Market Outlook

TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS “ BEARS ON PLAY” (February 9, 2010)

MARKET OUTLOOK (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

TR BOND (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RECOMMENDATIONS CONVICTION LEVEL (as of February 9, 2010) BUY SELL BUY BUY SELL SELL RECOM. BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY RECOM. 75/100 (+) 30 - 40 % 80/100 0.5 – 1.0 % USDYTL 70/100 (-) 7 - 10 % 80/100 5.0 – 7.0 % TUPRS 85/100 (+) 25 - 35 % 85/100 2.0 – 3.0 % THYAO 85/100 (+) 10 - 15 % 80/100 5.0 – 6.0 % PETKM 75/100 (-) 5 -10 % 80/100 3.0 – 4.0 % BIMAS 80/100 (-) 10 - 15 % 80/100 3.0 - 3.5 % XU100 Conviction level Medium term target Conviction level Short term target

MARKET VIEW (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Our propre priority momentum indicator eases market trend analysis notably

MARKET VIEW (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 2

MARKET VIEW (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

MARKET VIEW (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE SUMMARY (as of Feb. 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE (daily ) Cumulative yield for a given period * See last pages for details 148% Relative -34% 36.051 54.708 XU100 114% 213.614 TRL 100.000 TRL Net 2.388 TRL 0,3% Commi. 36 Transa. 116% 216.002 TRL 100.000 TRL System days 273 01.10.08 02.01.08 Period 100.000 TRL Capital

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 daily (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: VIX030 hourly (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: TUPRS (Short Term View – BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: TUPRS (Long Term View - SELL) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: BIMAS (Short Term View – BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: BIMAS (Long Term View - SELL) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: PETKM (Short Term View – BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: PETKM (Long Term View - BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: THYAO (Short Term View – BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

HISTORIC PERFORMANCE: THYAO (Long Term View - BUY) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1

BalticDRY vs ISE INDUSTRIALS (as of February 9, 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Indexes are strongly correlated: R^2=0.82

RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (quarterly) Sample selected from high volume equities -%9 TTKOM %423 KOZAA %285 ARCLK %50 EREGL %98 GUBRF %35 BAGFS %34 ISCTR %264 %34 VAKBN %38 YKBNK %54 AKBNK %17 KCHOL -%15 GARAN %438 -%14 THYAO %97 -%34 %3 -%11 -%42 XU100 %5 PETKM %43 IHEVA -%24 ASYAB -% 9 EREGL %9 -%14 TUPRS %5 -%13 TCELL 2009 2008 (Q4) 2008 (Q3) 2008 (Q2) 2008 (Q1)

RECOMMENDATIONS PERFORMANCE TABLE (daily) Transactions table 90 158 62% 12.564 32.564 6,35 29.09.08 20.000 3,90 01.07.08 5.128 AKBNK 30 168 79% 16.000 36.000 90,00 09.07.08 20.000 50,00 09.06.08 400 FENER 32 131 18% 3.647 23.647 4,02 06.06.08 20.000 3,40 05.05.08 5.882 VESBE 16 147 44% 8.923 28.923 9,40 24.04.08 20.000 6,50 08.04.08 3.077 GUBRF 38 170 82% 16.500 36.500 1,46 24.04.08 20.000 0,80 17.03.08 25.000 GSDHO 24 181 101% 20.397 40.397 6,10 10.03.08 20.000 3,02 15.02.08 6.623 GUBRF 10 134 23% 4.816 24.816 3,04 21.02.08 20.000 2,45 11.02.08 8.163 OZGYO 3 128 13% 2.695 22.695 8,00 14.02.08 20.000 7,05 11.02.08 2.837 HALKB 11 125 8% 1.642 21.642 1,45 19.02.08 20.000 1,34 08.02.08 14.925 THYAO 7 130 16% 3.415 23.415 4,80 15.02.08 20.000 4,10 08.02.08 4.878 GARAN 19 134 23% 4.789 24.789 4,40 27.02.08 20.000 3,55 08.02.08 5.634 ASYAB 5 125 8% 1.702 21.702 7,65 05.02.08 20.000 7,05 31.01.08 2.837 THYAO 8 134 23% 4.793 24.793 3,00 30.01.08 20.000 2,42 22.01.08 8.264 OZGYO 13 125 8% 1.746 21.746 6,85 04.02.08 20.000 6,30 22.01.08 3.175 AKBNK 3 128 12% 2.581 22.581 10,50 25.01.08 20.000 9,30 22.01.08 2.151 TCELL 4 126 9% 1.860 21.860 35,25 11.01.08 20.000 32,25 07.01.08 620 TUPRS 8 144 39% 7.931 27.931 3,24 10.01.08 20.000 2,32 02.01.08 8.621 GUBRF day 0,3% % P/L cost sell date cost buy date lot

CONTACT DETAILS Cem Şengezer Technical & Quantitative Analyst System Developer GSM: 0532 382 85 92 E-mail: cem.sengezer@gmail.com

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