Recording at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnHWR6e_8lw This webinar will address the key drivers of the PV market and industry in the coming years based on the Trends 2020. Gaëtan Masson, Operating Agent of IEA PVPS Task 1, will look at the past developments and future scenarios, from a global market development point of view to some key price evolution features. From social aspects of PV, collective and decentralised self-consumption policies to floating PV, this webinar will browse the global landscape of PV development. Izumi Kaizuka, deputy chair of the IEA PVPS Task 1, will present the trends of the PV Industry. The production of polysilicon, ingots, wafers, PV cells and modules have been growing with the growth of the PV market. The gap between manufacturing capacity of PV module and the demand contributed to the recent price reduction thus resulted in lower LCOE of PV power. Across the value chain, the PV upstream sector makes efforts to improve efficiency, output and reliability. Further progress of cost reduction is expected. In the downstream sector, players are also applying various methods to reduce LCOE.

1. Trends in PV Markets
Gaëtan Masson, IEA PVPS Task 1 Operating Agent – Becquerel Institute
Leonardo Energy – 04 Feb 2021

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What is IEA PVPS?
• The IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (PVPS) is one of
the Technology Collaboration Programmes established within the
International Energy Agency
• Established in 1993
• 32 members - 27 countries, European Commission, 4 associations
• “To enhance the international collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic solar energy
as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable energy systems”
• Active in market and industry research, sustainability, reliability, grid integration, BIPV, solar resource,
VIPV and off-grid applications.
• Task 1 is the task devoted to market, policies and industry analysis and the think tank of IEA-PVPS.

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Total installed capacity rising above 620 GW
Decommissioning is included. This
will become a key challenge in the
coming years, together with
repowering.

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A stable PV market in 2018 and growing in 2019
Beware of organisations publishing
AC numbers. PVPS publishes DC
numbers (Wp) to be as accurrate
as possible for energy production.

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From Europe to Asia
• Europe fueled PV development in Spain,
Germany, Italy and other markets followed (BE,
CZ, BG, GR…)
• Then Asia took the lead with China, Japan,
Thailand and now Australia, Korea, Vietnam and
more.
• The American markets are following the Asian
trend with some delay but remain small
compared to the Asian one.
• The Middle-East and Africa start to appear
• Asia > Europe > America > Oceania > Africa

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Top 10 at the end of 2019
1 China 30,1 GW 1 China 204,7 GW
(2) European Union 16,0 GW (2) European Union 131,7 GW
2 United States 13,3 GW 2 United States 75,9 GW
3 India 9,9 GW 3 Japan 63 GW
4 Japan 7,0 GW 4 Germany (EU) 49,2 GW
5 Vietnam 4,8 GW 5 India 42,8 GW
6 Spain (EU) 4,4 GW 6 Italy (EU) 20,8 GW
7 Germany (EU) 3,9 GW 7 Australia 14,6 GW
8 Australia 3,7 GW 8 UK (EU in 2019) 13,3 GW
9 Ukraine 3,5 GW 9 Korea 11,2 GW
10 Korea 3,1 GW 10 France (EU) 9,9 GW
TABLE 1: TOP 10 COUNTRIES FOR INSTALLATIONS AND TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN 2019
FOR ANNUAL INSTALLED CAPACITY FOR CUMULATIVE CAPACITY

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Trends key findings 2020

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Countries / regions shaping the PV global market
• The decline of the chinese PV
market in 2018 and 2019 led to
market losses but the rest of the
market grew significantly.
• Outside China, the market grew
up to 85 GW in 2019.
• 2019 saw with growth outside of
China compensating the decline
in China and more.

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Decentralized PV is stable in a growing market
Floating starts to be visible but
other nices are progressing at
alower level: BIPV – BIPVS, VIPV,
agricultural PV, IPV etc.

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Different drivers per segment

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Some key evolutions
Distributed PV Centralized PV
- 40+ GW installed in 2019
- Less incentives, more
regulations
- Self-consumption becomes
collective, delocalized,
virtual
- Energy communities
- Need for advanced
regulations
- Punishment taxes and grid
costs in some countries
- « Fear » from incumbents
- BIPV, small agroPV, etc.
- 70+ GW installed in 2019
- Super competitive tenders
- Easy to develop segment
- Storage requirements for
large-scale plants are
increasing
- Merchant PV is there and
business models are
changing
- Competitive enough for
green hydrogen production
?
- Large agroPV
- Floating PV

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More than 70 GW below 1 USD/Wp
78 GW below 1 USD/Wp
34 GW above 1 USD/Wp

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Most competitive tenders
0,0157 USD/kWh in Qatar
Could be achieved with 2500
kWh/kW/Y – Capex at 0.5 EUR
) 3% WACC etc.
In theory: doable
0,0112 EUR/kWh in Portugal
Out of reach without additional grid
revenues, storage revenues and
permanent grid connection after the 15
years of the tariff.
Traditional PV
business
model
Future PV
business
model ?

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PV penetration in the electricity demand

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RES in the electricty & energy mix

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Business value from PV

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CO2 avoided emission; 720 Mtons of CO2eq
1,8 % of all
energy-related
CO2eq emissions

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What to expect ?
- COVID might have slowed down the growth in s ome countries but it
has not stoped PV development, AT ALL.
- Estimated 140 GW installed in 2020 (PVMarketAlliance)
- China, USA up, Europe, Japan stable, India down, RoW growing
(Vietnam…)
- In 2021-2022: 150 / 200 GW ? And more ?
- Cost competitiveness is now a given under specific circumstances
- But costs must continue going down
- Local manufacturing is a must to accelerate the transition
- Hybridisation of the PV market
- Transport, buildings, industry, green hydrogen, IoT, …
- PV is a real tool to fight climate change and reduce C02eq emissions
- But it requires the right policy framework with a vision (grid
development, self-consumption regulations, and more)

19. www.iea-pvps.org
Thank you for your attention
Trends report is available
Gaëtan Masson, Task 1
g.masson@iea-pvs.org

20. PV Industry Trends from Trends Report 2020 with some update
Izumi KAIZUKA, Deputy Operating Agent Task 1 IEA PVPS/ Principal Analyst, RTS Corporation, Tokyo
4th February 2021, Photovoltaic market and industry trends webinar

21. Japan World
R & D
Deployment
Business models
Silicon feedstock
for solar cell
PV system
PV projects
Comprehensive Consulting company on Photovoltaics (PV)
RTS Corporation – founded in 1983, 36 year experience
Business: Helping establish PV business strategy, “Go to Japanese market ”
Clients: Government agencies, utilities, manufacturers (entire value chain of PV) project developers,
financial institutes, industry associations, etc.
in JP, US, DE, IT, FR, AT, NR, CHE, AUS, CHN, IND, KOR, Taiwan, Thailand, Norway, etc.
Go to Japanese Market
Consulting for PV projects

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Contents
• Highlights from PV industry from Trends Report 2020 with some update
• Upstream sector：
Production, manufacturing capacity, price, technology
• Downstream sector :
Inverters and trackers
• Impacts of COVID-19 and opportunities

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Yearly PV Installation, PV Module Production & Production capacity

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Share of manufacturing countries along the value chain (2019)
Source: IEA PVPS and Trends Report 2020, to be published

25. Planned capacity expansion of PV modules by major companies in 2020

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Yearly PV Installation, PV Module Production & Production capacity
???
140?

27. PV module top 10 suppliers in 2020 and major manufacturing sites
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Rank 2020 Shipment preliminary （GW） 2019 Shipment pleriminary （GW） 2018 Shipment （GW）
1
LONGi Green Energy Technology
(China/ Malaysia)
>20
JinkoSolar
(China/ Malaysia/ USA)
14.3 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 11.17
2
JinkoSolar
(China/ Malaysia/ USA)
~19
JA Solar Technology
(China/ Malaysia/ Vietnam)
10.3 JA Solar（China/Malaysia） 8.5
3
JA Solar Technology
(China/ Malaysia/ Vietnam)
15-16
Trina Solar
(China/ Thailand)
10 Trina Solar（China/Thailand） 7.54
4
Trina Solar
(China/ Thailand)
15-16
Canadian Solar
(Canada/ China/ Brazil/ Vietnam/
Taiwan)
8.6
Canadian Solar
（Canada/China/Brazil/Vietnam ）
6.82
5
Canadian Solar
(Canada/ China/ Brazil/ Vietnam/
Taiwan)
~11
LONGi Green Energy Technology
(China/ Malaysia)
8.4
LONGi Green Energy Technology
（China/Malaysia）
6.58
6
Hanwha Solutions
(S. Korea/ China/ Malaysia/ USA)
8-10
Hanwha Solutions
(S. Korea/ China/ Malaysia/ USA)
7.3
Hanwha Q CELLS
（S. Korea/China/Malaysia）
5.60
6
Risen Energy
(China/ Mexico)
8.5
Risen Energy
(China/ Mexico)
6.3
GCL System Integration Technology
（GCLSI）
（China）
4.57
8
Zhejiang Chint Electrics
（Astronergy）（China）
~6
First Solar
(USA/ Malaysia/ Vietnam）
5.4 Risen Energy（China） 3.35
８
First Solar
(USA/ Malaysia/ Vietnam）
5.5~
5.7
Zhejiang Chint Electrics（Astronergy
）（China）
3.7
Shunfeng International Clean
Energy/Suntech Power（China）
3.30
10 Wuxi Suntech Power ~4 GCL System Integration Technology
（GCLSI）（China/ Vietnam）
3.6 Chint Electrics（China） 3.15
Source:RTS Corporation based on IR report, etc., including estimates

28. Recent Price trends
Source: PV Insight、compiled by RTS

29. Glass for PV modules
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• Price of 3.2mm-thickness glass for PV module:
July 2020 : 24 CNY/m2 ( 3.72 USD/ m2)  November 2020 : 45 CNY /m2 ( 6.97 USD/ m2)
Then, the price has been stabilized
• PV module glass shortage was reported due to larger-sized PV modules
• Chinese government banned production enhancement for glass companies concerning excess production
capacity
• 3rd November 2020 : 6 PV module suppliers requested ease of production capacity enhancement for PV
modules to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)
• MIIT announced to exclude PV module glass from the list
• New capacity and conversion of glass plant for PV modules announced by glass companies
• Kibing Group（旗濱集団）: 607 million USD investment to new capacity (started operation in 2022)
and conversion of conventional plant for PV modules
• China Glass（中国玻璃) : Announced conversion of glass plant for vehicles to PV module
• Flat Glass Group(福莱特玻璃集団) : Announced construction of 5 new furnaces
Source:Press releases, etc.
Glass demand and supply

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Technology trends along the value chain for lower LCOE
Module
- FBR
- Debottlenecking
- Higher purity for
N-type solar cell,
and
semiconductor
mc-Si
· Cast-mono
sc-Si
· Recharging
· Multiple use of
· Crucibles
· Longer pulling
· Ga doping
- Larger sizes
156 158 
161/166
180/182
210mm
- Standarzisation
- Higher efficiency:
n-PERT,
TOPCon
(Passivated
Contact),SHJ, IBC,
Tandem）
- Bifacial
- Contacts (finer,
multiple, MBBs）
- Higher power
½ Cut, 1/3 Cut or more
- Bifacial (Glass-Glass,
Glass-Polymer)
Interconnection
（Shingled, Paving/Tiling,
etc.)
- Light weight, bendable
- Colored/Printed glass
- BIPV/BAPV
Location of manufacturing sites, Low-cost equipment, Smart manufacturing (Automation plus highly
efficient process management with IoT, Bigdata, AI and machine learning),
Sustainable manufacturing/lower carbon footprint
Solar Cell
Wafer
Ingot
Poly
Silicon
G1
M12

32. Recently announced high efficiency PV modules

33. Trends of wafer size : outlook by CPIA (released 3rd February 2021)
14
2021 trends
Large-sized wafer share increase
500W+ and 600W + rapidly introduced in the market
160-166mm share 45% in 2021
158.75 mm share 5% in 2021

34. 210mm VS 182 mm
15
27th November 2020: 8 companies along the
value chain proposed standardization of 210 mm
Polysilicon:Tongweiグループ
Wafer: Zhonghuan Semiconductor
Wuxi Shangji Automation
Cell: Jiangsu Runyang New Energy
Technology（Runergy）
PV module:
Trina Solar
Risen Energy
Canadian Solar
Huansheng Photovoltaic（HSPV) Technology
June 23rd 2020: Seven companies proposed
standardization of 182 mm
PV module :
JA Solar Technology
JinkoSolar
Canadian Solar
LONGi Green Energy Technology
Lu’An Photovoltaics Technology
Cell:Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology
（Runergy）
Jiangsu Zhongyu Photovoltaic Technology（SolarSpace）
Source:RTS Corporation

35. Upstream sector impacts on LCOE
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• Scale of the economy contributed lower prices of PV modules
• Competition also contributed (gaps of demand and supply)
• Higher efficiency and higher output will drive LCOE reduction on system
level (larger wafer contributed)
• Temporal supply shortages of materials affect the PV module prices
• Other factors affected PV module price increase
– Trade conflicts
– Exchange rate fluctuation

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Downstream trends
•Inverter
•Trackers

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Inverter
• Evolution of DC/AC ratio for higher capacity factor
• Share of Chinese inverter :~60% , regional differences observed
• Consolidation starting
• Products
• String vs Centralized
• 1500V or more???,
• SiC power modules for higher efficiency
• Transformer integrated for utility scale
• Storage integrated for DG
•Requirement for grid code and regulation
• Smart inverters  Grid forming/ grid supporting inverters

38. Inverter : China has 60% share in the global supply
Source: CPIA
Chinese inverter price
2019: 0.20 RMB/W (0.03 USD/W)  2020:0.18 RMB/W (0.027USD/W)

39. Regional difference of top inverter suppliers by region (2019)
Japan
India
Europe
China
USA
Latain America
Australia
Source rTS Corporation

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Downstream trends: Trackers
• Increase of trackers in utility scale: >70% of utility scale projects deploy trackers in US
• Capacity Factor : maximum 5% up
• Centralized or distributed control?
• Successful IPO in 2020: Array Technologies, Soltec
• Bifacial + trackers
Source：M. Bolinger, LBNL, “Utility-Scale Solar- Empirical Trends in Project Technology, Cost, Performance and PPA Pricing”,(2019年12月）

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Impacts of COVID-19 and opportunities
• COVID-19 impacts
• Various programs to deploy PV announced in green deal policies
• Uptake of distributed PV plus storage for sustainability and BCP
• O&M: importance of remote diagnostics highlighted
• Diversification of production sites expected
• Opportunities
• New applications: FPV (on-shore & off-shore), AgroPV
• Repowering and revamping
• PV and ESS
• PV for specific application = Product integrated PV : BIPV and VIPV , joint development
is essential

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Solar becomes the new king of electricity…

43. Acknowledgement for the support of PVPS activities
Contact : Izumi KAIZUKA, RTS Corporation, kaizuka@rts-pv.com