1. Japan‐Russia Relations:
East Asian Power Relations
and History
December 3, 2013
Kazuhiko Togo
Kyoto Sangyo University

3. Where to start?
• March 1 2012: Putin’s Press Conference:
• (a) Enlarging Economic Relations;
(b) Resolving territorial problem
• Based on the principle of draw (HIKIWAKE);
and when elected to start (HAJIME)
• Irkutsk (2001) ○；
Koizumi (01～06)Ｘ；
Abe～Beginning of Hatoyama（06～09) ○；
Later Medvedev（09～11）X
• But nothing happened for one year

4. Belated Initiative
• Abe’s Moscow visit in April 29 2013:
• (a) Sizable businessmen to accompany; New
Investment structure; new area of investment;
energy cooperation to what extent?
• (b) 2+2 for security cooperation
• (c) “mutually acceptable solution” for peace
treaty

5. Six months have passed………
2+2 is moving ahead, November meeting
Economic cooperation not halted.
How about Territorial Problems?
July 18, Panov+Togo joint proposal to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
• “Habomai and Shikotan=transfer to Japan;
Kunashiri and Etorofu=special district
including Japan’s right for legislature”
• Road map for talks continues, but…………
•
•
•
•

6. Putin’s strategic thinking
• “Make Russia Rich and Strong”
• Surkov’s “Sovereign Democracy”; Stoluipin’s path,
Uvarov’s “narodnostj”) + Medvedev’s liberalism
• Success but contradiction inside
• Last presidency for 6 years or 12 years
• (a) Economic success needed; ensuring the
position of stable energy supplier; transforming
to value‐added economy
• (b) China: No provocation; but good relations
with neighboring countries preferred
• (c) Japan is a natural choice at the beginning of
his presidency

7. Abe’s strategic thinking (1)
• Threat from China= dealing with Deterrence
and Dialogue ○～△
• Strengthening relations with neighboring
countries, including:
• The United States△;
• KoreaＸ;
• Russia△;
• ASEAN○, Australia○, India○;
• With global perspective○

8. Abe’s strategic thinking (2)
• “Getting out from post‐war Regime”
• Abenomics: renewing Japan’s success of
Showa
• (a) Security: taking initiative, NSC, Komatsu
• (b) Historical memory: freeze his thinking
• (c) national objective: four values written in
the new basic educational law: Public good,
Nature, Culture and Tradition+ Capitalism
under Rice Plants: Is he really implementing
it?

9. Conclusion
• Thank you very much for
listening!
• www.theasanforum.org
(a) Journal, Open Forum for the long article;
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statements and the responses