Basic Civil Engineering first year Notes- Chapter 4 Building.pptx
-Future Of US Budget-Expected Future
1. federal budget 101 Expected Future: Security Implosion Fiscal + Military + Economic
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6. Source: http://www.cbpp.org/9-12-08bud.htm For the 2002-2011 period tax cuts and increases in security programs account for more than four-fifths of the fiscal deterioration caused by policy actions. Federal Budget One Trillion Dollar Deterioration $ 7.2 Trillion (-) $ 1.0 Trillion (-) Deterioration solely from tax cuts and budget increases in security-related programs $9.4 Trillion $1,256 Billion ($1.3 T.) Total deterioration $3.8 Trillion deficit (-) $546 Billion deficit (-) Sept. 2008 estimate $5.6 Trillion surplus $710 Billion surplus Jan. 2001 projection Cumulative: 2002-11 2009 The Trillion-Dollar Deterioration in the Budget (Based on CBO’s Jan 01 & Sept 08 Budget Projections)
7. Federal Budget annual plan for spending tax revenue ↑↑↑ Spending Increases in military and other security programs account for another 40 % of the $ 1 Trillion deterioration. ↓↓↓ Tax Revenue Deterioration was NOT due to performance of the economy-- tax cuts accounting for 42 % of the $ 1 Trillion deterioration Source: http://www.cbpp.org/9-12-08bud.htm
8. What would One Trillion Dollars buy? This amount would allow us to repair all of our nations 77,000 deteriorated BRIDGES and still have $519 billion to spend. If you spent $750,000 twice each day for 200 years, you’d be halfway to $1,000,000,000,000. ? $700 billion > currently allocated for the U.S. war in Iraq. This amount would allow us to rebuild all of our nations 33,000 deteriorating SCHOOLS and still have $664 billion to spend.
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10. Debt Financing quick fix for budget shortfalls Source: http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt Foreign 26% Federal 52%
11. Debt Financing $652.9 b $585.5 b TOTAL (Oct 08) $ 3042.7 b.
12. Debt Financing America's Overseas Creditors Major foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities. SOURCE: U.S. Treasury | The Washington Post - January 3, 2009
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14. Less Tax Revenue Source: http://www.cbpp.org/pubs/fedbud.htm
15. More Expenditures Source: http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2007/guide.pdf
16. More Interest on Debt Interest Obligation $# % Change $ 12 b. +119 $ 42 b. +250 $169 b. +302 $229 b. +125 $260 b +014 Decade 1959-69 1969-79 1979-89 1989-99 1999-09
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18. How much is too much? What does it all MEAN ? Less tax revenue More Spending More Debt More Interest due More Retirees obligations Persistent deficits
19. federal budget 101 Expected Future: Security Implosion Thank U for Listening! Kay E. Strong, PhD 10 Dec 08 Fiscal IN -Security Economic NON -Growth Military UN -Sustainability
Notas del editor
Total Consumer Debt : $2.6 trillion [Average per every man, woman & child $8500]
Source: David Walker, Comptroller General, GAO-08-604CG (May 08) Major Fiscal Exposures (in trillions) The passage and signing of [Part D: Prescription Drug Benefits] bill increased the implicit exposure of the Federal government by $8.4 trillion, in present value terms (exceeding the liability associated with future Social Security benefits of $6.8 trillion). Source: General Accountability Office. [ Feb. 15, 2008] “ If the President would bother to read his mail, he'd find a letter dated December 17, 2007, from the Government Accountability Office (GAO), that states the following: "Considering (the) projected gap in social insurance, in addition to reported liabilities and other implicit commitments and contingencies that the federal government has pledged to support , the federal government's fiscal exposure totaled approximately $53 trillion..." "This translates into a current burden of about $175,000 per American or approximately $455,000 per American household ." In other words, this is what we owe to future generations .” [Source : http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=2&docID=news-000002672472] Explicit : clearly stated/precisely known, defined~National Debt burden Implicit : not clearly stated/precisely known, but expected~obligations forward into the future
Cost per U.S. Household : Source: “Taxpayers on the hook for $59 trillion” USA Today 5/29/2007 Medicare $255,280 Social Security $144,251 Military benefits $25,863 Federal civil- servant benefits $14,374 Other federal obligations $2,548 State and local debt $17,537 State and local retiree benefits $13,114
Surplus or Deficit Reported on Budget in Economic Report of the President February 2008 <http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html> 2000 $236.2 in billions 2001 $128.2 2002 $-157.8 2003 $-377.6 2004 $-412.7 2005 $-318.3 2006 $-248.2 2007 $-162.0 2008 $-410.0 (est. in 2007) 2009 $-407.4 (est. in 2007) Social Security (in billions) Tax Receipts Disbursements Difference 2000 652.9 409.4 243.5 2001 694.0 433.0 261.0 2002 700.8 456.0 244.8 2003 713.0 474.7 238.3 2004 733.4 495.5 237.9 2005 794.1 523.3 270.8 2006 837.8 548.5 289.3 2007 869.6 586.2 283.4 2008 910.1 615.3 294.8 2009 949.4 649.3 300.1
Total National Debt $ * % = $ # Gross Federal Debt Held by Public (outside Federal Reserve +Federal Intra-governmental Accounts~ Trust Funds) 2000 $5,628.7 3,409.8 (in billions) 2001 $5,769.9 3,319.6 2002 $6,198.4 3,540.4 2003 $6,760.0 3,913.4 2004 $7,354.7 4,295.5 2005 $7,905.3 4,592.2 2006 $8,451.4 4,829.0 2007 $8,950.7 5,035.1 2008 $9,654.4 5,428.6 2009 $10,413.4 5,856.2 TRUST FUND Report <http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/trsummary.html> Assets end 2007 SS $2,023.6 (interest earned $97 billion) DI $214.9 (interest earned $31.2 billion) HI $42.9 (interest earned $16.5 billion) SMI (interest earned $2.2 billion) –NOT a trust fund
Source: <http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt> updated Oct 08 MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES (in billions of dollars) HOLDINGS 1*/ AT END OF PERIOD Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Country 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ China, Mainland: 585.0 541.4 518.7 503.8 506.8 502.0 490.6 486.9 492.6 477.6 458.9 459.1 467.7 Japan: 573.2 586.0 593.4 583.8 578.7 592.2 600.7 586.6 586.9 581.2 590.9 601.7 591.9 United Kingdom: 338.4 308.1 291.5 280.4 272.5 247.8 201.1 181.1 161.9 158.2 174.3 155.0 120.3 Carib Bnkng Ctrs: 185.3 148.9 133.7 122.4 104.7 115.4 107.1 103.0 108.1 116.7 107.4 105.6 99.1 Oil Exporters: 182.2 180.6 173.9 170.4 164.3 153.9 150.8 146.1 140.9 137.9 138.7 141.6 137.1 Brazil: 141.9 146.2 148.4 151.6 151.4 149.5 149.1 146.6 141.7 129.9 121.7 113.9 110.5 Totals, Of which : Foreign Official 1821.7 1785.5 1767.6 1751.7 1743.9 1743.4 1706.6 1681.6 1688.0 1641.1 1619.1 1613.8 1607.7 Treasury Bills 276.8 245.6 232.5 226.6 220.0 215.7 201.3 204.3 207.1 196.3 185.3 180.4 178.3 T-Bonds & Notes 1544.9 1540.0 1535.1 1525.0 1523.9 1527.6 1505.3 1477.3 1480.9 1444.8 1433.8 1433.4 1429.4 Footnote : 1*/ Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data. People’s Bank of China: <http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/> CIA Factbook: <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html#Econ>
Source: <http://www.ustreas.gov/tic/mfh.txt> updated SEP 08 MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES (in billions of dollars) HOLDINGS 1*/ AT END OF PERIOD Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Country 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007 2007 2007 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ China, Mainland: 585.0 541.4 518.7 503.8 506.8 502.0 490.6 486.9 492.6 477.6 458.9 459.1 467.7 Japan: 573.2 586.0 593.4 583.8 578.7 592.2 600.7 586.6 586.9 581.2 590.9 601.7 591.9 United Kingdom: 338.4 308.1 291.5 280.4 272.5 247.8 201.1 181.1 161.9 158.2 174.3 155.0 120.3 Carib Bnkng Ctrs: 185.3 148.9 133.7 122.4 104.7 115.4 107.1 103.0 108.1 116.7 107.4 105.6 99.1 Oil Exporters: 182.2 180.6 173.9 170.4 164.3 153.9 150.8 146.1 140.9 137.9 138.7 141.6 137.1 Brazil: 141.9 146.2 148.4 151.6 151.4 149.5 149.1 146.6 141.7 129.9 121.7 113.9 110.5 Totals, Of which : Foreign Official 1821.7 1785.5 1767.6 1751.7 1743.9 1743.4 1706.6 1681.6 1688.0 1641.1 1619.1 1613.8 1607.7 Treasury Bills 276.8 245.6 232.5 226.6 220.0 215.7 201.3 204.3 207.1 196.3 185.3 180.4 178.3 T-Bonds & Notes 1544.9 1540.0 1535.1 1525.0 1523.9 1527.6 1505.3 1477.3 1480.9 1444.8 1433.8 1433.4 1429.4 Footnote : 1*/ Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes reported under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data. People’s Bank of China: <http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/diaochatongji/> CIA Factbook: <https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html#Econ>
ASSUMES TAX CUTS are EXTENDED! In June 2001 President Bush signed into law the Economic Growth and Tax Reform Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) involving a $1.35 trillion tax cut over ten years. In March 2002 President Bush signed into law the Job Creation and Workers Assistance Act of 2002 (JCWA) reducing taxes for depreciation and capital gains. In May 2003 President Bush signed into law The Jobs and Growth Tax Relief and Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) which included a $350 billion tax cut. In February of 2008 the US Congress approved a $168 billion economic stimulus plan involving tax rebates. Nearly all of the tax cuts enacted since 2001 expire at the end of 2010. In October 2008 the US Congress approved the $ 700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Dating for last downturn: March-Nov 2001 [ Source : http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html ] Between 2004 and 2007, the budget deficit narrowed from $413 billion to $162 billion in large part thanks to rapid growth in tax revenue. This was caused not just by rising incomes, but also by a shift in the distribution of incomes to the wealthy, who pay the highest tax rates. Much of that wealth came from the credit boom which drove up financial profits, salaries and bonuses as well as property and stock values and related capital gains. [ Source : http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=12484798]
% Change is with respect to previous 10 year period
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