Graham Bonnett, Theme Leader, Advancing Agricultural productivity and Environmental Health, CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, presented at the UNAA Victoria Global Food Security & Sustainable Agriculture Seminar held on Tuesday 29 October in Melbourne. Held in support of the United Nations Zero Hunger Challenge, in partnership with NAB and the University of Melbourne, this seminar was part of the UNAA Sustainability Leadership Series and sought to build momentum for collective action on food security and sustainable agriculture post Rio +20. Bringing together experts and practitioners from government, business, civil society, farmers' organisations, research and academia, the seminar sought to provide a platform for shared learning and discussion on Australia's role in addressing the global food security challenge and advancing sustainable agricultural practices. It highlighted the challenges and opportunities that Australian government, businesses, and NGOs face as they contribute to developing and promoting sustainable food supply chains that increase food production, preserve natural resources and fight hunger at the local, national and global level. For more information about this seminar and the UNAA Sustainability Leadeship Series please visit www.unaavictoria.org.au/education-advocacy/masterclasses/

1. Global Food Security & Sustainable
Agriculture: Australia's Role? Challenges and
Opportunities
Graham Bonnett| Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
October 29 2013

2. Outline
• Australian Opportunity
• Challenges
• Some solutions
• International contribution
Graham Bonnett | Page 2

3. Australia’s production
opportunity
Graham Bonnett | Page 3

4. Predicted growth in Agricultural exports
ABARES (2012) Food demand to 2050: Opportunities for Australian Agriculture
Graham Bonnett Page 4

5. A widely held view
Australian agri-exports could rise by 250%
between 2011 and 2050 with a cumulative
value of additional exports of $1.7 trillion
postulated

6. Is it possible?
What have we seen historically?
Graham Bonnett | Page 6

7. The response ‐ Green Revolution 1961‐2000
Population rose 98%
Food production rose 146%
Per capita food production rose 24%
Yields more than doubled
Arable land in use rose only 8%
Arable land per person fell from 0.45 to 0.25 ha
Inputs rose many fold:
– x 7 Nitrogen fertiliser
– x 3 Phosphate fertiliser
– x 2 irrigation water
Keilman (1997) The accuracy of the United Nations World Population Projections
Graham Bonnett | Page 7

8. The challenge ‐ slowdown in productivity
growth in the world’s major crops
Alston et al 2009
Global yield growth rates, percent per year for 1961 to 2007.
Graham Bonnett Page 8

9. Australian broadacre agriculture: 1977‐2008
from Sheng. http://www.farmfoundation.org/news/articlefiles/1725-sheng.pdf

10. Prices declining, herd productivity stagnant
Source: ABS Data

11. So where will the productivity increases come from?
Closing the yield gap
Yield gap
Yield
Increasing potential yield
Reducing inputs
Intensification
Potential
yield
Best
farmer’s /
water
limited
yields
Graham Bonnett Page 11
Average
farmers
yield

12. Closing the yield gap
Graham Bonnett | Page 12

13. What are the current gaps?
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of Y% in the Wimmera in the 2005 season. Each cell value
was derived by expressing Ya as a percent of Yw for each “winter cereal” cell
Hochman et al , Field Crops Research 2012

14. Mike Whelan LESI NZ| Page 14

15. Increasing Potential Yield
Graham Bonnett | Page 15

16. Some recent examples
Saltbush
2011 record QLD wheat yield
Dual purpose crops
GxExM – right genotype in the right environment managed to its potential
Graham Bonnett Page 16

17. Water‐use efficiency in grain crops
Photo: Greg Rebetzke

18. Future productivity?????
Developments in material science
Developments in information and
communications science
Graham Bonnett Page 18

19. Intensification
Graham Bonnett | Page 19

20. Sustainability
Graham Bonnett| Page 20

21. Integrated pest management ‐ pests and
Native plants Crops
beneficials
1.5
Log (predator : pest ratio)
1.0
0.5
0.0
Col 2
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
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ca
lyp
tu
s
p
En
Ac opu
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en
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la
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R
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ha
go uric
M
ai
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re dia
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ic
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wh
ea
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t
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Ba
rle
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ca
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-2.0
Bianchi, Schellhorn and Cunningham, (2013) Agriculture and Forest Entomology
Graham Bonnett| Page 21

22. Australia’s farmers feed around 60
million people each day .....
How can we use Australian innovation
to feed many more?
Graham Bonnett | Page 22

23. Equator
Australia and Africa share many
common agricultural
challenges: limiting soils, highly
variable climates, many common
pests and diseases and similar crops,
pastures and animals in tropical/subtropical farming systems.
|

24. Safe maize for East Africa
•
25% of global agricultural crops are contaminated with
aflatoxins (FAO)
•
4.5 billion people in the developing world are
potentially chronically exposed
•
Aflatoxin contamination ‐ carcinogenic, immune
suppression, liver damage, childhood stunting,
reduced nutrient absorption
•
CSIRO and its international partners are working with
African partners to:
• develop diagnostic screening technology for Africa
• Identify solutions via maize breeding, processing, farm
management and policy.
•
Focused on Kenya and Tanzania currently

25. AusAID‐CSIRO‐BecA Partnership
Development of Improved Control Interventions for
Peste des Petits Ruminants
PPR is a significant pathogen of small
ruminants
International consensus for the need
for progressive control
Project Phase 1 (2010‐2013)
Develop a thermo‐stabilize PPR vaccine
Pilot vaccination models
Proposed Phase 2 (2014‐2017)
Epidemiological research to enhance
targeting of vaccination programs
Expansion of vaccination pilots to address
expanded epidemiological goals

26. Summary
• Significantly more and different food will be required
• Increased productivity a major component
• Evidence that rate of increase slowing
• Challenge for research is to explore new ways of
increasing productivity
• Some potential for intensification
• Maintaining environmental health essential
• Australia has environmental similarities to much of the
developing world
• Challenge is to adapt and innovate for effective solutions
Graham Bonnett| Page 26

27. Thank you
GrahamBonnett@csiro.au