Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Part Three

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Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ

Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Speaker: James D. J. Brown, Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University, Japan Campus Presentation: Japan-Russia Joint Economic Projects on the Disputed Islands: What are they good for?

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JAPAN-RUSSIA JOINT ECONOMIC
PROJECTS ON THE DISPUTED ISLANDS:
WHAT ARE THEY GOOD FOR?
James D.J. Brown
Temple University, Japan Campus
17 Oct 2019

ABE’S APPARENT PLAN FOR TWO ISLANDS PLUS
JOINT ECONOMIC PROJECTS
• Two islands:
– Agreement in Singapore in November
2018 to advance talks based on the
1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration
• “1956年宣言を基礎として平和条
約交渉を加速させる。そのことを
プーチン大統領と合意した。”
• Joint economic projects
– Agreement in Nagato in December
2016 “to commence discussions on a
special arrangement [“特別な制度”]
for undertaking joint economic
activity on the four islands”

JOINT ECONOMIC PROJECTS
• Proposed contents (Sept 2017):
– (1) Project of propagation and aquaculture of marine products
– (2) Greenhouse vegetable cultivation project
– (3) Development of tours based on the islands’ features
– (4) Introduction of wind-power generation
– (5) Garbage volume reduction measures
• Joint survey visits:
– June 2017, October 2017, Oct. 2018

LEGAL OBSTACLES
• Questions of legal jurisdiction, customs, sanitary and
phytosanitary standards etc.
• Questions of the visa-free framework to permit Japanese to
travel to the islands for economic purposes.
• Narrowing of the initial joint econ projects to waste management
and tourism:
– Agreement in Osaka in June 2019 to conduct pilot projects by end of 2019

PILOT PROJECTS
• Reciprocal visits by waste management experts
– Visit by Russian officials to Nemuro in Aug.
– Japanese officials visited Kunashir in Sept.
• Pilot trip to the disputed islands for Japanese tourists
– Initially scheduled for 9-16 Oct but postponed at last minute by the
Russian side.
– Possibly to be rescheduled for 27 Oct to 3 Nov.
• Approx. 50 Japanese tourists and officials, paying ¥340,000 each.
• Visit to include 2 days in NE Hokkaido, then trip by boat to Kunashir and Iturup,
where the tourists will visit an Orthodox church, museum, and hot springs.

PROBLEMS
• The legal questions have not been resolved
– Lavrov: “We cannot agree to introduction on our territory of a jurisdiction that
is not based on Russian law.” (Aug. 2019)
– The pilot tourism trip is being conducted under the humanitarian visa-free
framework as a one-off.
– Japanese mistake to proceed with discussing the contents of the projects before
the legal framework was agreed.
• The benefits to the community in NE Hokkaido are not apparent.
• Japan appears to have miscalculated the enthusiasm of local Russians
for Japanese projects on the islands.
• Russia is proceeding to develop the islands without Japan.
– Opening of Russia’s largest fish-processing plant on Shikotan in Sept 2019

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Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Part Three

1. JAPAN-RUSSIA JOINT ECONOMIC PROJECTS ON THE DISPUTED ISLANDS: WHAT ARE THEY GOOD FOR? James D.J. Brown Temple University, Japan Campus 17 Oct 2019

2. ABE’S APPARENT PLAN FOR TWO ISLANDS PLUS JOINT ECONOMIC PROJECTS • Two islands: – Agreement in Singapore in November 2018 to advance talks based on the 1956 Japan-Soviet Joint Declaration • “1956年宣言を基礎として平和条約交渉を加速させる。そのことをプーチン大統領と合意した。” • Joint economic projects – Agreement in Nagato in December 2016 “to commence discussions on a special arrangement [“特別な制度”] for undertaking joint economic activity on the four islands”

3. JOINT ECONOMIC PROJECTS • Proposed contents (Sept 2017): – (1) Project of propagation and aquaculture of marine products – (2) Greenhouse vegetable cultivation project – (3) Development of tours based on the islands’ features – (4) Introduction of wind-power generation – (5) Garbage volume reduction measures • Joint survey visits: – June 2017, October 2017, Oct. 2018

4. LEGAL OBSTACLES • Questions of legal jurisdiction, customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards etc. • Questions of the visa-free framework to permit Japanese to travel to the islands for economic purposes. • Narrowing of the initial joint econ projects to waste management and tourism: – Agreement in Osaka in June 2019 to conduct pilot projects by end of 2019

5. PILOT PROJECTS • Reciprocal visits by waste management experts – Visit by Russian officials to Nemuro in Aug. – Japanese officials visited Kunashir in Sept. • Pilot trip to the disputed islands for Japanese tourists – Initially scheduled for 9-16 Oct but postponed at last minute by the Russian side. – Possibly to be rescheduled for 27 Oct to 3 Nov. • Approx. 50 Japanese tourists and officials, paying ¥340,000 each. • Visit to include 2 days in NE Hokkaido, then trip by boat to Kunashir and Iturup, where the tourists will visit an Orthodox church, museum, and hot springs.

6. PROBLEMS • The legal questions have not been resolved – Lavrov: “We cannot agree to introduction on our territory of a jurisdiction that is not based on Russian law.” (Aug. 2019) – The pilot tourism trip is being conducted under the humanitarian visa-free framework as a one-off. – Japanese mistake to proceed with discussing the contents of the projects before the legal framework was agreed. • The benefits to the community in NE Hokkaido are not apparent. • Japan appears to have miscalculated the enthusiasm of local Russians for Japanese projects on the islands. • Russia is proceeding to develop the islands without Japan. – Opening of Russia’s largest fish-processing plant on Shikotan in Sept 2019

7. WHAT ARE THEY GOOD FOR?

Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Part Three

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