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1. TM
P.I. Capital Letter TM
www.picapital.com.my Analyst: Fred Tam, MPHIL, MFTA, CFTe, MSTA, ACCA
KNOW WHEN TO ENTER & EXIT THE MARKETS TEL: 03-2145-5877, 2148-9137
Monday 09/04/2012 FAX: 03-2145-5755
Subscriber issue: Year 19/Issue 060 Circulation Strictly Prohibited PP8228/02/2012 No of pages: 7
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MALAYSIAN EQUITY INDICES-TO-WATCH:
No Stock Index Close +/- Rec. Resistance Support Daily Stop Trend Remarks
06/04/12 (Up Target) (Down target) Mom Loss* Ind.
1 KLSE COMP 1598.87 +5.43 Buy 1603hit!/1718 1581 37 - Bullish Expect rebound
2 KLTECH 17.67 -0.07 H 26.90 - -0.94 - Bullish See trend ind.
Note: If Momentum < 0 = Bearish, momentum > 0 = Bullish. This is only a guide. There are times when Mom whipsaws around the 0 level. MOM=40DAY
MALAYSIAN FUTURES-TO-WATCH:
No. Futures Close +/- PI Entry Rec. Target Fractal Remark
06/04/12 Price Stop
1 FKLI (APR) 1595.5 +5.5 1590 (L) Buy (Long) Upside:1603hit/1700 1578 OL S-T: Mini Wave 5 up
Downside: 1578 L-T(wkly): W5 UP
2 CPO (JUN) 3604 +46 3541 (L) Re-enter Long Upside: 3510hit/3700 3530 OL S-T: Mini W5 up
Downside:2430 L-T: Major W5 up
FOREX, GOLD & LIGHT CRUDE OIL-TO-WATCH
PRICE TARGET
ST
FOREX PAIRS 06/04/12 ENTRY PRICE TREND POSITION STOP LOSS 1 2ND 3RD
1.4180
EUR / USD 1.3079 1.3420 (L) Pullback MAINTAIN LONG - (hit) 1.4740 -
GBP / USD 1.5879 1.5472 (L) Pullback MAINTAIN LONG - 1.6750 - -
NZD / USD 0.8192 0.7713 (L) Pullback MAINTAIN LONG - - 0.8250 0.8760
AUD / USD 1.0309 0.9617 (L) Pullback MAINTAIN LONG - 1.0830 1.1560 -
LOCO GOLD 1637 1637 (L) Pullback Go Long 1608 OL 2237 2717 5000
L. CRUDE OIL 103.25 79.00 (L) Pullback MAINTAIN LONG - 106.77 114.94 -
INDICES-TO-WATCH
PRICE TARGET
ST ND
INDICES 05/04/12 ENTRY PRICE TREND POSITION STOP LOSS 1 2 3RD
DJIA 13060 12240 (Buy) W5 Long - 12860 14026 -
FTSE 100 5723 5790 (Buy) W5 Long - 6034 6768 -
HSI (06/04/12) 20593 20739 (Buy) W5 Long - - 22324 -
REMARKS : OL - Or Lower, OH - Or Higher, SA - Stay Aside, NA - Not Applicable, L – Long, S – Short, SW = Side Ways
NEW STOCKS-TO-WATCH : GTRONIC
STOCKS WITH SELL SIGNAL : -
STOCKS WITH TAKE PROFIT SIGNAL : -
EXISTING STOCKS-TO-WATCH : YTL, TWS, ATLAN, AXIATA, OLDTOWN*, UNISEM
PI WEEKLY COMMENTS FOR MONDAY, APR 9, 2012: KLCI LIKELY TO STAY FIRM AND EVEN HIGHER
NEXT WEEK AS WEAK MARCH JOB DATA IN U.S. MAY FORCE QE3. ACCUMULATE/HOLD.
NEW STOCK-TO-WATCH: GTRONIC.
STOCKS WITH SELL SIGNAL: NIL.
TAKE PROFIT SIGNAL: NIL.
EXISTING STOCKS-TO-WATCH: YTL, TWS, ATLAN, AXIATA, OLDTOWN*, UNISEM.
This stock market research newsletter is based on pure technical analysis. Statements and comments are subject to the limitations inherent in this technique of analysis and may change due to
unforeseen circumstances. Those wishing to trade are advised to use money management strategies to avoid getting over exposed in the event the market makes a sudden trend reversal. P.I.
Graduate’s comments should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock referred to. P.I. Graduate or its staff may have positions in the stocks covered. P.I. Graduate shall not be
liable for any losses suffered by the subscriber from following our analysis. This daily newsletter is published by PI Graduate Studies Sdn Bhd (521589-H), 167A, Jalan Maharajalela, 50150 Kuala
Lumpur.
2. Continuation Sheet 2
COMMENTS FOR MONDAY (APR 9 2012): On Friday’s close the KLCI was up 5.43 points or 0.34% at
1598.87 on lower volume of 1.27 billion shares traded. Advancers led decliners by 457 to 248 with 324
stocks unchanged.
1. DOES WEAK MARCH JOB REPORT DOOMS OBAMA ELECTION BID?: The March jobs report delivered
a downside surprise with the economy adding only 120,000 new payrolls, while the unemployment rate
ticked down to 8.2%.Politicians on both sides of the aisle will pounce on these numbers with the
Presidential election just seven months away. The question still remains: Just how much will it impact
votes in November?"I don't think there is a magic formula or a specific unemployment number that can
guarantee the President's loss or victory in November," says Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of the
Rothenberg Political Report and founder of PoliticsInStereo.com. Gonzales says it's more about the
perception of the economy and not the actual data. If Americans believe the country is headed in the
right direction, they will be less apt to change the leadership. This reality frustrates the White House he
says, because voters could be susceptible to a sentiment that may or may not match the numbers. Jobs
reports like the ones released today are important, but it's more about the broader trend leading up to
the election."If (the economy) starts to go down, there's more of a hiccup or a stalling…then that just
plays right into the Republican hands being able to say 'look it's time for a change, the President's policies
aren't working.'" If jobs numbers are the more cerebral data point, gas prices are the in your face
indicator for the average American."If gas prices are high I think that leads to a little bit of sense the
country's not headed in the right direction," says Gonzales, "and that would fall on the shoulders of the
incumbent president and people may be looking for a change once again."Regardless of the weakness in
the March numbers, Gonzales expects the President to stress overall economic improvement over the
course of his first term."The economy was so bad that relative to where we were, those numbers start to
look better and I think that's what the president is banking on saying 'at least we're not where we were —
things could be worse.'" Such an argument is "very different from the hope and change message that we
saw in 2008."Gonzales points out that the same metrics used to handicap the Presidential race are at play
for Congress too. And the bottom line is not good for Democrats. If America wants a change they'll take it
out on the President and his party and if they are happy with the status quo incumbents in both parties
stand a better chance at staying in office. That would mean an increased likelihood that Republicans
maintain control of the house. Will improving economic data lead to a second term for Obama, or will
Republicans convince voters the country is headed in the wrong direction? Let us know in the comments
below or visit us on
2. GOLD PRICES GAIN AS U.S. EMPLOYERS ADD FEWER JOBS THAN FORECAST: Gold in London rose
for a second straight day after U.S. employers added fewer than jobs than forecast, boosting prospects for
the Federal Reserve to use additional stimulus measures to spur growth. Payrolls climbed by 120,000 in
March, the Labor Department said today. Economists forecast a gain of 205,000, the median of 80
projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Minutes from a Fed policy meeting released this week indicated
that the central bank will hold off on increasing monetary accommodation unless economic expansion
falters. “There’s going to be this feeling that the Fed’s minutes that said easing was off the table is not
going to pan out,” Michael Gayed, the chief investment strategist who helps oversee $150 million at New
York-based Pension Partners LLC, said in a telephone interview. “We’re getting the consistent message
that stimulus is good for gold.” Bullion for immediate delivery gained 0.6 percent to $1,640.25 an ounce
at 8:49 a.m. New York time. Trading on the Comex in New York is closed today for Good Friday. Gold has
surged about 85 percent since the end of 2008 as the Fed held borrowing costs at a record low and
bought $2.3 trillion in housing and government debt.
3. OUR COMMENTS: On Friday, an important statistic came out of the U.S. and that is March Job Report.
U.S. employers added fewer than jobs than forecast, boosting prospects for the Federal Reserve to use
additional stimulus measures to spur growth. Payrolls climbed by 120,000 in March, the Labor
Department said today. Economists forecast a gain of 205,000, the median of 80 projections in a
Bloomberg News survey. With this piece of news, we cannot rule out QE3 (Quantitative Easing 3) which
indirectly means that the stocks markets, commodity markets including gold, silver etc, will rally further
at the expense of a falling U.S. dollar. We would therefore continue to maintain our stand to “hold” onto
selective index linked stocks and a few lower liners that we have called a “buy” earlier. Watch for further
strength developing and unfolding as a result of Friday’s weak job report. Any further rise would imply the
possibility of adding new positions to your portfolio.
4. EXISTING STOCKS TO WATCH: YTL, TWS, ATLAN, AXIATA, OLDTOWN*, UNISEM.
5. NEW STOCKS-TO-WATCH: GTRONIC.
2
3. Continuation Sheet 3
6. GOLD: Gold and silver are expected to rally on Monday with the release of a weak March job
report. Hopes of QE3 are now rekindled. We would call a “buy if gold is above 1625 and 31.90
respectively.
7. The ringgit steadied to 3.0630 from 3.0650.
8. CONCLUSION: The KLCI’s correction is likely to give way to another round of rally on the KLCI next
week. Chartwise, the long term trend is still up, as such it is a hold and a selective buy for the index
stocks as mentioned above.
Immediate Support is at 1581. Look to buy around this area - should it fall to this area.
Upside Targets: 1603 hit (right on target!)/1718 (Revised targets on 02/03/2012)
Immediate downside targets: 1581 (Revised on 4/4/12)
Ichimoku kumo support (Span B): 1537 (Revised on 28/07/11)
TRIPLE SCREEN READING WITH THE F-1 TRADER SYSTEM
F1-Trader (Daily) – Triggered a “sell” signal on April 5, 2012 at 1593.44 (Will trigger buy signal @ 1609.17
OH by today’s close)
F1-Trader (Weekly) – Triggered a “buy” signal on Dec 2, 2011 at 1489.02 (Will trigger a weekly sell signal @
1581,78 OL by Friday, April 13, 2012 close).
F-1 Trader (Monthly) – Triggered a “buy” signal on Dec 30, 2011 at 1530.73 (Will trigger a monthly sell
signal @ 1526.02 or lower by April 30, 2012 close).
F1-Trader Triple Screen: Sell-Buy-Buy” – Short-term Weak, Medium term Strong and Long Term Strong: 2
screen BUY. Hold/Selective index stocks still strong.
FOREX / GOLD-SILVER OUTLOOK
FOREX (U.S. dollar likely to weaken back on weak March job report raising hopes of QE3.) Expect
gold and silver to rally triggering a re-entry.)
STOCK INDEX FUTURES OUTLOOK
Stock index futures: Maintain long/Sell stop 1576 OL
APR FKLI futures closed up 5.5 point to 1595.5 on lower volume of 3379 lots.
1. Our view remains unchanged.
2. We are now long and even further buy as the weak job data in U.S. is likely to trigger
further rallies on world stock markets.
3. If you had bought above 1578, the sell stop will be at 1576 OL.
General comment: Buy/Hold/F.B. Support at 1578. Sell @ 1576 OL.
Upside targets:1603/1700 (Amended on 16/03/12)
Downside targets: 1278/1228 (Amended on 24/09/11)
Kumo resistance (Span A): 1572 (Updated on 28/07/11).
Average True Range for KLFE: A.T.R. is 10.21 points for FKLI futures. This implies you need to put a stop
above/below this A.T.R. or you can get stopped out due to the volatility factor. We advocate a 1.5 x or 2 x
the ATR. We are using a 5 days ATR.
CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES
Crude palm oil futures: Maintain long/F.B./Sell @ 3558 OL
JUN CPO futures closed up by 46 points at 3640 on relatively high volume of 10239 lots.
1. Our view remains unchanged.
2. We are long and even “further buy” on a ‘pennant breakout’ pattern.
3. Next target is 3700.
4. Sell stop remains at 3558 OL.
5. General commentary: We have re-entered long. Aggressive traders can “further buy” as CPO staged
a “pennant breakout”. Place sell stop @ 3558 OL.
Up Targets: 3510 hit/3700 (Revised on 16/3/12).
Down target: -
NOTE: If you are an intra-day player or a trader with a small capital, you should NOT use these daily stops
which is too much of a risk if it is triggered. We strongly suggest you to use the lower time frame charts and
use appropriate stops like pivot stops, 1,2 or 3-bar stops to protect losses.
Average True Range for CPO: A.T.R. is 47.43 for CPO. This implies you need to put a stop above/below this
A.T.R. or you can get stopped out due to the volatility factor. We advocate a 1.5 x or 2 x the ATR. We are
using a 5 days ATR.
No Name Index Close +/- Rec. Entry Support Entry Targets Daily Stop Trend Ind. Remarks
Price Day RSI Loss*
Construction
1 AZRB 0.835 +0.01 SA 1.05 - 10/02/2012 1.42 37 - Bearish Stop Hit
2 GAMUDA 3.59 0.00 H 2.25 2.95 - 4.16.4.90 45 3.56 Bearish Channel B.O
3