Hsse 20160729 v1
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Human-Side of Service Systems Engineering, cognitive assistants
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Hsse 20160729 v1
- 1. Jim Spohrer (IBM) San Jose, CA Firday July 29, 2016 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/hsse-20160729-v2 7/29/2016 1 Smart, People-Centered Service Systems and Cognitive Assistant for All Occupation
- 2. AHFE HSSE 2016 Disney EPCOT: Dolphin/Australia 2 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 2
- 3. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 3
- 4. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 4
- 5. 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 5
- 6. What is Industry 4.0? 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 6
- 7. Computing: Then, Now, Projected 7/29/2016 7 2035 2055
- 8. How fast is Reality 2.0 approaching? 7/29/2016 8 What might it look like?
- 9. Managers: Courage Required…. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 9
- 10. $5M Prize 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 10
- 11. 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 11 I have… Have you noticed how the building blocks just keep getting better?
- 12. Learning to program: My first program 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 12 Early Computer Science Class: Watson Center at Columbia 1945 Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972
- 13. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 13 Fast Forward 2016: Consider this…
- 14. Microsoft CaptionBot June 19, 2016 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 14
- 15. Microsoft CaptionBot June 20, 2016 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 15
- 16. IBM Image Tagging 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 16
- 17. Courses 2015 – “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.” – 9 months to 40% question answering accuracy – 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, which questions to reject 2025 – “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.” – Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week 2035 – “How to use your cognitive mediator to build a startup.” – Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day – Cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves 2055 – “How to manage your workforce of digital workers.” – Most people have 100 digital workers. 7/29/2016 17
- 18. 7/29/2016 18 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055 Can better service help us be wiser? Cognitive Mediator (2035): Tool, Assistant, Collaborator, Coach
- 19. What exists in 2016? 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 19 360,000 100,000 120,000 60,000 150,000
- 20. Reality 2.0 Service Platform: polite cognitive mediators (CM1,CM2) do not interrupt people (P1,P2) 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 20 Service Platform CM2 P2 CM1 P1 100x 100x 100x
- 21. By 2035, T-Shaped Makers with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators 7/29/2016 21 Empathy & Teamwork sector region/culture discipline Depth Breadth STEM Liberal Arts
- 22. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better” Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing Energy Construction ICT Retail Finance Healthcare Education Government
- 23. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 23
- 24. 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 24 What might Reality 2.0 look like?
- 25. 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 25 Wise Service System: All entities’ in network use cognitive mediators to enhance value co-creation interactions Cognitive Mediators: Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert) as co-creators of win-win value Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions
- 26. 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 26 Cognitive Mediators for all people in all roles
- 27. Occupations = Many Tasks 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 27
- 28. Watson Discovery Advisor 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 28 Simonite, T. 2014. Software Mines Science Papers to Make New Discoveries. MIT. November 25, 2014. URL: http://m.technologyreview.com/news/520461/software-mines-science-papers-to-make-new-discoveries/
- 29. User Models 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 29
- 30. Two assertions • Machines seem to be getting smarter fast. – Agree/disagree? • People do not seem to be getting wiser fast. – Agree/disagree? 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 30 Homo Sapiens means Wise Man: True/False?
- 31. Next Generation: Future-Ready T-Shaped Adaptive Innovators Many disciplines Many sectors Many regions/cultures (understanding & communications) Deepinonesector Deepinoneregion/culture Deepinonediscipline
- 32. Future-Ready T-Shapes 7/29/2016 © IBM UPWard 2016 32
- 33. 7/29/2016 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development 33
Notas del editor
- For permission to reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2016) Startup opportunities for cognitive systems. July 8, 2016. URL http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/cognitive-startups-20160708-v6
- Obvious things to do….. With the mission of cognitive assistants for all occupations in smart service systems. http://www.cognitive-science.info https://www.linkedin.com/groups/Cognitive-Systems-Institute-6729452
- 4th is a cyber-physcial systems.
- If Moore’s Law continues, by 2035 and by 2055, we are projected to have unimaginably large amounts of cheap computing…. 2035 one human brain level, and by 2055 all human brains level(10 billion people). Based on Kurweil’s graph of how much compute power $1000 will buy, it seems that by 2030, for $1000 you should be able to buy the compute power of one person’s brain, and that by 2060 for $1000 you should be able to buy the computer power of 10***10, or 10B people, the compute power of the world’s population for $1000. Source: http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html Was Moore’s Law inevitable? http://kk.org/thetechnium/was-moores-law/
- Source URL: Mother Jones - http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
- We are talking about the Frontiers of Service here – and Roland has long predicted information and service converge in some hard to imagine way…
- Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
- In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
- Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era: (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy; - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope") - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY - more about the ambitions at http://cognitive-science.info (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000 - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power) (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc. (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them" - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook.... http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness - and note especially the wellness suit at the end: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
- The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
- Many intelligent assistants or cognitive assistants are beginning to appear. (the numbers indicate approximate number of employees at each companuy). More and more companies are working on cognitive assistants – and each month a new company shows up working on their version of an intelligent personal assistant. Make no mistake, like “magnetism” – the company the can first provide all its employees with intelligent personal assistants/cognitvie assistants will have done something quite historic! Prediction 1 – more than half of the Forbes Global 2000, and equally many new startups, will have cognitive assistant projects for their customers within ten years Prediction 2 – by 2035 we will be symbiotic with our cognitive assistants Prediction 3 – by 2055 (in part due to the coaching of our cognitive coaches) an average adult will have the ability to rapidly rebuild from scratch societal infrastructure Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligent_personal_assistant
- CM1 to CM2 “Once they stop talking about the weather, do you think we should let them know together they could potentially cure cancer?”
- Source: http://tsummit.org
- By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
- Images Sources: http://www.preventionjustice.org/potent-partnerships-networks-of-people-living-with-hiv/
- O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0