Michael Cucek: Abe Shinzo and the LDP in 2013: A New Era of Stability? Swept into the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party as a second place finisher and elected prime minister in a constitutionally suspect election where millions of voters abstained in disgust, Abe Shinzo starts his second term on what would seem unstable and unforgiving terms. With a risk-taking economic growth plan and a social agenda out of step with the values of many Japanese, Abe is throwing away the rule book on the role a highly indebted government can play in leading an aging and cautious population. Despite the adverse circumstances, Abe Shinzo seems to be doing well in his early weeks in office, with high poll ratings and significant support from the political, business and media establishments. He looks on course to lead his party to victory in the summer House of Councillors election and break the cycle of an annual rotation of prime ministers. How stable is the Abe administration and program? What are the issues that can derail its progression? What changes should we expect after the House of Councillors election?

1. Outlook for the Abe Cabinet
and the 2013 House of Councillors Election
Michael Cucek
Research Associate, MIT Center for International Studies
shisakublog@gmail.com

3. Nikkei 225 – 6 Months

4. USD in Yen

5. New Bank of Japan Governor
Kuroda Haruhiko
Nominated 28 February 2013

6. Supplementary Budget Vote Passes on 26 February 2013
Voting in favor Voting against
LDP DPJ *
New Komeito Your Party
Japan Restoration Party Socialists
People’s New Party Life *
DJP defector (1)
Midori no Kaze (4) Abstaining
Independents (3) DPJ defector (1)
Life (1)

7. Cutting A Deal 1
Hamada Kazuo Noda Takeshi
Resigned from PNP Resigned from PNP
27 February 2013 27 February 2013

8. Cutting A Deal 2
Tanioka Kuniko
Midori no Kaze

9. Popularity of Cabinets - Comparative
Source: Sankei Shimbun

10. Which party will you vote for in the House of Councillors
Proportional Vote?
LDP 43.3
JRA/JRP 13.0
DPJ 7.6
New Komeito 3.5
Your Party 5.2
JCP 2.6
SDP 0.9
Life 0.5
New Renaissance 0.4
Midori no kaze 0.1
Other parties 7.2
Don’t know 15.7
Source: Sankei Shimbun

11. House of Councillors Election Outlook
House of Councillors caucuses as of 28 February 2013
Party Proportional District Total in Play Total
DPJ 15 30 45 87*
LDP 13 22 35 83
New Komeito 7 3 10 19
Your Party 0 2 2 10
Life 3 3 6 8
Communist 3 0 3 6
SDP 2 0 2 4
JRA/JRP 1 1 2 3
PNP** 1 0 1 2
Renaissance 1 1 0 2
Independents 1 3 4 5
Source: House of Councillors

12. What Could Go Wrong ?

13. What Could Go Wrong ?
• Reversal of Market Sentiment

14. Nikkei 225 – 6 Months

15. Nikkei 225 – Five Year

16. Tokyo Mothers

17. What Could Go Wrong ?
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals

18. What Could Go Wrong ?
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International incident

19. What Could Go Wrong ?
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International incident
• Internal dissension

20. What Could Go Wrong ?
• Reversal of Market Sentiment
• Scandals
• International incident
• Internal dissension
• Policy overreach

21. What is likely to go right?
• Moribund DPJ

22. What is likely to go right?
• Moribund DPJ
• A by-passed JRA/JRP

23. Results of Proportional Vote - 16 December 2012
LDP 16,624,457
JRA/JRP 12,262,228
DPJ 9,628,653
New Komeito 7,116,474
Your Party 5,245,586
JCP 3,689,159
Tomorrow 3,423,915
SDP 1,420,790
Nippon Daichi 346,848
New Renaissance 134,718
PNP 70,847
Source: Tokyo Shimbun

24. What is likely to go right?
• Moribund DPJ
• A by-passed JRA/JRP
• Proper policy mix

25. What is likely to go right?
• Moribund DPJ
• A by-passed JRA/JRP
• Proper policy mix
• The Third Way

26. 終