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 
A global leader focused on you   Global  presence The world’s leading wealth manager Wealth management focus Wealth management is our core business Historical perspective 140-year tradition serving individuals and families in Europe and the U.S. UBS Financial  strength Well-capitalized bank with strong credit rating Source  Company second-quarter earnings reports for 2008.
Providing perspective   New York São Paulo Tokyo London & Frankfurt Zurich Hong Kong  Singapore ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Financial planning helps  weather any market  Conversations with UBS
So, what is happening in the markets? The S&P is down by 41% at its lowest point through October 31 Global equity markets have performed even worse Fixed income provides no refuge Investors are fleeing to cash positions
How has the financial crisis impacted you and your  loved ones? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Having a financial plan can make a difference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Gaining perspective: what history tells us Data source: Standard and Poor’s.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Stocks in this example are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500 ® , an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general.  -86.19 Great  Depression -36.64 WWII -48.20 1970s  Oil Crisis -31.47 1987  Crash -49.15 Dot com and 9/11 -41.34 Today’s Credit Crisis ,[object Object],Sept 1929-  June 1932 Jan 1973- Oct 1974 Oct 1939-  Dec 1941 Oct 5– Oct 19 1987 March 2000– Oct 2002 Jan 2008- Oct 27 2008 U.S. stock market downturns, 1929-2008, S&P 500 returns
Is it 1929 all over again? Sources:  Stock Decline: Bloomberg; Unemployment: U.S. Department of Labor; Foreclosures: St. Louis Federal Reserve (Great Depression) & Mortgage Bankers Association (Today); UBS Banking Support Systems & World Trade: UBS Wealth Management Research ,[object Object],U.S. banking  support systems ,[object Object],World trade ,[object Object],Unemployment ,[object Object],Stock market decline Great Depression ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Today
Historically, markets recover from crises Source:  Underlying data is from the  Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation® (SBBI ® ) Yearbook , by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex Sinquefield, updated annually.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1926. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2008 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2008 Large stocks are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500 ® , which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Government bonds are represented by the 20-year U.S. government bond, Treasury bills by the 30-day U.S. Treasury bill, and inflation by the Consumer Price Index. Underlying data is from the  Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation ®  (SBBI ® ) Yearbook , by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex Sinquefield, updated annually. Stocks represent ownership in a corporation, while bonds, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Small company stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. Government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while corporate bonds are not guaranteed. Compound annual return 1926 – 2007: Great  Depression WWII 1970s  Oil Crisis 1987  Crash Dot com and 9/11 Sept 1929-  June 1932 Jan 1973- Oct 1974 Oct 1939-  Dec 1941 Oct 5– Oct 19 1987 March 2000– Oct 2002 0.10 1 10 100 $10,000 1,000 1926 1946 1966 1986 1936 1956 1976 1996 2006 Large company stocks  10.4% Government bonds  5.5% Treasury bills  3.7% $3,246 $79 $20 $12 Inflation  3.0%
Regardless of market conditions, here’s what you should do Revisit your financial plan periodically Create a financial plan to guide your decisions Discuss and outline your short- and long-term goals
A 360° view of your financial life A financial plan can: A financial plan is not set in stone  Coordinate all your goals and finances Evaluate where you stand today versus your goals Identify potential insurance needs Assess your cash flow needs Review your investments and asset allocation strategy Address estate planning needs
A financial goal analysis  can help determine the likelihood of reaching your goals What happens if you get  average returns? What happens if you experience bad market conditions? What is your probability of success? Are you in your confidence zone? Important:   The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.  Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return ?% Bad timing ?% ?  Confidence zone Probability of success  ?%
Meet Michael and  Susan Clark  (They do not yet have a financial plan) Case study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Here’s what we found—Michael and Susan are likely to fall short of reaching their goals Current scenario Ideal age Michael  62 Susan  62 Ideal amount total spending  for life of plan $5,130,791 Current savings $20,250 this year Current: $1,493,000 65% Stock Return 7.55% Risk 11.08% Important:   The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.  Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return 95% Bad timing 75% Below confidence zone   (85% – 99%)  Probability of success   <40%
Max aggressive: $1,493,000 67% Stock Return 7.47% Risk 10.42% Savings $45,250  this year Total spending for life of plan $4,275,840 Michael 64 Susan 64 2%  more stock Increased $25,000 Reduced  17% Michael & Susan retire 2 years later What Susan and Michael could do to improve their probability of success What if scenario 1 –  All values are within your acceptable range Results Suggested changes Investments Savings Goals Retirement  age  Important:   The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.  Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return 100% Bad timing 100% In confidence zone   (85% – 99%)  Probability of success   87%
The power of financial planning:  using a wide range of potential returns $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 $12,000,000 $2,000,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Safety Margin $14,476,008 $6,020,937 $4,161,962 Ran out of money $138,153 Sample of 100 Trials All trials Average return Bad timing Michael retires Susan retires Michael’s plan ends Susan’s plan ends Important:   The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.
We can help you shape your future Your financial goals   Grow your wealth now and into the future Grow your assets Access your funds when  and where you need to  Manage your cash flow Take on new opportunities  and enjoy life to the fullest Maintain your lifestyle Safeguard what you’ve  worked so hard to build Protect what you’ve achieved Do your best for the people and causes  you care  about Care for others
Once we present your financial plan,  our team of specialists will support your wealth planning needs   You Your Financial Advisor can draw on a team of specialists Your Financial Advisor Retirement services Asset management Brokerage services Estate planning Financing Cash management Insurance
What’s next?  
Create a plan for your future
Results using Monte Carlo—probability of success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Important considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Financial Planning Helps Weather Bear Markets

  • 2. A global leader focused on you   Global presence The world’s leading wealth manager Wealth management focus Wealth management is our core business Historical perspective 140-year tradition serving individuals and families in Europe and the U.S. UBS Financial strength Well-capitalized bank with strong credit rating Source Company second-quarter earnings reports for 2008.
  • 3.
  • 4. Financial planning helps weather any market Conversations with UBS
  • 5. So, what is happening in the markets? The S&P is down by 41% at its lowest point through October 31 Global equity markets have performed even worse Fixed income provides no refuge Investors are fleeing to cash positions
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. Historically, markets recover from crises Source: Underlying data is from the Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation® (SBBI ® ) Yearbook , by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex Sinquefield, updated annually. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $1 invested at the beginning of 1926. Assumes reinvestment of income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. © 2008 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. 3/1/2008 Large stocks are represented by the Standard & Poor’s 500 ® , which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the stock market in general. Government bonds are represented by the 20-year U.S. government bond, Treasury bills by the 30-day U.S. Treasury bill, and inflation by the Consumer Price Index. Underlying data is from the Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation ® (SBBI ® ) Yearbook , by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex Sinquefield, updated annually. Stocks represent ownership in a corporation, while bonds, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. Small company stocks are generally more volatile than large company stocks. Government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while corporate bonds are not guaranteed. Compound annual return 1926 – 2007: Great Depression WWII 1970s Oil Crisis 1987 Crash Dot com and 9/11 Sept 1929- June 1932 Jan 1973- Oct 1974 Oct 1939- Dec 1941 Oct 5– Oct 19 1987 March 2000– Oct 2002 0.10 1 10 100 $10,000 1,000 1926 1946 1966 1986 1936 1956 1976 1996 2006 Large company stocks 10.4% Government bonds 5.5% Treasury bills 3.7% $3,246 $79 $20 $12 Inflation 3.0%
  • 11. Regardless of market conditions, here’s what you should do Revisit your financial plan periodically Create a financial plan to guide your decisions Discuss and outline your short- and long-term goals
  • 12. A 360° view of your financial life A financial plan can: A financial plan is not set in stone Coordinate all your goals and finances Evaluate where you stand today versus your goals Identify potential insurance needs Assess your cash flow needs Review your investments and asset allocation strategy Address estate planning needs
  • 13. A financial goal analysis can help determine the likelihood of reaching your goals What happens if you get average returns? What happens if you experience bad market conditions? What is your probability of success? Are you in your confidence zone? Important: The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return ?% Bad timing ?% ? Confidence zone Probability of success ?%
  • 14.
  • 15. Here’s what we found—Michael and Susan are likely to fall short of reaching their goals Current scenario Ideal age Michael 62 Susan 62 Ideal amount total spending for life of plan $5,130,791 Current savings $20,250 this year Current: $1,493,000 65% Stock Return 7.55% Risk 11.08% Important: The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return 95% Bad timing 75% Below confidence zone (85% – 99%) Probability of success <40%
  • 16. Max aggressive: $1,493,000 67% Stock Return 7.47% Risk 10.42% Savings $45,250 this year Total spending for life of plan $4,275,840 Michael 64 Susan 64 2% more stock Increased $25,000 Reduced 17% Michael & Susan retire 2 years later What Susan and Michael could do to improve their probability of success What if scenario 1 – All values are within your acceptable range Results Suggested changes Investments Savings Goals Retirement age Important: The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Likelihood of funding all goals Estimated % of goals funded Average return 100% Bad timing 100% In confidence zone (85% – 99%) Probability of success 87%
  • 17. The power of financial planning: using a wide range of potential returns $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $0 $12,000,000 $2,000,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Safety Margin $14,476,008 $6,020,937 $4,161,962 Ran out of money $138,153 Sample of 100 Trials All trials Average return Bad timing Michael retires Susan retires Michael’s plan ends Susan’s plan ends Important: The projections or other information generated by FGA regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results.
  • 18. We can help you shape your future Your financial goals   Grow your wealth now and into the future Grow your assets Access your funds when and where you need to Manage your cash flow Take on new opportunities and enjoy life to the fullest Maintain your lifestyle Safeguard what you’ve worked so hard to build Protect what you’ve achieved Do your best for the people and causes you care about Care for others
  • 19. Once we present your financial plan, our team of specialists will support your wealth planning needs   You Your Financial Advisor can draw on a team of specialists Your Financial Advisor Retirement services Asset management Brokerage services Estate planning Financing Cash management Insurance
  • 21. Create a plan for your future
  • 22.
  • 23.

Notas del editor

  1. As people gather at event: Ask attendees to fill out cards at each table with basic contact information so that you (the Financial Advisor) can follow up – name, address, best contact phone, best contact time. Advise all attendees to also fill out the Goals Worksheets at each table, which will get them thinking about their concerns for today and the future.