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Project Management
3-1
Outline
• GLOBAL COMPANY PROFILE:
BECHTEL GROUP
• THE IMPORTANCE OF PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
• PROJECT PLANNING
– The Project Manager
– Work Breakdown Structure
• PROJECT SCHEDULING
• PROJECT CONTROLLING
3-2
Outline - Continued
• PROJECT MANAGEMENT
TECHNIQUES: PERT AND CPM
– The Framework of PERT and CPM
– Network Diagrams and Approaches
– Activity on Node Example
– Determining the Project Schedule
• Forward Pass
• Backward Pass
• Calculating Slack Time and Identifying the
Critical Path(s)
3-3
Outline - Continued
– Variability in Activity Times
• Three Time Estimates in PERT
• Probability of Project Completion
• Cost-Time Tradeoffs and Project
Crashing
• A Critique of PERT and CPM
• Visual PERT/CPM Computer
Program Practice
3-4
Learning Objectives
When you complete this chapter, you
should be able to :
Identify or Define:
– Work breakdown structure
– Critical path
– AOA and AON Networks
– Forward and Backward Passes
– Variability in Activity Times
3-5
Learning Objectives – Cont..
When you complete this chapter, you
should be able to :
Describe or Explain:
– The role of the project manager
– Program evaluation and review technique
(PERT)
– Critical path method (CPM)
– Crashing a project
– The Use of MS Project
3-6
Bechtel – Case Study
• Asked by Kuwait to begin rebuilding
after Desert Storm
• 650 wells ablaze, others uncapped
• No water, electricity, food or facilities
• Land mines! Bombs! Grenades!
• Many fires inaccessible because of oil-
covered roads
3-7
Bechtel
• Project required:
– Storage, docking, and warehousing
facilities at Dubai
– 125,000 tons of equipment and supplies
– 150 kilometers of pipeline capable of
delivering 20,000,000 gallons of water per
day to the fire site
– more than 200 lagoons with 1,000,000
gals of seawater
3-8
Bechtel Other Projects
• Building 26 massive distribution centers in just two
years for the internet company Webvan Group
• Constructing 30 high-security data centers
worldwide for Equinix, Inc.
• Building and running a rail line between London
and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion)
• Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea
region to Russia ($850 million)
• Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600
million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion)
3-9
Bechtel Other Projects –
Cont.
• Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2
billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion)
• Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6
billion)
• Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand
($700 million)
• Building a highway to link the north and south of
Croatia ($303 million)
3-10
Strategic Importance of PM
• Bechtel Kuwait Project:
– 8,000 workers
– 1,000 construction professionals
– 100 medical personnel
– 2 helicopter evacuation teams
– 6 full-service dining halls
– 27,000 meals per day
– 40 bed field hospital
3-11
• Microsoft Windows XP Project:
– hundreds of programmers
– millions of lines of code
– millions of dollars cost
• Ford Redesign of Mustang Project:
– 450 member project team
– Cost $700-million
– 25% faster and 30% cheaper than
comparable project at Ford
Strategic Importance of PM
3-12
Project Characteristics
• Single unit
• Many related activities
• Difficult production planning and
inventory control
• General purpose equipment
• High labor skills
3-13
An Example
• Building construction
© 1995 Corel Corp.
3-14
An Example
• Research project
© 1995
Corel Corp. 3-15
Project Management
• Project management is the discipline of carefully
projecting or planning, organizing, motivating and
controlling resources to achieve specific goals and
meet specific success criteria.
• A project is a temporary endeavour designed to
produce a unique product, service or result with a
defined beginning and end (usually time-
constrained, and often constrained by funding
or deliverables) undertaken to meet unique goals
and objectives, typically to bring about beneficial
change or added value.
3-16
The Traditional
Approach
• A traditional phased approach identifies a sequence of steps to
be completed.
• Typical development phases of an engineering project
– initiation
– planning and design
– execution and construction
– monitoring and controlling systems
– completion and finish point
3-17
Management of Large Projects
• Planning - goal setting, project
definition, team organization
• Scheduling - relating people, money,
and supplies to specific activities and
activities to one and other
• Controlling - monitoring resources,
costs, quality, and budgets; revising
plans and shifting resources to meet
time and cost demands
3-18
Planning
Objectives
Resources
Work break-
down schedule
Organization
Scheduling
Project
activities
Start & end
times
Network
Controlling
Monitor, compare,
revise, action
Project Management Activities
3-19
Project Organization
Works Best When
• Work can be defined with a specific
goal and deadline
• The job is unique or somewhat
unfamiliar to the existing organization
• The work contains complex interrelated
tasks requiring specialized skills
• The project is temporary but critical to
the organization
3-20
Project Planning, Scheduling,
and Controlling
Project Planning
1. Setting goals
2. Defining the project
3. Tying needs into timed project
activities
4. Organizing the team
Project Scheduling
1. Tying resources to specific
activities
2. Relating activities to each other
3. Updating and revising on a
regular basis
Time/cost estimates
Budgets
Engineering diagrams
Cash flow charts
Material availability details
CPM/PERT
Gantt charts
Milestone charts
Cash flow schedules
Project Controlling
1. Monitoring resources, costs, quality,
and budgets
2. Revising and changing plans
3. Shifting resources to meet demands
Reports
• budgets
• delayed activities
• slack activities
Before Project During Project
3-21
Project Planning, Scheduling,
and Controlling
3-22
Project Planning
• Establishing objectives
• Defining project
• Creating work breakdown
structure
• Determining resources
• Forming organization
© 1995 Corel Corp.
3-23
Project Organization
• Often temporary structure
• Uses specialists from entire
company
• Headed by project manager
– Coordinates activities
– Monitors schedule
& costs
• Permanent
structure called
‘matrix organization’
Acct.
Eng. Eng.
Mkt.
Mgr.
3-24
A Sample Project Organization
Sales
President
Finance
Human
Resources
Engineering
Quality
Control
Production
Technician
Test
Engineer
Propulsion
Engineer
Physiologist
Project
Manager
Psychologist
Structural
Engineer
Inspection
Technician
Technician
Project 1
Project 2
Project
Manager
3-25
A Sample Project Organization
Sales Finance
Human
Resources
Engineering
Quality
Control
Production
Test
Engineer
Propulsion
Engineer
Technician
Project 1
Project 2
Project
Manager
Technician
Project
Manager
Structural
Engineer
Inspection
Technician
President
3-26
Mkt Oper Eng Fin
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
 
   
 

Matrix Organization
3-27
Role of Project Manager
Project Plan
and Schedule
Revisions and
Updates
Project
Manager
Project
Team
Top
Management
Resources
Performance
Reports
Information
regarding times,
costs, problems,
delays Feedback Loop
3-28
Work Breakdown Structure
1. Project
2. Major tasks in the project
3. Subtasks in the major tasks
4. Activities (or work packages) to be
completed
3-29
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
Month
Activity
Design
Build
Test
PERT
Project Scheduling
• Identifying
precedence
relationships
• Sequencing activities
• Determining activity
times & costs
• Estimating material
& worker
requirements
• Determining critical
activities 3-30
Purposes of Project Scheduling
• Shows the relationship of each activity
to others and to the whole project.
• Identifies the precedence relationships
among activities.
• Encourages the setting of realistic time
and cost estimates for each activity.
• Helps make better use of people,
money, and material resources by
identifying critical bottlenecks in the
project.
3-31
Project Management Techniques
• Gantt chart
• Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Program Evaluation &
Review Technique (PERT)
3-32
J F M A M J J
Time Period
Activity
Design
Build
Test
Gantt Chart
3-33
Service Activities for A Delta Jet
During a 60 Minute Layover
3-34
Project Control Reports
• Detailed cost breakdowns for each task
• Total program labor curves
• Cost distribution tables
• Functional cost and hour summaries
• Raw materials and expenditure
forecasts
• Variance reports
• Time analysis reports
• Work status reports
3-35
PERT and CPM
• Network techniques
• Developed in 1950’s
– CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)
– PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the
U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)
• Consider precedence relationships and
interdependencies
• Each uses a different estimate of activity
times
3-36
• Is the project on schedule, ahead of
schedule, or behind schedule?
• Is the project over or under cost budget?
• Are there enough resources available to
finish the project on time?
• If the project must be finished in less than
the scheduled amount of time, what is the
way to accomplish this at least cost?
Questions Which May Be
Addressed by PERT & CPM
3-37
Six Steps Common to PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the work
breakdown structure,
2. Develop relationships among the activities.
(Decide which activities must precede and which
must follow others.)
3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity
5. Compute the longest time path through the
network. This is called the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor,
and control the project
3-38
A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
3-39
Milwaukee General Hospital’s
Activities and Predecessors
Activity Description Immediate
Predecessors
A Build internal components -
B Modify roof and floor -
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G
3-40
AON Network for Milwaukee
General Hospital
Start
A
B
C
D
F
F
G
H
Arrows show
precedence
relationships
3-41
1
3
2 4
5
6 7
H
Inspect/Test
G
Install pollution
control device
D
Pour concrete/
Install frame
B
Modify
roof/floor
C
Construct
stack
F
Install controls
E
Buildburner
AOA Network (With Dummy
Activities) for Milwaukee General
A
Buildinternal
components
Dummy
Activity
3-42
Critical Path Analysis
• Provides activity information
– Earliest (ES) & latest (LS) start
– Earliest (EF) & latest (LF) finish
– Slack (S): Allowable delay
• Identifies critical path
– Longest path in network
– Shortest time project can be completed
– Any delay on critical path activities
delays project
– Critical path activities have 0 slack
3-43
Earliest Start & Finish Steps
• Begin at starting event and work forward
• ES = 0 for starting activities
– ES is earliest start
• EF = ES + Activity time
– EF is earliest finish
• ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for
non-starting activities
3-44
Latest Start and Finish Steps
• Begin at ending event and work
backward
• LF = Maximum EF for ending activities
– LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish
• LS = LF - Activity time
– LS is latest start
• LF = Minimum LS of all successors for
non-ending activities
3-45
Latest Start and Finish Steps
Latest
Finish
ES
LS
EF
LF
Earliest
Finish
Latest
Start
Earliest
Start
Activity
Name
Activity
Duration
3-46
Critical Path for
Milwaukee General Hospital
Start
A
B
C
D
F
F
G
H
Arrows show
precedence
relationships
3-47
AON Network for Milwaukee
Hospital Includes Critical Path
Slack=0
Start
A
B
C
D
F
F
G
H
H
13
13
2
15
15
H
G
8
8
5
13
13
H
F
4
10
3
7
13
H
C
2
2
2
4
4
H
E
4
4
4
8
8
H
D
3
4
4
7
8
H
B
0
1
3
3
4
H
A
0
0
2
2
2
H
0
0
0
0
0
Slack=0 Slack=0
Slack=0
Slack=0
Slack=6
Slack=1Slack=1
Start
3-48
Gantt Chart
Earliest Start and Finish
Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital
A Build internal components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection stack
D Pour concrete and install
frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution device
H Inspect and test
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16
3-49
Gantt Chart
Latest Start and Finish
Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital
A Build internal components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection stack
D Pour concrete and install
frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution device
H Inspect and test
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16
3-50
1-2 Fdn & frame
1-3 Buy shrubs
2-3 Roof
2-4 Interior work
3-4 Landscape
4 5 6 7 8 9
1
0
1
1
1
2321Activity
Build House Project
Gantt Chart
Latest Start and Finish
3-51
PERT Activity Times
• 3 time estimates
– Optimistic times (a)
– Most-likely time (m)
– Pessimistic time (b)
• Follow beta distribution
• Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6
• Variance of times: v = (b - a)2
/6

3-52
Project Times
• Expected project time
(T)
– Sum of critical path
activity times, t
• Project variance (V)
– Sum of critical path
activity variances, v
Used to obtain
probability of project
completion!
3-53
PERT Probability Example
You’re a project planner for
General Dynamics.
A submarine project has an
expected completion time
of 40 weeks, with a
standard deviation of 5
weeks. What is the
probability of finishing the
sub in 50 weeks or less?
3-54
T = 40
s = 5
50 X
NormalNormal
DistributionDistribution
Z
X T
=
-
=
-
=
s
50 40
5
2 0.
mz = 0
sZ = 1
Z2.0
Standardized NormalStandardized Normal
DistributionDistribution
Converting to Standardized
Variable
3-55
mz = 0
s Z = 1
Z2.0
Z .00 .01
0.0 .50000 .50399
: : : :
2.0 .97725 .97784 .97831
2.1 .98214 .98257 .98300
Standardized Normal ProbabilityStandardized Normal Probability
Table (Portion)Table (Portion)
Probabilities in bodyProbabilities in body
Obtaining the Probability
.02
.50798
.97725
3-56
Variability of Completion
Time for Noncritical Paths
• Variability of times for activities on
noncritical paths must be considered
when finding the probability of finishing
in a specified time.
• Variation in noncritical activity may
cause change in critical path.
3-57
Factors to Consider when Crashing
• The amount by which an activity is
crashed is, in fact, permissible.
• Taken together, the shortened activity
durations will enable one to finish the
project by the due date.
• The total cost of crashing is as small as
possible.
3-58
Steps in Project Crashing
• Compute the crash cost per time period. For
crash costs assumed linear over time:
• Using current activity times, find the critical path
• If there is only one critical path, then select the
activity on this critical path that (a) can still be
crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per
period. Note that a single activity may be
common to more than one critical path
• Update all activity times.
)Crash timetime(Normal
costNormalcost(Crash
periodpercostCrash
−
−
=
3-59
Crash and Normal Times and
Costs for Activity B
3-60
Cost-Time Curves Used in
Crashing Analysis
3-61
Advantages of PERT/CPM
• Especially useful when scheduling and controlling
large projects.
• Straightforward concept and not mathematically
complex.
• Graphical networks aid perception of relationships
among project activities.
• Critical path & slack time analyses help pinpoint
activities that need to be closely watched.
• Project documentation and graphics point out who
is responsible for various activities.
• Applicable to a wide variety of projects.
• Useful in monitoring schedules and costs.
3-62
Limitations of PERT/CPM
• Assumes clearly defined, independent,
& stable activities
• Specified precedence relationships
• Activity times (PERT) follow
beta distribution
• Subjective time estimates
• Over-emphasis on critical path
3-63
Thank You
3-64

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Project management

  • 2. Outline • GLOBAL COMPANY PROFILE: BECHTEL GROUP • THE IMPORTANCE OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT • PROJECT PLANNING – The Project Manager – Work Breakdown Structure • PROJECT SCHEDULING • PROJECT CONTROLLING 3-2
  • 3. Outline - Continued • PROJECT MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES: PERT AND CPM – The Framework of PERT and CPM – Network Diagrams and Approaches – Activity on Node Example – Determining the Project Schedule • Forward Pass • Backward Pass • Calculating Slack Time and Identifying the Critical Path(s) 3-3
  • 4. Outline - Continued – Variability in Activity Times • Three Time Estimates in PERT • Probability of Project Completion • Cost-Time Tradeoffs and Project Crashing • A Critique of PERT and CPM • Visual PERT/CPM Computer Program Practice 3-4
  • 5. Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Identify or Define: – Work breakdown structure – Critical path – AOA and AON Networks – Forward and Backward Passes – Variability in Activity Times 3-5
  • 6. Learning Objectives – Cont.. When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Describe or Explain: – The role of the project manager – Program evaluation and review technique (PERT) – Critical path method (CPM) – Crashing a project – The Use of MS Project 3-6
  • 7. Bechtel – Case Study • Asked by Kuwait to begin rebuilding after Desert Storm • 650 wells ablaze, others uncapped • No water, electricity, food or facilities • Land mines! Bombs! Grenades! • Many fires inaccessible because of oil- covered roads 3-7
  • 8. Bechtel • Project required: – Storage, docking, and warehousing facilities at Dubai – 125,000 tons of equipment and supplies – 150 kilometers of pipeline capable of delivering 20,000,000 gallons of water per day to the fire site – more than 200 lagoons with 1,000,000 gals of seawater 3-8
  • 9. Bechtel Other Projects • Building 26 massive distribution centers in just two years for the internet company Webvan Group • Constructing 30 high-security data centers worldwide for Equinix, Inc. • Building and running a rail line between London and the Channel Tunnel ($4.6 billion) • Developing an oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea region to Russia ($850 million) • Expanding the Dubai Airport in the UAE ($600 million), and the Miami Airport in Florida ($2 billion) 3-9
  • 10. Bechtel Other Projects – Cont. • Building liquid natural gas plants in Yemen $2 billion) and in Trinidad, West Indies ($1 billion) • Building a new subway for Athens, Greece ($2.6 billion) • Constructing a natural gas pipeline in Thailand ($700 million) • Building a highway to link the north and south of Croatia ($303 million) 3-10
  • 11. Strategic Importance of PM • Bechtel Kuwait Project: – 8,000 workers – 1,000 construction professionals – 100 medical personnel – 2 helicopter evacuation teams – 6 full-service dining halls – 27,000 meals per day – 40 bed field hospital 3-11
  • 12. • Microsoft Windows XP Project: – hundreds of programmers – millions of lines of code – millions of dollars cost • Ford Redesign of Mustang Project: – 450 member project team – Cost $700-million – 25% faster and 30% cheaper than comparable project at Ford Strategic Importance of PM 3-12
  • 13. Project Characteristics • Single unit • Many related activities • Difficult production planning and inventory control • General purpose equipment • High labor skills 3-13
  • 14. An Example • Building construction © 1995 Corel Corp. 3-14
  • 15. An Example • Research project © 1995 Corel Corp. 3-15
  • 16. Project Management • Project management is the discipline of carefully projecting or planning, organizing, motivating and controlling resources to achieve specific goals and meet specific success criteria. • A project is a temporary endeavour designed to produce a unique product, service or result with a defined beginning and end (usually time- constrained, and often constrained by funding or deliverables) undertaken to meet unique goals and objectives, typically to bring about beneficial change or added value. 3-16
  • 17. The Traditional Approach • A traditional phased approach identifies a sequence of steps to be completed. • Typical development phases of an engineering project – initiation – planning and design – execution and construction – monitoring and controlling systems – completion and finish point 3-17
  • 18. Management of Large Projects • Planning - goal setting, project definition, team organization • Scheduling - relating people, money, and supplies to specific activities and activities to one and other • Controlling - monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets; revising plans and shifting resources to meet time and cost demands 3-18
  • 19. Planning Objectives Resources Work break- down schedule Organization Scheduling Project activities Start & end times Network Controlling Monitor, compare, revise, action Project Management Activities 3-19
  • 20. Project Organization Works Best When • Work can be defined with a specific goal and deadline • The job is unique or somewhat unfamiliar to the existing organization • The work contains complex interrelated tasks requiring specialized skills • The project is temporary but critical to the organization 3-20
  • 21. Project Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling Project Planning 1. Setting goals 2. Defining the project 3. Tying needs into timed project activities 4. Organizing the team Project Scheduling 1. Tying resources to specific activities 2. Relating activities to each other 3. Updating and revising on a regular basis Time/cost estimates Budgets Engineering diagrams Cash flow charts Material availability details CPM/PERT Gantt charts Milestone charts Cash flow schedules Project Controlling 1. Monitoring resources, costs, quality, and budgets 2. Revising and changing plans 3. Shifting resources to meet demands Reports • budgets • delayed activities • slack activities Before Project During Project 3-21
  • 23. Project Planning • Establishing objectives • Defining project • Creating work breakdown structure • Determining resources • Forming organization © 1995 Corel Corp. 3-23
  • 24. Project Organization • Often temporary structure • Uses specialists from entire company • Headed by project manager – Coordinates activities – Monitors schedule & costs • Permanent structure called ‘matrix organization’ Acct. Eng. Eng. Mkt. Mgr. 3-24
  • 25. A Sample Project Organization Sales President Finance Human Resources Engineering Quality Control Production Technician Test Engineer Propulsion Engineer Physiologist Project Manager Psychologist Structural Engineer Inspection Technician Technician Project 1 Project 2 Project Manager 3-25
  • 26. A Sample Project Organization Sales Finance Human Resources Engineering Quality Control Production Test Engineer Propulsion Engineer Technician Project 1 Project 2 Project Manager Technician Project Manager Structural Engineer Inspection Technician President 3-26
  • 27. Mkt Oper Eng Fin Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4          Matrix Organization 3-27
  • 28. Role of Project Manager Project Plan and Schedule Revisions and Updates Project Manager Project Team Top Management Resources Performance Reports Information regarding times, costs, problems, delays Feedback Loop 3-28
  • 29. Work Breakdown Structure 1. Project 2. Major tasks in the project 3. Subtasks in the major tasks 4. Activities (or work packages) to be completed 3-29
  • 30. J F M A M J J Month Activity Design Build Test PERT Project Scheduling • Identifying precedence relationships • Sequencing activities • Determining activity times & costs • Estimating material & worker requirements • Determining critical activities 3-30
  • 31. Purposes of Project Scheduling • Shows the relationship of each activity to others and to the whole project. • Identifies the precedence relationships among activities. • Encourages the setting of realistic time and cost estimates for each activity. • Helps make better use of people, money, and material resources by identifying critical bottlenecks in the project. 3-31
  • 32. Project Management Techniques • Gantt chart • Critical Path Method (CPM) • Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT) 3-32
  • 33. J F M A M J J Time Period Activity Design Build Test Gantt Chart 3-33
  • 34. Service Activities for A Delta Jet During a 60 Minute Layover 3-34
  • 35. Project Control Reports • Detailed cost breakdowns for each task • Total program labor curves • Cost distribution tables • Functional cost and hour summaries • Raw materials and expenditure forecasts • Variance reports • Time analysis reports • Work status reports 3-35
  • 36. PERT and CPM • Network techniques • Developed in 1950’s – CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957) – PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958) • Consider precedence relationships and interdependencies • Each uses a different estimate of activity times 3-36
  • 37. • Is the project on schedule, ahead of schedule, or behind schedule? • Is the project over or under cost budget? • Are there enough resources available to finish the project on time? • If the project must be finished in less than the scheduled amount of time, what is the way to accomplish this at least cost? Questions Which May Be Addressed by PERT & CPM 3-37
  • 38. Six Steps Common to PERT & CPM 1. Define the project and prepare the work breakdown structure, 2. Develop relationships among the activities. (Decide which activities must precede and which must follow others.) 3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities 4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity 5. Compute the longest time path through the network. This is called the critical path 6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and control the project 3-38
  • 39. A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions 3-39
  • 40. Milwaukee General Hospital’s Activities and Predecessors Activity Description Immediate Predecessors A Build internal components - B Modify roof and floor - C Construct collection stack A D Pour concrete and install frame A, B E Build high-temperature burner C F Install pollution control system C G Install air pollution device D, E H Inspect and test F, G 3-40
  • 41. AON Network for Milwaukee General Hospital Start A B C D F F G H Arrows show precedence relationships 3-41
  • 42. 1 3 2 4 5 6 7 H Inspect/Test G Install pollution control device D Pour concrete/ Install frame B Modify roof/floor C Construct stack F Install controls E Buildburner AOA Network (With Dummy Activities) for Milwaukee General A Buildinternal components Dummy Activity 3-42
  • 43. Critical Path Analysis • Provides activity information – Earliest (ES) & latest (LS) start – Earliest (EF) & latest (LF) finish – Slack (S): Allowable delay • Identifies critical path – Longest path in network – Shortest time project can be completed – Any delay on critical path activities delays project – Critical path activities have 0 slack 3-43
  • 44. Earliest Start & Finish Steps • Begin at starting event and work forward • ES = 0 for starting activities – ES is earliest start • EF = ES + Activity time – EF is earliest finish • ES = Maximum EF of all predecessors for non-starting activities 3-44
  • 45. Latest Start and Finish Steps • Begin at ending event and work backward • LF = Maximum EF for ending activities – LF is latest finish; EF is earliest finish • LS = LF - Activity time – LS is latest start • LF = Minimum LS of all successors for non-ending activities 3-45
  • 46. Latest Start and Finish Steps Latest Finish ES LS EF LF Earliest Finish Latest Start Earliest Start Activity Name Activity Duration 3-46
  • 47. Critical Path for Milwaukee General Hospital Start A B C D F F G H Arrows show precedence relationships 3-47
  • 48. AON Network for Milwaukee Hospital Includes Critical Path Slack=0 Start A B C D F F G H H 13 13 2 15 15 H G 8 8 5 13 13 H F 4 10 3 7 13 H C 2 2 2 4 4 H E 4 4 4 8 8 H D 3 4 4 7 8 H B 0 1 3 3 4 H A 0 0 2 2 2 H 0 0 0 0 0 Slack=0 Slack=0 Slack=0 Slack=0 Slack=6 Slack=1Slack=1 Start 3-48
  • 49. Gantt Chart Earliest Start and Finish Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital A Build internal components B Modify roof and floor C Construct collection stack D Pour concrete and install frame E Build high-temperature burner F Install pollution control system G Install air pollution device H Inspect and test 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16 3-49
  • 50. Gantt Chart Latest Start and Finish Milwaukee General HospitalMilwaukee General Hospital A Build internal components B Modify roof and floor C Construct collection stack D Pour concrete and install frame E Build high-temperature burner F Install pollution control system G Install air pollution device H Inspect and test 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1112 13 1415 16 3-50
  • 51. 1-2 Fdn & frame 1-3 Buy shrubs 2-3 Roof 2-4 Interior work 3-4 Landscape 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2321Activity Build House Project Gantt Chart Latest Start and Finish 3-51
  • 52. PERT Activity Times • 3 time estimates – Optimistic times (a) – Most-likely time (m) – Pessimistic time (b) • Follow beta distribution • Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 • Variance of times: v = (b - a)2 /6  3-52
  • 53. Project Times • Expected project time (T) – Sum of critical path activity times, t • Project variance (V) – Sum of critical path activity variances, v Used to obtain probability of project completion! 3-53
  • 54. PERT Probability Example You’re a project planner for General Dynamics. A submarine project has an expected completion time of 40 weeks, with a standard deviation of 5 weeks. What is the probability of finishing the sub in 50 weeks or less? 3-54
  • 55. T = 40 s = 5 50 X NormalNormal DistributionDistribution Z X T = - = - = s 50 40 5 2 0. mz = 0 sZ = 1 Z2.0 Standardized NormalStandardized Normal DistributionDistribution Converting to Standardized Variable 3-55
  • 56. mz = 0 s Z = 1 Z2.0 Z .00 .01 0.0 .50000 .50399 : : : : 2.0 .97725 .97784 .97831 2.1 .98214 .98257 .98300 Standardized Normal ProbabilityStandardized Normal Probability Table (Portion)Table (Portion) Probabilities in bodyProbabilities in body Obtaining the Probability .02 .50798 .97725 3-56
  • 57. Variability of Completion Time for Noncritical Paths • Variability of times for activities on noncritical paths must be considered when finding the probability of finishing in a specified time. • Variation in noncritical activity may cause change in critical path. 3-57
  • 58. Factors to Consider when Crashing • The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact, permissible. • Taken together, the shortened activity durations will enable one to finish the project by the due date. • The total cost of crashing is as small as possible. 3-58
  • 59. Steps in Project Crashing • Compute the crash cost per time period. For crash costs assumed linear over time: • Using current activity times, find the critical path • If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on this critical path that (a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. Note that a single activity may be common to more than one critical path • Update all activity times. )Crash timetime(Normal costNormalcost(Crash periodpercostCrash − − = 3-59
  • 60. Crash and Normal Times and Costs for Activity B 3-60
  • 61. Cost-Time Curves Used in Crashing Analysis 3-61
  • 62. Advantages of PERT/CPM • Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large projects. • Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex. • Graphical networks aid perception of relationships among project activities. • Critical path & slack time analyses help pinpoint activities that need to be closely watched. • Project documentation and graphics point out who is responsible for various activities. • Applicable to a wide variety of projects. • Useful in monitoring schedules and costs. 3-62
  • 63. Limitations of PERT/CPM • Assumes clearly defined, independent, & stable activities • Specified precedence relationships • Activity times (PERT) follow beta distribution • Subjective time estimates • Over-emphasis on critical path 3-63

Notas del editor

  1. It may be helpful here to ask students to compare the effort they believe necessary to manage this project to the effort they believe required to actually perform the physical tasks. Total cost might be a useful unit of comparison. One might expect the management cost to run 10% - 20% of the total.
  2. It is helpful here to provide an expanded discussion of the activities.
  3. A useful project management technique must contribute in all areas.
  4. Students should be asked to explain why these requirements are appropriate.
  5. If students have been assigned a term project, this material can be covered early in the semester and the students asked to develop a plan for their project.
  6. This may be a good time to look, at least briefly, at alternative organizational structures. Certainly hierarchical and matrix structures should be examined. The role of information technology in each of the alternatives should be examined. The following several slides illustrate various organizational structures.
  7. How does the structure of the project organization compare with the typical structure of the larger organization?
  8. How does the structure of the project organization compare with the typical structure of the larger organization?
  9. Given that a project is something the firm is relatively unfamiliar with, how does one go about determining the appropriate costs and times? You might point out that specifying the beginning and end points for an activity is often a difficult task. Work breakdown may be the most difficult aspect of many projects.
  10. You might point out to students that there are those who claim that the real benefit of using project management tools comes from the planning and organizing effort, not the actual management of the tasks during the project.
  11. As you discuss the various project scheduling techniques, you should include at least: - the basic assumptions of the technique - problems typically encountered in applying it - the nature of the effort required to keep the tool current - sources of problems - the nature of the decisions supported by the tool - the nature of the management effort and cost associated with using the tool.
  12. What circumstances lead the two organizations to develop different, yet similar tools for the management of complex projects? In your discussion of PERT/CPM, you should probably note that PERT helps us identify critical tasks/activities and look at the probability of completing the project by a given date; CPM helps us analyze the cost/time tradeoffs possible if we need to speed the project up.
  13. This and the next several slides illustrate the definitions of terms appropriate to critical path analysis. There are many opportunities for good managers to truly manage a project once they have a PERT network established. For instance, sub-contractors know early start and late start times and the managers know the activities on the critical path upon which to focus effort.
  14. This and the following slide illustrate the translation of Early and Late Start and Finish time to Gantt charts.
  15. This and the following slide illustrate the translation of Early and Late Start and Finish time to Gantt charts.
  16. In your discussion of activity times, you should probably at least make note of the difference between “most likely” and “average” or “ expected” completion times.
  17. There are those that argue that the Polaris could not have been built without the use of project management techniques (PERT).
  18. Another issue with respect to the use of PERT/CPM is the cost and amount of management time required to keep the system up to date.