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Prof. Dr.
F. Cankat Tulunay
Honorary President of EACPT
TURKISH TYPE
PHARMACOECONOMY
Pharmacoeconomic analysis

 Clinical trials              • Pharmacoeconomic
                              evaluation is more
                              concerned about what
• Clinical trials evaluate    happens in “real life”.
the efficacy and safety
of therapies                  • Pharmacoeconomic study

• Clinical trial focuses on
                              is more interested in
medical indicators (eg.       effectiveness
Blood pressure level)         • Pharmacoeconomic study
• Intensive monitoring is     measure differnt outcomes
necessary                     (resource consumption,
                              productivity, OoL etc)
  Can  it work? = Efficacy (clinical trials)
  Does it work in reality? =
   Effectiveness (observational studies)
  Is it worth doing it, compared to
   other things we could do with the
   same money?
    = Cost-effectiveness
    = Efficiency

    =Value for money
PROBLEM: where is the threshold?

•  HISTORICAL 50,000$ per QALY:
   = Annual cost of caring for a dialysis patient

•  PUBLISHED THRESHOLDS
   –  Vary between 10,000 and 100,000 $ per QALY


•  WHO: GDP per capita (e.g. Belgium = €29000)

•  TURKEY: 24.000 $ (2 GDP) (F.C.TULUNAY)
                                                    6
The criteria for adopting a
      technology or drug
•  Reimbursing at a given price is generally
   based on 6 criteria
 a)  Added therapeutical value
 b)  Safety and tolerance
 c)  Cost-effectiveness
 d)  Budget impact
 e)  Medical and therapeutical need
 f)  Industrial policy
Value based pricing




                      8
Value based pricing?
ICER = (total cost A- total cost B) / rQALY (A –B)
à rQALY (A –B)* ICER = tot cost A - tot cost B
à rQALY (A –B)* ICER + tot cost B = tot cost A

tot cost A = Drug cost A + Adm c A + AEc A ....

Drug cost A = (rQALY (A –B)* ICER + tot cost B) -
           Adm c A - AEc A ....

                                                      9
Drugs:
 "     Same mechanisms of action
 "     Mainly me too molecules
      (AceIs, ARBs, Calcium CBs, Statins, PPIs, Biphosphonates,
      Cholinesterase inhibitors, SSRIs, etc)

 "     Same indication
 "     Similar safety outcomes
 "     Different price       F. Cankat Tulunay, 2008
Advantages:
 "   Significant      amount of saving
   "   Significant   support to generic drugs.
 "   Industry
           will know the
  reimbursement band in advance..
   "   They  will not try to push regulatory bodies
   "   Especially small companies will not try to
       find “me too” molecules       F. Cankat Tulunay, 2008
•  ACE INHIBITORS: (26)       –    Moeksipril HCl
   –    Benazepril HCl        –    Perindopril
   –    Delapril              –    Perindopril erbumin
   –    Delapril HCl          –    Perindopril arginin
   –    Enalapril             –    Ramipril
   –    Enalapril maleat      –    Silazapril
   –    Fosinopril sodium     –    Spirapril
   –    Imidapril             –    Spirapril HCl
   –    Imidapril HCl         –    Temokapril
   –    Kaptopril             –    Temokapril Hcl
   –    KinaprilHCl           –    Trandolapril
   –    Lisinopril            –    Zofenopril Ca.
   –    Lisinopril dihidrat   –    Zofenopril
BRAND	
           INN+DDD	
         PACK.SIZE	
     PACK. PRICE	
     DDD TL	
  
 kaptoril	
      kaptopril25	
           50	
              5,9	
         0,11	
  
  kapril	
       kaptopril25	
                            5,63	
         0,12	
  
                                                                                       Reimbursement
                                         48	
  
 sinopril	
       lisinopril10	
         30	
              6,4	
         0,21	
  

                                                                                          Band for
vasolapril	
      enalapril10	
          20	
             4,62	
         0,23	
  
  enalap	
        enalapril10	
          20	
              4,9	
         0,24	
  
 enapril	
        enalapril10	
          20	
             4,91	
         0,24	
  
 konveril	
       enalapril10	
          20	
             5,67	
         0,28	
  
 Blokace	
         ramipril5	
           30	
            12,62	
         0,42	
  
sandace	
          ramipril5	
           28	
            11,74	
         0,42	
  
   delix	
         ramipril5	
           28	
            13,87	
         0,49	
  
kinateva	
        kinapril20	
           20	
             9,04	
         0,52	
  
  rilace	
        lisinopril10	
         28	
            15,38	
         0,55	
  
 Acuital	
       kinalapril20	
          20	
            11,35	
         0,56	
  
 renitec	
        enalapril10	
          20	
            12,86	
         0,64	
  
  zestril	
       lisinopril10	
         28	
            17,86	
         0,64	
  
 forsace	
       fosinopril20	
          20	
            14,67	
         0,73	
  
inhibace	
       silazapril2,5	
         28	
            21,05	
         0,75	
      • Mean= 0.55 + 0.06 TL
 gopten	
        trandolapril2	
         28	
            23,52	
         0,84	
  
 univasc	
       moeksipril15	
          20	
            17,49	
         0,87	
      • Mean+ SD= 0.55+0.29=
 cibacen	
       benazepril10	
          28	
            25,06	
         0,9	
                        0.84 TL
monopril	
       fosinopril20	
          20	
            18,33	
         0,91	
  
 coversil	
      perindopril5	
                          28,93	
         0,96	
  
                                                                                     • Median= 0.55 TL
                                         30	
  
zoprotec	
       zofenopril30	
          28	
            30,47	
         1,1	
  
      	
                 	
                	
           MEAN	
         0.55 TL	
  
                                                                                     • Geometric mean= 0.46 TL




                                                                                          F.C. Tulunay, 2009
BRAND	
           INN+DDD	
         PACK.SIZE	
     PACK. PRICE	
     DDD TL	
      IMS	
  2008	
  YTL	
     Total: 96.516.867
 kaptoril	
      kaptopril25	
           50	
              5,9	
         0,11	
         364,573	
              64.3 mil dolar
  kapril	
       kaptopril25	
           48	
             5,63	
         0,12	
         772,131	
  
 sinopril	
       lisinopril10	
         30	
              6,4	
         0,21	
        1,724,681	
  
vasolapril	
      enalapril10	
          20	
             4,62	
         0,23	
         120.512	
  
  enalap	
        enalapril10	
          20	
              4,9	
         0,24	
          49,155	
  
 enapril	
        enalapril10	
          20	
             4,91	
         0,24	
        2,114,173	
              27.810.000
 konveril	
       enalapril10	
          20	
             5,67	
         0,28	
         268,246	
  
                                                                                                               18.5 mil dolar
 Blokace	
         ramipril5	
           30	
            12,62	
         0,42	
        1,121,249	
  
sandace	
          ramipril5	
           28	
            11,74	
         0,42	
              ?	
  
   delix	
         ramipril5	
           28	
            13,87	
         0,49	
       17,746,026	
  
kinateva	
        kinapril20	
           20	
             9,04	
         0,52	
              ?	
  
  rilace	
        lisinopril10	
         28	
            15,38	
         0,55	
        1,147,843	
  
 Acuital	
       kinalapril20	
          20	
            11,35	
         0,56	
        2,381,412	
  
 renitec	
        enalapril10	
          20	
            12,86	
         0,64	
         199,995	
  
  zestril	
       lisinopril10	
         28	
            17,86	
         0,64	
              0	
  
 forsace	
       fosinopril20	
          20	
            14,67	
         0,73	
          ?2008	
  
inhibace	
       silazapril2,5	
         28	
            21,05	
         0,75	
        7,584,019	
  
 gopten	
        trandolapril2	
         28	
            23,52	
         0,84	
        5,995,584	
  
 univasc	
       moeksipril15	
          20	
            17,49	
         0,87	
           8,727	
  
                                                                                                                 45 MİL.
 cibacen	
       benazepril10	
          28	
            25,06	
         0,9	
          104,720	
                DOLAR
monopril	
       fosinopril20	
          20	
            18,33	
         0,91	
        3,461,346	
  
 coversil	
      perindopril5	
          30	
            28,93	
         0,96	
       36,664,923	
  
zoprotec	
       zofenopril30	
          28	
            30,47	
         1,1	
        12,687,519	
  
      	
                 	
                	
           MEAN	
         0.55 TL	
      68,706,833	
  




                                                                                            F.C. Tulunay, 2009
İlaç       Etken             Doz           Fiyat             tablet no   DDD/TL              BİPHOSPHANATE
Vegabon    Alendronat        70 mg/hafta            78,36       12                0,93
Vegabon    Alendronat        70 mg/hafta            27,99       4                 1,00
Bonacton   Ibandronic asid   70 mg                  31.94       4                 1,14
Bonemax    Alendronat        70 mg/hafta            31,94       4                 1,14
Andante    Alendronat        70mg/hft               31,94       4                 1,14
Osalen     Alendronat        70mg/hft               31,94       4                 1,14
Osteomax   Alendronat        70mg/hft               31,94       4                 1,14
Andante    Alendronat        10mg/gün               32,86       28                1,17      REIMBURSMENT
Andante    Alendronat        70mg/hft               99,72       12                1,18          BAND
Vegabon    Alendronat        10 mg/gün              33,07       28                1,18

Osalen     Alendronat        70 mg/hafta     99,74             12             1,19
Fosamax    Alendronat        10 mg/gün              39,92       28                1,43
Fosamax    Alendronat        70mg/hft               39,92       4                 1,43
Arilex     Risendronate      35 mg                 126.68       12                1,51
Arilex     Risendronate      35 mg                  45,22       4                 1,62
Bonviva    İbandronik asit   150 mg                 154,66      3                 1,72
Goyart     Risendronate      35 mg/hafta            50,43       4                 1,80
Actonel    Risendronate      150mg/ay              173.25       6                 1,93
Actonel    Risedronate       5 mg/gün               55,50       28                1,98
Actonel    Risendronate      35mg/hafta             56.73       4                 2,02


AVERAGE                                                                    1,39


                                                                                         F.C. Tulunay, 2009
Critical Drug Evaluation
 of New Cancer Drugs
    The Scottish Experience



                               Prof Ken Paterson
          Chair – Scottish Medicines Consortium
                      Berlin – 18 February 2010
New Anti-Cancer Medicines
► Considerable       pent-up demand
  §  Patients
  §  Clinicians
► Much    media interest
  §  “miracle drugs”, “life-saving treatment”
► Often   political interest
  §  …especially if threat not to make drug available
► Legitimate       interest from pharma
  §  Keen to sell drug and boost share price/profile
Does some ‘Hype’ Matter?
► May  raise false hopes
► Often fails to represent the downside of
  treatment
► May distort priority setting in health-care
  §  Use of ineffective therapy
  §  Failure to adopt new, effective therapy
► Subverts
         true evidence-based practice
► How good are new anti-cancer drugs?
  §  …and how hard is it to know this?
Scottish Medicines Consortium
► Rapidhealth technology assessment of all
  new drugs – established 2002
  §  Unique position in world new-drug HTA
► Manufacturer     makes the case for use –
  §  Clinical effectiveness
  §  Cost-effectiveness
► Cost-utilityanalysis (cost per QALY) the
  preferred approach
► Analysis of QALYs only (not cost)
Why QALYs?
► Can(should) capture all the benefits and
 adverse effects of the medicine in question
  §  Survival gain (or loss)
  §  Improvement in quality of life from treatment
  §  Reduction in quality of life from adverse events
  §  Impact on quality of life of treatment protocol
  §  Appropriate modelling very sensitive to change
► Allowscomparison across (and within)
 disease areas
Oncology Assessments
► Fewer RCTs per drug (median 1 v 2)
► Longer follow-up (52 wks v 12 wks)
► Acceptance rate - 67%
  §  About half with some restriction, usually to
      specialist use
► Higher   cost per QALY (£15K v £8.5K)
Special Cancer Issues - 1
► Oftenscanty phase 3 clinical data
► Complex regimens with poly-pharmacy make
  comparators hard to define
  §  RCTs often use comparators different from
      current Scottish practice
  §  May require indirect comparison
► Survival   benefits often unclear
  §  Overall v ‘progression-free’ survival
  §  Extrapolation not clear-cut
  §  Cross-over after “benefit proven” a problem
Special Cancer Issues - 2
► Quality   of life assessment difficult
  §  Impact of adverse events a problem
  §  ? revaluation of QoL near life’s end
  §  ? special benefit with low expectancy
► Increased     niching by indication
  §  …more (ultra-)orphan drugs
     ► …with   expectations of “special case”
► Rule   of Rescue - a rule??
Quality of Life
►  Are the impacts of adverse events limited to
   when they occur?
►  With 3 months to live, if you say your QoL is
   90%, is that true?
   §  Are time-trade off/standard gamble useful?
►  Is
    3 months extra life worth more if you’ve
  had the diagnosis for 3 months rather than 5
  years?
   §  ? discriminates against certain cancers?
Clinical Trial v Real World
► Are   the patients similar?
  §  ? older in real world
  §  ? less good performance status
  §  ? more co-morbidities
► Does   the drug perform equally well?
  §  ? effectiveness < efficacy
  §  ? toxicity greater in real world
► Does   this really all matter?
  §  … only if benefit - risk - cost finely balanced!
SMC and Anti-Cancer Medicines
► 61   cancer medicines reviewed
  §  36 for advanced/metastatic cancer
  §  25 for earlier/adjuvant treatment
► Median   QALY gain (over current treatment)
  §  0.38 for advanced cancer
  §  0.30 for earlier/adjuvant treatment
► Mean   QALY gain (over current treatment)
  §  0.52 for both groups
What does this Mean?
► Median   health gain
  §  6 months with quality of life 70% of normal
► Mean   health gain
  §  8-9 months with QoL 70%
► Only 6 drugs (10%) offered ≥1 QALY
► 22 drugs (36%) offered ≤0.2 QALY
  §  = ≤3 months at 70% of normal QoL
  §  Note NICE ‘end-of-life’ decision-making
Is There No Good News- 1?
► Some  of the greatest health-gains are with
 really innovative drugs –
  §  Trastuzumab – 2.4 QALYs
  §  Nilotinib – 2.1 QALYs
  §  Bortezomib – 1.1 QALYs
► Even if these are expensive, they offer good
 ‘value-for-money’
Is There No Good News – 2?
► Anti-cancer   drugs are much like other drugs
  §  Musculoskeletal (11) – 0.66 QALY
  §  Infections (33) – 0.11 QALY
  §  Endocrine (24) – 0.07 QALY
  §  Cardiovascular (33) – 0.05 QALY
  §  CNS and pain (55) – 0.04 QALY
► Newdrugs in general are not as valuable as
 many would like to think!
How Good are New Drugs?
► 22%   offer no health gain (=me too!)
Ø 28% offer >0 – 0.1 QALY
Ø 25% offer >0.1 – 0.5 QALY
Ø 13% offer >0.5 – 1.0 QALY
Ø 12% offer >1 QALY

Median health gain (n = 281) = 0.1 QALY!!
Caveats and Criticisms
►  Health     gain is as presented by pharma
   §  May over-estimate true gain by a factor of 2!!
   §  SMC did not always accept the QALY given
►  QALY   may not adequately capture benefits
   §  Responder v non-responder
   §  Problems with QoL assessment
►  Clinical   trial ≠ clinical practice
   §  ?possible to maximise benefit & minimise S/E
       ► …   targeted therapy the ‘Holy Grail’!
Conclusions - 1
► Assessing the real benefits of new cancer
  medicines is not easy
► New medicines generally are rarely as
  valuable as they might like to appear
► Health-gain from many new cancer
  medicines is modest
  §  …and often over-stated in media etc
► Someinnovative new drugs are breaking
 the mould
Conclusions - 2
► The introduction of new medicines needs to
  be managed to maximise risk:benefit
► Real world data on new cancer medicines
  are urgently needed
  §  … to see whether targeting really works!
  §  … to get real advances to patients quickly
  §  … to minimise burden on (or harm to) patients
    ► …   and costs to health-care systems
► Realinnovation has nothing to fear from
 such assessment!
WHAT DO WE NEED!
•  A system without corruption
•  A transperant system
•  To prevent waste / wastefulness
•  To be rational
•  To realize that we all are sailing the same
   boat
•  To trust each other
•  Harmonization on all subjects (patient
   handout forms, education, etc.)
WHAT DO WE NEED!
•   Pharmacoeconomic analysis of a treatment
•   Not to have reimburse “drug is not a drug”
•   Appropriate pricing according to the purchasing
   power
•   Medications to be available to everyone (EQUITY)
•   Standardized diagnosis-treatment guidelines
•   Standardized education at all universities
•   Clinical, pharmacological and epidemiological research
•   Independent "Govermental Drug Institution” and
   “independent reimbursment institution”
Oncopharmacoeconomy ii, Prof. Dr. F. Cankat Tulunay

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Oncopharmacoeconomy ii, Prof. Dr. F. Cankat Tulunay

  • 1. Prof. Dr. F. Cankat Tulunay Honorary President of EACPT
  • 2.
  • 4. Pharmacoeconomic analysis Clinical trials • Pharmacoeconomic evaluation is more concerned about what • Clinical trials evaluate happens in “real life”. the efficacy and safety of therapies • Pharmacoeconomic study • Clinical trial focuses on is more interested in medical indicators (eg. effectiveness Blood pressure level) • Pharmacoeconomic study • Intensive monitoring is measure differnt outcomes necessary (resource consumption, productivity, OoL etc)
  • 5.   Can it work? = Efficacy (clinical trials)   Does it work in reality? = Effectiveness (observational studies)   Is it worth doing it, compared to other things we could do with the same money?   = Cost-effectiveness   = Efficiency   =Value for money
  • 6. PROBLEM: where is the threshold? •  HISTORICAL 50,000$ per QALY: = Annual cost of caring for a dialysis patient •  PUBLISHED THRESHOLDS –  Vary between 10,000 and 100,000 $ per QALY •  WHO: GDP per capita (e.g. Belgium = €29000) •  TURKEY: 24.000 $ (2 GDP) (F.C.TULUNAY) 6
  • 7. The criteria for adopting a technology or drug •  Reimbursing at a given price is generally based on 6 criteria a)  Added therapeutical value b)  Safety and tolerance c)  Cost-effectiveness d)  Budget impact e)  Medical and therapeutical need f)  Industrial policy
  • 9. Value based pricing? ICER = (total cost A- total cost B) / rQALY (A –B) à rQALY (A –B)* ICER = tot cost A - tot cost B à rQALY (A –B)* ICER + tot cost B = tot cost A tot cost A = Drug cost A + Adm c A + AEc A .... Drug cost A = (rQALY (A –B)* ICER + tot cost B) - Adm c A - AEc A .... 9
  • 10. Drugs: "  Same mechanisms of action "  Mainly me too molecules (AceIs, ARBs, Calcium CBs, Statins, PPIs, Biphosphonates, Cholinesterase inhibitors, SSRIs, etc) "  Same indication "  Similar safety outcomes "  Different price F. Cankat Tulunay, 2008
  • 11. Advantages: "   Significant amount of saving "   Significant support to generic drugs. "   Industry will know the reimbursement band in advance.. "   They will not try to push regulatory bodies "   Especially small companies will not try to find “me too” molecules F. Cankat Tulunay, 2008
  • 12. •  ACE INHIBITORS: (26) –  Moeksipril HCl –  Benazepril HCl –  Perindopril –  Delapril –  Perindopril erbumin –  Delapril HCl –  Perindopril arginin –  Enalapril –  Ramipril –  Enalapril maleat –  Silazapril –  Fosinopril sodium –  Spirapril –  Imidapril –  Spirapril HCl –  Imidapril HCl –  Temokapril –  Kaptopril –  Temokapril Hcl –  KinaprilHCl –  Trandolapril –  Lisinopril –  Zofenopril Ca. –  Lisinopril dihidrat –  Zofenopril
  • 13. BRAND   INN+DDD   PACK.SIZE   PACK. PRICE   DDD TL   kaptoril   kaptopril25   50   5,9   0,11   kapril   kaptopril25   5,63   0,12   Reimbursement 48   sinopril   lisinopril10   30   6,4   0,21   Band for vasolapril   enalapril10   20   4,62   0,23   enalap   enalapril10   20   4,9   0,24   enapril   enalapril10   20   4,91   0,24   konveril   enalapril10   20   5,67   0,28   Blokace   ramipril5   30   12,62   0,42   sandace   ramipril5   28   11,74   0,42   delix   ramipril5   28   13,87   0,49   kinateva   kinapril20   20   9,04   0,52   rilace   lisinopril10   28   15,38   0,55   Acuital   kinalapril20   20   11,35   0,56   renitec   enalapril10   20   12,86   0,64   zestril   lisinopril10   28   17,86   0,64   forsace   fosinopril20   20   14,67   0,73   inhibace   silazapril2,5   28   21,05   0,75   • Mean= 0.55 + 0.06 TL gopten   trandolapril2   28   23,52   0,84   univasc   moeksipril15   20   17,49   0,87   • Mean+ SD= 0.55+0.29= cibacen   benazepril10   28   25,06   0,9   0.84 TL monopril   fosinopril20   20   18,33   0,91   coversil   perindopril5   28,93   0,96   • Median= 0.55 TL 30   zoprotec   zofenopril30   28   30,47   1,1         MEAN   0.55 TL   • Geometric mean= 0.46 TL F.C. Tulunay, 2009
  • 14. BRAND   INN+DDD   PACK.SIZE   PACK. PRICE   DDD TL   IMS  2008  YTL   Total: 96.516.867 kaptoril   kaptopril25   50   5,9   0,11   364,573   64.3 mil dolar kapril   kaptopril25   48   5,63   0,12   772,131   sinopril   lisinopril10   30   6,4   0,21   1,724,681   vasolapril   enalapril10   20   4,62   0,23   120.512   enalap   enalapril10   20   4,9   0,24   49,155   enapril   enalapril10   20   4,91   0,24   2,114,173   27.810.000 konveril   enalapril10   20   5,67   0,28   268,246   18.5 mil dolar Blokace   ramipril5   30   12,62   0,42   1,121,249   sandace   ramipril5   28   11,74   0,42   ?   delix   ramipril5   28   13,87   0,49   17,746,026   kinateva   kinapril20   20   9,04   0,52   ?   rilace   lisinopril10   28   15,38   0,55   1,147,843   Acuital   kinalapril20   20   11,35   0,56   2,381,412   renitec   enalapril10   20   12,86   0,64   199,995   zestril   lisinopril10   28   17,86   0,64   0   forsace   fosinopril20   20   14,67   0,73   ?2008   inhibace   silazapril2,5   28   21,05   0,75   7,584,019   gopten   trandolapril2   28   23,52   0,84   5,995,584   univasc   moeksipril15   20   17,49   0,87   8,727   45 MİL. cibacen   benazepril10   28   25,06   0,9   104,720   DOLAR monopril   fosinopril20   20   18,33   0,91   3,461,346   coversil   perindopril5   30   28,93   0,96   36,664,923   zoprotec   zofenopril30   28   30,47   1,1   12,687,519         MEAN   0.55 TL   68,706,833   F.C. Tulunay, 2009
  • 15. İlaç Etken Doz Fiyat tablet no DDD/TL BİPHOSPHANATE Vegabon Alendronat 70 mg/hafta 78,36 12 0,93 Vegabon Alendronat 70 mg/hafta 27,99 4 1,00 Bonacton Ibandronic asid 70 mg 31.94 4 1,14 Bonemax Alendronat 70 mg/hafta 31,94 4 1,14 Andante Alendronat 70mg/hft 31,94 4 1,14 Osalen Alendronat 70mg/hft 31,94 4 1,14 Osteomax Alendronat 70mg/hft 31,94 4 1,14 Andante Alendronat 10mg/gün 32,86 28 1,17 REIMBURSMENT Andante Alendronat 70mg/hft 99,72 12 1,18 BAND Vegabon Alendronat 10 mg/gün 33,07 28 1,18 Osalen Alendronat 70 mg/hafta 99,74 12 1,19 Fosamax Alendronat 10 mg/gün 39,92 28 1,43 Fosamax Alendronat 70mg/hft 39,92 4 1,43 Arilex Risendronate 35 mg 126.68 12 1,51 Arilex Risendronate 35 mg 45,22 4 1,62 Bonviva İbandronik asit 150 mg 154,66 3 1,72 Goyart Risendronate 35 mg/hafta 50,43 4 1,80 Actonel Risendronate 150mg/ay 173.25 6 1,93 Actonel Risedronate 5 mg/gün 55,50 28 1,98 Actonel Risendronate 35mg/hafta 56.73 4 2,02 AVERAGE 1,39 F.C. Tulunay, 2009
  • 16. Critical Drug Evaluation of New Cancer Drugs The Scottish Experience Prof Ken Paterson Chair – Scottish Medicines Consortium Berlin – 18 February 2010
  • 17. New Anti-Cancer Medicines ► Considerable pent-up demand §  Patients §  Clinicians ► Much media interest §  “miracle drugs”, “life-saving treatment” ► Often political interest §  …especially if threat not to make drug available ► Legitimate interest from pharma §  Keen to sell drug and boost share price/profile
  • 18. Does some ‘Hype’ Matter? ► May raise false hopes ► Often fails to represent the downside of treatment ► May distort priority setting in health-care §  Use of ineffective therapy §  Failure to adopt new, effective therapy ► Subverts true evidence-based practice ► How good are new anti-cancer drugs? §  …and how hard is it to know this?
  • 19. Scottish Medicines Consortium ► Rapidhealth technology assessment of all new drugs – established 2002 §  Unique position in world new-drug HTA ► Manufacturer makes the case for use – §  Clinical effectiveness §  Cost-effectiveness ► Cost-utilityanalysis (cost per QALY) the preferred approach ► Analysis of QALYs only (not cost)
  • 20. Why QALYs? ► Can(should) capture all the benefits and adverse effects of the medicine in question §  Survival gain (or loss) §  Improvement in quality of life from treatment §  Reduction in quality of life from adverse events §  Impact on quality of life of treatment protocol §  Appropriate modelling very sensitive to change ► Allowscomparison across (and within) disease areas
  • 21. Oncology Assessments ► Fewer RCTs per drug (median 1 v 2) ► Longer follow-up (52 wks v 12 wks) ► Acceptance rate - 67% §  About half with some restriction, usually to specialist use ► Higher cost per QALY (£15K v £8.5K)
  • 22. Special Cancer Issues - 1 ► Oftenscanty phase 3 clinical data ► Complex regimens with poly-pharmacy make comparators hard to define §  RCTs often use comparators different from current Scottish practice §  May require indirect comparison ► Survival benefits often unclear §  Overall v ‘progression-free’ survival §  Extrapolation not clear-cut §  Cross-over after “benefit proven” a problem
  • 23. Special Cancer Issues - 2 ► Quality of life assessment difficult §  Impact of adverse events a problem §  ? revaluation of QoL near life’s end §  ? special benefit with low expectancy ► Increased niching by indication §  …more (ultra-)orphan drugs ► …with expectations of “special case” ► Rule of Rescue - a rule??
  • 24. Quality of Life ►  Are the impacts of adverse events limited to when they occur? ►  With 3 months to live, if you say your QoL is 90%, is that true? §  Are time-trade off/standard gamble useful? ►  Is 3 months extra life worth more if you’ve had the diagnosis for 3 months rather than 5 years? §  ? discriminates against certain cancers?
  • 25. Clinical Trial v Real World ► Are the patients similar? §  ? older in real world §  ? less good performance status §  ? more co-morbidities ► Does the drug perform equally well? §  ? effectiveness < efficacy §  ? toxicity greater in real world ► Does this really all matter? §  … only if benefit - risk - cost finely balanced!
  • 26. SMC and Anti-Cancer Medicines ► 61 cancer medicines reviewed §  36 for advanced/metastatic cancer §  25 for earlier/adjuvant treatment ► Median QALY gain (over current treatment) §  0.38 for advanced cancer §  0.30 for earlier/adjuvant treatment ► Mean QALY gain (over current treatment) §  0.52 for both groups
  • 27. What does this Mean? ► Median health gain §  6 months with quality of life 70% of normal ► Mean health gain §  8-9 months with QoL 70% ► Only 6 drugs (10%) offered ≥1 QALY ► 22 drugs (36%) offered ≤0.2 QALY §  = ≤3 months at 70% of normal QoL §  Note NICE ‘end-of-life’ decision-making
  • 28. Is There No Good News- 1? ► Some of the greatest health-gains are with really innovative drugs – §  Trastuzumab – 2.4 QALYs §  Nilotinib – 2.1 QALYs §  Bortezomib – 1.1 QALYs ► Even if these are expensive, they offer good ‘value-for-money’
  • 29. Is There No Good News – 2? ► Anti-cancer drugs are much like other drugs §  Musculoskeletal (11) – 0.66 QALY §  Infections (33) – 0.11 QALY §  Endocrine (24) – 0.07 QALY §  Cardiovascular (33) – 0.05 QALY §  CNS and pain (55) – 0.04 QALY ► Newdrugs in general are not as valuable as many would like to think!
  • 30. How Good are New Drugs? ► 22% offer no health gain (=me too!) Ø 28% offer >0 – 0.1 QALY Ø 25% offer >0.1 – 0.5 QALY Ø 13% offer >0.5 – 1.0 QALY Ø 12% offer >1 QALY Median health gain (n = 281) = 0.1 QALY!!
  • 31. Caveats and Criticisms ►  Health gain is as presented by pharma §  May over-estimate true gain by a factor of 2!! §  SMC did not always accept the QALY given ►  QALY may not adequately capture benefits §  Responder v non-responder §  Problems with QoL assessment ►  Clinical trial ≠ clinical practice §  ?possible to maximise benefit & minimise S/E ► … targeted therapy the ‘Holy Grail’!
  • 32. Conclusions - 1 ► Assessing the real benefits of new cancer medicines is not easy ► New medicines generally are rarely as valuable as they might like to appear ► Health-gain from many new cancer medicines is modest §  …and often over-stated in media etc ► Someinnovative new drugs are breaking the mould
  • 33. Conclusions - 2 ► The introduction of new medicines needs to be managed to maximise risk:benefit ► Real world data on new cancer medicines are urgently needed §  … to see whether targeting really works! §  … to get real advances to patients quickly §  … to minimise burden on (or harm to) patients ► … and costs to health-care systems ► Realinnovation has nothing to fear from such assessment!
  • 34. WHAT DO WE NEED! •  A system without corruption •  A transperant system •  To prevent waste / wastefulness •  To be rational •  To realize that we all are sailing the same boat •  To trust each other •  Harmonization on all subjects (patient handout forms, education, etc.)
  • 35. WHAT DO WE NEED! •   Pharmacoeconomic analysis of a treatment •   Not to have reimburse “drug is not a drug” •   Appropriate pricing according to the purchasing power •   Medications to be available to everyone (EQUITY) •   Standardized diagnosis-treatment guidelines •   Standardized education at all universities •   Clinical, pharmacological and epidemiological research •   Independent "Govermental Drug Institution” and “independent reimbursment institution”