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Market
Warsaw
Presentation
real estate
February 2010
market
Warsaw
- basic data



2
About Warsaw

    Capital of Poland, business center
    The largest city of Poland:
        1,7 mln inhabitants (metropolitan area: 2,8 mln)
        city area: 516.9 km² (metropolitan area: 6,100 km²)




Warsaw

               Central
               Business
3              District
Warsaw commercial real estate market in figures
(4Q 2009)

    3 248 000 m²
    of office space


    1 600 000 m²
    of retail space


    2 483 000 m²
    of industrial space


    20 680
    accommodation places
    in 10 650
    hotel rooms



4
Warsaw
office
market

5
Warsaw Office Market




                   Warsaw stock in 2009

          3 248 197 m²                                                                  Rents and Vacancy Rates in CBD and NCL in Warsaw
                                                                             € 35,00                                                                21%

                                                                             € 30,00                                                                18%

                        Stock in Warsaw (in m²)                              € 25,00                                                                15%
4000000                                                           3404197
                                                      3 248 197              € 20,00                                                                12%
                                          2 978 904
                              2 707 819
3000000   2 376 769 2 557 136
                                                                             € 15,00                                                                9%

2000000
                                                                             € 10,00                                                                6%

1000000                                                                       € 5,00                                                                3%

      0                                                                       € 0,00                                                                0%

            2005      2006      2007        2008        2009       2010*               2005      2006        2007   2008      2009       2010*
                                                                                                                                         forecast
                                                                  forecast
                                                                                          Prime rents CBD             Prime rents NCL
                                                                                          Vacancy rate CBD            Vacancy rate NCL

6
Key Office Projects in Warsaw




Wolf Marszałkowska, Warsaw        Business Garden, Warsaw                            Marynarska Business Park, Warsaw
Developer: Wolf Immobilien        Developer: Inter IKEA Group – SwedeCenter          Client: Aberdeen
Total space: 14,400 m²            Total space: 90,000 m²                             Total area: 86,600 m²




Platinium Business Park, Warsaw   Metropolitan, Warsaw                Wilanów Office Park, Warsaw
Developer: GTC                    Client: Aberdeen                    Investor / Developer: Polnord Warszawa
Total space: 45,000 m²            Total space: 69,300 m²              Total space: 169,000 m²



7
Warsaw
retail
market
8
Warsaw Retail Market



                          Shopping centres in Warsaw (in m²)
                                       73500
80000
60000
                                                                                52 650      Warsaw stock in 2009
                                                                     33 000


                                                                                           1 600 000 m²
40000        17000
                            7000                     12 000
20000
         0
              2005          2006       2007          2008            2009        2010*
                                                                                forecast




                       Prime rents in shopping centres in Warsaw
                                    (EUR/m²/month)

    90                                                          83              81
    80                         75              75

    70         65

    60

    50
             4Q 2007         2Q 2008       4Q 2008            2Q 2009         4Q 2009




9
Key Retail Projects in Poland




     Galeria Katowicka, Katowice     IKEA Port Łódź, Łódź                              Złote Tarasy, Warsaw
     Developer: Neinver/PKP          Developer: Inter IKEA Centre Polska               Developer: ING Real Estate
     GLA: 52,000 m²                  GLA: 100,000 m²                                   GLA: 63,500 m²




     Galeria Malta, Poznań         Galeria Słoneczna, Radom                Wola Park, Warsaw
     Developer: Neinver            Developer : AIG / Lincoln               Developer: Wola Park
     GLA: 53,000 m²                GLA: 40,000 m²                          GLA: 72,846 m²


10
Warsaw industrial market
 11
Warsaw Industrial Market

                                                                              Warsaw stock in 2009

                                                                       2 483 000 m²


                          Supply and demand in Warsaw (in m²)
       500 000
       450 000
       400 000
       350 000
       300 000
       250 000
       200 000
       150 000
       100 000
        50 000
            0
                 2005       2006            2007        2008           2009           2010* forecast
                        Annual supply - Warsaw city     Annual supply - Warsaw region
                        Annual demand - Warsaw region   Annual demand - Warsaw city


12
Key Industrial Projects in Poland




     ProLogis Park Błonie II, Błonie                                                  ProLogis Park Sochaczew, Sochaczew
                                         Europolis Park Poland Center,
     Developer: ProLogis                                                              Developer: ProLogis
                                         Piotrków Trybunalski
     Tenant: Antalis                                                                  Tenant: Procter & Gamble, DHL
                                         Developer: Europolis Tenant: FM Logistic
     Size: 52,000 m²                                                                  Size: 100,390 m²
                                         Size: 35,000 m²




     ProLogis Park Wrocław IV, Wrocław   Panattoni Park Wrocław, Wrocław      Panattoni Poznań, Poznań
     Developer: ProLogis                 Developer: Panattoni                 Developer: Panattoni
     Tenant: NG2                         Tenant: Hemmersbach                  Tenant: Hennes&Mauritz, Hellmann, Piotr i Paweł
     Size: 10,800 m²                     Size: 8,000 m²                       Size: 127,000 m²

13
Hotels



14
Warsaw Hospitality Market

                                  Key development factors:
                                             organisation of the European Football Championships in 2012 –
                                             expected increase of tourists over 2 to 4 years period after championships
                                             business concentration – demand generated mainly by corporate clients
                                             potential niche in the economy class hotel sector
                                             potential in the construction of hotels near airports and railway stations


                                                                                                                                                                         20 680 accommodation places
                                           30000
                                                                         Hospitality market in Warsaw
                                                                                                                                                90
                                                                                                                                                                            10 650 hotel rooms
number of rooms and accommodation places




                                                                                                                                                80
                                           25000
                                                                                                                                                70

                                           20000                                                                                                60                                    Number of hotels in Warsaw in 2009




                                                                                                                                                     number of hotels
                                                                                                                                                50                      25                             22
                                           15000
                                                                                                                                                40                      20                  16
                                           10000                                                                                                30                      15
                                                                                                                                                                               9                                            10
                                                                                                                                                20                      10                                        6
                                           5000
                                                                                                                                                10                       5
                                              0                                                                                                 0                        0
                                                   2005    2006        2007        2008     2009         2010*         2011*           2012*
                                                                                                                                                                             1-star       2-stars    3-stars    4-stars    5-stars
                                                                                                       forecast      forecast        forecast

                                                          numebr of accommodation places   number of rooms        number of hotels

        15
Key Hospitality Projects in Poland




     Mikołajki Project Hotel, Mikołajki             Łeba Hotel, Łeba              Sheraton, Poznań
     5 stars, 152 rooms,                            3 stars, 73 rooms,            5 stars, 181 rooms,
     304 accommodation places                       186 accommodation places      360 accommodation places




     Wioślarska Hotel Project, Warsaw     Mercure Jelenia Góra, Jelenia Góra   Hilton Garden Inn Project, Kraków
     4 stars, 100 rooms,                  3 stars, 188 rooms,                  4 stars, 154 rooms,
     200 accommodation places             364 accommodation places             300 accomodation places


16
Investment



17
Investment Market

                                                     Office investment deals 2005 - 2009                                                                             Cushman & Wakefield key transactions in Poland
                            7                                                                                               2500

                            6




                                                                                                                                   Transactions annually (mln EUR)
                                                                                                                            2000
 Total cumulative (bn EUR




                            5

                                                                                                                            1500
                            4

                            3
                                                                                                                            1000

                            2
                                                                                                                            500
                            1

                            0                                                                                               0
                                 2005                 2006               2007               2008               2009
                                Total cumulative           Warsaw CBD 115,00          Warsaw NCL            Other cities
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Real estate property
                                                                                                                                                                                                 portfolio of Simon
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ivanhoe – selling 5
                                                            Prime yield 2005 - 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                 shopping centres
 11,00%
 10,00%
  9,00%
     8,00%
     7,00%
     6,00%
     5,00%
     4,00%
                                  2005                   2006                2007                2008                2009

                                                   industrial       retail          office CBD          office NCL
                                                                                                                                                                      Real estate property portfolio of Casino Group –
                                                                                                                                                                      selling 339.686 m² of space

18
Conclusion



19
Warsaw real estate market forecasts


                      supply   demand      rents      vacancy


 office market


 CBD
 NCL


 retail market


 industrial market


 hospitality market

                                        price level
20
Thank you!
21

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Обзор рынка коммерческой недвижимости Варшавы 2009

  • 3. About Warsaw Capital of Poland, business center The largest city of Poland: 1,7 mln inhabitants (metropolitan area: 2,8 mln) city area: 516.9 km² (metropolitan area: 6,100 km²) Warsaw Central Business 3 District
  • 4. Warsaw commercial real estate market in figures (4Q 2009) 3 248 000 m² of office space 1 600 000 m² of retail space 2 483 000 m² of industrial space 20 680 accommodation places in 10 650 hotel rooms 4
  • 6. Warsaw Office Market Warsaw stock in 2009 3 248 197 m² Rents and Vacancy Rates in CBD and NCL in Warsaw € 35,00 21% € 30,00 18% Stock in Warsaw (in m²) € 25,00 15% 4000000 3404197 3 248 197 € 20,00 12% 2 978 904 2 707 819 3000000 2 376 769 2 557 136 € 15,00 9% 2000000 € 10,00 6% 1000000 € 5,00 3% 0 € 0,00 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* forecast forecast Prime rents CBD Prime rents NCL Vacancy rate CBD Vacancy rate NCL 6
  • 7. Key Office Projects in Warsaw Wolf Marszałkowska, Warsaw Business Garden, Warsaw Marynarska Business Park, Warsaw Developer: Wolf Immobilien Developer: Inter IKEA Group – SwedeCenter Client: Aberdeen Total space: 14,400 m² Total space: 90,000 m² Total area: 86,600 m² Platinium Business Park, Warsaw Metropolitan, Warsaw Wilanów Office Park, Warsaw Developer: GTC Client: Aberdeen Investor / Developer: Polnord Warszawa Total space: 45,000 m² Total space: 69,300 m² Total space: 169,000 m² 7
  • 9. Warsaw Retail Market Shopping centres in Warsaw (in m²) 73500 80000 60000 52 650 Warsaw stock in 2009 33 000 1 600 000 m² 40000 17000 7000 12 000 20000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* forecast Prime rents in shopping centres in Warsaw (EUR/m²/month) 90 83 81 80 75 75 70 65 60 50 4Q 2007 2Q 2008 4Q 2008 2Q 2009 4Q 2009 9
  • 10. Key Retail Projects in Poland Galeria Katowicka, Katowice IKEA Port Łódź, Łódź Złote Tarasy, Warsaw Developer: Neinver/PKP Developer: Inter IKEA Centre Polska Developer: ING Real Estate GLA: 52,000 m² GLA: 100,000 m² GLA: 63,500 m² Galeria Malta, Poznań Galeria Słoneczna, Radom Wola Park, Warsaw Developer: Neinver Developer : AIG / Lincoln Developer: Wola Park GLA: 53,000 m² GLA: 40,000 m² GLA: 72,846 m² 10
  • 12. Warsaw Industrial Market Warsaw stock in 2009 2 483 000 m² Supply and demand in Warsaw (in m²) 500 000 450 000 400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* forecast Annual supply - Warsaw city Annual supply - Warsaw region Annual demand - Warsaw region Annual demand - Warsaw city 12
  • 13. Key Industrial Projects in Poland ProLogis Park Błonie II, Błonie ProLogis Park Sochaczew, Sochaczew Europolis Park Poland Center, Developer: ProLogis Developer: ProLogis Piotrków Trybunalski Tenant: Antalis Tenant: Procter & Gamble, DHL Developer: Europolis Tenant: FM Logistic Size: 52,000 m² Size: 100,390 m² Size: 35,000 m² ProLogis Park Wrocław IV, Wrocław Panattoni Park Wrocław, Wrocław Panattoni Poznań, Poznań Developer: ProLogis Developer: Panattoni Developer: Panattoni Tenant: NG2 Tenant: Hemmersbach Tenant: Hennes&Mauritz, Hellmann, Piotr i Paweł Size: 10,800 m² Size: 8,000 m² Size: 127,000 m² 13
  • 15. Warsaw Hospitality Market Key development factors: organisation of the European Football Championships in 2012 – expected increase of tourists over 2 to 4 years period after championships business concentration – demand generated mainly by corporate clients potential niche in the economy class hotel sector potential in the construction of hotels near airports and railway stations 20 680 accommodation places 30000 Hospitality market in Warsaw 90 10 650 hotel rooms number of rooms and accommodation places 80 25000 70 20000 60 Number of hotels in Warsaw in 2009 number of hotels 50 25 22 15000 40 20 16 10000 30 15 9 10 20 10 6 5000 10 5 0 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* 2012* 1-star 2-stars 3-stars 4-stars 5-stars forecast forecast forecast numebr of accommodation places number of rooms number of hotels 15
  • 16. Key Hospitality Projects in Poland Mikołajki Project Hotel, Mikołajki Łeba Hotel, Łeba Sheraton, Poznań 5 stars, 152 rooms, 3 stars, 73 rooms, 5 stars, 181 rooms, 304 accommodation places 186 accommodation places 360 accommodation places Wioślarska Hotel Project, Warsaw Mercure Jelenia Góra, Jelenia Góra Hilton Garden Inn Project, Kraków 4 stars, 100 rooms, 3 stars, 188 rooms, 4 stars, 154 rooms, 200 accommodation places 364 accommodation places 300 accomodation places 16
  • 18. Investment Market Office investment deals 2005 - 2009 Cushman & Wakefield key transactions in Poland 7 2500 6 Transactions annually (mln EUR) 2000 Total cumulative (bn EUR 5 1500 4 3 1000 2 500 1 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total cumulative Warsaw CBD 115,00 Warsaw NCL Other cities Real estate property portfolio of Simon Ivanhoe – selling 5 Prime yield 2005 - 2009 shopping centres 11,00% 10,00% 9,00% 8,00% 7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 industrial retail office CBD office NCL Real estate property portfolio of Casino Group – selling 339.686 m² of space 18
  • 20. Warsaw real estate market forecasts supply demand rents vacancy office market CBD NCL retail market industrial market hospitality market price level 20