Market Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, livestock and agricultural economist, Paragon Economics, Inc. , from the 2012 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 18-19, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
1. Minnesota Pork Congress – January, 2012
Meat Sector Outlook
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
2. Key issues for „12 pork producer profits
Exports – Exchange rates, trade
policy, disease status
U.S. demand – U.S. economy, prices of
competitor goods
Feed prices – S. American crops, moisture
situation, 2012 acreage/yields
Hog/pork supplies -- Productivity (farrow-
ings, litter size), herd health, weights
Packing capacity re. hog numbers this fall
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
3. CROPS and COSTS
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
4. „12 corn yield 5.8% below 1960-2010 trend . . .
. . . And 8.2% below “biotech” trend
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
5. Today‟s report
ANALYST'S ESTIMATES
CORN & SOYBEAN YIELD & PRODUCTION, 2011
January 12, 2012 Crop Production/WASDE Reports
Analysts' Estimates, '11
USDA '11 USDA '11
Units USDA '10 Dec Low High Average Dec
Corn Yield Bu/Acre 152.8 146.7 145.0 147.5 146.2 147.2
Crop Bil. Bu. 12.447 12.310 12.165 12.375 12.265 12.358
Soybeans Yield Bu/Acre 43.5 41.3 41.0 42.7 41.4 41.5
Crop Bil. Bu. 3.329 3.046 3.010 3.200 3.048 3.056
GRAIN STOCKS, DECEMBER 1, 2011
January 12, 2012 Grain Stocks Report
Analysts' Estimates, Dec. 1, '11
USDA, USDA, USDA,
Units Dec 1 '10 Sept 1, '11 Low High Average Dec1, '11
Wheat Bil. Bu. 1.933 2.150 1.590 1.904 1.695 1.656
Corn Bil. Bu. 10.057 1.128 9.200 9.700 9.391 9.641
Soybeans Bil. Bu. 2.278 0.215 2.227 2.577 2.324 2.366
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
6. Result: Continually shrinking corn crop . . .
. . higher stocks, but still 2nd lowest S/U ratio
U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - DECEMBER
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Estimate %Chng vs.
USDA Oct USDA Nov '10-'11
Acres Planted Mil A 86.4 88.2 91.9 91.9 4.2%
Acres Harvested Mil A 79.5 81.4 83.9 84 3.2%
Yield Bu/A 164.7 152.8 146.7 147.2 -3.7%
Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 1673 1708 1128 1128 -34.0%
Production Mil Bu. 13092 12447 12310 12358 -0.7%
Imports Mil Bu. 8 27 15 15 -44.4%
Total Supply Mil Bu. 5961 14182 13453 13501 -4.8%
Feed & Residual Mil Bu. 5125 4793 4600 4600 -4.0%
Ethanol for fuel Mil Bu. 4591 5021 5000 5000 -0.4%
Non-Ethanol FSI Mil Bu. 10183 1395 1405 1405 0.7%
Exports Mil Bu. 1980 1835 1600 1650 -10.1%
Total Usage Mil Bu. 13066 13053 12605 12655 -3.0%
Carryover Mil Bu. 1708 1128 848 846 -25.0%
Stocks/Use 13.1% 8.6% 6.7% 6.7% -22.6%
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 3.55 5.18 5.90 - 6.90 5.70 - 6.70 27.6%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
7. Corn went to ethanol due to PROFITS!!!!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
8. Ethanol now uses more corn than feed/res.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
9. World corn stocks: Forecast is 3rd lowest
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
10. Corn at bottom of “range” – lower in Q3 & Q4
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
11. 2011 drought grew into the Cornbelt
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
14. U.S. soybean crop has held up better
U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - JANUARY
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
USDA USDA % Chng vs
December Januayr '10-11
Acres Planted Mil A 77.5 77.4 75.0 75.0 -3.1%
Acres Harvested Mil A 76.4 76.6 73.7 73.6 -3.9%
Yield Bu/A 44.0 43.5 41.3 41.5 -4.6%
Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 138 151 215 215 42.4%
Production Mil Bu. 3359 3329 3046 3056 -8.2%
Imports Mil Bu. 15 14 15 15 7.1%
Total Supply Mil Bu. 3512 3495 3275 3286 -6.0%
Crushings Mil Bu. 1752 1648 1625 1615 -2.0%
Exports Mil Bu. 1499 1501 1300 1275 -15.1%
Seed Mil Bu. 90 87 88 88 1.1%
Residual Mil Bu. 20 43 32 32 -25.6%
Total Usage Mil Bu. 3361 3280 3045 3011 -8.2%
Carryover Mil Bu. 151 215 230 275 27.9%
Stocks/Use 4.5% 6.6% 7.6% 9.1% 39.3%
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 9.59 11.3010.70 - 12.7010.95 - 12.45 3.5%
Soybean Oil Price Cents/lb. 35.95 53.20 53.00-57.00 50.50-54.50 -1.3%
Soybean Meal Price $/ton 311.27 345.52 355-385 280-310 -15.7%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
15. Weekly SBM cash and futures prices
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
16. Still have ample wheat stocks
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
17. And wheat is NOT keeping up with corn . . .
. . . More feeding is likely a long-term trend
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
18. DDGS may be pricing OUT of hog diets . . .
. . . Cattle feed demand, exports
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
19. Hog costs were record high in ‟11 . . .
. . . Have risen from $81.12 for ‟12 since Dec
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
20. MEAT & POULTRY
DEMAND
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
21. GDP growth: Improving again– but still slow
QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter
Percent Change
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Livestock Marketing Information Center 12/29/11
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
22. REAL disposable income FELL in 2011
TOTAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
Quarterly
Bil. Dollars
12000
11500
11000
10500 Current
Dollars
10000
9500
9000 2005
8500 Dollars
8000
7500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Livestock Marketing Information Center 12/29/11
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
23. Per cap Disposable Income = Mid-2006 . . .
. . . And 4.3% below the peak in 2008
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE
PERSONAL INCOME
Dollars Quarterly
40000
38000
36000 Current
Dollar
34000
32000
2005
30000
Dollar
28000
26000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
24. Savings rate is falling – Necessity?
PERSONAL SAVINGS AS A PERCENT OF
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME
Percent
Current Dollars, Quarterly
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Livestock Marketing Information Center 12/29/11
Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
25. Consumer sentiment: Highest since June . . .
. . . Improving employment/unemployment
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
26. Domestic meat demand improved in ‟11 . . .
. . For all species, last data point is Dec-Nov
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
27. Yr/yr monthly data – have softened recently
November
monthly index
vs. ‘10:
Pork: -1.7%
Chicken: -8.7%
Beef: +1.3%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
28. RPI improving – highest since April . . .
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
29. What will be the impact of record prices?
. . . NOT lower demand but lower Q demanded
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
30. Dollar Index futures have gained ~10%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
31. Competitors: All have gained since mid „10
. . . Some recent “flight to safety” – Over?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
32. Customers: Same situation . . .
. . . Impact of peso and won weakening?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
33. Pork exports will be record large in 2011
. . . And, most likely, again in 2012
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
34. Pork exports – EXCELLENT (+23%) thru Nov. . .
. . . China & Korea up >100%, Mexico -0.5%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
35. CHICKEN
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
36. Broiler losses – Large and continuing!
. .. 2010 expansion plus higher grain prices
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
37. AGGRESSIVE broiler cuts since mid-summer. .
2011 cuts offset ALL of
2010 increases
DOWN 6% YTD 2012
Placements are now
-4.2% since June 1 and
3.5% since Jan 1
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
38. Reason: Higher weights – are persisting . . .
. . . Continuing breast meat glut, low prices
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
39. Broiler cutout FINALLY broke thru $90 . . .
. . . traction from cutbacks has been slow
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
40. And some improvement in breast meat!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
41. CATTLE/BEEF
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
42. Lowest U.S. beef cow inventory since 1963
2011 = 30.9 Million Head
-1.6 Percent
2011 = 9.1 Million Head
+0.7 Percent
Livestock Marketing Information Center C-N-02
Data Source: USDA/NASS 07/23/10
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
43. Beef: Four smallest calf crops since 1950
2011 = 35.5 Million Head
-0.5 Percent
2010 = 35.7 Million Head
-0.7 Percent
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
44. Drought is the driver for beef industry now
State Beef Cows
(Thousand)
TX 5025
OK 2036
KS 1478
FL 926
CO 727
AL 659
GA 502
MS 495
NM 488
LA 461
NC 351
SC 184
AZ 180
Total 13512
Share 43.8%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
45. COF was +4% on Dec 1 – 18 months up . . .
. . . Not indicative of lower fed supplies -- YET
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
46. Slaughter lower than ‟10 in 11 of last 13 wks.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
47. Beef cow slaughter +11.3% since June 1 . . .
. . . Mainly TX & OK, some growth elsewhere
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
48. Add in growing exports and . . .
. . . U.S. consumption/availability: -3.8% in „12
U S BEEF CONSUMPTION
Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual
Pounds
75
70
65
60
55
50
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
49. New record high for Choice cutout @ $196.64
. . . My $200 prediction appears safe???
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
50. HOGS AND PORK
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
51. Dec H&P Report: Continued slow growth . . .
USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report
December 23, 2011
2011 as Pre- Actual -
Category 2010 2011 Pct of Report Estimate
Inventories on December 11
All hogs and pigs 64,925 65,931 101.5 101.3 0.2
Kept for breeding 5,778 5,803 100.4 100.8 -0.4
Kept for market 59,147 60,128 101.7 101.3 0.4
Under 50 lbs. 18,864 19,271 102.2 101.8 0.4
50-119 lbs. 16,519 16,895 102.3 101.5 0.8
120-179 lbs. 12,233 12,472 102.0 101.0 1.0
180 lbs. and over 11,531 11,490 99.6 101.2 -1.6
Farrowings 2
Sep-Nov sows farrowed 2,874 2,894 100.7 99.9 0.8
Dec-Feb Intentions 2,843 2,865 100.8 100.6 0.2
Mar-May Intentions 2,917 2,890 99.1 100.8 -1.7
Sep-Nov Pig Crop1 28,488 29,014 101.8 101.6 0.2
Sep-Nov pigs saved per litter 9.91 10.02 101.1 101.6 -0.5
*Thousand head **Thousand litters
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
52. Doing more and more with same herd!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
53. Litter size growth 2.0% over past 4 years. . .
. . . How high can litter size go?
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
54. Q4 ‟11 was -2 to 3% from ‟10 . . .
. . . With Q2 and Q3 „12 supplies up 1.5 – 2.5%
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
55. Weights remain large and GROWING. . .
. . . Genetics, fixed costs, matrixes
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
56. Cutout value begins „12 near „11 level . . .
. . . Match yr ago: Exports, domestic demand
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
57. Neg‟d Net prices stayed above $80 from Jan!
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
58. Sows very likely to remain at $60-plus in „12
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
59. „12 profits have increased $10/hd since Dec
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
60. Slaughter forecasts are mixed – slghtr days
December 2011 Hogs & Pigs Slaughter Forecasts
Mizzou ISU LMIC Paragon
Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge
2010 Q1 27.630 -3.1%
Q2 26.074 -3.7%
Q3 26.931 -5.3%
Q4 29.626 0.0%
Year 110.260 -3.0%
2011 Q1** 27.486 -0.5% 27.486 -0.5% 27.486 -0.5%
Q2 26.113 0.1% 26.113 0.1% 26.113 0.1%
Q3 27.374 1.6% 27.374 1.6% 27.374 1.6%
Q4* 29.879 0.9% 29.960 1.1% 29.740 0.4%
Year 110.852 0.5% 110.933 0.6% 110.713 0.4%
2012 Q1 27.734 0.9% 27.668 0.7% 27.953 1.7%
Q2 26.392 1.1% 26.392 1.1% 26.600 1.9%
Q3* 27.233 -0.5% 27.233 -0.5% 27.240 -0.5%
Q4** 30.699 2.7% 30.851 3.0% 30.310 1.9%
Year 112.058 1.1% 112.144 1.1% 112.103 1.3%
Green figures are actual data from USDA. Blue figures are estimated using USDA data 12/28/11
*Quarter has one LESS slaughter day vs. year ago **Quarter has one MORE slaughter day vs. year ago
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
61. Price forecasts
December 2011 Hogs & Pigs Price Forecasts
Missouri ISU LMIC Paragon CME
Producer-Sold Ia-Mn Wtd. National Net
Net Price, All Avg. Base National Wtd Neg'd Price, CME Lean Hog
Methods Lean Hog 1 Avg. Base Price Wtd. Avg. Futures
1/1/12
2010 Q1 68.20 71.99 65.91 69.13 69.38**
Q2 79.54 85.18 77.04 81.89 81.42**
Q3 80.68 82.19 78.21 81.90 81.88**
Q4 69.26 68.97 67.3 67.12 68.23**
Year 74.42 77.08 82.42 75.01 75.23**
2011 Q1 80.63 78.92 78.38 80.91 81.54**
Q2 92.39 89.37 89.49 94.89 93.97**
Q3 95.74 92.31 92.71 97.61 97.49**
Q4 87.68 85.03 85.03 88.74 88.11**
Year 89.12 86.41 86.40 90.54 90.28**
2010 Q1 84 - 88 83 - 88 85 - 89 86.70
Q2 91 - 95 89 - 95 92 - 96 93.63
Q3 91 - 95 91 - 97 92 - 96 94.72
Q4 79 - 83 82 - 89 81 - 85 84.13
Year 86 - 90 86 - 92 87 - 91 89.80
1
Prior to Q2-11, ISU forecasts were Ia-Mn Live Price converted using a 75% yield **Average of CME Lean Hog Index
*Partial USDA data
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
63. Pork outlook
2012 supplies will be 1.5 – 2.5% larger
with bulk in Q2 and Q3, Q4 steady w/ „11
Weights will remain high
Prices much like „11 – mid „$90s in summer
Questions:
- Will demand hold? – Competitor prices,
economy, $US, consumers
- Is there enough finishing space for added
pigs?
- Slaughter capacity, fall „12? Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge
64. Risks
The U.S. economy
World economy
$US vs. other currencies
2012 corn and soybean crops
Oil prices – corn is hitched to it
RFS waiver/reduction plan
Export disruption
- OIE disease – unlikely but HUGE impact
- Another “swine flu” type scare
Paragon Economics, Inc.
From information, knowledge