EU Experience Climate Change Challenges & Opportunities
The North American Intermodal Marketplace @ YE2009
1. Select Views Of The
North American Intermodal Marketplace,
Past & Present
Including Its Key Participants,*
The Railroads, Intermediaries, and Truckers
*Excepting privately-held Schneider National, Inc., for which data details are not publicly available.
Thom A. Williams, managing director
March 9, 2010
3. Class 1 Railroads' Intermodal Revenues
RR Intermodal Revenues
US$s in millions
$5,500
BNI
$5,000
$4,500
$4,000 UNP
$3,500
The North American $3,000 NSC
Intermodal sector's
fortune is inextricably
$2,500
linked to international
CSX
trade! About 60
percent of N. A. rail $2,000 CNR
intermodal traffic
consists of $1,500
merchandise imports CP
and exports. In 2008, $1,000
the number of
international $500
intermodal containers
moved by rail from
$0 KSU
the seaports totaled
7.8 million.
00
01
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
20
20
KSU, 9-yr. ('00-'09) CP, 9-yr. ('00-'09) CNR, 9-yr. ('00-'09) CSX, 9-yr. ('00-'09) NSC, 9-yr. ('00-'09) UNP, 9-yr. ('00-'09) BNI, 9-yr. ('00-'09)
CAGR = +12.4% CAGR = +4.2% CAGR = +4.3 CAGR = +0.3 CAGR = +3.5% CAGR = +3.0% CAGR = +4.5%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
4. U.S. Maritime Port and Railroad Container Volumes
TEUs in thousands
45,000
45,000
44,400
42,000 Totals are for all container ports, including all container traffic (both loaded and empty
40,000 TEUs) in U.S. international maritime activity, U.S. imports and exports.
38,700
38,000
35,000 36,300
Totals are for all container ports, reflecting only loaded containers
(as TEUs) in U.S. international maritime activity, U.S. imports and exports.
32,700
30,000 Totals reported by the National
Retail Federation's & Global
28,969 Insight's Port-Tracker data, TEUs
28,190
27,600 shipped through major U.S.
25,000 26,100 container ports.
23,900
21,300 AAR reported total U.S.
20,000
and Canadian container
19,700 (COFC + TOFC) load
volumes.
16,504
16,428
15,000
15,402
15,200
14,639 14,437
14,027
13,939 13,959
13,160
12,700
12,465
12,108 11,996
11,600
10,000 11,383
5,000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
RITA-BTS U.S. Total All Loaded & Empty TEU Traffic RITA-BTS U.S. Total International International TEU Traffic
NRF-PortTracker Total Loaded TEUs Shipped to Major Retail Ports American Assoc. of Railroads Total Intermodal (COFC + TOFC) Volumes
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: RITA-BTS, NRF-PortTracker, and AAR reports and records.
6. Container and Intermodal Volumes vs. RR Intermodal Revenues,
2006 - 2009
Total Container Volumes, Total RR Intermodal Revenues,
in thousands US$s in millions
20,000 $16,000
$15,238
$14,324 $14,000
$14,192
17,500 $12,000
17,375 $11,809
16,865
16,428 16,504 $10,000
16,051
15,000 15,200 $8,000
$6,000
13,746
12,500 12,700 $4,000
YE2009 vs. YE2006: Container counts of imported goods fell ~23%, to 12.7 million at YE
'09, and the railroads carried ~21% fewer intermodal shipments in '09 than during '06.
$2,000
What does not arrive at the ports is not transported across the Nation.
10,000 $0
2006 2007 2008 2009
RR Intermodal Shipments NRF Port Volumes RR Intermodal Revenue
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and reports and records of the AAR and NRF-PortTracker.
7. 2005 Intermodal Railroads' Market Shares
How the 7 Class 1 RRs divided US$12.7 billion of '05 Intermodal revenues:
KSU
2%
CP CSX
9% 11%
CNR NSC
10% 14%
BNI
UNP
35%
19%
BNI CNR CP CSX KSU NSC UNP
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
8. 2009 Intermodal Railroads' Market Shares
How the 7 Class 1 RRs divided US$11.8 billion of '09 Intermodal revenues:
KSU
1%
CP CSX
10% 10%
CNR NSC
11% 13%
UNP
BNI
21%
34%
BNI CNR CP CSX KSU NSC UNP
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
9. Western (BNI, UNP & KSU) vs. Eastern (CSX & NSC)
Intermodal Revenues, U.S. Railroad Intermodal Revenues
US$s in millions
$9,000
BNI,
The Mississippi River essentially
UNP
$8,000 separates the spheres of influence of the BNI,
BNI, & KSU
Western-focused railroads (BNI, UNP and UNP
UNP $8,735
& KSU
KSU) from CSX and NSC, which likewise & KSU
$8,347
$7,000 dominate the Eastern third of the U.S. $8,158
BNI,
UNP
BNI,
& KSU
$6,000 UNP
$7,069
BNI, & KSU
UNP $6,608
$5,000 BNI, & KSU
BNI, UNP $5,908
BNI,
BNI, UNP & KSU
UNP
$4,000 UNP & KSU $5,191
& KSU
& KSU $4,829
$4,628
$4,567
$3,000
CSX CSX
CSX CSX
CSX & NSC & NSC
& NSC & NSC
CSX CSX & NSC $3,383 $3,524
$2,000 CSX CSX $3,188 $3,277
& NSC $2,883 CSX
& NSC & NSC & NSC
$2,287 & NSC
$2,235 $2,361 $2,503
$2,734
$1,000
$0
BNI,
2000 2001 UNP & KSU
2002
2003
2004 CSX & NSC
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Total annual Freight Ton Miles (Rail and Truck movements, combined) incurred within
States east of the Mississippi consistently account for near 60% of total U.S. freight ton
mileage, but now just 29% of total RR Intermodal revenues. Keep an eye on NSC's new
alliance with JBHT and CSX's with Schneider National; from the freight ton per mile
perspective, Eastern U.S. Intermodal revenues may soon far surpass what they are today.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
11. Freight Tonnage on Highways, Railroads, and Inland Waterways:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
12. Tonnage on Trailer-on-Flatcar and Container-on-Flatcar RR Intermodal Moves: 2006
This display illuminates:
(1) Intermodal’s strengths west of the Mississippi, where longer
transport distances (avg. 1,500+ miles) are dominant; and,
(2) Intermodal’s still-present challenges to capture revenues from
trucking in the much-larger freight markets of the Eastern States,
where the shorter transport distances handicap Intermodal’s “rail vs.
truck” pricing advantages.
Note, e.g., how little Intermodal flows to or from the East via rail from
or to St. Louis, Memphis and Dallas.
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: reports of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and the International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
13. Major Truck Routes on the National Highway System:
The Interstate
Highways are
congested, the
Rails are open,
and Shippers
always seek to
reduce costs.
Herein lie the
substantial future
Intermodal
opportunities for
CSX, NSC, JBHT,
and others!
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
15. Components of the Major Freight Corridors:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
16. Current Train Volumes Compared to Current Capacity:
Clearly, CSX &
NSC (dominant
holders of rail
lanes east of the
Mississippi
River) are far
from lacking
capacity to
increase their
revenues via
growing
Intermodal
activities!
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
17. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
18. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
19. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
20. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
21. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
22. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
23. AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: public records of the USDOT FHWA & FRA, and International Union of Combined Rail-Road Transport Companies (UIRR).
24. How the Truckload vs. Intermodal Freight Mix Appears Today:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: JB Hunt Transport Inc.
25. How the Truckload vs. Intermodal Freight Mix Will Look in 10-15 Years:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: JB Hunt Transport Inc.
26. Now, Let’s Take a Closer Look at JB Hunt Intermodal’s Very Successful Journey via Train:
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC
27. Intermodal Load Volumes: AAR U.S. vs. JBHT Intermodal
AAR Total U.S.
Intermodal Loads, JBHT Total
in thousands Intermodal Loads
JBHT's 9-year Intermodal 900,000
12,000 Volume CAGR = +8.9% 12,280,000
12,030,000
915,413
11,690,000
11,510,000
11,000 AAR U.S. RRs' 9-year Intermodal
Volume CAGR = +0.7% 11,000,000 800,000
837,575
10,000
9,881,000
9,956,000 738,207
700,000
9.3%
9,000 9,286,000 9,350,000
9,045,000
629,533
8,000 600,000
598,857
581,894
7.3%
7,000
527,404 500,000
473,856
6,000 6.1%
446,569
425,304 400,000
5.3% 5.3%
5,000 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%
4.9%
4.6%
4,000 300,000
3,000
200,000
2,000
100,000
1,000
0 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
AAR Total US Intermodal JBHT Total Intermodal JBHT Intermodal
Loads, 9-yr. ('00-'09) Loads, 9-yr. (''00-'09) as % of AAR total
CAGR = 0.7% CAGR = 8.9% U.S. Intermodal
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and AAR reports.
28. Intermodal Gross Revenues: Class 1 Railroads vs. JBHT Intermodal
Class 1 RRs' Intermodal JBHT's Intermodal
Gross Revenues, Gross Revenues,
US$s in millions US$s in millions
$18,000 $2,000
JBHT's 9-year Intermodal $1,952
Revenue CAGR = 11.2%
$1,800
$16,000
Class 1 RR's 9-year Intermodal $1,764
Revenue CAGR = 3.6%
$15,238
$1,653 $1,600
$14,000
$14,324
$14,192
$1,430 $1,400
$12,688
$12,000
$11,809
$1,284
$1,200
$10,943
$10,000
$1,115
$9,735
$1,000
$9,124
$8,616 $8,574
$8,000 $936
$800
$809
$741
$6,000
$681
$600
$4,000
$400
$2,000
$200
$0 $0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7 North American JBHT Intermodal,
Class 1 RRs, 9-yr. ('00-'09) 9-yr. ('00-'09)
CAGR = +3.6% CAGR = +11.2%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
29. Intermodal Marketing Companies (IMCs) vs. JBHT Intermodal
Intermodal Load Totals Load Volumes
1,300,000
1,306,237
1,200,000
1,165,015
1,100,000 1,135,582 1,137,938
1,000,000 1,053,771
994,174
900,000
915,413
800,000
837,575
700,000
738,207
600,000
598,857 629,533
581,894
500,000
400,000 Since YE '04 independent Intermodal Marketing
Companies (the IMCs tracked by IANA) have watched
300,000 their annual Intermodal volumes decline by ~312,000
shipments/yr. During that same time span JBHT's annual
200,000 Intermodal volumes grew by an near identical amount,
~334,000 shipments/yr.
100,000
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
JBHT total Intermodal loads, IANA IMC total Intermodal loads, 2009
5-yr. CAGR = +9.5% 5-yr. CAGR = -5.3%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K and IANA reports.
31. Key Intermediaries' Intermodal Revenues
Intermodal Revenues,
US$s in millions
$2,000
Little has changed for
Pacer and Hub Group
in the nine full years $1,764
$1,750 between
2000 and 2009!
$1,500
$1,250
$1,191
$1,055
$1,004
$1,000
$959
In the meantime, JB Hunt has nearly tripled
$750 its Intermodal revenues, and surely to
$681
Pacer's and Hub's considerable detriment!
Now facing JBHT's formidable traction here, do
either PACR or HUBG have much
$500
chance for substantive Intermodal growth?
$250
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
34. YE 2000 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market Shares
How the Top 5 divided US$2.8 billion of 2000 Intermodal Revenue
CH
RW
LST
R, $ , $7 HUBG
67 m 6m
il., 2 il., $1,004 million
% 3%
37%
JBHT
$681 million
24%
PACR
$959 million
34%
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
35. YE 2006 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market Shares
How the Top 5 divided US$4.4 billion of 2006 Intermodal Revenue
CHRW
LST HUBG
R, $ $167million
123
mil. 4% $1,173 million
, 3%
27%
JBHT
$1,430 million
33%
PACR
$1,492 million
33%
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
36. YE 2009 Key Intermodal Intermediaries' Market Shares
How the Top 5 divided US$4.3 billion of 2009 Intermodal Revenue
CHRW HUBG
LST
R, $
76 m
$186 million $1,055 million
il., 2 4%
% 25%
JBHT
$1,764 million PACR
41% $1,191 million
28%
While these top 5 generated ~$4.27 billion of gross Intermodal revenue during 2009, or ~$1.49 billion
more than during 2000, JBHT Intermodal captured 74% (~$1.1 billion) of that total increase.
Have HUBG and PACR been "asleep at the switch" for the past 9 years?
LSTR CHRW HUBG PACR JBHT
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
40. Comparing Gross Revenues
Gross Revenues
US$s in millions of JBHT Intermodal to Regular-truckers Werner & Swift
$3,163
$3,115
$3,000
$3,048 $3,043
$2,654
$2,500
$2,338
Swift
$2,000
$1,952
$1,882
$1,801 $1,795
$1,742 $1,764
$1,653 JBI
$1,500
$1,507
$1,430 $1,438
WERN
$1,284
$1,115
$1,000 During YE 2009, the TL segments
of Swift and WERN failed to
match even their YE 2004
revenues; yet JBHT Intermodal
$500 (JBI) was ~58% above its '04
performance.
$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Werner - Trucking Revenues, JBHT Intermodal Revenues, Swift - Trucking Revenues,
5-yr. ('04-'09) 5-yr. ('04-'09) 5-yr. ('04-'09)
CAGR= -0.9% CAGR= +9.6% CAGR= -2.5%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
41. JBHT Intermodal's Operating Income Grows ('09 vs. '04)
Operating Incomes
US$s in millions Amidst Declines of Regular-truckers Werner & Swift
$250 $254
$239
$235
$200
$184 $182 JBHT
Intermodal
$170 $183 mil.
$150 $156
$150
$136
$131 Swift
Trucking
$122 $122
$132 mil.
$113 $115
$100
$95
WERN
Trucking
$50 $68 mil.
$0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Werner - Trucking Opr.Income JBHT Intermodal Opr.Income Swift - Trucking Opr.Income
5-yr. ('04-'09) 5-yr. ('04-'09) 5-yr. ('04-'09)
CAGR= -12.9%. CAGR= +7.0% CAGR= -4.9%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
42. JBHT Intermodal's Per-truck Per-month Operating Incomes
Operating Incomes
Per-Truck Per-Month
Far Surpass Those of Regular-truckers Werner & Swift
$12,000
$11,792
$10,475
$10,000 $10,213
$9,915
$9,158
$8,000
JBHT
$6,927
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$1,488 $1,489
$1,339
$1,091 $1,187
$986 WERN
$763 $840
$962 Swift
$505 $524
$0 $659
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Werner - Trucking Opr.Income JBHT Intermodal Opr.Income Swift - Trucking Opr.Income
Per Trk. Per Month Per Trk. Per Month Per Trk. Per Month
5-yr. ('04-'09) CAGR= -6.4% 5-yr. ('04-'09) CAGR= -5.4% 5-yr. ('04-'09) CAGR= -2.9%
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
43. JBHT Intermodal % of JBHT Overall Results
74.0%
75.0%
Intermodal's % of JBHT's 70.8%
total operating income.
64.8%
Intermodal's % of
65.0% JBHT's total revenue.
57.9% 58.3%
54.1%
55.0%
55.1%
49.1% 48.8% 52.3%
%
45.0% 43.6% 47.4%
42.2%
43.0%
41.0%
40.0%
38.5%
35.0%
36.0%
35.3%
31.5%
25.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Intermodal's % of Total Revenue Intermodal's % of Total Operating Income
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: SEC Forms 10-K.
44. Publicly-held North American Intermodal Participants - Market Values on March 8, 2010
Market Capitalizations
@ 3/09/2009, US$s in millions
Intermodal accounted for 76% of PACR's 2009 gross revenue. Pacer International - PACR, $234
Intermodal accounted for 70% of HUBG's 2009 gross revenue. Hub Group - HUBG, $1,060
Intermodal accounted for 4% of LSTR's 2009 gross revenue. Landstar System - LSTR, $2,000
Intermodal accounted for 55% of JBHT's 2009 gross revenue. JB Hunt Transport - JBHT, $4,510
Intermodal accounted for 2% of CHRW's 2009 gross revenue. CH Robinson - CHRW, $8,840
Kansas City Southern
Intermodal accounted for 12% of KSU's 2009 gross revenue.
KSU, $3,490
Intermodal accounted for 26% of CP's 2009 gross revenue. Canadian Pacific - CP, $9,140
Intermodal accounted for 28% of CSX's 2009 gross revenue. CSX Corp. - CSX, $19,420
Intermodal accounted for 19% of NSC's 2009 gross revenue. Norfolk Southern - NSC, $19,830
Intermodal accounted for 18% of CNR's 2009 gross revenue. Canadian National - CNR, $27,170
Intermodal accounted for 28% of BNI's 2009 gross revenue.
Burlington Northern - BNI, $34,140
Intermodal accounted for 18% of UNP's 2009 gross revenue. Union Pacific - UNP, $35,590
$0.001 $10.000 $100,000.000
SPECIAL NOTE: This a 3 decimal point logarithmic scale, from Zero to $100.0 billion ($100,000 millions).
AmherstAlphaAdvisors LLC Source Data: NYSE and NASDAQ records.