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247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/
Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
22AA Ladoke Akintola Street
Ikeja GRA
Lagos State
Anambra State Airport
Final Report
December 2008
Mott MacDonald
St Anne House
20-26 Wellesley Road
Croydon
Surrey
CR9 2UL
UK
Tel : 44 (0)20 8774 2000
Fax : 44 (0)20 8681 5706
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
i247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/i of i
Anambra State Airport
Final Report
Issue and Revision Record
Rev Date Originator Checker Approver Description
1 12/11/08
CJC, EK,
PH, FK
PF, GDR AJG
Draft Report for
comments
2 23/12/08
GDR, PH,
CJC, AT
GDR, PH GDR Final
This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any
other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authority of Mott
MacDonald being obtained. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of this document
being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the
document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm his agreement to indemnify
Mott MacDonald for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for this
document to any party other than the person by whom it was commissioned.
To the extent that this report is based on information supplied by other parties, Mott MacDonald accepts no liability for any
loss or damage suffered by the client, whether contractual or tortious, stemming from any conclusions based on data
supplied by parties other than Mott MacDonald and used by Mott MacDonald in preparing this report.
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
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List of Contents Page
Chapters and Appendices
1 Introduction 1-1
2 Traffic Forecasting 2-1
2.1 Background 2-1
2.1.1 Location 2-1
2.2 Stakeholder Objectives 2-2
2.3 Anambra State 2-3
2.3.1 Population 2-3
2.3.2 Anambra Trade 2-4
2.3.3 Economy 2-4
2.3.4 Nigerian Trade 2-6
2.4 Air Traffic in Nigeria 2-8
2.4.1 Propensity to fly 2-10
2.4.2 Industry Forecasts 2-11
2.4.3 Airlines of Nigeria 2-12
2.5 Benchmarking 2-14
2.5.1 Neighbouring Airports 2-14
2.6 Air Traffic Demand Forecasts 2-16
2.6.1 Transport of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel 2-16
2.6.2 Scheduled Business and Leisure traffic demand – Mott MacDonald
assumptions 2-17
2.6.3 Transport of Government personnel 2-20
2.6.4 Air Cargo Traffic Demand 2-20
2.6.5 Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22
2.7 Peak hour movements 2-23
2.8 Conclusions 2-24
3 Master Plan 3-1
3.1 Master Plan Assumptions 3-1
3.1.1 Preliminary Airfield Design Assumptions 3-1
3.2 Airfield Design 3-2
3.2.1 Wind Analysis 3-2
3.2.2 Topography 3-3
3.2.3 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces 3-3
3.2.4 Runway Alignment 3-4
3.2.5 Navigational Aids 3-12
3.2.6 Design Aircraft 3-14
3.2.7 Runway Length 3-14
3.2.8 Runway Width and Other Parameters 3-15
3.2.9 Runway Configuration 3-15
3.2.10 Taxiways 3-17
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3.3 Code F Runway and Taxiway Widths 3-17
3.4 Apron Design 3-18
3.4.1 Passenger Apron and Terminal Configuration Options 3-24
3.4.2 Cargo Apron 3-34
3.4.3 Helicopter Apron 3-34
3.5 Ancillary Support Facilities 3-36
3.5.1 Fire Station, Air Traffic Control Tower and Operations Zone 3-36
3.5.2 Aircraft Maintenance Area 3-37
3.5.3 Airfield Boundary 3-38
3.5.4 Car Parking 3-39
3.5.5 Fuel Farm 3-40
3.6 Refuelling Stands 3-41
3.7 Flight Catering 3-41
3.8 Flight Crew Facilities 3-41
3.9 Drainage 3-42
3.10 Apron Area and Airport Facilities Overview 3-44
3.11 Phasing of the Airfield and Airport Facilities 3-45
3.11.1 Phase 1 - Minimum requirement for an operational airfield 3-45
3.11.2 Phase 2 - Minimum Requirement for a Domestic Airport , Meeting Security
and Civil Aviation Requirements 3-47
3.11.3 Phase 4 - International Airport meeting international standards 3-51
3.12 Passenger Terminal Building Design 3-53
4 Environmental Review 4-1
4.1 Introduction 4-1
4.2 General Comments 4-1
4.2.1 Chapter 1 - Introduction 4-1
4.2.2 Chapter 2 – Project Justification 4-2
4.2.3 Chapter 3 – Project Description 4-2
4.2.4 Chapter 4 – Existing Environment Description 4-3
4.2.5 Chapter 5 – Associated and Potential Impact Assessment 4-4
4.2.6 Chapter 6 – Impacts and Mitigation Measures 4-5
4.2.7 Chapter 7 – Environmental Management Plan 4-6
4.2.8 Chapter 8 – Conclusions 4-6
4.3 Summary 4-6
5 Procurement Options 5-1
5.1 Introduction 5-1
5.2 Key Project Interfaces 5-1
5.3 Project Requirements 5-3
5.4 Methods of Procurement 5-4
5.5 Recommended Methods of Procurement 5-5
5.5.1 Traditional Procurement for Enabling Works 5-6
5.5.2 Design & Build Turnkey for Main Development Works 5-6
5.6 Project Organisation 5-8
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5.7 Project Execution Process 5-10
5.8 Conclusions & Recommendations 5-1
6 Investment Appraisal 6-2
6.1 Currency Conversion 6-2
6.2 Benchmarking Analysis 6-2
6.2.1 West African Zone Countries 6-2
6.2.2 Anambra State Assumptions 6-3
6.2.3 ACI Worldwide Annual Traffic Reports 6-3
6.2.4 Benchmark Airports 6-3
6.2.5 Airport Revenues 6-3
6.2.6 Revenues per Passenger 6-4
6.3 Freetown-Lungi Airport Revenues 6-4
6.3.1 Freetown-Lungi Airport Aviation Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-4
6.3.2 Freetown-Lungi Airport Non-Aviation Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-4
6.3.3 Freetown-Lungi Airport Total Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-5
6.4 Burkina Faso Airport Revenues 6-5
6.4.1 Burkina Faso Airport Aviation Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-5
6.4.2 Burkina Faso Airport Non-Aviation Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-6
6.4.3 Burkina Faso Airport Total Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-6
6.5 Summary Revenues 6-6
6.6 Nigerian Cargo Revenues 6-7
6.7 Methodology for Calculating Revenues 6-7
6.8 Operating Expenditure (Opex) 6-7
6.8.1 Labour Opex 6-7
6.8.2 Non-Labour Opex 6-8
6.8.3 Methodology for Calculating Estimated Opex 6-8
6.9 Capex Phasing 6-8
6.10 High Level Financial Model 6-9
6.10.1 Net Present Value 6-11
Appendix A Architectural Renderings of the Terminal A-1
Appendix B 15 Km Radius Topographic Map B-1
Appendix C Capital Cost Estimates C-1
C.1 COST ESTIMATE C-1
C.2 BASIS OF ESTIMATE C-1
C.3 PRICE DATUM OF ESTIMATE C-1
C.4 ESTIMATE OF COST C-2
C.5 EXCLUSIONS FROM ESTIMATE C-2
C.6 RISK/CONTINGENCY C-3
Appendix D Capital Cost Elements D-1
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Figure 2.1: The State of Anambra in the context of Nigeria................................................................2-1
Figure 2.2: Anambra State’s proximity to major Nigerian cities .........................................................2-2
Figure 2.3: Districts of Anambra State.................................................................................................2-3
Figure 2.4: Nigeria GDP annual growth rates 1990-2006....................................................................2-6
Figure 2.5: Nigerian GDP by industry sector, 2007.............................................................................2-7
Figure 2.6: Nigerian Exports by commodity, 1st
Qtr 2008...................................................................2-7
Figure 2.7: Nigerian Imports by commodity, 1st
Qtr 2008...................................................................2-8
Figure 2.8: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports ..............................................................2-9
Figure 2.9: GDP per capita vs Propensity to fly.................................................................................2-11
Figure 3.10: Wind direction and wind speed diagrams........................................................................3-2
Figure 3.11: Frequency of wind speed in proposed location................................................................3-3
Figure 3.12: Land Potentially Available Outside Current OPR Land Ownership Boundary...............3-8
Figure 3.13: Overview of Runway Alignment Options .......................................................................3-9
Figure 3.14: Preferred Alignment Option 7 .......................................................................................3-10
Figure 3.15: Option 7 in Relation to the Wind Rose..........................................................................3-11
Figure 3.16: PAPI System Next to a Runway....................................................................................3-12
Figure 3.17: ILS Localiser Antenna...................................................................................................3-12
Figure 3.18: ILS Glide Path Antenna.................................................................................................3-13
Figure 3.19: Single Runway with Reserve Runway..........................................................................3-16
Figure 3.20: Airfield Layout...............................................................................................................3-19
Figure 3.21: New Airfield Lay-Out Option........................................................................................3-23
Figure 3.22: Examples of a Temporary Terminal Building ...............................................................3-24
Figure 3.23: E MARS Stand Diagram................................................................................................3-26
Figure 3.24: Cargo Apron ..................................................................................................................3-34
Figure 3.25: Helicopter Apron ...........................................................................................................3-35
Figure 3.26: Example of a Helicopter Parking Space ........................................................................3-35
Figure 3.27: Fire Station and Air Traffic Control Tower Area ..........................................................3-37
Figure 3.28: Integrated Fire Station and Air Traffic Control Tower at Southampton Airport, UK ...3-37
Figure 3.29: Maintenance Area..........................................................................................................3-38
Figure 3.30: Examples of Security Fences.........................................................................................3-39
Figure 3.31: Car Parking Area ...........................................................................................................3-39
Figure 3.32: Fuel Farm.......................................................................................................................3-40
Figure 3.33: Example of Fuel Farm Structure....................................................................................3-40
Figure 3.34: Balancing Ponds ............................................................................................................3-43
Figure 3.35: Balancing Pond at Auckland Airport, NZ......................................................................3-43
Figure 3.36: Anambra Airport Apron Area........................................................................................3-44
Figure 3.37: Phase 1 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-46
Figure 3.38: Phase 2 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-48
Figure 3.39: Phase 3 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-50
Figure 3.40: Phase 4 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-52
Figure 3.41: Ground Floor Indicative Plan.........................................................................................3-55
Figure 3.42: Upper Floor Indicative Plan...........................................................................................3-56
Figure 3.43: APV (Bus) Gates ...........................................................................................................3-58
Figure 3.44: Double Spans over Baggage Sort Hall Roads................................................................3-60
Figure 3.45: Fixed Link......................................................................................................................3-61
Figure 3.46: Upper Floor Departure Lounges....................................................................................3-62
Figure 3.47: Check-In and Baggage Sort Hall ...................................................................................3-64
Figure 3.48: Security..........................................................................................................................3-65
Figure 3.49: International Arrivals Immigration and Customs ..........................................................3-67
Figure 3.50: CIP/VIP Check-In..........................................................................................................3-68
Figure 5.1: Project Organisation...........................................................................................................5-9
Figure 5.1: Project Execution Process................................................................................................5-11
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Table 2.1: Population of Anambra State by District 2-4
Table 2.2: Nigerian GDP by State 2-5
Table 2.3: Derived GDP per capita figures 2-5
Table 2.4: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports 2-9
Table 2.5: Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports, 2007 2-10
Table 2.6: Airbus Forecast of Africa Sub-Sahara Market Growth Rates 2-12
Table 2.7: Airlines of Nigeria – fleet summary 2-13
Table 2.8: Neighbouring airport traffic figures, 2007 2-14
Table 2.9: Port Harcourt scheduled route network 2-15
Table 2.10: Oil and Gas Facilities personnel demand forecast 2-16
Table 2.11: Scheduled Traffic Demand Forecast 2-18
Table 2.12: Orient – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast 2-21
Table 2.13: Mott MacDonald – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22
Table 2.14: Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22
Table 3.15: DME/DVOR Array 3-13
Table 3.16: Assumptions made for terminal facilities requirements 3-53
Table 3.17: Facilities requirements for terminal building 3-54
Table 3.18: Space requirements derived from IATA’s space standards for individuals 3-54
Table 5.1: Comparison of Main Procurement Options 5-5
Table 5.1: Key Features of Design & Build Turnkey Procurement 5-6
Table 5.2: Advantages and Disadvantages of Design & Build Turnkey 5-8
Table C.1: Phased Capital Costs C-2
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1 Introduction
Mott MacDonald (MM), in collaboration with Aircraft Support International (Nigeria) (ASI), was
commissioned to carry out a study by Orient Petroleum Resources Plc (OPR) into the development of
a new airport in Anambra State, Nigeria. Throughout the study ASI supported MM in providing
advice on aviation practices and procedures within Nigeria, whilst MM provided the technical advice.
The report is divided into sections to reflect the main areas from the scope of works and the additional
information requested as the project progressed. Chapter 2 discusses the findings from the traffic
forecasting team and chapter 3 details the Master Plan. This section also includes a 3-D drawing of the
front of the terminal building.
A review of the Environmental Impact Assessment for the site is given in chapter 4 and an analysis on
procurement options is given in Chapter 5. Finally Chapter 6 gives a conclusion to the study as a
whole. A cost plan and an analysis of the investment appraisal will be detailed in a separate report to
be submitted after this.
This report is based on data and information given to us by ASI and OPR, as well as the assumptions
and methodology detailed in the Scoping Report, submitted to ASI on the 25th
September 2008. This
report encompasses the comments made by both parties on the Scoping Report.
It also has been subject to an internal peer review at Mott MacDonald prior to issue and several points
have arisen which have resulted in some changes to the proposed airfield layout and that of the
passenger terminal. We have incorporated many of these prior to issue, but have not been able to
incorporate them all. As the timing of this issue has been determined in order to be available for a pre-
arranged meeting with the client, we have not delayed this issue. Consequently a further revision and
issue will be made.
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2 Traffic Forecasting
2.1 Background
This section is intended to outline the future demand for air transport movements, passenger and cargo
traffic throughput at the proposed new airport in Anambra State, southeast Nigeria.
Currently, no airfield serves Anambra State. Orient Petroleum Services plc wants to construct an
airfield in parallel with a new Oil Refinery to serve its needs, primarily, but also for it to stimulate
trade, business, inward investment and to promote tourism in Anambra.
This section initially provides a background on the socio-economic environment in Nigeria and
Anambra State, looking at the structure of the economy, demographics, trade and the current
propensity to fly for the Nigerian population.
An air traffic forecast for passengers, ATMs and cargo has been produced and the assumptions
detailed in this section. A Base Case has been prepared which will constitute a ‘normal growth’
scenario, as well as a Low and High Case forecast based on lower and higher growth scenarios,
respectively.
2.1.1 Location
Figure 2.1: The State of Anambra in the context of Nigeria
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Located in South-East Nigeria, Anambra State is bounded by Delta State to the west, Imo State to the
south, Enugu State to the east and Kogi State to the north.
Figure 2.2: Anambra State’s proximity to major Nigerian cities
The proposed new airport is nearly 400km from the Nigerian commercial centre, Lagos. Existing
surface transport links are under-developed and considered unsafe to travel.
2.2 Stakeholder Objectives
The key stakeholders of the airport will be Orient Petroleum Services plc and the State Government of
Anambra.
Orient Petroleum needs the airport to;
• Support the construction of the Refinery by using the airport to import major facility
components
• Support the Oil and gas operations of the company
• Effect timely delivery of emergency parts for the Refinery operations
• Transport Jet A1 fuel from the Refinery to customers
• Safely transport Refinery personnel
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The Government’s objectives for the airport are as follows;
• To assist the safe movement of government officials and visitors
• To attract inward investment and business opportunities to the State
• To facilitate the transportation of the Anambra population
There are also associated commercial interests. The airport can be used to;
• Serve as a cargo hub to facilitate movement of goods and services
• Support the potential industrial growth around the Refinery
• Act as a domestic passenger airport for the Anambra population
2.3 Anambra State
2.3.1 Population
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria), Anambra State’s population stood at some
4.2 million in 2005, constituting 3.1% of Nigeria’s total population of over 133 million. Anambra
State has one of the highest population densities in Nigeria, estimated at around 1,500 - 2,000 people
per square kilometre.
Figure 2.3: Districts of Anambra State
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Table 2.1: Population of Anambra State by District
District Population % of total
Idemili North 430,783 10.3%
Aguata 370,172 8.9%
Ihiala 302,158 7.2%
Anaocha 285,002 6.8%
Nnewi South 233,658 5.6%
Ogbaru 221,879 5.3%
Idemili South 207,683 5.0%
Awka South 189,049 4.5%
Orumbra South 187,198 4.5%
Orumba North 172,405 4.1%
Oyi 168,029 4.0%
Anambra West 167,416 4.0%
Ayamelum 158,410 3.8%
Ekwusigo 158,231 3.8%
Nnewi North 157,569 3.8%
Anambra East 153,331 3.7%
Njikoka 148,465 3.6%
Onitsha South 136,662 3.3%
Onitsha North 124,942 3.0%
Awka North 112,608 2.7%
Dunukofia 96,382 2.3%
Total 4,182,032 100.0%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, 2006
2.3.2 Anambra Trade
Unfortunately there is a lack of data available in the public domain pertaining to trade characteristics
of Anambra State. What is known is that Anambra is a net importer of produce, i.e. more imports than
exports.
The new airport is proposed to be located in close proximity to the town of Onitsha. Onitsha is a
market town and port on the Niger River in the west of Anambra State. Onitsha’s industries include
tyre re-treading, sawmilling, printing, soft-drink bottling and textiles. Onitsha Market’s most
important local exports are palm oil and kernels, but yams, cassava, corn, citrus fruits, palm produce,
rice, taro, fish, and beef are also traded in the market.
It is assumed that the new airport will be ideally placed to cater for the transportation of imports and
export trade generated by the market, where it is economically viable to ship such items by air.
2.3.3 Economy
The local economy of Anambra State, in 2007, was ranked 16th out of Nigeria’s 36 states,
contributing 2.3% of Nigeria’s GDP.
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Table 2.2: Nigerian GDP by State
Rank State
GDP
(US$billion) % of total
1 Lagos State 33.7 11.6%
2 Rivers State 21.1 7.2%
3 Delta State 16.7 5.8%
4 Oyo State 16.1 5.5%
5 Imo State 14.2 4.9%
6 Kano State 12.4 4.3%
7 Edo State 11.9 4.1%
8 Akwa Ibom State 11.2 3.8%
9 Ogun State 10.5 3.6%
10 Kaduna State 10.3 3.6%
11 Cross River State 9.3 3.2%
12 Abia State 8.7 3.0%
13 Ondo State 8.4 2.9%
14 Osun State 7.3 2.5%
15 Benue State 6.9 2.4%
16 Anambra State 6.8 2.3%
- All Other States 85.5 29.3%
Total 291.0
Source: UN Statistics, 2007
When dividing the Anambra State GDP figure (US$6.8bn) by its population (4.2m) we see that the
GDP per capita (i.e. the average income per person) is around US$1,600 a year. Compare this figure
with that of Anambra’s neighbouring States (Lagos is included for reference);
Table 2.3: Derived GDP per capita figures
State GDP per
capita (US$)
Delta 4,300
Lagos 3,900
Imo 3,840
Edo 3,600
Rivers 3,250
Abia 2,500
Anambra 1,600
Kogi 1,500
Enugu 1,000
Source: UN Statistics / ACI; 2007
While the above table suggests Anambra State compares unfavourably with its neighbouring States in
terms of local wealth/prosperity, this can be counterbalanced to some extent by the wealth generated
by trading at Onitsha market, much of which will be by people who do not reside in Anambra itself
but do choose to trade there. Additionally, the development of the oil facilities in the state will
undoubtedly raise the overall GDP per head figure for Anambra.
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Air traffic at neighbouring airports is examined later in this report, in Section 2.5, but it is worth
investigating, here, what we can draw from this analysis.
Owerri Airport, in Imo State, achieved a passenger throughput of under 0.5 million in 2007. Benin
City Airport, in Edo State, saw under 0.2 million passengers that same year. Port Harcourt Airport, in
Rivers State, handled just under 0.3 million passengers. However, the closure of Port Harcourt Airport
for repairs for periods of time between August 2006 through to April 2008 and the transfer of services
to both Owerri and Calabar in this period will distort figures somewhat.
The Nigerian economy has seen erratic growth since 1990, but has experienced strong and solid
growth in the last 4-5 years. This robust growth is expected to continue, at least in the short-medium
term. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Nigerian GDP to grow at a very healthy 9.0%
in 2008 and 8.3% in 2009.
Figure 2.4: Nigeria GDP annual growth rates 1990-2006
8.2
4.8
2.9
2.2
0.1
2.5
4.3
2.7
1.9
1.1
5.4
3.1
1.6
10.7
6.1 6.1
5.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
GDPgrowthrate%
Source: UN Statistics, 2007
2.3.4 Nigerian Trade
The performance of the Nigerian economy in recent years has benefited both from the high world
price of oil and the efficiency gains resulting from economic reforms. The main drivers of growth in
the non-oil sector were telecommunications, general commerce, manufacturing, agriculture, and
services. Real GDP growth rate averaged 6 per cent during the period 2002-2007. A summary of
Nigeria’s GDP by sector in 2007 can be seen below:
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Figure 2.5: Nigerian GDP by industry sector, 2007
GDP by Sector in 2007
42.01%
2.31%
4.03%
16.18%
0.30%
3.85%
29.60%
1.72%
Agriculture, Oil & Gas
Telecommunications/Postal
Services
Manufacturing
Building & Construction
Distributive Trade
Solid Minerals
Finances & Insurances
Other Services
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
Export trade is driven by oil. In the first quarter of 2008, over 95% of total exports (in terms of value)
were accounted for by oil and petrol products, as shown below:
Figure 2.6: Nigerian Exports by commodity, 1st
Qtr 2008
Top Exports in Q1, 2008
Tanned or Crust hides and
other dried skins
0.4%
Dentifrices
0.4%
Sesamum seeds
0.3%
Natural gas, liquefied
0.2%
Leather
0.2%
Cotton
0.2%
Other
4.8%
Rubber
0.8%
Polyethylene
0.9%
Cocao Beans, w hole or
broken, raw or roasted
1.4%
Petrol, Oils, Bituminous
Minerals
95.2%
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
When looking at imports, it is clear that most ‘luxury’ commodities are brought into Nigeria.
TV/Radio apparatus accounts for 37% (in terms of value) of all imports in the first quarter of 2008,
with the remaining breakdown shown below:
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Figure 2.7: Nigerian Imports by commodity, 1st
Qtr 2008
Top Imports in Q1, 2008
37%
11%
11%
9%
7%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Radio/TV transmission
apparatus
Unbleached plain cotton
Spelt, common wheat
Producer gas or water gas
gene
Motorcycles (including
mopeds)
Portland & aluminous cement
Pumps for liquids, nes
Urea
Taps and other valves
Unbleached plain cotton
weave
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
2.4 Air Traffic in Nigeria
Air traffic in Nigeria has been increasing fairly strongly over the last 5 years, albeit from a low base.
According to the Airports Council International (ACI), terminal passenger throughput at Nigerian
airports has been growing at 7.7% per year since 2002, with growth in international passengers
outperforming domestic passengers. However, domestic passengers still account for nearly 70% of
total throughput in 2007, and this proportion has remained fairly constant, at around 70%, since 2002.
Air transport movements (ATMs) increased at a lower rate of 5.2% per annum. We consider this
growth to be reasonably in line with what can be expected of a burgeoning air transport industry and
developing economy, although there are mitigating factors as to why the Nigerian air transport
industry has not been experiencing significantly greater growth; political instability and a volatile
environment for visitors are the two main inhibitors to development.
As highlighted in section 2.3.3, the robust growth in Nigerian air traffic since 2002 has been mirrored
by similarly strong economic growth in that time period. Indeed, economic growth often acts as a
catalyst for growth in the aviation industry.
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Table 2.4: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports
AAGR %
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002-2007
Passengers Intl. 1,688,314 1,664,689 1,933,700 2,124,677 2,310,038 2,776,300 10.5%
Dom. 4,432,788 5,308,050 5,805,340 5,897,939 5,680,721 6,113,186 6.6%
Total Terminal 6,121,102 6,972,739 7,739,040 8,022,616 7,990,759 8,889,486 7.7%
Transit 122,164 96,681 189,168 162,035 207,711 63,646 -12.2%
ATMs Total 141,634 171,452 193,082 188,865 181,922 182,783 5.2%
Air Cargo (tonnes) 46,541 68,630 76,958 94,717 123,973 138,599 24.4%
Source: ASI / ACI.
Figure 2.8: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Passengers(millions)
0
50
100
150
200
250
ATMs(000s)
Intl Pax Dom Pax Total Pax ATMs
Source: ASI / ACI
For local competitor airport, we have sourced data from ASI who obtained this direct from the
airports themselves, thus providing the most accurate picture possible. For other airports and the
Nigerian market overall, we have also used Airports Council International (ACI) data to fill in any
remaining gaps in information.
In 2007, the ten Nigerian airports that handled the highest levels of traffic were;
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Table 2.5: Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports, 2007
City ATMs Passengers
Passengers
per ATM Cargo (tns)
Lagos 79,092 4,450,726 56 130,076
Abuja 38,564 2,198,674 57 3,737
Owerri* 8,063 516,230 64 288
Kano 5,414 381,862 70 2,484
Port Harcourt* 7,824 278,363 36 2,014
Bauchi 14,067 266,260 19 -
Warri** 13,680 227,456 17 -
Calabar* 6,307 207,542 33 -
Enugu 3,893 201,854 52 -
Benin 6,435 182,930 28 -
Kaduna 2,814 110,029 39 -
Source: ASI/ACI
*Note that due to closure of Port Harcourt airport for repair/refurbishment during 2007, its figures are lower than would be expected.
Conversely Owerri and Calabar saw their figures increase due to some Port Harcourt traffic using these airports as a substitute
** Note: the air traffic data for Warri Airport is for 2006
In terms of passenger throughput, Lagos is by far the most dominant airport in Nigeria, accounting for
50% of total passenger throughput in 2007. Abuja is the second-ranked airport handling 25% of all
passengers passing through Nigerian airports. Lagos and Abuja are Nigeria’s commercial and
political/administrative capital cities, respectively. Anambra’s neighbouring airports – Owerri, Warri,
Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt – handled a combined 16% of Nigeria’s passengers. Indeed,
Owerri Airport was the 3rd highest ranked airport in Nigeria in terms of passenger throughput in 2007,
but this figure was inflated somewhat by Port Harcourt’s closure, which would otherwise have the 3rd
largest passenger throughput in the country.
In terms of air cargo, Lagos is even more dominant with a 94% share of total air cargo throughput.
This is to be expected as Lagos is, as mentioned, the premier trade and commerce centre in the
country.
2.4.1 Propensity to fly
Air traffic development in Nigeria has generally been in line with the expectations of a developing
nation. It is recognised that a relationship exists between a country’s economic maturity and the
development of its air transport industry. As a nation’s economy grows, so does its air transport
industry. As is evidenced in the chart below, Nigeria is at the bottom of the growth curve, with a very
low GDP per capita and correspondingly low propensity to fly per head of population. As the Nigerian
economy grows, it will stimulate growth in air travel as more people will have higher incomes (and
more disposable income) and thus greater requirement for air travel for business and leisure purposes.
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Figure 2.9: GDP per capita vs Propensity to fly
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
GDP per Capita ($US)
TripsperCapita
NorwayIreland
USA
Australia
Spain SwitzerlandUK
Canada
Germany
Japan
Brazil
Poland
China
India
Source: Mott MacDonald analysis of ACI and World Bank data; 2005
Mature markets
Less mature markets
Malaysia
RomaniaPhilippines
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Singapore
NIGERIA
The propensity to fly for the Nigerian population is around 0.068 flights per capita, per year. When
this figure is applied to Anambra State, the resultant figure for total flights per year for the Anambra
population is [4.2m x 0.068 =] 285,600. Currently these flights are accommodated from neighbouring
airports such as Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and to a lesser extent Port Harcourt. It is reasonable
to suggest that the new Anambra airport will ‘claw back’ a proportion of its ‘lost’ or ‘leaked’ traffic,
perhaps as much as 50% (or half). Again, it is feasible to suggest that this would mean that the
population of Anambra State could potentially support up to 150,000 passenger movements per year
from the new Anambra Airport in the initial years of operation. As a consequence of economic
growth, the propensity to fly for Nigerians will increase as the national population prospers. Therefore
it is reasonable to make the assumption that although the propensity to fly for the Anambra population
will be low in the first few years of the airport’s operation, Anambra State will be able to support an
increasing level of air travel as the forecast period progresses.
2.4.2 Industry Forecasts
It is worth looking at what Boeing and Airbus, the two dominant manufacturers in the air transport
industry, have predicted for the African market.
Boeing, in its Current Market Outlook 2008-2027, suggests that future challenges for African nations
include modernisation;
“Four of the world’s top 20 oil-producing countries are in Africa. Economic growth is forecast
at 5.1% (over the next 20 years). Even so, the continent’s limited transportation system is
slowing the spread of economic vitality.
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Air transportation is a highly effective alternative to ground transportation over difficult
terrain. Access to landlocked areas of Africa is limited by a lack of roads and railways. The
spread of air transportation will require expansion and modernization of the continent’s
airports.”
Boeing forecasts that the strongest market for growth in Africa will be Africa-Europe, with passengers
growing at 5.4% per annum between 2008 and 2027 to reach 350 million by 2027. The intra-African
market is predicted to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6% with passenger numbers reaching 100
million in the same timescale.
Airbus, in its Global Market Forecast 2007-2026, actually segments the African market further than
Boeing. Although not specific to any country, Airbus makes the distinction between Sub-Saharan,
Northern and South Africa. Nigeria falls into the Sub-Saharan category. Airbus forecasts air passenger
traffic growth for the following markets:
Table 2.6: Airbus Forecast of Africa Sub-Sahara Market Growth Rates
Sub market Average Annual
Growth Rate %
2007-2026
Africa Sub-Sahara Africa Sub-Sahara 5.6%
Africa Sub-Sahara Asia 5.6%
Africa Sub-Sahara Australia/New Zealand 5.4%
Africa Sub-Sahara Indian Subcontinent 7.2%
Africa Sub-Sahara Middle East 8.3%
Africa Sub-Sahara North Africa 9.7%
Africa Sub-Sahara China 8.0%
Africa Sub-Sahara Russia 3.2%
Africa Sub-Sahara South Africa 8.3%
Africa Sub-Sahara South America 5.5%
Africa Sub-Sahara United States of America 5.3%
Africa Sub-Sahara Western Europe 4.5%
Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2007-2026
The intra-Africa markets (Sub-Sahara to/from Northern and South Africa) are forecast to have the
highest growth rates in the next two decades, closely followed by the emerging economies of the
Middle East, China and the Indian Subcontinent.
Whilst it is cautious not to interpret too much from a ‘blanket’ forecast covering an entire region when
attempting to focus on one specific market, i.e. Nigeria, one message is clear; that Nigeria, as an
African nation, is forecast to enjoy strong economic growth over the next two decades, on the back of
booming tourism and trade activities, increased wealth, all of which will stimulate the development of
its air transport industry.
2.4.3 Airlines of Nigeria
The main airlines operating passenger services in Nigeria are Virgin Nigeria, Bellview Airlines, Arik
Air and Aerocontractors. They all operate modern fleets, with shorthaul, single-aisle Boeing 737
aircraft on domestic Nigerian routes.
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The following is a summary of these airlines’ modern jet aircraft fleets:
Table 2.7: Airlines of Nigeria – fleet summary
Airlines Aircraft Type Seats
No of
Aircraft
B737-300 128 2
Aerocontractors
B737-400 144 2
B737-300 134 2
B737-700 137 6
B777-200 On order 2
B777-300 On order 2
B787-900 On order 3
Arik Air Ltd
A340-500 On order 2
B737-200 131 5
Bellview Airlines Limited
B767-200 191 2
B737-300 149 5
Virgin Nigeria
EMB170/190 On order 10
Source: JP Airline-Fleets International, November 2008 / Airlines
As detailed above, we can see that Arik Air has plans to acquire a handful of long range mid-size jets
(B777 & B787) and expects to take delivery of 2 A340-500 jets imminently for planned services from
Lagos to London and Houston.
According to OAG (Official Airlines Guide, October 2008), Virgin Nigeria’s domestic route network
is dominated by its Lagos-Abuja route, which currently operates at a frequency of 45 departures per
week. Lagos-Port Harcourt route is Virgin Nigeria’s second highest-frequency route with 12
departures per week. Of most interest, however, is the carrier’s service between Lagos and Owerri,
one of the neighbouring airports to Anambra. This route is operated at a frequency of 6 departures per
week on a 149-seat B737.
Likewise, Aerocontractors operate a Lagos-Enugu service at a frequency of 13 departures per week
with a 128-seat B737.
Arik Air’s most popular route is Lagos-Port Harcourt, with the carrier offering 56 weekly flights
between those two cities, as well as offering at least a twice daily service between Lagos and each of
Enugu, Benin and Warri.
We do not have access to passenger survey data, so the demand for access to Anambra from
passengers on the Lagos-Owerri/Enugu services is unknown. It is feasible that a significant proportion
of passengers on these two routes originated in, or is destined for, Anambra State.
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2.5 Benchmarking
When considering the likely growth of an airport, it is advisable to take into account similar airports in
size/nature/profile for the purposes of comparing levels of traffic throughput. In the case of the
proposed new Anambra State Airport, it is difficult to draw any comparisons as there is no existing
level of traffic. However, what we can do is to look at the profile of Anambra’s neighbouring airports
to give an indication of how the local catchment area stimulates the development of air traffic. To this
end, the following section looks at the neighbouring airports of Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and
Port Harcourt.
2.5.1 Neighbouring Airports
The Nigerian airports of Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and to a lesser extent Port Harcourt can be
considered as the closest neighbouring airports to the site of the proposed new airport in Anambra
State.
Owerri is situated 52 miles from Anambra Airport; Enugu, 47 miles; Warri, 82 miles; Benin City, 83
miles, and; Port Harcourt, 83 miles.
The following table highlights the traffic at the neighbouring airports:
Table 2.8: Neighbouring airport traffic figures, 2007
2007
Airport ATMs Passengers Pax per ATM Cargo (tns)
Owerri* 8,063 516,230 64 288
Port Harcourt* 7,824 278,363 35 2,014
Warri** 13,680 227,456 17 -
Enugu 3,893 201,084 52 -
Benin City 6,435 182,930 28 -
Source: ASI/ACI
*Note that due to closure of Port Harcourt airport for repair/refurbishment during 2007, its figures are lower than would be expected.
Conversely Owerri saw its figures increase due to some Port Harcourt traffic using it as a substitute
**Note: the air traffic data for Warri Airport is for 2006
It is immediately noticeable that each airport has a relatively low traffic throughput. Given that these
airports have runways in excess of 2,000m long, it is not necessarily the airport and its infrastructure
that is ‘holding back’ development of traffic. It is likely to be a combination of factors including a lack
of means to travel by air for much of the local population. Also significant will be the history of some
instability in the Nigerian aviation market that has seen many carriers start up services only to close
down at a later date. However Nigeria does now seem to be witnessing a growth in well-run
economically viable carriers operating modern aircraft and with a more cohesive approach to building
route networks and this bodes well for future traffic growth in the country.
Currently, Enugu only has scheduled passenger services to Lagos from the major Nigerian carriers,
operated by Aerocontractors with a B737 at a frequency of 10 departures a week.
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Likewise, Owerri only serves Lagos with 6 scheduled departures a week by Virgin Nigeria with a
B737.
Benin City also has scheduled services to Lagos only. Aerocontractors offer 21 weekly departures
from Benin City with a Dash 8-300. Virgin Nigeria operates the Lagos route with an ATR-52 at a
frequency of 13 departures a week. The smaller-capacity aircraft on this route reflects the airline’s
estimation that frequency is preferable to capacity, and that this route cannot support the utilisation of
a larger aircraft.
Indeed, Warri Airports’ major route is to Lagos, operated by Aerocontractors with 26 weekly flights.
Port Harcourt’s 2007 figures above are not an accurate reflection of the airport, given its closure for
reconstruction. Now fully reopened, it has a comparatively wider scheduled route network compared
to the other airports;
Table 2.9: Port Harcourt scheduled route network
Scheduled Route
from Port Harcourt:
Departures
per week
Airline operator Aircraft type
Abuja 20 Chanchangi Airlines; Aerocontractors B727; B737
Douala (Cameroon) 1 Bellview Airlines B737
Lagos 63 Chanchangi Airlines; Aerocontractors;
Bellview Airlines; Virgin Nigeria
B727; B737
Paris (France) 4 Air France A319
Source: OAG October 2008
As evidenced above, the Port Harcourt-Lagos route still dominates the scheduled services at Port
Harcourt, as does the Lagos route at Owerri, Enugu and Benin City.
Lufthansa has been quoted as suggesting that it intends to reintroduce Port Harcourt services to
Frankfurt when possible, but this has yet to materialise. Port Harcourt also used to have direct service
to London operated by Virgin Atlantic. However upon formation of Virgin Nigeria, the airline took
the decision to hub all its Nigerian traffic through Lagos.
There is a clear pattern emerging from the analysis of the scheduled route
networks from the neighbouring (and thus future competing) airports. Lagos is the
core route from regional Nigerian cities. Lagos attracts feeder services to its hub,
and from there passengers can access international services.
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2.6 Air Traffic Demand Forecasts
Currently, residents of Anambra State must travel further than 100km in an often volatile environment
to gain access to an airport. A conventional passenger demand forecast will look at the level of
demand for air travel generated by the population within an airport’s catchment area. However, in this
case, the local demand for leisure travel is going to be initially very low on account of the fact that air
travel is, and will remain for some time in Nigeria, a privilege for a minority, at least until the average
wage increases significantly and air fares fall significantly. Although Anambra is home to over 4
million people, the level of leisure traffic demand stimulated by a new airport will be constrained by
the relative poverty of the local population. Business traffic demand, however, certainly could be
generated with the introduction of routes to the main Nigerian commercial centres such as Lagos,
Abuja and Port Harcourt, especially given the oil facilities and Onitsha Market close to the new
airport.
For the purposes of this report, we make the distinction between Scheduled traffic and Charter (ad
hoc) traffic.
2.6.1 Transport of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel
The primary objective of Orient in the development of Anambra Airport is to use it for the safe
transportation of the Oil and Gas Facilities personnel to and from the State.
The majority of air transport movements generated by transporting Oil and Gas Facilities personnel
will be Charter (ad hoc) in nature, but we estimate that around 30% of these air travellers will use the
new scheduled services connecting Anambra with Lagos over the course of the forecast period. Taking
this into account, the summary table below represents passengers and ATMs that are separate to the
scheduled traffic demand forecast, omitting 30% of the total demand from Oil and Gas Facilities
personnel from the table below, and absorbing that 30% of passengers into the scheduled forecast in
Section 2.6.2.
Table 2.10: Oil and Gas Facilities personnel demand forecast
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Passengers 9,408 17,976 24,696 29,400 31,080 31,080 31,080 33,264
ATMs 81 155 213 253 268 268 268 287
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Passengers 33,264 34,104 34,104 36,540 37,380 37,380 37,380 37,380
ATMs 287 294 294 315 322 322 322 322
(i) Assumptions
The assumptions feeding into this part of the traffic demand forecast are taken from Orient’s
expectations of growth at the Oil and Gas Facilities, and are detailed as follows;
• Anambra Airport is expected to commence operations mid-2009
• The Oil and Gas Facilities personnel comprise the following activities;
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o Oil Refinery workers
o Upstream exploration and production staff
o Gas processing/distribution and power personnel
o Supporting infrastructure staff
• The aircraft type used to transport personnel will be the B737-300, in Aerocontractors’
configuration of 116 seats.
• Strong growth in Oil and Gas activities from Year 1 to Year 3; and steadier growth in the
subsequent years.
• Workforce will consist of around 30-40% expatriates reliant on air travel to get to work and to
get home.
• Each of these workers reliant upon air travel will make an estimated 1 return flight per 2
months (i.e. 6 return flights per calendar year).
2.6.2 Scheduled Business and Leisure traffic demand – Mott MacDonald
assumptions
We have forecast the demand for scheduled business and leisure air traffic at Anambra Airport
assuming 2009 as the base year of operations and extending the forecast period out to 2024.
(i) General assumptions
There are several core overriding assumptions that need to be understood. There are certain socio-
economic factors that must be put into context when building up this demand forecast;
• Catchment area; although a captive population of over 4 million people reside in Anambra
Airport’s proximity, the propensity to fly (or more to the point, the inability to afford air
travel) for Nigerians restricts air travel to only the most affluent sections of the population at
the present time.
• According to available information, the State of Anambra has a comparatively less-wealthy
local population than the majority of its surrounding States. Logically, this indicates that
Anambra Airport should not attain the levels of traffic throughput of airports in some of the
surrounding States (notably Owerri, Benin City and Port Harcourt Airports).
• Given the low level of air traffic throughput currently being experienced at Anambra’s
neighbouring airports, it is logical that a new airport in Anambra State will achieve similar, if
not lower levels of passenger and aircraft movements in an environment of unproven demand.
• Government personnel will use scheduled air services at Anambra Airport to travel to/from
Anambra State. Where there are no direct air services between Anambra and a local
government, personnel will connect via Lagos.
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• Although no evidence has been provided of the proposed Orient Oil Refinery’s economic
impact on the local populace, we are prepared to assume that it will have a positive effect on
the local economy, allowing greater propensity for air travel to be stimulated over the course
of the forecast period.
• Onitsha Market should help to stimulate business demand, particularly given that currently
traders at the market need to use road transport to access it. A regular air service may prove to
be highly attractive to those who can afford it and have the longest travel distances.
Table 2.11: Scheduled Traffic Demand Forecast
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Base Case 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Passengers (m) 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.55 0.60
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 31% 38% 9% 10% 9% 18% 10%
ATMs (000s) 1.1 2.2 2.7 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.2 6.4 6.9
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 24% 54% 5% 12% 6% 24% 6%
Low Case
Passengers (m) 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.31 0.32
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 4% 53% 5% 2% 13% 29% 4%
ATMs (000s) 0.7 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.0
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 0% 79% 0% 8% 11% 27% 0%
High Case
Passengers (m) 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.35 0.46 0.56 0.72 0.84 0.98
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 31% 38% 29% 24% 27% 17% 17%
ATMs (000s) 1.1 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.1 6.3 7.7 9.3 10.8
% chg v prev. yr. 100% 24% 54% 23% 24% 21% 20% 17%
High: High Case
Passengers (m) 1.11 4.44 4.64 4.84 5.06 5.29 5.53 5.78 6.04
% chg v prev. yr. 300% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%
ATMs (000s) 12.4 49.5 51.7 54.1 56.5 59.0 61.7 64.5 67.4
% chg v prev. yr. 299% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%
Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AAGR %
Base Case 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009-2024
Passengers (m) 0.66 0.72 0.80 0.88 0.96 1.06 1.17 17.9%
% chg v prev. yr. 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
ATMs (000s) 7.1 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 11.4 12.6 17.7%
% chg v prev. yr. 3% 8% 12% 10% 8% 11% 11%
Low Case
Passengers (m) 0.34 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.49 14.7%
% chg v prev. yr. 4% 12% 7% 2% 6% 6% 6%
ATMs (000s) 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 15.8%
% chg v prev. yr. 11% 10% 9% 8% 0% 17% 0%
High Case
Passengers (m) 1.03 1.07 1.22 1.32 1.41 1.49 1.63 20.6%
% chg v prev. yr. 5% 4% 14% 8% 7% 6% 9%
ATMs (000s) 11.2 11.2 12.9 14.6 15.0 17.2 17.5 20.3%
% chg v prev. yr. 4% 0% 15% 13% 3% 15% 2%
High: High Case
Passengers (m) 6.31 6.59 6.89 7.20 7.52 7.86 8.21 14.3%
% chg v prev. yr. 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4%
ATMs (000s) 70.4 73.6 76.9 80.3 84.0 87.7 91.7 14.3%
% chg v prev. yr. 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5%
There are several underlying assumptions forming the basis of scheduled traffic as summarised below;
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(ii) Base Case assumptions
• Year 1 of operations (half-year figures due to Airport opening mid-year); routes to Lagos and
Abuja at frequency of 1 return flight per day (2 airlines on Lagos route); all operations with
B737.
• Year 3; Kano route introduced at 1 return flight per weekday with B737;
• Year 4; Port Harcourt route introduced at 1 return flight per weekday with Dash 8-300;
• Frequencies to increase over forecast period; on all routes, frequencies increase incrementally
up to 3 daily return flights by Year 16; for Lagos/Abuja routes, increase to twice daily return
flights in Year 8; for Kano route, increase to twice daily return in Year 9; for Port Harcourt,
increase to twice daily return flight in Year 10.
• Passenger Load Factors (PLF %) at 65% on commencement of route – increasing with route
maturity and time
• Government personnel travelling to/from Anambra State using these scheduled services
account for 33% of scheduled passengers in Year 1 (approximately 33,000) and 18% by Year
16 (approx. 211,000).
• Key milestones; 0.5 million passengers per annum (mppa) by Year 8; 1.17 mppa by Year 16
• Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 17.9% between Year 1 and 16
(iii) Low Case assumptions
Same as Base Case; except –
• Only 1 carrier on Lagos route using B737.
• Kano route not operated
• Key milestones; 0.25 mppa by Year 8; 0.5 mppa by Year 16
• AAGR of 14.7% between Year 1 and 16.
(iv) High Case assumptions
Same as Base Case; except –
• Year 5; Kaduna route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737
• Year 6; Sokoto route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737
• Year 7; Maiduguri route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737
• Key milestones; 0.5 mppa by Year 6; 1.0 mppa by Year 10; 1.5 mppa by Year 15
• AAGR of 20.6% between Year 1 and 16.
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(v) High: High Case assumptions
Orient supplied its own set of demand forecast assumptions for scheduled traffic at Anambra Airport.
They are as follows:
• Lagos and Abuja domestic routes; 6 return flights per day at opening, increasing to 12 return
flights per day in Year 2.
• Kaduna, Kano, Jos, Port Harcourt, Warri, Calabar, Maiduguri domestic routes; 2 return flights
per day at opening, increasing to 4 return flights per day in Year 2.
• Libreville, Dakar, Douala, Abidjan international routes; 2 return flights per day at opening,
increasing to 4 return flights per day in Year 2.
• All flights using B737-300 (128 seats).
• Organic growth applied at 4.5% per annum from Year 2 to end of forecast period.
• 70% Passenger Load Factor on all flights.
Applying the ‘High: High Case’ assumptions yields a forecast which varies significantly from Mott
MacDonald’s assessment of demand at Anambra Airport for scheduled traffic. Essentially, the ‘High:
High Case’ forecast implies that Anambra Airport will achieve the level of passenger throughput in
Year 2 of its operations that Lagos Airport achieved in 2007 (approximately 4.4 million) after many
years of traffic stimulation. Given the current low level of traffic and paucity of scheduled services at
the neighbouring airports, we consider Orients’ assumptions to be over-ambitious for a new airport
that is in an area with no history of air services, particularly given the traffic levels of other Nigerian
Airports, and the somewhat chequered level of service provision across the country in the past. We do
however believe that there is the basis for a vibrant and growing traffic base at the airport in the future
but it would be optimistic to think that this would arrive very quickly upon opening, especially given
the relatively low seat capacity in the Nigerian market, particularly given the population size of the
country. While Nigerian carriers will undoubtedly increase the size of their fleets to meet future traffic
demands across the country, this has up to now been a slow process. With this in mind we recommend
that our somewhat more conservative forecast is adopted reflecting the wider market dynamics of
Nigeria.
2.6.3 Transport of Government personnel
The new airport will also be used to transport Government personnel to Anambra State. This section
of traffic has been absorbed into the demand forecast for scheduled traffic.
2.6.4 Air Cargo Traffic Demand
One of the objectives of the airport is to serve as a centre for transporting inbound and outbound cargo
to and from the local region.
The following assumptions for air cargo traffic throughput at the proposed Anambra Airport have been
supplied by Orient Petroleum Resources plc;
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• Anambra Airport will be used to transport ad hoc cargo for the construction and
subsequent operation of the Oil Refinery and Facilities.
• Markets in Anambra receive about 50 x 40ft containers per day, plus about 100 x 20ft
containers per day.
• Additionally, Anambra receives more than 200 trailers and trucks with imports per day.
• Anambra Airport will receive an estimated 2 cargo flights (inbound) per day at inception
and increase to 4 per day in the first six months of operation. Organic growth at 4.5% has
been applied in the subsequent years.
• There is also a requirement to transport Jet-A1 fuel (product of the Oil Refinery) to other
parts of Nigeria. This is estimated to comprise 4 daily outbound flights at inception.
• An estimation of potential cargo volume throughput (in tonnes) has been made. Between
Years 1 and 8, a figure of 10 tonnes per air cargo movement has been applied; between
Years 9 and 16, the figure increases to 15 tonnes per air cargo movement. This yields an
average annual growth rate of 14.5% throughout the forecast period.
Table 2.12: Orient – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
General Cargo mvts 728 2,912 3,043 3,180 3,323 3,473 3,629 3,792
Jet Fuel mvts 1,456 3,043 3,180 3,323 3,473 3,629 3,792 3,963
Total Cargo mvts 2,184 5,955 6,223 6,503 6,796 7,101 7,421 7,755
Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 21,840 59,550 62,230 65,031 67,957 71,015 74,211 77,550
Year 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
General Cargo mvts 3,963 4,141 4,328 4,522 4,726 4,938 5,161 5,393
Jet Fuel mvts 4,141 4,328 4,522 4,726 4,938 5,161 5,393 5,636
Total Cargo mvts 8,104 8,469 8,850 9,248 9,664 10,099 10,553 11,028
Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 121,560 127,030 132,746 138,720 144,962 151,486 158,302 165,426
Mott MacDonald has assessed the air cargo traffic figures generated by Orient’s assumptions. The
resulting air cargo throughput seems exceptionally high when compared to the cargo traffic at Owerri
Airport (288 tonnes per year) and Port Harcourt (2,014 tonnes per year). Even Lagos Airport only
handles 133,000 tonnes per year. Mott MacDonald has produced its own assessment of forecast
demand for air cargo traffic, using the following assumptions;
• For general air cargo; 1 return flight per week at inception
• For Jet Fuel cargo; 2 return flights per week at inception
• Organic growth thereafter at 5% per annum.
• Average of 5 tonnes of cargo per movement,
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Table 2.13: Mott MacDonald – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
General Cargo mvts 52 104 109 115 120 126 133 139
Jet Fuel mvts 104 208 218 229 241 253 265 279
Total Cargo mvts 156 312 328 344 361 379 398 418
Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 2,340 2,574 2,831 3,115 3,426 3,683 3,959 4,256
Year 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
General Cargo mvts 146 154 161 169 178 187 196 206
Jet Fuel mvts 293 307 323 339 356 374 392 412
Total Cargo mvts 439 461 484 508 534 560 588 618
Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 4,575 4,918 5,164 5,423 5,694 5,978 6,277 6,591
We estimate air cargo throughput to reach 2,340 tonnes in the 1st
Year (half-year operation), and to
increase to over 6,500 tonnes by the end of the forecast period. This seems reasonable given the level
of cargo traffic at neighbouring Port Harcourt Airport, and indeed all other airports other than Lagos in
Nigeria. Whilst this figure remains somewhat smaller than the levels seen at Lagos, Nigeria’s primary
air cargo hub, the oil facilities and Onitsha Market should enable Anambra Airport to achieve higher
levels of cargo throughput than other regional airports in Nigeria. Should cargo levels increase
significantly beyond those of the forecasts, the facilities at the airport have been designed with to
accommodate substantially more cargo throughput should it be required.
2.6.5 Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Having provided a segmental breakdown, this section combines each segment’s contribution to
passenger and air transport movement throughput at Anambra Airport over the forecast period.
The Base Case Scheduled passenger and ATM demand has been added to the passenger and ATM
demand derived from the movements of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel. This has then been
combined with the air transport movements generated by cargo traffic, yielding the summary figures
below.
Table 2.14: Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Annual Throughput 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Passengers (m) 0.13 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.47 0.51 0.56 0.65 0.70
ATMs (000s) 1.8 3.5 4.1 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.0 8.3 8.9
Estimated Cargo (000' tonnes) 2,340 2,574 2,831 3,115 3,426 3,683 3,959 4,256 4,575
Pax per ATM 74.8 74.8 79.7 76.1 78.5 77.8 79.7 77.5 79.6
Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AAGR %
Annual Throughput 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009-2024
Passengers (m) 0.77 0.85 0.93 1.02 1.11 1.22 1.34 16.7%
ATMs (000s) 9.2 9.9 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.2 15.6 15.7%
Estimated Cargo (000' tonnes) 4,918 5,164 5,423 5,694 5,978 6,277 6,591 7.1%
Pax per ATM 83.8 85.1 84.5 84.5 85.8 85.7 85.7
Key points of the forecast:
• Annual passenger throughput in Year 1 (half-year operation) is expected to reach 0.13 million;
0.5 million in Year 6; 1.0 million in Year 13.
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• Annual ATMs in Year 1 are expected to reach 1,800; 7,000 in Year 7; 15,600 in Year 16.
• Passenger throughput is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 16.7%; ATMs to grow
at 15.7%.
• The average number of passengers per ATM will remain around the 75-85 mark, on account
of the predominant use of B737s on passenger services.
• Air cargo throughput to increase at 7.1% AAGR, from 2,340 tonnes in Year 1 to 6,591 tonnes
in Year 16.
2.7 Peak hour movements
While annual traffic levels are important from an investment and profitability point of view, these do
not have a substantial bearing on the design of airport facilities. It is Peak hour forecasts that
determine the required size of airport facilities.
Given the likely traffic profile of the airport, with a high degree of usage for business purposes (oil,
regional government, market trading), we would expect to see the airport to have a marked peak
period during the weekday mornings and late afternoon / early evenings, as scheduled flights to key
destinations arrive and depart, with the rest of the day being relatively quiet by comparison. As the
market grows we would then expect to see traffic start to grow in the non-peak periods, (such as
around the middle of the day) as airlines add frequency to existing routes, particularly if airlines
decide to base aircraft at the airport. This is a common profile for an airport with a high proportion of
business usage and Anambra Airport should be no different in this respect. However, a high degree of
charter flights could see the airport maintain a reasonable level of movements throughout the day,
although exactly when charter flights might arrive and depart is impossible to predict with any degree
of accuracy at this stage.
Freight aircraft tend to arrive and depart during periods that would normally be considered off-peak
for passenger operations.
Within three years of the airport opening we would expect to see a peak period of four scheduled
passenger aircraft in an hour, most likely comprising of two flights to or from Lagos (by competing
airlines), one to/from Abuja and one other destination. These services would be operated by aircraft up
to Boeing 737 (of various types) size or similar. Given continued growth of the Nigerian air transport
market it would be prudent to design around peak hour operations of Boeing 737-800 or Airbus A320
model aircraft (with all-economy seating of up to 189 passengers but more likely to operate in a 2
class configuration on a lower seating figure) as these will undoubtedly enter the Nigerian market at
some stage in the future.
Should airlines decide to base aircraft at Anambra Airport to operate scheduled flights, then the peak
periods will become pronounced in a series of waves across the day, as the aircraft leaves in the early
morning peak, arrives back later with a return flight, then departs again and so on throughout the day.
However even with based aircraft, the peak hour traffic level should not rise too greatly, as it enables
more of the flights to spread out across the day at the airport, rather than condenses movements into
one short period.
The impact of the peak hour operations on the airport design will be discussed in more detail later in
the report.
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2.8 Conclusions
From the analysis of the current state of the Nigerian air transport industry and of the Nigerian and
Anambran economy, it has been essential to reflect what has been happening and is likely to happen in
the future within the demand forecast for air traffic at Anambra Airport. In this sense, it is worthwhile
reiterating the following points;
• The Nigerian economy is expected to experience robust and continued growth in the next two
decades;
• This will inevitably increase the Nigerian population’s propensity for air travel.
• The Anambra Airport catchment area of approximately 4.2 million people can stimulate demand
for air services at the new airport, but only to a certain degree – the vast majority of the local
population will be prohibited from air travel because of price.
• The airport will see traffic generated from a number of different sources (oil, governmental,
Onitsha market, visiting friends and relatives etc). This diversity of traffic will mean the airport
avoids over-reliance on one type of traffic and therefore provides a more stable platform for long
term growth.
• Neighbouring airports currently have a low level of air traffic activity. This has a bearing on how
much air traffic we can reasonably expect Anambra Airport to achieve. The largest of the
neighbouring airports – Owerri – only handles 0.5 million passengers today, after many years of
operation. This suggests that the local demand for air services is currently low at today’s market
prices.
• The route network of scheduled services from neighbouring airports is still limited. Each of
Owerri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt airports effectively acts as ‘feeder airports’ with
links to Lagos, enabling domestic passengers to connect on to international services. This is the
role we envisage for Anambra Airport.
• Mott MacDonald’s calculations for air traffic demand at Anambra Airport assume that the
neighbouring airports of Owerri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt remain operational
throughout the forecast period. It may transpire that the introduction of a competing airport in
Anambra State culminates in the closure of one or more of the neighbouring airports, or an airline
operating there to curtail services and move them to Anambra. This could result in Anambra
Airport serving a wider local population, and indeed could become a large regional airport.
• Nigerian airlines have yet to reach a level of market maturity with comprehensive, cohesive route
networks. This has meant that regional airports are still suffering from somewhat limited flights
and routes than would be expected for the local catchment area population size.
• While the oil facilities and Onitsha market will provide a basis for freight traffic at Anambra
Airport, this has to be tempered in line with the reality that even Lagos Airport, serving Nigeria’s
major trade and commerce centre, and its main international gateway and national hub, only
manages an annual throughput of around 133,000 tonnes. Freight traffic elsewhere in Nigeria is
still only on a small scale and we do not foresee regional airports generating high levels of freight
traffic in the forecast horizon – particularly given the very low usage of dedicated freight aircraft
by Nigerian airlines.
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3 Master Plan
3.1 Master Plan Assumptions
This chapter describes the principal Master Plan facilities.
In developing a Master Plan for the new Anambra State Airport there are several factors that have
been taken into account. The main elements to be considered are:
• Topography in the immediate vicinity of the airport
• Local development
• Meteorology of the area, including reference temperatures
• Primary proposed use of the airport, including planned design aircraft
Each of these factors must be considered so as to obtain the optimum placement and orientation of the
runway, as well as the dimensional requirements of the runway and associated airport infrastructure.
3.1.1 Preliminary Airfield Design Assumptions
In developing the preliminary airfield design the following assumptions have been made.
• The airport is to cater for aircraft in the Code E category, with the design aircraft being the
Boeing 747-400.
• The airport is to provide a 24 hour operational capability, to cater for delivery of crucial oil
refinery equipment
• The airport should have the capability to serve Code F cargo aircraft in the future, should they
be required for delivery of oil refinery equipment. Critical spatial dimensions will be to ICAO
Code F SARPS, but it is not intended to provide ant facilities sized for Code F aircraft in the
initial phases
• The aerodrome site is relatively flat and of a suitable ground quality to allow development
• There are no tall structures or high ground in the immediate vicinity (within 15km of the
aerodrome reference point), which could impinge on safe airport operations.
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3.2 Airfield Design
3.2.1 Wind Analysis
Wind rose data has been received from Orient Petroleum Resources Plc, which was issued to them by
the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, detailing its strength and direction at the location of the
proposed site.
It is stated within Annex 14 that the number and orientation of runways at an aerodrome should be
such that the usability factor of the aerodrome is not less than 95% for the aeroplanes that the
aerodrome is intended to serve.
It is also stated that in the calculation of the above it should also be assumed that landing or take-off of
aeroplanes is, in normal circumstances, precluded when the cross-wind component exceeds:
• 37 km/h (20kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is 1,500m or over.
• 24 km/h (13kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is 1,200m or over.
• 19 km/h (10kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is below 1,200m.
The wind data received from Orient Petroleum Resources Plc included the diagrams given in Figure
3.10.
Figure 3.10: Wind direction and wind speed diagrams
This diagram is in the form of a wind rose and illustrates both the direction and speed of the wind over
an undefined period. It is not possible to determine from the diagrams a consistent cross-tabulation of
wind direction and speed by frequency, which is required for the calculation of runway usability.
However, the following diagram (figure 3.11) suggests that on over 95% of occasions the wind is
below 10 m/s, which equates to 36 km/h or 18.52 knots.
This suggests that the runway will be sufficiently usable for all operations with a reference field length
of greater than 1,500m, which approximately equates to some aircraft of Code 3C and to all aircraft of
Code 3D, and Code 4.
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Figure 3.11: Frequency of wind speed in proposed location
Runway usability for operations of Aircraft Codes less than 3C is not discernable from Figures 3.10
and 3.11, although it is noted that the prevailing wind is from the west but with the strongest winds
from the north-east. The frequency of the Wind Speed diagram is not given and the diagram cannot be
fully interpreted.
Provisionally, it is suggested that an east-west alignment is optimal based on the wind data provided.
3.2.2 Topography
We have based our airfield siting and runway alignment within the Orient Petroleum site boundary,
and the land around the current land ownership boundary available for purchase to OPR, on the basis
of the 15km radius map provided by Orient Petroleum Resources, replicated in appendix B.
3.2.3 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces
The runway location and alignment has been established through the analysis of wind data and the
initial assessment of the topography. The topographical assessment involved extracting a grid of
levels (250m x 250m) from the 15km digital terrain information provided. The result of this analysis
for each possible alignment, in conjunction with the wind rose analysis, has led to the development of
a preferred option.
However, it should be noted that the data provided is only topographical information. Calculations
have been made using ground levels, wherefore no allowance for obstacles such as trees, buildings or
pylons has been made, which would increase the magnitude of any penetrations. An aerodrome
obstacle survey should be conducted in accordance with ICAO Annex 14 as this will enable the full
extent of the obstacles to be accurately surveyed and assessed.
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3.2.4 Runway Alignment
The alignment of the runways has been assessed using the topographical information and wind rose
analysis provided.
Four runway alignment options had initially been developed:
(i) Alignment Option 1
This alignment exactly follows the East-West wind direction, but the airfield partially lies outside the
current OPR land ownership boundary. The land immediately outside the current OPR land boundary
is fairly level, therefore any earthworks required would be fairly similar in nature to the earthworks to
be performed within the current site.
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However, using land outside of the current OPR land ownership boundaries might have additional
environmental impacts that have not previously been considered by the EIA.
(ii) Alignment Option 2
The second option is aligned parallel to the South-West to North-East site boundary, but is the least
properly aligned with the prevailing wind direction.
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(iii) Alignment Option 3
The third option is a compromise between the best fit within the site boundary and alignment with the
prevailing wind direction while taking into account the Obstacle Limitation Surfaces. This option does
however significantly reduce the amount of land to the south of the runways that is available for
development.
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(iv) Alignment Option 4
Alignment option four combines the best possible fit within the site boundary and alignment with the
prevailing wind direction while allowing for a significant area of land within the site boundary to be
used for airfield development. This alignment also proved to be a favourable option towards the
topographic obstacle limitation surface study.
(v) Availability of Additional Land
In response to a request from OPR contained in an e-mail dated 20 November, the optimum runway
alignment has been reassessed, removing the need for it to be constrained by the current land
ownership boundary.
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The image below shows the additional land now potentially available to OPR for the development of
Anambra Airport, plus it is understood that further land to the East of the site may also be available:
Figure 3.12: Land Potentially Available Outside Current OPR Land Ownership
Boundary
Taking into consideration the potential availability of additional land, three additional runway
alignment options have been developed. Two of these options have been developed for an East-West
alignment (Options 5 and 6), which both show a significant number of penetrations, some in excess of
20m, to the critical Approach surfaces and Take-Off & Climb surfaces beyond the Eastern end of the
runway. Moving these alignments further beyond the Western site boundary than Option 1 will result
in similar issues on the Western side.
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Figure 3.13: Overview of Runway Alignment Options
With wind direction and speeds not likely to have any significant impact on the alignment of the
runway, a third alignment (Option 7) has been developed, effectively being a fine-tuned version of
option 4. This alignment attempts to minimise the level of penetrations of the ICAO Annex 14
Obstacle Limitation Surfaces (OLS), is aligned with the direction of the highest prevailing wind
speeds and lies wholly within the current OPR site boundary, providing a safe runway with a very high
usability level while minimising or even preventing additional land purchase.
This runway alignment, as shown below, lies entirely within the site boundary with the exception of
the Northern approach lights.
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Figure 3.14: Preferred Alignment Option 7
Using the supplied topographic data, we have repeated our analysis of the ICAO Annex 14 Obstacle
Limitation Surfaces (OLS) for this runway alignment, which shows a minimal number of penetrations
of the OLS surfaces. There are no penetrations of any of the critical Approach and Take-Off & Climb
surfaces and only one penetration of the transitional surface of 1.49m, which would be removed
during the overall levelling of the site. Option 7 also only has roughly 35% of the number of
penetrations of the other non critical OLSs calculated for Option 1, with the highest penetration in
Option 7 being roughly 20m lower than the highest penetration in Option 1. Based on the OLS
analysis this alignment is preferable to Option 1.
It should be borne in mind that all OLS analyses have been calculated using ground levels and do not
take into account the additional height of any obstacles such as trees, structures, etc. which would
increase the magnitude of any penetrations.
(vi) Preferred Alignment
On the basis of the wind data currently provided, it is not possible to differentiate between Options 1
and 7 in terms of runway usability, both appear to perform adequately. Additional analysis of the
original wind data would be required to determine if there is a difference in performance between
either runway alignment.
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Option 7 has the least and lowest penetrations of the OLS surfaces as analysed in accordance with
ICAO Annex 14, it also does not require any further land acquisition. It is our assessment, therefore,
that on the basis of the available data this is the preferred alignment.
Figure 3.15: Option 7 in Relation to the Wind Rose
The grid coordinates of this option are as follows:
Easting Northing
Southern main runway threshold 488790.846 249977.440
Northern main runway threshold 492065.495 251712.692
Southern main taxiway threshold 488889.174 249791.882
Northern main taxiway threshold 492163.823 251527.134
Aerodrome Reference Point 490428.170 250845.066
N
EW
S
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
3-12
247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-12 of 12
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/
3.2.5 Navigational Aids
Several different types of navigational aids will be installed at the airfield and land needs to be
safeguarded for the different system elements, in accordance with the requirements of ICAO
Annex 10. Not all of these may be installed in the first phase.
- A Precision Approach Path Indicator (PAPI) system will be installed next to either end of the
main runway, located approximately 300m beyond the threshold alongside the touchdown
point.
Figure 3.16: PAPI System Next to a Runway
- The ILS localizer antenna is located at least 310m away from the threshold of the runway it
serves, across the extended runway centreline.
Figure 3.17: ILS Localiser Antenna
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
3-13
247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-13 of 13
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/
- The ILS glidepath antenna is also located between the threshold and the touchdown point,
offset to one or other side of the runway. In this case it would be on the opposite side to the
planned parallel taxiway.
Figure 3.18: ILS Glide Path Antenna
- The DME beacon is located on the same vertical axis as the ILS glide path antenna
- The site of the VOR beacon should be on the highest ground in the vicinity of the airfield in
order to obtain the greatest line-of-sight coverage and should be level or should slope away
from the station (at a downgrade not exceeding 4 per cent) to a distance of at least 300m and
preferably to 600m from the station. The site contours should be circular with respect to the
antenna array to a radius of at least 300 m.
- The NDB/DME and VOR systems will be provided by the NCAA
Table 3.15: DME/DVOR Array
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
3-14
247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-14 of 14
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/
The array of approach lights to a precision instrument runway is 900m long (measured up to the
threshold). A simple array of approach lights (as may be required for the emergency runway) would
be 420m long.
3.2.6 Design Aircraft
The largest aircraft that is intended to serve is the Boeing B747F (freighter). This is classified by
ICAO Annex 14 as Code E (wingspan <65m) and would be used to determine spatial separations,
obstacle clearances and indicative pavement constructions (for cost planning purposes). Operations by
passenger aircraft of this size category are not envisaged in any of the phases under consideration in
this Master Plan.
Operations by Code D aircraft (wingspan <52m) would be permissible within all Code E limits.
Most domestic and regional air passenger services are undertaken by aircraft with a wingspan of <36m
(Code C) and many oil-related air-taxi services by aircraft with a wingspan <24m (Code B).
Regular operations by Code F aircraft (wingspan <80m, i.e. up to the Airbus A380), including the
Antonov An-124 are not envisaged, although an occasional visit carrying (say) an exceptional cargo
load is conceivable.
Of itself, such an occasional visit would not warrant designing and building the airfield to Code F
standards. However, some of the differences between the required separations and clearances for
Code E and Code F aircraft are not substantial. For example, the minimum separation between an
instrument runway and its parallel taxiway is 182.5m for Code E and 190m for Code F and the
respective taxiway centreline to object clearances are 47.5m and 57.5m. Therefore, planning the
position of runways and taxiways to allow for unhindered Code F movements would not increase
spatial requirements and costs to a significant extent. It is the provision of wider runways (60m for
Code F, compared with 45m for Code E) and to a lesser extent, wider taxiways (25m v 23m) that adds
significantly to the construction cost. Therefore it is proposed to plan the airfield with suitable spatial
clearances for Code F aircraft, such increases in pavement widths could then be readily added at some
later date, and only then, if demand for regular services by Code F aircraft were to develop.
For airport planning purposes, helicopters with a single rotor disc of up to 19m diameter (such as the
EH101 or Sikorsky Sea King) will be accommodated on at least one helicopter parking position. If
other positions are required they may be planned for a 16m diameter rotor disc, which will
accommodate the Puma, Sikorsky S76 and smaller rotary-winged aircraft.
3.2.7 Runway Length
The length of the runway has been defined based upon the length required to serve the design aircraft,
the Boeing 747-400. It is recognised that some of the older Boeing 747 variants may require a slightly
longer runway length, but as many of these are being phased out, and to reduce the costs and land take
required, the decision was made to use the -400 variant.
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
3-15
247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-15 of 15
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/
The initial phase in assessing the runway length requirement was performed utilising the Airport
Design Manuals related to the B747-400, as published by Boeing. These manuals include aircraft
performance graphs which, given a defined take off weight and range requirement, can be used to
ascertain a runway length for specific aircraft types. In this case, these graphs were assessed with
respect to the aircraft maximum take off weight. The runway length required was found to be 3400m.
It should be noted, however, that this runway length is based upon Standard Atmospheric (ISA)
conditions at sea level, at a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius, assuming a standard temperature
gradient. Such a standard gradient is not observed in this region. At higher altitudes and
temperatures, with respect to the Standard Atmosphere, the air density is lower and aircraft must
achieve higher speeds before take-off. Hence a longer runway is required. With respect to the
Anambra site, its altitude will be close enough to sea level for that effect to be ignored. Its reference
temperature has been taken from the dry bulb temperature, provided to us by OPR, which is
39 degrees Celsius. This figure has therefore been used to adjust the runway length on the following
basis:
The ICAO recommendation is to increase the Runway Length by 0.1% for every degree above ISA
temperature.
The adjusted runway length is therefore:
(Standard Runway length at ISA conditions plus 15 degrees Celsius x (0.01 x 9 deg)) + (Standard
Runway length at ISA conditions plus 15 degrees Celsius) = 3706m
This runway length has been used within our Master Plan.
3.2.8 Runway Width and Other Parameters
A runway of this length will be classified by ICAO as a Code 4E runway
The runway width will be 45m with a 7.5m wide shoulder each side.
At this stage we assume that the runway will have a constant longitudinal fall from east to west of
0.54% (20m).
The runway strip width will be 300m for the main instrument approach runway and need be only
150m for the emergency visual approach runway. The Runway End Safety Zones (RESAs) will be
240m long by 150m wide.
3.2.9 Runway Configuration
Options for the runway configuration were discussed in detail in the Scoping Report. It was agreed
that the airport would have a main instrument runway capable of 24-hour operations. In addition the
spatial planning for a full length parallel taxiway would be to permit that taxiway to also act as a
reserve visual runway. This is the configuration with which we have proceeded. However, while
there is no intention to provide the reserve runway with an instrument landing system, or any other
aids to permit precision approaches to that runway, it would be relatively simple to utilise some of the
other navigation aids and/or GPS (once permitted) to undertake non-precision instrument approaches
to that runway. We have therefore added a discussion in this revision on the implications of allowing
for non-precision instrument approaches to the reserve runway.
Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald
Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited
3-16
247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-16 of 16
P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final
Report vC.doc/
As it is intended that the main parallel taxiway can also act as a reserve runway, in all cases, the
separation between that and the next taxiway must at least be the relevant runway to taxiway
separation and not the taxiway to taxiway separation.
Figure 3.19: Single Runway with Reserve Runway
In terms of aircraft size, as mentioned above, the airport has been designed to initially cater for Code E
aircraft operations, but with the spatial separations and clearances to enable it to be readily upgraded
to serve Code F cargo aircraft, should they be required at some time in the future. The minimum
runway to taxiway separation that safeguards for Code F instrument approaches is 190 m, whereas the
minimum runway to taxiway separation that safeguards for Code F visual approaches is 115 m.
Therefore, the minimum separation between the main instrument approach runway and the parallel
taxiway / reserve runway would be 190 m and the minimum separation between the reserve visual
approach runway and the next parallel taxiway would be 115 m. If the second runway were used for
non-precision approaches, no change in the minimum runway to runway separation is required.
If the main runway is closed, then we must consider what activity could take place on that runway
while flying operations take place on the reserve runway. This is influenced by the runway strip
width, which extends 75 m each side of its centreline for a visual approach runway and 150 m each
side for an instrument approach runway. Permitted heights of objects are then determined by the
transitional surface that extends upwards and outwards each side of the runway strip at a slope of
1 in 7. For the purpose of this study, we assume that both parallel runways and any parallel taxiways
are at the same level when measured across the airfield and thus have the same longitudinal fall.
With a main runway to reserve runway separation of 190 m, the main runway centreline would be
115 m from the edge of the reserve visual runway strip, which would limit the height of any object on
the closed main runway to 16.4 m at its centreline and 13.2 m at the nearest runway edge. We
consider this adequate for most likely purposes, although the tail fin of a B747 stopped on that runway
would be 19.4 m high. However, if the second runway were used for non-precision approaches, the
main runway centreline would be only 40m from the edge of the reserve instrument runway strip,
which would limit the height of any object on the closed main runway to 5.7 m at its centreline and
just 2.4 m at the nearest runway edge. This would be inadequate to permit runway maintenance or
aircraft recovery work.
A separation of 210 m improves the instrument runway clearance heights to 8.5 m at the centreline and
5.3 m at the nearest edge, which may still be considered limiting for recovery work, but probably
sufficient for most runway maintenance equipment.
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State work

  • 1. 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 22AA Ladoke Akintola Street Ikeja GRA Lagos State Anambra State Airport Final Report December 2008 Mott MacDonald St Anne House 20-26 Wellesley Road Croydon Surrey CR9 2UL UK Tel : 44 (0)20 8774 2000 Fax : 44 (0)20 8681 5706
  • 2. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited i247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/i of i Anambra State Airport Final Report Issue and Revision Record Rev Date Originator Checker Approver Description 1 12/11/08 CJC, EK, PH, FK PF, GDR AJG Draft Report for comments 2 23/12/08 GDR, PH, CJC, AT GDR, PH GDR Final This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authority of Mott MacDonald being obtained. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of this document being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm his agreement to indemnify Mott MacDonald for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for this document to any party other than the person by whom it was commissioned. To the extent that this report is based on information supplied by other parties, Mott MacDonald accepts no liability for any loss or damage suffered by the client, whether contractual or tortious, stemming from any conclusions based on data supplied by parties other than Mott MacDonald and used by Mott MacDonald in preparing this report.
  • 3. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ List of Contents Page Chapters and Appendices 1 Introduction 1-1 2 Traffic Forecasting 2-1 2.1 Background 2-1 2.1.1 Location 2-1 2.2 Stakeholder Objectives 2-2 2.3 Anambra State 2-3 2.3.1 Population 2-3 2.3.2 Anambra Trade 2-4 2.3.3 Economy 2-4 2.3.4 Nigerian Trade 2-6 2.4 Air Traffic in Nigeria 2-8 2.4.1 Propensity to fly 2-10 2.4.2 Industry Forecasts 2-11 2.4.3 Airlines of Nigeria 2-12 2.5 Benchmarking 2-14 2.5.1 Neighbouring Airports 2-14 2.6 Air Traffic Demand Forecasts 2-16 2.6.1 Transport of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel 2-16 2.6.2 Scheduled Business and Leisure traffic demand – Mott MacDonald assumptions 2-17 2.6.3 Transport of Government personnel 2-20 2.6.4 Air Cargo Traffic Demand 2-20 2.6.5 Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22 2.7 Peak hour movements 2-23 2.8 Conclusions 2-24 3 Master Plan 3-1 3.1 Master Plan Assumptions 3-1 3.1.1 Preliminary Airfield Design Assumptions 3-1 3.2 Airfield Design 3-2 3.2.1 Wind Analysis 3-2 3.2.2 Topography 3-3 3.2.3 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces 3-3 3.2.4 Runway Alignment 3-4 3.2.5 Navigational Aids 3-12 3.2.6 Design Aircraft 3-14 3.2.7 Runway Length 3-14 3.2.8 Runway Width and Other Parameters 3-15 3.2.9 Runway Configuration 3-15 3.2.10 Taxiways 3-17
  • 4. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 3.3 Code F Runway and Taxiway Widths 3-17 3.4 Apron Design 3-18 3.4.1 Passenger Apron and Terminal Configuration Options 3-24 3.4.2 Cargo Apron 3-34 3.4.3 Helicopter Apron 3-34 3.5 Ancillary Support Facilities 3-36 3.5.1 Fire Station, Air Traffic Control Tower and Operations Zone 3-36 3.5.2 Aircraft Maintenance Area 3-37 3.5.3 Airfield Boundary 3-38 3.5.4 Car Parking 3-39 3.5.5 Fuel Farm 3-40 3.6 Refuelling Stands 3-41 3.7 Flight Catering 3-41 3.8 Flight Crew Facilities 3-41 3.9 Drainage 3-42 3.10 Apron Area and Airport Facilities Overview 3-44 3.11 Phasing of the Airfield and Airport Facilities 3-45 3.11.1 Phase 1 - Minimum requirement for an operational airfield 3-45 3.11.2 Phase 2 - Minimum Requirement for a Domestic Airport , Meeting Security and Civil Aviation Requirements 3-47 3.11.3 Phase 4 - International Airport meeting international standards 3-51 3.12 Passenger Terminal Building Design 3-53 4 Environmental Review 4-1 4.1 Introduction 4-1 4.2 General Comments 4-1 4.2.1 Chapter 1 - Introduction 4-1 4.2.2 Chapter 2 – Project Justification 4-2 4.2.3 Chapter 3 – Project Description 4-2 4.2.4 Chapter 4 – Existing Environment Description 4-3 4.2.5 Chapter 5 – Associated and Potential Impact Assessment 4-4 4.2.6 Chapter 6 – Impacts and Mitigation Measures 4-5 4.2.7 Chapter 7 – Environmental Management Plan 4-6 4.2.8 Chapter 8 – Conclusions 4-6 4.3 Summary 4-6 5 Procurement Options 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Key Project Interfaces 5-1 5.3 Project Requirements 5-3 5.4 Methods of Procurement 5-4 5.5 Recommended Methods of Procurement 5-5 5.5.1 Traditional Procurement for Enabling Works 5-6 5.5.2 Design & Build Turnkey for Main Development Works 5-6 5.6 Project Organisation 5-8
  • 5. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 5.7 Project Execution Process 5-10 5.8 Conclusions & Recommendations 5-1 6 Investment Appraisal 6-2 6.1 Currency Conversion 6-2 6.2 Benchmarking Analysis 6-2 6.2.1 West African Zone Countries 6-2 6.2.2 Anambra State Assumptions 6-3 6.2.3 ACI Worldwide Annual Traffic Reports 6-3 6.2.4 Benchmark Airports 6-3 6.2.5 Airport Revenues 6-3 6.2.6 Revenues per Passenger 6-4 6.3 Freetown-Lungi Airport Revenues 6-4 6.3.1 Freetown-Lungi Airport Aviation Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-4 6.3.2 Freetown-Lungi Airport Non-Aviation Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-4 6.3.3 Freetown-Lungi Airport Total Revenues (million SLL’s) 6-5 6.4 Burkina Faso Airport Revenues 6-5 6.4.1 Burkina Faso Airport Aviation Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-5 6.4.2 Burkina Faso Airport Non-Aviation Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-6 6.4.3 Burkina Faso Airport Total Revenues (million CFA’s) 6-6 6.5 Summary Revenues 6-6 6.6 Nigerian Cargo Revenues 6-7 6.7 Methodology for Calculating Revenues 6-7 6.8 Operating Expenditure (Opex) 6-7 6.8.1 Labour Opex 6-7 6.8.2 Non-Labour Opex 6-8 6.8.3 Methodology for Calculating Estimated Opex 6-8 6.9 Capex Phasing 6-8 6.10 High Level Financial Model 6-9 6.10.1 Net Present Value 6-11 Appendix A Architectural Renderings of the Terminal A-1 Appendix B 15 Km Radius Topographic Map B-1 Appendix C Capital Cost Estimates C-1 C.1 COST ESTIMATE C-1 C.2 BASIS OF ESTIMATE C-1 C.3 PRICE DATUM OF ESTIMATE C-1 C.4 ESTIMATE OF COST C-2 C.5 EXCLUSIONS FROM ESTIMATE C-2 C.6 RISK/CONTINGENCY C-3 Appendix D Capital Cost Elements D-1
  • 6. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 2.1: The State of Anambra in the context of Nigeria................................................................2-1 Figure 2.2: Anambra State’s proximity to major Nigerian cities .........................................................2-2 Figure 2.3: Districts of Anambra State.................................................................................................2-3 Figure 2.4: Nigeria GDP annual growth rates 1990-2006....................................................................2-6 Figure 2.5: Nigerian GDP by industry sector, 2007.............................................................................2-7 Figure 2.6: Nigerian Exports by commodity, 1st Qtr 2008...................................................................2-7 Figure 2.7: Nigerian Imports by commodity, 1st Qtr 2008...................................................................2-8 Figure 2.8: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports ..............................................................2-9 Figure 2.9: GDP per capita vs Propensity to fly.................................................................................2-11 Figure 3.10: Wind direction and wind speed diagrams........................................................................3-2 Figure 3.11: Frequency of wind speed in proposed location................................................................3-3 Figure 3.12: Land Potentially Available Outside Current OPR Land Ownership Boundary...............3-8 Figure 3.13: Overview of Runway Alignment Options .......................................................................3-9 Figure 3.14: Preferred Alignment Option 7 .......................................................................................3-10 Figure 3.15: Option 7 in Relation to the Wind Rose..........................................................................3-11 Figure 3.16: PAPI System Next to a Runway....................................................................................3-12 Figure 3.17: ILS Localiser Antenna...................................................................................................3-12 Figure 3.18: ILS Glide Path Antenna.................................................................................................3-13 Figure 3.19: Single Runway with Reserve Runway..........................................................................3-16 Figure 3.20: Airfield Layout...............................................................................................................3-19 Figure 3.21: New Airfield Lay-Out Option........................................................................................3-23 Figure 3.22: Examples of a Temporary Terminal Building ...............................................................3-24 Figure 3.23: E MARS Stand Diagram................................................................................................3-26 Figure 3.24: Cargo Apron ..................................................................................................................3-34 Figure 3.25: Helicopter Apron ...........................................................................................................3-35 Figure 3.26: Example of a Helicopter Parking Space ........................................................................3-35 Figure 3.27: Fire Station and Air Traffic Control Tower Area ..........................................................3-37 Figure 3.28: Integrated Fire Station and Air Traffic Control Tower at Southampton Airport, UK ...3-37 Figure 3.29: Maintenance Area..........................................................................................................3-38 Figure 3.30: Examples of Security Fences.........................................................................................3-39 Figure 3.31: Car Parking Area ...........................................................................................................3-39 Figure 3.32: Fuel Farm.......................................................................................................................3-40 Figure 3.33: Example of Fuel Farm Structure....................................................................................3-40 Figure 3.34: Balancing Ponds ............................................................................................................3-43 Figure 3.35: Balancing Pond at Auckland Airport, NZ......................................................................3-43 Figure 3.36: Anambra Airport Apron Area........................................................................................3-44 Figure 3.37: Phase 1 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-46 Figure 3.38: Phase 2 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-48 Figure 3.39: Phase 3 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-50 Figure 3.40: Phase 4 Airfield Layout .................................................................................................3-52 Figure 3.41: Ground Floor Indicative Plan.........................................................................................3-55 Figure 3.42: Upper Floor Indicative Plan...........................................................................................3-56 Figure 3.43: APV (Bus) Gates ...........................................................................................................3-58 Figure 3.44: Double Spans over Baggage Sort Hall Roads................................................................3-60 Figure 3.45: Fixed Link......................................................................................................................3-61 Figure 3.46: Upper Floor Departure Lounges....................................................................................3-62 Figure 3.47: Check-In and Baggage Sort Hall ...................................................................................3-64 Figure 3.48: Security..........................................................................................................................3-65 Figure 3.49: International Arrivals Immigration and Customs ..........................................................3-67 Figure 3.50: CIP/VIP Check-In..........................................................................................................3-68 Figure 5.1: Project Organisation...........................................................................................................5-9 Figure 5.1: Project Execution Process................................................................................................5-11
  • 7. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/ P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.1: Population of Anambra State by District 2-4 Table 2.2: Nigerian GDP by State 2-5 Table 2.3: Derived GDP per capita figures 2-5 Table 2.4: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports 2-9 Table 2.5: Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports, 2007 2-10 Table 2.6: Airbus Forecast of Africa Sub-Sahara Market Growth Rates 2-12 Table 2.7: Airlines of Nigeria – fleet summary 2-13 Table 2.8: Neighbouring airport traffic figures, 2007 2-14 Table 2.9: Port Harcourt scheduled route network 2-15 Table 2.10: Oil and Gas Facilities personnel demand forecast 2-16 Table 2.11: Scheduled Traffic Demand Forecast 2-18 Table 2.12: Orient – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast 2-21 Table 2.13: Mott MacDonald – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22 Table 2.14: Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast 2-22 Table 3.15: DME/DVOR Array 3-13 Table 3.16: Assumptions made for terminal facilities requirements 3-53 Table 3.17: Facilities requirements for terminal building 3-54 Table 3.18: Space requirements derived from IATA’s space standards for individuals 3-54 Table 5.1: Comparison of Main Procurement Options 5-5 Table 5.1: Key Features of Design & Build Turnkey Procurement 5-6 Table 5.2: Advantages and Disadvantages of Design & Build Turnkey 5-8 Table C.1: Phased Capital Costs C-2
  • 8. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 1-1 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/1-1 of 1 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 1 Introduction Mott MacDonald (MM), in collaboration with Aircraft Support International (Nigeria) (ASI), was commissioned to carry out a study by Orient Petroleum Resources Plc (OPR) into the development of a new airport in Anambra State, Nigeria. Throughout the study ASI supported MM in providing advice on aviation practices and procedures within Nigeria, whilst MM provided the technical advice. The report is divided into sections to reflect the main areas from the scope of works and the additional information requested as the project progressed. Chapter 2 discusses the findings from the traffic forecasting team and chapter 3 details the Master Plan. This section also includes a 3-D drawing of the front of the terminal building. A review of the Environmental Impact Assessment for the site is given in chapter 4 and an analysis on procurement options is given in Chapter 5. Finally Chapter 6 gives a conclusion to the study as a whole. A cost plan and an analysis of the investment appraisal will be detailed in a separate report to be submitted after this. This report is based on data and information given to us by ASI and OPR, as well as the assumptions and methodology detailed in the Scoping Report, submitted to ASI on the 25th September 2008. This report encompasses the comments made by both parties on the Scoping Report. It also has been subject to an internal peer review at Mott MacDonald prior to issue and several points have arisen which have resulted in some changes to the proposed airfield layout and that of the passenger terminal. We have incorporated many of these prior to issue, but have not been able to incorporate them all. As the timing of this issue has been determined in order to be available for a pre- arranged meeting with the client, we have not delayed this issue. Consequently a further revision and issue will be made.
  • 9. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-1 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-1 of 1 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 2 Traffic Forecasting 2.1 Background This section is intended to outline the future demand for air transport movements, passenger and cargo traffic throughput at the proposed new airport in Anambra State, southeast Nigeria. Currently, no airfield serves Anambra State. Orient Petroleum Services plc wants to construct an airfield in parallel with a new Oil Refinery to serve its needs, primarily, but also for it to stimulate trade, business, inward investment and to promote tourism in Anambra. This section initially provides a background on the socio-economic environment in Nigeria and Anambra State, looking at the structure of the economy, demographics, trade and the current propensity to fly for the Nigerian population. An air traffic forecast for passengers, ATMs and cargo has been produced and the assumptions detailed in this section. A Base Case has been prepared which will constitute a ‘normal growth’ scenario, as well as a Low and High Case forecast based on lower and higher growth scenarios, respectively. 2.1.1 Location Figure 2.1: The State of Anambra in the context of Nigeria
  • 10. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-2 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-2 of 2 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Located in South-East Nigeria, Anambra State is bounded by Delta State to the west, Imo State to the south, Enugu State to the east and Kogi State to the north. Figure 2.2: Anambra State’s proximity to major Nigerian cities The proposed new airport is nearly 400km from the Nigerian commercial centre, Lagos. Existing surface transport links are under-developed and considered unsafe to travel. 2.2 Stakeholder Objectives The key stakeholders of the airport will be Orient Petroleum Services plc and the State Government of Anambra. Orient Petroleum needs the airport to; • Support the construction of the Refinery by using the airport to import major facility components • Support the Oil and gas operations of the company • Effect timely delivery of emergency parts for the Refinery operations • Transport Jet A1 fuel from the Refinery to customers • Safely transport Refinery personnel
  • 11. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-3 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-3 of 3 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ The Government’s objectives for the airport are as follows; • To assist the safe movement of government officials and visitors • To attract inward investment and business opportunities to the State • To facilitate the transportation of the Anambra population There are also associated commercial interests. The airport can be used to; • Serve as a cargo hub to facilitate movement of goods and services • Support the potential industrial growth around the Refinery • Act as a domestic passenger airport for the Anambra population 2.3 Anambra State 2.3.1 Population According to the National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria), Anambra State’s population stood at some 4.2 million in 2005, constituting 3.1% of Nigeria’s total population of over 133 million. Anambra State has one of the highest population densities in Nigeria, estimated at around 1,500 - 2,000 people per square kilometre. Figure 2.3: Districts of Anambra State
  • 12. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-4 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-4 of 4 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.1: Population of Anambra State by District District Population % of total Idemili North 430,783 10.3% Aguata 370,172 8.9% Ihiala 302,158 7.2% Anaocha 285,002 6.8% Nnewi South 233,658 5.6% Ogbaru 221,879 5.3% Idemili South 207,683 5.0% Awka South 189,049 4.5% Orumbra South 187,198 4.5% Orumba North 172,405 4.1% Oyi 168,029 4.0% Anambra West 167,416 4.0% Ayamelum 158,410 3.8% Ekwusigo 158,231 3.8% Nnewi North 157,569 3.8% Anambra East 153,331 3.7% Njikoka 148,465 3.6% Onitsha South 136,662 3.3% Onitsha North 124,942 3.0% Awka North 112,608 2.7% Dunukofia 96,382 2.3% Total 4,182,032 100.0% Source: National Bureau of Statistics, 2006 2.3.2 Anambra Trade Unfortunately there is a lack of data available in the public domain pertaining to trade characteristics of Anambra State. What is known is that Anambra is a net importer of produce, i.e. more imports than exports. The new airport is proposed to be located in close proximity to the town of Onitsha. Onitsha is a market town and port on the Niger River in the west of Anambra State. Onitsha’s industries include tyre re-treading, sawmilling, printing, soft-drink bottling and textiles. Onitsha Market’s most important local exports are palm oil and kernels, but yams, cassava, corn, citrus fruits, palm produce, rice, taro, fish, and beef are also traded in the market. It is assumed that the new airport will be ideally placed to cater for the transportation of imports and export trade generated by the market, where it is economically viable to ship such items by air. 2.3.3 Economy The local economy of Anambra State, in 2007, was ranked 16th out of Nigeria’s 36 states, contributing 2.3% of Nigeria’s GDP.
  • 13. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-5 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-5 of 5 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.2: Nigerian GDP by State Rank State GDP (US$billion) % of total 1 Lagos State 33.7 11.6% 2 Rivers State 21.1 7.2% 3 Delta State 16.7 5.8% 4 Oyo State 16.1 5.5% 5 Imo State 14.2 4.9% 6 Kano State 12.4 4.3% 7 Edo State 11.9 4.1% 8 Akwa Ibom State 11.2 3.8% 9 Ogun State 10.5 3.6% 10 Kaduna State 10.3 3.6% 11 Cross River State 9.3 3.2% 12 Abia State 8.7 3.0% 13 Ondo State 8.4 2.9% 14 Osun State 7.3 2.5% 15 Benue State 6.9 2.4% 16 Anambra State 6.8 2.3% - All Other States 85.5 29.3% Total 291.0 Source: UN Statistics, 2007 When dividing the Anambra State GDP figure (US$6.8bn) by its population (4.2m) we see that the GDP per capita (i.e. the average income per person) is around US$1,600 a year. Compare this figure with that of Anambra’s neighbouring States (Lagos is included for reference); Table 2.3: Derived GDP per capita figures State GDP per capita (US$) Delta 4,300 Lagos 3,900 Imo 3,840 Edo 3,600 Rivers 3,250 Abia 2,500 Anambra 1,600 Kogi 1,500 Enugu 1,000 Source: UN Statistics / ACI; 2007 While the above table suggests Anambra State compares unfavourably with its neighbouring States in terms of local wealth/prosperity, this can be counterbalanced to some extent by the wealth generated by trading at Onitsha market, much of which will be by people who do not reside in Anambra itself but do choose to trade there. Additionally, the development of the oil facilities in the state will undoubtedly raise the overall GDP per head figure for Anambra.
  • 14. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-6 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-6 of 6 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Air traffic at neighbouring airports is examined later in this report, in Section 2.5, but it is worth investigating, here, what we can draw from this analysis. Owerri Airport, in Imo State, achieved a passenger throughput of under 0.5 million in 2007. Benin City Airport, in Edo State, saw under 0.2 million passengers that same year. Port Harcourt Airport, in Rivers State, handled just under 0.3 million passengers. However, the closure of Port Harcourt Airport for repairs for periods of time between August 2006 through to April 2008 and the transfer of services to both Owerri and Calabar in this period will distort figures somewhat. The Nigerian economy has seen erratic growth since 1990, but has experienced strong and solid growth in the last 4-5 years. This robust growth is expected to continue, at least in the short-medium term. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Nigerian GDP to grow at a very healthy 9.0% in 2008 and 8.3% in 2009. Figure 2.4: Nigeria GDP annual growth rates 1990-2006 8.2 4.8 2.9 2.2 0.1 2.5 4.3 2.7 1.9 1.1 5.4 3.1 1.6 10.7 6.1 6.1 5.9 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GDPgrowthrate% Source: UN Statistics, 2007 2.3.4 Nigerian Trade The performance of the Nigerian economy in recent years has benefited both from the high world price of oil and the efficiency gains resulting from economic reforms. The main drivers of growth in the non-oil sector were telecommunications, general commerce, manufacturing, agriculture, and services. Real GDP growth rate averaged 6 per cent during the period 2002-2007. A summary of Nigeria’s GDP by sector in 2007 can be seen below:
  • 15. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-7 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-7 of 7 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 2.5: Nigerian GDP by industry sector, 2007 GDP by Sector in 2007 42.01% 2.31% 4.03% 16.18% 0.30% 3.85% 29.60% 1.72% Agriculture, Oil & Gas Telecommunications/Postal Services Manufacturing Building & Construction Distributive Trade Solid Minerals Finances & Insurances Other Services Source: National Bureau of Statistics Export trade is driven by oil. In the first quarter of 2008, over 95% of total exports (in terms of value) were accounted for by oil and petrol products, as shown below: Figure 2.6: Nigerian Exports by commodity, 1st Qtr 2008 Top Exports in Q1, 2008 Tanned or Crust hides and other dried skins 0.4% Dentifrices 0.4% Sesamum seeds 0.3% Natural gas, liquefied 0.2% Leather 0.2% Cotton 0.2% Other 4.8% Rubber 0.8% Polyethylene 0.9% Cocao Beans, w hole or broken, raw or roasted 1.4% Petrol, Oils, Bituminous Minerals 95.2% Source: National Bureau of Statistics When looking at imports, it is clear that most ‘luxury’ commodities are brought into Nigeria. TV/Radio apparatus accounts for 37% (in terms of value) of all imports in the first quarter of 2008, with the remaining breakdown shown below:
  • 16. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-8 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-8 of 8 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 2.7: Nigerian Imports by commodity, 1st Qtr 2008 Top Imports in Q1, 2008 37% 11% 11% 9% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Radio/TV transmission apparatus Unbleached plain cotton Spelt, common wheat Producer gas or water gas gene Motorcycles (including mopeds) Portland & aluminous cement Pumps for liquids, nes Urea Taps and other valves Unbleached plain cotton weave Source: National Bureau of Statistics 2.4 Air Traffic in Nigeria Air traffic in Nigeria has been increasing fairly strongly over the last 5 years, albeit from a low base. According to the Airports Council International (ACI), terminal passenger throughput at Nigerian airports has been growing at 7.7% per year since 2002, with growth in international passengers outperforming domestic passengers. However, domestic passengers still account for nearly 70% of total throughput in 2007, and this proportion has remained fairly constant, at around 70%, since 2002. Air transport movements (ATMs) increased at a lower rate of 5.2% per annum. We consider this growth to be reasonably in line with what can be expected of a burgeoning air transport industry and developing economy, although there are mitigating factors as to why the Nigerian air transport industry has not been experiencing significantly greater growth; political instability and a volatile environment for visitors are the two main inhibitors to development. As highlighted in section 2.3.3, the robust growth in Nigerian air traffic since 2002 has been mirrored by similarly strong economic growth in that time period. Indeed, economic growth often acts as a catalyst for growth in the aviation industry.
  • 17. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-9 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-9 of 9 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.4: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports AAGR % 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2002-2007 Passengers Intl. 1,688,314 1,664,689 1,933,700 2,124,677 2,310,038 2,776,300 10.5% Dom. 4,432,788 5,308,050 5,805,340 5,897,939 5,680,721 6,113,186 6.6% Total Terminal 6,121,102 6,972,739 7,739,040 8,022,616 7,990,759 8,889,486 7.7% Transit 122,164 96,681 189,168 162,035 207,711 63,646 -12.2% ATMs Total 141,634 171,452 193,082 188,865 181,922 182,783 5.2% Air Cargo (tonnes) 46,541 68,630 76,958 94,717 123,973 138,599 24.4% Source: ASI / ACI. Figure 2.8: Development of Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Passengers(millions) 0 50 100 150 200 250 ATMs(000s) Intl Pax Dom Pax Total Pax ATMs Source: ASI / ACI For local competitor airport, we have sourced data from ASI who obtained this direct from the airports themselves, thus providing the most accurate picture possible. For other airports and the Nigerian market overall, we have also used Airports Council International (ACI) data to fill in any remaining gaps in information. In 2007, the ten Nigerian airports that handled the highest levels of traffic were;
  • 18. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-10 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-10 of 10 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.5: Air Traffic at Nigerian Airports, 2007 City ATMs Passengers Passengers per ATM Cargo (tns) Lagos 79,092 4,450,726 56 130,076 Abuja 38,564 2,198,674 57 3,737 Owerri* 8,063 516,230 64 288 Kano 5,414 381,862 70 2,484 Port Harcourt* 7,824 278,363 36 2,014 Bauchi 14,067 266,260 19 - Warri** 13,680 227,456 17 - Calabar* 6,307 207,542 33 - Enugu 3,893 201,854 52 - Benin 6,435 182,930 28 - Kaduna 2,814 110,029 39 - Source: ASI/ACI *Note that due to closure of Port Harcourt airport for repair/refurbishment during 2007, its figures are lower than would be expected. Conversely Owerri and Calabar saw their figures increase due to some Port Harcourt traffic using these airports as a substitute ** Note: the air traffic data for Warri Airport is for 2006 In terms of passenger throughput, Lagos is by far the most dominant airport in Nigeria, accounting for 50% of total passenger throughput in 2007. Abuja is the second-ranked airport handling 25% of all passengers passing through Nigerian airports. Lagos and Abuja are Nigeria’s commercial and political/administrative capital cities, respectively. Anambra’s neighbouring airports – Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt – handled a combined 16% of Nigeria’s passengers. Indeed, Owerri Airport was the 3rd highest ranked airport in Nigeria in terms of passenger throughput in 2007, but this figure was inflated somewhat by Port Harcourt’s closure, which would otherwise have the 3rd largest passenger throughput in the country. In terms of air cargo, Lagos is even more dominant with a 94% share of total air cargo throughput. This is to be expected as Lagos is, as mentioned, the premier trade and commerce centre in the country. 2.4.1 Propensity to fly Air traffic development in Nigeria has generally been in line with the expectations of a developing nation. It is recognised that a relationship exists between a country’s economic maturity and the development of its air transport industry. As a nation’s economy grows, so does its air transport industry. As is evidenced in the chart below, Nigeria is at the bottom of the growth curve, with a very low GDP per capita and correspondingly low propensity to fly per head of population. As the Nigerian economy grows, it will stimulate growth in air travel as more people will have higher incomes (and more disposable income) and thus greater requirement for air travel for business and leisure purposes.
  • 19. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-11 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-11 of 11 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 2.9: GDP per capita vs Propensity to fly 0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 GDP per Capita ($US) TripsperCapita NorwayIreland USA Australia Spain SwitzerlandUK Canada Germany Japan Brazil Poland China India Source: Mott MacDonald analysis of ACI and World Bank data; 2005 Mature markets Less mature markets Malaysia RomaniaPhilippines Indonesia Hong Kong Singapore NIGERIA The propensity to fly for the Nigerian population is around 0.068 flights per capita, per year. When this figure is applied to Anambra State, the resultant figure for total flights per year for the Anambra population is [4.2m x 0.068 =] 285,600. Currently these flights are accommodated from neighbouring airports such as Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and to a lesser extent Port Harcourt. It is reasonable to suggest that the new Anambra airport will ‘claw back’ a proportion of its ‘lost’ or ‘leaked’ traffic, perhaps as much as 50% (or half). Again, it is feasible to suggest that this would mean that the population of Anambra State could potentially support up to 150,000 passenger movements per year from the new Anambra Airport in the initial years of operation. As a consequence of economic growth, the propensity to fly for Nigerians will increase as the national population prospers. Therefore it is reasonable to make the assumption that although the propensity to fly for the Anambra population will be low in the first few years of the airport’s operation, Anambra State will be able to support an increasing level of air travel as the forecast period progresses. 2.4.2 Industry Forecasts It is worth looking at what Boeing and Airbus, the two dominant manufacturers in the air transport industry, have predicted for the African market. Boeing, in its Current Market Outlook 2008-2027, suggests that future challenges for African nations include modernisation; “Four of the world’s top 20 oil-producing countries are in Africa. Economic growth is forecast at 5.1% (over the next 20 years). Even so, the continent’s limited transportation system is slowing the spread of economic vitality.
  • 20. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-12 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-12 of 12 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Air transportation is a highly effective alternative to ground transportation over difficult terrain. Access to landlocked areas of Africa is limited by a lack of roads and railways. The spread of air transportation will require expansion and modernization of the continent’s airports.” Boeing forecasts that the strongest market for growth in Africa will be Africa-Europe, with passengers growing at 5.4% per annum between 2008 and 2027 to reach 350 million by 2027. The intra-African market is predicted to grow at an average annual rate of 5.6% with passenger numbers reaching 100 million in the same timescale. Airbus, in its Global Market Forecast 2007-2026, actually segments the African market further than Boeing. Although not specific to any country, Airbus makes the distinction between Sub-Saharan, Northern and South Africa. Nigeria falls into the Sub-Saharan category. Airbus forecasts air passenger traffic growth for the following markets: Table 2.6: Airbus Forecast of Africa Sub-Sahara Market Growth Rates Sub market Average Annual Growth Rate % 2007-2026 Africa Sub-Sahara Africa Sub-Sahara 5.6% Africa Sub-Sahara Asia 5.6% Africa Sub-Sahara Australia/New Zealand 5.4% Africa Sub-Sahara Indian Subcontinent 7.2% Africa Sub-Sahara Middle East 8.3% Africa Sub-Sahara North Africa 9.7% Africa Sub-Sahara China 8.0% Africa Sub-Sahara Russia 3.2% Africa Sub-Sahara South Africa 8.3% Africa Sub-Sahara South America 5.5% Africa Sub-Sahara United States of America 5.3% Africa Sub-Sahara Western Europe 4.5% Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2007-2026 The intra-Africa markets (Sub-Sahara to/from Northern and South Africa) are forecast to have the highest growth rates in the next two decades, closely followed by the emerging economies of the Middle East, China and the Indian Subcontinent. Whilst it is cautious not to interpret too much from a ‘blanket’ forecast covering an entire region when attempting to focus on one specific market, i.e. Nigeria, one message is clear; that Nigeria, as an African nation, is forecast to enjoy strong economic growth over the next two decades, on the back of booming tourism and trade activities, increased wealth, all of which will stimulate the development of its air transport industry. 2.4.3 Airlines of Nigeria The main airlines operating passenger services in Nigeria are Virgin Nigeria, Bellview Airlines, Arik Air and Aerocontractors. They all operate modern fleets, with shorthaul, single-aisle Boeing 737 aircraft on domestic Nigerian routes.
  • 21. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-13 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-13 of 13 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ The following is a summary of these airlines’ modern jet aircraft fleets: Table 2.7: Airlines of Nigeria – fleet summary Airlines Aircraft Type Seats No of Aircraft B737-300 128 2 Aerocontractors B737-400 144 2 B737-300 134 2 B737-700 137 6 B777-200 On order 2 B777-300 On order 2 B787-900 On order 3 Arik Air Ltd A340-500 On order 2 B737-200 131 5 Bellview Airlines Limited B767-200 191 2 B737-300 149 5 Virgin Nigeria EMB170/190 On order 10 Source: JP Airline-Fleets International, November 2008 / Airlines As detailed above, we can see that Arik Air has plans to acquire a handful of long range mid-size jets (B777 & B787) and expects to take delivery of 2 A340-500 jets imminently for planned services from Lagos to London and Houston. According to OAG (Official Airlines Guide, October 2008), Virgin Nigeria’s domestic route network is dominated by its Lagos-Abuja route, which currently operates at a frequency of 45 departures per week. Lagos-Port Harcourt route is Virgin Nigeria’s second highest-frequency route with 12 departures per week. Of most interest, however, is the carrier’s service between Lagos and Owerri, one of the neighbouring airports to Anambra. This route is operated at a frequency of 6 departures per week on a 149-seat B737. Likewise, Aerocontractors operate a Lagos-Enugu service at a frequency of 13 departures per week with a 128-seat B737. Arik Air’s most popular route is Lagos-Port Harcourt, with the carrier offering 56 weekly flights between those two cities, as well as offering at least a twice daily service between Lagos and each of Enugu, Benin and Warri. We do not have access to passenger survey data, so the demand for access to Anambra from passengers on the Lagos-Owerri/Enugu services is unknown. It is feasible that a significant proportion of passengers on these two routes originated in, or is destined for, Anambra State.
  • 22. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-14 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-14 of 14 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 2.5 Benchmarking When considering the likely growth of an airport, it is advisable to take into account similar airports in size/nature/profile for the purposes of comparing levels of traffic throughput. In the case of the proposed new Anambra State Airport, it is difficult to draw any comparisons as there is no existing level of traffic. However, what we can do is to look at the profile of Anambra’s neighbouring airports to give an indication of how the local catchment area stimulates the development of air traffic. To this end, the following section looks at the neighbouring airports of Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt. 2.5.1 Neighbouring Airports The Nigerian airports of Owerri, Warri, Enugu, Benin City and to a lesser extent Port Harcourt can be considered as the closest neighbouring airports to the site of the proposed new airport in Anambra State. Owerri is situated 52 miles from Anambra Airport; Enugu, 47 miles; Warri, 82 miles; Benin City, 83 miles, and; Port Harcourt, 83 miles. The following table highlights the traffic at the neighbouring airports: Table 2.8: Neighbouring airport traffic figures, 2007 2007 Airport ATMs Passengers Pax per ATM Cargo (tns) Owerri* 8,063 516,230 64 288 Port Harcourt* 7,824 278,363 35 2,014 Warri** 13,680 227,456 17 - Enugu 3,893 201,084 52 - Benin City 6,435 182,930 28 - Source: ASI/ACI *Note that due to closure of Port Harcourt airport for repair/refurbishment during 2007, its figures are lower than would be expected. Conversely Owerri saw its figures increase due to some Port Harcourt traffic using it as a substitute **Note: the air traffic data for Warri Airport is for 2006 It is immediately noticeable that each airport has a relatively low traffic throughput. Given that these airports have runways in excess of 2,000m long, it is not necessarily the airport and its infrastructure that is ‘holding back’ development of traffic. It is likely to be a combination of factors including a lack of means to travel by air for much of the local population. Also significant will be the history of some instability in the Nigerian aviation market that has seen many carriers start up services only to close down at a later date. However Nigeria does now seem to be witnessing a growth in well-run economically viable carriers operating modern aircraft and with a more cohesive approach to building route networks and this bodes well for future traffic growth in the country. Currently, Enugu only has scheduled passenger services to Lagos from the major Nigerian carriers, operated by Aerocontractors with a B737 at a frequency of 10 departures a week.
  • 23. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-15 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-15 of 15 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Likewise, Owerri only serves Lagos with 6 scheduled departures a week by Virgin Nigeria with a B737. Benin City also has scheduled services to Lagos only. Aerocontractors offer 21 weekly departures from Benin City with a Dash 8-300. Virgin Nigeria operates the Lagos route with an ATR-52 at a frequency of 13 departures a week. The smaller-capacity aircraft on this route reflects the airline’s estimation that frequency is preferable to capacity, and that this route cannot support the utilisation of a larger aircraft. Indeed, Warri Airports’ major route is to Lagos, operated by Aerocontractors with 26 weekly flights. Port Harcourt’s 2007 figures above are not an accurate reflection of the airport, given its closure for reconstruction. Now fully reopened, it has a comparatively wider scheduled route network compared to the other airports; Table 2.9: Port Harcourt scheduled route network Scheduled Route from Port Harcourt: Departures per week Airline operator Aircraft type Abuja 20 Chanchangi Airlines; Aerocontractors B727; B737 Douala (Cameroon) 1 Bellview Airlines B737 Lagos 63 Chanchangi Airlines; Aerocontractors; Bellview Airlines; Virgin Nigeria B727; B737 Paris (France) 4 Air France A319 Source: OAG October 2008 As evidenced above, the Port Harcourt-Lagos route still dominates the scheduled services at Port Harcourt, as does the Lagos route at Owerri, Enugu and Benin City. Lufthansa has been quoted as suggesting that it intends to reintroduce Port Harcourt services to Frankfurt when possible, but this has yet to materialise. Port Harcourt also used to have direct service to London operated by Virgin Atlantic. However upon formation of Virgin Nigeria, the airline took the decision to hub all its Nigerian traffic through Lagos. There is a clear pattern emerging from the analysis of the scheduled route networks from the neighbouring (and thus future competing) airports. Lagos is the core route from regional Nigerian cities. Lagos attracts feeder services to its hub, and from there passengers can access international services.
  • 24. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-16 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-16 of 16 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 2.6 Air Traffic Demand Forecasts Currently, residents of Anambra State must travel further than 100km in an often volatile environment to gain access to an airport. A conventional passenger demand forecast will look at the level of demand for air travel generated by the population within an airport’s catchment area. However, in this case, the local demand for leisure travel is going to be initially very low on account of the fact that air travel is, and will remain for some time in Nigeria, a privilege for a minority, at least until the average wage increases significantly and air fares fall significantly. Although Anambra is home to over 4 million people, the level of leisure traffic demand stimulated by a new airport will be constrained by the relative poverty of the local population. Business traffic demand, however, certainly could be generated with the introduction of routes to the main Nigerian commercial centres such as Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt, especially given the oil facilities and Onitsha Market close to the new airport. For the purposes of this report, we make the distinction between Scheduled traffic and Charter (ad hoc) traffic. 2.6.1 Transport of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel The primary objective of Orient in the development of Anambra Airport is to use it for the safe transportation of the Oil and Gas Facilities personnel to and from the State. The majority of air transport movements generated by transporting Oil and Gas Facilities personnel will be Charter (ad hoc) in nature, but we estimate that around 30% of these air travellers will use the new scheduled services connecting Anambra with Lagos over the course of the forecast period. Taking this into account, the summary table below represents passengers and ATMs that are separate to the scheduled traffic demand forecast, omitting 30% of the total demand from Oil and Gas Facilities personnel from the table below, and absorbing that 30% of passengers into the scheduled forecast in Section 2.6.2. Table 2.10: Oil and Gas Facilities personnel demand forecast 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Passengers 9,408 17,976 24,696 29,400 31,080 31,080 31,080 33,264 ATMs 81 155 213 253 268 268 268 287 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Passengers 33,264 34,104 34,104 36,540 37,380 37,380 37,380 37,380 ATMs 287 294 294 315 322 322 322 322 (i) Assumptions The assumptions feeding into this part of the traffic demand forecast are taken from Orient’s expectations of growth at the Oil and Gas Facilities, and are detailed as follows; • Anambra Airport is expected to commence operations mid-2009 • The Oil and Gas Facilities personnel comprise the following activities;
  • 25. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-17 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-17 of 17 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ o Oil Refinery workers o Upstream exploration and production staff o Gas processing/distribution and power personnel o Supporting infrastructure staff • The aircraft type used to transport personnel will be the B737-300, in Aerocontractors’ configuration of 116 seats. • Strong growth in Oil and Gas activities from Year 1 to Year 3; and steadier growth in the subsequent years. • Workforce will consist of around 30-40% expatriates reliant on air travel to get to work and to get home. • Each of these workers reliant upon air travel will make an estimated 1 return flight per 2 months (i.e. 6 return flights per calendar year). 2.6.2 Scheduled Business and Leisure traffic demand – Mott MacDonald assumptions We have forecast the demand for scheduled business and leisure air traffic at Anambra Airport assuming 2009 as the base year of operations and extending the forecast period out to 2024. (i) General assumptions There are several core overriding assumptions that need to be understood. There are certain socio- economic factors that must be put into context when building up this demand forecast; • Catchment area; although a captive population of over 4 million people reside in Anambra Airport’s proximity, the propensity to fly (or more to the point, the inability to afford air travel) for Nigerians restricts air travel to only the most affluent sections of the population at the present time. • According to available information, the State of Anambra has a comparatively less-wealthy local population than the majority of its surrounding States. Logically, this indicates that Anambra Airport should not attain the levels of traffic throughput of airports in some of the surrounding States (notably Owerri, Benin City and Port Harcourt Airports). • Given the low level of air traffic throughput currently being experienced at Anambra’s neighbouring airports, it is logical that a new airport in Anambra State will achieve similar, if not lower levels of passenger and aircraft movements in an environment of unproven demand. • Government personnel will use scheduled air services at Anambra Airport to travel to/from Anambra State. Where there are no direct air services between Anambra and a local government, personnel will connect via Lagos.
  • 26. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-18 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-18 of 18 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ • Although no evidence has been provided of the proposed Orient Oil Refinery’s economic impact on the local populace, we are prepared to assume that it will have a positive effect on the local economy, allowing greater propensity for air travel to be stimulated over the course of the forecast period. • Onitsha Market should help to stimulate business demand, particularly given that currently traders at the market need to use road transport to access it. A regular air service may prove to be highly attractive to those who can afford it and have the longest travel distances. Table 2.11: Scheduled Traffic Demand Forecast Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Base Case 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Passengers (m) 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.35 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.55 0.60 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 31% 38% 9% 10% 9% 18% 10% ATMs (000s) 1.1 2.2 2.7 4.2 4.4 4.9 5.2 6.4 6.9 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 24% 54% 5% 12% 6% 24% 6% Low Case Passengers (m) 0.06 0.13 0.13 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.24 0.31 0.32 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 4% 53% 5% 2% 13% 29% 4% ATMs (000s) 0.7 1.5 1.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.1 4.0 4.0 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 0% 79% 0% 8% 11% 27% 0% High Case Passengers (m) 0.10 0.20 0.26 0.35 0.46 0.56 0.72 0.84 0.98 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 31% 38% 29% 24% 27% 17% 17% ATMs (000s) 1.1 2.2 2.7 4.2 5.1 6.3 7.7 9.3 10.8 % chg v prev. yr. 100% 24% 54% 23% 24% 21% 20% 17% High: High Case Passengers (m) 1.11 4.44 4.64 4.84 5.06 5.29 5.53 5.78 6.04 % chg v prev. yr. 300% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% ATMs (000s) 12.4 49.5 51.7 54.1 56.5 59.0 61.7 64.5 67.4 % chg v prev. yr. 299% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4% Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AAGR % Base Case 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009-2024 Passengers (m) 0.66 0.72 0.80 0.88 0.96 1.06 1.17 17.9% % chg v prev. yr. 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% ATMs (000s) 7.1 7.7 8.6 9.5 10.3 11.4 12.6 17.7% % chg v prev. yr. 3% 8% 12% 10% 8% 11% 11% Low Case Passengers (m) 0.34 0.38 0.40 0.41 0.44 0.46 0.49 14.7% % chg v prev. yr. 4% 12% 7% 2% 6% 6% 6% ATMs (000s) 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.6 6.6 15.8% % chg v prev. yr. 11% 10% 9% 8% 0% 17% 0% High Case Passengers (m) 1.03 1.07 1.22 1.32 1.41 1.49 1.63 20.6% % chg v prev. yr. 5% 4% 14% 8% 7% 6% 9% ATMs (000s) 11.2 11.2 12.9 14.6 15.0 17.2 17.5 20.3% % chg v prev. yr. 4% 0% 15% 13% 3% 15% 2% High: High Case Passengers (m) 6.31 6.59 6.89 7.20 7.52 7.86 8.21 14.3% % chg v prev. yr. 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% ATMs (000s) 70.4 73.6 76.9 80.3 84.0 87.7 91.7 14.3% % chg v prev. yr. 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% There are several underlying assumptions forming the basis of scheduled traffic as summarised below;
  • 27. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-19 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-19 of 19 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ (ii) Base Case assumptions • Year 1 of operations (half-year figures due to Airport opening mid-year); routes to Lagos and Abuja at frequency of 1 return flight per day (2 airlines on Lagos route); all operations with B737. • Year 3; Kano route introduced at 1 return flight per weekday with B737; • Year 4; Port Harcourt route introduced at 1 return flight per weekday with Dash 8-300; • Frequencies to increase over forecast period; on all routes, frequencies increase incrementally up to 3 daily return flights by Year 16; for Lagos/Abuja routes, increase to twice daily return flights in Year 8; for Kano route, increase to twice daily return in Year 9; for Port Harcourt, increase to twice daily return flight in Year 10. • Passenger Load Factors (PLF %) at 65% on commencement of route – increasing with route maturity and time • Government personnel travelling to/from Anambra State using these scheduled services account for 33% of scheduled passengers in Year 1 (approximately 33,000) and 18% by Year 16 (approx. 211,000). • Key milestones; 0.5 million passengers per annum (mppa) by Year 8; 1.17 mppa by Year 16 • Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 17.9% between Year 1 and 16 (iii) Low Case assumptions Same as Base Case; except – • Only 1 carrier on Lagos route using B737. • Kano route not operated • Key milestones; 0.25 mppa by Year 8; 0.5 mppa by Year 16 • AAGR of 14.7% between Year 1 and 16. (iv) High Case assumptions Same as Base Case; except – • Year 5; Kaduna route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737 • Year 6; Sokoto route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737 • Year 7; Maiduguri route introduced at 1 return flight per day with B737 • Key milestones; 0.5 mppa by Year 6; 1.0 mppa by Year 10; 1.5 mppa by Year 15 • AAGR of 20.6% between Year 1 and 16.
  • 28. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-20 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-20 of 20 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ (v) High: High Case assumptions Orient supplied its own set of demand forecast assumptions for scheduled traffic at Anambra Airport. They are as follows: • Lagos and Abuja domestic routes; 6 return flights per day at opening, increasing to 12 return flights per day in Year 2. • Kaduna, Kano, Jos, Port Harcourt, Warri, Calabar, Maiduguri domestic routes; 2 return flights per day at opening, increasing to 4 return flights per day in Year 2. • Libreville, Dakar, Douala, Abidjan international routes; 2 return flights per day at opening, increasing to 4 return flights per day in Year 2. • All flights using B737-300 (128 seats). • Organic growth applied at 4.5% per annum from Year 2 to end of forecast period. • 70% Passenger Load Factor on all flights. Applying the ‘High: High Case’ assumptions yields a forecast which varies significantly from Mott MacDonald’s assessment of demand at Anambra Airport for scheduled traffic. Essentially, the ‘High: High Case’ forecast implies that Anambra Airport will achieve the level of passenger throughput in Year 2 of its operations that Lagos Airport achieved in 2007 (approximately 4.4 million) after many years of traffic stimulation. Given the current low level of traffic and paucity of scheduled services at the neighbouring airports, we consider Orients’ assumptions to be over-ambitious for a new airport that is in an area with no history of air services, particularly given the traffic levels of other Nigerian Airports, and the somewhat chequered level of service provision across the country in the past. We do however believe that there is the basis for a vibrant and growing traffic base at the airport in the future but it would be optimistic to think that this would arrive very quickly upon opening, especially given the relatively low seat capacity in the Nigerian market, particularly given the population size of the country. While Nigerian carriers will undoubtedly increase the size of their fleets to meet future traffic demands across the country, this has up to now been a slow process. With this in mind we recommend that our somewhat more conservative forecast is adopted reflecting the wider market dynamics of Nigeria. 2.6.3 Transport of Government personnel The new airport will also be used to transport Government personnel to Anambra State. This section of traffic has been absorbed into the demand forecast for scheduled traffic. 2.6.4 Air Cargo Traffic Demand One of the objectives of the airport is to serve as a centre for transporting inbound and outbound cargo to and from the local region. The following assumptions for air cargo traffic throughput at the proposed Anambra Airport have been supplied by Orient Petroleum Resources plc;
  • 29. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-21 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-21 of 21 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ • Anambra Airport will be used to transport ad hoc cargo for the construction and subsequent operation of the Oil Refinery and Facilities. • Markets in Anambra receive about 50 x 40ft containers per day, plus about 100 x 20ft containers per day. • Additionally, Anambra receives more than 200 trailers and trucks with imports per day. • Anambra Airport will receive an estimated 2 cargo flights (inbound) per day at inception and increase to 4 per day in the first six months of operation. Organic growth at 4.5% has been applied in the subsequent years. • There is also a requirement to transport Jet-A1 fuel (product of the Oil Refinery) to other parts of Nigeria. This is estimated to comprise 4 daily outbound flights at inception. • An estimation of potential cargo volume throughput (in tonnes) has been made. Between Years 1 and 8, a figure of 10 tonnes per air cargo movement has been applied; between Years 9 and 16, the figure increases to 15 tonnes per air cargo movement. This yields an average annual growth rate of 14.5% throughout the forecast period. Table 2.12: Orient – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 General Cargo mvts 728 2,912 3,043 3,180 3,323 3,473 3,629 3,792 Jet Fuel mvts 1,456 3,043 3,180 3,323 3,473 3,629 3,792 3,963 Total Cargo mvts 2,184 5,955 6,223 6,503 6,796 7,101 7,421 7,755 Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 21,840 59,550 62,230 65,031 67,957 71,015 74,211 77,550 Year 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 General Cargo mvts 3,963 4,141 4,328 4,522 4,726 4,938 5,161 5,393 Jet Fuel mvts 4,141 4,328 4,522 4,726 4,938 5,161 5,393 5,636 Total Cargo mvts 8,104 8,469 8,850 9,248 9,664 10,099 10,553 11,028 Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 121,560 127,030 132,746 138,720 144,962 151,486 158,302 165,426 Mott MacDonald has assessed the air cargo traffic figures generated by Orient’s assumptions. The resulting air cargo throughput seems exceptionally high when compared to the cargo traffic at Owerri Airport (288 tonnes per year) and Port Harcourt (2,014 tonnes per year). Even Lagos Airport only handles 133,000 tonnes per year. Mott MacDonald has produced its own assessment of forecast demand for air cargo traffic, using the following assumptions; • For general air cargo; 1 return flight per week at inception • For Jet Fuel cargo; 2 return flights per week at inception • Organic growth thereafter at 5% per annum. • Average of 5 tonnes of cargo per movement,
  • 30. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-22 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-22 of 22 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Table 2.13: Mott MacDonald – Air Cargo Traffic Demand Forecast Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 General Cargo mvts 52 104 109 115 120 126 133 139 Jet Fuel mvts 104 208 218 229 241 253 265 279 Total Cargo mvts 156 312 328 344 361 379 398 418 Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 2,340 2,574 2,831 3,115 3,426 3,683 3,959 4,256 Year 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 General Cargo mvts 146 154 161 169 178 187 196 206 Jet Fuel mvts 293 307 323 339 356 374 392 412 Total Cargo mvts 439 461 484 508 534 560 588 618 Estimated Cargo (tonnes) 4,575 4,918 5,164 5,423 5,694 5,978 6,277 6,591 We estimate air cargo throughput to reach 2,340 tonnes in the 1st Year (half-year operation), and to increase to over 6,500 tonnes by the end of the forecast period. This seems reasonable given the level of cargo traffic at neighbouring Port Harcourt Airport, and indeed all other airports other than Lagos in Nigeria. Whilst this figure remains somewhat smaller than the levels seen at Lagos, Nigeria’s primary air cargo hub, the oil facilities and Onitsha Market should enable Anambra Airport to achieve higher levels of cargo throughput than other regional airports in Nigeria. Should cargo levels increase significantly beyond those of the forecasts, the facilities at the airport have been designed with to accommodate substantially more cargo throughput should it be required. 2.6.5 Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast Having provided a segmental breakdown, this section combines each segment’s contribution to passenger and air transport movement throughput at Anambra Airport over the forecast period. The Base Case Scheduled passenger and ATM demand has been added to the passenger and ATM demand derived from the movements of Oil and Gas Facilities personnel. This has then been combined with the air transport movements generated by cargo traffic, yielding the summary figures below. Table 2.14: Total Air Traffic Demand Forecast Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Annual Throughput 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Passengers (m) 0.13 0.26 0.33 0.43 0.47 0.51 0.56 0.65 0.70 ATMs (000s) 1.8 3.5 4.1 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.0 8.3 8.9 Estimated Cargo (000' tonnes) 2,340 2,574 2,831 3,115 3,426 3,683 3,959 4,256 4,575 Pax per ATM 74.8 74.8 79.7 76.1 78.5 77.8 79.7 77.5 79.6 Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AAGR % Annual Throughput 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009-2024 Passengers (m) 0.77 0.85 0.93 1.02 1.11 1.22 1.34 16.7% ATMs (000s) 9.2 9.9 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.2 15.6 15.7% Estimated Cargo (000' tonnes) 4,918 5,164 5,423 5,694 5,978 6,277 6,591 7.1% Pax per ATM 83.8 85.1 84.5 84.5 85.8 85.7 85.7 Key points of the forecast: • Annual passenger throughput in Year 1 (half-year operation) is expected to reach 0.13 million; 0.5 million in Year 6; 1.0 million in Year 13.
  • 31. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-23 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-23 of 23 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ • Annual ATMs in Year 1 are expected to reach 1,800; 7,000 in Year 7; 15,600 in Year 16. • Passenger throughput is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 16.7%; ATMs to grow at 15.7%. • The average number of passengers per ATM will remain around the 75-85 mark, on account of the predominant use of B737s on passenger services. • Air cargo throughput to increase at 7.1% AAGR, from 2,340 tonnes in Year 1 to 6,591 tonnes in Year 16. 2.7 Peak hour movements While annual traffic levels are important from an investment and profitability point of view, these do not have a substantial bearing on the design of airport facilities. It is Peak hour forecasts that determine the required size of airport facilities. Given the likely traffic profile of the airport, with a high degree of usage for business purposes (oil, regional government, market trading), we would expect to see the airport to have a marked peak period during the weekday mornings and late afternoon / early evenings, as scheduled flights to key destinations arrive and depart, with the rest of the day being relatively quiet by comparison. As the market grows we would then expect to see traffic start to grow in the non-peak periods, (such as around the middle of the day) as airlines add frequency to existing routes, particularly if airlines decide to base aircraft at the airport. This is a common profile for an airport with a high proportion of business usage and Anambra Airport should be no different in this respect. However, a high degree of charter flights could see the airport maintain a reasonable level of movements throughout the day, although exactly when charter flights might arrive and depart is impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy at this stage. Freight aircraft tend to arrive and depart during periods that would normally be considered off-peak for passenger operations. Within three years of the airport opening we would expect to see a peak period of four scheduled passenger aircraft in an hour, most likely comprising of two flights to or from Lagos (by competing airlines), one to/from Abuja and one other destination. These services would be operated by aircraft up to Boeing 737 (of various types) size or similar. Given continued growth of the Nigerian air transport market it would be prudent to design around peak hour operations of Boeing 737-800 or Airbus A320 model aircraft (with all-economy seating of up to 189 passengers but more likely to operate in a 2 class configuration on a lower seating figure) as these will undoubtedly enter the Nigerian market at some stage in the future. Should airlines decide to base aircraft at Anambra Airport to operate scheduled flights, then the peak periods will become pronounced in a series of waves across the day, as the aircraft leaves in the early morning peak, arrives back later with a return flight, then departs again and so on throughout the day. However even with based aircraft, the peak hour traffic level should not rise too greatly, as it enables more of the flights to spread out across the day at the airport, rather than condenses movements into one short period. The impact of the peak hour operations on the airport design will be discussed in more detail later in the report.
  • 32. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 2-24 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/2-24 of 24 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 2.8 Conclusions From the analysis of the current state of the Nigerian air transport industry and of the Nigerian and Anambran economy, it has been essential to reflect what has been happening and is likely to happen in the future within the demand forecast for air traffic at Anambra Airport. In this sense, it is worthwhile reiterating the following points; • The Nigerian economy is expected to experience robust and continued growth in the next two decades; • This will inevitably increase the Nigerian population’s propensity for air travel. • The Anambra Airport catchment area of approximately 4.2 million people can stimulate demand for air services at the new airport, but only to a certain degree – the vast majority of the local population will be prohibited from air travel because of price. • The airport will see traffic generated from a number of different sources (oil, governmental, Onitsha market, visiting friends and relatives etc). This diversity of traffic will mean the airport avoids over-reliance on one type of traffic and therefore provides a more stable platform for long term growth. • Neighbouring airports currently have a low level of air traffic activity. This has a bearing on how much air traffic we can reasonably expect Anambra Airport to achieve. The largest of the neighbouring airports – Owerri – only handles 0.5 million passengers today, after many years of operation. This suggests that the local demand for air services is currently low at today’s market prices. • The route network of scheduled services from neighbouring airports is still limited. Each of Owerri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt airports effectively acts as ‘feeder airports’ with links to Lagos, enabling domestic passengers to connect on to international services. This is the role we envisage for Anambra Airport. • Mott MacDonald’s calculations for air traffic demand at Anambra Airport assume that the neighbouring airports of Owerri, Enugu, Benin City and Port Harcourt remain operational throughout the forecast period. It may transpire that the introduction of a competing airport in Anambra State culminates in the closure of one or more of the neighbouring airports, or an airline operating there to curtail services and move them to Anambra. This could result in Anambra Airport serving a wider local population, and indeed could become a large regional airport. • Nigerian airlines have yet to reach a level of market maturity with comprehensive, cohesive route networks. This has meant that regional airports are still suffering from somewhat limited flights and routes than would be expected for the local catchment area population size. • While the oil facilities and Onitsha market will provide a basis for freight traffic at Anambra Airport, this has to be tempered in line with the reality that even Lagos Airport, serving Nigeria’s major trade and commerce centre, and its main international gateway and national hub, only manages an annual throughput of around 133,000 tonnes. Freight traffic elsewhere in Nigeria is still only on a small scale and we do not foresee regional airports generating high levels of freight traffic in the forecast horizon – particularly given the very low usage of dedicated freight aircraft by Nigerian airlines.
  • 33. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-1 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-1 of 1 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 3 Master Plan 3.1 Master Plan Assumptions This chapter describes the principal Master Plan facilities. In developing a Master Plan for the new Anambra State Airport there are several factors that have been taken into account. The main elements to be considered are: • Topography in the immediate vicinity of the airport • Local development • Meteorology of the area, including reference temperatures • Primary proposed use of the airport, including planned design aircraft Each of these factors must be considered so as to obtain the optimum placement and orientation of the runway, as well as the dimensional requirements of the runway and associated airport infrastructure. 3.1.1 Preliminary Airfield Design Assumptions In developing the preliminary airfield design the following assumptions have been made. • The airport is to cater for aircraft in the Code E category, with the design aircraft being the Boeing 747-400. • The airport is to provide a 24 hour operational capability, to cater for delivery of crucial oil refinery equipment • The airport should have the capability to serve Code F cargo aircraft in the future, should they be required for delivery of oil refinery equipment. Critical spatial dimensions will be to ICAO Code F SARPS, but it is not intended to provide ant facilities sized for Code F aircraft in the initial phases • The aerodrome site is relatively flat and of a suitable ground quality to allow development • There are no tall structures or high ground in the immediate vicinity (within 15km of the aerodrome reference point), which could impinge on safe airport operations.
  • 34. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-2 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-2 of 2 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 3.2 Airfield Design 3.2.1 Wind Analysis Wind rose data has been received from Orient Petroleum Resources Plc, which was issued to them by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, detailing its strength and direction at the location of the proposed site. It is stated within Annex 14 that the number and orientation of runways at an aerodrome should be such that the usability factor of the aerodrome is not less than 95% for the aeroplanes that the aerodrome is intended to serve. It is also stated that in the calculation of the above it should also be assumed that landing or take-off of aeroplanes is, in normal circumstances, precluded when the cross-wind component exceeds: • 37 km/h (20kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is 1,500m or over. • 24 km/h (13kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is 1,200m or over. • 19 km/h (10kt) in the case of aeroplanes whose reference field length is below 1,200m. The wind data received from Orient Petroleum Resources Plc included the diagrams given in Figure 3.10. Figure 3.10: Wind direction and wind speed diagrams This diagram is in the form of a wind rose and illustrates both the direction and speed of the wind over an undefined period. It is not possible to determine from the diagrams a consistent cross-tabulation of wind direction and speed by frequency, which is required for the calculation of runway usability. However, the following diagram (figure 3.11) suggests that on over 95% of occasions the wind is below 10 m/s, which equates to 36 km/h or 18.52 knots. This suggests that the runway will be sufficiently usable for all operations with a reference field length of greater than 1,500m, which approximately equates to some aircraft of Code 3C and to all aircraft of Code 3D, and Code 4.
  • 35. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-3 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-3 of 3 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 3.11: Frequency of wind speed in proposed location Runway usability for operations of Aircraft Codes less than 3C is not discernable from Figures 3.10 and 3.11, although it is noted that the prevailing wind is from the west but with the strongest winds from the north-east. The frequency of the Wind Speed diagram is not given and the diagram cannot be fully interpreted. Provisionally, it is suggested that an east-west alignment is optimal based on the wind data provided. 3.2.2 Topography We have based our airfield siting and runway alignment within the Orient Petroleum site boundary, and the land around the current land ownership boundary available for purchase to OPR, on the basis of the 15km radius map provided by Orient Petroleum Resources, replicated in appendix B. 3.2.3 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces The runway location and alignment has been established through the analysis of wind data and the initial assessment of the topography. The topographical assessment involved extracting a grid of levels (250m x 250m) from the 15km digital terrain information provided. The result of this analysis for each possible alignment, in conjunction with the wind rose analysis, has led to the development of a preferred option. However, it should be noted that the data provided is only topographical information. Calculations have been made using ground levels, wherefore no allowance for obstacles such as trees, buildings or pylons has been made, which would increase the magnitude of any penetrations. An aerodrome obstacle survey should be conducted in accordance with ICAO Annex 14 as this will enable the full extent of the obstacles to be accurately surveyed and assessed.
  • 36. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-4 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-4 of 4 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 3.2.4 Runway Alignment The alignment of the runways has been assessed using the topographical information and wind rose analysis provided. Four runway alignment options had initially been developed: (i) Alignment Option 1 This alignment exactly follows the East-West wind direction, but the airfield partially lies outside the current OPR land ownership boundary. The land immediately outside the current OPR land boundary is fairly level, therefore any earthworks required would be fairly similar in nature to the earthworks to be performed within the current site.
  • 37. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-5 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-5 of 5 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ However, using land outside of the current OPR land ownership boundaries might have additional environmental impacts that have not previously been considered by the EIA. (ii) Alignment Option 2 The second option is aligned parallel to the South-West to North-East site boundary, but is the least properly aligned with the prevailing wind direction.
  • 38. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-6 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-6 of 6 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ (iii) Alignment Option 3 The third option is a compromise between the best fit within the site boundary and alignment with the prevailing wind direction while taking into account the Obstacle Limitation Surfaces. This option does however significantly reduce the amount of land to the south of the runways that is available for development.
  • 39. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-7 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-7 of 7 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ (iv) Alignment Option 4 Alignment option four combines the best possible fit within the site boundary and alignment with the prevailing wind direction while allowing for a significant area of land within the site boundary to be used for airfield development. This alignment also proved to be a favourable option towards the topographic obstacle limitation surface study. (v) Availability of Additional Land In response to a request from OPR contained in an e-mail dated 20 November, the optimum runway alignment has been reassessed, removing the need for it to be constrained by the current land ownership boundary.
  • 40. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-8 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-8 of 8 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ The image below shows the additional land now potentially available to OPR for the development of Anambra Airport, plus it is understood that further land to the East of the site may also be available: Figure 3.12: Land Potentially Available Outside Current OPR Land Ownership Boundary Taking into consideration the potential availability of additional land, three additional runway alignment options have been developed. Two of these options have been developed for an East-West alignment (Options 5 and 6), which both show a significant number of penetrations, some in excess of 20m, to the critical Approach surfaces and Take-Off & Climb surfaces beyond the Eastern end of the runway. Moving these alignments further beyond the Western site boundary than Option 1 will result in similar issues on the Western side.
  • 41. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-9 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-9 of 9 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 3.13: Overview of Runway Alignment Options With wind direction and speeds not likely to have any significant impact on the alignment of the runway, a third alignment (Option 7) has been developed, effectively being a fine-tuned version of option 4. This alignment attempts to minimise the level of penetrations of the ICAO Annex 14 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces (OLS), is aligned with the direction of the highest prevailing wind speeds and lies wholly within the current OPR site boundary, providing a safe runway with a very high usability level while minimising or even preventing additional land purchase. This runway alignment, as shown below, lies entirely within the site boundary with the exception of the Northern approach lights.
  • 42. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-10 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-10 of 10 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Figure 3.14: Preferred Alignment Option 7 Using the supplied topographic data, we have repeated our analysis of the ICAO Annex 14 Obstacle Limitation Surfaces (OLS) for this runway alignment, which shows a minimal number of penetrations of the OLS surfaces. There are no penetrations of any of the critical Approach and Take-Off & Climb surfaces and only one penetration of the transitional surface of 1.49m, which would be removed during the overall levelling of the site. Option 7 also only has roughly 35% of the number of penetrations of the other non critical OLSs calculated for Option 1, with the highest penetration in Option 7 being roughly 20m lower than the highest penetration in Option 1. Based on the OLS analysis this alignment is preferable to Option 1. It should be borne in mind that all OLS analyses have been calculated using ground levels and do not take into account the additional height of any obstacles such as trees, structures, etc. which would increase the magnitude of any penetrations. (vi) Preferred Alignment On the basis of the wind data currently provided, it is not possible to differentiate between Options 1 and 7 in terms of runway usability, both appear to perform adequately. Additional analysis of the original wind data would be required to determine if there is a difference in performance between either runway alignment.
  • 43. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-11 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-11 of 11 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ Option 7 has the least and lowest penetrations of the OLS surfaces as analysed in accordance with ICAO Annex 14, it also does not require any further land acquisition. It is our assessment, therefore, that on the basis of the available data this is the preferred alignment. Figure 3.15: Option 7 in Relation to the Wind Rose The grid coordinates of this option are as follows: Easting Northing Southern main runway threshold 488790.846 249977.440 Northern main runway threshold 492065.495 251712.692 Southern main taxiway threshold 488889.174 249791.882 Northern main taxiway threshold 492163.823 251527.134 Aerodrome Reference Point 490428.170 250845.066 N EW S
  • 44. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-12 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-12 of 12 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ 3.2.5 Navigational Aids Several different types of navigational aids will be installed at the airfield and land needs to be safeguarded for the different system elements, in accordance with the requirements of ICAO Annex 10. Not all of these may be installed in the first phase. - A Precision Approach Path Indicator (PAPI) system will be installed next to either end of the main runway, located approximately 300m beyond the threshold alongside the touchdown point. Figure 3.16: PAPI System Next to a Runway - The ILS localizer antenna is located at least 310m away from the threshold of the runway it serves, across the extended runway centreline. Figure 3.17: ILS Localiser Antenna
  • 45. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-13 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-13 of 13 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ - The ILS glidepath antenna is also located between the threshold and the touchdown point, offset to one or other side of the runway. In this case it would be on the opposite side to the planned parallel taxiway. Figure 3.18: ILS Glide Path Antenna - The DME beacon is located on the same vertical axis as the ILS glide path antenna - The site of the VOR beacon should be on the highest ground in the vicinity of the airfield in order to obtain the greatest line-of-sight coverage and should be level or should slope away from the station (at a downgrade not exceeding 4 per cent) to a distance of at least 300m and preferably to 600m from the station. The site contours should be circular with respect to the antenna array to a radius of at least 300 m. - The NDB/DME and VOR systems will be provided by the NCAA Table 3.15: DME/DVOR Array
  • 46. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-14 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-14 of 14 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ The array of approach lights to a precision instrument runway is 900m long (measured up to the threshold). A simple array of approach lights (as may be required for the emergency runway) would be 420m long. 3.2.6 Design Aircraft The largest aircraft that is intended to serve is the Boeing B747F (freighter). This is classified by ICAO Annex 14 as Code E (wingspan <65m) and would be used to determine spatial separations, obstacle clearances and indicative pavement constructions (for cost planning purposes). Operations by passenger aircraft of this size category are not envisaged in any of the phases under consideration in this Master Plan. Operations by Code D aircraft (wingspan <52m) would be permissible within all Code E limits. Most domestic and regional air passenger services are undertaken by aircraft with a wingspan of <36m (Code C) and many oil-related air-taxi services by aircraft with a wingspan <24m (Code B). Regular operations by Code F aircraft (wingspan <80m, i.e. up to the Airbus A380), including the Antonov An-124 are not envisaged, although an occasional visit carrying (say) an exceptional cargo load is conceivable. Of itself, such an occasional visit would not warrant designing and building the airfield to Code F standards. However, some of the differences between the required separations and clearances for Code E and Code F aircraft are not substantial. For example, the minimum separation between an instrument runway and its parallel taxiway is 182.5m for Code E and 190m for Code F and the respective taxiway centreline to object clearances are 47.5m and 57.5m. Therefore, planning the position of runways and taxiways to allow for unhindered Code F movements would not increase spatial requirements and costs to a significant extent. It is the provision of wider runways (60m for Code F, compared with 45m for Code E) and to a lesser extent, wider taxiways (25m v 23m) that adds significantly to the construction cost. Therefore it is proposed to plan the airfield with suitable spatial clearances for Code F aircraft, such increases in pavement widths could then be readily added at some later date, and only then, if demand for regular services by Code F aircraft were to develop. For airport planning purposes, helicopters with a single rotor disc of up to 19m diameter (such as the EH101 or Sikorsky Sea King) will be accommodated on at least one helicopter parking position. If other positions are required they may be planned for a 16m diameter rotor disc, which will accommodate the Puma, Sikorsky S76 and smaller rotary-winged aircraft. 3.2.7 Runway Length The length of the runway has been defined based upon the length required to serve the design aircraft, the Boeing 747-400. It is recognised that some of the older Boeing 747 variants may require a slightly longer runway length, but as many of these are being phased out, and to reduce the costs and land take required, the decision was made to use the -400 variant.
  • 47. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-15 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-15 of 15 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ The initial phase in assessing the runway length requirement was performed utilising the Airport Design Manuals related to the B747-400, as published by Boeing. These manuals include aircraft performance graphs which, given a defined take off weight and range requirement, can be used to ascertain a runway length for specific aircraft types. In this case, these graphs were assessed with respect to the aircraft maximum take off weight. The runway length required was found to be 3400m. It should be noted, however, that this runway length is based upon Standard Atmospheric (ISA) conditions at sea level, at a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius, assuming a standard temperature gradient. Such a standard gradient is not observed in this region. At higher altitudes and temperatures, with respect to the Standard Atmosphere, the air density is lower and aircraft must achieve higher speeds before take-off. Hence a longer runway is required. With respect to the Anambra site, its altitude will be close enough to sea level for that effect to be ignored. Its reference temperature has been taken from the dry bulb temperature, provided to us by OPR, which is 39 degrees Celsius. This figure has therefore been used to adjust the runway length on the following basis: The ICAO recommendation is to increase the Runway Length by 0.1% for every degree above ISA temperature. The adjusted runway length is therefore: (Standard Runway length at ISA conditions plus 15 degrees Celsius x (0.01 x 9 deg)) + (Standard Runway length at ISA conditions plus 15 degrees Celsius) = 3706m This runway length has been used within our Master Plan. 3.2.8 Runway Width and Other Parameters A runway of this length will be classified by ICAO as a Code 4E runway The runway width will be 45m with a 7.5m wide shoulder each side. At this stage we assume that the runway will have a constant longitudinal fall from east to west of 0.54% (20m). The runway strip width will be 300m for the main instrument approach runway and need be only 150m for the emergency visual approach runway. The Runway End Safety Zones (RESAs) will be 240m long by 150m wide. 3.2.9 Runway Configuration Options for the runway configuration were discussed in detail in the Scoping Report. It was agreed that the airport would have a main instrument runway capable of 24-hour operations. In addition the spatial planning for a full length parallel taxiway would be to permit that taxiway to also act as a reserve visual runway. This is the configuration with which we have proceeded. However, while there is no intention to provide the reserve runway with an instrument landing system, or any other aids to permit precision approaches to that runway, it would be relatively simple to utilise some of the other navigation aids and/or GPS (once permitted) to undertake non-precision instrument approaches to that runway. We have therefore added a discussion in this revision on the implications of allowing for non-precision instrument approaches to the reserve runway.
  • 48. Anambra State Airport Mott MacDonald Final Report Aircraft Support Nigeria Limited 3-16 247895/01/A - 23 December 2008/3-16 of 16 P:CroydonVOYITA1_PROJECTS247895 New Airport Anambra StateE - Reports & Documents03 Outgoing Record CopiesAnambra State Airport Final Report vC.doc/ As it is intended that the main parallel taxiway can also act as a reserve runway, in all cases, the separation between that and the next taxiway must at least be the relevant runway to taxiway separation and not the taxiway to taxiway separation. Figure 3.19: Single Runway with Reserve Runway In terms of aircraft size, as mentioned above, the airport has been designed to initially cater for Code E aircraft operations, but with the spatial separations and clearances to enable it to be readily upgraded to serve Code F cargo aircraft, should they be required at some time in the future. The minimum runway to taxiway separation that safeguards for Code F instrument approaches is 190 m, whereas the minimum runway to taxiway separation that safeguards for Code F visual approaches is 115 m. Therefore, the minimum separation between the main instrument approach runway and the parallel taxiway / reserve runway would be 190 m and the minimum separation between the reserve visual approach runway and the next parallel taxiway would be 115 m. If the second runway were used for non-precision approaches, no change in the minimum runway to runway separation is required. If the main runway is closed, then we must consider what activity could take place on that runway while flying operations take place on the reserve runway. This is influenced by the runway strip width, which extends 75 m each side of its centreline for a visual approach runway and 150 m each side for an instrument approach runway. Permitted heights of objects are then determined by the transitional surface that extends upwards and outwards each side of the runway strip at a slope of 1 in 7. For the purpose of this study, we assume that both parallel runways and any parallel taxiways are at the same level when measured across the airfield and thus have the same longitudinal fall. With a main runway to reserve runway separation of 190 m, the main runway centreline would be 115 m from the edge of the reserve visual runway strip, which would limit the height of any object on the closed main runway to 16.4 m at its centreline and 13.2 m at the nearest runway edge. We consider this adequate for most likely purposes, although the tail fin of a B747 stopped on that runway would be 19.4 m high. However, if the second runway were used for non-precision approaches, the main runway centreline would be only 40m from the edge of the reserve instrument runway strip, which would limit the height of any object on the closed main runway to 5.7 m at its centreline and just 2.4 m at the nearest runway edge. This would be inadequate to permit runway maintenance or aircraft recovery work. A separation of 210 m improves the instrument runway clearance heights to 8.5 m at the centreline and 5.3 m at the nearest edge, which may still be considered limiting for recovery work, but probably sufficient for most runway maintenance equipment.