Dr. Katsuhide Nagayama, JICA Team Leader, JICA Project Team

1. 1
Dr. Katsuhide NAGAYAMA,
Leader, JICA Project Team
UTPUB
Urban Transport Planning for
Ulaanbaatar
UTPUB
The UB-Metro
toward a World Competitive City - Ulaanbaatar
BCM Monthly Assembly
28th January, 2013

2. Contents
2
1. Metro Project for Sustainable
Ulaanbaatar Transport System
2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar Metro
3. Implementation Scheme and
Economic/Financial Feasibilities

3. 3
Ulaanbaatar City Master Plan 2030
Zoning andTransportation Network
1.1 Compact City Concept proposed in JICA-UBMPS conducted in 2010

4. Renewal of CBD
Sub-centerSub-center
Sub-center
NewTown
NewTown
4
4-1 Transit-driven Urban Development System in Ulaanbaatar
1.2 A Vision on Ulaanbaatar Transit System Development
(Proposed in JICA-UBMPS)
Source: UBMPS, JICA, 2009

5. 1.3 Baseline Scenario 2030 (Do Nothing)
Case of future transport demands on existing network
5
LEGEND :
Traffic Flow
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)
Performance of Total Transport Network
 Major transport corridors will be
fatally congested.
 Innovative restructuring of the
transport network should be done.
2010 2030 2030/10
Demand
(000/d)
No. of Trips 2,079 4,259 2.0
Prs・Hours 1,098 11,203 10.2
Congestion Rate
(V/C)
0.41 1.49 -
TotalTransport Cost
(Million US$/day)
1.9 26.5 14.2
LEGEND :
Traffic Flow
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)
混雑度

6. LEGEND :
Traffic Flow
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)
1.4 Recommended Scenario 2030:
Integrated Mass-transit System
6
Proposed Mass-transits
Metro
BRT 1
BRT 2
BRT 3
LEGEND :
Traffic Flow
( Mode: + 1 + 2 + 3 )
VCR<1.00
VCR<1.20
VCR<1.50
1.50<VCR
scale: 1mm =50000(pcu)
Congestion Level
Great improvement will be realized, but
congestions will still remain, thereby,
further strengthening:
 Road network
 Mass-transits
Performance of Total Transport Network
2010 2030 2030/10
Demand
(000/d)
No. of Trips 2,079 4,259 2.0
Prs・Hours 1,098 9,556 8.7
Congestion Rate
(V/C)
0.41 0.82 -
TotalTransport Cost
(Million US$/day)
1.9 24.5 12.5

7. 1.5 Proposed Structure of :
Integrated Development with Mass Transits and Urban Sub-centers
7
◄ Service Improvement for►
 Competitive public transport;
 Traffic Demand Management (TDM) for
individual modes
 Non-motorized modes (pedestrians &
bicycles)
SukhbaatarSapporoTolgoit
Airport
Yarmag
Bayankhoshuu
Chingeltei
Amgalan
To New
Town/Emeelt
Controlled
Growth toward
the East
◄ Transport Infrastructures for ►
 Three (3) East-West Corridors
 One (1) North-South Corridors
 Seven (7) Sub-corridors

8. 6.6 km:
Underground6.2 km: Elevated
4.9 km: Elevated
17.7 km in Total
1.6 Proposed Ulaanbaatar Metro in Phase 1

9. 1.7 Bypass Development Plan for Freight Railway Service
9
 After completion of the
bypass for freight railway,
the UB railway will
provide a metropolitan
commuter rail service
exclusively for passengers.
Tolgoit
Logistic Park
Zuummod
New
International
Airport
Bagakhangai
Agro-Industry
Center
Ulaanbaatar
City Center
Naraikh
To Beijing
To Moscow
Source: Korean F/S Final Report, JICA-UBMPS
Ulaanbaatar Railway
Railway Bypass (planned)
Access Road to New Airport

10. 1.8 A Concept of Inter-modal System in the UB Metropolitan Area
10
Domestic
Airport
To Beijin
To Moscow
Ulaanbaatar Rail
(Metropolitan
Commuter Rail)
UB Metro
East-West Line
BRT/LRT
North-South Line
BRT City Ring
Inter-modal Station
Inter-modal Terminal
Regional Logistic Center
Freight Rail Bypass
(Planned)
New Int’l Airport
Ulaanbaatar
Station
Phase 1-A
Tolgoit Logistic
Center-West
Regional Logistic
Center-East

11. 1.9 Relations between UB-Metro Ridership vs. Fare Rates
11
An Elastic Relation
between Ridership
and Fare
 If the Fare is zero,
about 915,000
passengers would
use the UB Metro
in 2030.
 A proper fare level
should be
determined at the
fare rate that
makes the revenue
maximum.
Distance (Km) Proportional Fare System:
 F = 200 Tg + (K -2) x P
 Revenue Max. at P=60 Tg/km → Average Fare=440Tg.

12. 1.10 Passengers Demand of UB Metro
12
W7 W6 W5 W4 W3 W2 W1 CS E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6
2020
DOWN
UP
W7 W6 W5 W4 W3 W2 W1 CS E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6
150,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
2030
DOWN
UP
Pax per Peak-hour per
Direction (PPHD):10,729
Pax per Peak-hour per Direction
(PPHD):17,767
Sapporo Rotary Stn.
Daily Demand:
2020: 312,000 pax/day; and
2030: 487,000 pax/day

13. Contents
13
1. Metro Project for Sustainable Ulaanbaatar
Transport System
2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar
Metro
3. Implementation Scheme and
Economic/Financial Feasibilities

14. Elevated Railway
integrated with
Urban
Development
(BTS, Bangkok)
2.1 Selection of Suitable Transit Mode
Bus Priority (Critiba, Brazil) Guide Way Bus (Nagoya, Japan)
Mass rapid Transit
(Tokyo, Japan)
Monorail (Tokyo, Japan)
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
0
6050403020100
CAPACITY(Persons/hr/lane)
OPERATING SPEED (km/hr)
BUS
Tramway
MRT
LRT
Monorail
Demand Zone
BRT

15. 15
Central Station & Underground Development
Elevated MRT integrated with Urban Development
2.2 Initial Phase of the East-West Line
The Shield Tunneling Method shall be applied.

16. 2.3 Operation Planning
16
Section 2020 2030
Sapporo Rotary Station - 25th
Pharmacy Station
10,729 17,767
No. of Pax in Peak Hour per Direction（PHPDT） TrainTransport Capacity
Transport Capacity
4 Cars
Train
6 Cars Train
Congestion 100% 618 942
Congestion 150% 826 12,58
Congestion 180% 940 1,428
Service Operation
Section Tolgit － Amgalan
Length About 18 km
Max Speed
100 km/h
(UG Section:80 km/h）
Rolling
Stocks
Train 3M3T
Congestion 180%
Scheduled Time 27 minutes
Scheduled Speed 39.2 km/h
Train Composition
4 Cars 6 Ｃaｒｓ
2020 2030 2020 2030
Operation Heading
in Peak Hour
5 min. 3 min. 8 min. 5 min.
No. of Train 13 20 ８ 13
No. of Rolling
Stocks
52 80 48 78
Comparison ofTrain Operation

17. 17
2.4 Project Time-schedule (Tentative)

18. Contents
18
1. Metro Project for Sustainable Ulaanbaatar
Transport System
2. Technical Profiles of the Ulaanbaatar Metro
3. Implementation Scheme and
Economic/Financial Feasibilities

19. 3.1 Concept of Public Private Partnership (PPP)
19
To ensure public benefits &
interests
To seek efficiency &
financial sustainability
Long-term
Policy
Commit-
ment
Regulation
& Surveill-
ance
Response
to
Disasters
Ownership
of Infra-
structure &
Facilities
Project
Implementa-
tion Plan
Funding Operation &
Manage-
ment
Customer
Service &
Satisfaction
Formulation of Optimal PPP Projects
Responsibility of Public Sector
Ideas and Capabilities of Private Sector

20. 3.2 A Proposed PPP Mechanism
20
The
Infrastructure
Owner
The Service
Operator
SPC
(UB Metro Corporation)
National &
Ulaanbaatar City
Governments
Lease-out Subsidies/
Incentives
Rent for
Infra. Use
Int’l Funds/ ODA ($)
Strategic Partners
Mongolian and Foreign
Investors
US$ 200 Mill.
US$ 1.3 Bill.

21. 21
1. Assumptions
 Operation service start from 2020
 Project Life: 30 years up to 2050
2. Investment Cost
 US$1.5 billion in total,
including engineering and
administrative costs.
3. Benefits
 Savings of Vehicle Operation Cost
(VOC).
 Saving of Travel Time Cost (TTC)
4. Economic IRR
 The UB metro is economically
feasible with 20.6% EIRR.
3.3 Project Feasibility
1. Assumptions
 Evaluation Term: 20 Years
 Inflation: 9.8% - 5.0%
 Annual Rent for Infrastructure: 2 % of
the total investment cost
2. Average Fare
 Option 1=400 Tg.
 Option 2=600 Tg.
3. Funding Scheme
 E/D ratio = 3/7
 Long-term Loan (5 yrs GP; 20 yrs PB; 4%
IR)
4. Feasibility
 Op1: FIRR= 8.8 % → not feasible
 OP2: FIRR= 16.2 % → Feasible enough
Economic Evaluation Cash-flow Analysis of “SPC”

22. 22
 Impact on Real Estate Market →
Building development potentials with a
total of 1,200 ha floor area or US$10.2
billion value market will be materialized
by 2030.
 New Job Opportunities → A number of
156,000 job opportunities will be newly
created, thereby increasing tax revenues
in terms of their income and business
taxes.
 Housing Provision → Approximately
50,000 apartment units will be developed
along with the station development.
Underground Arcade (Japan)
3.4 Economic Impacts in the UB Metro Corridor

23. 23
UTPUB
Thank you for your attention!