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Business model 15.8.17
1. Gursimran Singh & Pankaj Vatsa
GUIDE: DR. SAMIKSHA OJHA
FEASIBILITY REPORT FOR
ELECTRIC BUSES
2. 1
DECLARATION
We solemnly declare that this is the true copy of our work which we developed and finished
over a period of time. We have subsequently followed the rules and regulations regarding
the research ethics and plagiarism policy. We have mentioned and cited the work of other
people, which we thoroughly referenced. We thus, submit our work to the program office at
bridge school of management and look forward to complete our management certificate
successfully.
3. 2
Acknowledgements
We would like to express our immense gratitude towards our institution Bridge School of
Management for coming up with this unique concept of linking education to industry, which
gave us a great platform to expand our scope of learning by interacting with industry leaders
in the form of our faculty. The platform also provided us with the opportunity to learn from
the experiences of our classmates who came from diverse industries and experiences.
We would like to thank Dr. Samiksha, operation team, IT team, and all the staff members of
the institute for supporting us throughout the course.
We are very much thankful and grateful to our Project Guide Dr. Samiksha and our industry
guide Mr. Mr. Paramjit Singh for the guidance and support throughout the project,
providing us help whenever required, giving us timely and valuable feedback and for giving
us his expert advice which helped us in increasing our knowledge.
4. 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter No. Content Page No.
Executive Summary 4
I Introduction 5
2 Market Study 7
3 Industry Analysis 10
4 Technical Analysis 12
5 Plant & Process Study 15
6 Financial Model 17
7 Conclusion
5. 4
Executive Summary
This project report has been developed to explore the feasibility of setting up assembly unit
for electric operated buses along with providing O&M services to state transport
corporations. The project offers the potential to replace diesel/CNG operated buses with
electric buses which are quite environmental friendly.
Public transportation plays a critical role in mobility in any city and it is one of the major
challenge for the rapid urbanization happening in the country. The increased transportation
needs and income levels have resulted in growing number of private vehicles, further
inflated by the influx of migration of rural population to urban towns. With increasing traffic
navigable roads and parking spaces, problems of congestion, air and noise pollution are
achieving critical levels and need to be addressed holistically.
Smart city mission set up by GoI has a clear mandate to provide clean fule based solution for
city transports. Each city selected under smart city mission has taken electric buses as one of
their priority project and already some action is being seen in few cities e.g. Chandigarh,
Pune, Bangalore, Rajkot etc.
Electric buses offer multiple advantages over diesel/CNG buses. They deliver superior
torque-to-power output at low speeds; enable regenerative braking and experience lower
wear and tear due to avoidance of mechanical drive train. Electric buses have zero tail pipe
emissions and 30% lower noise levels. However, electric buses have high capital costs with
67% lower maintenance costs and 61% lower operating costs. Batteries contribute almost
50% of the total capital cost of the bus and also the weight of the bus. Hence customization
of battery sizing can yield significant savings.
We see a large potential in electric vehicle industry and have tried to estimate the financial
viability of such business venture. With the limited time available most of the work is a desk
top study but have taken opinion from relevant Industry experts and couple of bus
manufacturers. We have prepared a project report for assembly unit with production
capacity of 100 buses per annum and O&M services under gross cost model. We envisage an
investment of Rs.450 cr with capital budgeting model of 70:30 debt/equity.
6. 5
Chapter I
Introduction
India comprises the largest road network in the world (3.83 million km) of which 85% carries
passenger traffic. Considering that the connectivity to remote and rural locations is still very
low, there is already significant strain on the current system with problems of congestion and
associated air and noise pollution on the rise and the demand for transport infrastructure and
services rising by around 10% a year. Problem is further compounded by that oil is an import
commodity and magnitude is such that it impacts the overall economy of the nation. There
has been a consistent effort to reduce oil imports and with transport being the main consumer
a viable technology is being explored. Around the world there is a big thrust on electric vehicle
and India is actively looking to adopt this technology.
Recent development in electric mobility, buses have the ability to benefit from rapid
development in propulsion technology, electric energy storage system and charging
infrastructure in order to make cities more livable. This is developed to decrease carbon
foot print and bring down pollution in our cities and make a greener today and tomorrow
for out upcoming generations.
Electric buses will not only reduce carbon foot print it will also decrease the noise pollution,
with smart solutions we can link up the solution and make traveling easy and smart. (Vehicle
Position system)
Electric bus solution will be used for India’s smart city solution and will be at global
benchmark.
INTRODUCTION – TECHNOLOGY UNDERSTANDING
Earlier technology Flash chare transfer system
Current technology Plug in charging. On board battery high capacity
7. 6
KEY ADVANTAGES
Electric bus technology is proven and can meet duty cycles of public transport
Global deployment of electric buses in big number >50000 mid to large buses every
year
Successful trials in Bangalore, Rajkot, Mandi and Delhi
Performance exceeded that of diesel bus in terms of pick up, customer comfort
Gross cost model is most effective and fastest way to scale up using private investment
Incentive of operator aligned with bus performance
Operator gets paid when bus runs as per schedule
Electric vehicles have high capital cost but much lower operating cost
Focus on utilization, maximize daily runs
Support for charging infrastructure can be game changer
Electric bus in deployment at scale is cheaper than diesel or CNG bus
Co-benefits of clean energy and zero noise pollution
Lower operating & maintenance cost
8. 7
Chapter II
Market Analysis
At present the urban transportation in country is dependent on private vehicles and considerable
effort is being done by introduction of metro rails, bus services to bring a tectonic shift. Because with
increasing private vehicles traffic congestion is becoming a norm and the CO2 emissions is rising to
unacceptable levels. By improving the public transport, it is possible to mitigate the negative impact
and it is a general consensus that electric vehicle can be the game changer.
Current state of affairs
The number of registered motor vehicles in India has increased significantly over the past
three decades, from 29.4 million in 1991 to 159.4 million in 2011, and this growth is likely to
continue. Projections show that the passenger travel demand from urban areas will double
by 2021 [1,448 Billion Passenger Kilometers (BPKM)] and triple by 2031 (2,315 BPKM),
relative to 2011 levels (IUT and CSTEP 2014).
• Total registered vehicles in India has increased from 55 million in 2001 to 150 million
+ resulting in:
Congestion
Increase in accident & fatalities
Increase in air pollution
Increase in private vehicle
• Passenger travel demand in urban areas will double by 2021 (1448 BPKM) & triple by
2031 (2315 BPKM)
• Share of private vehicle remaining same, crude oil consumption will double in 2021
& quadruple in 2031
• Current loss to GDP is 1.4% due to air pollution
• Oil import bill 120 billion USD, major impact on inflation
9. 8
The number of buses registered in 2011 was approximately 1.1% of the total number of
registered vehicles, whereas the number of buses per capita was approximately 1,325 per
million people in India. Chart below gives the distribution of total buses registered in India.
Reference government data.
Demand estimation
India is a signatory to Paris climate deal and has taken a mandate to significantly reduce its
carbon footprint by 2030. Niti Aayog is working on a policy for electric vehicles.
Smart city mission is playing a big role in changing the landscape of our cities. It has been
mandated that each city will adopt electric buses and we did a desk top study to estimate
the likely demand for electric buses in India. Data has been taken from vision document of
various smart cities which is available on MoUD website.
1st Round winners – Selection of 20 Smart Cities
2nd Round winners – Selection of 13 Smart Cities
3rd round winners– Selection of 27 Smart Cities
4th round winners – Selection of 30 Smart Cities
Demand estimate Total
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Demand 3000 4000 10000 12000 15000 18000 20000 82000
Our Share 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 700
Assumed 20% growth per annum
The number derived above are fairly conservative. As per the newspaper reports GoI is
targeting to convert all public transport vehicles to electric by 2025 and negotiating loan
with soft bank for procurement of 2.5 lakh buses in the next ten years.
0
1000
2000
3000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
TOTAL BUSES REGISTERED IN INDIA
PUBLIC PRIVATE TOTAL Linear (PUBLIC) Linear (PRIVATE)
10. 9
Govt. Support for Electric Vehicles
To promote the adoption of electric mobility solutions govt. of India has come out with
National Electric Mobility Mission Plan.
Government of India unveiled National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020
to accelerate the growth of the electric and hybrid components of the automotive
sector. It focuses primarily on fast-tracking the manufacturing and introduction of
EVs in India.
The Department of Heavy Industries (DHI) had launched FAME (Faster Adaptation
and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles) in April 2015 to promote
manufacturing of electric and hybrid vehicles in India. As a part of the National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan, FAME has a corpus of about ₹ 8 billion (US$ 123
million) to invest in electric mobility based initiatives. This fund was allocated for
duration of two years and will expire in April 2017. However, an extension is being
requested. DHI is considering all proposals on priority
The scheme is focused on the 4 key areas:
(a) Fiscal and tax eco System to encourage customers to opt for Electric Vehicles
(b) Purchase of Electric or Hybrid Vehicles
(c) Pilot Project for City Buses
(d) Supporting Infrastructure
As per FAME India Guidelines, the funding will be provided to cities covered under
"Smart Cities" initiatives. The funding will be given in the form of Demand Incentive.
The demand incentive shall be available for buyers (end users/consumers) in the
form of an upfront reduced purchase price to enable wider adoption.
Demand incentives
Industry Analysis
11. 10
Chapter III
Industry Analysis
Electric operated vehicle is a nascent industry in India and every organization operates in an
environment that is subject to constant change. SWOT analysis provides an opportunity for
introspection into the industry’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Though
SWOT analysis is subjective but it throws light on important factors that are in support of
the proposed project or that work against it.
We conducted a desk top analysis on the current state of affairs.
Swot Analysis
PESTEL Analysis
12. 11
Competition
Earliest electric vehicle in India was Reva which was being manufactured in Bangalore in
1990’s. However it did not catch the fascination of Indian consumer. But since then lot of
technological changes have happened and electric mobility is the latest fascination of the
World. Every year almost 50000 electric buses are being put on the street around the globe.
Here in India Mahindra Motors has taken lead in producing electric cars. But as far as buses
are concerned they are largely being imported. Model is to manufacture the bus body in
India and import chassis from China with final assembly being done locally.
Electric bus potential has caught eye of some of the Indian manufacturer and Ashok
Leyland, Tata Motors & JBM has started producing 9m & 32m buses here. Ashok Leyland has
launched its electric bus by the name of ‘Circuit’.
We interviewed some of the industry experts and assessed the current capacity of the
manufacturers in India. Our understanding is that there is a large gap between the supply
and expected demand hence an opportunity to enter in this sector.
Manufacturer Capacity/annum
Corona 150
Volvo 200
Ashok Leyland 600 by 2020
Tata Motors 200 (hybrid)
JBM 120
Others* Imported
13. 12
Chapter IV
Technical Analysis
At present there are multiple options available for buses i.e. diesel, CNG, Hybrid & electric.
In order to understand the basic difference in technical specification a comparative study
has been done which is presented below.
The comparison clearly shows that dimensionally and functionality an EV is almost equal to
all other buses, but EV is more efficient in term of cost. A hybrid vehicle is a stage up from
CNG bus but it will also produce CO2. An EV will totally remove CO2 emission and no toxic
gases will be produced. The battery which we will be using can be recycled.
We cannot compare an ICU with EV in term of emission since EV have zero emission. The
few drawback that we have is the initial investment is high and the limit running capacity.
The over whole weight of the vehicle is also more than conventional vehicle.
In very near future with uprising demand the cost of manufacturing will come down
substantially and we will see a turn towards EV.
14. 13
Product offering
We can add many features in EV but we choose to add those keeping current market in
mind. The buses are low floor with similar ground clearance which is current in operations.
The bus is fitted with air suspension which are already tested and in operation in India. Air
suspension enhance the ride experience and make the ride smooth. We are trying to
minimise the charging time and you may see that charging time is 5 hours at optimum
conditions. The bus is 32 seater which is common in India along with standing capacity. The
bus will able to deliver 250 KM per charge after that the bus need a battery replacement or
recharge.
The current battery which will be used lithium ion iron which have been tested in west
markets and no major research is required in this field as battery are very safe. The bus will
have air conditioned and we would like to make bus trackable not only by operator but by
citizen so they may track the bus and minimize waiting time.
Turning is also an important factor since we know that the routes could be very tight at
times, we have given a turning radius of 12 meters which is very similar to current buses on
the road.
Safety is our prime motive the buses will have automatic disk brakes with ABS which
enhance the breaking during wet road or rains. Also we can limit the speed in the vehicle.
The vehicle will have all the personal protective equipment’s and fire safety system. We will
also be providing airbag for the driver.
The brushless motor is very efficient and lasting. It is a maintenance free motor also we are
giving a max torque of 700 Nm which is sufficient and benchmarked against the current
conservative vehicle in the market.
15. 14
We also collected the data on average bus speed in various cities. Objective was to know the
additional charging option because of regenerative braking. It helps in continuously charging
the battery however at added cost Due to low average speed of our buses they could be run
on ECO mode which will further save electricity. Electricity regenerated braking system will
be used so we can generate electricity from baking of the vehicle which again increase the
total efficiency of the vehicle. The total efficiency of the vehicle may also decrease due to
such low speed but regeneration of electricity from braking will help improve the over
whole efficiency of the vehicle. . For the time being we do not propose to have the same in
our buses.
Cost Comparison
Electric bus will is significantly costlier than other buses, most of the cost goes into
controllers, electric drivers, batteries. The running cost of electric bus is less compared to
the all the other fuel type. We get higher efficiency in electric bus compared to any ICE
because the power is directly used to run the bus. In ICU the fuel is burned the piston
movement and we lose a lot of energy in thermal energy etc. We can also use solar grid to
change the batteries which will make the whole process greener. The bus cost will be
expensive compared to CNG fleet that we currently have. EV would be a better option then
HYBRID but HYBRID is our solution for long run whereas EV have a limited KM capacity.
16. 15
Chapter V
Plant & Process Study
Plant Location
Housur is an industrial hub with support from Tamil Nadu government. We see plant of
organizations like Ashok Leyland, Kamatz, and Caterpillar etc. in the industrial hub. We
would be using already established vendors which are supplying to Bus manufacturing
sector. The decision is made to use skilled and semi-skilled man power which will be readily
available at that industrial area due to OEM culture already established. We can see that the
investments which are done in the parts of India.
Process Mapping
We have planned very small set of operational actives in house. Our main win is towards
getting kits and assembling them to make the bus. We would go for a parallel assembly line
which will have chassis and body being assembled together. As we are aware of lean
manufacturing we would be hiring consultant which will help us lean down the process. The
above manufacturing line minimize material movement and then unite chassis and body in
the end for final assembly followed by inspection. The plant will be in 15 acers as built up
area out of total 20 acers, rest is used for further expansions. The plant will have two shift
for having higher efficiency.
The offices will be on the first floor in the same manufacturing building. We will be having
just one assembly line and will be following single line flow for most of the activities.
Most of the assemblies will be outsourced. Motors, drives, batteries and electronic will be
imported from our JV partner. Chassis, tyres, bus body and all other components will be
purchased from existing vendors which are supplying to this sector. This will reduce our
We propose to set up plant near Hosur, Tamil Nadu.
17. 16
input cost substantially and no major cost will be spend for development. Electrical will
come from the leaning manufacturers which are ARAI approved so we don’t have to spend
money on getting approvals.
The plant will be set as per global benchmark will JV partner and consultant consent. Since
the plan is for long run we would like to make this plant as industry benchmark at high
efficiency at low cost.
Basic plant layout
18. 17
Chapter VI
Financial model
Project Schedule
As discussed earlier we propose to have two pronged strategy. Set up an assembly unit and
simultaneously pick up O&M contract for bus operation in any city. While investment will be
done in setting up the assembly unit, O&M contract will generate revenue as well as
learning of operations.
In the schedule below we have defined all the activities along with estimated duration. From
the company formation to the bus production we estimate a time period of 27 months
approx...
Cost Estimate
19. 18
We plan to set up the assembly unit near Hosur and collected the land price from Prop Tiger
web site. Construction cost has been taken from CPWD schedule of rates.
Equipment data was provided by our external guide and for the rest we conducted
interview of industry experts. Cost data for raw material & consumable is not very accurate
as it was difficult to obtain such information. However we have tried our best to triangulate
the information from different sources.
Capex (Manufacturing) Operation Cost
Item Amount in INR (CR)
Land Cost 4.0
Plant construction cost 98.01
Equipment & Testing 166.09
Consultant Fee 10.00
Contingency 20.00
Compliance 20.00
TOTAL 318.1
Capex investment of Rs.318 cr is estimated and working capital of Rs.96 cr in the first year. It
is pertinent to mention here that we have kept a marketing budget of Rs.5 cr because we
are targeting State Transport Corporation for selling our product which is largely tender
based. We have captive market for next 6 to 7 years atleast and expect retail sale to be bare
minimum.
Compliance cost is mandatory because before the bus is brought on road certification is
required. Some of the cost is one time which is for approval of manufacturing unit and part
of it for each bus coming out of the production unit.
EV consultancy firm will be appointed to advice on the process and optimum layout of the
production unit. Further for selection of equipment suiting to the cost effective technology,
their expertise will be used. We had taken quote from a freelance consultant.
Assumptions take for preparing the financial statements are:
1. Depreciation on SLD method @10% per year
2. Cost of debt 10% & equity 12%
3. Tax rate 33%
4. Other income includes sale of spare parts
Item Amount in INR (CR)
Material cost 50.0
Man Power 15.0
Admin Expenses 6.0
Consumable 20.00
Marketing 5.00
TOTAL 96.00
20. 19
P&L statement for plant
Mar '19 Mar '20 Mar '21 Mar '22 Mar '23
1 2 3 4 5
Income
Sales Turnover 120 150 180 180 180
Other Income 1 2 2 2 2
Total Income 121 152 182 182 182
Expenditure
Raw Materials 42 53 63 63 63
Power & Fuel Cost 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3
Employee Cost 15 14 14 13 12
Miscellaneous Expenses 23 23 23 23 23
Total Expenses 81 91 101 100 99
Mar '19 Mar '20 Mar '21 Mar '22 Mar '23
12 moths 12 moths 12 moths 12 moths 12 moths
PBDIT 40.36 60.95 81.04 81.87 82.62
Depreciation 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4
PBIT 11.95 32.54 52.63 53.46 54.21
Interest 26.5 23.9 21.2 18.6 15.9
Profit Before Tax -14.59 8.66 31.40 34.89 38.29
Tax 0 2.6 9.4 10.47 11.5
Reported Net Profit -14.59 6.06 21.98 24.42 26.80
21. 20
Operation & Maintenance Contract
There are different models for private bus contracting e.g. Cost plus, Gross cost, Net cost,
Quality incentives & revenue incentives. State Transport Corporation of different states
have tried different models. However gross cost model has seen the most positive response
and now most of the utilities are aligned toward using this model. MoUD has published a
draft model contract for gross cost for adoption. Main features of gross cost model are:
• Compensation is based on kilometers operated
• Bid parameter is compensation sought for each km of operation as per specified
standards & route
• Easy bid process and contract management
• Limited potential for disputes
• Avoid discrimination against concession fare passengers
• Flexibility in changing fares for STC
• Flexibility in changing schedules based on need
Under the gross cost model both operator & STC have their define obligation and success of
the contract depends on both party adhering to the contract. Broad obligations for
respective party is given below:
Activities to be covered STC Operator
Capital investment, procurement Y
Day to day fleet operation & planning Y
Service & maintenance Y
Driver training & availability Y
Charging infrastructure Y Y
Schedule availability & planning Y
Depot availability Y
Electricity for charging Y
Ticketing & fare collection Y
22. 21
Project Risk
Capital projects are prone to risks and its analysis is an important parameter in project
appraisal. All projects are appraised making certain assumptions. Assumptions in project
appraisal are unavoidable since no two projects are similar. Some of the main assumptions
taken for project appraisal are:
Periodic Cash inflows
Periodic Cash outflows
Life of machinery
Salavage value of machinery
Discount rate
For executing the bus operation and maintenance contract we identified the possible risks
as well as their mitigation option. These risks were used for scenario analysis to calculate
the impact/
Risk Explanation Mitigation
Technology risk BEV not yet tested in
India on mass scale
Warranty from
technology provider
Performance risk Not able to meet the
quality standards
Sign performance
based O&M contract
Market Risk Inflation Additional funding
cost
Commissioning risk Approval delays LD clause in the
contract
Operating risk Day to day operations
get affected
O&M contract
Obligation clause
with STC
Force majeure risk Damage to bus in riots Insurance
Change of law Subsidy may be
stopped
Availability of
power
Regular electricity
availability and
regulatory challenge
Power Ministry
working on reform
23. 22
Financial model for operating Bus O&M
Refer the Annexure I for the financial model of O&M contract. The assumptions and output
is listed below:
Item
Bus in cluster 25 no.
Bus life 10 years
Battery life 3 years
Battery capacity 320Kwh
Total Project Cost 4365 lakh
Bus running per day 220 Km
Gross cost rate 60/km
Interest rate 9.5%
IRR 29%
DSCR 2.3
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Summary
Current Values: Subsidy RoI Efficiency
Changing Cells:
Subsidy 45 0 45 45
RoI 9.50% 9.50% 12.00% 9.50%
Efficiency 85% 85% 85% 60%
Result Cells:
Irr 29% 12% 27% 8%
24. Annexure I
Hard Cost INR (lacs)
Bus chasis 150
Bus body 20
Spares @5% alongwith bus 7.5
GST @18% 27
Total cost 205
Less FAME subsidy 45
Net cost/bus 159.5
No.of bus in cluster 25
Total cluster cost 25 buses 3988
Charging infrastructure 200
20 locations
TOTAL 4188
Soft Cost
Financing cost 1.25% 52
Pre-operative cost 1% 42
Contingency 2% 84
Total soft cost 178
Total Project Cost 4365
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Means of Financing
Drawdown
schedule
Debt 70% 3056 873 2183
Equity 30% 1310 1310
Total 4365
RoI 9.50%
Cost of equity 13.00%
WACC 8.8%
Revenue Assumptions
Gross Cost rate 60 per km
Escalation/annum 8%
Bus Running/day 220 Km
Bus OEE 85%
28. Conclusion
EV industry is on the upswing largely because of environment concerns. Emerging markets
like India get an added benefit by possible reduction in oil import bill. Our assessment is it is
the right time to invest in this industry. With limited competition and assured market good
returns are possible for a decade or so till the new options kick in. Around the world
scientist community is working on bettering the EV technology and cost of production will
only go down. Other advantage being the incentive by GoI through various studies.
Our desk study indicates positive return however lot of detailed analysis is required before
reaching a final conclusion. All our study done in limited time indicates that there is a good
possibility and by all account EV technology is here to stay.