予防原則についてリスク分析の実務者からの見解として発表しました。応用哲学会での発表であり、科学哲学やSTS的論点との繋がりを強く意識した内容となっています。

1. 10 WS 2018/4/8 13:40-15:40
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2. Disclaimer
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3. Yij
θAlgae σjMeans SDθFish
Sensitivity differences among
taxonomic groups Normal distributions
Log(NOEC)
Parameters were estimated
by MCMC simulations
θInvertebrate
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2009)
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2010)
Monte Carlo Analysis
EPAF = F
µECD - µSSD
sECD
2
+ sSSD
2
æ
è
ç
ç
ö
ø
÷
÷
µECD µSSDsECD sSSD
Calculation of predictive
distribution of EPAF
Posterior distributions of ECD
parameters
Posterior distributions of SSD
parameters
Results: Quantitative Risk Comparison
Median and 90% range of EPAF
log10(EPAF)
Large Risk→←Small Risk
Chemicals
Ammonia
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Hayashi and Kashiwagi (2011)
3

4. Pearl
2015
2015 8 6
(2) 10:30-11:30
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5. STS
@taiwa_kankyo
twitter
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6. ML WS
STS/
"geek"
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7. (1)
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(2)
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8. Ian Hacking: An introduction to probability and inductive logic
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9. 9

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11. -3
H23
http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/chemical_management/kasinhou/files/information/ra/screening.pdf
11

12. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 12

13. Yij
θAlgae σjMeans SDθFish
Sensitivity differences among
taxonomic groups Normal distributions
Log(NOEC)
Parameters were estimated
by MCMC simulations
θInvertebrate
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2009)
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2010)
Monte Carlo Analysis
EPAF = F
µECD - µSSD
sECD
2
+ sSSD
2
æ
è
ç
ç
ö
ø
÷
÷
µECD µSSDsECD sSSD
Calculation of predictive
distribution of EPAF
Posterior distributions of ECD
parameters
Posterior distributions of SSD
parameters
Results: Quantitative Risk Comparison
Median and 90% range of EPAF
log10(EPAF)
Large Risk→←Small Risk
Chemicals
Ammonia
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Hayashi and Kashiwagi (2011)
13

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http://www.meti.go.jp/policy/chemical_management/kasinhou/files/information/ra/screening.pdf
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