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Construction institute1.16.09ii
1. The World’s Financial Crisis What Happened and When will it be Over? Robert W. Frentzel Executive Vice President and Managing Director The PrivateBank
8. Recovery Not expected till late in 2009 Quarterly Change, Annualized “ Potential” Est. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Blue Chip Economic Indicators, December 2008; Bureau of Economic Analysis
9. Credit crisis creates unprecedented interest rate volatility… 1m LIBOR, Fed Funds, and Prime
10. Targeted Funds Rate: Active Monetary Intervention Source: Federal Reserve Board Target 0 - 0.25%
11. Unemployment at 16 year high and likely to increase Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2008
19. Housing Market Beginning to Clear at Low Levels Source: MDA DataQuick and KBW calculations. Third Quarter Home Resales in California
20. Deleveraging Begins with the Consumer Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis and KBW research. * Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income. Saving from current income may be near zero or negative when outlays are financed by borrowing (including borrowing financed through credit cards or home equity loans), by selling investments or other assets, or by using savings from previous periods. ** Monthly data updated through October 2008.
23. Source: SNL Financial. Data as of 1/8/09. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) is an equal weighted index of 50 geographically diverse companies representing regional banking institutions listed on U.S. stock markets. KBW Regional Bank Performance
24. Source: SNL Financial. Data as of 1/8/09. The KBW Regional Banking Index (KRX) is an equal weighted index of 50 geographically diverse companies representing regional banking institutions listed on U.S. stock markets. Note: This graph is a continuation of the graph on the previous page. KBW Regional Bank Performance (continued)
35. Historical Bank Offering Activity Levels Source: Dealogic. Note: US and Puerto Rican bank IPO, follow-on, 144A, PIPE and Convertible offerings since 1998. As of January 9, 2009. Only $44.3B Raised in the Previous Decade Over $151 billion if capital from Sovereign Wealth Funds included Millions ($) Number of Deals
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38. Searching for a Second Derivative on Credit Source: ABX Net, company reports, and KBW calculations Delinquency Data * Total subprime delinquencies as represented by ABX. ** Downey Financial NPAs, excludes total debt restructured. *** Washington Mutual: nonaccrual prime home equity loans as a percent of WM's prime home equity held for investment loan portfolio; data represents quarter (e.g., Mar-07 = 1Q07). **** Freddie Mac single-family delinquencies. .
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40. Home Equity Delinquencies and Net Charge-offs at Banks (in $ billions) Based on Data filed with Bank regulators. Home equity loans and lines = revolving lines of credit secured by one- to four-family properties + junior lien loans secured by one- to four-family properties. Delinquent home equity = Home equity loans and lines that are more than 30 days past due or non accruing Source: SNL Financial
41. Credit spreads hover near record highs… 5 yr Industrial Corporate Bond Spreads over LIBOR
RETAIL CONSTRUCTION WILL NOT FALL OFF RIGHT WAY AS PIPELINE OF SHOPPING CENTERS IS STILL VERY FULL OFFICE VACANCY NATIONALLY IS 13.5% LOWEST SINCE MARCH 2001 MCGRAW HILL OVERALL CONSTRUCTION WILL BE DOWN 1% - FIRST DECLINE SINCE 1991 – 5% FALL IN RESIDENTAL AND 3% DECLINE IN SHOPPING CENTERS AND STORES.
Housing inventory at 7.3 months
SUB PRIME MARKET HAS ALLOWED ALLOWED 2 MILLION FAMILIES INTO HOMES OVER THE PAST DECADE HELPING TO PUSH US HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES UP TO 69% FROM 65%
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