Harry Keys: Tongariro Alpine Crossing

1
Copyright photograph by NZ Herald
Cities on Volcanoes Conference
Yogayakarta, INDONESIA
Paul Dawson
photo
Sustainable Summits 2016, Aoraki Mt Cook
National Park, 7-11 August
Harry Keys (hkeys@doc.govt.nz)
Department of Conservation
DOC-2848662

2
Red Crater 1886 m
Tongariro 1961 m
Emerald Lakes
Blue Lake/
Rangihiroa's Mirror

3
Ngauruhoe last erupted 1974-77
Red Crater last erupted 1934
Te Maari last erupted 2012
Mangatepopo
carpark &
Roadend
To Ketetahi
Roadend
Alpine area subject to
severe weather year
round
3 historically active
volcanic vents
Centre of North island, very
accessible
Visitor use peaks over summer

4
A short history of the Crossing
Left: 1908 tourist group at Emerald Lakes - few people,
no management
Right: Now many people, management important,
moving towards co-management with iwi
2013 opening ceremony after eruptions

5
Estimated numbers on the Crossing
10,000
Spot counts & hut
surveys from 1992
Early 1990s:
international visitors
exceed NZers
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2005 2010 2015
Calendar Year
Counter time series
1992: 11,000 people: 20% of 48,000 total on the19 km track
2015: 109,000: 80% of 140,000 total on the 20 km track
Estimated numbers 1950-2011, Bamford 2014
GFC
eruption
?
Growth can’t continue like this: numbers and/or
experience are likely to decline unless some kind
of new management is introduced and effective

6
Economic benefits
• Large number of people
• Almost 90% stay 1 or 2 nights in local districts
• $200/day spent on accommodation & transport
per TNP summer visitor ($20 million/year)
• Strong growth (9%/year, average compound rate)
• 80-90% use buses & rental vehicles
• 21 transport concessions; 22 guiding concessions
mostly local
• >50 bus and rental car companies used
• Increased number of school/youth visits &
benefits from education

7
• 46% 20-29 years, 22% 30-39;
strong social media use
• International 76% (range 70-
80%, trend appears to have
weakened)
• No reduction in numbers of
NZers
• Domestic (2012): AKL 43%,
Wgtn 12%, South Is 3%
• Gender: even ratio
• Party size: 1 =13%, 2 =46%,
3-4 =24%
• 60% 0-1 hike/year of this type
Demographics etc
Based on 6 visitor surveys
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
International&domesticproportions
Survey year/season
% international
% domestic
Apparent no.
NZ

8
Social and recreational benefits
“strong benefits”, “clear majority satisfied” [similar to
expectations], “huge sense of achievement”
Angus & Assoc 2012, Blaschke & Whitney 2007
Helping meet DOCs 2025 goals:
50% international visitors visit a national park;
90% of New Zealanders enriched by our nature
2012 Q: What did you most enjoy?

10
Visitor concerns
2012 survey question: What did you
least enjoy?
Bubs Smith
photo

11
Main management concerns & issues
1. cost per person (“just need funding”)
 Track work ($3 pp)
 Rescue, SAR & volcanic risk
management – visitor safety ($2 pp)
 Toilets/waste-management ($1.50 pp)
 Road maintenance
 Concession management
2. challenge to solve
 Crowding on track at times &
maintaining satisfaction
 Protecting cultural values & identity
 Transport & car parking
 Effective planning/consultation Top: DOC;
Bottom: Paul Carr

12
Track management/erosion control
standard solutions, some debate
 Vulnerable volcanic soils (trampling &
erosion)
 Restoration, upgrades & track
deviations (up to $250/metre)
 Maintenance $3.50/m (DOC model)
 Limits to upgrade options in mountains
 Alternative tracks, concerns & efficacy

13
Safety & risk management and the
TAC visitor
• Limited understanding of
personal responsibility - “they’d
close the track if it wasn’t safe”
• Most visitors are reasonably
prepared but notable exceptions
• Information available but not
always accessed/received
• Iwi hold a duty of care -
kaitiakitanga
• No trauma fatalities for 5 years
but several near-misses
(hypothermia, slips, rockfall, Aug
2012 eruption)
• Many rescues, well developed
public (free) system Heading to Mt Doom (barefoot like
Frodo!) & about to get lost in cloud.
DOC photo
Babies on the TAC - first baby
rescue 2016. DOC photo

14
• A mass fatality event in TNP will
most likely be due to an
“unheralded” eruption
• Unmitigated: 1 event / 10-19 years
• If mitigation effective: 1 event / 90-
100 yrs
• Good volcanic warning system but
maintaining readiness is a
concern
• Concessionaire contribution?
• Accept that eruptions disrupt
visitor use & commercial activity
Top: Herb Spannagl;
bottom: Cant. Uni
Risk management in active volcanic
areas

15
噴石（奥の院）
Ontake eruption 2014: 58 hikers killed (5 missing) most
of them by flying rocks. Similar eruption to Tongariro
2012, so many lessons (e.g. need for effective
communications & warnings)

16
Toilets
 “Dissatisfaction rates relatively
high” Angus Assoc 2012 (annual
numbers c 85,000)
 Plan to double number of toilet
pans and locations in 2 years &
reduce waste volume. CAPEX
$500,000
 Difficult siting decisions to
minimise impact on scenic,
cultural & aesthetic values
 Personal poo kits practical?
Top: DOC; bottom: Bubs Smith

17
2005: “Integrated use limits” aka “carrying
capacity” identified: exceeded when >550-
600 people-counts/day
2012: number confirmed
≥ 600 counts/day = negative perceptions,
sense of crowding, detracts from
experience
20% of survey days in 2005 had ≥600
counts
34% in 2012 had ≥600
55% in Jan-April 2016 had ≥600
3 days with ≥2000 counts in 2016
≈ 40% of NZ Ranker reviewers now
mention crowding etc
Crowding perceptions
Peak day queue up Red Crater
ridge: at the chain section
requested by concessionaires

18
Over-use/over-crowding needs multi-
facetted solution:
 Staggering of start times often
suggested (since 1990s): it’s
occurring but problem not solved
 Booking or quota system or user-
charge: taxpayer discount
 Transport management (most
visitors use concession transport)
 Concession management – legal
constraints (but less when
environment & safety issues?)
 Planning process-integrity of
Management Plan process, more
focused consultation, other govt
funding
2005
2012

19
Suggested revision of goals
“We have a responsibility to ensure people can enjoy our wild
places while protecting the integrity of the environment” Hon.
Maggie Barry, Minister of Conservation, SS booklet
1. Limit numbers: ensure the world-
class visitor experience is protected
and provides ongoing economic
benefits to tangata whenua and other
local communities
2. Manage transport logistics: work
with concessionaires to ensure their
businesses assist with goal 1
3. Optimise risk management: pay
more heed to the alpine volcanic
environment & visitor responsibility
4. Protect values: cherish Tongariro
National Park World Heritage Area
5. Emphasise TAC’s value: bring
together & unify mountain
communities Top: Bubs Smith; bottom: DOC

20
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Internationalvisitorarrivalsandforecast
VisitorNumbers(basedonrawKetetahicounterdata)
Annual visitor numbers and projections
Annual Ketetahi totals (counter
100073031 corrected for missing
data) for non-eruption episode
years
Annual Ketetahi totals directly
affected by eruption episode
corrected for missing March 2012
data
Synthetic Ketetahi totals during
eruption episode
Ketetahi Model with compound
growth rate of 8.6%
Projected Ketetahi totals with 6%
compound average growth rate
(MBIE forecast to 2020)
International Visitor arrivals (MBIE)
International visitor arrival forecast
(MBIE 2016, with compound
average growth rate of 6%)
Calendar year
Visitornumbers

21
Visitor use peaks in summer- raw
counter data on TAC

22
TAC rescue operations: police-organized
(≈ 70% of total). Average 2x10-4 ops/person

23
Crowding: examined in 1993-96, 2005 & 2012
surveys
2005
2012
2015/16 Bubs Smith photos
• Red Crater area
most crowding
reported
• Ketetahi roadend
largest increase

24
Quote from Blaschke & Whitney 2007
• Currently, transport concessions do not impose any limits on the number of
walkers able to be carried, so that on busy days transport operators have
unlimited discretion to run additional busloads. Comments made during the
focus group discussions identified a number of further issues with the
concession process. Allegations and anecdotal information were provided
concerning conditions of concessions not being adhered to, under-reporting
of numbers of walkers carried, and the presence of non-authorised operators
within the park providing transport services and in some cases guiding
services to significant numbers of walkers.
• DOC’s intention for the concession system is that it “helps the Department to
ensure that the various concession activities are compatible with the primary
aim of protecting the land and other resources. It also helps to make sure
that services and facilities provided for visitors are appropriate, of a suitable
standard and that other activities do not conflict with visitor enjoyment.”
(http://www.doc.govt.nz/About-DOC/Concessions/index.asp).
• It would be difficult to argue that the current system for transport
concessions for the Crossing achieves this stated intention.

25
What they say about the TAC
• DOC brochure 1990s: “Often
described as the best one day
walk in NZ”
• Lonely Planet: “one of the
world’s greatest one-day hikes”
• Wikipedia: “among the most
popular day hikes in the
country”
• Trip Advisor: Rating 5*, 1056
reviews (85% excellent, 12%
VG, 0.2% terrible)
• NZ Rankers: 90%*, 788 reviews
• *caution with these stats

26
Eruption
on TAC
The TAC on the NZ risk landscape

27
TAC with existing & proposed toilet sites
Angus Associates 2012
Additional slides for reference

28
Summary in Bamford 2014:
Currently the Department of Conservation and Ngati
Hikairo Ki Tongariro are assessing their options for
sustainably managing the TAC. Their 5 objectives are:
1. Develop and future-proof the TAC as a sustainable
world-class visitor experience;
2. Increase knowledge, respect and understanding of the
values of Tongariro National Park (TNP);
3. Use the TAC to promote and grow the region(s) and to
ensure that it contributes to the economic sustainability
of local communities;
4. Provide economic opportunities and resources for the
development of Ngati Hikairo ki Tongariro;
5. Use the TAC to bring together and unify mountain
communities.

29
History of the Crossing
Pre 1900s: trails to Ketetahi Springs (medicinal & cultural) & birding
Early 1900s: bridle trail Papakai over to Waihohonu Hut/coach rd
1920s-40s: tramways built for logging in Ketetahi bush
1950s & 60s: Park develops track with tramping club assistance
1960s-early 90s: “Tongariro Crossing” track restoration & upgrades:
Summer Programme crossing & Ketetahi Springs very popular
1986: 1st public transport
From 1993: OSH/access/fee option negotiations with Ketetahi Trust
Early 1990s: crowding concerns raised
2007: “Alpine” added to name because of safety concerns
2008 & 2011: deviations circumventing eroded area & Ketetahi land
2012-13: eruption episode prevents access to full TAC until May
Towards co-management with iwi in last 20 years

31
Visitor surveys and other references
• Angus & Associates 2012
• Bamford 2014
• Blaschke & Whitney 2007
• Coomber & Leonard 2005
• Dhellemmes 2016
• Gibson 1996
• Keys, Williams and Leonard 2014
• Olsen 2001
• Slee and Curtis 1993
• Visitor counters
Acknowledgements to Bubs Smith and other
photographers, DOC & police colleagues, GNS
Science and Canterbury University

Harry Keys: Tongariro Alpine Crossing

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