Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch Presentation

1. BAPPENAS Launch EventPeluncuran1 October 2012 / 1 Oktober 2012 Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

2. Ir. Wismana AdiSuryabrataDeputy Minister for Development Funding,Bappenas Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

3. Prof. Dr. Armida S.AlisjahbanaMinister of National DevelopmentPlanning Agency / Head of Bappenas Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

4. Mr. El-MostafaBenlamlihUnited Nations Resident Coordinator Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

5. Robert KirkpatrickDirector, UN Global Pulse Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

6. HARNESSING THE POWER OF BIG DATA FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Robert Kirkpatrick

7. HyperconnectivityAirplane Flights Telephone CallsInternet Traffic Social Networking Real-time isn’t just faster. It’s different.

8. 20th-Century tools…

9. Welcome to the age of BIG DATAVolume. Velocity. Variety….

10. Phoenician alphabet invented ca. 1000 B.C.E.

11. 955 million users

12. 400 million tweets per day…. or, 4600 per second

13. 400 million tweets = 7 terabytes of data… …..or120,000 file cabinets full of paper

14. If social networks were countries…1.3 billion 1.2 billion 955 million ~500 million 309 million 238 million

15. Jakarta - 9 million tweets every day

16. PRIVATE SECTOR Monitor operations…in real time Track market trends…in real timeGet customer feedback…in real time GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT Unemployment? Food Security? Public Health? Education? Migration? Disaster Relief?

17. BIG DATA IN REAL TIME: OPPORTUNITIES1.  Better early warning: Faster detection of anomalies in at the onset of a crisis allows rapid, effective, efficient response.2.  Real-time awareness: A more accurate and up-to- date picture of population needs and concerns informs better design of programs and policies;3.  Real-time feedback: Understand sooner where programs and policies are NOT working and make rapid, adaptive adjustments until progress is on track.

18. BIG DATA, PRIVACY, AND HUMAN RIGHTSGlobal Pulse privacy guidelines: •  Never analyze personally identifiable data Never analyze confidential data •  Never seek to re-identify individuals

19. EXAMPLE: AIRTIME CREDIT PURCHASE DATA

20. SIZE AND FREQUENCY PREDICT HOUSEHOLD INCOME Higher household income Average size of purchase Lower household income Average # of purchases / month

21. CALLING PATTERNS AND ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY Lower Highersocioeconomic level socioeconomic level

22. MEN AND WOMEN USE THEIR PHONES DIFFERENTLYMen: Women:•  Fewer calls •  More calls•  Shorter calls •  Longer calls•  Smaller social network •  Larger social network•  More work-related calls •  More personal calls

23. Mobile phone locations predict cholera outbreaks

24. Using mobile phone movement to assess H1N1 response

25. TWITTER PREDICTS H1N1 INFLUENZA

26. GOOGLE SEARCHES FOR SYMPTOMS PREDICT DENGUE

27. RECENT SEARCHES FOR JOBS, COMMODITY PRICES

28. GLOBAL PULSE 2011THREE PROOF OFCONCEPT PROJECTS

29. Tracking Commodity Pricesthrough Online RetailAdvertising

30. Generating Real-Time Inflation Indices1 2 3 4 5Use1scraping1 Connect1to1 Find1individual1 Store1key1item1 Calculate1technology online1retailers items informa-on1in1 PriceStats1 a1database Indexes • Date • Item • Price • Descrip-on

31. ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHILECOLOMBIA URUGUAY VENEZUELA

32. URUGUAY Uruguay Bread Index (daily data) Uruguay Bread & Cereals CPI (monthly data)

33. Online Discussions & Unemployment Ireland

34. Online Discussions & Unemployment United States

35. Tweets per day about food,during Ramadan in Indonesia Start of Ramadan End of Ramadan

36. Tweets predict food basket inflation (rice, chilies, fish, sugar, corn, cooking oil)Tweets about theprice of rice(per month)OfficialFood Price Inflation(monthly from 25 cities)

37. ABOUTGLOBAL PULSE

38. Dynamic Development?

39. Data Philanthropy?

40. PULSE LABSR&D INNOVATION STRATEGY 1.  Partner with governments to establish Pulse Labs around the world. 2.  Build world-class teams of data scientists, engineers, and policy experts 3.  Partner with private sector for access to real-time data and cutting edge technology 4.  Design and conduct exploratory research 5.  Build an open source toolkit for real-time monitoring 6.  Support broad adoption of useful innovations 7.  Share everything we learn and build

41. Pulse Lab NetworkPulse Lab Jakarta…………October 2012Pulse Lab Kampala……….January 2013Other locations…………...???

42. Dr. LukitaDinarsyah TuwoVice Minister of National DevelopmentPlanning Agency / Bappenas Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

43. Initial Research Findingsfrom Pulse Lab Jakarta Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

44. Indonesia & Social Media Indonesia 5th in worldwide Twitter users & volume 90% of Indonesian Internet users are on Facebook 10-25% of Indonesian regularly access Internet, including via Internet cafes and mobile devices Language barriers, local slang and Indonesia-specific sites present new challenges for social media analytics.Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

45. Pulse Lab JakartaAn innovation lab for real-time, Big Data analysis Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

46. Research Agenda2012-2013 Regions of focus: •  Jakarta •  Jogja •  Makassar (South Sulawesi) •  Medan (North Sumatera) Topic of focus: •  Changes in social welfare, especailly as related to food prices, fuel prices (transport and cooking) and employmentSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

47. Research Agenda2012-2013 Approaches for Exploration: •  Social Media & Twitter Analysis •  Mobile CDR Analysis •  Rapid Mobile SurveysSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

48. Research Questions2012-2013 How are these topics discussed on Social Media? •  Which social media sources? •  How much relevant conversation is there? How can we monitor how they affect Indonesians? •  Which analytical approaches? •  Which technological capabilities?Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

49. Pre-Launch Research TopicsInitial Exploration 1 Food Prices •  Staple foods (sembako), rice (beras), sugar (gula), eggs (telur) 2 Fuel Prices •  Vehicle fuel (bensin), oil fuel (BBM), LPG (elpiji) 3 Unemployment •  Unemployed (pengangguran), severance pay (pesangon)Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

50. Proof of Concept ResearchInitial Exploration 101001 001001 Data Sources 001110 •  Sources: Twitter, Facebook, Blogs, News… 010011 •  Real-time data + 2-year historical archive Analytical Approaches •  Identify trending topics in online conversation •  Assess mood and sentiment for those topics Results •  Correlate with official data sources (CPI, unemployment) •  Visualize trends & map the resultsSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

51. Research Tool 1Crimson Hexagon: ForSight Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

52. Research Tool 2SAS Social Media Analytics and SAS Text Miner Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

53. The Signals Are Getting Stronger è Big increase in volume of relevant conversations over 18 months 40000 35000 minyak (oil) ketahanan pangan (food security) 30000 budidaya (cul>va>on) 25000 telur (eggs) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Indonesians are increasingly using social media to discuss basic needsSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

54. So Are the Temporal Correlations è Listening to social conversations provides insight on official data 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -‐0.5 -‐1 -‐1.5 Social Media Food Index -‐2 BAPPENAS Food Price Index -‐2.5 Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

55. Overview of Preliminary Findings Food prices influenced by global events 1 •  Global soy bean shortage •  Rising prices in Indonesia •  Online complaints about affording food •  New tool to detect impact faster? 2 Fuel prices affected by government policy •  Cuts in subsidies => price rise •  Social outcry - worry, uncertainty, anger •  New tool to estimate vulnerability? 3 Social media predicts official statistics •  New tool to derive price index?Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

56. The Way Forward Building up Pulse Lab capabilities:•  Build interdisciplinary R&D team that consists of Government, private sector, academia, NGOs and development partners.•  Develop a framework for ensuring data privacyDeveloping Partnerships:•  Secure access to new sources of real-time data, particularly with mobile carriers.•  Secure access to state-of-the-art technology for analysis•  Translate analysis technologies into Bahasa and other local languages•  Collaborate with BIG and CSIRO on geo-location projects.Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

57. Next Steps •  Through key partnerships and projects, continue to explore the usefulness of new digital data sources and new analytical tools. •  After gaining 2 years’ of experience with the Pulse Lab approach, assess whether this approach can contribute usefully to improvements in social protection, early warning, and Government Development PlanningSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

58. Dr. ViviYulaswati, MSCDirector of Social Protection and Welfare /Bappenas

59. Social Media Research:Methods and Preliminary Results

60. OUTLINE 1. Mining Social Media: Topics & Research Questions 2. Research Tools & Results •  Crimson Hexagon •  SAS 3. DiscussionSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

61. TOPICS FOR EXPLORATION 1. Food Prices staple food (sembako), rice (beras), sugar (gula), eggs (telur) 2. Fuel Prices vehicle fuel (bensin), oil fuel (BBM), LPG (elpiji)Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

62. BIG QUESTIONS •  How are food and fuel prices in Indonesia being discussed on Social Media? •  How can we monitor how they affect Indonesians? •  Can social media serve as a real-time approximation of official statistics?Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

63. OUTLINE 1. Mining Social Media: Topics & Research Questions 2. Research Tools & Results •  Crimson Hexagon •  SAS 3. DiscussionSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

64. Crimson Hexagon: MethodsStep 1 Human Training Select Choose Deﬁne Label Data Sources Keywords Categories Examples beras Posi>ve OR telur OR gula Neutral I love when mrice cooks If tofu p um eggs instead of tempeh… goes higher, I can’t Hope prices rmore ore! aﬀord any ise m :( Nega>ve Irrelevant èHuman labels a few examples to teach machine.

65. Crimson Hexagon: MethodsStep 2 Machine Classiﬁca9on Consume Match Detect Examine Data Sources Keywords Categories Results beras Posi>ve +4% OR telur OR gula Neutral -‐1% Nega>ve +3% Irrelevant -‐1% èMachine analyzes millions of tweets automa>cally.

66. Food Prices: Global Influence 23 July 25 -‐ 27 July Global soy bean price hike. Indonesian DPR urges government produc>on of tempe and tofu cut back. to reduce soy bean import duty and give subsidy. 10-‐22 July: Not many men>ons of ‘tempe’ and ‘tahu’ 10 July – 2 August 2012 Global soy bean shortage. 23 -‐ 28 July ‘tahu’ and ‘tempe’ become Spikes of comments on tempe and tofu hot topics in Bahasa tweets

67. Food Prices: Example Tweets “nyokap ngomel-‐ngomel harga tempe tahu naik :D” “Harga Kedelai Naik, Sbecause the tdit, buruan nonton sp :D” tar “udeh.. kebanyakan emes>nya u emerintah Bprice’s u ono n “mom’s grumbling ngomong l P empe tahu eri Subsidi” “Harga tempe hprice kedelai nkenapa k-‐ Nega9ve subsidy” ise (Jul 26, 2012) “Soy bean arga hise, Govt. supposed to gmpor?, rice r keburu naik.., r mmm, aik lagi...” -‐ edelai i ive to pmemangnya tanah Indonesia ga isubur ud-‐-‐ Atnnouncement with no t en9ment (Jul 2bean “disaat harga tyou tntuk empe nuch, alhamdulillah mama msoy 8, 2012) “stop t.. ahu alked edelai? #curhatpenggemartempe” an ktoo m aik, go watch i s before the asih bikin price up up.., hmmm, why w t price’s again...” “Tempe ahu dan tempe balado :D” e import soy bean?, is Indonesian land inferCle to his tofu and tempe price hike, thanks God mom sCll can 6, 2012) “during t plant soy? #tempe-‐lover’s-‐vent-‐out” no emo9on (Jul 2 -‐-‐ Realize price rise, cook spicy tahu and tempe :Confused reac>on to price rise (Jul 28, 2012) -‐-‐ D“ -‐-‐ Posi9ve/unaﬀected by price rise (Jul 30, 2012) 10 July – 2 August 2012 Global soy bean shortage. ‘tahu’ and ‘tempe’ become hot topics in Bahasa tweets

68. Food Prices: Crisis Passes 23 July -‐ 2 Aug ‘tempe’ and ‘tahu’ hot debate 14 -‐ 21 Aug Ramadhan / Idul Fitri 10 July – 25 August 2012 Ramadhan / Idul Fitri Food men>ons not as high as during ‘tempe’ & ‘tahu’ crisis

69. Food Prices: The Next Topic “Tempe tahu udh naik harga, skrng daging menyusul +_+“ “Tempe tahu price has hiked, now meat follows +_+ ” -‐-‐ Aug 16, 2012 “Dedek jgn keseringan minta dibua>n mie telor ya. harga sembako “Langsung belanja, harga daging naik ! mentok sekilo 30rb. #lol “ naik. mamah susah.” “Let’s go shopping now, meat price hike! It reached Rp 30.000 per “LiFle kid, please don’t ask to cook noodle egg too oGen. The kg. #lol ” staple food price’s hiking. Mom’s troubled.” -‐-‐ Aug 14, 2012 -‐-‐ Aug 16, 2012 14 -‐ 21 August ‘daging’ (meat) and ‘sembako’ (staple food) become main topics

70. Food Prices: Social vs Official Spikes in social media conversa>ons about food prices… 2 … are reﬂected in 1.5 CPI, % change inﬂa>on sta>s>cs 1 measured by govt. 0.5 0 -‐0.5 February March April May June July August -‐1

71. Fuel Prices: Local Event “BBM naik , harga makanan juga naik x_x “ “Fuel price has hiked, now food follows x_x ” -‐-‐ Mar 27, 2012 “Waduh bbm naik harga makanan naik saya bs agak kurusan ntar” “Whoa.. Fuel price rise, the food price rise, then I will become “Bagi rakyat kecil bkn masalah u/ mngurangi pnggunaan BBM, tp slimmer” efek domino dr knaikan BBM (harga pangan, trnsportasi umum -‐-‐ Mar 26, 2012 naik) yg memberatkan” “For poor, reducing fuel usage is not the problem, but the domino eﬀects of fuel price rise (food, public transportaCon price rise) is” -‐-‐ ” Mar 30, 2012 18 March – 7 April Fuel subsidy cut plan and protests: ‘bbm’, ‘makanan’ & ‘sembako’ trending topics

72. Fuel Prices: Timeline 27 Mar: Massive protests against fuel price rise in Jakarta. 25 Mar: Some DPR members agree to increase fuel price. Protests began 31 Mar: Govt. several days before. announces it 22 Feb: News of government plan to will restore increase subsidized fuel price subsidies. Few men>ons of “Fuel” on Twiner 15 Feb – 15 April 2012 Government plan to reduce fuel subsidies triggered protests

73. Comparing Crises Tweets about food 18 Mar -‐ 7 Apr 23 July -‐ 2 Aug Fuel subsidy cut plan and ‘tempe’ and ‘tahu’ hot debate protests against it

74. Social Protection Programs ‘Social Protec>on Program’ – men>ons gepng higher over >me, esp. near Jakarta Governor elec>on 11 July ‘12: 20 September ‘12: Jakarta governor elec>on, Jakarta governor elec>on, 1st round 2nd round

75. OUTLINE 1. Mining Social Media: Topics & Research Questions 2. Research Tools & Results •  Crimson Hexagon •  SAS 3. DiscussionSource:

76. SAS Analytic Workflow1) Over 200,000 new 5) Explore results and correlate 3) Capture sen>ment with official sta>s>cs to official Indonesian language and mood for Bahasa BPS sta>s>cs : Consumer Price documents per day Index (CPI) for 12 common foods Global Pulse Sen>ment, Topic & Internet Relevance Mood & Geography Interac>ve Conversa>on Filter Influence Categories Dashboard 2) Extract conversa>ons 4) Detect loca>on, price, about rice, cooking oil, availability, specific fuel, employment, etc. govt. programs, etc. anxious, confident, confused, hos>le, sad, happy (-”-) ;-) ((+_+)) :@ :( :)

77. hnp://youtube.com/watch?v=MK-‐aHVfQ3BI

78. Indonesian Data Densityè Data density across archipelagos of Indonesia

79. The signals are growing strongerèBig increase in volume of relevant conversations over 18 months 40000 35000 minyak (oil) ketahanan pangan (food security) 30000 budidaya (cul>va>on) 25000 telur (eggs) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Indonesians are increasingly using social media to discuss basic needs

80. BSo are the temporal correlationsèListening to social conversations provides insight on official data 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -‐0.5 -‐1 -‐1.5 Social Media Food Index Social edia Food Index -‐2 BPS Food PFood ndex I ndex BAPPENAS rice I Price -‐2.5

81. Linear Regression Analysis Social Media Topics BAPPENAS Sta>s>cs 0.9% Agricultural Cul9va9on (budidaya pertanian) Eggs -‐0.5% (telur) Food Security = 0.89 Inﬂa>on (CPI) 0.1% (ketahanan pangan) Cooking Oil -‐0.1% (minyak goreng) Regression Weights Correla9on Coeﬃcient The predic>ve power of 0 = no rela>onship each conversa>on topic 1 = perfect correla>on

82. OUTLINE 1. Mining Social Media: Topics & Research Questions 2. Research Tools & Results •  Crimson Hexagon •  SAS 3. DiscussionSource:

83. ADVANTAGES •  Real-time detection of trends to understand community concerns & coping mechanisms •  Detect quick response to social protection plans and policies •  Augment and complement official statistics with real time indicatorsSource:

84. CAVEATS •  Current social media users do not represent the entire population => can’t measure direct response to poverty issues •  Twitter content good for immediate, short-term trends => does not capture long-term aspirations and intentions •  Machine classification methodologies need human supervision => are not able to deal with sarcasm, and complex human communications •  Correlation ≠ Causation •  Noise, rumors & reliabilitySource:

85. NEXT STEPS New applications –  health –  natural disasters –  intention to migrate New datasets –  additional social media sources –  mobile phone call detail records (CDRs) New research projects ready to start –  UNICEF (child welfare and education) –  ILO (female labor condition and employment access)Source:

86. OktorialdiMA, PhDHead of PUSDATIN, Bappenas Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

87. Pulse Lab Operations &Roadmap Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

88. Innovation LifecyclePhase 1 – Research PHASE 1 – Research Phase Carry out a series of “Proof of Concept” projects exploring the utility of various sources of new digital data: •  Exploratory research on social media, mobile data (CDRs) and other relevant sources •  Development or adaptation of technology tools for analysis •  Conduct analysis of historical data, and compare against official statistics, to look for correlations and proxy indicators •  Publication and sharing of findingsSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

89. Innovation LifecyclePhase 2 – Prototype PHASE 2 – Prototype Phase If Proof-of-Concept phase proves that there are useful insights within the new data source, built prototypes for real-time monitoring: •  Obtain sustainable access to digital data source in real- time •  Develop technology prototype for ongoing analysis •  Sample from 4 cities: Medan, Jakarta, Jogjakarta, MakassarSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

90. Innovation LifecyclePhase 3 – Implementation PHASE 3 – Use of Data in Real-Time Decision Making and Planning If prototypes are useful to the work of line ministries and programme planning, mainstream and operationalize the technique and the tools: •  Mainstreaming use of new indicator/data source •  Expand to larger-scale operational data analysis after a year •  Operationalize data monitoring software, hardware and human expertiseSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

91. YEAR 1 ROADMAP(2012 – 2013) ² Move to permanent Lab space ² Series of Proof-of-Concept research projects and prototypes ² Forge new partnerships around data, technology and expertise ² Development of legal and data privacy frameworks ² Organize workshops & meet-ups on Big Data for Development ² Knowledge sharing & publication of findings from research projectsSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

92. Work with Pulse Lab JakartaResearch Project Partners •  Explore and test new digital data sources that could contribute to real time program monitoring, or complement an existing monitoring system. •  Test data sources that could serve as proxy development indicators.Source: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

93. Partner with Pulse Lab JakartaInnovation Partners •  Data Sharing Partners •  Research Partners •  Technology Partners •  Host a Training Session •  Academic Fellowships •  Funding SupportSource: Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

94. Q&A Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

95. InnovationShowcaseCSIRO SAS InternationalMercy Corps Microsoft LIFENokia Life PoliticaWave Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

96. BAPPENAS Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012

97. Thank You! Pulse Lab Jakarta Launch / Jakarta, Indonesia / 1 October 2012