Más contenido relacionado Más de Comisiwn Cymru ar y Newid yn yr Hinsawdd/ Climate Change Commission for Wales (20) Met Office Hadley CentreClimate Programme 2012–20151. Met Office Hadley Centre
Climate Programme 2012–2015
Fiona Carroll
Knowledge Integration
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2. Met Office Hadley Centre Climate
Programme 2012 - 2015
Purpose of Met Office Hadley Centre
To provide up-to-date, robust and traceable scientific advice to HM
Government on climate variability and climate change based on worldleading science
Core of the UK’s national climate capability
Resources
~ 2/3 DECC and Defra funding for Climate Programme to address UK
Government’s key climate questions
~ 180 staff – scientific and support
Substantial gearing from location within Met Office
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3. Work of Climate Programme
• Monitoring global and national climate
• Understanding the climate system and
representing it in climate models
• Predicting future change and impacts
• Attributing recent change to causes
• Providing advice to government
• Communicating the science
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5. Policy Channel A:
Climate monitoring and attribution
Observing the climate system
Monitor trends and extremes in climate and
review observational needs
Attributing causes of change
• Global and regional-scale climate and extremes – e.g.
temperature, precipitation and humidity
• Assess changes in risk of extreme events
• Development of a near-real time system to attribute
extreme events (ACE)
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6. Policy Channel B:
Dangerous climate change (impacts,
vulnerabilities and risks)
Arctic and Antarctic
•
Near-real time briefings on the state of Arctic sea-ice
•
What role does Arctic sea ice melt have on atmospheric
circulation (and therefore regional conditions)?
The Meridional Overturning Circulation
• Impact of observed slowdown in 2009 / 2010 on regional climate
September Arctic sea ice extent
Methane
•Release from permafrost and wetlands
Sea level
• Reversibility of regional sea level rise.
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7. Policy Channel C:
Evidence to inform UK and international
energy policy
Scoping HMG requirements of climate science evidence to
inform UK renewable energy provision
Projections relevant to wind and non-wind renewable energy
generation in the UK
Relationships between renewable energy generation
sources across Europe.
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8. Policy Channel D:
Evidence to inform UK and international
mitigation policy
Global projections
Global temperature change and other variables
e.g. river run-off and permafrost extent for
different emissions scenarios
Climate impact assessments
Building on the climate impact assessments
presented at UNFCCC Durban
Land use
Assessment of the physical and biogeochemical
impacts of land use in a mitigation context.
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9. Policy Channel E:
Evidence to inform UK and international
adaptation policy
Three different
emission
scenarios
UKCP09
Seven
different
timeframes
Potential updates of UKCP09:
• seasonal resolution
25km grid, 16
admin regions, 23
river-basins and 9
marine regions
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• long return-period extreme events
10. Summary
• The Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme provides
world-class scientific evidence on climate variability and change
to UK Government.
• Over the three years the Programme will output ~130 outputs in
the form of papers and reports, plus many briefings.
• These outputs rely on the extensive underpinning research and
model development which forms the backbone of the UK’s
national climate capability.
© Crown copyright Met Office
Notas del editor The 2011 Texas heatwave is thought to be 20 times more likely in a La Nina year than it would have been 50 years agoIt’s important to note that we don’t see evidence for a strong human influence in all weather extremes. In the example of the 2011 Thailand floods no discernable impact from human activity is found. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) define feasible future emissions and forcings pathways, of varying severity, of greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol emissions up to 2100. RCP8.5 is a high emissions scenario that can be considered a high fossil fuel “business as usual” future. RCP2.6, which can be considered a world with a transition to a low carbon economy, represents very strong mitigation. They, along with intermediary RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 will form the emissions input for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (see Figure top).