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1. Six Key Trends Shaping Future Society
Cornelia Daheim . Z_punkt GmbH . The Foresight Company
OECD: TIP Workshop on Future Orientations for STI Policy | 14th Dec. 2009, Paris
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2. Agenda
• Intro
• 6 Megatrends for STI Policy
• Conclusions
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5. CONTENT: 20 MEGATRENDS – SIX KEYTRENDS
SOCIETY TECHNOLOGY
• Urbanisation & Demographic Change • Digital Lifestyle
• Women on the Rise • Convergence of Technologies
• Cultural Diversity • Learning from Nature
• New Patterns of Mobility • Ubiquitous Intelligence
CONSUMERS GLOBALISED WORLD
• Next Level of Individualisation • Globalisation 2.0
• New Consumption Patterns • Urbanisation
• Thriving Health Sector • New Political World Order
• Increasing Security Threats
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
• Knowledge-Based Economy • Energy and Resource Reversal
• Change of the world of Work • Climate Change and other
• Business-Ecosystems Environmental Impacts
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6. MEGATREND: CLIMATE CHANGE & ENERGY AND RESOURCE
REVERSAL
• Rising CO2 Emissions and Temperatures
• Environmental Problems in Emerging and
Developing Countries a Risk Factor
• More Investment in Clean Technology
• Increasing Responsibilities for Companies
• Strategic Resources Become Scarce
• Use of Alternative Energy Sources and Renewable
Fuels
• Energy Efficiency Revolution Continues
• Growing Importance of Decentralised Energy
Production
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7. MEGATREND: DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE & URBANISATION
• Increase and Ageing of World Population
Source: UN 2006b
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8. MEGATREND: URBANISATION & DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
• Growth and Ageing of the World Population
• Shrinking Society in the West and High Birth Rates
in Developing Countries
• Increasing Migration
• Impact of Demographic Imbalances
• Urbanisation Mainly in Emerging Markets and
Developing Countries
• Strong Growth of Metropolises and Megacities
• Development of Adapted Infrastructure Solutions
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9. MEGATREND: NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
• Increased Global Mobility
• Increasing Barriers to Mobility
• Construction of Traffic Infrastructures
• New Vehicle Concepts and Drive Technologies
China 4,2
3,0
Latin America 4,1
2,8
Former Soviet Union 3,7
2,2
India 3,4
2,1
Middle East 3,1
1,9
Africa 2,8
1,9
Other Asia 2,7
1,7
Total 2,5
1,6
Eastern Europe 2,3
1,6
OECD North America 1,9
1,2
OECD Europe 1,9
1,0
OECD Pacific 1,8
0,7
0 1 2 3 4 5
Personal Transport Freight Transport
• Globally Increasing Mobility
• Passenger Transportation and Freight Traffic
• In 2020 China displaces the USA as Country of the most Car Owners
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10. MEGATREND: GLOBALISATION 2.0
Globalisation - a Continuous Process
From Global Trade to Cultural Globalisation
Globalisation of Socio-Culture
Globalisation of Firms and Work
Globalisation of Politics
Globalisation of Trade and Finance
t-10 t-5 Today t+5 t+10 t+20
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11. MEGATREND: GLOBALISATION 2.0
• Shift to Asia
• Creation of a Global Middle Class
• Global Strategies with Local or Regional
Adaptations
• Innovation Blowback
• New Partner Structures
• Increasing Importance of Supra-National
Institutions
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12. MEGATREND: TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
• NBIC Convergence
• Information and Nanotechnology as Central
Convergence Driver
• Impetus into many Fields of Application
• Questions of “Limits to Innovation” Posed Specifically
by Bioengineering “Design of the Human”
BANG-DESIGN - Disruptive Technologies & Applications through Convergence
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13. MEGATREND: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY AND
BUSINESS-ECOSYSTEMS
Change of Paradigm towards Open Innovation
The End of „Not invented here“-Syndroms?
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14. MEGATREND: KNOWLEDGE-BASED ECONOMY & BUSINESS
ECOSYSTEMS
• Education and Training as a Fundament
• Innovation as a Central Factor for Competition
• The Rise of the Creative Class
• Open Business/Innovation Systems & Networks and
Business Mash-Ups
• More Diverse Work Structures, Patchwork Work
Biographies
• New Value Added Networks
• Platform-Based Economy
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15. 6 MEGATRENDS: CONCLUSIONS
Megatrends Challenges for STI Policy
• Climate Change Megatrends
/Energy and •New Markets Energy /
Resource Reversal Environment; Infrastructure &
Mobility; Health
• Demographic Change
& Urbanisation •New Forms of Innovation
• New Patterns of •Sustainability Drive
Mobility
•Change of Means of
• Globalisation 2.0 Communication, Work, Value
Creation, Modified Lifestyles,
• Technology More Multi-Cultural
Convergence Environments
• Knowledge-Based
Economy &
Business-
Ecosystems 15

16. ADDENDUM: MEGATRENDS
Cornelia Daheim: 6 Key Trends Shaping Future Society
Z_punkt GmbH . The Foresight Company | 14th Dec. 2009
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17. MEGATREND: HEALTH THRIVES
• Rising Health Costs and Increasing Personal
Responsibility
• From Keeping Well to Health Style
• Novel Food on the March
• Resulting Converging Markets
World Market for Nutraceuticals 2006-2010
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15 5
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15
14 6
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Billion
14
13 5
,7
US$
13 12 96
,
12 3
, 7
12
11
1
0
2 6
00 2
007 2 8
00 2 9
00 2 1
0 0
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18. MEGATREND: CULTURAL DIVERSITY
• Plural Ways of Life
• Globally Competing Value Systems
• Creation of Hybrid Cultures
• Changing Multiple Gender Roles
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19. MEGATREND: BIOMIMICRY OR LEARNING FROM NATURE
• Biology Becomes the Leading Science
• Renaissance of Bionics
• Sustainability as the Lead Paradigm
• Cradle-to-Cradle-Economy as a Vision and
Innovation Driver
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20. MEGATREND: UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE
• Progressive IT Revolution
• Investment in Ambient Intelligence and Cloud
Computing
• Neuroscience, Artificial Intelligence and Robotics
• Towards the Transparent Society
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21. MEGATREND: CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
• Tertiarisation of (Post)-Industrial Economies
• Making Work more Dynamic and Flexible
• From Permanent Full-Time to Flexible and Self-
Organised Work
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22. MEGATREND: WOMEN ON THE RISE
• Greater Integration of Women in Professional Life
• Participation as Market Stakeholders
• Increasing Importance of Work-Life Balance
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23. MEGATREND: NEW POLITICAL WORLD ORDER
• Balancing of Powers
• China and India Become World Powers
• A New Dawn in Africa
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24. MEGATREND: GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
• World Risk Society
• Privatisation of Security
• Terrorism and Asymmetrical Conflicts
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25. MEGATREND: NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
• Increased Prosperity in the Third World
• Catching-Up on Luxury in China, India and Russia
• Sustainable Consumption Grows in the West
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26. MEGATREND: INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE
• Individualism as a Global Phenomenon
• Different Biographical Trends & Changing
Relationship Networks
• From Mass Market to Micro Markets
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27. MEGATREND: DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
• Web 2.0: New Media Conquer Everyday Life
• Digital Lifestyle and Virtual Business Worlds
• Virtual Business
• Augmented Reality
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