This document discusses MOOCs and their potential impacts on global higher education. It notes that MOOCs emerged in 2012 as a possible solution to problems in the US higher education system like rising costs and lack of accessibility. However, MOOCs also threaten the existing "factory model" of universities that treats students as consumers. While MOOCs must be free, revenue models like commercial sponsorship, open licensing, and freemium options may allow their sustainable operation. MOOCs could accelerate changes already underway in higher education and globalization may spread their influence, though barriers exist in some countries like Japan. Overall, MOOCs represent significant challenges to the current university system.

1. MOOCsとその大域的影響
MOOCs and their global impacts
(slides in English for non-Japanese speaking speakers)
土屋俊
Syun Tutiya
大学評価・学位授与機構
National Institution for Academic Degrees and University Evaluation
MOOCs と電子図書館のための国際セミナー
2013年2月24日
International Seminar on “The Future of MOOCs and Digital Library in Japan and the Globe”
February 24, 2013

2. “Global” in two senses
• Global, as opposed to ephemeral
– Impacts are not only on multimedia/Internet in
education last year, but
– on modern(= late 20th century) higher education in
general
• Global as opposed to US
– Impacts on UK
– Impacts on Asia etc
– Impacts on Japan
• Arguments for the impossibility either of J-MOOC or of
MOOC.jp
– Impacts on the future of Japan’s HE

3. Plan of the talk
1. Looking back last year – Why MOOCs now?
– Why in 2012? Why in US?
2. Self-undermining principles of modern HE and the end of
university
– Student consumerism
– “Factory” model
3. How MOOCs accelerate
– Blended learning/Flipped classroom
– For-profit universities
4. Revenue streams of free services
– Commercial sponsorship
– Open source
– Open access
– (Freemium)
5. And why the MOOCmania is global
– Why UK seems OK
– Why Japan does not seem OK

4. Todai on Coursera(released last week)

5. 2012 was the MOOC year, so let’s
consult Wikipedia(Japanese)!

6. MOOCs last year
• First occurrence of the word: 2008
– now almost a legend or myth referring to U of Prince Edwards
Island, Cormier, Athabasca, etc
– But this is just a prehistory
• Real start: 2011-12 school year
– Stanford AI, CS courses on line, each with an enrollment of
100,000, resulting in the creation of Coursera, Udacity, getting
money from VCs
– MIT and Harvard jointly edX as a non-profit
• Booming…
– increasing media coverage + stories from teachers and
learners from April/May, 2012
– EuroMOOCs like UK’s FutureLearn and Amsterdam’s
• Actually, Japan is a lot more advanced with the University
of Air, or the Open University of Japan, now. Evidence of
the impossibility of MOOCs in Japan?

7. Why MOOC in 2012?
• Virtually nothing is new
– technology is boring
– Course structure and class management are old-
fashioned
– Free online lectures have been there for long
• So why this year?
• US problems with higher education
– outcomes -- underachieving
– cost – financial burdens of students and families
• MOOC is a possibility of sustainable business
model of affordable higher educatioin
• Adaptation with conventional systems like credits

8. US situations in spite of US and other
overseas participants
• Obama’s target setting in his February 2009 address
– “All Americans should be prepared to enroll in at least one year of
higher education or job training to better prepare our workforce for a
21st century economy.”
– Public Universities reponses
– has not been achieved but not bad as of 2012, with improved
graduation rates and the percentage of 25-34 cohort with college
degrees
• But the “cost” issue has no hope
– For-profits make profit but low success rate
– Public Us raise tuition only to make up for the state budget
cuts
• “Free” is the ultimate form of inexpensiveness

9. University Strategies to Increase the
Number of Graduates
• Growth in Enrollment
• Restriction of Degree Requirements to 120 hours
• Creation of a “Graduation in Four” expectation
among students and their parents
• Attract those who leave the university with only a
small percentage of degree requirements unfilled
to complete the degree
• Reduce barriers to graduation
– Improve Advising
– Ensure that courses required for degrees are always
available
9

10. And brands!
• Stanford gave birth to two MOOC companies
– Coursera
– Udacity
• MIT is home to Open CourseWare
– Now what is the difference between MOOC&OCW?
• Both MIT and Harvard are superbrands
• Participating universities are “research universities”
in the modern American sense
• Non-US participating universities, like UCL and maby
Todai, are also brands in HE industry
• So not only free but good, maybe at least reputably

11. MOOC was the only hope
• In the context of Obama reelection
– Reflected in his State of the Union Address
• “we’ll run out of money.”
• “Some schools redesign courses to help students finish more quickly.
Some use better technology.”
• And publicly
– the California situation, remarkably
• And worldwide
– the UK reform, e.g.
– No longer can HE be dependent on states in the
continent, either, and the continent has no money
– Poor countries are much poorer
• So MOOCs ARE the only hope

12. But MOOCs will completely change HE industry
• The late 20th century model of HE
– Qualified, professional workforce needs “education”
– Society needs more and more professional workforce
– Therefore, more and more “education” is needed, to the
prosperity of HE industry, and by the same token,
– “Educated” workers are more employable, from the
personal point of view
– Hence, two justified model of HE
1. Student consumerism
2. “Factory model”

13. The Central Dogmas
1. Student consumerism
a. Students are consumers of HE as sellable service
b. Students select like consumers, having their future life in mind, in which
sense they are not only consuming but privately investing,
c. though there is no need to be loyal, which means in principle they can very
liberally pick and choose
2. Factory Model
a. HE institutions are factories, subsidized by students themselves
b. Takes in high school graduates, add value(=increased employability), and
send out to labor market
c. Efficiency(C/B) is the most important, resulting in for-profits
3. “Degree-cum-classroom” system as a locking-in mechanism, currently
and everything is efficiently tailored accordingly
a. Prepaid
b. Degrees as THE results of accumulated “credits,” which are based on
(contact) “hours”
4. All of which are inherently oxymoronic, which means the current
implementation is contingent

14. Symptoms
• Stress on student’s experience(SC)
– Students must be “satisfied”
• Stress on learning outcomes(FM)
– No quality control at the time of admission
– Degree only comprehensively guarantees quality but who knows
what graduates individually can do
• Harmonization of qualifications frameworks, limited to Europe
and SE Asia, though
– HE is more for employment than for scholarship
– Merger of HE and LLL
• Tuitions fees, newly installed and/or rising
– HE is no longer public goods, but private investment
– But if no guarantee of quality, what is it for?
– But, again, people think HE, science, technology are the only hope
for the future

15. MOOCs more than symptomize. They can
verify the contingency of so hasten the death
of “modern university”
• Technology-based
– “Open” is only possible with the Internet
– Educational technology, OCW etc in the past
• Vertical disintegration
– Platforms, teaching faculty and services can be
separate, like publishing
• Experiences from For-profits, distance education
and multimedia pedagogy
– which are abundant
– and even SNS(Facebook, Twitter, etc) may help
Thus the only hope turns out to be an evil omen

16. But how can MOOCs be sustainably free?
• MOOCs must be free, though are allowed to be
licensed for fees in some sense
• Four models for “free” provision of information
1. Commercial sponsorship model
From radio programs to TV, banner ads on Internet, and to Google-
style “Click-throughs”
2. “Open source” software model
From FSF/GNU to “Open source/Bazaar,” and to Wiki*
3. Author-pay, “Golden open access” model
PLoS ONE, eLife and PeerJ
4. “Freemium” model
Free at the start but must buy to proceed in recognition of value

17. So the questions are:
1. Can a MOOC be commercially subsidized?
– Is it a large enough user-base?
2. Can MOOCs create a market for implementation and
maintenance?
– Current university campus converted to HE “Kumon”
classrooms?
3. Can MOOCs be subsidized by TEACHERS?
– Future of researchers and “research universities”? But
currently starting MOOCs are theirs
4. Can MOOCs demonstrate (prospective) values to
noncommittal novice learners?
– Maybe not, but could do?

18. Realistically global aspects:
• UK mission to India
– with FutureLearn, BL, and five universities
– FutureLearn – Open University-founded UK MOOC
– Indian situation may accommodate them
• Todai on Coursera
– Better than none, but …
• Can there be Japanese MOOCs?
– No. Japanese language does not provide a large
enough market to a MOOC
– No. Japanese universities do not have strong enough
brand to attract teachers to their platform creations

19. Inconclusion, not “in conclusion”
• MOOC was just a boom last year
• But it’s the reality we face now, and will have
to from now on, as noticed by Todai
• The continuation of vested interests around
the current system and the rise and success of
MOOCs are mutually exclusive, so be warned
• Japan’s HE is in a very difficult trouble, but not
knowing it makes us happier than we would
be if we knew it