How and when to respond on trends and innovations?; Martin Luckow, Lukas Fuchs - Trivadis TechEvent 2019

1. How and when to respond on trends and
innovations?
Reliable decisions through qualified overview
and clear evaluation of trends and innovations
Dr. Martin Luckow

2. Martin Luckow
• Since 2011@Trivadis
• Transformation Architect
• Solution Development
• Trend Radar Responsible
https://www.linkedin.com/in/martin-luckow/

3. Recap from
Morning Session

4. Inputs / Responses / Expectations
Ausblick in die
Zukunft
Was will der
Kunde (Kunde
von Kunde?)
übermorgen
Wo geht der
Trend hin
Überraschungen
vermeiden
Trends schneller
als der Kunde
identifizieren
Branchentrends
Schwache Signale
warnehmen
Massgeschneidert
für Kunden
Treiber und
Barrieren für
Business
Dead End Richtige Richtung
Was hilft der
Trendradar
meinen Kunden
Abhängigkeiten
Analytics
(Webcrawler
basiert)
-> Use Cases
Interdispiplinäres
Netzwerk
-> Ideation?
Querdenkeer
einbeziehen
-> Ideation?
Guidance in
What Technology
to Invest in the
Future
Trends, Impact
on Business /
Business Models
How are the
trends hitting and
affecting
business

5. Trend
Processing

6. Trend Radar
Trend
• Medium to short-term developments
• Local or global impact
• Fast trend change
• Influence on different areas of society
Megatrend
Trend
Quelle: Zukunftsinstitut GmbH
Megatrend
• Global impact
• Impact of each individual human being
• Impact on all levels of society
• Long-term developments
• Container for partial flows
Innovations
• Planned and controlled change
• Application of new ideas and techniques
• New business models for your products and services

7. Trend Radar-Workflow
Trend communication and processing
Ideation
Review
Labs/PoCs
Other
Trend
identification General use case
analysis and
preparation
Trend
presentation &
documentation
handover
Source analysis
Lab Apps
Web-Based E-Detailing
IoT-Enabled
Laboratory
Direct-to-Patient
Digital Marketing
Physician
Social Media
3D Printed Drugs
Signal Detection
…
Rating

8. Example: Follow Ups @ Trivadis
Training Sales & Delivery
Deliver
Marketing
Trend ?

9. Responding on a Trend or Innovation
Trend
Ignore
Mitigate impact
Leverage to rethink business model
Apply into business
Monitor
?
Specific
Use Case(s)
Refined
Key
Factors
?
?
Including
„General When“
„General Impact“
„General Use Cases“

10. Trend Ideation: Tasks & Results
Trend
Identified
Use Case(s)
1. Costs
2. Risk
3. Capability
4. Usability
5. Interoperability
6. Integration
7. Implementation
Activity
8. Regulation
9. Security, Ethics,
Privacy
10. Societal &
Cultural
Response
Ideation
DT
BMC
10 Key Factors per Use Case
Typically workshops
on connected trends.
Invest >3h per trend!
T1
T2

11. 10 Key Factors
Factor Definition Question
Cost Evaluation of the cost involved in implementing this trend What is the total estimated cost of implementing this
trend? How does cost compare with speed of
implementation?
Risk Evaluation of the risk involved in implementing this trend
(risk of new, unproven technology and its ability to solve a
problem or address a potential use case, such as financial
risk)
What are the risks associated with responding to a
trend, versus not responding to it?
Capability Assessment of the new capabilities this trend offers,
compared to what exists currently and in the past, and how
they can be applied to business challenges and
opportunities
What enhanced capabilities does the trend offer that
might outweigh the associated costs and risks?
Usability The degree to which the trend and its underlying
technologies are intuitive, user-friendly and easy to use
How user-friendly are these technologies
underpinning this trend?
Interoperability The degree to which the underlying technologies that
support this trend interoperate with existing technologies
and systems
What level of interoperability do these technologies
have?

12. 10 Key Factors
Factor Definition Question
Integration The ease of integrating this trend into existing systems How easily can the technologies relating to this trend
be integrated into the existing IT systems?
Implementation
Activity
The extent to which organizations have already run proofs
of concept involving this trend and begun to implement the
underlying technologies
How many organizations are currently implementing
or have implemented this trend?
Regulatory
Compliance
The existence or probable introduction of regulation and
compliance requirements that could slow down the
adoption of this trend
What regulation or compliance requirements
currently exist that affect this trend?
What regulatory issues could this trend trigger?
What regulation might be required in the future?
Security and Privacy The security and privacy risks associated with this trend What security and privacy concerns might arise from
this trend?
Social and Cultural
Response
The way in which society and different cultures respond to
this trend, in terms of whether it is seen as “fashionable” or
“desirable” and how it might affect cultural norms
How will different societies and cultures respond to
this trend and how will that help or hinder its
growth?

13. Weight of factors & trend maturity
Factor Emerging Growing Mature
Integration
Implementation Activity
Regulatory Compliance
Security and Privacy
Social and Cultural Response
Integration
Implementation Activity
Regulatory Compliance
Security and Privacy
Social and Cultural Response
High effect
Medium effect
Lower effect
Emerging • Commercialization by vendors
• Pilots and deployments by
industry leaders
Growing • Evolving technology
capabilities, methodologies,
and associated infrastructure
and ecosystems
• Adoption levels typically
between 5% and 20% of target
audience
Mature • Innovation is proven and value
is relatively predictable in
many, but not all,
environments
• Capabilities continue to evolve
• Adoption level typically ranges
from 20% to 50% of target
audience

14. 10 Key Factors
Factor Virtual Reality Rating
Cost The total cost of implementing VR is high due to the cost of devices and the cost of hiring a design
consultancy if the skills to develop VR apps are not present in-house.
6
Risk Implementation risks are medium since there are a growing number of design consultancies that can
help organizations implement VR. However, risks concern the quality of the VR experience and proving
the business value/ROI of VR investments. Risk of not implementing is that competitors will win over
customers with novel use of VR in marketing.
5
Capability VR offers an immersive, 3D experience that previous technologies have not provided. Hardware
capabilities (such as form factor, displays, haptics, eye tracking, other sensors, 3D audio integration and
communications) all need to improve to deliver this immersive experience.
3
Usability Usability is currently improving, depending on app design as well as HMD and gesture control. 2
Interoperability An issue: How to combine VR with virtual assistants, conversational platforms and existing applications
to produce an immersive experience in the future.
3
Integration At present, VR does not easily integrate with existing systems and will radically disrupt and
transform how we design the user interface and experience.
3
… … …
VR

15. Summary & Recommendations

16. •No Comment
Implement a Trend
Radar
•Think about using different kinds of ideation (DT, canvas, ...) ... Trends
and innovations must be examined from different perspectives
(strategic, operational).
Implement ideation
methods
•Plan how you should respond to the evolution and maturity of a
technology trend by considering the 10 factors. → Establish an
ideation process
Plan response process
•Determine the right time to respond to a trend by tracking how the 10
factors change as a trend evolves. Will help to assess when to respond
to a trend, to minimize the risk of early adoption and maximize the
chances of success for later adoption.
Priorize trends by time
•Perform a qualitative assessment of how each of the 10 factors
impacts a particular technology trend. This will help to identify upfront
the opportunities and challenges involved in responding to that trend.
Qualitative trend
assessment

17. Implementation: Scrums with Handshake
Raw
Trend
Backlog
Sprint
Backlog
4 weeks
time for
elaboration
7 Days
Review
Elaborated
Trend
Backlog
Sprint
Backlog
4 weeks
time for
ideation
7 Days
Review
1
2
3
4
5
6
Qualified
trend/use
case-pairs
Trend
identification General use case
analysis and
preparation
Trend
presentation &
documentation
handover
Source analysis
Lab Apps
Web-Based E-Detailing
IoT-Enabled Laboratory
Direct-to-Patient Digital Marketing
Physician Social Media
3D Printed Drugs
Signal Detection
…
Rat
ing
POC
Lab
…