Paulo roberto's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress
1. Downstream Expansion
in Latin America
Paulo Roberto Costa
Petrobras Downstream Executive Officer
LONDON, UK. June 2010
World National Oil Companies Downstream Congress
2. 2
DisclaimerDisclaimer
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts
merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management. Such terms
as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project",
"should“ and "seek", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to
identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future
results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must
not base their expectations exclusively on the information presented herein.
The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such forecasts
in light of new information or future developments.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas
companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a
company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests
to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and
operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil
and gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from
including in filings with the SEC.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
4. Brazil & Latin America: Real GDP Growth (Y-on-Y; % Change)Brazil & Latin America: Real GDP Growth (Y-on-Y; % Change)
Source: Global Insight
The Brazilian Economy has weathered the global economic slowdown with remarkable
resiliency.
It is expected to rebound strongly in 2010.
4
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
%
Brazil Latin America Latin America + Mexico
Forecast
7. Oil and Liquids Production, Proved Reserves
and Consumption
Oil and Liquids Production, Proved Reserves
and Consumption
7
Source: BP Statistical Review 2010
The geography of oil: consumers, producers, and reserve owners.
0 %
2 0 %
4 0 %
6 0 %
8 0 %
10 0 %
12 0 %
1
Total Asia Pacific Total North America
Total Europe & Eurasia Total Middle East
Total S. & Cent. America Total Africa
Oil: Consumption - 2009
31%
27%
23%
8%
7%
4%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Oil: Proved Reserves - 2009
3%
5%
10%
57%
15%
10%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Oil: Production - 2009
10%
17%
22%
30%
8%
12%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
8. Oil Production (MM bpd)Oil Proved Reserves (Billion Barrels)*
Refinery Capacity (MM bpd)
10,1
2,0
3,0
9,8
2009 2014
Latin America and Brazil Key Oil IndicatorsLatin America and Brazil Key Oil Indicators
Latin America Brazil
Oil Demand (MM bpd)
7,9
2,0
2,7
9,4
2009 2014
Latin America Brazil
7,4
8,3
1,9
2,4
2009 2014
Latin America Brazil
210,6
14,16
2009
Latin America Brazil
Source: Woodmackenzie, Cera, Pira, BP(2010) and Petrobras
*Proved Reserves of Crude Oil and NGL
Pre‐salt estimates will
add up to 16 bn boe
8
* Firm + Probable
*
9. Brazilian Oil Market Slate Vs International Markets (2009)Brazilian Oil Market Slate Vs International Markets (2009)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2010 and Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP)
During the last 3 years, gasoline market in Brazil have been contested by ethanol and
vehicular natural gas.
The Brazilian investment program, focused on increasing conversion, aims to reduce
fuel oil production and reduce middle distillates deficit.
9
49%
28%
3%
20%
22%
50%
10%
19%
22%
32%
25%
21%
23%
44%
14%
19%
28%
38%
8%
27%
38%
31%
10%
20%
32%
36%
14%
18%
28%
54%
5%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
US Europe Middle
East
Africa China Japan Latin
America
Brazil*
Light distillates Middle distillates Fuel oil Others
10. Latin America Oil Demand by ProductLatin America Oil Demand by Product
Over the next 5 years, total demand for oil products in Latin America will increase
2,31% p.y., while diesel demand will rise by 3,41% p.y. and jet by 2.85% p.y..
Gasoline demand is expected to increase by 2,18% p.y. between 2009 and 2014.
10
Latin America Demand Profile
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Gasoline Naphta Jet Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil LPG Other
k bpd
11. Evolution of Unit Sales of Vehicles – By Fuel In BrazilEvolution of Unit Sales of Vehicles – By Fuel In Brazil
Source: ANFAVEA
Gasoline or Ethanol or both? The decision lies in consumer choice.
High flex‐fuel share in total vehicle sales show the huge potential for competition
between ethanol and mogas in the near future.
11
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(*)
Thousand Cars
DIESEL
ETHANOL
FLEX FUEL
GASOLINE
* Total sales until April 2010
12. 23,3%
50,9%
8,2%
13,7%
3,4%
0,5%
Pure Gasoline
Anhydrous Ethanol
Hydrated Ethanol
Natural Gas
Biodiesel
Diesel
Gasoline C:
Gasoline + Anhydrous Ethanol
23.3 + 8.2 = 31.5%
Diesel (Total)
50.9 + 0.5 = 51.4%
Ethanol (Total)
8.2 + 13.7 = 21.9%
Brazilian Vehicular Fuel MatrixBrazilian Vehicular Fuel Matrix
Source: Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP)
Despite the competition between gasoline and ethanol, diesel has by far the highest
market share among oil products for vehicular use.
With higher economic growth expected over the next few years, the demand for diesel
will increase, driven mainly by the transport sector.
12
15. Potential Market of Otto Cycle FuelsPotential Market of Otto Cycle FuelsThous.cu.mofgasolineequivalente
Gasoline C: 25% Ethanol
83,7
%
4,1
%
12,2
%0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
80.000
85.000
90.000
95.000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Gasoline C Flex-fuel Hydrous Ethanol CNG
Vehicle sales in Brazil are being increasingly driven by fuel flexibility, following the
introduction of Flex Fuel units in 2003.
The fast increase in flex‐fuel share in total sales in 2005‐2009 points out a strong
competition between mogas and ethanol, followed by natural gas, over the next years.
Consumption of each fuel per motor type (includes motorcycles)
15
16. Refinery Utilization – Latin America and BrazilRefinery Utilization – Latin America and Brazil
Source: Pira and Brazil's National Petroleum Agency (ANP)
Better margins and stronger domestic market led to higher refinery utilization rate in
Brazil.
It means higher profitability and lower demand risk to refining projects in Brazil when
compared to Latin America.
16
Refinery Utilization Factor
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Latin America Brasil
17. Vertically Integrated System to Capture Synergies
within the Value Chain
Vertically Integrated System to Capture Synergies
within the Value Chain
17
19. Petrobras Total Production (k bpd)
Pursuing New Projects while Maximizing Production
from Existing Assets
Pursuing New Projects while Maximizing Production
from Existing Assets
* Plus or minus 2,5%
19
1500 1540 1493 1684 1778 1792 1855 1971 2100
2980
3950
252 251 265
274 277 273 321 316
384
623
1109
35 161 168
163 142 126 124 141
146
176
203
22
120
128
93
97
100110101
9694
85
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014 2020
Oil Production Brazil Gas Production Brazil Oil Production International Gas Production International
2.400
2.3012.2972.2172.0202.0371.810
2.525
4,9% p.y.
2.723
5.382
3.907
7,1% p.y.
9,4% p.y.
1,183
152
Pre-Salt
Pre-Salt
20. Petrobras’ Refining InfrastructurePetrobras’ Refining Infrastructure
As Petrobras continues to grow its upstream
business, the need for a compatible refining
infrastructure becomes more critical
RLAM
REGAP
REDUC
REVAP
REPLAN
RECAPRPBCREPAR REFAP
LUBNORREMAN
RPCC
20
With limited investment over the last 30 years,
Petrobras will increase capacity to meet the
needs of a growing domestic market
Refineries
Capacity
(Mbpd)
Troughput
(Mbpd)
Paulínia - Replan (SP) 365 324
Landulpho Alves - Rlam (BA) 279 254
Duque de Caxias -Reduc (RJ) 242 256
Henrique Lage - Revap (SP) 251 205
Alberto Pasqualini - Refap (RS) 189 142
Pres. Getúlio Vargas - Repar (PR) 189 183
Pres. Bernardes - RPBC (SP) 170 168
Gabriel Passos - Regap (MG) 151 143
Manaus - Reman (AM) 46 39
Capuava - Recap (SP) 53 45
Fortaleza - Lubnor (CE) 7 6
Clara Camarão - RPCC (RN) 26 25
Total Brazil 1968 1790
United States 100 98
Argentina 81 54
Okinawa 100 45
Total Petrobras 2,223 1,962
21. 1Q10 (k bpd)1Q09 (k bpd)
Significant Improvements in the Trade BalanceSignificant Improvements in the Trade Balance
Positive net exports by higher oil production, improvements in our refining
system and reduced internal demand.
21
426451
215
140
100
Exposts Imports Net Exports
Oil Oil Products
555
347
126
274
192
Exposts Imports Net Exports
Oil Oil Products
22. Focused Strategy to Add Value to Domestic CrudeFocused Strategy to Add Value to Domestic Crude
Expand refining capacity
in Brazil and
internationally
Improve margins by
expanding average
complexity
Use commercial and
logistical partnerships to
expand presence in
target markets
Increase production of basic
petrochemicals, capturing
synergies within the
Petrobras System
Optimize quality to make
Petrobras the preferred fuels
brand for consumers in Brazil
and abroad
22
23. 76%
6%6%
12%
Refining
Pipelines & Terminal
Transport
Ship Transport
Petrochemicals
Investing During 2010-2014 to Realize These GoalsInvesting During 2010-2014 to Realize These Goals
• Adding values to domestic crude and producing diesel and gasoline in‐line with
international standards
• Investment targets Fuel Quality, Conversion and Expansion
Downstream Investments
US$ 78.7 billion
23
73%
12%
7%
8%
Refining
Pipelines & Terminal
Transport
Ship Transport
Petrochemicals
Downstream Investments
US$ 47.8 billion
2009‐2013 Plan 2010‐2014 Plan
24. Domestic Crude as a Percentage of Total Feedstock Processed
91%
79%78%
80%80%
76%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2020
Petrobras’ refining site will be adapted to
run more domestic crude, therefore
capturing the light/heavy differential and
avoiding acidity crude discounts
Lessening Imported Crude Requirements for Refining InputsLessening Imported Crude Requirements for Refining Inputs
24
25. 3,012
2,260
1,7911,779
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2020
RNE
230 tho.
bpd
2013
Comperj
165 tho.
bpd
1st Fase
2013
Domestic Refineries Crude ThroughputDomestic Refineries Crude Throughput
REPLAN
Revamp
33 tho. bpd
2010
Premium I
300 tho. bpd
1st Fase:
2014
(k bpd)
25
Premium I
300 th bpd
2st Fase:
2016
Premium II
300 tho. bpd
2017
Comperj
165 tho. bpd
2st Fase:
2018
Downstream Investments
US$ 78.7 billion
• Adding values to domestic crude and producing diesel and
gasoline in-line with international standards
• Investment targets Fuel Quality, Conversion and Expansion
76%
6%6%
12%
Refining
Pipelines & Terminal
Transport
Ship Transport
Petrochemicals
27. 0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
2010 - 2014
Distilation Capacity Conversion Capacity Hydrotreating Capacity
K bpd
Domestic Refining Capacity AdditionsDomestic Refining Capacity Additions
Until 2014, Brazil will add 736 k bpd of Distillation Capacity, 495k bpd of Conversion
Capacity and 1273 k bpd of Treating Capacity
Coking units investments will convert Brazilian heavy oil into lighter products at the
same time that HDT units will reduce sulphur to meet international standards.
Treating investments will allow Brazil to have diesel in metropolitan areas containing a
maximum sulphur content of 50/10 parts per million, significantly lower than current
levels in 2009.
27
28. CDU Capacity and Petroleum Demand – Latin America
and Brazil
CDU Capacity and Petroleum Demand – Latin America
and Brazil
Source: Cera, Pira and Petrobras
Until 2014 Latin America will add 1,53 MM bpd of CDU capacity (Firm + Probable Projects).
Brazil represents 48% of this addition.
Projects ranked as “Less Likely” account for more 788 k bpd of CDU capacity
*Excludes biofuels
28
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014
Refinery Capacity - Brazil Refinery Capacity - Latin America (Firm + Probable)
Refinery Capacity - Latin America (Less Likely) Total Petroleum Demand* - Latin America
Total Petroleum Demand* - Brazil
K bpd
29. -
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014
Conversion Capacity - Brazil Conversion Capacity - Latin America (Firm + Probable)
Conversion Capacity - Latin America (Less Likely) Light Products Demand - Brazil
Light Products Demand - Latin America
K bpd
Conversion Capacity and Light Products Demand – Latin
America and Brazil
Conversion Capacity and Light Products Demand – Latin
America and Brazil
Source: Cera, Pira and Petrobras
*Gasoline, Naphta, Jet and Diesel
Until 2014 Latin America will add 1,12 MM bpd of Conversion capacity (Firm + Probable
Projects). Brazil represents 44% of this addition.
Projects ranked as “Less Likely” account for more 463 k bpd of Conversion Capacity
29
30. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Others (Less Likely)
Trinidad and Tobago (Less Likely)
Venezuela (Less Likely)
Colombia (Less Likely)
Others
Venezuela
Peru
Mexico
Cuba
Colombia
Brazil
CDU Capacity Evolution in Latin America –
(Firm + Probable) & Less Likely
CDU Capacity Evolution in Latin America –
(Firm + Probable) & Less Likely
Source: Pira (Refinery Database) and Petrobras
K bpd
Considering only firm and probable projects, in 2014 the major refining countries in
Latin America will be Brazil (2.6 MM bpd), Mexico (1.6 MM bpd) and Venezuela (1.4
MM bpd) representing more than 60% of the region total capacity.
Cuba (Cienfuegos)
Expansion
Company: Cupet
85 k bpd CDU
Trinidad and Tobago
(Pointe‐A‐Pierre)
New Refinery
Company: Petrotrin
200 k bpd CDU
30
Colombia
(Barrancabermeja/
Cartagena)
Expansion
Company: Ecopetrol
47/90 k bpd CDU
Mexico (Minatitlan)
Expansion
Company: PEMEX
100 k bpd CDU
Ecuador (Manta)
New Refinery
Company:
Petroecuador
300 k bpd CDU
31. -100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Others (Less Likely)
Trinidad and Tobago (Less Likely)
Venezuela (Less Likely)
Mexico (Less Likely)
Colombia (Less Likely)
Others
Venezuela
Mexico
Colombia
Brazil
Conversion Capacity Evolution in Latin America –
(Firm + Probable) & Less Likely
Conversion Capacity Evolution in Latin America –
(Firm + Probable) & Less Likely
Source: Pira (Refinery Database) and Petrobras
Conversion Units: Coking, FCC and HCCK bpd
Considering firm and probable projects, conversion capacity in 2014 will be also
concentrated in Brazil (1.2 MM bpd), Mexico (0.67 MM bpd) and Venezuela (0.46 MM
bpd) representing 65% of the region total capacity.
Mexico
(Salamanca)
48 k bpd Coker
60 k bpd FCC
Trinidad and Tobago
(Pointe‐A‐Pierre)
34 k bpd Coker
27 k bpd FCC
27 k bpd HCC
Mexico
29 k bpd Coker (Salina)
79 k bpd Coker (Tula)
Colombia
(Barrancabermej)
90 k bpd Coker
58 k bpd HCC
(Cartagena)
25 K bpd Coker
57 k bpd FCC
Mexico (Minatitlan)
56 k bpd Coker
42 k bpd FCC
31
Ecuador
(Manta)
90 k bpd FCC
33. New Vessels: Investments in Marine TransportNew Vessels: Investments in Marine Transport
Besides Petrobras Investments in Marine Transport, the two stages of EBN Program
(Brazilian Navigation Company ) will allow 39 vessels to be built by Brazilian companies in
shipyards located in Brazil, based on a 15 years charter contract with Petrobras.
(1) Promef 1 and Promef 2
(2) FPSO and SS
Supply Vessel Large Vessel (VLCC) Production Platform (FPSO)
33
678663430Total
838179Others (Jack-ups and TLWP)
635341Production Platforms (2)
491465254Supply and Special Vessels
31265Drilling Units
10 (1)38 (1)51Tankers
2013 to 20152010 to 2013
New Vessels Delivery Plan
2009Critical Marine Transport Resources
34. DOWNSTREAM PETROCHEMICALS
Comperj: Contributing to Petrobras Value ChainComperj: Contributing to Petrobras Value Chain
Products
Production
(kta)
Polypropylene 920
Polyethylene 930
Styrene 400
Ethylene glycol 380
1,720QAV
Products
Production
(kta)
Fuels
Diesel 8,060
Coke 1,400
Petrochemicals
Ethylene 1,245
Propylene 1,035
Benzene 410
Butadiene 170
p-Xylene 475
Sulphur 45
Expand the domestic petrochemical
market
Run Marlim crude as feedstock
Capture synergies from existing regional
infrastructure
Improve the balance within the commercial value
chain for oil, oil products and petrochemicals
Comperj is going to:
34
