With innovation cycles becoming shorter and shorter, the foresight skills become one of the most important in building sustainable brands, businesses and products. Here is a short introduction outlining the ways in which we can systematically think about trends and their impact.

1. COMMUNICATION
2015
# introduction
to trend research
S E M I O S E A R C H . L T
b l o g :
I D E A G R O U P
c o m p a n y :

2. we build brands based on insights, but we
build them for the future and not for the
present or the past
FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS
…

3. we build brands based on insights, but we
build them for the future and not for the
present or the past
FORESIGHT AND INSIGHTS
…
…
that’s why we need foresight as much as
insight

4. NOW AND FUTURE
what we are doing right now is defined by how we see
the future and it is seeing through corners that
enhances our abilities to achieve more

5. TREND
trends usually do not
emerge due to the activities
of the people who created
them
WHO?

6. TREND
there are two types of
people involved in the trend
creation process
WHO?

7. TREND
trend-creators
trend-setters

8. TREND
trend-creators
trend-setters
usually create
something new and
innovative and stick to
it without much
digression
are people that take
up something new
and then make it a
trend

9. THE POWER OF A
TRENSETTER
let’s take an analogy of a video going
viral – in most cases trends work the
same way

10. THE POWER OF A
TRENSETTER
a trendsetter shares the obscure
video and the very moment its views
start climbing exponentially
a video that is yet to become viral lies
there in total neglect with a few
views up to a couple of years (in
some cases more than six)1
2
3and finally this is
what we come to
know as the viral
video

11. GROUPS
poly-social mono-social
groups that have more
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
groups that have little
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
TRENDSETTER

12. GROUPS
poly-social mono-social
the young, style -
conscious, subcultures,
artists, celebrities, the
wealthy, designers,
people in creative
industries
groups that have little
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
groups that have more
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
TRENDSETTER

13. GROUPS
poly-social mono-social
the young, style -
conscious, subcultures,
artists, celebrities, the
wealthy, designers,
people in creative
industries
groups that have little
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
groups that have more
social contacts with
other groups that differ
from themselves
showing: curiosity,
desire to explore,
social influence
TRENDSETTER

14. MINDSET
imaginative practical
TRENDSETTER
vs
variety fixationvs
independence conformityvs
change practicalvs

15. TREND-SPOTTING
GAME
we observe how the
trendsetters observe
trends

16. CONDITIONS
FOR A TREND
for a trend to
emerge and grow it
has to meet certain
requirements
HOW?

17. CONDITIONS
FOR A TREND
observable
imitable
it is easy to adopt it,
there are little entry
barriers, it is not
extreme
it is easy to observe
and notice the change
or the change
elements

18. only when several
different trend-setter
groups pick up the
trend
with a large number of
trendsetters
embracing the trend
in each group
different groups
taking up related
trends from different
types of industries
group industry number
1 2 3
CONDITIONS
FOR A TREND

19. trend-creators
trend-followers
trend-setters
early-mainstreamers
later-mainstreamers
laggards
anti-innovators
trends as any
type of
innovation
have to go
through
groups of
people having
different
attitudes
towards
novelties,
innovation
and change

20. trend-creators
trend-followers
trend-setters
early-mainstreamers
later-mainstreamers
laggards
anti-innovators
only starting following a trend after the
early-mainstreamers have hopped in – not
adopting anything unless others have
open to innovation, but need confirmation
from others
they have people they look up to and follow
and take something up as soon as they see
their role-models doing that
for them change is a positive thing – they
search and look everywhere, adopt and
communicate about it
innovating in their respective fields, creating
trends, but usually not setting them
always taking the
opposite approach to a
trend
taking something up only
after the later-
mainstreamers are in

22. THREE LEVELS
there are three levels on which
trends manifest themselves – the
levels are distinguished on the basis
of possible number of micro-trends
that made them up
trend research aims
to be multi-
dimensional as
otherwise it risks at
mistaking fads for
trends or not
understanding the
real significance of
trends or reasons
that are driving the
change

23. THREE LEVELS
there are three levels on which
trends manifest themselves – the
levels are distinguished on the basis
of possible number of micro-trends
that made them up
the first level consists of areas that
feature most fundamental and long-
shifting trends, the last one – the
most personal and dynamic trends

24. THREE LEVELS
GENERAL LEVEL
PERSONAL LEVEL
COLLECTIVE LEVEL
POLITICS, ECONOMICS,
LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT
CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION,
ORGANIZATIONS
CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE-
STYLE
1
2
3

25. THREE LEVELS
GENERAL LEVEL
PERSONAL LEVEL
COLLECTIVE LEVEL
POLITICS, ECONOMICS,
LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT
CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION,
ORGANIZATIONS
CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE-
STYLE
1
2
3
the three levels are
inter-related and
changes in some of
them relate to
changes in others

26. THREE LEVELS
GENERAL LEVEL
PERSONAL LEVEL
COLLECTIVE LEVEL
POLITICS, ECONOMICS,
LEGISLATION, ENVIROMENT
CULTURE, SOCIETY, COMMUNICATION,
ORGANIZATIONS
CONSUMPTION, WELL-BEING, LIFE-
STYLE
1
2
3
the three levels are
inter-related and
changes in some of
them relate to
changes in others

27. just think of the inter-relation between new forms
of digital-social communication, social forms of
cyber-bullying and new legislation redefining the
definition of being liable for certain forms of online
communication

29. REALISTIC
SCENARIOS
IDEALIST
SCENARIOS

30. REALISTIC
SCENARIOS
IDEALIST
SCENARIOS
static
dynamic optimistic
radical
likely,
conservative in
nature,
predictable
likely,
conservative in
nature,
predictable
overturning
beliefs with
complete
alternative
taking into
account possible
disruptive trends

31. REALISTIC
SCENARIOS
IDEALIST
SCENARIOS
static
dynamic optimistic
radical
likely,
conservative in
nature,
predictable
different to
existing
strategies and
codes
overturning
situation with
complete
alternative
taking into
account possible
emergent trends
WHAT TRENDS
HAVE IMPACT ON
THESE
SCENARIOS?

33. DIFFERENT WAYS
TO ANALYZE
TRENDS

34. expert panels /
trend-scouts
semiotic / cultural
analysis
extrapolation /
scenario building
literature / data
analysis
scientific
statistical
analysisfinding themes, theories and
expert formulated trends
that originate in a specific
field – usually a preparatory
part for a more expansive
trend research project
analyzing cultural codes to
determine the cultural progression
of certain conceptions and
understanding and marking
potential developments. This entails
working with cultural artifacts and
texts and performing content
analysis.
statistical operations
that allow to project
changes in the future
gathering information on
emerging trends
through pre-recruited panels
consumer
research
analyzing cultural codes to
determine the cultural
progression of certain
conceptions and understanding
and marking potential
developments. This entails
working with cultural artifacts
and texts and performing
content analysis.
constructing how present
developments might possibly
develop in the future

36. counter-trend
mainstream

37. counter-trend
mainstream
peripheral trends

38. counter-trend
mainstream
peripheral trends
most of the trends start as the
reaction to the mainstream and work
as ball bouncing back and forth

39. MACROTREND
microtrend microtrend microtrendmicrotrend

40. MACROTREND
microtrend microtrend microtrendmicrotrend
try to think of the trends as a
network – it the dots are
connected, most probably
you are stumbling on
something important

41. BACK-TO-THE ROOTS
roots
rediscovery /
simple
ingredients
heirloom varieties /
antique eats
open kitchen
restaurant
green supply
chain

42. HIGH / LOW CULTURE
craft beer /
beer
sommelier
reinstating
hamburger
simple
ingredient
kitchen
pizza
revival
/gourmet
doughnuts

44. TREND RESEARCH LAYS THE GROUND WORK FOR
MEANINGFUL AND CONTINUOUS INNOVATION
INNOVATION
SPOTTING

45. REVERSE
INNOVATION
RESEARCH

46. REVERSE
INNOVATION
RESEARCH
one way of working
with trends is through
the lens of business
innovations and the
actual change in
consumers that make it
all possible

47. one way of working
with trends is through
the lens of business
innovations and the
actual change in
consumers that make it
all possible
business
innovations
consumer
needs
consumer
expectations

48. one way of working
with trends is through
the lens of business
innovations and the
actual change in
consumers that make it
all possible
business
innovations
consumer
needs
consumer
expectations
it is reverse, because you don’t start with social change or consumer needs analysis, but with
what is actually happening with business/service/product landscape – what new thinking is
emerging in different markets – this points you further, i. e. what actually the users are
searching for that these businesses are trying to provide
1 2 3

49. one way of working
with trends is through
the lens of business
innovations and the
actual change in
consumers that make it
all possible
business
innovations
consumer
needs
consumer
expectations
what changes are happening
internally and externally, how
does that affect various
stakeholders (employees,
management, communities and
consumers)?
what does that say about the
consumer? what specific needs
do these innovations address?
how is that going to change
consumer perceptions and
expectations for futre offerings
and services

50. CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE
profit model
network
processes
product
performance
INNOVATIONS
product/service
ecosystem
service
channels
branding
consumers
structure
innovations might occur in any part of the
business: it can be on the visible side, or the
internal-facing part of the business. In any case
the innovation framework might help identify the
occurring changes

51. CONFIGURATION OFFERS EXPERIENCE
profit model
network
processes
product
performance
INNOVATIONS
product/service
ecosystem
service
channels
branding
consumers
-how you make money?
-how you connect with
others to create value?
-how you organize your
talent and assets?
-what methods you use
for your work?
structure
-how do you develop
distinguishing features and
functionality?
-how do you create
complementary products
and services?
-how you support and
amplify the value of your
offerings
-how do you deliver your
offerings to customers and
users?
-how do you represent your
offerings and business?
-how do manage customer
interactions?

52. once the innovation
becomes applied it is just
common sense

53. SUBSCRIPTION
ownership model

54. SUBSCRIPTION
ownership model
let’s say we take the subscription
model – we can see how lately it has
been proliferated across different
industries: starting with periodicals,
going to software, now even present in
hardware

55. SUBSCRIPTION
ownership model
let’s say we take the subscription
model – we can see how lately it has
been proliferated across different
industries: starting with periodicals,
going to software, now even present in
hardware
but the rapid adoption of the
subscription pricing model became
possible only because of the changing
attitudes towards ownership and
generally – having stuff.

56. SUBSCRIPTION
ownership model
let’s say we take the subscription
model – we can see how lately it has
been proliferated across different
industries: starting with periodicals,
going to software, now even present in
hardware
but the rapid adoption of the
subscription pricing model became
possible only because of the changing
attitudes towards ownership and
generally – having stuff.
and the mindset has started changing due
to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the
increase in spending power, the speed of
innovations, amount of stuff that is
possible to keep at home and etc.

57. SUBSCRIPTION
ownership model
let’s say we take the subscription
model – we can see how lately it has
been proliferated across different
industries: starting with periodicals,
going to software, now even present in
hardware
but the rapid adoption of the
subscription pricing model became
possible only because of the changing
attitudes towards ownership and
generally – having stuff.
and the mindset has started changing due
to certain tangible aspects of our lives: the
increase in spending power, the speed of
innovations, amount of stuff that is
possible to stuff at home and etc.
SO business profit model and product performance innovations have
become possible due to changing living conditions and behavioral
attitudes – it‘s all connected

58. CULTURAL ANALYSIS

59. cultural innovation might bring brand into
new territories by allowing them to capitalize
on ideological opportunities. But this requires
in-depth knowledge of the cultural code
dynamics and the possible futures.

60. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT
a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are
prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture)

61. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT
a code is a particular way that configuration of different meaningful elements are
prescribed with determined meanings ( as in certain elements denoting craft culture)
code can be described as a cultural currency that changes over time – new
codes take the central position and push out the old ones

62. RESIDUAL DOMINANT EMERGENT
codes that are regarded as
old-fashioned and are less
relevant taking into the
account the changing
cultural landscape
the mainstream codes that
mark the status-quo
interpretation of the
phenomenon
niche and new codes that
propose alternative ways
of evaluating / interpreting
/ decoding cultural
phenomenon

63. EXAMPLE

64. it is rather easy to notice change in the
way certain roles are codified – what is
important are not the actors or their role,
but the concepts of the hero and man
they represent

65. it is rather easy to notice change in the
way certain roles are codified – what is
important are not the actors or their role,
but the concepts of the hero and man
they represent
so the first step while working with
codes is to identify what is actually
changing and what is staying the same

66. it is rather easy to notice change in the
way certain roles are codified – what is
important are not the actors or their role,
but the concepts of the hero and man
they represent
so the first step while working with
codes is to identify what is actually
changing and what is staying the same
while using semiotics this entails looking closely at
how relationships between different elements
change within the stories analyzed: the hero and
the organization, the hero and the enemy, the hero
and the damsel in distress and etc.

67. that really interests us, we have to look outside for
codes that might influence or have influenced the
evolution of our hero
THE NEXT STEP
as it is the

68. that really interests us, we have to look outside for
codes that might influence or have influenced the
evolution of our hero
THE NEXT STEP
as it is the
and by doing this we might trace the
overall changes in the hero type: i. e.
him working against the system,
outside of it, having a different
relationship with the one to be
saved and all the rest that can not
be saved

69. SUPERHEROES
ACTION
HEROES
HERO
ARCHETYPES IN
MODERN FICTION
DETECTIVE
FICTION /
MILITARY FICTION
IF STUCK
think about all the related areas and
changes in them that might possibly
affect the development of the
BOND archetype

70. sorting out the emergent codes from the residual ones, a
trend research might start building future cultural
trajectories and scenarios

72. performance
importance
brands fulfil certain consumer
needs and neglect others.
Certain aspects of brand activity
have different impact on
perceived brand value.

73. performance
importance
brands fulfil certain consumer
needs and neglect others.
Certain aspects of brand activity
have different impact on
perceived brand value.
when brand perform well in
certain aspects, the consumer
needs are fulfilled and with time
become less and less prominent

74. performance
importance
brands fulfil certain consumer
needs and neglect others.
Certain aspects of brand activity
have different impact on
perceived brand value.
when brand perform well in
certain aspects, the consumer
needs are fulfilled and with time
become less and less prominent
and then those brand aspects
appear here – in the high
performance but low
importance quadrant

75. performance
importance
brands fulfil certain consumer
needs and neglect others.
Certain aspects of brand activity
have different impact on
perceived brand value.
when brand perform well in
certain aspects, the consumer
needs are fulfilled and with time
become less and less prominent
and then those brand aspects
appear here – in the high
performance but low
importance quadrant
and this in turn gives rise to new
consumer needs that have to be
fulfilled for the brands to stay
afloat

76. performance
importance
brands fulfil certain consumer
needs and neglect others.
Certain aspects of brand activity
have different impact on
perceived brand value.
when brand perform well in
certain aspects, the consumer
needs are fulfilled and with time
become less and less prominent
and then those brand aspects
appear here – in the high
performance but low
importance quadrant
and this in turn gives rise to new
consumer needs that have to be
fulfilled for the brands to stay
afloat
CONSUMER NEEDS DYNAMICS

78. as the trends themselves
emerge across different fields
and areas, within different
communities, so the methods
that are used to uncover them
should be diverse – looking at
different aspects of trend
landscape and integrating
findings in one system

79. the trick is to start with the most observable
changes moving away to most abstract and least
tangible areas
CHANGES IN CONSUMER
PRIORITIES
BUSINESS
INNOVATIONS
EXPERT / PROSUMER
OPPINIONS
CULTURAL
TRENDS

80. THE LAST STAGE –
integrating qualitative
and quantitative data
and building future
scenarios based on it

82. modern life
follow culture
product ownership
1950
1980
NOW
FUTURE
exploring lifestyle
experimentation / social taboo
product experience
individual empowerment
creativity
self-actualization
system / collective problems
empathy and cooperation
meaningful life
buy
express yourself
participate
co-create in network

83. SIGNS OF CHANGE
FUTURE
we can already witness change occurring
throughout different areas and industries that signal
that we are entering into a new era of consumption

84. the infolust trend is
already having some
negative consequences
as people are starting
to suffer from burn out
from learning and are
seeking meaningful
learning patterns or
even learning detox
INFOLUST
TREND CHANGE
since knowledge is
becoming
democratized and
people no longer want
to listen, but also to
share something useful
that they have
INFOSHARE

85. learning more to
efficiently do a job and
become experts in a
respective field,
enabling an individual
to learn
LEARNING
ORGANIZATION
TREND CHANGE
being ready to adapt to
any situation; open to
possibilities and future
developments; flat
hierarchical structures
RESPONSIVE
ORGANIZATION

86. collecting and tracking
your own health-data
to become a better /
healthier person
INDIVIDUAL
HEALTH
TREND CHANGE
collecting a network
data and working with
that to provide better
health information and
service to individuals
HEALTH
NETWORK

88. BRANDS
some of the most prominent and successful brands that we know today have
become such because of the timely trend adoption – let’s take a look
and trends

89. stay properly hydrated trend
vitamin-a-day
form follows function
sugary drinks and taste
CONTEXT: emerging in the market that is saturated
with products that offer new and stronger tastes,
alarm bells of obesity crisis
the rise of the bottled water trend and the
thinking that we need to stay properly hydrated
throughout the day
vitamins can keep you healthy and protected
against diseases and illnesses
Vitamin water – brand that literally embodied the
emergent trends of the time and put them at the
very center of its identity
design language that ditches the over the top
promises and goes for the functional

90. willpower (working not winning)
societal discrimination
individual competition
EMERGENT COUNTER-CULTURE: turning away
from team sports to personal competition,
from athletes to people; u
using the images of the marginalized groups
and athletes
emphasizing not the result, but the actual
efforts it takes to get somewhere
NIKE becoming the brand we know today
not by making new and innovative
products, but employing counter-cultural
communication strategies

91. community business
counter enterprise
sustainability
back-to-the-land
based on the rising critique of the
American economic system and its
values
explicitly stating their position and
attitude towards rival corporate
players’ actions
putting sustainability at the core of the
business, instead of parading under its
flag
reacting to family farm business
problems
BEN&JERRYS working around numerous related
trends that have emerged back in 1980’s and have
been greatly affecting businesses since then.

93. http://coolhunting.com/
http://www.thecoolhunter.net/
http://www.jwtintelligence.com/
http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/
http://trendcentral.com/
http://trendwatching.com/ http://www.fastcodesign.com/http://trendwolves.com/
http://springwise.com/

94. NEXT PART COMING
SOON
wouldliketolearnmore,haveatrend
workshopordiveintoyourindustry
trends?
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