobof the job  JOB SPECIFICATIONJOB SPECIFICATION  KSA required to perform the job satisfactorilyKSA required to perform the job satisfactorily  JOB EVALUATIONJOB EVALUATION  Comparison of relative value of jobs in organizationComparison of relative value of jobs in organization for making compensation decisionsfor making compensation decisions
  • 14. 1414 Methods of collecting information for JAMethods of collecting information for JA Number of ways – may be used inNumber of ways – may be used in combination or in isolationcombination or in isolation METHODS:METHODS: InterviewsInterviews QuestionnairesQuestionnaires ObservationsObservations Participant diaryParticipant diary
  • 15. 1515 JA ProcessJA Process  Determine purpose of JADetermine purpose of JA  Review organization chartReview organization chart  OC shows the division of work in organization, howOC shows the division of work in organization, how the job in question related to other jobs, how the jobthe job in question related to other jobs, how the job fits into the overall organization, who reports to whom,fits into the overall organization, who reports to whom, & whom the incumbent reports to& whom the incumbent reports to  Select representative jobs for analysisSelect representative jobs for analysis  Analyze jobs using data gathering methodsAnalyze jobs using data gathering methods  Check information for accuracyCheck information for accuracy  Write JD & JS for use in HR activitiesWrite JD & JS for use in HR activities
  • 16. 1616 Writing JDsWriting JDs Job title & identificationJob title & identification Job summaryJob summary RelationshipsRelationships Responsibilities & dutiesResponsibilities & duties Standards of performance & workingStandards of performance & working conditionsconditions Equipment & toolsEquipment & tools Working conditionsWorking conditions
  • 17. 1717 HRP ProcessHRP Process  HRP PROCESS:HRP PROCESS: 1.1. Environmental scanningEnvironmental scanning 2.2. Forecasting & analyzing demand for HRForecasting & analyzing demand for HR 3.3. Forecasting & analyzing supply of HRForecasting & analyzing supply of HR 4.4. Developing action plans to match HRDeveloping action plans to match HR demand & supplydemand & supply
  • 18. 1818 Environmental ScanningEnvironmental Scanning  Systematic process of studying & monitoring theSystematic process of studying & monitoring the external environment of the organization in orderexternal environment of the organization in order to pinpoint opportunities & threatsto pinpoint opportunities & threats  Involves long range analysis of employmentInvolves long range analysis of employment  Factors include economic factors, competitiveFactors include economic factors, competitive trends, technological changes, socio-culturaltrends, technological changes, socio-cultural changes, politico-legal considerations, labourchanges, politico-legal considerations, labour force composition & supply, & demographicforce composition & supply, & demographic trendstrends
  • 19. 1919 Environmental ScanningEnvironmental Scanning  Eg., competitive pressures are likely to increase resulting inEg., competitive pressures are likely to increase resulting in enhanced productivity requirements & HRP objective may be ‘toenhanced productivity requirements & HRP objective may be ‘to increase employee productivity by 5% in 2 yrs.’ which will requireincrease employee productivity by 5% in 2 yrs.’ which will require the firm to determine current employee productivity (output /the firm to determine current employee productivity (output / employees)employees)  Attempts to answer 2 questions:Attempts to answer 2 questions:  Which jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months?Which jobs need to be filled (or vacated) during the next 12 months?  How & where will we get people to fill (or vacate) these jobs?How & where will we get people to fill (or vacate) these jobs?  Demand & supply of labour in loose & tight labour marketDemand & supply of labour in loose & tight labour market  Major impact of the shortage of skilled workforce (tight labour market) inMajor impact of the shortage of skilled workforce (tight labour market) in India has been on staff cost (increased by 35% in 2005)India has been on staff cost (increased by 35% in 2005)  Fast growing sectors like retail, ITeS, telecom are new & do not haveFast growing sectors like retail, ITeS, telecom are new & do not have historical talent to bank on & hence they are hiring from other sectorshistorical talent to bank on & hence they are hiring from other sectors with skill sets that are relevant to their industrieswith skill sets that are relevant to their industries
  • 20. 2020 Forecasting HR DemandForecasting HR Demand  FORECASTING ‘makes use of information fromFORECASTING ‘makes use of information from the past & present to identify expected futurethe past & present to identify expected future conditions’.conditions’.  Forecasts are not perfectly accurate & as theForecasts are not perfectly accurate & as the planning scope becomes shorter the accuracy ofplanning scope becomes shorter the accuracy of forecasts increasesforecasts increases  HR demand forecasts may be internal / externalHR demand forecasts may be internal / external
  • 21. 2121 Qualitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQualitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Estimatio n People in position estimate the number of people the firm will require in the next yr. Incorporates knowledge of corporate plans in making estimates May be subjective Expert opinion Panel of experts forecast HR requirements for particular future business scenarios. For this method, there may be a single expert, or estimates of several experts may be pooled together Delphi Experts go through several rounds of estimates with no face-to-face meeting Incorporates future plans & knowledge of experts related to mkt., industry & technical development Subjective, time consuming & may ignore data Group brainstor ming Face-to-face discussion based on multiple assumptions about future business direction Generates lot of ideas Does not lead to conclusion Nominal group technique Face-to-face discussion Group exchanges facilitate plans Subjective which may ignore data Simple averaging Simple averaging of viewpoints Diverse view points taken Extremes views are masked when averaged
  • 22. 2222 Quantitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQuantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Trend analysis & projectio n Based on past relationship between a business factor related to employment & employment level itself Simple long-run trend analysis Extrapolates past relationship between volume of business activity & employment levels into the future Recognizes linkage between employment & business activity Assumes that volume of business activity of firm for forecast period will continue at same rate as previous yrs Ignores multiplicity of factors influencing employment levelsRegressi on analysis Regresses employment needs onto key variables Data driven Uses multiple business factors Difficult to use & apply
  • 23. 2323 Quantitative Methods of Demand ForecastingQuantitative Methods of Demand Forecasting Method Advantages Disadvantages Simulati on models Uses probabilities of future events to estimate future employment levels Makes several assumptions about the future regarding external & internal environment Simultaneously examines several factors Costly & complicated Workloa d analysis Based on actual content of work HR requirements based on expected output of the firm Productivity changes taken into account Job analysis may not be accurate Difficult to apply Markov analysis Probabilistic Based on past relationship between business factor related to employment & employment level itself Data driven Assumes that nature of jobs has not changed over time Applicable to stable environment
  • 24. 2424 Causes of DemandCauses of Demand EXTERNAL CHALLENGES: – Economic developments – noticeable effect but are difficult to estimate (Inflation, unemployment, & changing workforce patterns) – Social, political & legal challenges – easier to predict, but their implications are not very clear (Implication of abolishing mandatory retirement age in US may not be known until a generation has lived without “65 & out” tradition) – Technology changes – difficult to predict & assess but may radically alter strategic & HR plans (PC would cause mass unemployment vis-à-vis IT field as a large one employing millions of people directly / indirectly – complicates HR, because it tends to reduce employment in one dept. while increasing it in another)
  • 25. 2525 Causes of DemandCauses of Demand ORGANIZATIONAL DECISIONS: – As orgs. respond to changes in their environment, decisions are made to modify the strategic plan, which commits firm to long- range objectives – growth rates & new products, markets / services & these objectives dictate number & types of employees needed in future – To achieve long-term objectives, HR specialists must develop long-range HR plans that accommodate strategic plan – In short run, planners find strategic plans become operational in form of budgets – Sales & production forecasts are less exact than budgets but may provide even quicker notice of short-run changes in demand for HR – New ventures means changing HR demands – when a new venture is begun internally from scratch, lead time may allow planners to develop short-run & long-run employment plans – merging HR group with Corporate Planning staff
  • 26. 2626 Causes of DemandCauses of Demand WORKFORCE FACTORS (ATTRITION): – Demand is modified by employee actions such as  retirements,  resignations,  terminations,  death, &  leaves of absence – Analysis Technique – Markov Analysis of Attrition Rates
  • 27. 2727 Forecasting TechniquesForecasting Techniques Trend Projection Forecasts:Trend Projection Forecasts: – Quickest forecasting techniquesQuickest forecasting techniques – Two simplest methods –Two simplest methods – 1.1. ExtrapolationExtrapolation: involves extending past rates of change into future: involves extending past rates of change into future (if an avg of 20 production workers was hired each month for(if an avg of 20 production workers was hired each month for past 2 yrs, extrapolating that trend into future means that 240past 2 yrs, extrapolating that trend into future means that 240 production workers will be added during upcoming yr.)production workers will be added during upcoming yr.) 2.2. IndexationIndexation: a method of estimating future employment needs by: a method of estimating future employment needs by matching employment growth with an index, such as ratio ofmatching employment growth with an index, such as ratio of production employees to sales (eg., for each million $ increase inproduction employees to sales (eg., for each million $ increase in sales, production deptt. requires 10 new assemblers)sales, production deptt. requires 10 new assemblers) – Both are crude approximations in short run because theyBoth are crude approximations in short run because they assume that causes of demand remain constant which isassume that causes of demand remain constant which is seldom the case – making it very inaccurate for long-seldom the case – making it very inaccurate for long- range HR projectionsrange HR projections
  • 28. 2828 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation TREND ANALYSIS & PROJECTIONTREND ANALYSIS & PROJECTION • Study of firm’s past employment needs over a period of yrs. to predictStudy of firm’s past employment needs over a period of yrs. to predict future needsfuture needs • Appropriate business factor that relates significantly to employment levelsAppropriate business factor that relates significantly to employment levels differs across industries (University – student enrollment, Sales firm –differs across industries (University – student enrollment, Sales firm – sales volume, Manufacturing firm – total units produced)sales volume, Manufacturing firm – total units produced) • Steps:Steps: 1.1. Determine &Determine & identify a business factoridentify a business factor that relates to the number & type ofthat relates to the number & type of people employedpeople employed 2.2. Identify historical trendIdentify historical trend of the relationship between this business factor & theof the relationship between this business factor & the number of people employednumber of people employed 3.3. Determine the ratioDetermine the ratio of employees to the business factor, that is, the averageof employees to the business factor, that is, the average output per individual employee per year – labour productivityoutput per individual employee per year – labour productivity 4.4. Determine the labour productivity ratioDetermine the labour productivity ratio for the past 5 yrs at least & calculate thefor the past 5 yrs at least & calculate the average annual rate of change in productivityaverage annual rate of change in productivity 5.5. Calculate the human resource demandCalculate the human resource demand by dividing the business factor by theby dividing the business factor by the productivity ratioproductivity ratio 6.6. ProjectProject human resource demand for the target year.human resource demand for the target year.
  • 29. 2929 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation SIMPLE LONG-RANGE TREND ANALYSISSIMPLE LONG-RANGE TREND ANALYSIS • ExtrapolatesExtrapolates the volume of currentthe volume of current business activity for the years for whichbusiness activity for the years for which the forecast is being madethe forecast is being made • Since there is a correlation betweenSince there is a correlation between volume of business activity &volume of business activity & employment level,employment level, linear extrapolationlinear extrapolation would also indicate HR demand by job &would also indicate HR demand by job & skill categoryskill category
  • 30. 3030 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation RATIO ANALYSISRATIO ANALYSIS • RATIO between output & manpower deployedRATIO between output & manpower deployed to achieve that output is established at a givento achieve that output is established at a given point of timepoint of time • Eg., revenue per employee, sales vol. perEg., revenue per employee, sales vol. per salesperson, service contract per engineer, unitssalesperson, service contract per engineer, units produced per employee, etc.,produced per employee, etc., • Historical ratio between:Historical ratio between: • Some causal factor (sales volume)Some causal factor (sales volume) • No. of employees required (number of salesperson)No. of employees required (number of salesperson)
  • 31. 3131 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation REGRESSION ANALYSISREGRESSION ANALYSIS • Drawing a statistical comparison of pastDrawing a statistical comparison of past relationship among variablesrelationship among variables • Statistical relationship between no. ofStatistical relationship between no. of patients (business factor) & employmentpatients (business factor) & employment level of nurses in a nursing home may belevel of nurses in a nursing home may be useful in forecasting the no. of employeesuseful in forecasting the no. of employees that will be needed if the no. of patientsthat will be needed if the no. of patients increases by say 20%increases by say 20%
  • 32. 3232 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation LINEAR REGRESSIONLINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSISANALYSIS • Relationship between twoRelationship between two variables which is directlyvariables which is directly & precisely proportional& precisely proportional • Production output &Production output & manpower are the twomanpower are the two variables & thevariables & the relationship between theserelationship between these two is plotted on a graphtwo is plotted on a graph by drawing a “line of bestby drawing a “line of best fit”fit” • Analysis aims at providingAnalysis aims at providing a measure of the extent toa measure of the extent to which changes in thewhich changes in the values of two variables arevalues of two variables are correlated with one anothercorrelated with one another X a b Y Manpower Production level x x x x x x x
  • 33. 3333 Methods of Demand EstimationMethods of Demand Estimation MARKOV ANALYSISMARKOV ANALYSIS • Shows the percentage (& actual no.) of employee who remain inShows the percentage (& actual no.) of employee who remain in each job from one yr. to the next, as also the proportion of thoseeach job from one yr. to the next, as also the proportion of those who are promoted or transferred or who exit the organizationwho are promoted or transferred or who exit the organization • Internal mobility among different job classifications can be forecastInternal mobility among different job classifications can be forecast based upon past movement patterns – past patterns of employeebased upon past movement patterns – past patterns of employee movements (transitions) used to project future patternsmovements (transitions) used to project future patterns • Pattern is used to establish transitional probabilities & to develop aPattern is used to establish transitional probabilities & to develop a transition matrixtransition matrix • Transitional probabilities:Transitional probabilities: • Indicate what will happen to the initial staffing levels in each jobIndicate what will happen to the initial staffing levels in each job category / probability that employee from one job category will movecategory / probability that employee from one job category will move into another job categoryinto another job category • Determine the forecasted employee levels at the end of the yrDetermine the forecasted employee levels at the end of the yr
  • 34. 3434 Forecasting & Analyzing HRForecasting & Analyzing HR SupplySupply – Internal supply forecasts relate toInternal supply forecasts relate to conditions inside the org. such as ageconditions inside the org. such as age distribution of workforce, terminations,distribution of workforce, terminations, retirements, etc.retirements, etc. – External supply forecasts relate toExternal supply forecasts relate to external labour market conditions &external labour market conditions & estimates of supply of labour to beestimates of supply of labour to be available to the firm in the future inavailable to the firm in the future in different categoriesdifferent categories
  • 35. 3535 Methods of Forecasting External HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting External HR Supply INTERRELATED FACTORS THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED IN PROJECTINGINTERRELATED FACTORS THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED IN PROJECTING EXTERNAL HR SUPPLYEXTERNAL HR SUPPLY • Government estimates of population available for workGovernment estimates of population available for work • Net migration into and out of the areaNet migration into and out of the area • Numbers entering the workplaceNumbers entering the workplace • Numbers leaving the workplaceNumbers leaving the workplace • Numbers graduating from schools / collegesNumbers graduating from schools / colleges • Changing workforce compositionChanging workforce composition • Technological shiftsTechnological shifts • Industrial shiftsIndustrial shifts • Trends in the industry (actions of competing employers)Trends in the industry (actions of competing employers) • Economic forecastsEconomic forecasts • Government regulations & pressures such as job reservations for certainGovernment regulations & pressures such as job reservations for certain groupsgroups
  • 36. 3636 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY • Obtains & stores information about each employee of the org. in a mannerObtains & stores information about each employee of the org. in a manner that is easily accessible because it is necessary for HRPthat is easily accessible because it is necessary for HRP • Employee information stored in the inventory relates to KSA, experience,Employee information stored in the inventory relates to KSA, experience, & career aspirations of the present workforce of the firm& career aspirations of the present workforce of the firm • Contents of HR InventoryContents of HR Inventory • Personal identification informationPersonal identification information • Biographical informationBiographical information • Educational achievementsEducational achievements • Employment historyEmployment history • Information about present jobInformation about present job • Present skills, abilities, & competenciesPresent skills, abilities, & competencies • Future focused dataFuture focused data • Specific actions (like training needed for achieving career goals)Specific actions (like training needed for achieving career goals)
  • 37. 3737 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY • 2 types –2 types – • Skills inventory: describes the skills &Skills inventory: describes the skills & knowledge of non-managerial employees &knowledge of non-managerial employees & is used primarily for making placement &is used primarily for making placement & promotion decisionspromotion decisions • Management inventory: contains the sameManagement inventory: contains the same information as in skills inventory, but only forinformation as in skills inventory, but only for managerial employees which describes themanagerial employees which describes the work history, strengths, weaknesses,work history, strengths, weaknesses, promotion potential, career goalspromotion potential, career goals
  • 38. 3838 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply HR INVENTORYHR INVENTORY • Can be used to develop employee replacementCan be used to develop employee replacement chartscharts • Replacement charts – lists current jobholders &Replacement charts – lists current jobholders & identifies possible replacements should there be aidentifies possible replacements should there be a vacancy for reasons such as resignations, transfers,vacancy for reasons such as resignations, transfers, promotions, etc.promotions, etc. • Replacement charts include the following informationReplacement charts include the following information on possible replacements like current jobon possible replacements like current job performance, potential for promotion, trainingperformance, potential for promotion, training experience required by replacement to be ready forexperience required by replacement to be ready for the key positionthe key position • Chart also details ‘when’ a replacement is neededChart also details ‘when’ a replacement is needed for a ‘job’ – short term forecasts in naturefor a ‘job’ – short term forecasts in nature
  • 39. 3939 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply SUCCESSION ANALYSIS & PLANNINGSUCCESSION ANALYSIS & PLANNING • A systematic & deliberate process of identifying,A systematic & deliberate process of identifying, developing & tracking key individuals within the firm todeveloping & tracking key individuals within the firm to prepare them for assuming senior & top-level positionsprepare them for assuming senior & top-level positions in future.in future. • Eg., SAIL poaching from global players & preparing aEg., SAIL poaching from global players & preparing a ‘defence system’ wherein 2‘defence system’ wherein 2ndnd & 3& 3rdrd line of command isline of command is being prepared; IBM, ExxonMobil, GE, etc., havebeing prepared; IBM, ExxonMobil, GE, etc., have already hired its CEO for 2010already hired its CEO for 2010 • Eg., Godrej, Marico (fly. owned business) in India haveEg., Godrej, Marico (fly. owned business) in India have ‘drop dead’ succession plan which keeps the wheel‘drop dead’ succession plan which keeps the wheel moving where a promoter of the fly-owned firm maymoving where a promoter of the fly-owned firm may always be around to guide the companyalways be around to guide the company
  • 40. 4040 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply LABOUR WASTAGE ANALYSISLABOUR WASTAGE ANALYSIS • Traditionally LW is measured by the employeeTraditionally LW is measured by the employee turnover index (% wastage index)turnover index (% wastage index) • (No. of empls leave in mth / avg. empls) x 100(No. of empls leave in mth / avg. empls) x 100 • Turnover classified into:Turnover classified into: • Avoidable separations (resignations & dismissal)Avoidable separations (resignations & dismissal) • Unavoidable separations (retirement, death, &Unavoidable separations (retirement, death, & marriage)marriage) • Turnover rate = [(S-US) / M] x 100Turnover rate = [(S-US) / M] x 100
  • 41. 4141 Methods of Forecasting Internal HR SupplyMethods of Forecasting Internal HR Supply ABSENTEEISM RATEABSENTEEISM RATE No. of man-days lost due to absenceNo. of man-days lost due to absence from work during the periodfrom work during the period ARAR = --------------------------------------- x 100= --------------------------------------- x 100 Avg. number of Total numberAvg. number of Total number empls. during this pd. of daysempls. during this pd. of days