IEEE: GlobalInnovationOutlook ServiceScience 8nov07
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IEEE: GlobalInnovationOutlook ServiceScience 8nov07
- 1. A Small Step for Mankind? Flat World, Open Innovation, and Wiki-nomics IEEE, EMC Society – November 8th , 2007 Stan Curtis, IBM PLM, Open Innovation Council
- 2. “What does this mean for engineering?” • Goal: Provide a framework to improve work/life (career options) • Approach: Explain IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook (open innovation) • Outcomes: Get started step-by-step (3 papers, 3 partners, 3 pilots) Abstract With Moore’s Law driving technology and embedding change in our business practices globally, what does this mean for engineeringwhat does this mean for engineering as a career and education as an enabler? Mr. Curtis will share his insights from recent projects in China, India, with Intel, Tata, and IBM’s Innovation Centre in Dublin. • Berkeley, MIT • P&G, Raytheon • Accenture, IBM Background (bias):A small step for Mankind? “Flat World”, “Open Innovation”, and “Wiki-nomics” IEEE, EMC Society – November 8th, 2007 Stan Curtis, IBM PLM, Open Innovation Council
- 3. “Flat World” - a test plan for your region? • “Heard the One about 600,000 Chinese Engineers?” Washington Post 21may06 • “Planning for ‘Megaregions’ in the United States.” Dewar, Epstein; Journal of Planning nov07 • Nobel-prize! - “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore; Nobel Prize 12oct07 Plan for “Megaregions”
- 4. Global (regional) planning – What is IBM’s approach? •248 thought leaders •178 organizations •33 countries • IBM works with global experts on regional Economic Development plans. • “Triple-Bottomline?” Innovation is key!
- 5. Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965 Global Innovation Outlook – What are IBM’s findings? • Technology innovation is still accelerating. • But market uptake is potential limit - “the next 1B?” • Sustainable Development is a global challenge! (Millenium Development Goal, MDG) Kurzweil – Law of Accelerating Returns IBM GIO 2004 Q: “the next 1B?”
- 6. Global Innovation Outlook – What are IBM’s findings? • Productivity drives Economic Development. (jobs!) • Business innovations (and jobs) are moving to Services. (Google?) • Policy innovation enables key plays. (iPod?) 0 100 50 Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature 20501850 1900 1950 20001800 %ofTotalRevenue Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others Goods: Value from making products 0 100 50 Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature 20501850 1900 1950 20001800 %ofTotalRevenue Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others Goods: Value from making products 0 100 50 Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature 20501850 1900 1950 20001800 %ofTotalRevenue Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others Goods: Value from making products 0 100 50 Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature 20501850 1900 1950 20001800 %ofTotalRevenue Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others Goods: Value from making products Q: “what about my JOB?”
- 7. • From Computer Science to Service Science • Big Green! A: “a new Service Science!” What does this mean for engineering?
- 8. What does this mean for engineering? • Engineers are leading candidates for Top Jobs • Technology innovations will improve work/life options (including location)! • Over 50% of private sector jobs are in small companies. #1 Computer Programmer #5 Environmental Engineer #7 Management Consultant #8 Networking Specialist A: “Top Jobs and Career Trends”
- 9. What does this mean for engineering? • “Green” equity-plays. Venture Capital up! • 2-in-3 new jobs are created by small companies. • IBM invests $2B/yr in startups… Gets WSJ clips (3) Venture-capital investment in the U.S. climbed 8% in the quarter to $8.07 billion… The rise in the value of investments was the ninth consecutive quarterly increase. The latest investment total was the highest quarterly figure since the first quarter of 2001, the report said. The technology boom of the 1990s ended in spring 2000. The report spotlighted two segments that include a majority of clean-tech companies. Energy investments jumped 28% to $590 million
- 10. What does this mean for you? • MIT engineering: “Open CourseWare” • IBM eco-system: “Patent Commons” • IBM #1 in patents per year, but • Open Innovation changed our business: – Linux - for mainframes – Open Source - new eco-system, onramp for IBM.SWG – OpenDoc – new policy, for government records • Patent Commons! Open Innovation changed our business! • IBM #1 in patents per year, but • Open Innovation changed our business: – Linux - for mainframes – Open Source - new eco-system, onramp for IBM.SWG – OpenDoc – new policy, for government records • Patent Commons! Open Innovation changed our business! Community development opportunities!
- 11. What does this mean for you? • Wiki-pedia • Wiki-nomics?
- 12. What does this mean “in-my-backyard”? • “design town” • Porteon/Zipcar
- 13. What does this mean “in-my-backyard”? • Liberty Cove • “282”
- 14. Summary? • Flat World • Open Innovation • Wiki-nomics • Regional Innovation Initiatives (RII) • Digital Community collaboration • Sustainable development • Eco-village Development • Green-grid utilities • NEV-carsharing Global challenges: Regional solutions: Personal choice: Ex: “Small Steps…” • Open Innovation (IBM wiki) • City Vitals (CEOSforCities) • Cascadia (Seltzer.06) • Intel World Ahead • Dublin Innovation Centre • Endurance.net • Wireless Portland • Tillamook “911” • ColumbiaCrossing 3 Papers: 3 Partners: 3 Pilots: A: “Think global, Act local” • If youIf you’re not part of the solution… ?’re not part of the solution… ? • Keep it simple!Keep it simple! (Be cheerful)(Be cheerful)
- 15. Got innovation? • Flat World • Open Innovation • Wiki-nomics Its 90% persperation …Cheers! Its 90% persperation …Cheers! • Global Innovation Outlook • Dublin Innovation Centre • MIT Open CourseWare • HBS, Porter • MIT, Kurzweil • NPR, Coletta References:
- 16. http://www.gartner.com/research/fellows/asset_185385_1176.jsp • How do you think curriculum must change? Donofrio: Here in the United States, we need to change the curriculum. We want to help people become – you'll easily get this in imagery – T-shaped, not just I-shaped. And that's very important. T has a very long stem to it, and it says you're capable of seeing what's going on all around you and can actually change your base. If you saw enough change, you would adapt to a new base and become deep in a different way. [Note: Gartner has adopted a similar concept in its concept of the versatilist.] Even today, in the role that I play, I have to constantly acquire new knowledge. I have to constantly change what's important to me – understand services, understand where markets are going, understand why they're going there. I have to understand those things because I'm expected to help make decisions about what we shouldn't be doing, as well as what we should be doing. We have to be constantly mindful that we don't control value, the market controls value. So I need electrical engineers, semiconductor people and software people to generate value in new ways. The T-shaped people, this emerging curriculum about SSME [service science, management and engineering] that we're trying to build – they're all part of the answer to the question of what's next? Where do I go? Some of the curriculum is business training, some is business knowledge, some is just a better understanding and appreciation for this whole issue. It's marketing, it's value, it's the migration of value, it's the ability to integrate and put together a solution.
- 17. Engineers by Size of Firm and Experience http://www.careerjournal.com/salaryhiring/industries/engineers/
- 18. Professional Engineers by Job Function http://www.careerjournal.com/salaryhiring/industries/engineers/20061115-eng-job-tab.html
- 19. Professional Engineers by Industry/Field http://www.careerjournal.com/salaryhiring/industries/engineers/20061031-eng-ind-tab.html
- 20. SSME – Service Science Management Engineering
Notas del editor
- 60 years ago Sputnik kickstarted my engineering career with advanced math classes in grade school (talented-and-gifted, TAG) and advanced research PhD programs (DARPA supercomputing) my uncle was a “rocket scientist” … visits featured Disneyland!
- now our son 4 th gen Engineer.. “Out of Africa” peace corps generations evolved from AgE to MechE to ElecE, …& ServicesE? Xmas gamebox drives industry iPhone is a milestone in user-centric design! Maybe this talk, with examples from IBM Global Innovation Outlook, will help with your local economy and career planning for you & your extended family.
- http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/19/AR2006051901760.html 600,000 Chinese Engineers: These numbers attained seemingly impeccable credibility when they were featured in a press release last October about a new report from the Committee on Science, Engineering and Public Policy, a joint group from the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine (which, with the National Research Council, are collectively known as the National Academies). "Last year more than 600,000 engineers graduated from institutions of higher education in China," the report stated. "In India the figure was 350,000. In America, it was about 70,000." To dramatize the seriousness of the issue, the academies titled the 543-page report "Rising Above the Gathering Storm," an allusion to Winston Churchill's book "The Gathering Storm," about events leading up to World War II. Thomas L. Friedman did not use these specific numbers in his 2005 bestseller, "The World Is Flat," he did write that Asian universities currently produce eight times as many bachelor's degrees in engineering as U.S. universities do
- “ Post-bubble” (2004) IBM dramatically changed our “world view” From Technology patend-driven… To Market-growth and Economic Development (limit-to-growth?) HighTech is a “consumer” brand, are enabled by “Triple-bottom-line”. We have to be Socially responsilbe & certifiable! - The key: Sustainable Development …profiting via INNOVATION! GLOBAL innovation happens locally… city-by-city.
- http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 Law of Accelerating Returns, Kurzweil 7mar2001 Moore ’s Law (1965) continues IBM Global Technology Outlook reference Kurzweil ’s regression….as Knowledge doubling IBM Global Innovation Outlook notes market uptake as “limit-to-growth”? The IT economy is limited by Global economy… what ’s sustainable? Where is the next 1B (users, killer-app)? Milestones: …1B cars, …1B PCs, …2B cellphones!
- My original source: SciAm article
- An Inconveniant Truth … is driving the next “rocket-thrust” of engineering. Green, socially responsible practices … delivered as-needed With pay-per-use market-driven business models (SW-as-service) We are now envisioning the “next step” Electrical & Electronic Engineering (IEEE) Computer Science Service Science! Systems engineering and requirements-driven design. Big Green!
- http://www.inc.com/news/briefs/200710/1025jobs.html Small businesses have employed more than half of the nation's non-farm private-sector workforce in recent years, according to updated data from the Small Business Administration's Office of Advocacy. In 2004, the latest year studied, small employers added nearly two million net new jobs to the U.S. economy, the data shows. "Small businesses are America's job-creating dynamo," Chad Moutray, the agency's chef economist, said in a statement. "Clearly, policymakers need to consider their impact on small business when they are making policy decisions." The updated data also shows the nation's had an estimated 26.8 million small businesses last year, including 1.2 million African-American owned firms, 1.6 million Hispanic-owned firms, and 1.1 million Asian-owned firms. Across the board, there were 6.5 million small businesses owned by women. http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2007/jun/wk4/art02.htm Small firms, those with 1 to 499 employees, create about 64 percent of new jobs.
- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119421796826981829.html http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119154695723849756.html Today, the venture arm of private-equity firm Carlyle Group is expected to announce a $605 million U.S. venture and "growth capital" fund that will focus mainly on later-stage deals and buyouts, including deals involving debt. The fund's later-stage deals likely will involve $20 million to $30 million investments in mature companies that are producing revenues already compared with a typical initial investment of around $5 million in a start-up with little revenue that is just getting off the ground. Carlyle also expects to contribute around $20 million to $60 million to buyouts as large as $200 million, leveraging some of them at a ratio of two to three times debt to cash flow compared with a ratio of six to seven times for huge buyout deals.
- A partner driven approach … join and grow a competitive eco-system! MIT – a good benchmark & open reference! IBM – we ’re trying… Patent Commons (got John Kelly promoted!) Open Innovation … the VC-model, with digital communities.
- It can happen HERE! In small groups, with OED-style & Encarta-like impact! Don ’t think in the old-models… think “different”!
- Here are some examples… from “Design Town”! And a recent global conference on Innovation, Collaboration & Sustainability (Smart Cities: Clusters, Talent & Place)
- Innovation happens locally… Its even happening “in my backyard”! Thanks to visionary elders… And DCX spinoffs (Porteon & Liberty Cove partners) Collaboration business/academic courseware PSU-Architecture 282
- A summary? … left-side A step-by-step? … 1whiskey, 1scotch & 1beer (NO!) -3 papers 3 partners 3 pilots ( in your backyard?) CHEERS