This document discusses how marriage rates have declined in Tennessee since 1964 and the negative effects this has had, especially on child poverty rates. Some key points:
- The percentage of children born out of wedlock in Tennessee increased from 10% in 1964 to 44.1% in 2010.
- Single-parent families have much higher poverty rates than married families. Marriage reduces the probability of child poverty by 82% in Tennessee.
- Over one-third of families with children in Tennessee are not married. 73% of poor families with children are unmarried.
- Less educated women are more likely to have out-of-wedlock births. Marriage and education are both effective at reducing child poverty.
1. Marriage:
Tennessee’s No. 1 Weapon
Against
Childhood Poverty
How the Collapse of Marriage Hurts Children
and Three Steps to Reverse the Damage
A Heritage Foundation Book of Charts • 2012
Richard and Helen DeVos Center for Religion and Civil Society
2. Growth of Out-of-Wedlock Childbearing in Tennessee, 1929–2010
Throughout most of Tennessee’s PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN BORN OUT OF WEDLOCK
history, out-of-wedlock childbear-
ing was rare. 50%
When the federal government’s 44.1%
War on Poverty began in 1964,
only 10 percent of children in 40%
Tennessee were born out of wed-
lock. However, over the next four
decades, the number rose rapidly.
By 2010, 44.1 percent of births in 30%
Tennessee occurred outside of
marriage.
20%
Note: Initiated by President Lyndon
Johnson in 1964, the War on Poverty
led to the creation of more than three 10%
dozen welfare programs to aid poor
persons. Government has spent $16.7
trillion on means-tested aid to the poor
since 1964.
0%
Sources: U.S. Government, U.S. Census
Bureau, and National Center for Health 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Statistics.
Chart 1 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
3. Death of Marriage in Tennessee, 1929–2010
The marital birth rate—the PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN BORN TO MARRIED COUPLES
percentage of all births that occur
to married parents—is the flip side 100%
of the out-of-wedlock birth rate.
Through most of the 20th cen-
tury, marital births were the norm
in Tennessee. In 1964, 90 percent
of births occurred to married
couples. 80%
However, in the mid-1960s, the
marital birth rate began to fall
steadily. By 2010, only 55.9 per-
cent of births in Tennessee
occurred to married couples.
60%
55.9%
Note: In any given year, the sum of the
out-of-wedlock birth rate (Chart 1)
and the marital birth rate (Chart 2)
equals 100 percent of all births.
40%
Sources: U.S. Government, U.S. Census
Bureau, and National Center for Health 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Statistics.
Chart 2 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
4. In Tennessee, Marriage Drops the Probability of Child Poverty
by 82 Percent
The rapid rise in out-of-wedlock PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES WITH CHILDREN THAT ARE POOR
childbearing is a major cause of 50%
high levels of child poverty in
Tennessee. 43.5%
Some 43.5 percent of single
40%
mothers with children are poor
compared to 8.1 percent of mar-
ried couples with children.
Single-parent families with 30%
children are more than five times
more likely to be poor than fami-
lies in which the parents are mar- 20%
ried.
The higher poverty rate among
single-mother families is due both 8.1%
10%
to the lower education levels of
the mothers and the lower income
due to the absence of the father.
0%
Single-Parent, Married,Two-Parent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Female-Headed Families
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data. Families
Chart 3 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
5. Over One-Third of All Families with Children in Tennessee Are
Not Married
Overall, married couples head
slightly less than two-thirds of
families with children in
Tennessee. Over one-third are
single-parent families.
Unmarried
Families
35.6%
Married
Families
64.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data.
Chart 4 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
6. In Tennessee, 73 Percent of Poor Families with Children
Are Not Married
Among poor families with
children in Tennessee, about
three-quarters are not married. By
contrast, only 27 percent of poor
families with children are headed
by married couples. Married
Families
27%
Unmarried
Families
73%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data.
Chart 5 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
7. In Tennessee, Few Unwed Births Occur to Teenagers
Out-of-wedlock births are often PERCENTAGE OF OUT-OF-WEDLOCK BIRTHS
confused erroneously with teen BY AGE OF MOTHER
births, but only 8.6 percent of
out-of-wedlock births in Tennes- Under
see occur to girls under age 18. Age 18:
By contrast, some 78 percent of 8.6%
out-of-wedlock births occur to Age
young adult women between the 30–54:
ages of 18 and 29. 13.2%
Age
18–19:
16.9%
Age
25–29:
21.3%
Age
20–24:
40%
Note: Figures have been rounded.
Source: U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services, Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 2008 NHS data.
Chart 6 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
8. Less Educated Women Are More Likely to Give Birth Outside
of Marriage
Unwed childbearing occurs PERCENTAGE OF BIRTHS THAT ARE MARITAL
most frequently among the OR OUT OF WEDLOCK
women who will have the greatest 100%
7.2% Unmarried
difficulty supporting children by Mothers
themselves: those with low levels 90%
of education. 38.6%
80%
In Tennessee, among women 56.1%
who are high school dropouts, 70% 92.8% Married
70.3% Mothers
about 70.3 percent of all births 60%
occur outside marriage. Among
women who have only a high 50%
school diploma, over 56 percent of
all births occur outside marriage. 40%
61.4%
By contrast, among women with at 30%
least a college degree, only 7.2 43.9%
percent of births are out of wed- 20%
lock. 29.7%
10%
0%
High School High School Some College Mother’s
Dropout Graduate College Graduate education
Source: U.S. Department of Health and (0–11 (12 (13–15 (16+ level
Human Services, Centers for Disease Years) Years) Years) Years)
Control and Prevention, 2008 NHS data.
Chart 7 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
9. Both Marriage and Education Are Highly Effective in Reducing
Child Poverty in Tennessee
The poverty rate of married PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES Poverty Rate of Families by
couples with children is dramati- WITH CHILDREN THAT Single
Education and Marital Status
cally lower than the rate for ARE POOR Married
of the Head of Household
households headed by single 80%
parents. This is true even when
the married couple is compared to 70% 66.8%
single parents with the same edu-
cation level. 60%
For example, in Tennessee, the
poverty rate for a single mother 50%
44.5%
who has only a high school
40%
diploma is 44.5 percent, but the 33.0%
poverty rate for a married couple 30% 28.5%
family headed by an individual
who, similarly, has only a high 20%
school degree is far lower at 10.8%
10% 9.5%
10.8 percent. 5.3%
On average, marriage drops the 1.5%
0%
poverty rate by about 75 percent High School High School Some College
among families with the same Dropout Graduate College Graduate
education level.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Note: Virtually none of the heads of families in the chart who are high school
Community Survey, 2005–2009 data. dropouts are minor teenagers.
Chart 8 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
10. Unwed Birth Rates Vary Strongly by Race in Tennessee
Out-of-wedlock childbearing PERCENT OF BIRTHS THAT ARE OUT OF WEDLOCK
varies considerably by race. 78.2%
80%
In 2008, 44.1 percent of births
in Tennessee occurred outside 8.3%
marriage. The rate was lowest 70%
among non-Hispanic whites at
about one in three births (32.8 60%
percent). Among Hispanics, over 53.7%
half of births were out of wedlock.
50%
Among blacks, almost eight in ten 44.1%
births were to unmarried women
(78.2 percent). 40%
32.8%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Source: U.S. Department of Health and
Human Services, Centers for Disease All Races White Hispanic Black
Control and Prevention, 2008 NHS Non- Non-
data. Hispanic Hispanic
Chart 9 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
11. Growth of Unwed Childbearing by Race in Tennessee, 1934–2008
Historically, out-of-wedlock PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN BORN OUT OF WEDLOCK
childbearing has been somewhat
more frequent among blacks than 80% Black Non-
among whites. However, prior to Hispanic
the onset of the federal 78.2%
70%
government’s War on Poverty in
1964, the rates for both whites and
blacks were comparatively low. 60%
Hispanic
In 1964, one in thirty (3.2 per- 53.7%
cent) white children were born 50%
outside marriage. By 2008, the
number had risen to about one in 40%
three (32.8 percent).
White Non-
In 1964, about one in four black 30% Hispanic
children (27.4 percent) were born 32.8%
outside marriage. By 2008, the
20%
number had risen to over three in
four (78.2 percent).
10%
0%
Sources: U.S. Government, U.S. Census
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008
Bureau, and National Center for Health
Statistics.
Chart 10 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
12. Racial Composition of All Births and Out-of-Wedlock Births
in Tennessee
In Tennessee in 2008, some 67.4 ALL BIRTHS OUT-OF-WEDLOCK BIRTHS
percent of all births occurred to
non-Hispanic whites, 21.2 percent
occurred to non-Hispanic blacks,
and 9.3 percent occurred to His-
panics.
Because blacks and Hispanics 67.4% White Non- 50.1%
are more likely to have children Hispanic
without being married, they
account for disproportionately
larger shares of all out-of-wedlock
births. Even so, the largest number
of unwed births are to white non-
Hispanic women.
In Tennessee in 2008, 50.1
percent of all non-marital births 37.6%
were to non-Hispanic whites, 37.6 Black Non-
21.2% Hispanic
percent were to black non-
Hispanic women, and 11.4 percent
were to Hispanics.
9.3% Hispanic 11.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Health and 2.1% Asian/Other 1%
Human Services, Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, 2008 NHS data. Note: Figures have been rounded.
Chart 11 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
13. Non-Married White Families Are Nearly Six Times More Likely
to Be Poor in Tennessee
Marriage leads to lower poverty PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES THAT ARE POOR
rates for whites, blacks, and His-
panics. 29.5%
30%
For example, in 2009, the pov-
erty rate for married white families
in Tennessee was 5.4 percent. But 25%
the poverty rate for non-married
white families was about six times
higher at 29.5 percent 20%
15%
10%
5.4%
5%
0%
Married Families Non-Married Families
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data.
Chart 12 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
14. Non-Married Black Families Are Nearly Six Times More Likely
to Be Poor in Tennessee
In 2009, the poverty rate for PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES THAT ARE POOR
married black couples in Tennes-
see was 7.5 percent, while the
50%
poverty rate for non-married black
families was about six times
higher at 41.3 percent. 41.3%
40%
30%
20%
10% 7.5%
0%
Married Families Non-Married Families
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data.
Chart 13 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
15. Non-Married Hispanic Families Are Three Times More Likely to Be Poor
in Tennessee
In 2009, the poverty rate for PERCENTAGE OF FAMILIES THAT ARE POOR
Hispanic married families in Ten-
nessee was 20.8 percent, while the
60%
poverty rate among non-married
families was almost three times 51.2%
higher at 51.2 percent. 50%
40%
30%
20.8%
20%
10%
0%
Married Families Non-Married Families
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American
Community Survey, 2007–2009 data.
Chart 14 • Marriage and Poverty in Tennessee heritage.org
16. Three Steps to Reduce Child Poverty through Marriage
1) Provide information on the benefits of marriage in reducing child poverty
and improving child well-being.
Marriage is a highly effective institution which greatly decreases parental and child
poverty while improving long-term outcomes for children. Conversely, the absence of
marriage greatly increases welfare costs and imposes added burdens on taxpayers.
Unfortunately, almost no information on these topics is available in low-income
communities. This information deficit should be corrected in the following manner:
• Explain the benefits of marriage in middle and high schools with a high
proportion of at-risk youth;
• Create public education campaigns in low-income communities on the
benefits of marriage; and,
• Require federally funded birth control clinics to provide information on the
benefits of marriage and the skills needed to develop stable families to
interested low-income clients.
2) Reduce anti-marriage penalties in means-tested welfare programs.
3) Promote life-goal-planning, marriage-strengthening, and divorce-reduction
programs to increase healthy marriages and reduce divorce and separation.
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